Cnotes 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

[CNOTES]

ACC Report - Week 1
August 30, 2016




2015 ACC STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Boston College 3-9 0-8 5-6-1 2-10


Clemson 14-1 9-0 8-7 9-6


Duke 8-5 4-4 7-6 6-7


Florida State 10-3 6-2 8-5 5-8


Georgia Tech 3-9 1-7 3-9 6-6


Louisville 8-5 5-3 7-6 6-6-1


Miami (Fla.) 8-5 5-3 7-6 6-7


North Carolina 11-3 8-1 8-6 8-6


North Carolina State 7-6 3-5 6-7 7-6


Pittsburgh 8-5 6-2 6-7 6-6-1


Syracuse 4-8 2-6 8-4 10-2


Virginia 4-8 3-5 8-3-1 6-5-1


Virginia Tech 7-6 4-4 6-7 6-7


Wake Forest 3-9 1-7 6-6 5-6-1


Charlotte at Louisville (Thurs. - ESPN3, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Cardinals enter the season in the Top 25, and they have no plans to fall out by losing their opener to the new kid on the block, Charlotte. Charlotte wrapped up the 2015 season going 0-4-2 ATS in their final six games, and 1-3-1 ATS in their final five road outings. Louisville has covered in 15 of their past 18 games against Conference USA opponents, while covering in eight of their past 11 games in the month of September. The Cardinals are led by QB Lamar Jackson, who has the potential to be one of the best players not only in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but the entire country. The Cards open as a 39 1/2-point favorite. As a favorite of 25 or more points over the past two seasons, Louisville is 3-0 ATS.


Tulane at Wake Forest (Thurs. - ESPN3, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Tulane heads to Winston-Salem as a 17-point underdog for their opener at Wake Forest. The Green Wave have failed to cover in each of their past six against ACC opponents, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five tilts in the month of September. Both teams are 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on Thursday night. Tulane is looking to wash the sour taste out of their mouth following a disappointing 2015. They have a new coach, new quarterback and new attitude, looking to improve on offense after finishing 123rd out of 128 FBS teams. John Wolford is back under center for his third season at the helm of the Deacs' offense, and he should give way to dual-threat option Kendall Hinton on occasion. The Demon Deacons have the pieces in place to have a much more explosive offense.

Georgia Tech vs. Boston College -- from Dublin, Ireland (ESPN2, 7:30 a.m. ET)
The Ramblin' Wreck and Eagles will do battle in Aviva Stadium in Dublin, with Georgia Tech installed as a field goal favorite. Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in their past five neutral-site games, while Boston College is 3-8 ATS in their past 11 neutral-site battles. After all of the travel, and the trends for each of these two sides, the 'under' might be the play. The under went 4-1 in Georgia Tech's past five games last season, while the under is 7-3 in B.C.'s past 10 neutral site games, 34-15-2 in their past 51 conference tilts and 36-16-1 in their past 53 on grass. Boston College's offense was horrific down the stretch last season, and figures to be improved. But seeing is believing.

Georgia vs. North Carolina -- from Atlanta, Ga. (ESPN, 5:30 p.m.)
The Bulldogs and Tar Heels will battle in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta in one of the marquee games of the weekend. This game figures to have a very strong Bulldogs crowd despite being a 'neutral site'. UNC hasn't performed very well over the years in neutral-site games, either, going 0-4 ATS in their past four such games, while turning in a 3-7 ATS mark in their past 10 non-conference tilts and 2-7 ATS record in their past nine games in the month of September. Georgia, on the other hand, is 4-1 ATS in their past five against ACC foes while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 non-conference battles.

Clemson at Auburn (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)
Clemson heads to the Plains for a battle with Auburn in a primetime matchup on Saturday, with all eyes seeing if the ACC can step out of the shadow of the mighty Southeastern Conference, at least for one weekend. The last time these two sides met resulted in a 26-19 Tigers win, also at Auburn, back on Sept. 1, 2012. QB DeShaun Watson and company enter as touchdown favorites, looking to improve upon their 6-1 ATS mark in their past seven games in the month of September. The Tigers are also 6-2 ATS in their past eight non-conference tussles, which is a far cry from Auburn's 1-8 ATS record over their past nine outside of the SEC. Auburn has also failed to cover six straight in September, and they're 1-10 ATS in their past 11 games at Jordan-Hare Stadium.


Mississippi vs. Florida State -- from Orlando, Fla. (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Last, but certainly not least, the retooled Ole Miss Rebels head to Orlando to battle the Florida State Seminoles in the final game of the opening weekend of action. Mississippi is looking to reload after losing WR Laquon Treadwell, OT Laremy Tunsil and DE Robert Nkemdiche, three players who helped Hotty Toddy become a household hashtag on Twitter over the past couple of seasons in Oxford. They still have QB Chad Kelly, an NFL prospect. However, he is behind an inexperienced offensive line facing a Florida State front which is all likely to be playing on Sundays at some point. The quarterback situation in Tallahassee is a lot less experience, as Deondre Francois takes the reins of Jimbo Fisher's offense. To make his transition a lot more comfortable, he has the luxury of handing off to RB Dalvin Cook early and often. The Seminoles might get off to a slow start as their offense takes time to jell, but Cook will be the difference in this one. However, Ole Miss is 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in their past five on a neutral field. That might be why FSU opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite and the line has been bet down to the neighbor of -4 to -4 1/2.


Other Games


William & Mary at North Carolina State (Thurs. - ESPN3, 7:30 p.m.)


Colgate at Syracuse (Fri. - ESPN3, 7:00 p.m.)


Liberty at Virginia Tech (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)


Villanova at Pittsburgh (ESPN3, 1:30 p.m.)


Richmond at Virginia (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)


North Carolina Central at Duke (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)


Florida A&M at Miami-Florida (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 North Best Bets
August 30, 2016




California – UNDER 4 Wins
2015 Record – 7-5


Head man Sonny Dykes finally pushed Cal “over the hump” last season as the Bears went 8-5 (just 4-5 in conference play) and got back to a bowl for the first time since 2011. That was with Jared Goff, the #1 pick in the NFL draft under center. Things will be different this year as Goff moves on and 77% of their offensive yards overall from last year are now gone.


Let’s face it, Cal had a chance to be very good last year with a great QB and very good skill position players but had a number of close wins (margins of 1, 2, 6, & 6 points) so the Bears weren’t that far from being a .500 type team. Now with so much talent & experience moving on (only 9 starters back, least in the Pac 12) we expect a fairly large drop off this season. Texas Tech graduate transfer Davis Webb will most likely get the nod at QB and while he is adequate, he had trouble holding his job with the Red Raiders. He’s not nearly as good as Goff. On the other side of the ball, the defense was poor allowing 33 PPG and 468 YPG in league play. Even more disturbing was the fact they were pushed around at the line of scrimmage allowing 209 YPG rushing.


With very little experience back on that side of the ball (lost over 65% of their total tackles from last year), another poor year defensively is expected. The schedule does them no favors as they play Hawaii (in Australia), San Diego State, and Texas before conference play even begins. We think there is a good chance they lost at SDSU and at home vs Texas and Hawaii is no gimme. We have to lean UNDER for the Cal Bears.


Oregon – OVER 8 Wins
2015 Record – 9-3


The Ducks were “just” 9-3 last year in the regular season and that was with their QB Adams being hurt for about half the season. This is a program that reloads. The last time they won fewer than 9 games was back in 2006. Over the last 7 years the Quacks have an overall record of 98-22! They are 44-5 their last 49 games at Autzen Stadium and the play Stanford & Washington, the other two contenders in the Pac 12 North, at home. They do lose QB Adams (who was hurt half the year anyway) but return their top 4 rushers and 6 of their top 7 pass catchers.


Taking over at QB will most likely be graduate transfer Dakota Prukop who had a very good career at Montana State. In his 2 seasons as a starter at Montana State, Prukop not only passed for over 5,500 yards but also ran for 1,700 yards. He fits OU’s offense very well. Oregon has averaged 40+ points for 6 straight seasons and we don’t see that changing this year. The defense last year was the worst it’s been in a long time but new DC Brady Hoke (former Michigan head coach) will have them improved on that side of the ball.


There is a strong possibility the Ducks could be 6-0 heading into their bye on October 8th. They will definitely be favored in 5 of those games and possibly all 6 with their game at Nebraska being the only possible exception. We don’t see this team finishing below 8 wins so we’ll grab the OVER here.


Oregon State – OVER 3.5 Wins
2015 Record – 2-10

The Beavers won just 2 games last year in Gary Andersen’s first year on the job but we expect a jump up this season. Andersen’s team is much more experienced this year and he and his staff have had a full year to implement his systems on both sides of the ball. We felt he was trying to fit square pegs into round holes last year as he completely changed the Beavers previous offensive system. He had huge problems at QB where he rotated Collins, Mitchell, and McMaryion, none of which were adept at throwing the ball. Because of that the Beavs only averaged 19 PPG which was one of the worst in the nation.


Now with Garretson (former starter at Utah State) at QB, we expect a huge improvement at that position. The defense was terrible and can do nothing but improve this year with almost 70% of their tackles coming back. Andersen is a solid coach. He turned around a very bad Utah State program very quickly and won 10 games & captured the Big 10 North Title in his 2nd year at Wisconsin. This team should be improved and we have them with a projected 4-8 record so a very slight lean to the OVER.


Stanford – OVER 8.5 Wins
2015 Record – 10-2


Last year Stanford won 12 games and their two losses were by a combined 12 points. The Cardinal were easily the best team in the conference as they had the highest point differential in conference play (+149 points) and the highest YPG differential at +70. They did lose QB Hogan who was the 3rd all-time leading passer in school history but to be perfectly honest, RB McCaffrey carried this team last year. He was fantastic with over 2,000 yards rushing and 645 yards receiving. He is back this year and a leading Heisman candidate.


The QB position will be filled by Keller Chryst (nephew of Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst) who was one of the top QB’s in high school a few years ago. His transition will be made much easier with McCaffrey carrying the load. Last year’s defense began the season as a very inexperience unit with just 3 starters back. They allowed 368 yards per game which was the most by a Stanford stop unit since 2009.


This year’s defense will be very good as they have a number of key players returning. This team does play one of the toughest schedules in the nation as they face off against Kansas State & Notre Dame in the non-conference slate. This is one of the better programs in the nation finishing with double digit wins in 5 of the last 6 seasons. We think they get there again this year and we like the OVER.


Washington – UNDER 9 Wins
2015 Record – 6-6


Washington’s win total this year (9) is one of the biggest jumps in college football as last year the oddsmakers set this team at 4 total wins. While the Huskies are definitely one of the favorites in the Pac 12 North, we think this is an over adjustment and we’ll grab the UNDER here. Yes Washington has 15 starters back but let’s not forget they were just 4-5 in the conference last year. They have not won more than 5 conference games in a season since 2001! The last time this team had double digit wins in a season was way back in 2000 and that’s what the oddsmakers are asking of them with this number sitting at 9.


While this is an improving team under a very good head coach (Chris Petersen) they are still quite young with only 4 of the 22 projected starters expected to be seniors. They have 5 Pac 12 road games (just 4 at home) all against teams that went to bowl games last season.


The Huskies do have an extremely easy non-conference slate but even with a sweep there, they would still need to go 7-2 in conference play to hit this over. We don’t think they can pull that off. With the massive change from last year’s total, we think the value is on the UNDER here.


Washington State – OVER 7.5 Wins
2015 Record – 8-4


The Cougars were one of the biggest overachievers last season winning 8 games (regular season) when the oddsmakers had them tabbed for 5 W’s. This year their total has jumped up to 7.5. They are a much more experienced team this year with 14 starters back including the conference’s top passing QB Luke Falk who threw for over 4,500 yards and 38 TD’s.


The big numbers passing should continue this year under head coach Mike Leach as the Cougars also return a solid offensive line and 10 of their top 11 pass catchers from last season. The problem with Leach’s teams has never been the offense. However, his defenses here have been bad. In his 4 years at WSU, the Cougs defenses have allowed 426, 458, 442, and 417 YPG. Last year, believe it or not, was an improvement as they allowed less than 30 PPG for the first time in Leach’s tenure. If they continue with another jump up defensively, this team could actually be very good.


They have two easy wins in the non-conference vs Idaho & Eastern Washington but will have trouble winning at Boise State. If they go 2-1 in the non-conference they need at least 6 wins in Pac 12 play which is what they hit last year (6-3 in league play). With just 4 road games, including 2 of them at Colorado & at Oregon State who combined for 1 conference win last year, WSU should be able to get to 8 wins this year.

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 South Best Bets
August 28, 2016




Arizona – UNDER 6 Wins
2015 Record – 6-6


The Wildcats won six regular season games last year after winning 10 in 2014. We have the Cats finishing at 6-6 again this year, however if we had to lean one way or the other, we’d probably look at the UNDER before the OVER in this one. Zona’s offense was solid last year putting up 464 yards per game in Pac 12 play. However they return just 57% of their total offensive yards and must replace 3 offensive linemen. The defense was atrocious allowing 485 YPG in conference play including 200+ on the ground. They were pushed around up front and we rate their DLine as one of the weaker ones in the Pac 12. We look for them to struggle up front defensively again this season.


Their non-conference slate was extremely weak last year (UTSA, Nevada, and Northern Arizona) and while it’s not overly tough this season, the Cats at least have a potential loss before conference play as they take on BYU in Glendale, AZ this season. They were just 3-6 in conference play last year with 5 of their 6 losses coming by 8 points or more and 4 came in blowout fashion. Zona plays many of the top Pac 12 teams at home (USC, Stanford, & Washington) which are all potential losses. That means they’ll probably have to pick up some solid road wins to get above this number of 6. Slight lean to the UNDER 6 wins here.

Arizona State – OVER 5 Wins
2015 Record – 6-6


The Devils underachieved in 2014 with just 6 wins (projected for 8.5). They finished just 4-5 in conference play but they could have easily had a much better record. They lost by 2 vs Cal, lost in 3OT’s at Oregon and ASU was actually leading or tied in the 4th quarter in 7 of their 9 Pac 12 games. The outgained their opponents in league games last season and their rush defense was tops in the Pac12 (conference games) allowing only 95 YPG. The Devil defensive line will again be very solid and a number of highly rated JUCO’s are expected to step in and play right away.


Offensively, head coach Todd Graham’s teams are always potent. ASU has averaged 32+ points in 6 straight seasons. They must replace QB Bercovici which won’t be easy but their running game (top 2 RB’s return after combining for 1,800 yards last year) will take some pressure off the new signal caller. The Devils should win at least 2 of their 3 non-conference games and they have a solid shot at all 3 as they get Texas Tech (the possible loss) in Tempe. If they win those 3, they only need to go 3-6 in Pac12 play to top this number. Graham is 34-19 in his 4 years at Arizona State and his team might be a bit undervalued this year. Take the OVER 5 wins.


Colorado – OVER 4.5 Wins
2015 Record – 4-9


This number for the Buffs is set exactly the same as last year’s number which we feel is a mistake. Last year’s team came close to topping the 4.5 number (4-9 record) and we think this year’s team will be quite a bit better. They needed only one more win last season to get to 5 and they had their chances with a number of tight losses by margins of 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 points. While this team has won only 3 Pac 12 games the last 4 seasons, we have a strong feeling they could get that many this year alone. They return more starters than any other team in the conference (18), including their QB (Liufau) and an experience offensive line with 77 career starts among their front 5. The defense should be much better with 10 projected starters being experienced, upperclassmen

If they can get a “W” against rival Colorado State to start the season (Buffs won 27-24 last year) they will start the season 2-0 as Idaho State is their 2nd game. They have 5 home games in conference play and just 4 roadies which is an obvious advantage. The schedule is also set up where they play most of the top teams in the Pac 12 on the road and their conference home games vs Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona State, and Utah (should be down this year) are all winnable. UCLA is their only home game in league play that we don’t give them a very good chance of winning. We like the Buffs to get to 5 and maybe 6 wins this year so take the OVER.

USC – UNDER 7.5 Wins
2015 Record – 8-4


This is a tough one for us. USC should be very good offensively if new QB Max Browne can simply be a solid facilitator. They return everyone else on that side of the ball including one of the more experienced offensive lines in the nation. Their defense lost A LOT in the front 7 so they could struggle there but their defensive backfield should be very good. So why do we lean toward the UNDER 7.5 wins here? Their schedule is brutal. We rate it as the 2nd toughest in the entire nation. If you go strictly by opponent win % from last year, the Trojans schedule ranks 5th nationally but we think it’s tougher than that. They play both Alabama & Notre Dame (both top 10 teams) in the non-conference. Their other non-Pac 12 game is Utah State and that could be a dangerous spot with USC coming off Bama and the Aggies having 9 full days to prepare.


Once they hit their conference schedule the Trojans draw the 3 best teams out of the Pac 12 North (Stanford, Oregon, & Washington) and 2 of those are on the road. USC also has only 4 home games in conference play (5 road games). They end their season with consecutive games vs Oregon, at Washington, at UCLA, and vs Notre Dame which is as tough a closing stretch as you’ll see. Last year this team finished 8-5 in the regular season with a ton of talent on the roster AND an experienced QB who was a multiple year starters (Kessler). With this year’s schedule and a question mark at QB, we think they finish at 7-5 this year pushing them slightly under this number.

UCLA – OVER 8.5 Wins
2015 Record – 8-4


The Bruins win total last year was set at 9.5 and they disappointed with “just” an 8-4 regular season record. This year the oddsmakers have dropped their win total by a full game to 8.5 and we think UCLA can get to 9-3 or better this year going OVER this number. The Bruins finished just 5-4 in Pac 12 play and they should be drastically improved in conference this year.


First of all, they were better than their record last year as they were +55 YPG in conference play which was the 2nd best differential in the league behind only Stanford. Their conference slate lays out very well this year as they avoid two of the best teams in the Pac 12, Oregon & Washington. They also play 5 home games in conference play and just 4 road games. If they can get through the non-conference unscathed they will be sitting in prime position for a big year. It won’t be easy as they travel to Texas A&M and BYU. If they can at least split those games and beat UNLV (they will) then 9 wins becomes probable.


The UCLA defense was a disappointment last year allowing 416 YPG in conference games. Injuries were a big problem with the defense last season and a big improvement is expected on that side of the ball with 9 starters back (83% of their tackles from last year returning). Offensively they have possibly the top QB in the conference in Josh Rosen (3,700 yards passing & 23 TD’s). Prior to last season’s 8 wins, UCLA won 9, 10, & 10 games and it looks to us like they’ll get back to similar results this year.


Utah – UNDER 7.5 Wins
2015 Record – 9-3

Last year’s Utah team overachieved with 9 regular season wins as the oddsmakers had their team total set at 7.5. It’s set at the same number again this season and we like the UNDER here. Despite their 10 overall wins (beat BYU in bowl game) this team was over rated in our opinion. The Utes were outgained last year in 8 of their 13 games. They had a huge turnover ratio (+13 on the season) which helped them to double digit wins. They can’t expect that again this year and with their big losses offensively, this team looks like they’ll take a big step back in 2016.


Offensively this team loses their top 2 QB’s, their top 2 RB’s, and their top 3 receivers from last season. Because of that, only 19% of their total yardage from last year returns which ranks them dead last in the country in that category. Defensively they have 7 starters back, however 4 of their top 5 tacklers have moved on so there are some big holes to fill on that side of the ball as well.


They have a non-conference game vs BYU, who will absolutely be out for revenge after blowing a 35-7 lead in last year’s bowl loss to Utah. When the Utes hit conference play they have just 4 home games and 5 on the road. They also draw Washington & Oregon from the Pac 12 North. Last year’s team was not as good as their record made them out to be. This year they finish with 7 wins or fewer.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, September 1

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INDIANA (6 - 7) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (5 - 7) - 9/1/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 1-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 1-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CHARLOTTE (2 - 10) at LOUISVILLE (8 - 5) - 9/1/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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TULANE (3 - 9) at WAKE FOREST (3 - 9) - 9/1/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 87-119 ATS (-43.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
TULANE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.
WAKE FOREST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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RICE (5 - 7) at W KENTUCKY (12 - 2) - 9/1/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
W KENTUCKY is 1-0 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons
W KENTUCKY is 1-0 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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S CAROLINA (3 - 9) at VANDERBILT (4 - 8) - 9/1/2016, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
VANDERBILT is 1-1 against the spread versus S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
S CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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OREGON ST (2 - 10) at MINNESOTA (6 - 7) - 9/1/2016, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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APPALACHIAN ST (11 - 2) at TENNESSEE (9 - 4) - 9/1/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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Thursday, September 1


7:00 PM
TENNESSEE-MARTIN vs. CINCINNATI
Tennessee-Martin is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee-Martin is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games


7:00 PM
TULANE vs. WAKE FOREST
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tulane's last 6 games on the road
Tulane is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Wake Forest's last 18 games at home
Wake Forest is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home


7:00 PM
MAINE vs. CONNECTICUT
Maine is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Maine is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games
Connecticut is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
Connecticut is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games


7:00 PM
PRESBYTERIAN vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Presbyterian is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Presbyterian is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Central Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Central Michigan's last 18 games at home


7:00 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. LOUISVILLE
Charlotte is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville's last 6 games at home
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


7:30 PM
APPALACHIAN STATE vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Appalachian State's last 6 games
Appalachian State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 13 games at home
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


7:30 PM
INDIANA vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games
Indiana is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Florida International is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida International's last 7 games


7:30 PM
WILLIAM & MARY vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
William & Mary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
William & Mary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
North Carolina State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Carolina State's last 8 games at home


8:00 PM
WEBER STATE vs. UTAH STATE
Weber State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Weber State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Utah State's last 11 games
Utah State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games


8:00 PM
S. UTAH vs. UTAH
S. Utah is 2-20 SU in its last 22 games on the road
S. Utah is 2-19 SU in its last 21 games
Utah is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
Utah is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games


8:00 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. VANDERBILT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Carolina's last 7 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt
South Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against South Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vanderbilt's last 7 games at home


8:00 PM
RICE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Rice is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Rice's last 11 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Western Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


9:00 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA vs. NEW MEXICO
South Dakota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
South Dakota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Mexico's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Mexico's last 10 games at home


9:00 PM
MONTANA STATE vs. IDAHO
Montana State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Montana State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Idaho's last 6 games at home
Idaho is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games at home


9:00 PM
OREGON STATE vs. MINNESOTA
Oregon State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oregon State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home


10:00 PM
JACKSON ST vs. UNLV
Jackson St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Jackson St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
UNLV is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
UNLV is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home


----------------------


NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 1


Thursday, September 1


South Carolina @ Vanderbilt


Game 141-142
September 1, 2016 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
South Carolina
83.173
Vanderbilt
89.613
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vanderbilt
by 6 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vanderbilt
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Vanderbilt
(-3); Under


Oregon State @ Minnesota


Game 143-144
September 1, 2016 @ 9:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Oregon State
73.230
Minnesota
92.684
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 19 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 12 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-12 1/2); Under


Appalachian St @ Tennessee


Game 189-190
September 1, 2016 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Appalachian St
82.787
Tennessee
107.662
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 25
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 20
58
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-20); Over


Indiana @ FIU


Game 133-134
September 1, 2016 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
78.416
FIU
75.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 3
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 9 1/2
61
Dunkel Pick:
FIU
(+9 1/2); Over


Charlotte @ Louisville


Game 135-136
September 1, 2016 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
48.831
Louisville
96.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 48
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 39
61
Dunkel Pick:
Louisville
(-39); Under


Tulane @ Wake Forest


Game 137-138
September 1, 2016 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tulane
70.212
Wake Forest
83.245
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wake Forest
by 13
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wake Forest
by 17
43
Dunkel Pick:
Tulane
(+17); Under


Rice @ Western Kentucky


Game 139-140
September 1, 2016 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Rice
77.620
Western Kentucky
90.262
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 12 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 16 1/2
63
Dunkel Pick:
Rice
(+16 1/2); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 1


Top 14 games of the weekend


South Carolina beat Vanderbilt last five years but covered only one of last four; they won 17-13/48-34 in last two visits here. Gamecocks have a new coach and only 9 starters back- they’re 6-9 vs spread on road last three years. Vandy is 2-4 as a home favorite under Mason; they’ve got 15 starters back, have soph QB who started five games LY.


Oregon State was one of youngest teams in country LY but has 13 starters back; Beavers are 2-7 as road underdogs last two years. OSU coach Anderson beat Minnesota 20-7/34-24 while at Wisconsin in 2014-15. Gophers has a new coach and 13 starters back; they’re 10-6 as home favorites last four years. Since 2012, Big 14 teams are 3-7 vs spread when favored over a Pac-12 team.


Colorado/Colorado State split last four meetings (dogs 3-0-1 vs spread); this game is at neutral Denver site. Buffs have 18 starters back and senior QB who has 29 starts- they’re 6-2 as favorites under MacIntyre. State has only 10 starters back; their junior QB has 13 starts. Rams are 6-5 as underdogs last three years.


Missouri has new coach, soph QB, only one starter back on OL after 5-7 year- they were 1-4 vs spread on road LY. Tigers are 12-5 as road dogs since 2011. West Virginia has senior QB with 15 starts but lost 7 starters on defense; WV is 9-15 as home favorite under Holgorsen. Last five years, Big X teams are 4-2 vs spread when favored against an SEC team; they’ve been underdog in 12 of 20 meetings, with two pick ’ems.


Southern Miss’ new OC Dawson was Kentucky’s OC LY, which can’t hurt. USM has senior QB with 30 starts, 3 senior starters on OL, but their head coach bolted for OC job in NFL. Kentucky has SEC opener with Florida next; they’ve got 4 starters back on OL, but soph QB with only 2 starts. Wildcats are 7-3 as home favorites under Stoops, 7-4-1 in last 12 non-SEC games. C-USA are 14-12 as dogs vs SEC squads the last five years.


Clemson beat Auburn 38-24/26-19 in games played in 2011-12; Clemson coach Swinney is an Alabama grad- his team has junior QB with 20 starts, but only 7 starters back on defense- they’re 2-6 as road favorites last two years. Auburn is unsure of its starting QB; they’re 9-6 in last 15 games as a home dog, but 2-8 in last 10 non-SEC games. Last 5 years, ACC teams are 8-6 vs spread when favored over an SEC squad- they were underdog in 31 of 45 meetings (19-26 vs spread, favorites 28-17).


Pac 12-SEC teams don’t meet often; last five years, SEC teams are 6-1 vs Pac-12 squads, 3-0 vs spread if number was single digits. A&M’s new QB is former Sooner Knight (15 starts); Aggies are 6-12 as home favorites last 3 years- they’ve got 13 starters back, only 2 on OL. UCLA lost 7 starters on offense; they’ve got soph QB (13 starts), are 13-11 vs spread under Mora, 5-4 as road dogs- they do have 9 starters back on defense.


Last 5 years, SEC teams are 18-8 SU vs Big 14 teams, 13-8-1 vs spread when favored. Since ’08, LSU is just 15-22 vs spread outside SEC; they’re 9-6-1 as favorite last 2 years. Tigers have 17 starters back but can QB make defenses respect their passing game, opening up ground attack for Fournette? Last 6 years, Badgers are 6-2 as underdogs; last 3 years, they are 10-5 outside Big 14. This game is at Lambeau Field, not in Madison.


Georgia has new coach (why?); they’re 12-9-1 vs spread outside SEC, 18-22 in last 40 games as favorite. Dawgs have 14 starters back, 8 on offense; will new coach play vet (12 starts) QB or frosh Eason? North Carolina has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they’re 4-7 as road dogs under Fedora. UNC QB Trubisky was 40-47/555 LY, impressive, but this is his first college start. SEC teams are 20-11 vs spread when favored vs ACC squads.


Last 3 years, Houston is 8-0-1 vs spread as an underdog; they’re 29-11 SU, beating ACC teams in last 2 bowls. Cougars have senior QB (25 starts) but only 11 starters back from LY (no senior starters on OL). Oklahoma has senior QB (20 starts), 13 starters back; Sooners are 13-7 vs spread outside Big X last 5 years, 17-11 as favorites last 3 years. Oklahoma has frosh, 4 sophs starting on OL; three of them started LY.


USC has 10 starters back on offense, but new starter is QB; since 2012, Trojans are 3-8 vs spread as underdogs. USC lost 6 starters on defense, but does have whole OL back. Alabama lost 11 starters, has new QB; they’re 8-13 vs spread in last 21 non-SEC games. Last 8 years, they’re 20-12 as road favorites. Last 5 years, SEC teams are 6-1 SU vs Pac-12 squads, 3-0 vs spread if number was single digits.


BYU/Arizona both have 15 starters back, both have vet QBs (BYU’s has 19 starts, Arizona’s 25). BYU lost bowl games to Pac-12 squads 2 of last 3 years; they’ve got 15 starters back, are 4-8 vs spread on road last 3 years. (this game is in Cardinals’ dome, not Tucson, but will be ‘zona crowd). Arizona is 5-9 under RichRod in games where spread was less than 6 points; they’re 14-15 as faves under this coach. New coach for BYU; Mendenhall was at BYU for 11 years.


Texas is 11-14 under Strong, 3-7-1 vs spread as dogs; they lost 38-3 (+9) LY in South Bend, outgained 527-163- they moved former QB Heard (10 starts) to WR, haven’t decided between Buechele/Swoopes as their QB. Longhorns have 14 starters back, 3 on OL. Notre Dame is just 5-9 as road favorite under Kelly; they lost 13 starters, have just 27 returning starts on OL, but they do have quality depth at QB.


Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have 16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts.

 

[CNOTES]

College football Week 1 opening line report: It's finally here!


Mississippi has been on the rise the past few years under Hugh Freeze, going 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in a 2015 campaign capped by a 48-20 shellacking of Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl.


It’s finally here. The first full week of the 2016 college football season. Sure, California and Hawaii kicked off the season last week in Australia, but that was a stale appetizer compared with the five-star full-course meal coming up in the next few days.We talk about the opening lines on four key games with John Lester, senior lines manager for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.


No. 3 Oklahoma (-10) vs. No. 13 Houston


This is a huge season opener for both teams, as a loss would immediately have them on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff at the end of the year. It’s technically a neutral-site contest, since it’s not at the Cougars’ TDECU Stadium, but it’s still in Houston at NRG Stadium, home of the NFL’s Texans.


The Sooners are coming off an excellent 11-2 SU season (9-4 ATS) in which they reached the playoffs, losing to Clemson 37-17 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Orange Bowl, which served as one of the semifinals. Oklahoma made it that far on the strength of a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS run to cap the regular season.


Houston was in potential playoff consideration, too, getting out of the gate 10-0 SU before stubbing its toe at Connecticut. Still, the Cougars finished 13-1 SU (9-4 ATS), capped by a 38-24 victory over Florida State as a 7.5-point underdog in the Peach Bowl.


“This is possibly the opening week matchup I’m looking forward to the most,” Lester said of Saturday’s noon Eastern contest. “It’s really a boom-or-bust game for both teams. If Houston can somehow pull off the upset, then the College Football Playoff mid-major talk won’t cease until season’s end.”


Bookmaker opened the Sooners at -10 back in early June and moved to -10.5 earlier this month, but it reverted to 10 on Aug. 19 and has since remained there.


“We haven’t moved off the opener except for a half-point twice in almost three months, so we feel confident this number will attract fairly even action.”

No. 17 Southern California vs. No. 1 Alabama (-10.5)


Two storied programs highlight the first full Saturday of the season, playing on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Top-ranked Alabama is coming off its fourth national title in the last seven years, blasting Michigan State 38-0 laying 10 points in the playoff semifinals, then edging Clemson 45-40 as a 6-point fave in an exhilarating championship game.


That capped a 14-1 SU, 8-7 ATS season in which the Crimson Tide won their last 12 games.


Southern Cal is coming off another bumpy season that included a coaching change from Steve Sarkisian to Clay Helton, as the Trojans went 8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS. But USC is ranked in the top 20 to start the season, so clearly there’s some optimism in Helton’s first full year at the helm.


“This is another matchup that will garner a huge handle at our shop,” Lester said of the 8 p.m. Eastern kickoff. “Sharp bettors haven’t seemed too interested in this one, as the half-point movement is mostly due to square support on the defending champs. My guess is we’ll see this line continue to creep up as we get closer to kickoff.”


No. 9 Notre Dame (-3) at Texas

It’s a Sunday evening showdown of traditional college football powers deep in the heart of Texas, where Notre Dame will look to put behind it the arrests of several players in two separate incidents earlier this month. The Fighting Irish were in the hunt for one of the four playoff spots last year before a 38-36 loss at Stanford catching 4 points in the regular-season finale.


Notre Dame then got blitzed by Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, losing 44-28 as a 4.5-point pup to complete a 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS season.


Meanwhile, Texas hasn’t sniffed national championship contention since losing the title game to Alabama after the 2009 regular season. Last year, the Longhorns went 5-7 SU and ATS, though they capped the season with a 23-17 upset of host Baylor as a 21-point underdog.


“Our business couldn’t ask for a better Week 1 Sunday night matchup, as bankrolls are full and we have two teams with massive followings,” Lester said of the 7:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff. “In the first week of June, we opened this game at Irish -4.5, and early, sharp action came in on Texas. Earlier this month, the line moved as high as -5, but during the past week, more Longhorn money from smart players pushed it down to a field goal.”

No. 12 Mississippi vs. No. 4 Florida State (-4)


A Monday night contest caps the first full week of college football, with an 8 p.m. Eastern kickoff.


Florida State has consistently been in the national championship chase lately, winning it all in the 2013 season and making the first-ever playoff in 2014 – where it lost to Oregon in one semifinal – before dropping off just a bit last year. The Seminoles went 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in 2015, including a 38-24 loss to Houston as a 7.5-point chalk in the Peach Bowl.


Mississippi has been on the rise the past few years under Hugh Freeze, going 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in a 2015 campaign capped by a 48-20 shellacking of Oklahoma State laying 7.5 points in the Sugar Bowl.


“It’s been a roller coaster of line movement for this Monday night matchup,” Lester said. “For the first month and a half, the money was heavy on Florida State, sending the spread to as high as -6.5. Once it hit that peak, we started seeing some sharper money on Ole Miss. The number dropped to -3.5 a couple of weeks ago. We’ve seen both sides of the betting spectrum.”

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Short Sheet


Week 1


I'll add Sat., Sun. and Mon. as soon as they're available.


Thurs - Sept, 1


Indiana at Florida INT, 7:30 ET
Indiana: 45-61 ATS in games played on turf
Florida INT: 1-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63

Charlotte at Louisville, 7:00 ET
Charlotte: 2-6 ATS as an underdog
Louisville: 7-3 ATS in non-conference games


Tulane at Wake Forest, 7:00 ET
Tulane: 4-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45
Wake Forest: 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points

Rice at Western Kentucky, 8:00 ET
Rice: 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 17 points
W Kentucky: 11-14 ATS as a home favorite


South Carolina at Vanderbilt, 8:00 ET
S Carolina: 1-3 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Vanderbilt: 10-6 ATS against conference opponents

Oregon State at Minnesota, 9:00 ET
Oregon St: 3-12 ATS as an underdog
Minnesota: 5-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56


Appalachian State at Tennessee, 7:30 ET
Appalachian St: 1-5 ATS in games played on a grass field
Tennessee: 10-6 ATS as a favorite




Fri - Sept, 2


Ball State at Georgia State, 7:00 ET
Ball St: 15-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Georgia St: 3-8 ATS in dome games


Army at Temple, 7:00 ET
Army: 7-17 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Temple: 4-2 ATS in the first month of the season

Colorado State at Colorado, 8:00 ET
Colorado St: 5-9 ATS against Pac Twelve conference opponents
Colorado: 11-7 ATS as a neutral field favorite

Kansas State at Stanford, 9:00 ET
Kansas St: 1-3 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Stanford: 8-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points


Toledo at Arkansas State, 9:00 ET
Toledo: 4-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Arkansas St: 13-5 ATS as a favorite

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
August 30, 2016




This season’s Thursday opening night card features seven contests including several major conference teams in action in important games.


Here is a look at three of the biggest games that will formally open up the 2016 college football season Thursday night.


Matchup: South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores
Venue: Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 1, 8:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Vanderbilt -3½, Over/Under 43
Last Meeting: 2015, at South Carolina (-1½) 19, Vanderbilt 10


Vanderbilt hasn’t won outright in this series since 2008 and it looks like this will be the first time the Commodores will be a closing line favorite in this series since 1999. Despite losing seven in a row in the series four of those losses came by 10 or fewer points and this year Vanderbilt appears to be in a better position to start the season. After Vanderbilt delivered back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2012 and 2013 James Franklin departed for Penn State.


Stanford assistant Derek Mason took over the program and the first two years have been challenging as the roster turned over dramatically before the 2014 season and it has taken some time for things to fall in place. Despite only going from 3-9 to 4-8 last season, the statistics painted the picture of a dramatically improved team and the Commodores picked up two SEC wins. This will be a key game in the bowl hopes for Vanderbilt with a fairly experienced squad in the third year under Mason.


South Carolina was among the top SEC teams from 2011 to 2013 finishing 11-2 with bowl wins in each of those seasons despite never claiming the division title. The Gamecocks have dipped by four wins in each of the past two seasons hitting rock bottom last season at 3-9 with longtime head coach Steve Spurrier resigning midseason.


Former Florida head coach Will Muschamp is taking over after spending last season as the defensive coordinator at Auburn. This year’s team is short on experience and a quarterback battle has taken place all summer between freshman Brandon McIlwain and senior Perry Orth with still no announcement early this week. The offense could be extremely young this season but the defense does have a few veteran playmakers returning and Muschamp’s influence on that side of the ball should point to modest improvement.


Last season these teams met mid-season with both squads sitting with just two wins. South Carolina wound up with a 19-10 win boosted by turnovers and a slight production edge in Columbia. For two teams that look poised to face an uphill battle to deliver SEC wins with making a bowl game perhaps a long shot, this looks like a critical game. For Vanderbilt this is the type of win the team needs to cement the positive trajectory in Mason’s third season while for South Carolina Muschamp can take a big step towards reestablishing himself as coach to contend with after his failed stop in Florida and marginal results last season at Auburn. Both teams also face formidable games ahead to close out September and getting in the win column early could make a big difference in what direction the season heads towards.

Historical Trends: While Vanderbilt is on 4-21 and 0-7 S/U runs in this series the Commodores are on an 8-5-1 ATS run vs. South Carolina since 2002. Vanderbilt has lost outright in five of the last six home openers though they have been dogged in four of those games. Since 2011 Vanderbilt is 17-1 S/U and 11-7 ATS as a home favorite including going 4-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 or fewer points. South Carolina went 0-7 S/U and 3-4 ATS as an underdog last season. Going back to 2005 South Carolina is 19-12-1 ATS as a road underdog. South Carolina has often been in the spotlight in the opening week and the Gamecocks are 15-1 S/U but just 8-8 in the season opener since 2000.


Matchup: Oregon State Beavers at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Venue: TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 1, 9:00 PM ET – BTN
Line: Minnesota -13, Over/Under 54½
Last Meeting: 1981, at Minnesota (-10½) 42, Oregon State 12


Minnesota made Tracy Claeys the full-time head coach late last season and after getting an unexpected bowl bid the Gophers made the most of it with the first bowl win for the program in over a decade. With the changes in the schedule alone the Gophers can expect to have an improved record in 2016 as they faced TCU, Michigan, and Ohio State last season with those squads absent from the schedule this season. This will be an important opening game for Minnesota taking on a Pac-12 team in a game the team should be expected to win.


Senior quarterback Mitch Leidner isn’t a great downfield threat and the Gophers lost last season’s top receiver but the running game should remain a strong point for the offense. The defense had several talented players from last season depart and while the depth may not be as strong this season the numbers may improve. It won’t be a surprise if Minnesota matches last season’s win count by the end of October and emerges as a Big Ten West contender before heading into a trio of big games in November but this is the type of dangerous game that has tripped up the program in the past.


Gary Andersen was the head coach at Wisconsin for two seasons and he beat Minnesota twice in that run. After a 10-3 season but a disastrous 2014 Big Ten championship game Andersen surprised most by leaving the Badgers to take over at Oregon State. He inherited a challenging situation in Corvallis with very few returning players particularly on defense where his area of expertise sides. Oregon State started 2-1 last season before going 0-9 in Pac-12 play and few of those games were competitive, outscored by an average of 24 points per game in conference play. This year’s team has more experience and depth and in a second season under Andersen improvement is possible but the Beavers are unanimously expected to remain at the bottom of the Pac-12.


Last season both teams faced Michigan in losing efforts but the results were contrasting as Oregon State was out-gained by almost 300 yards in a 35-7 loss with the Beavers netting just 138 yards on offense. The Gophers meanwhile appeared to have a ranked Michigan team beat before a touchdown was overturned on replay and Minnesota botched its final opportunity in a game where Minnesota had a 461-296 yardage edge in the 3-point loss for one of the best performances any team had against a very good Wolverines defense. With a favorable schedule Minnesota may not need this game for a bowl bid but it is certainly an important tone-setting game for a program that has been caught in mediocrity for some time. For Oregon State this would be a great opening win that could give the team confidence to compete much better in the grueling Pac-12 campaign ahead.


Historical Trends: While often playing lighter competition Minnesota is on a 16-5 S/U and a 12-6 ATS run in the season opener while going 9-4 ATS in home openers since 2003 with four consecutive covers in the first TCF Bank Stadium game. Minnesota is just 3-8 ATS since 2007 as a double-digit home favorite however as this squad has often played to the level of competition in recent years with some narrow escapes in several non-conference games including going 0-3 ATS in narrow wins over Colorado State, Kent State, and Ohio early last season. Oregon State is 6-18 ATS overall the past two seasons as one of the worst teams in back in the nation as few recent trends are positive. Going back to 1998 Oregon State is 20-19-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog and the Beavers are 23-16 ATS as a road underdog since 2006.


Matchup: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Tennessee Volunteers
Venue: Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 1, 7:30 PM ET - SEC
Line: Tennessee -20, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: None

The expectations are justifiably sky high for Tennessee this season with Butch Jones improving the team’s record in each of the last two seasons. Last season’s 9-4 squad had a strong resume with the losses coming in tight games against great competition, losing by seven in double-overtime to Oklahoma, by one against Florida, by four against Arkansas, and by five against Alabama. In three seasons at Tennessee, Jones is only 10-14 SU in SEC play but most are expecting the Volunteers to be the top team in the SEC East this season.


The offense and defense will both return the majority of the starters from last season’s team led by quarterback Joshua Dobbs who was very efficient but not prolific last season as Tennessee led with its rushing attack. Statistically last season’s defense wasn’t that much better than the 2014 outfit but there were several dominant performances down the stretch with Tennessee allowing just 42 points in the final four games combined.


Appalachian State has two very difficult non-conference games in September with this game and a home date with Miami in two weeks otherwise the Mountaineers would be considered a serious candidate for the Group of 5 major bowl bid. After opening the 2014 season 1-5 in the move to FBS play, Appalachian State is 17-2 S/U since and this team should be hungry in 2016 after narrowly missing out on the Sun Belt title last season. The ground attack leads the way for the Mountaineers averaging 271 yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry last season and all the top rushers from last season have returned for this season. Appalachian State only allowed 19.1 points per game last season and with nine starters back the defense should be formidable though this is a significant jump in class.


By mid-October Tennessee will know if it is a SEC and national contender or just headed for another good season as the Volunteers have most of the big games in the first half of the season including a brutal run facing Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama in consecutive weeks. While overlooking this opener is unlikely Tennessee also has a unique showcase game next week vs. Virginia Tech with the game to be played on the Bristol Motor Speedway. While the Mountaineers lost 41-10 vs. Clemson in a similar test last season they were out-gained by just 95 yards in that game for a competitive showing with turnovers helping the Tigers to pull away. For Appalachian State players in the region that were overlooked by SEC schools this should be a huge opportunity but Tennessee scored 45 or more points five times last season and in a similar opening test last season Tennessee was caught in a shootout with Bowling Green but still managed to win by 29.

Historical Trends: Appalachian State has a short history at the FBS level but the Mountaineers have covered in seven of the last nine road games. The Mountaineers have wound up with a slight losing ATS record in each of its two FBS seasons though they were an underdog just once all last season, +19 at Clemson. Tennessee is just 11-17 ATS at home since 2012 and in three seasons under Jones Tennessee is 6-9 ATS as a home favorite. The Volunteers are 8-4 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more since 2010 and Tennessee had won 20 consecutive home openers S/U before losing in double-overtime vs. Oklahoma last season.

 

[bigwang]

Thanks for all of the info! Hope you cash a fortune this season.

 

[indiana]

C/note...........BOL with all your action this week.............enjoy and have profitable season.............indy

 

[CNOTES]

Thanks Indy and wang.....Back at ya....good luck !!.................Thankyou)(&

 

[CNOTES]

Big 12 no longer considering East Carolina, UNLV, New Mexico
September 1, 2016


East Carolina, UNLV and New Mexico are out of the Big 12's expansion derby.


Officials at each school said Wednesday that they were notified by the Big 12 that they are no longer being considered for membership.


East Carolina spokesman Tom McClellan says Commissioner Bob Bowlsby notified Chancellor Cecil Staton of the decision Tuesday by phone.


Athletic director Jeff Compher says it's ''obviously not the decision we were hoping for,'' but expressed satisfaction that ''we were able to tell our story to not only the Big 12, but the entire nation.''


East Carolina is beginning its third season in the American Athletic Conference after winning two Conference USA championships in football in the 2000s.


UNLV President Len Jessup and athletic director Tina Kunzer-Murphy issued a statement later in the day to acknowledge the Rebels were no longer being considered. UNLV has been a member of the Mountain West since 1990.


''As the landscape of intercollegiate athletics continues to change, ensuring UNLV is properly positioned and is a member of a conference that is the best fit for our university and community remains part of our long-term vision,'' the statement said. ''We remain committed to fulfilling our responsibility to be a strong and successful member of the Mountain West.''


New Mexico President Robert told the Albuquerque Journal that the school ''received very positive feedback from the Big 12,'' but was informed it would no longer be part the conference's expansion search. The Lobos are also a member of the Mountain West


It's not yet clear if any other schools have received similar notification from the league, which announced July 19 that its presidents had authorized Bowlsby to begin evaluating schools for possible expansion of the 10-team conference by two or four members.


The conference has not commented publicly on its plans nor has it committed to adding any schools.


Bowlsby has put no timetable on the Big 12's decision, though he has said the conference would like to move quickly and not interfere with the football season. The presidents meet again in mid-October.

 

[CNOTES]

Richt's hiring netted Miami some new fans - from Georgia
September 1, 2016


CORAL GABLES, Fla. (AP) Cindy Duke's father went to Georgia. She has a daughter currently at Georgia. She's been a Georgia football fan for her entire life.


But when Georgia opens its season in Atlanta - where she lives - on Saturday, Duke won't be there.


She'll be at her first Miami game instead.


Mark Richt's hiring at Miami, after his successful 15-year run at Georgia came to an end last fall, has already brought something that the Hurricanes weren't necessarily expecting. There's a slew of new Hurricane season-ticket-holders from the Peach State now, people who apparently decided that they can simultaneously be Richt fans and Bulldog fans.


''Since Mark Richt came to Georgia, I've been a fan of his,'' Duke said. ''We saw so many changes in the way the program was handled and just were really impressed with the way he straightened it out. Making things more about the players and the students as a whole person, not just football players. To watch him handle things the way he has, it's been very impressive.''


For his part, Richt seemed flattered to hear that plenty of people from Georgia bought Miami tickets in the weeks and months after his hiring. His debut as the coach of his alma mater - Richt graduated in 1982 - is Saturday night, when the Hurricanes play host to Florida A&M.


He got plenty of calls and letters from Georgia fans wishing him well after his move back to Coral Gables, and was warmly received when he appeared at a team end-of-season event after his departure from Athens and subsequent hiring by the Hurricanes.


''It's not impossible to be a Georgia Bulldog fan and a Hurricane fan,'' Richt said. ''It's two different leagues. How many times has Miami played Georgia in the last 25 years?''


That would be none - and none for the 25 years before that, either. The last Miami-Georgia game was in 1966.


''There may come a day when we play each other and hopefully it'll be a significant moment,'' Richt said. ''I think a lot of people appreciate how I went about my business at Georgia. You have a fan base, alumni, you get attached to your team, to your people. You take a personal interest in them.''


Duke said she chatted with Richt from time to time, and that they would sometimes attend the same church in Athens, Georgia.


''He's the real deal,'' Duke said. ''It's about more to us than just Georgia football. I wasn't real happy about the way things ended at Georgia, but I'm happy for him ... to be able to go back to his alma mater. So we just want to keep following him and be supportive of him.''


Richt isn't just bringing in new fans. He's bringing some old ones back as well.


Chris Novack held the school record in the 5,000-meter run for 27 years, from 1986 through 2013. He was a scholarship runner at Miami, graduating in 1988. He spent most of his life living in South Florida, though he now calls Savannah, Georgia home.


On Saturday, for the first time in years, he's going to a Hurricanes game. He had season tickets when Miami played home games at the Orange Bowl and now has them again.


''I can't underestimate how the loss of the Orange Bowl hurt so many people,'' Novack said. ''Mark coming in, and the new stadium, I think it's rejuvenated the program. I can tell you there's people in Georgia, my co-workers, who are now Miami fans because of Mark Richt.''

 

[CNOTES]

UNC-Georgia, FSU-Ole Miss headline Week 1 in ACC
September 1, 2016


GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 22 North Carolina vs. No. 18 Georgia, in Atlanta. Three SEC-ACC matchups headline opening weekend, but the Tar Heels' trip to Atlanta stands out because it's the only one of them in which the ACC team is lower-ranked. North Carolina had a breakout 2015 season, reaching its first ACC championship game after winning the Coastal Division, and the best way for the Tar Heels to prove their staying power is by knocking off the Bulldogs in a de facto road game and in Kirby Smart's debut as Georgia coach. ''We understand the importance of it,'' UNC fifth-year coach Larry Fedora said.


BEST MATCHUP: Clemson offense vs. Auburn defense. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson looks to give his Heisman Trophy candidacy a jump start when he faces an Auburn defense that offensive-minded coach Gus Malzahn has said could be the best of his four-year tenure at the school. That will be put to the test by Watson, the first player in FBS history with 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in one season. Auburn will rely on linemen Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams to contain Watson. ''This group has a chance to be as good as we ever had on paper,'' Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Eight current ACC players have rushed for 1,000 or more yards in a season. That's by far the most in the league at one time. The previous high of five was set in 2009 and matched five years later. Seven of them did it last year, led by Florida State's Dalvin Cook (1,691), while Pittsburgh's James Conner did it in 2014.


LONG SHOT: Wake Forest is a 17-point favorite against Tulane in a matchup of teams coming off consecutive 3-9 seasons. The Green Wave figure to debut a run-heavy system that new coach Willie Fritz's Georgia Southern teams used to lead the Bowl Subdivision in rushing in each of the past two years. If Tulane can control the ball and the clock, it will give itself a chance to win.


IMPACT PLAYER: It's guaranteed to be emotional Saturday when Pittsburgh plays host to Villanova and Conner makes his return. The 2014 ACC player of the year suffered a season-ending knee injury in the 2015 opener and then was diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in November. Working out through chemotherapy, and taking part in spring practice while wearing a surgical mask, Conner was declared cancer-free in May. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada, formerly at North Carolina State, has been tinkering with playing multiple running backs in an effort to get Conner on the field.

 

[CNOTES]

No. 25 Florida expects Pineiro to improve kicking fortunes
September 1, 2016


GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) Florida's kicking situation was the worst in the Southeastern Conference last season and among the least productive in the country.


It was so inadequate that coach Jim McElwain held open tryouts - in the middle of the season.


After two more failed field goal attempts in the regular-season finale against rival Florida State, McElwain declared ''we'll get a kicker. And we'll get a good one.''


The 25th-ranked Gators may have gotten the best one available.


Eddy Pineiro, a sophomore who attended ASA Community College in Miami last season but didn't play football, is expected to dramatically improve Florida's field-goal fortunes this fall. His first opportunity to kick in front of 90,000 will happen Saturday against UMass.


''I'm excited,'' said Pineiro, who has made a number of 70-yard-plus kicks and put them on YouTube. ''I think people exaggerate (the pressure). But if you work on the same thing every single day, why can't you do it in a game? ... You should be able to put a blindfold on and kick it because it's the same kick every single time. It's muscle memory.''


Pineiro makes it sound easy: see ball, kick ball.


But Florida learned last season just how difficult a task kicking can be.


The Gators missed five extra points and 10 field goals in 2015. They made just 7 of 17 field goals, a 41.2 percent success rate that ranked 127th out of 128 teams in the nation. McElwain used three different kickers, including a dental student added to the roster late in the year, but nothing fixed the problem.


''Seeing them go through those kicking struggles last year was pretty depressing,'' Pineiro said.


McElwain tried just about everything while experienced junior Austin Hardin, who ended up making 5 of 14 attempts, kept struggling. He turned to Jorge Powell, but the walk-on injured a knee trying to make a tackle against LSU and missed the final seven games. That prompted McElwain to open things up to Florida's student body.


More than 200 students responded to the open call, and dental student Neil MacInnes won the multistage kicking competition. Still, McElwain stuck with Hardin - the Gators ended up going for it on fourth down 27 times - while putting the full recruiting press on Pineiro.


Pineiro eventually de-committed from Alabama and enrolled at Florida in January.


He's essentially been Florida's kicker since, even though he's never kicked in a game. Pineiro was a standout soccer player at Miami Sunset High School, so his first real action came in Florida's spring game, where he made all five extra points and three lengthy field goals.


''I didn't think people were going to scream out my name after an extra point, so that was pretty interesting,'' said Pineiro, who will wear No. 15, made famous in Gainesville by Tim Tebow.


Pineiro wasn't perfect: He hit from 52, 46 and 56 yards, and missed from 53 and 52. He also had nine touchbacks on 10 kickoffs, so McElwain was clearly testing him.


The coach hasn't stopped, either.


McElwain challenges Pineiro at nearly every practice.


''Lately he's been putting the whole team around me while I'm kicking my field goal, just screaming in my ear, throwing water in my face, trying to get me off-balance and stuff,'' Pineiro said. ''So far, I'm like 4-for-4 on those, whatever you want to call them, pressure kicks. So he's happy about that.''


McElwain will be even happier if Pineiro makes them in games, something the Gators rarely did last season.


''I don't want to sit here and put all these high expectations on him,'' McElwain said. ''I mean, the guy hasn't kicked in a game yet, right? And yet all of a sudden, we're ready to say this guy is the Golden Toe Award or whatever.


''At the same time, I do know this: He has the talent to do it, and I love the way he goes about his work.''

 

[CNOTES]

Missouri QB Drew Lock eager to show he has improved
September 1, 2016


COLUMBIA, Mo. (AP) Missouri quarterback Drew Lock is a different player than he was a year ago, and he's eager for the opportunity to prove it.


The season opener at West Virginia on Saturday will be his first chance to show his improvement.


Following Maty Mauk's indefinite suspension in 2015, Lock became the first freshman quarterback to start for Missouri in two decades. He was 2-6 in eight starts, completing 49 percent of his passes while amassing 1,332 yards, four touchdowns and eight interceptions. In a year marked by turmoil, including the threat of player boycotts and coach Gary Pinkel's retirement, Missouri finished a dismal 127th out of 128 FBS teams in scoring at 13.6 points per game, the worst in school history.


Lock said the Tiger's 28-3 loss at Arkansas-Pinkel's last game-was the low point of his season.


''I guess that made me a better, tougher person mentally,'' Lock said. ''I'm thankful for that now and I'm through it and it's behind me.''


Though it may not have been an enjoyable experience, Lock said the experience did help acclimate him to the level of competition.


''You hear that practice makes perfect all the time, and I truly believe that I can look back at last year, I can think of it as just a huge practice year, in the sense of getting reps, seeing what the league is like, seeing what Division-I college football is like,'' he said.


Lock knows he has to improve his numbers from a year ago, and gave specific reasons why he feels confident heading into his sophomore campaign.


''I think we're just more sound as an offense as far as what our jobs are and what the little things are we have to do to make our jobs easy,'' Lock said. ''Really, just pitching and catching the ball. Just being in the right place at the right time when you're supposed to be.''


In addition to improving mechanics or stats, Lock is also focused on honing his leadership role.


''I feel like last year, I didn't communicate very much,'' Lock said. ''I was kind of a guy that kind of stayed to myself. Ran the play, watched it after practice and kind of talked about it with coach. But instead, I'm actually going out there, I know what I'm doing, I know what they're supposed to be doing, and I'm correcting it on the field with them.''


Though only a sophomore, Lock has more experience than the majority of the quarterbacks in the Southeastern Conference. Only four quarterbacks in the conference have made more starts than Lock, all of whom are older.


''You have to have experience to become a leader,'' Lock said. ''I feel like I had a pretty rough experience last year to where people know that I've been through it.''


Offensive coordinator Josh Heupel has seen improvement in Lock since arriving during spring camp.


''I think he's got a much better understanding of defense,'' said Heupel, who coached current NFL quarterbacks Landry Jones and Sam Bradford at Oklahoma. ''I think he's got a much better understanding of fundamentals and things that he needs to do to be successful on a consistent basis.''


Lock said the offense has several goals this season, but is focused primarily on making smart plays.


''Making the right plays when we need to,'' he said. ''Just not playing scared. Just attacking the defense. Instead of more so being on our toes reacting off them, we're going to hopefully come out and play super hard and make defenses react to us.''

 

[CNOTES]

No. 3 Oklahoma's challenge among 3 Big 12 openers vs. Top 15
September 1, 2016


Things to watch in the Big 12 Conference during the opening week of the season, when the league has three games against top-15 opponents.

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Houston, in the Texas Kickoff Classic at NRG Stadium, home of the NFL's Texans. Oklahoma went to the College Football Playoff last season and is the overwhelming preseason favorite to win its 10th Big 12 title. The Sooners face a tough opening nonconference challenge in a game featuring top quarterbacks. The Cougars went 13-1 last season in the debut of head coach Tom Herman, who was coming off a national championship as Ohio State's offensive coordinator when he got to Houston. Baker Mayfield threw for 3,700 yards and 36 touchdowns for the Sooners last season, while Houston's Greg Ward Jr. was 13-0 as a starter and accounted for 38 touchdowns. Ward was one of only two FBS quarterbacks with 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing.

BEST MATCHUP: No. 10 Notre Dame at Texas, the same matchup that was a 38-3 wipeout for Notre Dame over the Longhorns in South Bend in last year's opener. Despite that lopsided score and Texas coach Charlie Strong coming off consecutive losing seasons to start his tenure with the Longhorns, there's hope for Texas because this opener is in Austin. These are two teams needing a positive start - the Irish are expected to contend for a playoff spot - and both have quarterback options. The Longhorns did beat Oklahoma and Baylor away from home last season, and three of their losses were by a field goal or less.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Kansas takes a 15-game losing streak into its opener against Rhode Island, an FCS team that went 1-10 last season. ... The Big 12 returns four 1,000-yard rushers from last season - Oklahoma junior Samaje Perine (1,349 yards), Iowa State sophomore Mike Warren (1,339), Baylor senior Shock Linwood (1,329) and Bears junior Johnny Jefferson (1,000). ... The only three active FBS coaches with 143 wins or more at their current schools are all in the Big 12, Kansas State's Bill Snyder (193), Oklahoma's Bob Stoops (179) and TCU's Gary Patterson (143). ... Oklahoma State has 18 starters back, including an offensive line with a combined 101 career starts.

LONG SHOT: Kansas State at No. 8 Stanford. K-State is a two-touchdown underdog Friday night when the Wildcats play the highest-ranked nonconference opponent they have ever faced in a season-opening road game. It is only the seventh time they have a true road nonconference game against a Power Five school since 1989, coach Bill Snyder's first season.


IMPACT PERFORMER: Defensive end Noble Nwachukwu has started 26 of his 35 games at West Virginia. He had 8 1/2 sacks and 13 tackles for loss last season for a Mountaineers defense that will open the season at home against SEC team Missouri, which was in the Big 12 before WVU joined the league.

 

[CNOTES]

Like his NFL teams, Smith's Illini count on defense to win
September 1, 2016


CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) During tackle Rob Bain's first two seasons at Illinois, the defense he was part of lacked an identity.


Statistically, it was the Big Ten's worst in a number of categories, and a key reason the Illini won 10 games combined in 2013 and '14.


Lovie Smith's best Chicago defenses were creators of chaos - picking off passes, forcing fumbles and scoring points. Smith hopes some of that brand of NFL defense pays off at Illinois, where he will coach his first game Saturday against Murray State.


That philosophy is distilled in one symbol hanging on the team's meeting room wall. It's a football on a spring, mounted on plaque that bears the words STRIP, PUNCH, YANK and, above them all, TAKEAWAYS.


''We talk a lot about takeaways,'' Smith said. ''Defensive players don't come through the doors unless they hit (the ball).''


For Bain, defensive identity starts with Smith's Tampa 2, essentially the same base defense the Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran when he was in charge of those teams and played by defensive legends like Warren Sapp, Simeon Rice and John Lynch - players the Illini say they now regularly watch clips of. Bain says linemen will need to be ''disruptors,'' creating opportunities for the players behind them.


''When you have a defensive line, just a defense designed to constantly get pressure on the quarterback and put the offense in hectic situations, I think that it's definitely a big advantage and benefit to the secondary, where they can kind of just sit back, see what's going on,'' he said. ''And there's more opportunities for them to make plays.''


Illinois' defense has frequently been a liability the past few seasons.


In 2013 and 2014 it was at or near the back of the conference in points given up, often leaving the Illini offense to try to outgun high-scoring opponents.


Similarly, the Illini didn't create many turnovers those years, finishing with a minus-10 turnover ratio in 2013 and minus-3 in 2014.


Last season was better, with 21 total turnovers, four more than the offense gave up.


But at their best, Smith's Bears were turnover machines. The 2004 and 2005 teams both allowed fewer than 20 points a game. Between them those teams forced 63 turnovers and scored nine touchdowns over 32 regular season games.


Through training camp, a lot of the talk among Illini players focused on Bain and the rest of the line: fellow tackle Chunky Clements and defensive ends Carroll Phillips and Dawuane Smoot. Between them they had 36.5 tackles for losses and 12.5 sacks, with eight of those sacks Smoot's.


They say they believe they can be one of the best lines in the country.


After facing them in practice, Illinois quarterback Wes Lunt thinks they're ready to create the kind of disruption Bain talked about.


''We're going against a great defensive line every day. When they're in your face and it's more game-like, you've got to react to it and get the ball out of your hands,'' he said.


Late in one of the last days of preseason camp, a ball thrown to a cross-field receiver popped high in the air. A defender somewhere along the way got a touch with a hand or an arm or a helmet. From behind the end zone it wasn't clear what body part or even which defender was responsible in the mass of bodies swarming the ball.


The ball came down and a defender pulled it in. It was one of those hectic moments Bain mentioned and the defense has the ball.


''More or less all defensive philosophies are the same - everyone's got to be accountable for their gaps,'' Bain explained. ''But I think this defense hones in especially on everyone running to the ball, the effort, the attitude, and everyone being playmakers.''

 

[CNOTES]

SEC loads up on big games in opening weekend
September 1, 2016


Here are a few things to watch in the Southeastern Conference during college football's opening weekend.


GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 11 Mississippi vs. No. 4 Florida State in Orlando, Florida. The Rebels are involved in one of the nation's premier games this week, facing the Seminoles on Monday night at the Citrus Bowl. Ole Miss returns QB Chad Kelly, who threw for more than 4,000 yards last season. Florida State will counter with redshirt freshman Deondre Francois, who will be making his first career start under center. Francois will have help on offense: RB Dalvin Cook returns after running for 1,691 yards last season.


MATCHUP OF THE WEEK: UCLA offensive tackle Conor McDermott vs. Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett: McDermott, a fifth-year senior, earned second-team all-Pac-12 honors last season as part of an offensive line that yielded only 14 sacks. McDermott will have his hands full Saturday lining up against Garrett, arguably the nation's premier pass rusher. Garrett recorded 11 + sacks as a freshman in 2014 and followed that up by delivering 12 + sacks and 19 + tackles for loss last season.

NUMBERS GAME: The SEC owns a 496-110 record and an .818 winning percentage since 2006. That's the highest nonconference winning percentage of any league during that stretch. ... No. 5 LSU owns an FBS record 52 consecutive regular-season nonconference victories heading into Saturday's game with Wisconsin. LSU hasn't lost a regular-season nonconference game since falling 26-8 to Virginia Tech in its 2002 opener. ... No. 9 Tennessee is in the top 10 for the first time since it was ranked eighth on Oct. 29, 2006. ... Missouri's visit to West Virginia marks the first time the Tigers have opened the season with a true road game since a 40-10 loss at Texas in 1996. .... No. 25 Florida has the lowest preseason ranking ever of a defending SEC East champion. Missouri was ranked 24th to start each of the last two seasons as a defending East Division champion.


LONG SHOT: Wisconsin vs. No. 5 LSU: LSU should be really good this season, but it's still surprising to see Wisconsin as a 10-point underdog, especially when it's essentially a home game for the Badgers at Lambeau Field. LSU has one of the nation's best running backs in Leonard Fournette, but needs improvement from junior quarterback Brandon Harris, who threw for 2,165 yards and 13 touchdowns last season.


IMPACT PERFORMER: Georgia quarterback Jacob Eason: This true freshman from Lake Stevens, Washington, is competing with graduate student Greyson Lambert for the right to start No. 18 Georgia's season opener Saturday against No. 22 North Carolina in Atlanta. Eason, who enrolled at Georgia in time to participate in spring practice, went 19 of 29 for 244 yards and a touchdown in the Bulldogs' spring game.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 1 Line Moves
August 30, 2016


It’s being called the best-ever opening weekend of college football, and it’s a fantastic way to welcome gamblers back to the game we love most. Thank you, college football schedule makers.


While there is a healthy 16-game slate on Thursday’s betting board and 11 more on Friday, the meat of the Week 1 college football schedule is served up Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Those three days feature four games matching up ranked opponents, as well as three others we’ll characterize as elite.


Two prominent Las Vegas bookmakers, The Wynn’s John Avello and the South Point’s Chris Andrews, offered their thoughts on these seven marquee matchups.


In May, Andrews’ book posted the season’s first college football lines in Vegas.


Avello is traditionally the first oddsmaker in town to open college football betting each week during the season.

Oklahoma (-11.5, 68) vs. Houston (at NRG Field in Houston), 12:00 p.m. ET, Saturday


Andrews opened the Sooners -9.5 in May, and they were as low as -8.5 at other shops, but the line has risen steadily since. And it’s not just public money that’s backing Oklahoma.


"I’ve had sharp money show up for Oklahoma, which kind of surprised me," Andrews said.


Avello likes Oklahoma’s quality on both sides of the ball and sees Bob Stoops’ squad contending for the national championship. Houston, though, presents a tough early test.


"This will tell us a lot about their season," Avello said of the Sooners.


The game is in Houston, but be careful how much you factor that into your handicapping. It’s being played at the Texans’ home field, not the Cougars’.


Avello said he didn’t give much home-field edge to Houston when setting his number.


"That’s kind of Oklahoma’s territory also," he said. "They may have as many fans there as (Houston does)."

LSU (-10, 44.5) vs. Wisconsin (at Lambeau Field), 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday


Count Avello among the large group of college football observers who are down on Wisconsin ahead of the season.


"Wisconsin doesn’t look good at all on paper to start of the year," he said.


That makes the Badgers’ first opponent look awfully daunting. This is the third year in a row Wiscy opens against an SEC opponent – last season, they lost 35-17 as 12.5-point underdogs to Alabama in Arlington; in 2014, they were catching just three points in a 28-24 loss to these Tigers in Houston.


While Avello gives Wisconsin some (but not full) home-field advantage in Green Bay, he believes the double-digit spread is justified.


Andrews has been writing good two-way action on the contest.


"Money’s been both ways from both the public and the sharp guys," Andrews said.

North Carolina vs. Georgia (-2.5, 57), (at Georgia Dome), 5:30 p.m. ET, Saturday


Georgia is ranked No. 18 in the preseason AP poll, and while the South Point is dealing a win total of 8.5 on the Bulldogs, Andrews is dubious on Kirby Smart’s prospects his first year in Athens.


Pro bettors at the South Point are taking the points.


"I’ve had some sharp money show up on North Carolina, and to tell you the truth, I can see it," Andrews said. "I think Georgia may be a tad overrated, and I think North Carolina is going to be very good again."


Similar to Wisconsin at Lambeau, Georgia has a slight home-field edge in Atlanta, according to Avello.


"The spread is right," he added. "I can see this game going either way."

USC vs. Alabama (-11, 53.5), (AT&T Stadium), 8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday


As one may have expected, Alabama has taken the early the money, with the spread bet from -9 to -10.5 at the South Point and -11 elsewhere.


"Mostly two-way action (early), but lately a little more Alabama money from both public and sharp guys," Andrews said.


While the Crimson Tide’s quarterback situation remains in flux, Avello is, like most bettors, unconcerned about Nick Saban’s men.


"I know that defensively they’ll be there," Avello said. "I’m not sure how good the Alabama offense will be early, but let’s not forget, there are some (great offensive) players for Alabama, other than the quarterback, who can make an impact."


Clemson (-7.5, 62) at Auburn, 9:00 p.m. ET, Saturday


Andrews opened Clemson -8, was bet down to -7 in late August, before settling at -7.5. That’s where most of Vegas sits on this game.


"I’ve had two-way action from the public and wiseguys," Andrews said. "So this looks like a pretty good betting game to me."


The offseason turmoil at Auburn has Avello rethinking his position on the Tigers.


"I was expecting a better season, but preseason, they’ve fallen apart," Avello said. "We’ll see if the coach (Gus Malzahn) can put it back together. He better put it back together – he could be on the hot seat."


Notre Dame (-3.5, 60) at Texas, 7:30 p.m. ET, Sunday


Speaking of offseason turmoil, two separate incidents on the same Friday night a few weeks ago resulted in the dismissal of Notre Dame starting safety Max Redfield and the suspension of cornerback Devin Butler.


The spread at The Wynn moved from Notre Dame -4.5 to -3.5 after the news, but action on Texas started coming in before that.


"I took some pretty good money (on Texas +4.5) before the suspensions," Avello said. "I wasn’t sure if the guys that bet it knew the suspension was coming or just liked that side."


Neither should you dismiss the Longhorns after two straight losing seasons. In both bookmakers’ opinions, Charlie Strong has this team heading in the right direction.


"I think they’re both very good teams, but Texas is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year," Andrews said. "I expect them to have a good season."

Ole Miss vs. Florida State (-4.5, 57), (at Camping World Stadium), 8:00 p.m. ET, Monday


Opening week of the 2016 college football seasons culminates with this gem, the line for which has been as high as FSU -6.5 and as low as -4.


Avello and Andrews – from a handicapping perspective, not necessarily a bookmaking one – are on different sides of the Monday nighter.


"I would lean toward Florida State just because I believe they are one of those teams that could be in the hunt for the national championship," said Avello.


Andrews counters, "A lot of people have forgotten how good Mississippi is, and no knock on Florida State – who I also think is very good – but Ole Miss is gonna be a real good team again this year and they’ve had some off the field issues, but on the field, they’re gonna be very, very good. I kind of like Mississippi in that game."

In other action….


While Andrews says the stellar quality of the best Week 1 games is resulting in excellent action at the South Point, his shop has been seeing business up and down the board.”


Ball State vs. Georgia State and Indiana vs. FIU are among the more obscure games people are betting in Week 1.


Sharps were on Indiana and Minnesota very early at the South Point, and the public has come in later at much bigger numbers. The Hoosiers opened -3 at Andrews’ shop and were bet up to -9.5; the Gophers opened -7.5 at home vs. Oregon State and moved to -12.5.


Georgia State has been another wiseguy play, as the Panthers have been bet from +5.5 to +3.5.


Pros, Avello added, took Kansas State and the two touchdowns-plus vs. highly-regarded Stanford.


Of course, most the action will come the day of the games, when Avello sees public bettors doing what they usually do: playing the chalk.


"I think the public’s gonna bet some of the big favorites," Avello said. "They’re gonna lay the Louisvilles against the Charlottes, Tennessee against Appalachian State, Iowa against Miami (Ohio) and Ohio State against Bowling Green. The typical good team vs. bad team matchups."


Odds Subject to Change – Updated 8.30.16 – 5:00 p.m. ET