Cnotes 2016 NFL Sept. Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

Bengals dominate Dolphins, 'under' hits
September 29, 2016


CINCINNATI (AP) For most of the game, A.J. Green piled up more yards than the entire Miami Dolphins offense in a virtuoso performance. As an encore, he thrilled the crowd by juggling some Florida citrus.


The Bengals receiver followed his disappointing game with a dominating one - 173 yards and a touchdown - and a Cincinnati defense that was inspired by Vontaze Burfict's return clamped down on the Dolphins for a 22-7 victory Thursday night.


The Bengals (2-2) rebounded from a 29-17 home loss to Denver on Sunday with a solid all-around game against a depleted team.


Green led the way, beating the Dolphins (1-3) on every type of route . He was upset with himself after he dropped a pivotal third-down pass and failed to make an impact against the Broncos.


''I hold myself to a very high standard,'' said Green, who had 10 catches. ''I know what I'm capable of. Last week I didn't perform to that level. I had to refocus on a short week.''


During the first three quarters, Green had 166 yards on catches while Miami had 152 total yards. The Bengals' season-long problem of stalling out near the goal line forced them to settle for Mike Nugent's season-high five field goals.


Afterward, Green and Andy Dalton appeared on the postgame show, and the receiver entertained the dozens of Bengals fans who stayed around by smoothly juggling three oranges at the interview desk.


''Any time he was one-on-one, he was able to make the play,'' Dalton said.


The Dolphins were missing four starting offensive linemen, two linebackers, running back Arian Foster and tight end Jordan Cameron. They had one big play - Ryan Tannehill threw a 74-yard touchdown pass to Kenny Stills - but couldn't do anything else on offense.


''We've got to get it fixed and quick, and by that I mean Monday,'' Tannehill said. ''We're kind of in a dark spot right now. It's squarely on our shoulders.''


The Bengals' defense expected to get a lift from Burfict's return. The volatile linebacker was suspended by the NFL for the first three games because of his illegal hits. He got a loud ovation when he ran onto the field during introductions wearing a baseball cap. Burfict knocked down a pass and had three tackles.


''He's amazing,'' end Carlos Dunlap said. ''Did you see the plays he made? Those aren't plays you can coach. He came off his couch and played great. It's good to have him back.''


Mostly, it was Green's show. He caught a 51-yard pass off Dalton's scramble in the first half, and had a 43-yard catch that set up another field goal in the third quarter for a 19-7 lead.


REMEMBERING FERNANDEZ


A large fan banner in the upper deck at Paul Brown Stadium honored Miami Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez, who died with two friends in a boat crash early Sunday near Miami Beach. The banner read: ''Jose 16 Heaven's Bright.''


STILL CAN'T RUN


The Bengals rushed for 77 yards and only a 2.1-yard average against the second-worst run defense in the league, one missing two starting linebackers.


SLOPPY DOLPHINS


Miami had seven penalties for 68 yards. The most egregious was by Terrence Fede, who pushed Kevin Huber to the ground after he punted in the third quarter. The penalty gave Cincinnati the ball, and the Bengals got a field goal out of it.


INJURIES


Dolphins: LT Branden Albert and C Anthony Steen were inactive with sprained ankles. Also missing were LBs Koa Misi (neck) and Jelani Jenkins (groin). C Mike Pouncey has missed all four games with a hip injury.


Bengals: TE Tyler Eifert was inactive again, contributing to the Bengals' trouble close to the goal line. He's recovering from offseason ankle surgery and returned to practice on a limited basis last week. CB Dre Kirkpatrick was inactive with a hamstring injury suffered Sunday. G Clint Boling sat out most of the fourth quarter with an injured left shoulder.


ANTHEM STATEMENTS


Stills and Dolphins safety Michael Thomas knelt with their hands over their hearts during the anthem.


FANTASY IMPACT


Tannehill was 15 of 25 for 189 yards with a touchdown, an interception, a fumble and five sacks. Dalton was 22 of 31 for 296 yards with a touchdown and a sack.


UP NEXT

The Dolphins begin a stretch of four straight home games against Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and the New York Jets.


The Bengals have a tough two-game stretch, playing Dallas and New England on the road. They're 1-5 in Dallas, dropping their last three. They've dropped their last six at New England, last winning in 1986.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY'S NIGHT'S RESULTS 0 - 2


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 43-57-3 43.00% -9850


O/U Picks 45-60-4 42.86% -10500

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 4 already underway……..


— Dallas is 3-7-1 in last 11 games outside its division.


— Raiders covered eight of their last ten road games.


— Texans are 9-3 in last 12 games as a home favorite.


— Washington is 16-31-2 in its last 49 games as a favorite.


— New Orleans is 8-3-1 in last 12 games as an underdog.


— Colts covered three of last ten tries as a favorite.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 4


Sunday, October 2


Kansas City @ Pittsburgh


Game 275-276
October 2, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
137.544
Pittsburgh
138.625
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+5 1/2); Over


Los Angeles @ Arizona


Game 273-274
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
130.084
Arizona
138.851
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 9
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-7 1/2); Under


New Orleans @ San Diego


Game 271-272
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
128.548
San Diego
129.928
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 4 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+4 1/2); Over


Dallas @ San Francisco


Game 269-270
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.249
San Francisco
125.363
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-2); Under


Denver @ Tampa Bay


Game 267-268
October 2, 2016 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Denver
139.990
Tampa Bay
128.390
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 11 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-3); Over


Oakland @ Baltimore


Game 265-266
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
132.745
Baltimore
130.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3 1/2); Under


Tennessee @ Houston


Game 263-264
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
126.618
Houston
130.483
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under


Detroit @ Chicago


Game 261-262
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
128.105
Chicago
126.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Under


Carolina @ Atlanta


Game 259-260
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
134.392
Atlanta
135.756
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+3 1/2); Over


Seattle @ NY Jets


Game 257-258
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.504
NY Jets
133.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3); Under


Buffalo @ New England


Game 255-256
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.832
New England
142.907
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 4 1/2
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-4 1/2); N/A


Cleveland @ Washington


Game 253-254
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
123.502
Washington
131.990
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 8 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7 1/2); Over


Indianapolis @ Jacksonville


Game 251-252
October 2, 2016 @ 9:30 am


Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
133.194
Jacksonville
126.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 7
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 2 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-2 1/2); Under




Monday, October 3


NY Giants @ Minnesota


Game 277-278
October 3, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
131.564
Minnesota
137.489
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 6
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 4


Sunday's Games
Colts (1-2) vs Jaguars (0-3) (in London)– Jacksonville lost its two home games by total of 6 points, amid rumors that Bradley could be fired with loss here, as bye week looms. Indy had one offensive TD in 25 drives vs Jaguars LY; they gave up 296 rushing yards to Jax in those two games. Colts won six of last seven games vs Jaguars, but lost last one 51-16 here LY- Indy is 10-5 in visits here. Colts hit long pass with 1:17 left to beat Chargers and get its first win LW; Indy 4-9-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite, 16-12-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jaguars play game here every year; 5-11 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.


Browns (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)– Former Redskin QB RGIII returns to Maryland, with his arm in a sling. Browns started three different QBs in first three games, losing in OT after its rookie kicker missed FG at gun of regulation. Cleveland is 9-7-1 in last 17 games as a road underdog- they led last two weeks at half, ran ball for 145-169 yards, but couldn’t finish. Washington is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite; they’ve already lost at home to Steelers/Dallas this year. Last two Redskin games were decided by total of 6 points- they won two of three series games, beating Browns 14-11 in ’08, in only meeting played here. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs spreas in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Bills (1-2) @ Patriots (3-0)– Garoppolo/Brissett are both banged up, unsure who starts at QB in last game before Brady returns. Patriots are 23-2 in last 25 series games, winning 40-32/20-13 in two games vs Buffalo LY. Bills lost 14 of last 15 visits here, winning in ’14. Buffalo ran ball for 208 yards LW, in first game with new OC, after running for total of 151 in first two games, but they threw for only 88 yards- they’ll need lot more balance here. Buffalo is 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a divisional road dog, 7-5-1 in last 13 overall as a road dog. Patriots are 5-1-3 in last nine games as a home favorite- they’ve historically been stronger HF vs non-division foes. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)– Wilson has sprained knee, Seattle has bye week next; backup is TCU rookie Boykin (7-9/65 in mop-up duty LW). Seahawks are 5-6 in last 11 games as road favorite- they’re 6-3-2 in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jets turned ball over eight times LW in epic display of bad offense- they’re 8-2 vs spread in last 10 tries as home underdog, 6-10-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last five series games; Seattle lost its last five games vs Jets in Swamp, but last visit was in 2003- they last beat Jets here in ’83. Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle. NFC West teams are 1-4 vs spread in non-division games. AFC East teams are 5-3, 0-1 if favored.


Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1)– Atlanta scored nine TDs on 18 drives in winning last two games; average total in their first three games is 65 (over 3-0) . Falcons defense also allowed 12 TDs already, all on drives of 75+ yards- they’re not good. Panthers turned ball over 7 times (-4) in last two games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorites, 10-5 in last 15 with a spread of 3 or less. Atlanta is 7-2 in last nine games as a home dog, 5-2 under Quinn in games with spread of 3 or less. Carolina defense has forced 17 3/outs, most in league- they won five of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, after losing previous five . NFL-wide, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.


Lions (1-2) @ Bears (0-3)– Chicago is 8-23-3 vs spread in last 34 games with spread of 3 or less points- they were outscored 83-45 in losing first three games, losing to rookie QBs last two weeks; they’ve lost 11 of last 12 home games, are 2-10 as home dogs in last 4+ years. Check Cutler’s status (thumb). Lions allowed 69 points in splitting pair of road games- they have only two TDs in last six visits to red zone. Detroit won last six series games, with five of six wins by 8 or less points (37-34/24-20 LY); Lions won last three visits here, by 2-6-4 points. Detroit is 5-8 as road favorite last 4+ years, 12-15-2 in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.


Titans (1-2) @ Texans (2-1)– Houston scored one TD in last two games; all three TDs NE scored against them LW came on drives of less than 50 yards. Titans were outscored 29-6 in first half of last two games; they’ve lost field position by 9-9-6 yards in first three games. Houston is 8-3 as home favorite under O’Brien (1-0 this year). Tennessee is 6-13 in last 19 games as road dog- they won only road game this year, 16-15 at Detroit. Texans are 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four, all by 14+ points; Titans lost last four visits here, by 24-6-24-14 points. Tennessee scored one TD on 25 drives vs Texans LY, losing 20-6/34-6. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games. There are rumors that JJ Watt is hurt (back, check status) which would obviously hurt the Houston defense.


Raiders (2-1) @ Ravens (3-0)– Baltimore’s 3-0 start was vs Bills-Browns-Jags, not exactly a tough start, but 3-0 is 3-0; Ravens have only nine TDs, but tried nine FGs- they’re 7-2 in last nine games with Oakland- they lost 37-33 at Oakland in Week 2 LY. Raiders are 0-5 in Baltimore, losing last three by 19+ points each, but last visit was in ’12. Oakland is on road for third time in four weeks; they’ve run ball for 153 yards/game so far, with +4 turnover ratio. Oakland foes are just 11-33 on 3rd down. Ravens are 10-17-1 in last 28 games as home favorite. Raiders covered seven of last eight games as a road dog. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; AFC North teams are 4-4.


Broncos (3-0) @ Buccaneers (1-2)– Tampa Bay allowed 77 points in losing last two weeks; they allowed defensive TD in both games. Bucs ran ball for 86 ypg so far- they miss injured RB Martin. Last 8+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-20-1 as a home dog- they gave up four TDs to Rams LW, after LA hadn’t scored a TD in first two games. Denver is off to 3-0 start in Siemian era; they’re 4-1-1 as a road favorite under Kubiak, 16-33 on 3rd down this year. Broncos are 6-2 vs Bucs, winning last three by 3-3-8 points; Tampa’s last series win was in 1999. Broncos are 2-1 here, with last visit in ’04. AFC West teams are 3-1 as favorites outside the division; NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread in non-division games.

Cowboys (2-1) @ 49ers (1-2)– Dallas scored 29 ppg in winning last two games, scoring 7 TDs on last 19 drives; WR Bryant has hairline fracture in knee (check status). 49ers allowed 83 points in losing last two games, even with +1 turnover ratio both games. Niners allowed eight TDs on foes’ last 25 drives. Cowboys covered five of last six games as a road favorite; they are 2-7-2 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less points; 49ers are 8-3-1 in last 12 games as home dog, 4-1 in last five where spread was 3 or less. Home side lost four of last five series games; Dallas won three of last four visits here- average total in last seven series games is 55.6. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs outside its division; NFC West teams are 2-4.


Saints (0-3) @ Chargers (1-2)– San Diego could easily be 3-0, but blew late leads in losing both road games. Saints’ QB Brees played first five years of career in San Diego, going 30-28 as a starter. NO won by 5-7 points in last two games vs Chargers- this is Brees’ first game back here since leaving the Bolts. Short week/long trip for Saints squad that allowed 417+ yards in all three games so far- they lost to Giants without allowing an offensive TD. San Diego is 5-8 in last 13 games as home favorite; Saints are 6-3-1 in last ten games as a road underdog. Saints have forced only five 3/outs on 28 drives, 4th-least in NFL. NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread outside division; AFC West teams are 7-3.


Rams (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Redbirds are 11-8-1 as home favorite under Arians, but 4-6 in last 10 tries; they got smoked 33-18 in Buffalo LW, turning ball over five (-4) times; Buffalo’s three TD drives were 53-52-47 yards. Underdogs covered all three LA games; Rams upset Seattle/Tampa last two weeks, holding off Bucs in red zone as game ended LW- they scored four TDs in Tampa, after not having any on offense in first two games- they averaged 6.6/6.8 yards/pass last two games, solid numbers. Arizona won four of last five series games, with three wins by 17+ points; Rams split last six visits here, which is much shorter trip now that team is in LA.


Chiefs (2-1) @ Steelers (2-1)— Pitt lost 23-13 at Arrowhead LY, ending 3-game series win streak; Chiefs lost last five visits here, with four of those losses by 8 or less points. KC’s last win in Steel City was in ’86. Steelers are 13-6 in last 19 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year; they got whacked 34-3 in Philly LW after allowing only two TDs on 19 drives in winning first two games- they’ve forced only four 3/outs so far, tied for least in NFL. Pitt gets RB Bell (suspension) back this week; rumors had him taking some practice reps at WR. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside its division, 4-2 as underdogs. Chiefs had eight takeaways in win over Jets LW; their only TD drive (defense scored two) was 35 yards.




Monday's Game
Giants (2-1) @ Vikings (3-0)— Giants’ three games were decided by total of six points; they beat Saints without scoring offensive TD, then lost 29-27 at home to Redskins LW, blowing 21-9 lead, allowing TD plays of 44-55 yards. Minnesota’s defense/special teams have three TDs, making up for offense (three TDs) that is getting used to new QB Bradford (beat Giants twice LY while with Eagles). Vikings are 9-2 as home favorite under Zimmer; Giants are 4-6-1 in last 11 games as a road underdog- they passed for 690 in two home games last two weeks, should enjoy climate inside dome. Minnesota allowed total of 40 points in three games; they gained only 284-211 yards in last two games, but lead NFL with a +8 turnover margin.

 

[CNOTES]

Trends To Watch - October
September 30, 2016


October is a great month for sports fans alike with the MLB playoffs and the start of the NBA season. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during Halloween’s month.


That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October. All we extracted from the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine.


We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer.


Enjoy!


HOME TEAMS


Good: If there is one aspect you can count on this month, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers covering spreads at home. The Steelers have annually begun to hit their stride in October and particularly so at Heinz Field. The Steelers are 34-15 ATS and have Kansas City (10/2), the Jets (10/9) and New England (10/23) in the Steel City.


Keep an eye on (Good): Another high quality squad this loves home cookin' this month is Cincinnati, who is 19-10 against the oddsmakers. Too bad this year's schedule has so many road games with only Cleveland on the Oct. 23rd paying a visit.


Keep an eye on (Bad): For underperforming teams at home we find three that fit the bill. Chicago (18-29 ATS) is no surprise and neither is Jacksonville (14-23 ATS), but Seattle (16-26 ATS) with the 12th man certainly is.


The Bears have Detroit to start the month, the Jaguars in the middle of the month and Minnesota on Halloween.


Jacksonville justifiably gives up a home game for London trip and only has Oakland on the 23rd. The Seahawks have three away games and a bye, which means only Atlanta on the 16th are on Coffee Town.


AWAY TEAMS


Keep an eye on (Good): With the defending NFC champions Carolina off to a slow start, they will look to enhance 26-15 ATS road record against division foes Atlanta (10/2) and New Orleans (10/16).


The New York Giants always had a solid reputation at road warriors under former coach Tom Coughlin. The G-Men will be tested in back to back trips against Minnesota (10/3) and Green Bay (10/9) just six days apart.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona will be challenged to improve pathetic 14-27 ATS mark this month, playing on first Thursday game at San Francisco and the day before Halloween in a NFC title tilt rematch at Carolina.


Cincinnati is 20-34 ATS away from home and its arduous early season slate continues with consecutive contests at Dallas and at New England beginning Oct.9th.


Seattle is only 19-35 ATS away from the Northwest this month and has a trio of sojourns to New Jersey (Jets) to start October and finishes things in the Arizona desert and in the bayou of Louisiana.


Tampa Bay has a rare Monday matchup at Carolina on the 10th and 13 days later in Frisco, and will be trying to better 16-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES


Keep an eye on (Good): The team from St. Louis is a sharp 21-11 handing out points and will try and see if that act continues in L.A. Only contest with Buffalo (10/9) might fit the bill.


San Francisco is 39-23 ATS, with nearly all of that accomplished with far better teams than this one. Possibly a date with Tampa Bay (10/23) could make this active angle.


Bad: The Bears are stinky 11-23 ATS as favorites and they catch Jacksonville (10/16) two weeks after their London trip.


Keep an eye on (Bad): With two games against New England this month, you know the Bills will not be favored in those, but assuredly they could better 20-30 ATS mark against the Niners at home on the 16th.


Jacksonville is another club not suited for handing out points, with only a 10-19 spread record. The Raiders in north Florida on the 23rd of the month is only possibility for winner.


Tampa Bay is none too pretty 16-26 ATS doling out digits. Contests at San Francisco and Oakland are only two games of the month where they could be favored.


We start this month not exactly sure what the status of Russell Wilson will be, but we do know Seattle is sickly 15-28 ATS as favored outfit.


UNDERDOGS


Good: Pittsburgh is remarkable 23-9 ATS this month in the role, but the only slightly conceivable chance they might be when New England and Tom Brady visit on the 23rd.


Keep an eye on (Good): Speaking of the Patriots, they are pretty good road dogs also at 22-14 ATS. They could be the pooch at the aforementioned Steelers. Somebody has to be, right?


Chicago is 28-17 ATS when receiving points and they will get a lot of practice this month to better that record, because the only opportunity they could be favored in five games is home against Jacksonville (10/16).


Mentioned the Giants as a quality road outfit and they have been even better as underdogs (23-13 ATS) and will be in that role in the Midwest at the Vikings and Packers.


Keep an eye on (Bad): San Francisco will be a underdog in first three games of the month against Dallas, Arizona and at Buffalo. The Tampa Bay tilt on the 23rd in Santa Clara is too be determined and nobody knows how the Niners will matchup against a bye week. Either way, the Niners are still 13-24 ATS.


We forget how bad Seattle used to be as 21-32 ATS record shows. However, only chance the Seahawks will be getting points is at Arizona (10/23).


DIVISION


Bad: Are the 49ers really 2-14 ATS against the NFC West in October? Yes they are and they will be home to Arizona (10/6).


In the same category is Cincinnati at 12-29 ATS and they will welcome Cleveland to the Queen City in the first of two battles of Ohio.


Keep an eye on (Bad): New Orleans has not been a good home division team for a numbers of seasons and is only 13-24 ATS in that situation against any NFC South foes. They have the Panthers in town on the 16th.


Indianapolis has not seen much success beating spreads versus AFC South foes at 15-23 ATS. Not much help coming for the Colts as they will playing all three opponents away from home, the first in London against Jacksonville.

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 4


September 30, 2016


Week 3 Record: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS


Overall Record: 11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS


Review: The only favorite to come through last week was the Chiefs, who dominated the Jets as three-point favorites. The Lions managed a backdoor cover as 7 ½-point road underdogs at Green Bay after erasing a 31-3 deficit in a 31-24 loss. The Steelers and Bengals each lost in the favorite role, but the Redskins were able to rally to knock off the Giants as short underdogs.


Seahawks (-2 ½, 40) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST


Seattle
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The Seahawks leave the west coast for the first time this season, while seeking consecutive victories for the first time. Seattle blasted San Francisco last Sunday, 37-18 after being held to 15 points in its first two games. Quarterback Russell Wilson left with a sprained left knee, but he is expected to play on Sunday. Seattle has allowed the second-fewest amount of points in the NFL with 37, 10 behind Philadelphia. However, the Seahawks have struggled on the road against AFC foes under Pete Carroll by posting a 3-9 SU and 3-7-2 ATS record since 2010.


New York
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 65/1


The Jets couldn’t get out of their own way last week at Kansas City by turning the ball over eight times, including six interceptions thrown by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kansas City cruised past New York, 24-3, as Fitzpatrick was picked off twice in the end zone. The Jets still own a solid 4-1 ATS record as an underdog during Todd Bowles’ tenure as head coach, including a home ‘dog victory over the Patriots last December. The Jets are hosting the Seahawks for the first time since 2004, as New York has lost each of the past two meetings to Seattle in 2008 and 2012.


Best Bet: New York +2 ½


Panthers (-3, 50) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST


Carolina
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1


The defending NFC champions have stumbled out of the gate with losses to the Broncos and Vikings through three games. Carolina managed 10 early points against Minnesota, but were held scoreless in the final three quarters of a 22-10 home defeat as six-point favorites. Quarterback Cam Newton has thrown as many touchdowns as interceptions through three contests (5), as four of the interceptions came in the two defeats. The last time Carolina visited Atlanta in 2015, the Falcons snapped the Panthers’ 14-game winning streak in a 20-13 victory as seven-point underdogs.

Atlanta
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1


The Falcons have been impressive the last two weeks by putting up a combined 80 points in road victories at Oakland and New Orleans. In Monday’s 45-32 triumph over the Saints, Atlanta’s running game shifted into high-gear with 217 yards on the ground, including three touchdowns from Tevin Coleman and 152 yards from Devonta Freeman. In spite of the win at New Orleans, the Falcons have struggled against division foes under Dan Quinn by compiling a 2-6 SU/ATS record the since the start of 2015. However, the Falcons have thrived in the role of an underdog by putting together a 7-2 ATS mark in nine games when receiving points.


Best Bet: Atlanta +3


Raiders at Ravens (-3 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Oakland
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Raiders’ defense has been eaten up through three games, allowing a league-worst 476 yards a contest and an average of 340 yards through the air. Oakland managed to hold Tennessee to 10 points in last Sunday’s 17-10 road victory, while causing three takeaways for its second consecutive 2-1 start. The Silver and Black closed as a short favorite in Week 3, but the Raiders have been terrific in the role of a road underdog in Jack Del Rio’s tenure by posting a 7-0 ATS mark. Oakland looks to beat Baltimore for the second straight season after knocking off the Ravens as six-point home ‘dogs last September, 37-33.


Baltimore
Record: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1


The Ravens weren’t expected to lead the AFC North following three weeks, but Baltimore has picked up three wins over teams that own a combined 1-8 record. John Harbaugh’s squad edged past Jacksonville last week, 19-17 as the Ravens have scored only four touchdowns this season, while kicking nine field goals. Baltimore finished last season at 0-6-2 ATS as a favorite, but have improved in that category this season by covering two of its first three when laying points. The Ravens have stepped up defensively by ranking second in yards allowed (254.3) and third in passing yards given up (168.3).


Best Bet: Baltimore -3 ½


Broncos (-3, 43) at Buccaneers – 4:05 PM EST


Denver
Record: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t skipped a beat with Trevor Siemian at quarterback, winning each of their first three games. Denver took care of Cincinnati as a short road underdog last Sunday, 29-17 as Siemian threw a career-high four touchdown passes, including a pair of connections with Emmanuel Sanders. Since the start of last season, the Broncos have excelled as an underdog by going 8-0 ATS, but have compiled a 5-7-2 ATS mark as a favorite. Denver is visiting Tampa Bay for the first time since 2004, as the Bucs covered as underdogs in losses in the Mile High City in 2008 and 2012.


Tampa Bay
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1


The Buccaneers shot out of the gate with an impressive road victory over the Falcons as Jameis Winston threw four touchdown passes. However, Tampa Bay has taken a step back the last two weeks by falling to Arizona and Los Angeles, while allowing 77 points in those two defeats. Winston racked up a career-high 405 passing yards against the Rams, but the Bucs dropped to 0-3 in his three career games when putting up at least 300 yards. Since the start of last season, Tampa Bay has compiled a 3-6 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium, while cashing only once in the past five overall in the underdog role.


Best Bet: Tampa Bay +3


Cowboys (-2, 45 ½) at 49ers – 4:25 PM EST


Dallas
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 22/1


The Cowboys rebounded from a one-point opening week setback to the Giants to beat the Redskins and Bears the last two games. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott threw a touchdown pass and ran for another in last Sunday night’s 31-17 blowout of Chicago to pick up their second home cover in the past nine opportunities at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are listed as a road favorite for the first time this season after going 1-1 SU/ATS in this situation in 2015. Dallas will be without big-play threat Dez Bryant as the wide receiver is sidelined with a knee injury.


San Francisco
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 400/1


The 49ers return home following consecutive road blowouts at Carolina and Seattle, as San Francisco’s lone victory this season came at home against Los Angeles in a 28-0 shutout. San Francisco’s defense has been sliced up the last two weeks by giving up 73 points to the Panthers and Seahawks, while dropping to 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. The UNDER has been nearly automatic at Levi’s Stadium since the beginning of 2015, finishing UNDER the total in eight of the previous nine home contests.


Best Bet: San Francisco +2


Rams at Cardinals (-8, 43) – 4:25 PM EST


Los Angeles
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1


The Rams are surprisingly sitting atop the NFC West through three games alongside the Seahawks at 2-1. Technically, Los Angeles has the early tie-breaker advantage over Seattle thanks to a Week 2 home victory, but the Rams’ offense exploded in a 37-32 triumph at Tampa Bay last Sunday to cash outright as 3 ½-point underdogs. Running back Todd Gurley finally busted out by rushing for 85 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Case Keenum threw his first two touchdown passes of the season. The Rams have won and covered four consecutive games in the underdog role since Week 14 of last season, while knocking off the Cardinals as seven-point ‘dogs last October, 24-22 at University of Phoenix Stadium.


Arizona
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1


It’s been a rough start for the defending NFC West champions, who have lost two of their first three games. The only good news from this 1-2 start is both defeats came to New England and Arizona, a pair of AFC foes. Arizona fell behind Buffalo last Sunday, 17-0 and never recovered in a 33-18 setback as five-point road favorites. Carson Palmer was intercepted four times in the loss, as the Cardinals’ quarterback was never picked off more than two times in a game in 2015. Palmer diced up the Rams’ defense last season by throwing for 352 and 356 yards, while Arizona owns a solid 7-1 mark at home off a loss since 2013.


Best Bet: Arizona -8

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 4
September 30, 2016




The ‘over’ posted a 9-7 record last weekend and most of the results were never in doubt. Atlanta, Washington and Denver have all seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in their first three games while Houston is the only team to watch the the ‘under’ cash in all of its games. Through three weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 25-22-1

Quick Observations


-- Total Talk followers have now seen the “Thursday Night” angle start 2-0 this season with the New England-Buffalo matchup pending in Week 4.


-- Houston was shutout last Thursday at New England, the second blanking of this season. The Rams earned the first bagel in Week 1 to San Francisco (28-0) and rebounded in Week 2 with a 9-3 win over Seattle, which is rare. In the previous five seasons, teams off shutouts were 7-14, now 8-14 the L.A. victory. From a total perspective, they averaged just 16.6 points per game and that trend continued with the Rams only scoring nine points.


-- Sticking with shutouts, the 49ers have allowed a combined 947 yards on defense and 83 points since beating Los Angeles 28-0 in the Monday Night opener.


-- There have been two totals listed in the thirties this season, both easy ‘under’ winners. Five totals have closed in the fifties and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those contests.


-- Still early to get a solid sample size but halftime bettors have watched the Vikings and Titans go ‘under’ in the 1st half in each of their first three games, while the Buccaneers and Redskins have been great second-half ‘over’ (3-0) bets.

Off to London


Indianapolis and Jacksonville will meet at Wembley Stadium this Sunday morning (9:30 a.m. ET) from London, England in the first of four international games set for the regular season. This will be the 15th game played in London and total bettors have seen a 7-7 stalemate through the first 14 games.


It should be noted that Jacksonville has played in this matchup three times and the ‘over’ has connected in all three with an average score of 55 combined points per game. The Jaguars are 1-2 and the lone win came last year when they outlasted the Bills 34-31 in a game that saw three defensive scores.


The total on this game is hovering between 49 and 50 points, which seems a tad high knowing the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 encounters between the pair. However, Jacksonville did blast Indianapolis 51-16 last season at home but that game was also helped with three scores from non-defensive units.


West to East


My colleague at VegasInsider.com Kevin Rogers wrote a piece this summer on Time Zone Trends in the NFL and how East and West coast teams fared with travel to opposite coasts. It’s a solid read that points out angles to follow from last season, which included a quick note on total results.


In the 2015 regular season, West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone saw the ‘over’ go 11-5 (69%) and that tendency has carried over this fall with three straight wins to the high side.


Week 2 - San Francisco 27 at Carolina 46 – Over 44 ½
Week 3 - Arizona 18 at Buffalo 33 – Over 48
Week 3 - Los Angeles 37 at Tampa Bay 32 – Over 40 ½


Make a note that we included Arizona as a West Coast team along with Oakland, San Diego, Seattle, San Francisco and the newbie – Los Angeles.


Week 4 has two games that fit the above situation:


Oakland at Baltimore
Seattle at N.Y. Jets


Divisional Action


We’ve got six divisional games set for Week 4 and it appears the familiarity angle has helped the offensive units early in the season with the ‘over’ going 9-4 in the first 13 divisional games played this season.


Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: (See Above)

Buffalo at New England: Due to the quarterback situation with the Patriots, no early total was posted on this game but does it matter? New England has averaged 27 PPG with backups and Buffalo’s total defense is ranked 23rd. What should be noted is that these teams have played to a pair of shootouts in the last two meetings from Buffalo (37-22, 40-32) while the last two encounters from Foxboro were low-scoring affairs (17-9, 20-13). As of Friday evening, a few shops were holding anywhere between 43 and 44 on this total.

Carolina at Atlanta: Does this matchup really warrant a total in the fifties? When you look at Atlanta’s offensive (34.7 PPG) and defensive (30.3 PPG) scoring numbers, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here. However, the low side has hit in six straight in this series and the Falcons have been held to 12 PPG during this low-scoring stretch versus the Panthers.


Detroit at Chicago: The number on this game jumped from 46 to 47 ½ and both clubs have been plagued with key injuries to defensive starters. If you’re going to ride total trends in this series, then make a note that ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run from Soldier Field and the ‘over’ has gone 4-0 in the last four between the pair from Ford Field.


Tennessee at Houston: Tough total to handicap here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a handful of points posted. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings in this series yet the total (40 ½) is the lowest number posted in Week 4. The Texans held the Titans to six points in each of the two meetings last season but Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota played in neither of those meetings and for whatever reason, the former Oregon standout has played much better on the road in his young career.

Los Angeles at Arizona: The total has gone 5-5 in the last 10 meetings between the pair but three of the last four playing in the desert have seen the ‘over’ connect. Arizona has averaged 25 PPG during this stretch. Even though the Cardinals were held to 18 last week in their loss to the Bills, they put up more yards than Buffalo but turned the ball over five times.


Under the Lights


After watching the ‘over’ cash last Sunday and Monday night, the Bengals and Dolphins easily went ‘under’ (46 ½) their closing number this past Thursday. Including those results, bettors have seen the total go 5-5-1 through 11 primetime games.


Kansas City at Pittsburgh: Watching the Steelers only score three points last week was very surprising and I doubt will see that production again, especially with running back Le’Veon Bell returning to action this week. However this Kansas City defense is on fire right now and since allowing 21 first-half points to San Diego in Week 1, the Chiefs have surrendered just five field goals in 2 ½ games (10 quarters). This pair has met four times since 2011 and the ‘under’ cashed easily in every game (13-9, 16-13, 20-12, 23-13).

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: The Giants and Vikings have both seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games and Minnesota could easily be 3-0 if its defense didn’t score twice in Week 1. The Vikings were a great ‘under’ team last season (12-4-1) and that trend has continued. The offense plays very slow, averaging 57.3 plays per game (ranked 29th) and their defense (295 YPG, 13.3 PPG) is ranked in the Top 5 in both yards and points. New York isn’t clicking on offense (21 PPG) right now and it’s TD-FG (6-5) ratio isn’t a good sign for ‘over’ bettors. These teams played outdoors in Minnesota last season and the Vikings routed the Giants 49-17 as the ‘over’ (45) easily cashed.

Fearless Predictions


Our teaser wager kept us in the black last week ($90) and kept the overall bankroll growing after three weeks ($280). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-Baltimore 46 ½

Best Under: Tennessee-Houston 40 ½

Best Team Total: Under Dallas 23


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)


Over Oakland-Baltimore 37 ½
Under Los Angeles-Arizona 52
Under Denver-Tampa Bay 52

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
September 30, 2016



Hello to our friends in London!

The NFL once again sends you their tired and weak with the 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars for the first of three London NFL games this season. But this is actually London's home team, kind of. It's their club at least one game a year through an agreement that expires in 2021. Soon they'll probably have hooligans protecting the club like a proper English football firm.


The best thing about the London NFL games is they get to legally bet at bet shops all around Wembley Stadium. And the fans no longer cheer the loudest when an extra-point or field goal is score.


Here in the states the Colts opened as 1-point favorites over London's Jaguars and Indianapolis money has pushed Indianapolis to -2.5 The total opened at 49.5 and its down to 49 as of Friday afternoon.


William Hill sports books reported they have 80 percent of the cash on the Colts. After six straight Colts wins over Jacksonville, the Jags finally won in December, 51-16. The Jags covered both games last season and an 0-5 ATS streak against them..


Washington has a couple different numbers in Las Vegas for their home game against the Cleveland Browns, who showed some fight last week in their overtime loss at Miami. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Redskins -9 and on Friday they went to -7.5. That's the low number. The high number is -9.5 at Aliante. Most everyone is is -8 or -8.5. The total jumped from 45.5 to 46.5 on Wednesday. William Hill Has 90 percent of the cash on Cleveland taking the points.


Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett are both 'questionable' for the New England home game against Buffalo. Both were limited in practice and who starts will be a game time decision. Most books still don't have the game on the board as they await for concrete information. CG Technology books have the Patriots -6 (-115) and Station Casinos has them -6.5. Boyd Gaming has the only total in town posted at 43.


The Westgate opened Seattle -3 (EV) for its road game at the New York Jets. It went to -2.5 (flat) quickly and has been steady. The total has dropped from 41.5 to 40. The Seahawks offense finally came to life last week with a 37-18 win against the 49ers while the Jets come of an awful turnover infested game at Kansas City. After the public parlay bettors all stayed from their Seahawks last week, they're all over them this week.


The Carolina Panthers opened at -3.5 and are now 3 (flat) for their game at Atlanta. Cam Newton has been beat up in two losses to the Denver and Minnesota defenses. The Falcons give up 30 points a game. The total has moved up from 50 to 50.5.


Detroit opened as 2.5-point favorites at Chicago and it moved to -2.5 on Monday where it stayed until Wednesday when it moved when the Westgate went to -3 (EV). They're 3 (flat) now, while the total has gone from 47 to 47.5 with a brief stop at 48. The Lions have swept the Bears the last three seasons. The Bears are 0-3 and still banged up using back-up Brian Hoyer at quarterback.


The Houston Texans don't have All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt and apparently there are a few bettors and bookmakers that think his value to the number is worth 1.5-points. On Sunday night, Houston opened as a 6.5-point home favorite against Tennessee. On Tuesday the number dropped to -5.5 and on Thursday it dropped from -5 to -4.5. The total is consistent at 40.5.


Baltimore has won and covered all three of their games, but are only -3.5 at home against Oakland. A little bit of money came in on the Raiders so the Ravens are now -3.5 (EV). The total hasn't moved off 46.5


The Denver Broncos are also a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS, but they're rapidly increased rating makes them -3 at Tampa Bay. Bettors pushed the number from an opener of -2.5 to -3 real quick on Sunday when the number opened. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.


Dallas opened -3 at San Francisco and settled at -2 on Thursday. The total has dropped from 46 to 45.


San Diego opened as 3.5-point home favorites over New Orleans, and got as high as -4.5, but settled at -4 on Wednesday. The total shot up from 52 to 53.5 after the Saints Monday night performance.


Arizona opened as 9-point favorite over Los Angeles on Sunday night bettors jumped on the 'dog Monday and on Wednesday the number moved to -8. The total opened 43.5 and sits at 43.


Pittsburgh opened as a 5.5-point home favorite over Kansas City and boosted the number to -6 Monday. It got as low as -4.5 on Thursday before settling at -5. The total has gone from 47.5 to 47.


The top public parlay plays of the week so far are the Broncos, Seahawks, Cowboys and Lions. The bettors got buried last week with their parlays so we'll how strong and confident they come to the window this week.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
October 1, 2016



NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Seahawks are 14-0 ATS since Oct 18, 2012 after throwing for at least 250 yards in a win last game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Lions are 0-10 ATS since Oct 01, 2006 and on the road after scoring at least 24 points in the loss last game.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Bears are 0-7 ATS since Oct 06, 2013 as a home dog when Alshon Jeffery had at least five receptions last game.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Raiders are 13-0-1 OU since Oct 03, 2010 as a dog after covering on the road last game.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Chargers are 0-10 OU since Jan 17, 2010 at home after having less than 28 minutes time of possession last game.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Cowboys are 14-0 OU off a win and facing a team that allowed 400-plus yards of offense in their last game.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 4
October 1, 2016


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3


Week 4


1) N.Y. Jets +2.5 (661)
2) Denver -3 (592)
3) Carolina -3 (541)
4) New England -5.5 (502)
5) San Francisco +2.5 (560)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Miami (+7.5) 98 Cincinnati (-7.5) 98
Indianapolis (-2.5) 215 Jacksonville (+2.5) 289
Cleveland (+7.5) 362 Washington (-7.5) 150
Buffalo (+5.5) 142 New England (-5.5) 502
Seattle (-2.5) 140 N.Y. Jets (+2.5) 661
Carolina (-3) 541 Atlanta (+3) 230
Detroit (-3) 434 Chicago (+3) 204
Tennessee (+5) 246 Houston (-5) 279
Oakland (+3.5) 440 Baltimore (-3.5) 274
Denver (-3) 592 Tampa Bay (+3.) 396
Dallas (-2.5) 277 San Francisco (+2.5) 460
New Orleans (-4) 209 San Diego (+4) 191
Los Angeles (+8) 155 Arizona (-8) 292
Kansas City (+5.5) 270 Pittsburgh (-5.5) 381
N.Y. Giants (+4.5) 353 Minnesota (-4.5) 372


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Chiefs at Steelers
October 1, 2016


After two sluggish performances to start the season the Chiefs played to their expected abilities last week against the Jets in a 24-3 win. Sunday night we'll get to witness who the real Chiefs are as they visit Heinz Field for match against the Steelers who are listed a 5-point favorites with a total set at 47.


Pittsburgh comes with a 2016 story completely opposite of the Chiefs. After winning and covering its their first two games, the were buried 34-3 last week at Philadelphia as 3.5-point road favorites. No TD's for Ben Roethlisberger and one interception. The Steelers offense, considered by many to be the best in the NFL, only gained 251 yards with the running game only producing 29 yards.


The Steelers rush attack should get a boost Sunday as Le'Veon Bell returns from a three game suspension. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Bell is worth a half-point to the number.


So what's it going to be Sunday night? Will the Chiefs go on a run similar to last season when they figured things out after a 1-5 start to win their final 10 regular season games? Will the Steelers bounce back at home and completely forget about last weeks disaster? Or did the Eagles lay down a blue print for all other teams to follow on how to slow the Steelers offense?

LINE MOVEMENT


The Westgate SuperBook opened Pittsburgh 5.5-point favorites on last Sunday night and Monday morning they pushed the number to -6. However, on Tuesday there was some respected money taking +6, and then Wednesday they found takers at the dead number of +5.5 and then on Thursday morning, they moved to -4.5. The total has dropped from 47.5 to 47.


TURNOVERS IMPORTANT?


You can't adjust ratings too much on turnovers, but when a pattern starts it's hard to ignore. The Steelers have a -1 turnover ratio and the Chiefs are +5. Of course, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a lot to do with that disparity at Kansas City last week with his offense giving away 8 balls, but still, the number resonates. The Chiefs were doing something right, and this is supposed to be a possible AFC representative to make a Super Bowl visit. Whatever happened the previous week last shouldn't weigh too much into a wagering decision, but the Steelers looked awful last week. By the way, the Eagles 3-0 start has been aided by a +6 turnover margin, which is second behind the Vikings (+8).


PROPER RATINGS?


I haven't lowered the Steelers in their rating this season despite last weeks result, but the Chiefs were lowered a half-point after their come-from-behind win against the Chargers in Week 1. It really was a good finish, but they were lousy in the first-half. KC's rating has remained intact the last two weeks, even though the Chiefs looked really good last week against a quality team in the Jets. My line says the Chiefs shouldn't be getting +5 or more, and that's with including Le'Veon Bell to Pittsburgh's equation.

TRENDS


-- Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in last seven road games.
-- Kansas City has failed to cover its last four following an ATS win.
-- Kansas City has gone Under total in five of last seven games.


-- Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in last nine games following a loss.
-- Pittsburgh has gone Under in six of its past seven games.


RECENT MEETINGS


The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the Chiefs have covered four of the past five. The last four meetings have stayed Under, including last October when the Chiefs won 23-13 as 3.5-point home favorites. Bell rushed for 121 yards and Antonio Brown caught eight passes for 124 yards, but Landry Jones was starting QB with Roethlisberger injured. The Big Ben effect was huge as Pittsburgh converted only 2 of 10 third downs.


DIVISION ODDS


The Chiefs came into the season 8/5 to win the AFC East as the second choice behind Denver at 3-to-2. The gap has widened with Denver looking so spectacular with its 3-0 start. They are now 4/5 and the Chiefs are 9/4. The Raiders are 9/2 and the Chargers are 12/1.


Pittsburgh has gone from EVEN to 5/7 after three weeks of play. Baltimore is 9/4, Cincinnati is 7/2 and Cleveland is 300/1.


SUPER BOWL ODDS


Because of the Patriots (7/2) winning without Tom Brady and Denver (12/1) doing well, their Super Bowl odds dropping has changed the complexion of the rest of the AFC. Pittsburgh has gone from 8/1 up to 10/1 and Chiefs from 20/1 to 25/1.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting the fave has been the play in NFL London games


The Jacksonville Jaguars play in London for the fourth consecutive year. They are 1-2 SU/ATS in the previous three games.


The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 as the NFL's International Series contines with its first of three games in London, England this season and with the line currently Bills -2.5, bettors should make note as the fave has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 games in jolly ol' England.


This season marks the tenth consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England and is the fourth consecutive year the Jags have hopped across the pond. The New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams play at the first game at Twickenham Stadium in Week 7, while Washington will face the Cincinnati Bengals back at Wembley in Week 8.


There are a couple of trends through the first 14 games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Colts-Jags game this weekend.


The favorite covered the spread in two of the three games in England last season and, as previously mentioned, is 9-3 ATS (75 percent) in the last 12 games. Faves are 9-5 ATS all-time in 14 games played in England.


Last season, the Jags beat the Bills 34-31, covering as 4.5-point pups, while the New York Jets topped the Miami Dolphins 27-14 as 2.5-point faves and the Kansas City Chiefs thumped the Detroit Lions 45-10 as 3-point faves.


If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 8-6 (57.1 percent) in the 14 games and the over has cashed in five of the past seven games across the Atlantic.


The total in this weekend's matchup opened is currently 49.

 

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 4 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the division rival Rams.


Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us and with so many games on the slate it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the schedule.


Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3, 50.5)


* Turnovers are the clear concern for Carolina, as Cam Newton has thrown as many interceptions - five - as touchdown passes. The Panthers still are moving the ball on the ground, even with Fozzy Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne filling in for Jonathan Stewart (hamstring), and facing a porous Atlanta secondary could help Newton and the passing game get going. The defense has been solid, ranking third in the league in total defense, but too often has been put in difficult situations due to turnovers.


* Atlanta’s offense is firing on all cylinders, as Ryan has passed for 970 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception while Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are a formidable backfield duo. Freeman had a career-high 207 yards from scrimmage last week (152 rushing, 55 receiving) and Coleman punched in three touchdowns. There is plenty of cause for concern on the other side of the ball, though, as the Falcons rank 30th in total defense.


LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened this NFC South showdown as 3.5-point home pups, but have been bet to +3. The total opened at an even 50 and has been bet up to 50.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Falcons last seven home games.


Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 46)


* Derek Carr had a field day against the Ravens last year, throwing for a career-high 351 yards and three touchdowns. Oakland's high-powered offense is ranked second in the league as it is averaging 436 yards and 26.7 points per contest. Oakland could be without Nate Allen for the matchup as the safety did not participate in Thursday's practice after being limited the previous day due to a quadriceps injury.


* The Ravens have had few problems with the Raiders, winning six of the eight overall meetings and four straight before dropping a 37-33 decision at Oakland last September. Baltimore will have another weapon to help contain Oakland quarterback Derek Carr as Pro Bowl linebacker Elvis Dumervil will make his season debut after missing the team's first three games due to a setback with his surgically repaired foot.


LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened this game as 3.5-point home faves and have been bet up to -4. The total opened at 46.5 and has been bet down to 46. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Ravens are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Raiders last four versus AFC opponents.
* Under is 5-1 in Ravens last six home games.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+3, 48)


* Matthew Stafford threw for 703 yards and seven touchdowns in last year's sweep of the Bears and has formed a post-Calvin Johnson connection this season with Marvin Jones, who has an NFL-best 408 yards receiving. Stafford went for 385 yards and three scores and Jones reeled in six receptions for a career-high 205 yards and two TDs in the Lions' 34-27 setback at division-rival Green Bay on Sunday.


* Chicago is expected to turn to Brian Hoyer for the second straight outing with Jay Cutler nursing a sprained right thumb. Hoyer completed 30 of 49 passes for 317 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears' 31-17 setback at Dallas on Sunday. Rookie Jordan Howard will try to ignite Chicago's 30th-ranked rushing attack and could find room to roam versus a Detroit squad surrendering a league-high 5.1 yards per carry this season and 199 yards on the ground last week.


LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened this games as 3-point road dogs and the line has yet to move off that number. Meanwhile, the has seen plenty of action. Oddsmakers opened the number at 46 and has since been bet up two points to the current number of 48. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Lions are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus NFC North opponents.
* Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Bears last five games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4.5, 40.5)


* Tennessee’s offense has moved the ball well on the ground, but the passing game has left much to be desired. Mariota has as many interceptions – four – as touchdown passes and hasn’t provided enough balance to complement DeMarco Murray, who has accounted for three touchdowns (one rushing, two receiving). An improved defense has kept the Titans in games, holding all three opponents under 250 passing yards, but the club has forced just two turnovers and had some trouble stopping the run.


* The Texans will be without star defensive end J.J. Watt, who was placed on injured reserve Wednesday after aggravating the back injury that required surgery over the summer. Quarterback Brock Osweiler isn’t putting up big numbers in his first season in Houston, throwing four interceptions and just three touchdown passes despite a dangerous receiving corps. The offense should be fine, though, if Osweiler can limit his mistakes, as Lamar Miller leads a strong rushing attack that has moved the ball well but has not yet found the end zone.


LINE HISTORY: The Texans opened this game as 6.5-point home favorites, but ever since the news of Watt's injury came out bettors have been fading Houston, moving the line to Texans -4.5. The total opened at 40.5 and hasn't moved off that number. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Titans are 3-21-3 ATS in their last 27 versus AFC South opponents.
* Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last five versus AFC South opponents.
* Under is 6-0 in Texans last six home games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Houston.


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7, 43)


* Although Rex Ryan said a reason for firing Roman was his inability to get the team's top playmakers more involved, the absence of star wideout Sammy Watkins forced Buffalo to rely on a ground game that produced 208 yards rushing versus Arizona. LeSean McCoy nearly matched his total from the first two weeks combined by rushing for 110 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and he rushed for more than 80 yards in both matchups against New England last season. Watkins did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and is not expected to do so on Friday so McCoy could be in line for another heavy workload.


* It's unclear if Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Jacoby Brissett -- both dealing with injuries -- will be under center for New England and the decision is expected to be made after pre-game warmups. Both Garoppolo (shoulder) and Brissett were limited in Thursday's practice, and the prognosis of the offense was further muddled by the limited status of star tight end Rob Gronkowski (hamstring). Running back LeGarrette Blount, who leads the NFL with 298 yards rushing and has scored four touchdowns, was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month on Thursday.


LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers don't really care who starts under center for the Patriots, opening them as 7.5-point home favorites in this AFC matchup. Since then, the line has seen some Bills action, sitting currently at New England -7. The total opened at 42.5 and has been bet up to 43. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Bills are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Bills last four games following a SU win.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets (+2, 40)


* The Seattle Seahawks expect to have quarterback Russell Wilson in the lineup Sunday, despite battling an ankle injury and an MCL sprain suffered in last week's win over San Francisco, but he vows to be under center despite reports that said he'd miss up to three weeks with the latest injury. The Seahawks got a big boost last week with the re-emergence of tight end Jimmy Graham, who snared six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers and looks to be all the way back from his surgery on a torn patellar tendon.


* Last week quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a career-high six interceptions and lost two fumbles. It doesn't look to get any easier for Gang Green's offense against the Seahawks, who rank first in the league in total defense and second in scoring defense, allowing just 12.3 points a game. Fitzpatrick's top targets are both battling injuries as Eric Decker, who leads the team with 194 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns, is expected to seek an MRI exam on his shoulder and Brandon Marshall has been slowed with a knee sprain.


LINE HISTORY: The Jets opened this game as 2.5-point home pups and there has been action on both sides since. The Jets moved down to +1 earlier in the week, but have moved back to the current number of +2. The total opened at a low 41.5 and bettors still like the Under, moving the number to an even 40. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last five games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-0 in Jets last six games following a straight up loss.

Cleveland Browns at Washington (-7.5, 46.5)


* While exciting and versatile wide receiver Terrelle Pryor said that the Browns were going "to win out" the rest of the season, the problems remain for Cleveland, which will start rookie Cody Kessler for the second straight game with Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown both sidelined. Kessler, out of USC, finished 21-for-33 for 244 yards with no interceptions in an encouraging debut, but Cleveland may be without running back Isaiah Crowell, who ranks second in the NFL is rushing with 274 yards and a robust 6.1 yards per carry.


* Attempting to defend its NFC East title, Washington started the year 0-2 with losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas before notching its unlikely comeback against the Giants. They may be short-handed it their quest to make it two straight as wide receivers DeSean Jackson (ankle, knee) and Josh Doctson (achilles) are both listed as questionable for Sunday's game and they lost two starting offensive linemen against New York.


LINE HISTORY: Washington opened this game as heavy 10-point home chalk, but bettors are actually backing the Browns here moving the line all the way to Cleveland +7.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet up to 46.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in October.
* Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Browns last seven road games.
* Over is 8-0 in Redskins last eight games overall.

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 43)


* Trevor Siemian acquitted himself well in his first road start, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after throwing for 312 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's 29-17 victory at Cincinnati. The Florida native is beginning to develop chemistry with Emmanuel Sanders, who collected nine catches for 117 yards and two touchdowns versus the Bengals. Von Miller leads the league with five sacks this season and had a 26-yard interception return for a touchdown in the teams' last meeting -- Denver's 31-23 win on Dec. 2, 2012.


* Jameis Winston passed for a career-high 405 yards with three touchdowns in a 37-32 setback to Los Angeles last Sunday. Charles Sims had 124 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown versus Los Angeles and should receive another sizable workload with Doug Martin (hamstring) expected to miss his second straight game on Sunday. Cameron Brate also made the most of additional playing time on Sunday by reeling in a pair of touchdown passes after fellow tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins sat out following an arrest for DUI before being claimed off waivers by the New York Jets on Monday.


LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened this game favored by a field goal on the road and the line hasn't moved off that number. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet down to 43. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 7-3 in Broncos last 10 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last five games following a SU loss.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8, 43)


* After ranking last in total offense in 2015 and managing only three field goals through the first two games, Los Angeles snapped out of its doldrums in Tampa Bay. Running back Todd Gurley got in the end zone twice on a pair of 1-yard touchdowns, but he averaging only 2.9 yards per carry as defenses continue to stack the box and dare quarterback Case Keenum to beat them. Keenum threw for his first two scoring passes of the season and 190 yards against the Buccaneers, but he lacks a go-to wide receiver and is completing 53.8 percent of his passes with 559 yards overall through three games.


* Although Carson Palmer established career highs in touchdown passes (35), yards (4,671) and quarterback rating (104.6) last season, he has been picked off 12 times in his last seven games (playoffs included) since injuring a finger on his throwing hand in Week 15 last season. Running back David Johnson was one of the few constants on offense last week with 83 yards rushing and a pair of touchdown runs while speedster John Brown finally emerged with six receptions for 70 yards after catching one ball in each of the first two games.


LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this NFC West showdown as big 8.5-point home chalk, but have since been bet down to Arizona -8. The total opened at 43.5 and has been bet down to 43. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Rams last six versus NFC West opponents.
* Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last six home games.

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 53)


* Drew Brees returns to San Diego for the first time since leaving as a free agent in 2006 as he attempts to lead the New Orleans Saints to their first victory of the season Sunday against the Chargers. Age certainly is not slowing Brees down, as the veteran enters Week 4 leading the NFL in completions (93), passing yards (1,062) and touchdown tosses (eight). He has enjoyed facing AFC teams of late, throwing for at least 400 yard and three touchdowns in the last two encounters.


* Melvin Gordon, who enters Week 4 tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns with four, accounted for all but two of San Diego's feeble rushing-yards total last week and hopes for better results against the Saints. Philip Rivers, who replaced Brees as the Chargers' quarterback, has recorded 695 passing yards and a 100.4 rating in two career starts against New Orleans.


LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened this game favored by 4.5-points, but bettors are backing Brees in his homecoming, moving the line to San Diego -3.5. Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout here, pegging this game with the highest total of the week at 53.5. It has been bet down to 53. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a losing record.
* Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Saints last four road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Chargers last five home games.


Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+1, 44.5)


* Ezekiel Elliott, tied for second in the NFL with 274 yards, rolled up 140 in Dallas' 31-17 victory over Chicago last Sunday and looks to exploit similar gaping holes in the 49ers' 23rd-ranked rush defense (122.7 yards per game).Dez Bryant is nursing a hairline fracture in his right leg near the knee. Slot receiver Cole Beasley (team-leading 20 catches, 213 yards) and tight end Jason Witten will be tasked with opening up the defense to prevent San Francisco from stacking the box against Elliott.


* San Francisco has seen its defense gouged for 83 points over its last two games following a suffocating 28-0 victory over Los Angeles in the season opener. Carlos Hyde rushed for two touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a 37-18 setback to Seattle on Sunday and has an NFL high-tying four scores this season. Blaine Gabbert, who has completed only 55.2 percent of his passes this season, was just 14-of-25 for 119 yards and an interception versus the Seahawks.


LINE HISTORY: The Niners opened this game as 3-point home pups, but since then its been all San Fran money, moving the line to 49ers +1. The total opened at 46 and has been bet down to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in October.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last six road games.
* Under is 7-0 in 49ers last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record.

 

[CNOTES]

Kaepernick's social activism draws support, rebuke in London
October 2, 2016


LONDON (AP) Police officer Shaun Weay didn't think twice about wearing a 49ers T-shirt to Wembley Stadium on Sunday - even though San Francisco backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick has spoken out against police brutality by, among other actions, kneeling as the national anthem was played before games.


Weay, an officer in Yorkshire, acknowledged he couldn't support the views expressed by Kaepernick.


''He's a role model for people, certainly in the States, and obviously, doing that, it's just not positive,'' said Weay, who grew up watching the 49ers when Joe Montana and Steve Young led them to Super Bowls in the late 1980s and early 1990s. ''Stay out of it is the easiest thing to do. Keep your opinions. If you have your own opinion, that's fine, but keep it out of the public arena for everyone else to get involved.''


Weay made the roughly 200-mile trip from northern England with his daughter and her boyfriend, who wore Kaepernick's jersey, because Sunday was his day off.


''We're all people at the end of the day, and we've all got to keep people safe,'' Weay said. ''I may not agree with the way that (police in America have) dealt with things, but that was their call on the day. They made that decision. They're the ones that had that threat in front of them, and they dealt with it as they saw fit.''


Chris Stevens, from Lincolnshire, attended the game with several friends and also wore a Kaepernick jersey. He began paying attention to the NFL in 2012, when Kaepernick helped the 49ers get to the Super Bowl, and thus began to follow the team more closely.


''I would say I agree with him to a certain extent, that black lives matter, but I'm more of a stance that all lives matter,'' said Stevens, who equated Kaepernick's stance with that of Muhammad Ali in the 1960s. ''But, I do agree that it does seem to be an issue with Americans.''


Colts cornerback Antonio Cromartie continued to show his support for the black community by kneeling and raising a fist during the singing of the national anthem. Cromartie, who began the gesture a week ago, stood up before ''God Save The Queen,'' the British national anthem, was sung.


Wearing Kaepernick's jersey wasn't particularly unique in London, where the NFL is in its 10th year hosting regular-season games. Fans have typically shown up to such games supporting a variety of teams - not just those playing in the game.


Yet not everyone was aware of Kaepernick's stance. Eight sections away, six friends traveled from Stuttgart, Germany. Two of whom, Manuel Goertner and Simon Goertner, wore Kaepernick jerseys.


When asked about the quarterback's activism, the two said they had no idea Kaepernick had been instrumental in raising awareness of social issues.


''They were the leading team, and that's why they started to support the 49ers, especially Kaepernick, with the new way he was playing quarterback with all the running,'' said Steff Dreher, a friend who served as an interpreter. ''It was resonant with all the guys.''

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


SEA at NYJ 01:00 PM


NYJ +1.0


U 40.0


CAR at ATL 01:00 PM


O 48.5


CLE at WAS 01:00 PM


CLE +7.5


OAK at BAL 01:00 PM


U 45.0


BUF at NE 01:00 PM


BUF +3.5


DET at CHI 01:00 PM

O 48.0


TEN at HOU 01:00 PM


TEN +3.5


DEN at TB 04:05 PM


TB +3.5


U 43.0


NO at SD 04:25 PM


O 54.0


LA at ARI 04:25 PM

ARI -10.0


U 43.5


DAL at SF 04:25 PM


SF +1.0

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:


KC at PIT 08:30 PM


PIT -3.0


U 48.0