Notre Dame at Texas
September 3, 2016
Two of the country’s most storied programs will take center stage Sunday night when Texas plays host to Notre Dame at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Notre Dame installed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers was 59.5 points, while the Longhorns were +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145). For first-half bets, the Fighting Irish were favored by 2.5 points with a total of 30.5.
These schools met in last season’s season opener as well. Brian Kelly’s squad coasted to a 38-3 win as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’ The 41 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48-point total. Notre Dame dominated from start to finish, enjoying a 527-163 advantage in total offense and a 30-8 margin in first downs.
Malik Zaire completed 19-of-22 passes for 313 yards and three TDs without an interception. Josh Adams ran for 49 yards and a pair of scores on just five carries.
Since Charlie Strong took over in 2014, Texas has compiled a 2-3-1 spread record in six games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Notre Dame owns a 5-9 spread record in 14 games as a road favorite on Kelly’s watch.
Strong enters the season on a boiling hot seat. He has an abysmal 11-14 record since arriving in Austin, going 6-7 and 5-7. The Longhorns started 1-4 last season and went into the Red River Rivalry showdown as a 16.5-point underdog to Oklahoma. However, they put together their best performance of the year and captured a 24-17 win over the previously-unbeaten and 10th-ranked Sooners.
Following a 23-9 home win over Kansas State in its next outing, Texas appeared poised to finished strong. But that notion went out the window in Ames, where the Longhorns fell to 3-5 after taking a 24-0 shellacking at Iowa St.
With a 4-6 record, Texas hosted Texas Tech needing a win to remain bowl eligible. It wasn’t to be, though, as Patrick Mahomes led the Red Raiders to a 48-45 win as one-point road underdogs. In the regular-season finale, the Longhorns went to Waco and shocked 12th-ranked Baylor by a 23-17 count as 21.5-point underdogs. We should note that the Bears were playing their fourth-string QB due to injuries.
Strong’s third team brings back seven starters on offense and eight on defense. The main issue during Strong’s tenure has been inadequate play at the QB position. Tyrone Swoopes and Jerrod Heard are still around, but all indications are that true freshman Shane Buechele is going to be the starter. He left high school early in order to participate in spring practice and get comfortable in new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilber’s system. Gilber takes over as OC after guiding Tulsa’s offense last year.
Texas was deplorable on defense last year, especially for a unit being directed by Strong, who was a defensive whiz in various defensive coordinator roles across the SEC for two decades before landing his first head-coaching gig at Louisville. The Longhorns gave up 30.3 points per game last season, but it has seven of its top nine tacklers back.
This unit will be led by sophomore LB Malik Jefferson, who garnered Big Defensive Freshman of the Year honors in ’15. Jefferson recorded 61 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, three passes broken up and six QB hurries.
Notre Dame endured a horrible rash of season-ending injuries to key players last year. Nevertheless, the Irish went into the regular-season finale at Stanford ranked fourth in the nation and clearly in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth. It wasn’t to be, however, as the Cardinal won a 38-36 decision.
Then at the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State beat Notre Dame by a 44-28 count as a 6.5-point favorite. It was a disappointing end to the year but considering the circumstances (injuries), there was no shame whatsoever in a 10-3 SU record and a 8-5 ATS ledger. The Irish return four starters on offense and five on defense.
The QB situation is unsettled, but that’s a good thing in this instance. Zaire went down with a season-ending injury one week after looking so sharp in the easy win over Texas. DeShone Kizer stepped in as a freshman and played well. He completed 211-of-335 passes (63.0%) for 2,884 yards with a 21/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The dual-threat QB also rushed for 520 yards and 10 TDs.
Zaire led the Irish to a 31-28 win over LSU at the Music City Bowl two seasons ago. Then before getting injured at Virginia in Week 2 of last year, he had connected on 26-of-40 throws (65.0%) for 428 yards and four TDs without an interception.
Kelly has yet to announce a starter. Obviously, Kelly is confident in both players and I would expect both to see playing time.
Most of the WR group has departed, including Will Fuller and Chris Brown. Torii Hunter Jr. is the leading returning receiver after catching 28 balls for 363 yards and two TDs. Leading rusher C.J. Prosise is also gone, but Josh Adams is back following a year in which he ran for 835 yards and six TDs while averaging 7.1 YPC.
Notre Dame took a big hit a few weeks ago when senior free safety Max Redfield was dismissed from the program following an arrest on felony charges. Redfield was the team’s leading returning tackler after making 64 stops in ’15. Without him, the Irish only has one of its top eight returning tacklers.
Also, second-string cornerback Devin Butler is out due to a suspension. He had 11 tackles and a pair of passes broken up in ’15. Starting sophomore TE Alize Jones is done for the year due to academic issues. Jones had 13 receptions for 190 yards in ’15.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Toledo QB Logan Woodside sparked his team to an impressive 31-10 win at Arkansas State as a 3.5-point underdog Friday night in Jonesboro. Woodside connected on 23-of-31 passes for 371 yards and three TDs without an interception.
-- Mississippi State has to take Week 1 honors for the most pathetic performance. The Bulldogs lost outright at home to South Alabama, 21-20. A chip-shot field goal attempt with nine seconds left hit the cross bar, allowing the Jaguars to win outright as 28-point underdogs. Money-line backers at 5Dimes.eu cashed a monster 30/1 ticket.
-- Is Houston the hottest program in the country? The Cougars captured a 33-23 win over Oklahoma as 13.5-point underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a beautiful +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450). They are now an instant contender for a berth in the CFP if they can run the table. Tom Herman’s team certainly has a number of tests in an underrated AAC, but it also gets a Nov. 17 home game against a Louisville squad that I expect to be a Top-15 type of team this year. As long as Oklahoma has a 10-win season and Louisville is an 8-or-9-win squad, Houston will be in the CFP if it goes 13-0 and wins the AAC. Trust me.
-- Another nice money-line winner came Friday when Army went to Philadelphia and pulled a 28-13 upset over Temple as a 14.5-point underdog. The Black Knights delivered a +475 payout to their supporters.
September 3, 2016
Two of the country’s most storied programs will take center stage Sunday night when Texas plays host to Notre Dame at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Notre Dame installed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers was 59.5 points, while the Longhorns were +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145). For first-half bets, the Fighting Irish were favored by 2.5 points with a total of 30.5.
These schools met in last season’s season opener as well. Brian Kelly’s squad coasted to a 38-3 win as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’ The 41 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48-point total. Notre Dame dominated from start to finish, enjoying a 527-163 advantage in total offense and a 30-8 margin in first downs.
Malik Zaire completed 19-of-22 passes for 313 yards and three TDs without an interception. Josh Adams ran for 49 yards and a pair of scores on just five carries.
Since Charlie Strong took over in 2014, Texas has compiled a 2-3-1 spread record in six games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Notre Dame owns a 5-9 spread record in 14 games as a road favorite on Kelly’s watch.
Strong enters the season on a boiling hot seat. He has an abysmal 11-14 record since arriving in Austin, going 6-7 and 5-7. The Longhorns started 1-4 last season and went into the Red River Rivalry showdown as a 16.5-point underdog to Oklahoma. However, they put together their best performance of the year and captured a 24-17 win over the previously-unbeaten and 10th-ranked Sooners.
Following a 23-9 home win over Kansas State in its next outing, Texas appeared poised to finished strong. But that notion went out the window in Ames, where the Longhorns fell to 3-5 after taking a 24-0 shellacking at Iowa St.
With a 4-6 record, Texas hosted Texas Tech needing a win to remain bowl eligible. It wasn’t to be, though, as Patrick Mahomes led the Red Raiders to a 48-45 win as one-point road underdogs. In the regular-season finale, the Longhorns went to Waco and shocked 12th-ranked Baylor by a 23-17 count as 21.5-point underdogs. We should note that the Bears were playing their fourth-string QB due to injuries.
Strong’s third team brings back seven starters on offense and eight on defense. The main issue during Strong’s tenure has been inadequate play at the QB position. Tyrone Swoopes and Jerrod Heard are still around, but all indications are that true freshman Shane Buechele is going to be the starter. He left high school early in order to participate in spring practice and get comfortable in new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilber’s system. Gilber takes over as OC after guiding Tulsa’s offense last year.
Texas was deplorable on defense last year, especially for a unit being directed by Strong, who was a defensive whiz in various defensive coordinator roles across the SEC for two decades before landing his first head-coaching gig at Louisville. The Longhorns gave up 30.3 points per game last season, but it has seven of its top nine tacklers back.
This unit will be led by sophomore LB Malik Jefferson, who garnered Big Defensive Freshman of the Year honors in ’15. Jefferson recorded 61 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, three passes broken up and six QB hurries.
Notre Dame endured a horrible rash of season-ending injuries to key players last year. Nevertheless, the Irish went into the regular-season finale at Stanford ranked fourth in the nation and clearly in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth. It wasn’t to be, however, as the Cardinal won a 38-36 decision.
Then at the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State beat Notre Dame by a 44-28 count as a 6.5-point favorite. It was a disappointing end to the year but considering the circumstances (injuries), there was no shame whatsoever in a 10-3 SU record and a 8-5 ATS ledger. The Irish return four starters on offense and five on defense.
The QB situation is unsettled, but that’s a good thing in this instance. Zaire went down with a season-ending injury one week after looking so sharp in the easy win over Texas. DeShone Kizer stepped in as a freshman and played well. He completed 211-of-335 passes (63.0%) for 2,884 yards with a 21/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The dual-threat QB also rushed for 520 yards and 10 TDs.
Zaire led the Irish to a 31-28 win over LSU at the Music City Bowl two seasons ago. Then before getting injured at Virginia in Week 2 of last year, he had connected on 26-of-40 throws (65.0%) for 428 yards and four TDs without an interception.
Kelly has yet to announce a starter. Obviously, Kelly is confident in both players and I would expect both to see playing time.
Most of the WR group has departed, including Will Fuller and Chris Brown. Torii Hunter Jr. is the leading returning receiver after catching 28 balls for 363 yards and two TDs. Leading rusher C.J. Prosise is also gone, but Josh Adams is back following a year in which he ran for 835 yards and six TDs while averaging 7.1 YPC.
Notre Dame took a big hit a few weeks ago when senior free safety Max Redfield was dismissed from the program following an arrest on felony charges. Redfield was the team’s leading returning tackler after making 64 stops in ’15. Without him, the Irish only has one of its top eight returning tacklers.
Also, second-string cornerback Devin Butler is out due to a suspension. He had 11 tackles and a pair of passes broken up in ’15. Starting sophomore TE Alize Jones is done for the year due to academic issues. Jones had 13 receptions for 190 yards in ’15.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Toledo QB Logan Woodside sparked his team to an impressive 31-10 win at Arkansas State as a 3.5-point underdog Friday night in Jonesboro. Woodside connected on 23-of-31 passes for 371 yards and three TDs without an interception.
-- Mississippi State has to take Week 1 honors for the most pathetic performance. The Bulldogs lost outright at home to South Alabama, 21-20. A chip-shot field goal attempt with nine seconds left hit the cross bar, allowing the Jaguars to win outright as 28-point underdogs. Money-line backers at 5Dimes.eu cashed a monster 30/1 ticket.
-- Is Houston the hottest program in the country? The Cougars captured a 33-23 win over Oklahoma as 13.5-point underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a beautiful +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450). They are now an instant contender for a berth in the CFP if they can run the table. Tom Herman’s team certainly has a number of tests in an underrated AAC, but it also gets a Nov. 17 home game against a Louisville squad that I expect to be a Top-15 type of team this year. As long as Oklahoma has a 10-win season and Louisville is an 8-or-9-win squad, Houston will be in the CFP if it goes 13-0 and wins the AAC. Trust me.
-- Another nice money-line winner came Friday when Army went to Philadelphia and pulled a 28-13 upset over Temple as a 14.5-point underdog. The Black Knights delivered a +475 payout to their supporters.
