Cnotes 2016 NFL Sept. Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 3
September 24, 2016


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2


Week 3


1) Pittsburgh -3.5 (663)
2) Arizona -4 (536)
3) Tampa Bay -5.5 (502)
4) Jacksonville PK (477)
5) San Diego +3 (418)




SUPERCONTEST WEEK 3 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Houston (-1) 150 New England (+1) 126
Denver (+3.5) 391 Cincinnati (-3.5) 322
Oakland (+1.5) 363 Tennessee (-1.5) 281
Arizona (-4) 536 Buffalo (+4) 281
Baltimore (PK) 219 Jacksonville (PK) 477
Cleveland (+9.5) 84 Miami (-9.5) 395
Washington (+4.5) 383 N.Y. Giants (-4.5) 189
Detroit (+7.5) 377 Green Bay (-7.5) 146
Minnesota (+7) 263 Carolina (-7) 269
San Francisco (+9.5) 251 Seattle (-9.5) 161
Los Angeles (+5.5) 145 Tampa Bay (-5.5) 502
Pittsburgh (-3.5) 663 Philadelphia (+3.5) 203
N.Y. Jets (+3) 319 Kansas City (-3) 212
San Diego (+3) 418 Indianapolis (-3) 227
Chicago (+7.5) 294 Dallas (-7.5) 182
Atlanta (+3) 107 New Orleans (-3) 329


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Bears at Cowboys
September 24, 2016


How 'bout them Cowboys!

After an emotional come from behind win at Washington last week led by rookie back-up quarterback Dak Prescott, there's plenty of optimism that things will be just fine in Dallas until Tony Romo's broken back heals. However, optimism doesn't seem to be the word to describe their opponents story as the Bears visit AT&T Stadium in Week 3 for Sunday Night Football.


Not only has Chicago started an ugly 0-2 -- no covers, either -- but they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to a thumb injury in a Monday night home loss to Philadelphia. Journeyman QB Brian Hoyer, in his eighth season out of Michigan State, will get the starting assignment. The Bears also have several other players listed as 'questionable' or 'out' for the game.

The Cowboys, with it's massive offensive line and a young QB full of confidence, appear to be in store for another win. But what really matters to most of us is whether or not they can win by seven points or more.

LINE MOVEMENT


CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas set the Cowboys as six-point favorites in April when releasing all numbers on every game for the first 16 weeks. That was when both Romo and Cutler were expected to start. On Sunday night they set the number at Cowboys -4 when it was Prescott vs Cutler. On Monday, prior to the MNF game, the Cowboys were bet up to -5.5. After the loss to Philly, and losing Cutler, the number was re-posted at -7.5 (EVEN). Bears money has pushed them down during the week to -7 (EVEN). Five other books around town have -6.5 posted. The total has dropped from 45 down to 44.5.

WHO WILL THE BOOKS NEED?


Despite some respected money playing the Bears, this is going to be a one-sided bet game and a game that will help make of break the books' day. After parlay risk piles up from the first 13 games on Sunday, the risk on Dallas is going going to multiply drastically. That will put the books in a situation needing to even things out by moving the number which means if liking Dallas, you should probably lay -6.5 as soon as possible. If you're looking for action on the Bears, wait closer to kick-off and see if you get +7.5.

LAST WEEK


The Bears were 3-point home favorites over the Eagles and lost 29-14 with the help of losing the turnover battle 3-0. The Eagles held on to the ball for 36 minutes. The total barely went 'over' (42) the closing number.

The Cowboys showed some grit in their 27-21 come from behind win at Washington where the Redskins were 3.5-point favorites. Sharp moved the Redskins. The public loved the Cowboys. Prescott showed his outstanding preaseason wasn't a fluke as he completed 22-of-30 passes for 292 yards. One week after catching only one pass for eight yards against the Giants, Dez Bryant caught seven for 102 yards. Bettors loved the 'over' and got there with a number that ran from 44.5 to 47.

RECENT MEETINGS


Dallas won the last meeting, 41-28, as a four-point road underdog in 2014 which halted a four game Bears win and cover streak in the series. The past five meetings have gone 'over' the total between the pair.

TRENDS


-- Dallas is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 home games.
-- Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win.
-- Dallas has stayed 'under' in five of its last seven games.


-- Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games.
-- Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
-- Chicago has gone Over total in 22 of its last 32 road games.

HOYER NOT A HUGE DROP OFF


Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted the Cowboys -3.5 in their early Week 3 numbers. On Tuesday they re-adjusted to -7.5 after the MNF home loss. Is Cutler really 4-points better than Hoyer? The answer is no. They're actually close to being even, despite the large salary disparity. Beyond 2015 stats that were similar -- Howyer had 19 TDs and seven picks, Cutler had 21 TDs and 11 picks -- Hoyer led the Texans to the playoffs by winning four of his last six regular season starts. Cutler has led the Bears to the playoffs only once (2010) in his seven years and the the Bears have finished dead last in the NFC North the last two seasons. Hoyer can't come close to matching Cutler's physical attributes, but he's better than Cutler in other areas. The actual reason for such a huge swing in the number is the Bears team rating being downgraded and multiple injuries on both sides of the ball. Let's call Cutler worth only 1.5-point over Hoyer.

INJURIES


In addition to Cutler's thumb keeping him out, the Bears have several other key personnel injured. WR Alshon Jeffrey (knee) didn't practice Thursday and is listed as 'questionable.' Starting safety Adrian Amos (concussion) is 'questionable' as is CB Kyle Fuller (knee) and DB Deon Bush (head). ILB Danny Trevathan (thumb), NT Eddie Goldman (ankle) and OLB Lamarr Houston (ACL) are ruled 'out' along with back-up RB Ka'Deem Carey (hamstring). That is one heck of a crowded MASH unit.

The Cowboys have a couple of starters banged up as well. DE Jack Crawford (shoulder), CB Orlando Scandrick (hamstring) and OT Doug Free (quadricep) are all listed as 'questionable.' Back-up OL Ronald Leary (groin) missed the last game and did back-up DE Charles Tapper (back) and both are 'questionable' as well.

FUTURES


The only team the Westgate has with higher Super Bowl odds than the Bears at 150/1 is Cleveland at 1,000/1. That's quite a boost after opening at 40/1 in February with only two weeks of play. But the Bears have earned it. They're also 75/1 to win the NFC.

There's a semblance of respect for the Cowboys who opened 14/1 to win the Super Bowl and are now 20/1. Part of the respected number has to do with risk as they've been one of the more popular bets over the summer. The other part is that the complexion of the NFC has changed with Seattle and Green Bay not looking so dominant and the NFC East looking very winnable. Also, Romo is scheduled to return at mid-season. Dallas is 10/1 to win their first NFC Championship since 1995.

 

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[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3


Without Adrian Peterson running the ball the Vikings will be passing even more heading into a Week 3 showdown with Carolina.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 43)


Vikings’ pass reliance vs. Panthers’ struggling safeties


Two significant developments have turned the Minnesota offense completely upside-down. The loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a devastating leg injury prompted the Vikings to cough up a first-round pick for Sam Bradford. And who knows how the team will react after learning that running back Adrian Peterson is out for what could be several months with a torn meniscus.


The result should be a much more balanced passing attack than the one the Vikings used last season, when they threw on just over 51 percent of their offensive plays. They're already up to 57.6 percent through two games this season, and passed on 61.4 percent of their plays in Bradford's first game in a Vikings uniform last week. Look for that number to hold or even rise now that Peterson is on the shelf for a while.


They'll have their hands full in Carolina this weekend, but the Panthers' secondary hasn't been the same since saying goodbye to Josh Norman in the offseason. While the cornerbacks have been decent - particularly right-side specialist Bene Benwikere - the safety tandem of Kurt Coleman (41.9) and Tre Boston (54.9) have both posted failing grades to date, according to Pro Football Focus. Look for Bradford and his receiving corps to take advantage.


Daily fantasy watch: Stefon Diggs


Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8, 48)


Lions' banged-up backfield vs. Packers' stifling run defense


The Vikings aren’t the only team dealing with running back issues. Division rival Detroit will be looking at a contingency plan for at least the next eight weeks after losing primary rusher Ameer Abdullah to a foot injury. And judging by how well the Packers have defended the run this season, don't expect Detroit to make any inroads on the ground this weekend.


Green Bay has limited opponents to just 78 yards on 48 carries through two games - an absurd 1.6 YPC average that is far and away the lowest in football. They've held foes to a long run of 12 yards while allowing only one touchdown. Tackles Mike Daniels (82.4) and Julius Peppers (78.3) have been outstanding, while defensive end Nick Perry (84.3) has been one of the best at his position. Clay Matthews (37.4) has struggled, but he should get much better.


The Lions' offensive line has impressed early on, but that won't matter with a backfield consisting of two players, Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington, who have just one game of 10-plus carries on their combined resume. Riddick isn't a good between-the-tackles runner, and Washington is simply too raw to be counted on for big things. Look for the Packers to obliterate the Lions' ground game, forcing Matthew Stafford to air it out early and often.


Daily fantasy watch: Marvin Jones


Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 47.5)


Ravens' impressive O-line vs. Jaguars' not-so-improved D


Much of the focus in this one will be on the quarterbacks, with Ravens veteran Joe Flacco and his pass-heavy attack taking on Jaguars counterpart Blake Bortles and his high-octane offense. But when it comes to which signal caller will fare better, the line play appears to be slanted heavily in favor of visiting Baltimore. And that could very well decide things in a matchup that oddsmakers believe will be a tight one.


The Ravens' offensive line has been solid this season, led once again by elite right guard Marshal Yanda (87.6), who is actually grading slightly lower than he has the past two seasons. Tackles Ronnie Stanley (77.0) and Ricky Wagner (81.0) have also held their own, helping limit Flacco to four sacks over the first two games. The line is by no means perfect, but it has been good enough to help propel the team to a 2-0 start.


By comparison, the Jaguars' defensive front has been a disaster through two games, allowing a combined 65 points to the Packers and San Diego Chargers. Three of the team's four starters at guard or tackle are scoring lower than 49 on PFF, and even defensive tackle Malik Jackson (77.8) has seen his effectiveness wane compared to his previous two seasons. Look for Flacco to have a clean pocket, and for the Baltimore running backs to chew up good chunks of yardage.

Daily fantasy watch: Justin Forsett

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 40.5)


49ers' aversion to penalties vs. Seahawks' flag fiesta


The 49ers are looking to bounce back from last week's 46-27 thumping at the hands of the Carolina Panthers, and they'll be in tough despite Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson still working his way back to 100 percent from a high ankle sprain. But San Francisco has been one of the more disciplined teams in the NFL through two weeks, and that philosophy could lead to strong field position against a Seattle team that needs some work on its discipline.


Despite participating in a league-high 308 plays, the 49ers have had just eight accepted penalties (tied for 30th in the NFL) for 60 accepted yards (31st). Add in the one declined penalty they've incurred, and their nine total penalties ranks last in the league. The list includes three offensive holding calls (one declined), one face mask flag, two illegal contacts and just one false start. Through two games, San Francisco hasn't had a single pass interference call on either side of the ball.


By comparison, Seattle has incurred 18 penalties (fifth-most) for 183 accepted yards (third-most). The Seahawks were whistled for a whopping 10 penalties totaling 114 yards in their 9-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, with Kam Chancellor picking up a pass interference and face mask call and Jermaine Kearse nailed for a pair of offensive pass interference flags. This is nothing new for the Seahawks, who ranked seventh in penalties in 2015, first in 2014, first in 2013, fourth in 2012, second in 2011. A similar lack of discipline Sunday could mean big field position gains for the 49ers, which might translate to points.


Daily fantasy watch: Torrey Smith

 

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 3 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


Pittsburgh will try and improve to 3-0 SU/ATS when they visit fellow undefeated Philadelphia Sunday.


Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and with so many games on the slate it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the schedule.


Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (+3.5, 47)


* Arizona rebounded from its last-second loss against New England in its opener to dismantle Jameis Winston and the Bucs last week. The Cardinals picked off Winston four times, two of them by Marcus Cooper, and Carson Palmer threw three scoring passes despite sitting out most of the fourth quarter.


* Rex Ryan's defense continues to be the biggest problem and it allowed 493 yards in last week's loss and rank 22nd in the league in total defense. Buffalo fired offensive coordinate Greg Roman after the team's 0-2 start, while top wideout Sammy Watkins, has just six catches for 63 yards on the season while battling a foot injury.


LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened this game as 4-point home dogs, but have actually seen some support since then, with the line moving to Bills +3.5. The total opened at 47 and has not moved off the opening number.


TRENDS:


* Cardinals are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
* Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Cardinals' last six games overall.
* Over is 6-2 in Bills' last eight games following a straight up loss.


Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7, 43)


* The Vikings may have lost their starting backfield in less than three weeks, but that doesn't take away from the fact that they have been the best bet in the NFL since the start of the 2015 season, going 16-3 ATS (including playoffs) in that span, including their last seven games overall.


* Carolina had some trouble putting away San Francisco in last week’s 46-27 victory, as the Panthers rolled up 529 yards but also committed four turnovers. Running back Jonathan Stewart is sidelined by a hamstring injury, meaning Fozzy Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne will pick up the slack for the league’s leading rushing attack.


LINE HISTORY: Carolina opened this NFC showdown favored by 7.5-points and have since been bet down to Panthers -7. The total hasn't moved off its opening number of 43.


TRENDS:


* Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus NFC opponents.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Vikings' last six road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Panthers last four home games.


Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 41.5)


* Denver's defense has been stellar, yielding an average of 293 yards per game while tying Seattle for the first in the league with 4.4 allowed per play. Von Miller has been a major contributor to those numbers as he leads the NFL with four sacks, including three - and a forced fumble - in last week's victory over Indianapolis en route to being named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week. They suffered a big loss however, as DeMarcus Ware will miss Sunday's contest after undergoing surgery to have plates inserted in the broken forearm he suffered against the Colts last week.


* Cincinnati will need to shore up against the run as it enters the contest last in the league with an average of 138 rushing yards allowed, although it has yet to surrender a touchdown on the ground. Giovani Bernard was Andy Dalton's favorite target last week, making a career-high nine catches out of the backfield while recording his second 100-yard receiving performance in the NFL. Tight end Tyler Eifert, who has yet to play this season due to an ankle injury, participated in practice on a limited basis Wednesday but likely will miss the game against Denver.


LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened this showdown of AFC contenders favored by a field goal and have been bet up to Bengals -3. The total opened at a low 41 and has been bet up slightly to 41.5.


TRENDS:


* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 4-1 in Broncos last five games following a ATS win.
* Under is 5-1 in Bengals last six games overall.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7, 48)


* While Detroit's offense has relied primarily on the passing game, Matt Stafford will be facing a larger burden after starting running back Ameer Abdullah underwent foot surgery and was placed on injured reserve. Theo Riddick will get first crack at taking over as the lead back, although he has thrived in more of a pass-catching role, tying for the league lead among running backs in 2015 with 80 receptions.


* The popular school of thought was that Aaron Rodgers would return to his MVP level with the return of top wide receiver Jordy Nelson after missing the entire 2015 season, but he has thrown for a combined 412 yards and has a completing percentage of 57.1 over the first two games. Nelson has a touchdown reception in each of the first two games, but he and fellow wideout Randall Cobb are each averaging under 10 yards on 11 catches apiece.


LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as big 8.5-point favorites in this division rivalry, but the Lions have seen some sharp action and the line has moved to Packers -7. The total hasn't moved since opening at 48.


TRENDS:


* Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 14-5 in Lions' last 19 road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Packers' last six home games.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 47)


* Almost an afterthought as an offseason acquisition, wide receiver Mike Wallace has scored all three of Baltimore's touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season. The Ravens, however, have received little from their running game (23rd in NFL) with Justin Forsett and Terrance West combining for 152 yards on 47 carries with no scores.


* Quarterback Blake Bortles was one of the league's top passers last year but put up most of his gaudy numbers playing from behind. Last week was no different as Bortles had no touchdowns and three turnovers through three quarters as Jacksonville trailed 35-0. The Jaguars are tied for 28th in the league, allowing 32.5 points a game, and they could be missing cornerback Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and strong safety Johnathan Cyprien (knee/triceps). Running back Chris Ivory (medical issue) returned to practice this week for the first time since Sept. 9 and will be a big boost to the ground game if fit.


LINE HISTORY: This AFC matchup opened as a Pick'em, but since then bettors have supported the Ravens, moving the line to Baltimore -1. The total opened at 47.5 and has been bet down a half-point to the current number of 47.


TRENDS:


* Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last six games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.


Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-10, 42.5)


* The Cleveland Browns' starting quarterback carousel makes its fifth turn in as many contests and 26th in 17 years on Sunday as third-round rookie Cody Kessler gets the nod against the Miami Dolphins at renovated Hard Rock Stadium. Kessler's task will be that much harder after promising rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman sustained a hand injury in practice on Wednesday.


* Miami's 27th-ranked rushing attack has gone nowhere fast -- and offseason acquisition Arian Foster's groin injury certainly won't help matters. A combination of Jay Ajayi, rookie Kenyan Drake, Isaiah Pead and Damien Williams is expected to carry the mail for the Dolphins, whose leading rusher is actually Tannehill (52 yards). Top target Jarvis Landry had 10 receptions for 137 yards last week and leads the NFL with 17 catches, but former first-round wideout DeVante Parker (eight receptions, 106 yards in his season debut) has been limited in practice this week with an ailing hamstring.


LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened this game favored by a touchdown, but when the news came out Josh McCown wouldn't be playing, books readjusted the line to Miami -10. The total opened at 41.5 and has been bet up to 42.5.


TRENDS:


* Dolphins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Browns' last six road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Dolphins' last six games following a SU loss.


Washington at New York Giants (-3.5, 46.5)


* Pro Bowl selections Odell Beckham Jr. and Josh Norman weren't on their best behavior during their last encounter at MetLife Stadium, but each star insisting they've moved on from the series of ugly incidents, Norman's intent shifts to getting his new team a much-needed win on Sunday when the Washington visits the New York Giants.


* Mild-mannered quarterback Eli Manning isn't interested in the sideshow accompanying Sunday's showdown, as evidenced by his advice to Beckham to "just go play football." Manning has done precisely that by throwing for 368 yards in last week's 16-13 win over New Orleans and will look to eclipse the 300-yard plateau for the third straight game at home.


LINE HISTORY: The G-Men opened this NFC East showdown as 4-point home faves and were bet as high as -4.5. Since then however, it has been mostly Washington money, bringing the line down to Giants -3. The total has only moved slightly, getting bet down to 46 from 46.5.


TRENDS:


* Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 7-0 in Redskins last seven games overall.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in New York.


Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (+1.5, 46.5)


* Derek Carr has passed for 618 yards and four touchdowns in his first two contests while Amari Cooper has made 11 catches for 208 yards but has yet to find the end zone. Carr has gotten off to a fine start this season as he entered Week 3 tied for the league lead with 58 completions without throwing an interception. Khalil Mack, who ranked second in the NFL last season with 15 sacks, remains in search of his first of 2016.


* The Titans will attempt to do something that they haven't achieved since 2013 - win back-to-back games - when they host the Raiders on Sunday. Tennessee has won only two of its last 17 home games, with both victories coming against Jacksonville. While the Titans have scored only 16 points in each of their first two games, their defense has done a stellar job keeping the opposition out of the end zone, joining Seattle as the only teams yet to allow two offensive touchdowns. Tennessee could be in for an offensive bonanza this week, however, as Oakland has allowed more than 1,000 yards over its first two contests.


LINE HISTORY: This AFC matchup opened as a Pick'em, but since then line jumped to Raiders -1 and has since moved to its current number of -1.5. The total opened at 47 and has been bet down slightly to the current number of 46.5.


TRENDS:


* Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in Raiders' last six games in September.
* Over is 5-1 in Titans' last six games in September.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 41)

* San Francisco's dominant win over Los Angeles in Week 1 looked a bit more impressive after the Rams upset Seattle, but its defense was gouged for 46 points and 529 yards by the Carolina Panthers in last week's 46-27 setback. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert was held to 17-of-36 for 243 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions by the Panthers while running back Carlos Hyde managed only 34 yards on 14 carries after churning out 88 yards in the season opener.


* The Seahawks were bottled up by the same Rams that looked completely overmatched in a 28-0 drubbing at San Francisco in Week 1 and have put up 15 points in their first two games. Seattle's defense is in a familiar perch, leading the NFL in total defense (248.5) and points allowed (9.5), but the offense has been shockingly ineffective with the one touchdown in 22 possessions. Running back Thomas Rawls is off to a slow start with 25 yards on 19 carries and left last week's game with an injury, while Christine Michael has been effective with an average of 5.0 yards per carry, but he committed a costly fumble that blunted a comeback against the Rams.


LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened this game as big double digit faves, but the line hasn't moved off -10. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet up to 41.


TRENDS:


* 49ers are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in Seahawks' last eight games overall.


Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 42)


* Los Angeles traded up to the No. 1 pick in the draft to get quarterback Jared Goff, but Fisher insists the team only will play him when he's ready. In the meantime, Keenum ranks last in the NFL among 33 qualifying passers with a 57.8 rating and a 53.8 completion percentage and is guiding an offense that's trying to avoid joining the 1976 Buccaneers as the only teams in the NFL to fail to score a touchdown in the first three games. The weakness in the passing game is not doing any favors for running back Todd Gurley, who is averaging 2.7 yards per carry against defenses stacked to stop him.


* Tampa Bay lost leading rusher Doug Martin for the next three weeks to a hamstring injury and will lean on backup Charles Sims, with Jacquizz Rodgers as the backup. Sims managed 24 yards on nine carries last week at Arizona and has some experience with Jameis Winston in the passing game after hauling in 51 passes for 561 yards and four touchdowns last season. The Buccaneers' defense is struggling, allowing 64 points in the first two weeks, and has yet to force a turnover.


LINE HISTORY: This line opened with the Bucs favored by four points and were bet as high as -5. Since then, the number has returned to the opening number. The total for this game opened at 42 and hasn't moved off that number.


TRENDS:


* Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Under is 4-0 in Rams last four versus NFC opponents.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5, 47)


* Much as he did a year ago when Le'Veon Bell's season ended prematurely due to injury, running back DeAngelo Williams is filling in spectacularly, piling up an NFL-high 237 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and adding another 10 catches and a score. Star wideout Antonio Brown, who reeled in 375 passes over the past three seasons, was limited to four receptions for 39 yards in last week's 24-16 win over Cincinnati but Roethlisberger completed passes to nine different receivers while connecting with Williams and both his tight ends, Jesse James and Xavier Grimble, on scoring strikes. Pittsburgh is yielding tons of yards through the air (347.5 ppg) but has permitted only 16 points in each of the first two games.


* Carson Wentz continues to make Philadelphia's decision to trade up and take him with the No. 2 overall pick out of FCS North Dakota State -- not to mention trading away incumbent Sam Bradford -- look wise by becoming the first rookie since the merger to win his first two starts without tossing an interception. Jordan Matthews is the top target for Wentz with 13 receptions and a score through two games while Trey Burton filled in nicely for injured tight end Zach Ertz last week with five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Mathews has rushed for three touchdowns but is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. The Eagles rank fifth against the pass but could again be without starting cornerback Leodis McKelvin (hamstring).


LINE HISTORY: Since opening at Eagles +4, the number has bounced back and forth between that and +3.5. The line is currently at Eagles +3.5. The total opened at 47 and has yet to move off that number.


TRENDS:


* Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in September.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Under is 5-1 in Steelers' last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Eagles' last five games overall.


San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 51)


* The Indianapolis Colts have allowed an NFL high 73 points and were shredded by opposing passers in their first two games and their secondary has allowed an average of 299 passing yards and yielded a combined 73.6 completion percentage to Matthew Stafford and Trevor Siemian in losses to Detroit and Denver over the first two weeks.


* The Chargers offense that put up 38 points in a blowout of Jacksonville last week, led by Philip Rivers' four touchdown passes. San Diego is not without injury concerns, and Rivers will have to dig deep into his bag of weapons after losing Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen to season-ending injuries. Melvin Gordon is stepping up in the absence of Woodhead and ran for 102 yards on a career-high 24 carries with a touchdown in the 38-14 win over the Jaguars.


LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened this AFC matchup as 2.5-point home faves, but were faded all the way to Colts -1. Since then the money has bounced back a bit on the Colts and currently sits at -1.5. The total opened at 50.5 and has been bet up to 51.


TRENDS:


* Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in Colts last nine versus AFC opponents.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 43)


* New York, which is a couple of missed Nick Folk kicks away from being 2-0, possesses one of the league’s top offensive units thus far. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a bevy of talented receivers in Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and the emergent Quincy Enunwa, and the addition of running back Matt Forte has provided more balance. The defense has been tough on the run, but the secondary has been susceptible, allowing more than 300 passing yards in each game.


* Kansas City has loads of weapons on offense, even with star running back Jamaal Charles having missed the first two games while recovering from last season's torn ACL. Spencer Ware has filled in admirably for Charles, while receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce give Alex Smith a pair of reliable targets. The defense has had a tough time stopping the run but has been stout with its back against the wall, as the Chiefs have allowed touchdowns on just 33.3 percent of opponents’ red-zone trips – fourth-best in the league.


LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened this game favored by a field goal at home, but have been bet down to -2.5. The total opened at 43.5 and has been bet down to 43.


TRENDS:


* Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Jets last four games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven games in September.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 25


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


DET at GB 01:00 PM


U 47.0


MIN at CAR 01:00 PM


U 43.0


CLE at MIA 01:00 PM


U 42.0


BAL at JAC 01:00 PM

O 45.0


OAK at TEN 01:00 PM


TEN +1.5


O 47.5


DEN at CIN 01:00 PM


CIN -3.5


U 42.0


ARI at BUF 01:00 PM


ARI -4.0


U 48.0


SF at SEA 04:05 PM

U 42.0


LA at TB 04:05 PM


U 41.0


PIT at PHI 04:25 PM

PIT -3.5


O 46.0


NYJ at KC 04:25 PM


U 43.0

SD at IND 04:25 PM


SD +1.5


O 51.0

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's Week 3 includes Pennsylvania battle, Saints-Falcons
September 25, 2016


The third week of the NFL season includes a battle between two solid Pennsylvania teams, a rematch of the biggest regular-season game in Saints history and a game in Charlotte, North Carolina, where there is a heavy police presence outside the stadium after a fifth day of protests prompted by the fatal shooting of a black man by a police officer.


Carolina quarterback Cam Newton warmed up while wearing a T-shirt quoting Martin Luther King, Jr.: ''Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.'' He has said the shooting is embarrassing.


In Philadelphia, the Steelers play the Eagles with both teams looking strong even though Pittsburgh is without its top running back Le'Veon Bell and Philadelphia has leaned on a strong debut by rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.


New Orleans hosts Atlanta 10 years after returning to the Superdome in 2006 after Hurricane Katrina a year earlier.


---

 

[CNOTES]

Bills' Watkins; Titans' Walker inactive
September 25, 2016


Wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who had his surgically repaired left foot stepped on by a teammate in a walk-through early in the week, was on the inactive list for the Buffalo Bills' home game against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.


The absence of Watkins means Anthony Lynn made his NFL debut as offensive coordinator without his top receiving threat. Lynn replaced Greg Roman, who was fired Sept. 16.


The Bills also are missing starting cornerback Ronald Darby (hamstring). The Cardinals are missing starting offensive lineman Evan Mathis (foot).


The Tennessee Titans, who host the Oakland Raiders, scratched tight end Delanie Walker, their leading receiver last season. That could hurt against an Oakland defense that gave up 180 yards receiving to tight ends last week in a 35-28 loss to Atlanta. Walker hurt his right hamstring in Tennessee's comeback victory at Detroit.


Tennessee also will start Josh Kline at right guard with Chance Warmack placed on injured reserve with a torn tendon in his right hand Thursday. The Titans picked Kline up off waivers from New England on Sept. 8.


The Green Bay Packers will be missing four defensive starters against the Detroit Lions, as well as key reserve Datone Jones. Packers first-round draft pick Kenny Clark will make his first career start at nose tackle, replacing Letroy Guion, who has a knee injury. The Lions will be missing lineman Ezekiel Ansah and linebacker DeAndre Levy.


The New York Giants will be without starting running back Rashad Jennings (thumb) for their game against the Washington Redskins.


Linebacker Elvis Dumervil was out for the Baltimore Ravens' game at Jacksonville. The Jaguars missed two defensive starters in cornerback Prince Amukamara and tackle Jared Odrick and two offensive line starters in center Brandon Linder and left tackle Kelvin Beachum.


---


WASHINGTON AT NEW YORK GIANTS


Giants: DT Montori Hughes, RB Rashad Jennings, QB Josh Johnson, WR Roger Lewis.


Redskins: QB Nate Sudfeld, WR Josh Doctson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Martrell Spaight, DE Anthony Lanier II, G Arie Kouandjio, DE Kendall Reyes.


---

BALTIMORE AT JACKSONVILLE


Ravens: CB Jerraud Powers, RB Kenneth Dixon, CB Will Davis, RB Javorius Allen, OLB Elvis Dumervil, G/C John Urschel and DT Willie Henry.


Jaguars: QB Brandon Allen, CB Prince Amukamara, C Brandon Linder, LT Kelvin Beachum, DE Jared Odrick, TE Ben Koyack and DE Chris Smith.


---

ARIZONA AT BUFFALO:


Cardinals: S Marqui Christian, G Evan Mathis, DT Olsen Pierre, DT Robert Nkemdiche, DT Frostee Rucker, DT Xavier Williams, LB Kareem Martin.


Bills: DB Colt Anderson, CB Ronald Darby, T Cordy Glenn, QB Cardale Jones, C Patrick Lewis, WR Greg Salas, WR Sammy Watkins.


---


DETROIT AT GREEN BAY:


Lions: DE Ezekiel Ansah, LB DeAndre Levy, LB Antwione Williams, CB Adairius Barnes, G Joe Dahl, OT Cornelius Lucas, TE Orson Charles.


Packers: QB Joe Callahan, CB Sam Shields, S Morgan Burnett, LB Clay Matthews, T Kyle Murphy, DE Datone Jones, DT Letroy Guion.


---


OAKLAND AT TENNESSEE:


Raiders: QB Connor Cook, DB Antonio Hamilton, OT Austin Howard, T Matt McCants, CB Dexter McDonald, TE Mychal Rivera.


Titans: NT Austin Johnson, CB Curtis Riley, CB LeShaun Sims, G Sebastian Tretola, TE Delanie Walker, OLB Aaron Wallace, WR Kendall Wright.


---


DENVER AT CINCINNATI:


Broncos: QB Austin Davis, CB Lorenzo Doss, TE Virgil Green, G Connor McGovern, FS Justin Simmons, OT Donald Stephenson, OLB DeMarcus Ware.


Bengals: WR Cody Core, QB Jeff Driskel, TE Tyler Eifert, CB KeiVarae, G Christian Westerman, DT DeShawn Williams.


---


CLEVELAND AT MIAMI:


Browns: QB Josh McCown, WR Corey Coleman, DB Joe Haden, DB Ibraheim Campbell, OL Shon Coleman, OL Cameron Erving, DE Carl Nassib.


Dolphins: WR Justin Hunter, CB Jordan Lucas, RB Arian Foster, LB Spencer Paysinger, C Mike Pouncey, G Dallas Thomas, DE Terrence Fede.


---


MINNESOTA AT CAROLINA:


Vikings: OLB Kentrell Brothers, C Nick Easton, DT Sharrif Floyd, RB Ronnie Hillman, TE MyCole Pruitt, WR Laquon Treadwell.


Panthers: WR Brenton Bersin, WR Damiere Byrd, LB Jeremy Cash, DE Ryan Delaire, G Tyler Larsen, RB Jonathan Stewart, DB Teddy Williams.

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers RB Artis-Payne expected to start with Stewart out
September 25, 2016


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Cameron Artis-Payne is expected to start at running back for the Carolina Panthers against the Minnesota Vikings because Jonathan Stewart is sidelined with a hamstring injury.


Coach Ron Rivera said Friday Artis-Payne would start unless the Panthers opened the game in a special formation that includes Fozzy Whittaker. Artis-Payne and Whittaker will split carries.


Also inactive for Carolina are wide receivers Brenton Bersin and Damiere Byrd, guard Tyler Larsen, defensive end Ryan Delaire, linebacker Jeremy Cash and cornerback Teddy Williams,


For the Vikings, recently acquired running back Ronnie Hillman is inactive along with wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, center Nick Easton, defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd and Mycole Pruitt.


The Vikings placed running back Adrian Peterson and offensive tackle Matt Kalil on injured reserve this week. Jerick McKinnon will start for Peterson.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday Night Football


CHI at DAL 08:30 PM


DAL -6.0


U 44.5

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s six-pack


Top 6 selections in the Westgate Super Contest this week:


6) Miami Dolphins (395) -9.5– L


5) San Diego Chargers (418) +3– L


4) Jacksonville Jaguars (477) even– L


3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (502) -5.5– L


2) Arizona Cardinals (536) -4– L


1) Pittsburgh Steelers (663) -3.5– L


Top 6 so far this year: 4-14 vs spread. Rough start for public opinion
Through two weeks of the Westgate Super Contest, out of 1,800 people in it, two entrants are 10-0; two are 0-10. Here are their Week 3 picks:


10-0 people:
first 10-0 guy: Bills-Jaguars-Packers-Chiefs-Bears (2-3)
other 10-0 guy: Broncos-Raiders-Steelers-Jets-Chargers (2-3)


0-10 people:
first 0-10 guy: Bengals-Titans-Bills-Eagles-Cowboys (3-2)
other 0-10 guy: Raiders-Cardinals-Giants-Steelers-Cowboys (2-3)







Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday………




1– Broncos 29, Bengals 17– Is Trevor Siemian a better QB than Peyton Manning was last year? Denver scored four TDs, two on plays of 40+ yards, handing Bengals their second loss in a row.


This is shaping up as the Year of the Inexperienced QB


2) Raiders 17, Titans 10– Tennessee had ball on Oakland’s 3-yard line in last 1:00 but roughing call on a Titan lineman pushed it back 15 yards, then a very shaky offensive PI call nullified the tying TD on the next play. Weird seeing Raiders getting calls from the refs. Game was 17-3 at half; Tennessee gained 393 yards but turned ball over three times.


3) Bills 33, Cardinals 18– Arizona turned ball over five times, including last four times they had it; Bills started three drives in Cardinal territory. Buffalo had only 88 passing yards, averaged 3.0 yards/attempt, but they won by two TDs, so who cares? Buffalo scored 31 points LW and fired their OC; no telling what they’ll do to the new guy.


4) Ravens 19, Jaguars 17– Justin Tucker nailed a 54-yard FG with 1:02 left to hand Jax its third loss in row. One TD, four FG tries is bit of a red flag for Ravens, but they’re 3-0, albeit vs Bills-Browns-Jaguars. 3-0 is 3-0.


5) Dolphins 30, Browns 24 OT– Cleveland’s kicker got hurt Friday; guy who replaced him was 3-6 on field goals, missing game-winner at gun of regulation. Browns are 0-3 but they’re fighting hard.


Hue Jackson coached his ass off in this game, but lost; he had rookie QB Kessler making his first NFL start, his third starting QB in three weeks, then he sprinkled in QB-turned-WR-turned-QB Pryor for running situations and he almost won.


When/if Browns get Josh Gordon back, their offense will make a big jump.


Over last 8+ years, Miami is now 11-27 vs spread as a home favorite.


6) Redskins 29, Giants 27– Five lead changes in second half in game with too much jawing, too many penalties (20 accepted for 198 yards). Skins kicked five FGs and passed up an easy one at end of 1st half, screwing up game management so badly that you wonder what would’ve happened if they lost this game by a point.


I like the Shepard kid who plays WR for the Giants; he catches a pass and doesn’t act like he cured cancer by doing so. He just keeps playing.


7) Packers 34, Lions 27– Game was 31-3 at one point; Packers only scored 3 points in second half- they have to be relieved, using 12-yard advantage in field position to score four TDs on eight drives. Detroit fought til the end, throwing for 368 yards, but they scored 13 points in 3 red zone trips.


8) Vikings 22, Panthers 10– Minnesota is on a 16-2 spread run in regular season; they scored only one offensive TD, but ran punt back for a score and picked Newton off three times (+3 in TOs). Vikings had eight sacks; October 23 is shaping up to be interesting, Bradford’s return to Philly.


9) Seahawks 37, 49ers 18– Easy win Seattle dampened by Russell Wilson spraining his left knee. Niners allowed 83 points in last two games.


I’m watching the late games and at one point I just yelled out, “How the bleeping bleep did we lose to the 49ers?!?!?!” No one else was here, so I basically was like an insane person but that happens a lot on Sundays.


10) Rams 37, Bucs 32– Last year, Rams two lost games just like this one, at Minnesota/Baltimore- those losses ruined their season. This year, they found a way to win, after a 70-minute lightning delay at the 2:00 warning. Bucs got to the 10-yard line at the end, but ran out of time.


Odd quirk of Jared Goff not playing yet; his QB coach is Chris Weinke, who went 1-14 as Carolina’s starting QB as a rookie in 2001, and Weinke was a little older, since he had played some minor league baseball. Case Keenum is doing just fine, no reason to rush the young QB into action.


As for Tampa Bay, they traded up to draft a kicker in the second round, and the young man is struggling. Bucs missed a PAT and a 41-yard FG.


11) Eagles 34, Steelers 3– You do realize that if Teddy Bridgewater hadn’t gotten hurt up in Minnesota, then Carson Wentz would be red-shirting this year, just like Jared Goff is. Instead he is heading to the Pro Bowl; in three games, Eagles haven’t even turned the ball over yet. Wow.


How would you like to be a coach at North Dakota State right now who is recruiting a QB for next year? Think his job is fairly easy?


12) Chiefs 24, Jets 3– I’ve never seen drive charts like the Jets’ in this game; they had ball 10 times, and turned it over 7 times, with two of those run back for KC touchdowns. Chiefs’ only TD drive was on a 35-yard drive; hard to tell if they didn’t try that hard on offense because of how well the defense played. KC scored only 10 points on three red zone visits.


13) Colts 26, Chargers 22– If you took San Diego +3, very bad beat; Luck hit TY Hilton for a 63-yard TD with 1:17 left for the win/cover. Chargers fumbled last two times they had ball; they missed a PAT, had only one TD in four visits inside the Indy 30-yard line.


I’m guessing the Pagano family is glad this is over; Chargers’ DC John and Colts’ HC Chuck are brothers. Tough weekend for the family members.


14) Cowboys 31, Bears 17– Good time to play the Bears; they have ton of injuries, but Fox is a good coach and they’ll get better. Prescott continues the amazing run of young QBs having success this season. Will be funny if Dallas keeps winning and then Romo gets healthy; who plays QB then?


For the week so far, favorites are 5-10 vs spread, home teams 7-8, over 8-7.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Capsules
September 25, 2016


PHILADELPHIA (AP) Carson Wentz threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns, a fierce defense shut down Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown and the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-3 on Sunday to remain unbeaten.


The rookie No. 2 overall pick connected with Darren Sproles on a 73-yard, catch-and-run TD and tossed a 12-yard TD pass to Jordan Matthews.


�After beating the Browns and Bears in the first two games, the Eagles (3-0) proved they could compete with the big boys. The Steelers (2-1) averaged 31 points the first two weeks and are considered Super Bowl contenders.


�Pittsburgh was 19-2 against rookie quarterbacks since 2004. But Wentz is no ordinary rookie.


Everyone is jumping on the Wentz wagon in Philadelphia. And he was the No. 3 quarterback until Sam Bradford was traded to Minnesota just eight days before the season opener.


Sproles finished with six catches for 128 yards and Kenjon Barner and rookie Wendell Smallwood each had their first career rushing TDs.


BRONCOS 29, BENGALS 17


CINCINNATI (AP) - Trevor Siemian threw a career-high four touchdown passes in his first road start and was nearly perfect under fourth-quarter pressure, rallying Denver over Cincinnati.


The defending Super Bowl champions are 3-0 under Siemian, who took over after Peyton Manning retired and Brock Osweiler went to Houston. He completed 11 of 12 passes while rallying the Broncos to a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns.


The previous Bronco to throw for four touchdowns was Manning in 2014 against the Dolphins. Siemian went 23 of 35 for 312 yards and a passer rating of 132.1.


Siemian had a 41-yard touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders to get it started, and stood in under a heavy rush and connected with Demaryius Thomas on a 55-yard score with 4:23 left to clinch it. Sanders finished with nine catches for 117 yards.


The Bengals got their dormant running game going, but were still out of sync as they fell to 1-2 for the first time in five years. Jeremy Hill ran for a pair of touchdowns and 97 yards.


PACKERS 34, LIONS 27


GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - Aaron Rodgers threw for 205 yards and four touchdowns, including two in the first half to Jordy Nelson, and Green Bay snapped out of its offensive funk before holding off Detroit.


Rodgers was 15 of 24, leading the Packers to touchdowns on their first three series. Nelson had 101 yards on six catches, returning to the form that made him one of the NFL's best receivers before missing the 2015 season with a knee injury.


The Packers (2-1) led 31-10 at the half before the Lions slowly chipped away.


Marvin Jones' 35-yard touchdown catch with 3:34 left got Detroit (1-2) within seven. Jones had a career-high 205 yards on six receptions.


Matthew Stafford passed for 385 yards and three scores for the Lions, who held advantages in total yardage (418-324) and time of possession, holding the ball for 35 minutes.


COWBOYS 31, BEARS 17


ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) - Dak Prescott led scoring drives on all four Dallas possessions in the first half before throwing his first career touchdown pass, and the Cowboys beat Chicago to snap an eight-game home losing streak.


With his second straight win, Prescott doubled the number of victories the Cowboys (2-1) had in 14 games without injured quarterback Tony Romo over three seasons before the rookie fourth-round pick showed up. Prescott was 19 of 24 for 248 yards in Dallas' first home win since last year's opener.


Prescott's first TD pass was a 17-yarder to Dez Bryant for a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter, and he's up to 99 throws without an interception to start his career. Philadelphia rookie Carson Wentz has 102, and those are the two highest career-opening totals in NFL history.


Rookie Ezekiel Elliott had his first 100-yard game for Dallas, finishing with 140 yards on 30 carries and a 14-yard run when he hurdled safety Chris Prosinski.


Chicago is 0-3.


VIKINGS 22, PANTHERS 10


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Sam Bradford threw a touchdown pass to Kyle Rudolph, Marcus Sherels returned a punt for a score and Minnesota snapped Carolina's 14-game home winning streak.


The Vikings (3-0) put the clamps on Cam Newton, intercepting the league's reigning MVP three times and sacking him eight times, one of those resulting in a safety by Danielle Hunter.


The eight sacks were the second-most ever against Newton.


The Panthers (1-2) had come in averaging 42 points per game in their past three home games, but could do little after bolting to a 10-0 lead. The Vikings held Carolina receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess without a catch.


Bradford improved to 2-0 as the Vikings starter, completing 18 of 28 passes for 171 yards. With Adrian Peterson injured, Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon combined for 70 yards rushing on 22 carries. Rudolph had seven catches for 70 yards, including a 15-yard TD catch to put the Vikings ahead for good in the early in the third quarter.


SEAHAWKS 37, 49ERS 18


SEATTLE (AP) - Russell Wilson threw for 243 yards and a touchdown before suffering a left knee injury and Seattle rolled to a rout of San Francisco.


Wilson was injured with about 10 minutes to go in the third quarter getting pulled down awkwardly on a sack by San Francisco's Eli Harold. Harold was called for a horse collar penalty, but the bigger concern was how he fell on Wilson's left leg.


Wilson stayed down on the field for a few moments before walking off. Wilson missed the first play of his career due to injury, but returned to throw one more pass. The completion led to the third of Steven Hauschka's three field goals for a 27-3 lead and after that Wilson's day was done.


COLTS 26, CHARGERS 22


INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Andrew Luck shook off a sore throwing shoulder, then watched T.Y. Hilton break a tackle on a 63-yard touchdown pass with 1:17 to play, giving Indianapolis a victory over San Diego.


It's the second time this season Luck has produced a late score to give Indy a lead in the waning seconds.


But, unlike the season opener two weeks ago, the Colts (1-2) recovered two fumbles in the final 62 seconds to preserve the win.


Luck finished 24 of 37 for 331 yards with one TD and one interception to earn his 15th come-from-behind win - not bad for a guy who missed practice Wednesday and did limited work Thursday in practice because of the injury.

REDSKINS 29, GIANTS 27


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) - Dustin Hopkins kicked a 37-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter for his fifth of the game and Washington Redskins avoid a near-disastrous 0-3 start with a win over the penalty-and error-prone New York.


Kirk Cousins threw touchdown passes of 44 yards to DeSean Jackson and 55 to Jamison Crowder as the banged-up Redskins (1-2) handed new coach Ben McAdoo his first loss with the Giants (2-1).


Su'a Cravens ended the Giants' final drive with an interception in New York territory. It was Eli Manning's second pick of the quarter, with the other coming in the end zone by Quinton Dunbar after New York got to the Redskins 15 on a big play by Odell Beckham Jr.


RAMS 37, BUCCANEERS 32


TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Case Keenum threw for the Rams' first touchdown since relocating back to Los Angeles, and Todd Gurley rushed for two more scores in a victory over Tampa Bay.


The Rams (2-1), who did not get into the end zone in the first two games of the season, also scored on Ethan Westbrooks' 77-yard fumble return and Tavon Austin's 43-yard reception in the fourth quarter before thunder and lightning caused a 69-minute weather delay with two minutes remaining.


Keenum, who used three field goals to beat Seattle 9-3 in Week 2, completed 14 of 25 passes for 190 yards, two TDs and one interception, which Bucs linebacker Kwon Alexander returned 38 yards for a first-quarter touchdown.


In addition to throwing a TD pass to Austin for a late 11-point lead, he got the Rams on track early with his 44-yard scoring pass to Brian Quick for the franchise's first TD as the L.A. Rams since 1994.


Jameis Winston threw for 405 yards and three TDs for Tampa Bay (1-2). He threw an interception that set up one of Gurley's two 1-yard touchdown runs and was stripped by the Rams' Robert Quinn on the fumble that Westbrooks returned up the left sideline for a 31-20 lead.


CHIEFS 24, JETS 3


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - Kansas City Chiefs returned two turnovers for touchdowns, intercepted three passes in the end zone and forced eight turnovers total in a victory over New York.


Marcus Peters had two of the picks for the Chiefs (2-1), including the first of four off the Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fourth quarter. Daniel Sorenson had another, Derrick Johnson returned his 55 yards for a touchdown, and D.J. White snagged his in the end zone with 1:54 left in the game.


The eight turnovers were the most by the Jets (1-2) since they set a franchise record with 10 in a loss to the New England Patriots on Nov. 21, 1976.


Alex Smith was 25 of 33 for 237 yards and a touchdown for Kansas City, while Spencer Ware added 75 yards rushing. But it was the performance of the defense - and all those Jets turnovers - that helped the Chiefs bounced back from their first regular-season defeat in 12 games.

RAVENS 19, JAGUARS 17


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Justin Tucker kicked a 54-yard field goal with 1:02 remaining, lifting Baltimore over Jacksonville.


Tucker raised both arms in celebration as his fourth field goal of the day split the uprights with plenty of distance. The Ravens improved to 3-0 for the third time in franchise history and first since 2009.


The Jaguars fell to 0-3 for the third time in the last four years and surely will hear more talk about coach Gus Bradley's job security. Bradley is now 12-39 in four seasons, the second-worst winning percentage of any NFL coach with at least 50 games.


Tucker also made kicks of 43, 42 and 37 yards.


BILLS 33, CARDINALS 18


ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) - LeSean McCoy scored twice and safety Aaron Williams returned a botched field-goal snap 53 yards for a touchdown in leading Buffalo over Arizona.


Quarterback Tyrod Taylor also scored on a 20-yard run at a time the Rex Ryan-coached Bills spent the past week taking the brunt of criticism after opening the season 0-2.


The win also came on the heels of Ryan firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman and replacing him with running backs coach Anthony Lynn.


McCoy scored on 24- and 5-yard runs, and finished with 110 yards rushing after combining for just 117 in his first two games. Taylor had 76 yards rushing, including a 49-yarder, the longest by a quarterback in team history.


Arizona is 1-2.


RAIDERS 17, TITANS 10


NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - Derek Carr threw for 249 yards and a touchdown, and Oakland beat Tennessee with its defense finally coming up with some big plays.


The Raiders (2-1) forced three turnovers and had a sack after coming into this game having given up more yards than any team since at least 1940 through the first two games. Coach Jack Del made a couple of lineup changes, starting linebacker Cory James and rookie safety Karl Joseph, their top draft pick.


Oakland never trailed and took control in the second quarter, scoring 10 points and outgaining the Titans 129-40 to take a 17-3 lead into halftime.


The Titans (1-2) rallied from a 15-3 deficit a week ago in beating Detroit 16-15, and they thought they at least had forced overtime when Marcus Mariota found Andre Johnson alone in the end zone for a touchdown. But officials flagged Johnson for interference on Raiders cornerback TJ Carrie.


DOLPHINS 30, BROWNS 24, OT


MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) - Jay Ajayi scored on an 11-yard run with 8:26 left in overtime, and Miami escaped with a win over Cleveland.


Ajayi's winner came one play after Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill found a wide-open Jarvis Landry for a 32-yard gain, as the Dolphins (1-2) avoided what would be their first 0-3 start since 2011.


Tannehill threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns for Miami, and Landry caught seven of those passes for 120 yards.


Cody Parkey missed three field goals for Cleveland, including a 46-yarder as time expired in regulation.

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Falcons at Saints
September 25, 2016


The Week 3 card wraps up at the Mercedes Benz Superdome on Monday night with an NFC South battle. The Saints have stumbled to an 0-2 start, even though the two losses have come in the final seconds. Meanwhile, the Falcons rebounded from a Week 1 home setback to the Buccaneers to beat the Raiders as a road underdog last Sunday. Will the Superdome provide the Saints with some Monday night magic or will the Falcons spoil the party in the Big Easy?


LAST WEEK


New Orleans squandered a double-digit lead in its 35-34 Week 1 setback to Oakland in spite of racking up more than 500 yards of offense. The Saints’ defense improved in Week 2 by holding the Giants’ offense out of the end zone. However, New York returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown and tacked on three field goals to edge New Orleans, 16-13. The Saints managed a cover as 3 ½-point underdogs, in spite of accumulating 288 yards offensively. Drew Brees’ passing numbers dropped from 423 against Oakland to 263 yards against New York, while the Saints cashed their fourth consecutive road UNDER since last season.


Atlanta has played a pair of high-scoring contests so far, cashing OVERS against Tampa Bay and Oakland. The Falcons traveled to the west coast and took care of business against the Raiders in a 35-28 victory as four-point underdogs to improve to 1-1. After Oakland grabbed a 14-13 lead early in the third quarter, Atlanta scored three touchdowns to put the game away and move its record to 6-2 ATS as an underdog under Dan Quinn. Matt Ryan torched Oakland’s porous defense with 396 yards and three touchdown passes, while Atlanta rushed for 139 yards, one week after being held to 52 yards against Tampa Bay.


LINE MOVEMENT


New Orleans opened as 3 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook, but that number has dropped to three at many spots with no juice on the Saints at that number. Meanwhile, some books have listed the Saints at -2 ½, but you have to lay -120 to back the home team. The total is set at 53 ½ at most books, while several outlets have the total sitting at 54.


MARCHING FORWARD


The Saints swept the season series from the Falcons last season, including a 31-21 triumph as three-point home underdogs to hand Atlanta its first loss after a 5-0 start. New Orleans used an early blocked punt return for a touchdown, similar to Steve Gleason’s blocked punt that led to a score in the Saints’ victory over the Falcons in 2006 to re-open the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina.


The Falcons couldn’t pick up revenge in the final matchup of the season, losing at home to the Saints, 20-17 as six-point favorites. New Orleans has won and covered four of the past five meetings at the Superdome, while the Saints are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 matchups in the series.


NOT SO SUPER


The Superdome is one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL. However, the Saints haven’t defended their home field well from a betting perspective the last few seasons by compiling a 4-10-1 ATS mark as a favorite since 2014. In 2013, New Orleans owned a terrific 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS mark in the Big Easy, but the Saints have actually lost 10 of their past 14 home contests since November 2014.


OVER THE HILL


The Falcons closed out last season with 10 consecutive UNDERS, but have started the 2016 campaign with a pair of OVERS. Atlanta has finished UNDER the total in each of the past three trips to New Orleans, but those totals closed at 53 ½, 56, and 52 ½. Monday’s total is set at 53 ½, as the Falcons are 8-2 to the UNDER in their past 10 opportunities with a total of 50 or higher since 2014.


COOL AS ICE


Since Matt Ryan took over at quarterback for the Falcons, Atlanta has performed well as a Monday night underdog. The Falcons have compiled a 4-1 ATS record in five opportunities as a Monday ‘dog, including an outright victory over the Eagles in Week 1 last season. However, three of those covers came as a double-digit underdog, while Atlanta has lost five straight primetime games to New Orleans since 2009.


HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on this NFC South matchup, “Falling to 0-3 is well documented to present a great challenge to making the playoffs in the NFL making this a critical Monday night home game for the Saints. The pressure on the 1-1 Falcons may be just as great, however. Atlanta was competitive in Dan Quinn’s first season finishing 8-8, but Atlanta wound up just 1-5 in division games and Quinn is now 1-6 vs. NFC South foes after losing at home in the opening week against Tampa Bay.”


“Through two weeks, Ryan has the league’s #1 quarterback rating and he could build on those numbers against a New Orleans defense that has allowed 336 passing yards per game on 8.5 yards per attempt so far this season. Atlanta’s pass defense hasn’t been significantly stronger as a Saints offense that has posted 6.4 yards per play this season could also have great results, but it is the Falcons leading the league with 7.0 yards per play through the first two weeks with 355 passing yards per game as the Monday night total is understandably the highest of the week,” Nelson notes.


FUTURES


The Saints opened the season at 40/1 odds to win Super Bowl LI at the Westgate, but those odds have ballooned to 100/1 following the 0-2 start. Meanwhile, the Falcons were also listed at 40/1 when the season began, as their odds fell to 80/1 after splitting their first two contests.

 

[CNOTES]

Opening Line Report - Week 4
September 26, 2016


Records aren’t always what they seem in the NFL, as varying degrees of difficulty from schedule to schedule often plays tricks on the minds of bettors.


The Panthers and Bengals, for example, both fell to 1-2 with home defeats Sunday, but considering the teams Carolina (Denver, Minnesota) and Cincinnati (Pittsburgh, Denver) have lost to, it’s far too early to dismiss either.


Meanwhile, which of the five 3-0 clubs are for real?


It’s hard to make that case for Baltimore just yet. With their three wins coming against Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville (a combined record of 1-8), the Ravens still have plenty of convincing to do.


It’s easier to make the case for the Broncos, Vikings, Patriots and Eagles, as each has logged impressive wins.


So, as you’re handicapping Week 4 in the NFL, be prudent about how much weight you’re giving to records. Looks can be deceiving.


Here are Sunday night’s Las Vegas consensus lines for next week’s card. Totals are from CG Technology.


Thursday, Sept. 29


Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)


The Bengals have dropped two in a row, unable to hold serve at home Sunday against the Broncos following last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. The line for next week’s Thursday nighter opened a manageable -6 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, although that number didn’t last long, as it moved to -6.5 at the Westgate and opened -7 at other Vegas books.


The Dolphins, as 10-point favorites, needed overtime to get past the lowly Browns and third-string quarterback Cody Kessler on Sunday.


“It’s shocking how Miami plays up to certain teams and down to certain teams,” Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said Sunday night. “I’ve never understood that team for years now. At times they look good, and at times, it’s like how can they be this bad and stupid. They really should have lost today.”


Sunday, Oct. 2


Indianapolis Colts (-2, 49.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, London


Indianapolis was bet from -1 to -2.5 at the Westgate within the first hour of wagering Sunday, while the line remained as low as -1 at CG Technology. Here’s a friendly reminder that if you’re planning a night next Saturday, get your bet in before you hit the town, because this game from London kicks off early (9:30 a.m. ET ).


Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-9.5, 45.5)


The Browns are 0-3, but Salmons stresses wins against the Ravens last week and the Dolphins this week narrowly escaped them, and that their season-opening loss in Philadelphia looks better with every Eagles victory.


Yet, the Browns were spotted 10 points by Miami and are close to double-digit dog distinction again next week in Washington (the Wynn, in fact, was dealing Washington -10 even). The Dolphins and Redskins are not exactly NFL powerhouses. How bad can Cleveland be?


“They’re playing a third string quarterback, and it’s hard to play back to back on the road, especially when you lose the first one,” Salmons said. “Cleveland had a million injuries today, too, but they played hard, I’ll give them that. They should have won. I don’t know if that says a lot about Cleveland or it says a lot bad about Miami.”


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-4.5)


While CG Technology on Sunday was dealing New England -4.5, Salmons is waiting to learn more about the Patriots’ quarterback situation before posting a number.


Seattle Seahawks (-1) at New York Jets


CG Technology put Seattle -1 on its board Sunday night, and the Westgate offered -2.5 on its advanced Week 4 lines issued last Tuesday. But if Russell Wilson can’t go and Trevone Boykin replaces him, the Jets will be favored, according to Salmons.


Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons


Considering the unrest in Charlotte this week, it’s hard to dismiss the distraction factor in the Panthers’ loss to Minnesota on Sunday, and Carolina is chalked up as the 3- to 4-point favorite on the road next week vs. the Falcons.

Detroit Lions (-2) at Chicago Bears


CG Technology opened Detroit -1 with an immediate shift to -2, while the Westgate opened -2.5.


Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6.5, 40.5)


There was a mix of -6.5s and -7s around Las Vegas on Sunday night, as Houston comes off extra rest to host this division rival.


Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 46.5)


Both of the Raiders’ wins this season have come on the road, and they’re now 7-1 ATS in their last eight away games, dating back to last season. Next week, they get over a field goal against a Ravens team that may be overrated by the public after three wins vs. inferior competition. While most Vegas books opened Baltimore -3.5, William Hill U.S. went -4.


Denver Broncos (-3, 44.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs


The Westgate opened the Broncos -2.5, but was pushed to -3 after about an hour of betting Sunday night. CG Technology opened -2 and moved to -2.5. Plenty of bettors will be happy to lay a field goal or less with the 3-0 Broncos in this spot.


“The simple analysis is Denver had the best defense in the NFL last year and you take away (Peyton) Manning and you put in some rookie (sic) no one knew anything about – and it’s easy to say anyone can throw a spiral, but Manning couldn’t, and this kid (Trevor Siemian) can throw it some,” Salmons said. “He’s gonna throw silly passes here and there, but their defense is still awesome. Each week Denver looks better and better and better.”


Siemian will eventually have to deal with adversity, however.


“I still think he’s gonna play some silly games and have some bad turnover games,” Salmons said. “It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s gotta happen at some point. There were a lot of people who thought it would happen (Sunday at Cincinnati), and it didn’t. He played great today.”


Dallas Cowboys (-2) at San Francisco 49ers


Different opinions were expressed by bookmakers at CG and the Westgate, as the shops opened Dallas -1.5 and -3, respectively. Naturally, the smaller number was bet up to -2 (-115) and the bigger number was bet down to -2.5


New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)


Most shops opened San Diego -3.5, while CG was on its own at -4.


Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-9, 43.5)


The Rams have shaken off their Week 1 embarrassment with back-to-back straight-up wins as underdogs, last week vs. Seattle and this week at Tampa. They’ll be catching a big number again next week, although CG was bet down from 10 to 9 on Sunday night.


Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 47.5)


While Pitt opened as high as -5.5 for Le’Veon Bell’s expected return, Coasts opened -5 and moved to -4.5 on Sunday night.


Monday, Oct. 3


New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 43.5)


The Wynn opened Minnesota -3.5 and CG hung -4.5, while all the other Vegas shops went with -4.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ODDS & PICKS


10th Sep 2016 | By: Aaron Ryan


One of the most beloved weekly sporting events is Monday Night Football. It’s hard to find anybody that has never heard Hank Williams Jr. belt out “Are you ready for some football?” Monday Night Football is a global phenomenon nowadays, as the games are broadcast in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Portugal, Brazil, and other countries.


The brainchild of Roone Arledge in 1970, this weekly event has been a staple of the National Football League and a favorite of bettors since the inception of Monday Night Football. Now on ESPN, it is the last chance for gamblers to get back some of Sunday’s losses or build off of a profitable weekend before looking ahead to the next week. Because of television ratings, primetime football often draws some of the best matchups, as fans, bettors, oddsmakers, bookies, and people that don’t even care about football gather around the tube and enjoy.


Don’t let the NFL fool you. They know that fantasy football and NFL betting drive the ratings bonanza that they see every Thursday, Sunday afternoon, and especially on Sunday night and Monday night. Oddsmakers are prepared for these primetime matchups because they draw some of the biggest betting handles of the week. Shouldn’t you be prepared as well?


The 2016 Monday Night Football schedule is one of the best in recent memory and every game features profit potential for the astute handicapper. We recommend BetDSI for all of your NFL needs, including Monday Night Football, because an exclusive 200 percent sign-up bonus awaits with the promo code BANG200. Impress your friends and coworkers on Monday morning with your knowledge of the odds for the game and the upcoming week of action courtesy of our Live Lines page and then make your wagers and sit back and cheer your side or total on to victory.


Here is a look at the 2016 Monday Night Football schedule (all games 8:15 p.m. ET unless otherwise noted) we also listed the Opening CG Technology Odds from April 21st, checkout our matchup page for updated odds:


Date Game Preview & Pick Opening Odds 4/21/16


Sept. 12 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins Steelers -3


Sept. 12 St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Rams -2


Sept. 19 Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Bears -2.5


Sept. 26 Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Saints -1.5


Oct. 3 New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings Vikings -6


Oct.10 Tampa Bay Bucs @ Carolina Panthers Panthers -10


Oct. 17 New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals -4


Oct. 24 Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos Broncos -6.5


Oct. 31 Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Vikings -2.5


Nov. 7 Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks Seahawks -10


Nov. 14 Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants Bengals -2


Nov. 21 Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders Raiders -2


Nov. 28 Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles Packers -3.5


Dec. 5 Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets Jets -2


Dec. 12 Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Patriots -9


Dec. 19 Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins Panthers -3


Dec. 26 Detriot Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Cowboys -5


Quick Breakdown of Results, for more details scroll to bottom:


2 year Average points scored 46.79
2 year Average margin of victory 8.8
2 year Favorites 11-23-1 ATS
2 year Over 17-17 ATS


Last year Division faves went 1-2-1 ATS with the total going under 4 out of 4 times
What a great list of games! Long-standing division rivalries get their time to shine and some compelling cross-conference matchups featuring prospective playoff teams like Baltimore vs. Arizona, the New York Giants vs. Miami, Chicago vs. San Diego, and Kansas City vs. Green Bay. The atmosphere is always electric for these games and the crowd’s involvement is just another example of how much Monday Night Football means to football fans. Check back every week as we add links to our Monday Night Football game previews to give you the best, most detailed picks and prognostications.


The beauty of Monday Night Football is that you never know what you’re going to see. Remember Terrell Owens’s infamous “Sharpie” touchdown celebration on October 14, 2002 that sent shockwaves through the NFL? How about Mike Vick’s six touchdown performance in Philadelphia’s blowout win over Washington on November 15, 2010? John Elway and Joe Montana traded touchdowns for the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs back in 1994 in one of the most memorable MNF games ever. Tony Dorsett’s 99-yard touchdown run was a MNF highlight in 1983.


The New Orleans Saints returned to the Superdome first the first time after Hurricane Katrina did severe damage to the facility for Monday Night Football on September 25, 2006 in front of a boisterous sell-out crowd and won 23-2 over the Atlanta Falcons. Remember Joe Theismann’s broken leg? The replacement refs in 2012 with the unbelievable Green Bay vs. Seattle finish?


There are so many more memorable moments that we can’t possibly list all of them. How can you not love Monday Night Football?


We’re excited about another season of Monday Night Football on ESPN and you should be as well. Keep it tuned right here to BangTheBook for informative NFL previews on every game, especially the Monday Night Football matchups. Don’t forget to make BetDSI your home for betting on football throughout the 2015 regular season. Their reputation is second to none in the industry and the amount of wagering options for big games like Monday Night Football include fair side and total lines, a collection of prop bets, halftime wagering, and live betting.


In 2015 Favorites went 4-12-1, with Underdogs winning straight-up 8 out the 12 wins. Overs/Unders 5-12


2015 Monday Night Football


WK Matchup Spread Score ATS Result SU Winner


1 Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons +3/55 24-26 Underdog/Under Falcons


1 Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers +2.5/41.5 3-20 Underdog/Under 49ers


2 New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts -6/45 20-7 Underdog/Under Jets


3 Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers -4.5/47 28-38 Favorite/Over Packers


4 Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks -10/43 10-13 Underdog/Under Seahawks


5 Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers -4/45.5 24-20 Underdog/Under Steelers


6 New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5/50.5 7-27 Favorite/Under Eagles


7 Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals -10/49.5 18-26 Underdog/Under Cardinals


8 Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers -5/45.5 26-29 Underdog/Over Panthers


9 Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers -3.5/49 22-19 Underdog/Under Bears


10 Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals -10/46.5 10-6 Underdog/Under Texans


11 Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots -7/47.5 13-20 PUSH/Under Patriots


12 Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns -6/41 33-27 Underdog/Over Ravens


13 Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins -2/43 19-16 Underdog/Under Cowboys


14 New York Giants at Miami Dolphins +2.5/47.5 31-24 Favorite/Over Giants


15 Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints -2.5/52 35-27 Favorite/Over Lions


16 Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos -4/39 17-20 Underdog/Under Broncos




2015 Average points scored 41.47
2015 Average margin of victory 7.12

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Monday, September 26


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football betting preview and odds: Falcons at Saints
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Saints quarterback Drew Brees has a potent receiving duo in Willie Snead and Brandon Cooks, who have combined for 27 catches and four touchdowns through two weeks.


Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 53.5)


The New Orleans Saints will commemorate one of the more noteworthy games in franchise history when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night in a matchup of longtime NFC South rivals. It will mark the 10-year anniversary of the re-opening of the Superdome after the venue was forced to close for one season in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.


While emotions certainly will not be as high as in New Orleans' win over Atlanta a decade ago, the Saints can use any edge to avoid an 0-3 start after dropping their first two games by a combined four points. "This is an important division game," said New Orleans coach Sean Payton, readily acknowledging the significance is far less than the game from 2006. "One team is 0-2 and trying to get a win, and another team that's 1-1." The Falcons rebounded from a 31-24 home loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1 with a 35-28 road win last week at Oakland, which squeezed out a 35-34 victory at New Orleans in the season opener.


TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.


LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 3-point home favorites for this divisional clash. The spread held fairly solid all week until a drop to -2.5 on Saturday afternoon. The total opened at a lofty 53.5 and has yet to move off the origianl number. Click here to view complete line history.


POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+2) - New Orleans (+4) + home field (-3) = New Orleans -1


KEY INJURIES:


Falcons - WR M. Sanu (Probable Monday, ankle), WR J. Jones (Probable Monday, calf), WR J. Hardy (Questionable Monday, shoulder), LB B. Reed (Questionable Monday, shoulder), LB B. Campbell (Questionable Monday, ankle), LB P. Worrilow (Out Monday, groin), CB J. Collins (Eligible Week 5, suspension).


Saints - WR W. Snead IV (Questionable Monday, toe), DE C. Jordan (Questionable Monday, knee), LB D. Ellerbe (Questionable Monday, quadricep), S K. Vaccaro (Questionable Monday, ankle), T T. Armstead (Out Monday, knee), TE J. Hill (Early October, ankle).


WEATHER REPORT: There is a 25 percent chance of thunderstorms in the New Orleans area for Monday night, but that shouldn't be much of an issue underneath the roof of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Tricky situation as the Falcons have fared well as a visitor in this series, going 27-10 ATS since 1978, but the Saints are 29-8 SU and 25-11-1 ATS at home under Sean Payton against foes off a win. Stronger edge may lie in the total as Atlanta has played OVER in 4 straight Monday away appearances, while New Orleans is 5-1 OVER in their last 6 Monday Night home games."

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Matt Ryan had his fewest touchdown passes (21) since his rookie season in 2015, but he off to a fast start with 730 yards passing with five scores and one interception while leading the league with a 121.4 quarterback rating. There is cause for concern in the passing game with star wide receiver Julio Jones sitting out his second straight practice Friday due to a calf injury, but Atlanta coach Dan Quinn said he expects him to play. The Falcons are receiving solid production from the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who have combined for 181 rushing yards and 11 receptions. Atlanta's defense ranks 29th overall, allowing an average of 412.5 yards per game.


ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): New Orleans was horrendous on defense last season and little has changed -- it ranked 31st in the league with a staggering 451.5 yards surrendered and has been torched through the air for an average of 336.0 yards. Keeping the defense off the field would be easier if the Saints could crank up their running game, with lead back Mark Ingram producing 88 rushing yards on only 21 attempts, including nine carries in last week's 19-16 loss at the New York Giants. "From a rushing standpoint, I think we had some early positive runs, and all of a sudden we end up with the game over and only 13 rushing attempts (overall)," Payton said of the Week 2 loss. "I don't like the balance there." Quarterback Drew Brees has a potent receiving duo in Willie Snead and Brandon Cooks, who have combined for 27 catches and four touchdowns.

TRENDS:


* Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC South.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South.
* Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. NFC South.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Saints last 7 home games.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the home favorite Saints at a rate of 65 percent and the Over is picking up the majority of the totals wagers with 75 percent.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas books enjoy stellar NFL Sunday as public gets clobbered in Week 3


“The Bills set it all up by killing parlays, teasers and moneyline parlays. Philly was the second-biggest decision."


Every dog has its day, so the cliché goes. For many of them, that day was Sunday, meaning sportsbooks around Las Vegas did very well – and bettors took it squarely on the chin.


Eight underdogs covered in Sunday’s NFL action, including six notching outright wins, with major decisions coming from Buffalo’s upset of Arizona and Philadelphia’s thrashing of Pittsburgh. The Bills, 5-point home underdogs, rolled 33-18, while the Eagles ripped the Steelers 34-3 catching 3.5 at home.


Other outright ‘dog winners included Minnesota (+6), 22-10 at Carolina; Denver (+3.5), 29-17 at Cincinnati; Washington (+3.5), 29-27 at the New York Giants; and Los Angeles (+3.5), 37-32 at Tampa Bay.


“It was a good day,” said Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM Resorts, which operates sportsbooks at the MGM, Mirage and several more properties on the Las Vegas Strip. “The Bills set it all up by killing parlays, teasers and moneyline parlays. Philly was the second-biggest decision.


“We are going to have to give a good amount back on the Cowboys, but we will have a good day.”


If not for Dallas dropping Chicago 31-17 laying 6.5, it would have rated even better for Rood – “An 8 out of 10” if Chicago had covered, he said – and for his peers around town. But the Cowboys actually helped downtown at the Golden Nugget.


“It was a great day. The underdogs were great,” said Tony Miller, sportsbook director at the Nugget. “The Bills and the Eagles were monsters for us. Plus, we needed Dallas.”


Over at the Westgate Superbook, Jay Kornegay had similarly good results.


“It was a very solid day for us. We won our three biggest decisions – the Vikings, the Bills and the Eagles. We also won a share of the smaller games,” Kornegay said, noting the Superbook would have liked to see Chicago join that outright winners list. “Chicago outright would have made an impact. It will still end up a very solid day, but not a record day.”


A quartet of games – three from the early kickoffs – made for a strong Sunday at CG Technology books, including the M, Cosmopolitan and Venetian.


“We’ve had better days, but it’s right up there,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG. “We started ahead early after Arizona, Carolina and the Giants lost. Then we capped it off with the Eagles, which was our biggest decision of the day.”


Added Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point: “The Eagles and Broncos were the best games. It was a very good day, weekend and week. I was very happy with the handle and win.”


Miami falling short as 10-point home chalk in its 30-24 victory over Cleveland proved key for Wynn Las Vegas, which actually lost on the Cards-Bills decision due to some big late action on Buffalo.


“The Bengals were good for us. The Dolphins were good for us – the best one of the day,” said Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for the Wynn. “We had a good day, but we’ll give back half of it on the Cowboys tonight.”


Dallas notwithstanding, the bookmakers’ side of the counter won going away this Sunday.


“Not the best day ever,” Miller said, “but a good one.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Monday, September 26




NFL Underdog trends thus far in 2016-17:


Home Dogs: 8-5 ATS (61.54%)


Away Dogs: 19-14 ATS (57.58%)


Overall Dogs: 27-19 ATS (58.7%)

 

[CNOTES]

Falcons, Saints clash
September 23, 2016



Atlanta Falcons (1-1 SU; 1-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans (0-2 SU; 1-1 ATS)


Sportsbook.ag Odds: New Orleans -3; Total set at 54


Almost 10 years to the day (Sept 25, 2006) of the famous Steve Gleason punt block against Atlanta to re-open the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina, the Saints get to host the Falcons again on MNF to close out Week 3. It should be another electric atmosphere inside the Dome as New Orleans looks to get their first win of the 2016 campaign and get it over a division rival as well.


New Orleans enters this game as three-point home favorites and right off the bat my initial gut reaction to that is that it's a point or two too low.


Yes, the Saints are 0-2 and still seemingly have defensive issues, but their two losses have come by four points combined. A stop on a two-point conversion in Week 1, and clutching out in OT last week would have this team at 2-0 SU, so their 0-2 SU record isn't nearly as bad as some of the other 0-2's around the league (Cleveland, Chicago, etc).


Furthermore, the Saints also swept the Falcons a year ago – both times as underdogs – and should be able to keep those winning ways vs. Atlanta going in Week 3.


For all the attention that New Orleans gets for having a suspect defense behind QB Drew Brees, and rightfully so, what may be lost on bettors this week is the fact that Atlanta's defense isn't much better. Yes, the Saints have allowed 451 yards per game so far this year (2nd worst in the league), but they have tightening things up when they are in their own redzone, allowing just 25.5 points per game which is good for 23rd in the NFL.


Meanwhile, Atlanta ranks 29th in the NFL in yards allowed (412/game), just two spots better than the Saints. But what's worse from the Falcons perspective is that all those yards turn into touchdowns as Atlanta has given up 29.5 points per contest this season and neither of their two opponents have scored less than 28 points against them. Those aren't the type of numbers you want to have when you are facing Drew Brees and company on their home turf, meaning the Falcons could be in for a rough one on MNF.


Atlanta does have the added motivation of not wanting to fall 0-2 SU in the division after a Week 1 loss to Tampa, but they only things they really have going for them are the facts that they are 4-1 ATS in their last five MNF appearances, and the underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times these two teams have met.


Other than that things look bleak for Atlanta this week as they are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. A team with a losing record, 1-7 ATS in their last eight division games, and 1-4 ATS after scoring 30+ points. Throw in the scenario of this basically being the 10-year anniversary of the Gleason punt block against them – the NFL Network even put out an hour long feature on that this week – and the Falcons are really up against it here.


Take New Orleans -3 on MNF

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 3
September 26, 2016




Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 2 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs


Straight Up 9-6


Against the Spread 7-8


Wager Home-Away


Straight Up 9-6


Against the Spread 9-6


Wager Totals (O/U)


Over-Under 8-7




The largest underdogs to win straight up


Vikings (+6.5, ML +220) at Panthers, 22-10
Bills (+5.5, ML +200) vs. Cardinals, 33-18
Eagles (+4, ML +170) vs. Steelers, 34-3


The largest favorite to cover


Seahawks (-10.5) vs. 49ers, 37-18
Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Bears, 31-17
Packers (-6.5) vs. Lions, 34-27


Looking California


-- The Los Angeles Rams and Oakland Raiders posted road victories in Week 3. The Rams win might be the most surprising considering they entered the weekend with nine total points in two games, including ZERO touchdowns. RB Todd Gurley II accounted for two rushing scores himself in the Rams' 37-32 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After getting blanked in Week 1, LA is 2-0 SU/ATS over the past two. The Raiders rebounded from a home loss last weekend, improving to 2-0 SU/ATS on the road this season.


Feeling Minnesota


-- The Minnesota Vikings lost superstar RB Adrian Peterson (knee surgery) until at least December, if not longer, to injury last weekend. They lost QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee) in the preseason. Trouble? What trouble? The Vikings used a suffocating defensive effort, sacking Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton eight times while picking him off twice to help the Vikes improve to 3-0 SU/ATS. Minnesota looks to keep it rolling with the New York Giants paying a visit to their new palace in downtown Minneapolis next Monday night.

Total Recall


-- The 'over' nipped the 'under' 8-7 in 15 games heading into Monday night's game featuring the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. In seven games between AFC foes, the 'under' finished 5-2. In five games between two NFC squads, the 'over' finished 5-1. In AFC vs. NFC games, the 'over/under' is 1-1. So far this season the 'over' is 9-7 in each of the first two weeks, and 8-7 in Week 3 heading into Monday.


-- In games with lines of 47 or more points, the 'over' went 3-2 in five Sunday games. The game with the highest line of Week 3, the Monday Night battle of the Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints (53.5), is expected to be a shootout.


-- The five games with the lowest totals on the board saw the 'over' go 4-1, with only the Thursday night game between the Houston Texans-New England Patriots (38.5) going 'under' thanks to Houston's goose egg. The 'under' is 3-0 in three games for the Texans, as they're averaging just 10.7 points per game (PPG) while allowing 17.7 PPG.


-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games in Week 3. Officially, the 'over/under' is 5-4 (55.5%) through 9 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Bears RB Jeremy Langford (ankle) was carted off in the second half of the Sunday night game at Dallas due to an ankle injury and he did not return.


-- Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (knee) tweaked his knee late in the win against the Bears and he is scheduled for an MRI Monday.


-- Dolphins TE Jordan Cameron (concussion) was forced out of Sunday's game against his old team, the Browns, due to a possible concussion.


-- 49ers TE Vance McDonald (hip) did not make it through the full game in Seattle due to a hip injury.


-- Packers TE Jared Cook (foot) was on crutches and wearing a walking boot after the team's victory against the Lions.


-- Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (knee) checked out early in the rout of San Francisco, and there are reports Wilson might be dealing with an MCL injury. He'll be re-evaluated Monday.


-- Steelers WR Eli Rogers (toe) departed early in Sunday's rout at Philadelphia after suffering a toe injury and he was unable to return.


Looking Ahead


-- The Colts and Jaguars will tangle at Wembley Stadium in London at 9:30am ET next Sunday. The two sides split their pair of divisional games last season, with the Jags snapping a six-game losing streak in the series in emphatic fashion Dec. 13, 2015 by a 51-16 score. The Jaguars covered both meetings last season, but they're just 2-5 ATS over the past seven in the series.


-- The Panthers head to Atlanta to battle the Falcons in a key NFC South matchup. Carolina is 5-2 SU in the past seven meetings in this series, and they'e 6-2 ATS in the past eight.


-- The Bears return home to face the Lions in an NFC North matchup. Lately this series has been all Detroit, with the Lions winning six in a row. The Lions are also an impressive 9-3 ATS in the past 12 matchups. Chicago's last win in the series came Dec. 30, 2012 in Detroit, and the last win against the Lions at Soldier Field came Oct. 22, 2012.


-- The Patriots will host the rival Bills in an AFC East tussle in Foxboro, the final game before QB Tom Brady returns from suspension. New England has rolled in this series, winning eight of the past nine meetings, with their only win coming in a meaningless Week 17 game in 2014 when the Patriots rested most of their starters. New England is 5-3-1 ATS over the past nine against Buffalo.


-- The Texans and Titans do battle in another AFC South fight. Lately it has been all Texans, going 4-0 SU in the past four against the Titans, with Houston covering five in a row. The Texans are also 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings in the series while winning seven of the past eight.