4th Quarter Covers - Week 1
September 6, 2016
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the opening college football weekend. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
Indiana (-10) 34, Florida International 13: After a slow start, Indiana took a 12-3 lead with its first touchdown of the season coming on a 34-yard interception return. With a touchdown before the half, double-digit underdog Florida International was able to answer to trail by just two points. Defense controlled the third quarter, but in the final minute, Florida International kicked a field goal to take a 13-12 lead heading into the final frame. Indiana’s offense finally provided a few big plays and built a 20-13 lead early in the fourth quarter and despite reaching Hoosier territory on its next possession, the Panthers had to punt the ball back. Indiana got past the spread for the first time in the game with a nine-play scoring drive to lead by 14 with less than seven minutes to go in the game. FIU was stopped on downs in Indiana territory on its next possession, but the defense held to get the ball back only to watch Indiana return another interception for a touchdown as the Hoosiers outscored FIU 22-0 in the fourth quarter to go from trailing in the game to comfortably covering the hefty road favorite spread in a very misleading final score.
South Carolina (+5) 13, Vanderbilt 10: The Commodores have had little success in this series, but with a 10-0 lead at the half, Vanderbilt was in a great position. South Carolina got on the board with a field goal in the third quarter, but Vanderbilt still held a seven-point lead going into the fourth quarter to sit ahead of the home favorite spread. Behind senior Perry Orth, South Carolina delivered an 84-yard drive to tie the game about halfway through the final quarter and in an attempt to get the lead back, Vanderbilt failed on a 45-yard field goal try. South Carolina managed to deliver a successful kick from 55 yards with 35 seconds on the clock to steal a big SEC road win for Will Muschamp in his debut leading the Gamecocks.
Stanford (-11½) 26, Kansas State 13: Stanford’s season got off to a strong start with a 17-0 lead, but Kansas State hit a field goal just before halftime to get on the board, leaving the margin right in the middle of Stanford’s home favorite spread that was as high as -16 and dropped down to just -11½ by kickoff. Kansas State trimmed the lead to just 11 points with a third quarter field goal as neither team was able to deliver much offense in the second half. Pinned deep, Kansas State suffered a safety with just over four minutes to go to put the margin back to 13. The Wildcats then delivered their best offensive drive of the day with a seven-play touchdown drive and with just over two minutes to go it was a six-point game. The on-side kick attempt failed and Christian McCaffrey needed just one carry to put Stanford back up by 13, again right in the middle of the potential spreads on the game. Kansas State threatened to score again late reaching the Stanford 26-yard line, but eventually went backwards with a penalty and a sack as Stanford held on despite rather modest yardage production.
Georgia Tech (-3) 17, Boston College 14: The early start ACC game in Ireland proved to be a great game with a dramatic fourth quarter after the teams were knotted up at 7-7 through three quarters. The Boston College running game picked up some momentum and finally took the lead with a touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter, following up the second missed field goal of the game for the Eagles. Down seven, the Yellow Jackets settled for a field goal with about six minutes to go and then forced the punt it needed to get the ball back. With an 11-play drive that included a 4th-and-19 conversion, Georgia Tech punched into the end zone with 35 seconds to go to score the win though they wound up with a push or loss on the spread as +3½ did become available at some outlets for the Eagles.
Iowa (-27½) 45, Miami, OH 21: Early in the second half, an Iowa touchdown put the margin at 28 with the Hawkeyes leading 35-7 and in complete control, but Miami would score the next two touchdowns to climb within 14 with about 10 minutes to go in the game. The Hawkeyes wound up settling for a 22-yard field goal on its next possession, perhaps the key play in the game relative to the spread as when Iowa added another touchdown following a turnover late in the game the margin only reach 24 instead of 28 and the Redhawks wound up an underdog winner. Despite the sizable edge on the scoreboard, Miami had 20 more net yards and eight more first downs in the game, but also three more turnovers.
Western Michigan (+3) 22, Northwestern 21: The spread on this game fell all week and while Northwestern jumped out to a 7-0 lead Western Michigan was in front 13-7 early in the third quarter. By the end of the third quarter, the lead was 16-14 as the Broncos could not pull away with three of the four scores being just field goals. Justin Jackson scored his third touchdown of the game to give the Wildcats a five-point edge in the fourth quarter, enough to cover the late week numbers for the home favorite. Western Michigan ate over six minutes of clock for a great drive, but they wound up with fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line, successfully rushing in to take a one-point lead. Northwestern drove right down the field and was a threat to take the lead back and even possibly still cover with a touchdown. On first-and-goal from the Western Michigan 6-yard line, Clayton Thorson fumbled just on the edge of the goal line, the ball went into the end zone heading out of bounds where it was inexplicably batted back into play by a Western Michigan defender and appeared to have been recovered by Northwestern for what would have been the go-ahead score. After review it was ruled out of bounds for touchback and the Broncos picked up two first downs to ice the game in a wild finish.
Southern Miss (+3) 44, Kentucky 35: Knowing a tough SEC schedule is waiting, this was a critical opening game for Kentucky and the Wildcats appeared more than ready with a 35-10 lead in the final minute of the first half. Southern Miss took a bit of momentum into the break with a 71-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of the second quarter to cut the deficit to just 18 points. In the second half, the Golden Eagles took over, eventually taking the lead with just over a minute to go in the third quarter and eventually out-scoring Kentucky 27-0 in the second half as Kentucky’s offensive drives after the break resulted in two punts and three turnovers.
Clemson (-8) 19, Auburn 13: In the big Saturday night matchup, defense led the way in a surprise as the game had a total listed above 60. After a scoreless first quarter, Clemson took a 10-3 lead into the break with both sides missing some opportunities. Clemson hit a field goal in the third quarter to surpass the road favorite spread but that result was matched early in the fourth quarter to keep the margin at seven. With 10 minutes to go in the game, Clemson scored its second touchdown on Deshaun Watson’s first touchdown pass of the season to complete a 75-yard drive, pulling ahead by 13 as the extra-point was missed. Auburn looked poised to get back within the spread as they quickly moved into Clemson territory and then converted a key fourth down play, but in four cracks from inside the 10, Auburn came up empty with the drive ending in a fourth down interception. Ben Boulware catching that pass cost Clemson seven yards in field goal position and pinned deep Clemson punted the ball back with Auburn getting great field position. This time Auburn cashed in with a touchdown to cut the margin to six points with fewer than four minutes remaining in the game. Those on the favorite had some hope late as Clemson was looking to run out the game clock, but eventually stalled on the Auburn 17-yard line with 40 seconds to go, opting to go for it on fourth down rather than kicking a field goal that would have put Clemson up by nine, a move that puzzled many, especially those laying points in this game. Auburn had the underdog cover in hand, but also created a major scare in the final seconds as two Hail Mary shots from the Clemson 40 were on target.
Texas A&M (-4½) 31, UCLA 24: The Bruins led early and had a yardage edge, but Texas A&M took control in the third quarter with two touchdown drives to lead 24-9. In the final five minutes, UCLA made a great late charge with back-to-back scoring drives, getting touchdowns instead of the field goals as they did early in the game. On the second score with less than three minutes to go, UCLA got the two-point conversion to tie the game, which was good news for Bruins fans, but bad news for Bruins backers on a spread that had a late climb from +3 to as high as +4½. In the final minute, UCLA got the ball back near midfield but quarterback Josh Rosen had his third interception of the game though the Bruins held on defense to force overtime. Texas A&M went first and while it took eight plays the Aggies found the end zone, going for it on fourth-and-goal rather than kicking a field goal in another play that cost those on the Bruins. UCLA looked poised to answer reaching the Texas A&M 5-yard line, but back-to-back drops ended the game as Texas A&M escaped with the win and a very fortunate home favorite cover.
Georgia (-3½) 33, North Carolina 24: North Carolina got a kickoff return touchdown to start the second half and then delivered another touchdown drive later in the third quarter to take a 10-point lead in Atlanta. Georgia cut the deficit to three points with a 75-yard scoring drive and then got a safety to get within one-point heading into the final frame. After trading punts, Georgia took the lead with a field goal but still sat short of the favorite spread up by two with just over five minutes to go. After forcing a punt, Georgia needed just one play from scrimmage to find the end zone as Nick Chubb broke a 55-yard touchdown run to put the Bulldogs up nine. North Carolina had a chance to spoil the cover late as they reached the Georgia 29-yard line in the final minutes before running out of downs.
Nebraska (-29) 43, Fresno State 10: After having a lot of close calls last season, Nebraska saw a 14-0 lead slip to just 14-10 in the final minutes of the first half. In the third quarter, Nebraska added another touchdown to lead by 11, but covering an over four touchdown spread looked quite unlikely. Nebraska kept its first team offense on the field and added two touchdowns to lead by 26 with still almost 10 minutes to go in the game. The next Fresno State drive went well into Nebraska territory before turning over on down and the Cornhuskers got the score they needed for the late cover as backups delivered a touchdown drive to put the margin at 33 points with less than five minutes to go. The favorite cover looked short-lived as Frenso State moved into the red zone in the final minutes eventually reaching first-and-goal from the Nebraska 4-yard line before an interception sealed the win and cover for Nebraska.
BYU (-1) 18, Arizona 16: The line on this game was near-even all week though for most flipping from Arizona as a slight favorite to BYU as a slight favorite with that spread even hitting -2½ for a few moments before closing at -1 for the road team. With both teams featuring great potential on offense, there were no points in the first quarter and through three quarters BYU led 9-3 before an exciting final frame. BYU seemed to pull away with another touchdown, but they again failed on the conversion and led just 15-3 to keep Arizona within two scores. Arizona delivered a touchdown drive to climb within five with fewer than 10 minutes to go and then Arizona took the lead with 1:26 to go as Nick Wilson broke a 49-yard run. The two-point conversion attempt failed over to keep the lead at just one-point and a 33-yard field goal in the final seconds gave BYU the win as well as the cover for most.
Texas (+3½) 50, Notre Dame 47: The Sunday night game looked like a breakout performance for Texas taking a 31-14 lead early, but Notre Dame climbed to within three heading into the fourth quarter. The Irish took the lead and got just past the small favorite spread with a touchdown with 11 minutes to go in the game but Texas answered to go up by two. On the extra-point attempt the kick was blocked and incredibly returned to the end zone to give Notre Dame two points and the tie with just over three minutes to go. Both teams had possessions in the final minutes but overtime was needed. Texas went first and scored on four plays and Notre Dame only needed one play to tie it up. Going first in the second overtime, the Irish stalled and settled for a field goal while the Longhorns hit the end zone for the upset.
Florida State (-3½) 45, Mississippi 34: In a weekend with a lot of tough outcomes for the SEC, Ole Miss appeared ready to get a big win for the conference Monday night. Chad Kelly had a great start to lead the Rebels to a 28-6 lead late in the second quarter as an underdog in Orlando. The Seminoles trimmed the deficit to 15 points just before the half and then came alive in the third quarter aided by turnovers, out-scoring Mississippi 23-0 in the quarter to take an eight-point lead into the final frame. The Rebels would score early in the fourth quarter to close to within five points after missing the two-point conversion attempt and that would have been enough for some on the underdog as the spread climbed as high as -6 over the weekend. Florida State added two more field goals in the final 10 minutes however to seal the win and cover for the favored Seminoles.
September 6, 2016
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the opening college football weekend. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
Indiana (-10) 34, Florida International 13: After a slow start, Indiana took a 12-3 lead with its first touchdown of the season coming on a 34-yard interception return. With a touchdown before the half, double-digit underdog Florida International was able to answer to trail by just two points. Defense controlled the third quarter, but in the final minute, Florida International kicked a field goal to take a 13-12 lead heading into the final frame. Indiana’s offense finally provided a few big plays and built a 20-13 lead early in the fourth quarter and despite reaching Hoosier territory on its next possession, the Panthers had to punt the ball back. Indiana got past the spread for the first time in the game with a nine-play scoring drive to lead by 14 with less than seven minutes to go in the game. FIU was stopped on downs in Indiana territory on its next possession, but the defense held to get the ball back only to watch Indiana return another interception for a touchdown as the Hoosiers outscored FIU 22-0 in the fourth quarter to go from trailing in the game to comfortably covering the hefty road favorite spread in a very misleading final score.
South Carolina (+5) 13, Vanderbilt 10: The Commodores have had little success in this series, but with a 10-0 lead at the half, Vanderbilt was in a great position. South Carolina got on the board with a field goal in the third quarter, but Vanderbilt still held a seven-point lead going into the fourth quarter to sit ahead of the home favorite spread. Behind senior Perry Orth, South Carolina delivered an 84-yard drive to tie the game about halfway through the final quarter and in an attempt to get the lead back, Vanderbilt failed on a 45-yard field goal try. South Carolina managed to deliver a successful kick from 55 yards with 35 seconds on the clock to steal a big SEC road win for Will Muschamp in his debut leading the Gamecocks.
Stanford (-11½) 26, Kansas State 13: Stanford’s season got off to a strong start with a 17-0 lead, but Kansas State hit a field goal just before halftime to get on the board, leaving the margin right in the middle of Stanford’s home favorite spread that was as high as -16 and dropped down to just -11½ by kickoff. Kansas State trimmed the lead to just 11 points with a third quarter field goal as neither team was able to deliver much offense in the second half. Pinned deep, Kansas State suffered a safety with just over four minutes to go to put the margin back to 13. The Wildcats then delivered their best offensive drive of the day with a seven-play touchdown drive and with just over two minutes to go it was a six-point game. The on-side kick attempt failed and Christian McCaffrey needed just one carry to put Stanford back up by 13, again right in the middle of the potential spreads on the game. Kansas State threatened to score again late reaching the Stanford 26-yard line, but eventually went backwards with a penalty and a sack as Stanford held on despite rather modest yardage production.
Georgia Tech (-3) 17, Boston College 14: The early start ACC game in Ireland proved to be a great game with a dramatic fourth quarter after the teams were knotted up at 7-7 through three quarters. The Boston College running game picked up some momentum and finally took the lead with a touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter, following up the second missed field goal of the game for the Eagles. Down seven, the Yellow Jackets settled for a field goal with about six minutes to go and then forced the punt it needed to get the ball back. With an 11-play drive that included a 4th-and-19 conversion, Georgia Tech punched into the end zone with 35 seconds to go to score the win though they wound up with a push or loss on the spread as +3½ did become available at some outlets for the Eagles.
Iowa (-27½) 45, Miami, OH 21: Early in the second half, an Iowa touchdown put the margin at 28 with the Hawkeyes leading 35-7 and in complete control, but Miami would score the next two touchdowns to climb within 14 with about 10 minutes to go in the game. The Hawkeyes wound up settling for a 22-yard field goal on its next possession, perhaps the key play in the game relative to the spread as when Iowa added another touchdown following a turnover late in the game the margin only reach 24 instead of 28 and the Redhawks wound up an underdog winner. Despite the sizable edge on the scoreboard, Miami had 20 more net yards and eight more first downs in the game, but also three more turnovers.
Western Michigan (+3) 22, Northwestern 21: The spread on this game fell all week and while Northwestern jumped out to a 7-0 lead Western Michigan was in front 13-7 early in the third quarter. By the end of the third quarter, the lead was 16-14 as the Broncos could not pull away with three of the four scores being just field goals. Justin Jackson scored his third touchdown of the game to give the Wildcats a five-point edge in the fourth quarter, enough to cover the late week numbers for the home favorite. Western Michigan ate over six minutes of clock for a great drive, but they wound up with fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line, successfully rushing in to take a one-point lead. Northwestern drove right down the field and was a threat to take the lead back and even possibly still cover with a touchdown. On first-and-goal from the Western Michigan 6-yard line, Clayton Thorson fumbled just on the edge of the goal line, the ball went into the end zone heading out of bounds where it was inexplicably batted back into play by a Western Michigan defender and appeared to have been recovered by Northwestern for what would have been the go-ahead score. After review it was ruled out of bounds for touchback and the Broncos picked up two first downs to ice the game in a wild finish.
Southern Miss (+3) 44, Kentucky 35: Knowing a tough SEC schedule is waiting, this was a critical opening game for Kentucky and the Wildcats appeared more than ready with a 35-10 lead in the final minute of the first half. Southern Miss took a bit of momentum into the break with a 71-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of the second quarter to cut the deficit to just 18 points. In the second half, the Golden Eagles took over, eventually taking the lead with just over a minute to go in the third quarter and eventually out-scoring Kentucky 27-0 in the second half as Kentucky’s offensive drives after the break resulted in two punts and three turnovers.
Clemson (-8) 19, Auburn 13: In the big Saturday night matchup, defense led the way in a surprise as the game had a total listed above 60. After a scoreless first quarter, Clemson took a 10-3 lead into the break with both sides missing some opportunities. Clemson hit a field goal in the third quarter to surpass the road favorite spread but that result was matched early in the fourth quarter to keep the margin at seven. With 10 minutes to go in the game, Clemson scored its second touchdown on Deshaun Watson’s first touchdown pass of the season to complete a 75-yard drive, pulling ahead by 13 as the extra-point was missed. Auburn looked poised to get back within the spread as they quickly moved into Clemson territory and then converted a key fourth down play, but in four cracks from inside the 10, Auburn came up empty with the drive ending in a fourth down interception. Ben Boulware catching that pass cost Clemson seven yards in field goal position and pinned deep Clemson punted the ball back with Auburn getting great field position. This time Auburn cashed in with a touchdown to cut the margin to six points with fewer than four minutes remaining in the game. Those on the favorite had some hope late as Clemson was looking to run out the game clock, but eventually stalled on the Auburn 17-yard line with 40 seconds to go, opting to go for it on fourth down rather than kicking a field goal that would have put Clemson up by nine, a move that puzzled many, especially those laying points in this game. Auburn had the underdog cover in hand, but also created a major scare in the final seconds as two Hail Mary shots from the Clemson 40 were on target.
Texas A&M (-4½) 31, UCLA 24: The Bruins led early and had a yardage edge, but Texas A&M took control in the third quarter with two touchdown drives to lead 24-9. In the final five minutes, UCLA made a great late charge with back-to-back scoring drives, getting touchdowns instead of the field goals as they did early in the game. On the second score with less than three minutes to go, UCLA got the two-point conversion to tie the game, which was good news for Bruins fans, but bad news for Bruins backers on a spread that had a late climb from +3 to as high as +4½. In the final minute, UCLA got the ball back near midfield but quarterback Josh Rosen had his third interception of the game though the Bruins held on defense to force overtime. Texas A&M went first and while it took eight plays the Aggies found the end zone, going for it on fourth-and-goal rather than kicking a field goal in another play that cost those on the Bruins. UCLA looked poised to answer reaching the Texas A&M 5-yard line, but back-to-back drops ended the game as Texas A&M escaped with the win and a very fortunate home favorite cover.
Georgia (-3½) 33, North Carolina 24: North Carolina got a kickoff return touchdown to start the second half and then delivered another touchdown drive later in the third quarter to take a 10-point lead in Atlanta. Georgia cut the deficit to three points with a 75-yard scoring drive and then got a safety to get within one-point heading into the final frame. After trading punts, Georgia took the lead with a field goal but still sat short of the favorite spread up by two with just over five minutes to go. After forcing a punt, Georgia needed just one play from scrimmage to find the end zone as Nick Chubb broke a 55-yard touchdown run to put the Bulldogs up nine. North Carolina had a chance to spoil the cover late as they reached the Georgia 29-yard line in the final minutes before running out of downs.
Nebraska (-29) 43, Fresno State 10: After having a lot of close calls last season, Nebraska saw a 14-0 lead slip to just 14-10 in the final minutes of the first half. In the third quarter, Nebraska added another touchdown to lead by 11, but covering an over four touchdown spread looked quite unlikely. Nebraska kept its first team offense on the field and added two touchdowns to lead by 26 with still almost 10 minutes to go in the game. The next Fresno State drive went well into Nebraska territory before turning over on down and the Cornhuskers got the score they needed for the late cover as backups delivered a touchdown drive to put the margin at 33 points with less than five minutes to go. The favorite cover looked short-lived as Frenso State moved into the red zone in the final minutes eventually reaching first-and-goal from the Nebraska 4-yard line before an interception sealed the win and cover for Nebraska.
BYU (-1) 18, Arizona 16: The line on this game was near-even all week though for most flipping from Arizona as a slight favorite to BYU as a slight favorite with that spread even hitting -2½ for a few moments before closing at -1 for the road team. With both teams featuring great potential on offense, there were no points in the first quarter and through three quarters BYU led 9-3 before an exciting final frame. BYU seemed to pull away with another touchdown, but they again failed on the conversion and led just 15-3 to keep Arizona within two scores. Arizona delivered a touchdown drive to climb within five with fewer than 10 minutes to go and then Arizona took the lead with 1:26 to go as Nick Wilson broke a 49-yard run. The two-point conversion attempt failed over to keep the lead at just one-point and a 33-yard field goal in the final seconds gave BYU the win as well as the cover for most.
Texas (+3½) 50, Notre Dame 47: The Sunday night game looked like a breakout performance for Texas taking a 31-14 lead early, but Notre Dame climbed to within three heading into the fourth quarter. The Irish took the lead and got just past the small favorite spread with a touchdown with 11 minutes to go in the game but Texas answered to go up by two. On the extra-point attempt the kick was blocked and incredibly returned to the end zone to give Notre Dame two points and the tie with just over three minutes to go. Both teams had possessions in the final minutes but overtime was needed. Texas went first and scored on four plays and Notre Dame only needed one play to tie it up. Going first in the second overtime, the Irish stalled and settled for a field goal while the Longhorns hit the end zone for the upset.
Florida State (-3½) 45, Mississippi 34: In a weekend with a lot of tough outcomes for the SEC, Ole Miss appeared ready to get a big win for the conference Monday night. Chad Kelly had a great start to lead the Rebels to a 28-6 lead late in the second quarter as an underdog in Orlando. The Seminoles trimmed the deficit to 15 points just before the half and then came alive in the third quarter aided by turnovers, out-scoring Mississippi 23-0 in the quarter to take an eight-point lead into the final frame. The Rebels would score early in the fourth quarter to close to within five points after missing the two-point conversion attempt and that would have been enough for some on the underdog as the spread climbed as high as -6 over the weekend. Florida State added two more field goals in the final 10 minutes however to seal the win and cover for the favored Seminoles.
