Cnotes 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, NOV. 12


Matchup Skinny Edge


NORTHWESTERN at PURDUE...Cats have covered 5 of last 7 TY. NU 6-1 vs. spread last seven as visitor. Purdue no covers first three as Ross-Ade dog TY and 1-10 last 11 in role.
Northwestern, based on team trends.


PITT at CLEMSON...Narduzzi 5-3 as visiting dog. Dabo just 2-4-1 vs. spread last seven at Death Valley and 6-9-1 last 16 as DD chalk.
Pitt, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI at UCF...Pretty good debut for Frost at UCF, covers in 6 of last 7 and 7 of 9 TY in a big turnaround. Tuberville 2-8 vs. spread last ten since late LY. Bearcats also “under” 8-0-1 in 2016!
UCF and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


OHIO STATE at MARYLAND...Bucks 1-4 vs. line last five TY after covering six straight previous. But road team has covered last two years in series. Terps only 3-6 vs. spread TY for Durkin.
Slight to OSU, based on extended trends.


PENN STATE at INDIANA...James Franklin 4-0-1 vs. line last five TY and 2-1 vs. line away TY after no covers last six away from Happy Valley LY. But Franklin 1-4 last five as visiting chalk. Hoosiers mostly a middling spread proposition for Wilson, 7-7 vs. spread last 14 at Bloomington.
Slight to Indiana, based on extended trends.


WAKE FOREST at LOUISVILLE...Deacs have covered last two years vs. ‘Ville, and Clawson 7-2 last 9 as dog. Wake 10-5 last 15 as DD dog. Cards 3-1 vs. line at Papa John’s TY.
Wake Forest, based on team and recent series trends.


IOWA STATE at KANSAS...ISU 5-1 SU, 4-2 vs. line last six meetings. Jayhawks 2-5 last seven vs. line as Big 12 host and just 6-17 last 23 overall vs. points. ISU 6-1 vs. line last seven TY after OU cover.
ISU, based on team trends.

SMU at EAST CAROLINA...Pirates 1-6-1 vs. line last 8 TY. SMU has covered 6 of 9 on line TY and 4-1 vs. line away in 2016.
SMU, based on recent trends.


TULSA at NAVY... Mids battered Tulsa LY and Navy 3-0-1 vs. line at Annapolis TY, 9-1-1 since LY. Tulsa however 9-2 vs. line away since LY and has covered four straight TY.
Slight to Navy, based on team trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at BUFFALO... Miami-O has now covered four straight TY and 11-4 last 15 on board since late LY. Bulls have won SU last four in series but Leipold just 3-6 vs. line TY and 3-11 last 14 on board.
Miami-Ohio, based on recent trends.


NC STATE at SYRACUSE...Road team has covered last three years in series. Wolfpack 10-4 as chalk past two years.
NC State, based on series and team trends.


GEORGIA TECH at VIRGINIA TECH...Paul Johnson only 8-9 last 17 as dog in once very-profitable role. Road team has covered last six in series, however, and Johnson 4-0 vs. spread at Blacksburg since 2008.
Georgia Tech, based on series road trends.


TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA STATE...Gundy has won and covered 6 of last 7 in series. “Overs” last four meetings with heavy scoring. Kingsbury 5-2 vs. spread last seven as visiting dog.
OSU, based on series trends.


OLE MISS at TEXAS A&M... Hugh Freeze enduring worst spread season, as Rebs 3-6 vs. line and no covers last 4 TY. Ole Miss no covers first three away from Oxford TY. Though Freeze is 4-0 vs. line against A&M. Ags no covers last five TY (0-3-1) and Sumlin 5-10-1 last 16 as home chalk (2-1-1 TY).
Ole Miss, based on series trends.


RICE at CHARLOTTE...Charlotte surging with covers last four TY. Rice on 5-12-1 spread skid since early 2015.
Charlotte, based on recent trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at ARKANSAS STATE...Red Wolves romped last two years vs. Ags. NMSU actually 8-5 last 13 vs. spread, though only 1-3 as road dog TY. Red Wolves have now covered four straight TY.
Arkansas State, based on recent series trends.


WYOMING at UNLV...Rebs just 5-11 last 16 vs. line since mid 2015 and no covers last six as Sam Boyd dog. Bohl has covered last five TY, and 11-5-1 last 17 on board. Cowboys 4-1 SU and vs. line last five meetings.
Wyoming, based on team and series trends.


COLORADO STATE at AIR FORCE...Calhoun 6-3 SU and vs. line against CSU since 2007. But Mike Bobo has covered last 4 TY and 6-1-1 last eight on board.
CSU, based on recent trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at ALABAMA...Saban has not lost SU to MSU since his first Bama team lost in 2007, and is 4-3 vs. line last 7 vs. Dan Mullen. Tide just 5-8-1 vs. line last 14 at Tuscaloosa, but is 5-1 vs. spread last six TY.
Alabama, based on recent trends.


NORTH TEXAS at WKU...UNT 5-2-1 vs. line last seven TY. Mean Green 3-1-1 vs. line TY as DD dog. Tops 8-4 last 12 as home chalk.
North Texas, based on recent trends.


APP STATE at TROY...Troy no covers last three TY after 4-0-1 spread break from gate, Trojans only 3-5-1 last nine vs. line as host. App 11-2 vs. line last 13 as visitor and has won SU last two years vs. Troy.
App State, based on team and series trends.


AUBURN at GEORGIA...Malzahn 7-2 SU and vs. line TY. Kirby Smart 3-5 vs. line TY. UGa 4-1 SU and vs. line last five in series.
Auburn, based on recent trends.


ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN...Lovie is 3-0 vs. line as visitor this season, and Illini have covered last two years in series, losing identical 38-28 scorelines. Illinois has actually covered last five away from Champaign-Urbana. Chryst 7-2 vs. line TY but only 1-1 as DD chalk and 4-5 laying DD for Chryst since LY. Badgers 5-9 vs. line last 14 at Camp Randall.
Slight to Illinois, based on team and recent series trends.

KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE...Vols 3-5-1 vs. line in 2016, 2-3 vs. line at Knoxville. Meanwhile Stoops 5-1 last six vs. line Though Vols have won and covered last four in series since 10-7 loss under Derek Dooley in 2011. And that was first UK win in series since 1984!
Kentucky, based on recent trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA...Muschamp 3-3 as dog TY but 11-6-1 last 18 in role with Gators and Gamecocks. McElwain 5-9 vs. spread last 14.
Slight to South Carolina, based on team trends.

LSU at ARKANSAS...Bielema had covered 10 of 12 as dog before dropping 3 of last 5 in role TY. Orgeron 9-3 SU and 8-4 vs. line as interim with SC in 2013 and LSU TY . Bielema has brutalized LSU last two years and Hogs have covered last four in series.
Slight to LSU, based on recent trends.


STANFORD at OREGON...Oregon has won and covered last two meetings but Ducks just 1-9-1 last 11 vs. spread since late LY. Ducks 1-5 vs. spread last six at Eugene. Tree 3-1 vs. line away TY and 8-2 vs. points last 10 away from Palo Alto.
Stanford, based on team trends.


ARMY vs. NOTRE DAME (at San Antonio)...ND 4-9-1 last 14 vs. line, 2-7 last 9 as chalk. Army 8-2-2 vs. spread last 12 away.
Army, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at ODU...USM 1-7 vs. line last eight TY, ODU 5-1 last six vs. number in 2016 and 9-4 spread run since late LY.
OSU, based on recent trends.


RUTGERS at MICHIGAN STATE...Dantonio 2-7 vs. line TY and 7-16 since LY, 0-7 as chalk TY, 3-15 last 17 as chalk!
Slight to Rutgers, based on MSU chalk woes.


MIAMI-FLA. at VIRGINIA...Cavs 4-1-1 vs. line last six in series. Bronco Mendenhall BYU and UVa teams 17-10 last 26 as dog and Cavs 9-3 as last 12 as Scott Stadium dog.
Virginia, based on team and series trends.


UTSA at LA TECH...UTSA has covered four straight years vs. La Tech. Though Roadrunners 1-5-1 last six as visitor. Skip on 5-game win and cover streak TY and 25-12 vs. spread since 2014.
Slight to La Tech, based on recent trends.

CAL at WASHINGTON STATE...Cal 1-4 vs. line TY away from Berkeley, 2-7 last nine away since mid 2015. Dykes 2-5 last seven as road dog. Leach has covered 2 of last 3 in series and 14-5 last 19 on board.
WSU, based on team trends.


IDAHO at TEXAS STATE...Idaho 0-1 in rare road chalk role since 2011 but is 14-4 vs. points last 18 as visitor. Bobcats 7-13 vs. line since 2015 and have failed to cover last two vs. Vandals.
Idaho, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at WASHINGTON...Trojans have won last five SU and covered four of those TY, but are 0-3 as away dog TY, and just 1-7 last 8 in that role. Petersen 8-4 last 12 vs. line since late LY.
Slight to Washington, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at UCLA... Mora just 13-23 vs. line since late in 2012 season and just 2-9 last 11 vs. line at Rose Bowl. Beavers have covered last five TY and Andersen 4-1 vs. spread last five away.
OSU, based on recent trends.


UTEP at FAU...Owls 2-7 vs. line TY and 0-4 in Boca Raton. FAU also 5-14-1 last 20 on board overall. Owls 1-11 vs. spread last 12 as host! Miners 4-2 vs. spread last six away and won vs. FAU at Sun Bowl LY.
UTEP, based on FAU woes.

BOISE STATE at HAWAII...Boise only 2-6-1 vs. line TY after SJSU non-cover but a bit better 2-1-1 vs. line away. Broncos 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten away from blue carpet. UH 2-11 vs. line last 13 vs. spread at Aloha.
Boise State, based on team trends.


MTSU at MARSHALL...Herd 2-7 SU and 3-6 vs. line TY, no covers last four at home. MTSU 6-4-1 vs. spread as visitor since LY.
MTSU, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS...Holgorsen 2-2 SU and vs. line against Texas since 2012. But Mounties just 2-8 vs. line last ten away from Morgantown (1-2 TY). Charlie Strong is 4-0 vs. line at Austin this season, 7-1-2 since LY.
Texas, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA...Stoops only 1-4 vs. line last five vs. Baylor, but got the cover LY. OU 5-1 vs. points last six as Big 12 home chalk. Bears 3-11 vs. line last 14 reg.-season games (2-6 for Grobe).
Oklahoma, based on team trends.


MINNESOTA at NEBRASKA...Gophers 9-2-1 last 12 as visiting dog, 6-0-1 last seven vs. spread away from TCF Bank Stadium. Riley 2-2-1 as Lincoln chalk TY but only 3-6-1 in role since LY.
Minnesota, based on team trends.


UL-MONROE at GEORGIA STATE...GSU 12-3-1 vs. line last 16 reg.-season games but only 4-5-1 last ten at mostly-empty Georgia Dome.
Georgia State, based on team trends.


VANDERBILT at MISSOURI...Mizzou no wins or covers last five TY and hasn’t won SU last 11 SEC games. Tigers 3-7 vs. spread last ten decisions at Columbia. Dores 13-5 vs. points last 18 as SEC visitor.
Vandy, based on team trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at MEMPHIS...USF 13-4-1 vs. points last 18 reg,-season games. Memphis 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Bulls have covered last two meetings.
USF, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at IOWA...Harbaugh surprisingly only 7-8 vs. line last 15 reg.-season games. Also only 3-4 vs. line as visitor since LY. But Ferentz just 1-4 vs. spread at Iowa City TY and Hawkeyes just 9-20 vs. spread last 29 at Nile Kinnick Stadium.
Slight to Michigan, based on team trends.


TULANE at HOUSTON...UH no covers last five this season (0-4-1) as Herman spread magic disappears. Cougs just 4-9-1 last 14 vs. spread at TDECU Stadium. Willie Fritz Ga So & Tulane teams 6-2 vs. line last 8 on road.
Tulane, based on team trends.


COLORADO a ARIZONA...Buffs 8-1 vs. line TY, and 13-3 last 16 vs. line since mid 2015. Cats 1-8 vs. line TY, 1-10 last 11 on board.
Colorado, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO at UTAH STATE...Utags 3-11 vs. spread last 14 on board. Lobos 13-7-1 last 21 vs. line away from Albuquerque.
New Mexico, based on team trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at NEVADA...Aztecs 14-2 vs. spread last 16 MW reg.-season games and 6-1 vs. line last seven MW road games. Polian 2-7 vs. line TY, though Pack has covered last two in series.
SDSU, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Florida to start Austin Appleby at QB
November 9, 2016


GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) Florida coach Jim McElwain says quarterback Austin Appleby will start against South Carolina on Saturday.


McElwain made the announcement Wednesday on the weekly Southeastern Conference coaches' call, saying Appleby will start when the 22nd-ranked Gators (6-2, 4-2 SEC) host the Gamecocks (5-4, 3-4). Starter Luke Del Rio will be out "a while" with a right shoulder injury.


McElwain adds that ''we're not afraid'' to play Feleipe Franks, a 6-foot-6 freshman who has yet to make his college debut.


Appleby completed 42 of 67 passes for 440 yards, with three touchdowns and an interception, in two starts in place of Del Rio earlier this season. Appleby was at his best in the first half at Tennessee, but he has been fairly pedestrian in six quarters since.


McElwain says if ''we need a spark, Feleipe could be that guy. Who knows?''

 

[CNOTES]

Troy, Appalachian State set for pivotal Sun Belt showdown
November 9, 2016


MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) Troy and Appalachian State are set for a pivotal Sun Belt Conference showdown one season after waging a three-overtime contest.


The two teams play Saturday at Troy in only the third meeting this deep into the season between Sun Belt teams with unbeaten league marks.


''It's going to be a great college football game,'' Mountaineers coach Scott Satterfield said. ''You've got two of the better teams in the league that are battling, especially this late in the season with everything on the line. This is why you play the game. When you coach the game, you play the game, this is what it's for. It's exciting and it's fun to be a part of this game.''


Troy (7-1, 4-0) hasn't been involved in such a meaningful Sun Belt game since the program's string of five straight league titles ended in 2010. The Trojans have been getting votes in the Associated Press poll for the first time.


The Mountaineers (7-2, 5-0), who won last season's marathon game 44-41, are more familiar with this position having become the only other Sun Belt team to start 7-1 last season.


Both teams are riding six-game winning streaks. Arkansas State (4-4, 4-0) also hasn't lost a league game. Troy hosts the Red Wolves in a Thursday night game next week, while Appalachian State doesn't play them this season.


''People are excited and rightfully so,'' Trojans coach Neal Brown said. ''I am excited about the energy on campus and in our community. Our community support is higher than it has been in the six years I have been a part of the program.''


Troy, whose only loss came 30-24 to No. 3 Clemson, has fallen behind by two touchdowns each of its past two games before rallying.


This is a matchup that's intriguing for more than the stakes. Troy leads the league in scoring offense and Appalachian State is second; that pecking order is reversed for scoring and total defense.


The Mountaineers have run for 218.6 yards per game and a league-best 18 touchdowns behind the Sun Belt's only 1,000-yard rusher, Jalin Moore. Troy has allowed only five rushing touchdowns and 97.8 yards per game. Plus Appalachian State leads the nation in interceptions and Troy is tops nationally in picks per game.


The Trojans also sport the league's No. 2 rusher Jordan Chunn and second-leading passer Brandon Silvers.


''What they did to get to us last year is what they're doing every game this year,'' Satterfield said. ''Last year they were still trying to find themselves early on in the season, and when they played us it was clicking on all cylinders.''


The 36-year-old Brown doesn't want his players getting too swept up in the magnitude of the game.


''Any time you play a game that is perceived as a big game to the outside world and people are going to be talking more about this game, they have to understand, you don't have to play a perfect game to win,'' the second-year head coach and former offensive coordinator said. ''We just have to play really sound. The same thing goes for Appalachian State.''

 

[CNOTES]

Hood, UNC hoping to finish strong
November 9, 2016


DURHAM, N.C. (AP) Elijah Hood is focused on finishing strong for No. 15 North Carolina.


The junior has two straight 100-yard rushing performances entering Thursday night's rivalry game at Duke, a sign he is healthy after missing a game due to an apparent concussion that had followed a slower-than-expected start to the season.


''It's good to see him running like the (No.) 34 we know,'' quarterback Mitch Trubisky said.


Hood was the Atlantic Coast Conference's No. 3 rusher last year with 1,463 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Tar Heels (7-2, 5-1 ACC), averaging 104.5 yards per game. He is a physical runner unafraid of contact. But he got off to a slow start by averaging 61.5 yards through his first six appearances, and also sat out UNC's 34-3 loss to Virginia Tech played in the driving rain of Hurricane Matthew.


After a quiet return against Miami, Hood broke out for 107 yards and a score at Virginia, then ran for a season-high 168 yards and three touchdowns last week against Georgia Tech.


''I feel more explosive I think, just quicker, so that definitely helps when you try to run the ball,'' Hood said. ''I felt like I hit the holes a lot quicker this week. Whenever I try to get my momentum moving that much faster, I'm able to get more yards just per carry.''


The Tar Heels are trying to stay with the Hokies atop the league's Coastal Division, though they need Virginia Tech to lose once to be back in control of their own destiny.


The Blue Devils (3-6, 0-5) are flirting with their first winless season in ACC play since 2007 after winning at least six games in four straight bowl seasons. The past two losses have both come by three points, including last weekend's 24-21 loss to the Hokies that included having a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown.


''We are 3-6 for a reason, you have to look at why,'' Duke coach David Cutcliffe said. ''But you don't whine or you don't complain. You just pick the things to work on. You pick the things you believe are going to make a difference.''


---


Some other things to know about Thursday's UNC-Duke game:


TRUBISKY IN CHARGE: Trubisky ranks as one of the national leaders in completion percentage, passing efficiency and average passing yardage for UNC. ''He manages every aspect of their game,'' Cutcliffe said. ''There's not a throw he can't make.''


QB PRESSURE: The Blue Devils rank among the ACC leaders in sacks (27), so their defensive front will need to get some pressure on Trubisky. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels rank near the bottom of the league with 18 sacks and have had games where they struggled to get pressure on the passer. They're facing a quarterback in Daniel Jones who has run for 169 yards in the past two games.

SHORT TURNAROUND: The teams had to cram in a week's worth of game prep along with treatment of nagging injuries into a five-day schedule following last weekend's games. ''Come Thursday, the adrenaline's rushing,'' Duke defensive tackle A.J. Wolf said, ''You're playing football, everything feels good.''

WILSON'S STATUS: Shaun Wilson, Duke's No. 2 rusher, is probable with what the school called an upper-body injury. He took a helmet-to-helmet hit against Virginia Tech that led to a targeting call against a defender, though Cutcliffe said afterward he had no concussion-related symptoms. Wilson has run for 449 yards and three touchdowns.


VICTORY BELL: The winner gets the Victory Bell, though there could be a break with the tradition of the winner spray-painting its shade of blue on the bell's cart. UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham said he conferred with Duke AD Kevin White before putting a permanent design that split the cart with both team's colors and logos. After the last game in Durham in 2014, UNC had to pay for about $27,000 in paint-related damages to the visiting locker room and practice field from its celebration, and Cunningham said the team won't bring spray paint this time.

 

[CNOTES]

Georgia Tech suspends leading rusher Mills for 2 games
November 9, 2016


ATLANTA (AP) Georgia Tech freshman Dedrick Mills, the team's leading rusher, has been suspended for two games for an undisclosed violation of team rules.


The suspension, announced by coach Paul Johnson on Wednesday, is the second of the season for Mills. He also was held out of Georgia Tech's home opener against Mercer on Sept. 10, also for a violation of team rules.


Mills will miss Saturday's game at No. 18 Virginia Tech and a Nov. 19 game against Virginia. Those are the Yellow Jackets' final two Atlantic Coast Conference games. He will be eligible to play against Georgia on Nov. 26.


Mills leads the team with 578 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. He also missed Georgia Tech's win over Duke on Oct. 29 due to an injury.

 

[CNOTES]

Wilson, Coppet lead Bowling Green past Akron 38-28
November 9, 2016


AKRON, Ohio (AP) Donovan Wilson ran for 119 yards and a touchdown and Fred Coppet had 116 and two scores to help Bowling Green turn back Akron 38-28 on Wednesday night.


Wilson, who entered the game with 131 yards, scored on a 22-yard run with 2:12 left - one play after the Zips failed to cover the kickoff following the Falcons' tiebreaking field goal.


A 76-yard fumble return by Marcus Milton gave Bowling Green (2-8, 1-5 Mid-American), the defending league champions, a 28-10 lead.


The Zips (5-6, 3-4) rallied to tie the game when wide receiver Tyrell Goodman, the third-string quarterback pressed into duty because of injuries, connected with Jerome Lane for a 64-yard touchdown and 2-point conversion, with 10:48 to play. That capped an 11-play, 99-yard drive.


However, Goodman threw interceptions on Akron's next two possessions, the second, by Marcus Milton, leading to Jake Suder's 27-yard field goal.


Coppet had two touchdowns and Ronnie Moore one to give Bowling Green a 21-10 lead at the half.


----------------------------


Woodside rallies Toledo past Northern Illinois 31-24
November 9, 2016


CHICAGO (AP) Kareem Hunt ran for 122 yards and scored a touchdown with 1:15 left in Toledo's 31-24 comeback victory over Northern Illinois on Wednesday night in NIU's Chi-Town Showdown at the Chicago White Sox's Guaranteed Rate Field.


Logan Woodside threw for three touchdowns in the second half after entering the game with 34, tied with Jake Browning of No. 4 Washington for the national lead. That helped the Rockets (8-2, 5-1 Mid-American) overcome a 14-3 halftime deficit and snap a six-game losing streak in the series.


Woodside's second touchdown pass to Michael Roberts gave Toledo its first lead, 24-21, early in the fourth quarter. The Huskies (3-7, 3-3) tied the game on Christian Hagan's 22-yard field goal with 4:31 left but the Rockets answered with a 9-play, 71-yard drive.


Woodside finished 23 of 33 for 286 yards. Jon'Vea Johnson had six catches for 129 yards, including a 39-yard reception to set up the winning score.


Aaron Covington's interception with 15 seconds to play sealed the win.


Ryan Graham had three touchdown passes for the Huskies, one to Kenny Golladay, who had 14 catches for 143 yards. Graham also ran for 97 yards.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s six-pack


College football trends for Week 10..……


— Underdogs covered last five NC State-Syracuse games.


— Auburn lost its last four visits to Georgia.


— Kentucky is 2-7 vs spread in its last nine games at Tennessee.


— Underdogs covered six of last eight Stanford-Oregon games.


— Michigan lost its last three visits to Iowa; Wolverines’ last win in Iowa City was in ’05.


— Underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in last 14 Oregon State-UCLA games.




Thursday’s List of 13: College basketball thoughts……..


Vacation is over; time for me to get back to work, with college basketball tipping off Friday night– ton of games. Here are some random preseason thoughts:


13) Blue Ribbon Magazine’s top 4 teams: Duke-Oregon-Kansas-Kentucky. They have defending champ Villanova at #5, Louisville at #8, Saint Mary’s all the way up at #17.


12) Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have dominated the WCC so much that four of the other eight teams changed coaches last spring. Former NBA players Damon Stoudamire/Terry Porter are at Pacific/Portland, but Herb Sendek at Santa Clara is the best of the new WCC hires.


11) UNLV has almost a whole new team; they’ve had four head coaches in the last 10 months, but Marvin Menzies will do well there, eventually. Problem is, Rebels only had 3 or 4 players left by time he got the job- the work he did to re-stock the roster in the spring was impressive. Menzies can recruit, so as long as he avoids one/done-type kids, UNLV will be back soon.


10) Johnny Dawkins went from Stanford to Central Florida; his son transferred from Michigan to join him at UCF, Jerod Haase left behind a solid team at UAB to replace Dawkins at Stanford.


9) Mike Dunleavy Sr has coached 1,400 NBA games, but zero college games; he is the new coach at Tulane. Wonder if it’ll help his recruiting that his son is Lebron James’ teammate with the Cavaliers? Dunleavy Sr will do just fine on his own, but the AAC is pretty tough.


8) Jamie Dixon wasn’t feeling appreciated at Pitt, so he went back to his alma mater TCU, which has new facilities but has an uphill climb in the brutal Big X. Dixon has recruited his butt off so far and the Horned Frogs may be on the rise.


Kevin Stallings went 66-54 in SEC games the last few years at Vanderbilt, but the natives at Vandy got restless for more, so Stallings replaced Dixon at Pitt and Bryce Drew bolted Valparaiso and a likely Horizon League champ to become Vandy’s new coach.


7) Yale won the Ivy league LY for the first time since 1962, but their best returning player Makai Mason is already out for the year (foot). Mason had 31 against Baylor in the NCAAs.


Ivy League joined the 21st century and will have a 4-team conference tournament this year, so the upper half of the league in the regular season gets to play in the conference tournament.


6) UConn-Cincinnati-SMU are expected to be the best teams in the AAC. Tim Jankovich takes over at SMU for Larry Brown, who skipped town early, as usual. Jankovich is a very good coach so the Mustangs are OK.


5) NC State had a great recruiting year; their new 7-footer Omer Yurtseven from Europe isn’t eligible until Dec 15 but the Wolfpack will hold their own in the 15-team ACC. Josh Pastner has a total rebuild at Georgia Tech after leaving a toxic situation at Memphis. ACC is really tough; Pitino-Williams-Krzyzewski-Boeheim-Bennett, all in the same league and thats leaving out Larranaga and Mike Brey, who are also really good coaches.


4) It still bothers me that half the Big East is in western Ohio or further west, but Xavier is supposed to be really good this year, right behind defending national champ Villanova. I was in Las Vegas for the national title game LY; what a fun night that was, with the two 3-pointers hit in the last 0:10 changing the fortunes of various investors in the room. Good stuff. Curious to see how St John’s is in Chris Mullin’s second year at his alma mater.


3) Five different teams have won the Big Sky title in the last decade; 20 of the league’s top 30 scorers are back from LY. This is as good as the league has been in years, with so many really good returning players. North Dakota is supposed to challenge perennial kingpins Weber State and Montana for the conference championship.


2) For some bizarre reason, the Big 14 is having its conference tournament in Washington DC this year (I know, Maryland is in the league, but still….); the ACC is having its tournament in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn- there are no ACC teams in the NY/NJ area. The A-14 will have its tournament in Pittsburgh, which seems like a bad idea.


1— For me, there are three great Opening Days: baseball, NFL, college hoop. Good twinbill from Hawai’i on Friday; ESPN’s 24-hour marathon starts Monday night. Lot of games to watch, boxscores to look over, things to learn.


Order some pizzas and enjoy the games!!!

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday,November 10


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N CAROLINA (7 - 2) at DUKE (3 - 6) - 11/10/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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LA LAFAYETTE (3 - 5) at GA SOUTHERN (4 - 5) - 11/10/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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UTAH (7 - 2) at ARIZONA ST (5 - 4) - 11/10/2016, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
UTAH is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
UTAH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


-----------------------------


Thursday,November 10


7:30 PM
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE vs. GA SOUTHERN
Louisiana-Lafayette is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 6 games
Ga Southern is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home
Ga Southern is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home


7:30 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. DUKE
North Carolina is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Duke
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Duke's last 5 games
Duke is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home


9:30 PM
UTAH vs. ARIZONA STATE
Utah is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Utah's last 9 games on the road
Arizona State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Arizona State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games


----------------------------

Thurs – Nov. 10


North Carolina at Duke, 7:30 PM ET
North Carolina: 7-19 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game
Duke: 23-10 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63


UL Lafayette at Georgia Southern, 7:30 PM ET
UL Lafayette: 29-15 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Georgia S: 15-6 UNDER against conference opponents


Utah at Arizona State, 9:30 PM ET
Utah: 26-46 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10
Arizona St: 17-6 ATS in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games


-------------------------


Thursday’s games


North Carolina is 4-0 on road this season, with wins at Florida St, Miami; Tar Heels are 5-1 in last six games as a road favorite, 2-0 this year. UNC is 16-3 in its last 19 games with Duke, winning 66-31/45-20 last two years. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six series games. Tar Heels are 8-1 in last nine visits here; three of their last four wins at Duke were by 8 or less points. Blue Devils allowed 836 rushing yards in losing last three games, by 10-3-3 points. Duke is 11-7 in its last 18 games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year. ACC home underdogs are 7-7 this season.


Georgia Southern lost five of last six games, is 1-6 vs spread in last seven; Eagles lost 37-27 at Ole Miss five days ago, outgained 441-401- they’re 12-9 as a favorite since moving up to I-A, 1-3 this season. UL-Lafayette lost at home to Idaho Saturday, tis 4th loss in last five games; they’re 3-5 this year with two losses in OT. Cajuns are 1-2 on road this year with both losses in OT; they’re 4-10 in last 14 games as a home underdog, 0-2 this year. This is first time teams have met in last 20 years. Sun Belt home favorites are 6-9 vs spread in league play.


Arizona State lost four of last five games after a 4-0 start; they allowed 43.7 pts/game in losing last three games, by 24-5-19 points. ASU needs one more win to be bowl eligible; they allowed 734 yards in last game, a 54-35 loss to slumping Oregon. Utah is 8-2 but lost last game at home to Washington; Utes are 3-1 on road, with last three away games decided by 7 or less points. Utah is 3-3 as road favorite the last four years, 1-1 this year. ASU is 7-3-1 in its last 11 games as a home underdog, 3-3 under Graham, 2-0 this year. Pac-12 home teams are 22-14 vs spread this season, 9-5 as home dogs.


------------------------


NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 11


Thursday, November 10


LA-Lafayette @ Georgia Southern


Game 113-114
November 10, 2016 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
71.582
Georgia Southern
74.787
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Southern
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 8 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(+8 1/2); Under


North Carolina @ Duke


Game 111-112
November 10, 2016 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
North Carolina
98.947
Duke
95.554
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 3 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 10 1/2
61
Dunkel Pick:
Duke
(+10 1/2); Over

 

[CNOTES]

North Carolina at Duke
November 8, 2016




With college basketball set to start this week one of the best basketball rivalries will take place on the football field as North Carolina makes the short trip northeast to Durham in Thursday’s ACC Coastal matchup.


These teams have split the past four meetings and while both teams look likely to fall short of last season’s success, this is still an important late season game on both sides. Here is a preview of the Thursday night ESPN game between North Carolina and Duke.

Matchup: North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 10, 7:30 PM ET
Line: North Carolina -10½, Over/Under 60
Last Meeting: 2015, at North Carolina (-7½) 66, Duke 31

North Carolina fell just eight points short of the ACC championship last season and the Tar Heels are on pace for another successful season as they will be favored to win out to reach 10-2. The lone ACC loss came to Virginia Tech in an ugly 34-3 early October result in Chapel Hill. That tiebreaker puts the Hokies in control of the ACC Coastal division unless they lose one of two remaining home games vs. Georgia Tech or Virginia. North Carolina also lost its opening game against Georgia in Atlanta.

David Cutcliffe has brought the Duke program out of the basement with four consecutive bowl seasons the past four years. That run looks poised to end with a 3-6 mark this season and difficult games remaining. This is the home finale in Durham before the Blue Devils go on the road at Pittsburgh and at Miami in the final two weeks. Duke is 0-5 in ACC play but they did pick up a prominent win over Notre Dame and all six losses this season have come by 14 or fewer points. Duke is just 2-3 S/U at home this season with the wins coming vs. FCS NC Central and Army.

Both of these nearby rivals are 6-3 ATS on the season with the Tar Heels riding four straight covers and Duke having won against the spread in each of four games. The yardage statistics paint a clear edge for North Carolina with the Tar Heels posting 6.8 yards per play with huge passing numbers of over 300 yards per game in the air. Junior quarterback Mitch Trubisky has 19 touchdowns against just two interceptions this season while completing over 70 percent of his passes to emerge as a top NFL prospect.

Quarterback play has been an issue for Duke this season as projected starter senior Thomas Sirk was lost for the season in late August. Redshirt freshman Daniel Jones stepped into the starting role with no experience and while he has thrown for over 2,000 yards he has thrown nine interceptions. Duke has lacked the complimentary running game they have had in past seasons gaining only 4.1 yards per rush and Duke has wound up out-gained in seven of eight FBS games this season.

Duke won back-to-back games in this series as an underdog in 2012 and 2013 but the past two seasons North Carolina has won in blowout results including a 66-31 win for the Tar Heels last season with both teams posting over 500 yards. North Carolina won and covered in all four road games this season including winning convincingly twice in the road favorite role. Duke was a home underdog for the first time this season last week hosting Virginia Tech, losing just 24-21 with a comeback effort after falling behind 21-7, holding Virginia Tech below 400 yards in a relatively even game.

Larry Fedora has now turned in five consecutive bowl seasons for North Carolina as a program that underachieved and was caught in constant transition much of the past two decades has some stability looking like one of the top programs on the Coastal side of the ACC with most having forgotten about the cloud of potential NCAA sanctions that has lingered over the program the past two years.

The Tar Heels have lost as favorites in bowl action the past two seasons however and a prominent bowl slot might become available to this team with a strong finish. A New Year’s Six slot is a bit of long shot as Louisville looks destined to be the clear #1 draw out of the ACC behind Clemson who is expected to make the College Football Playoff. A Citrus Bowl or Belk Bowl slot vs. a SEC squad would be an appealing draw for the program or the Tar Heels could return to Orlando and the Russell Athletic Bowl vs. a Big XII squad where they lost to Baylor last season.

For Duke winning out to make the postseason looks like a severe long shot but Jones has proven to be a dynamic dual-threat quarterback that gained valuable experience to lead this team the next few seasons. Duke has marquee non-conference games early next season vs. Northwestern and Baylor as a bounce back season in 2017 will be possible especially considering how close most of this year’s defeats were including impressive close games with Louisville and Virginia Tech. A win over rival North Carolina would certainly provide a boost to the season even with the worst Blue Devils record since 2011.

Historical Trends:


-- North Carolina has won 23 of the last 26 meetings S/U while winning ATS in 12 of the past 19 meetings but Duke is 6-5 ATS in the last 11 meetings though just 3-5 under Cutcliffe.


-- Since Cutcliffe took over in 2008, Duke is 13-12 ATS as a home underdog including an 8-4 run in the last 12 instances, picking up four S/U upsets in those eight+ seasons with the only upset as a double-digit home underdog coming vs. the Tar Heels in 2012.


-- Regardless of venue, Duke is 36-29-2 ATS as an underdog since 2008 including a current 16-5 run going back to early 2013.


-- North Carolina is 6-1 ATS the last seven games as a road favorite with the last S/U loss in that role coming in this matchup in 2012.


-- North Carolina is 11-8-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Fedora though this will be just the fourth instance for the Tar Heels laying double-digits on the road, going 1-2 in those instances.

 

[CNOTES]

Utah faces blitzing test against ASU
November 9, 2016


TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) Utah has put itself on a collision course with Colorado later this month for a possible shot at the Pac-12 South title. The Utes are a game behind the 16th-ranked Buffaloes, so all they need to do is beat two teams with losing conference records to give themselves a shot.


The first one, Thursday night in the desert, won't be easy.


Arizona State has won just two of its four Pac-12 games, but the Sun Devils will be a tough out with all the pressure they will put on the No. 13 Utes defensively.


''They're by far the most heavily blitzed team we've faced all year,'' Utah quarterback Troy Williams said. ''Arizona State really bases their defense upon trying to pressure the quarterback. This will be a good challenge for us.''


Arizona State (5-4, 2-4 Pac-12) does have one of the conference's most aggressive defenses, sending blitzes in from everywhere.


But survive the blitz and opposing teams have found the Sun Devils vulnerable to big plays.


Despite dialing back the blitzes a bit this season, Arizona State is last nationally against the pass for the second straight season, allowing 397.6 yards per game. The Sun Devils have been plagued by injuries, but also poor tackling and missed assignments, leading to 12 scoring plays of 50 yards or longer.


''We have to get better at what we're doing,'' Arizona State coach Todd Graham said. ''There's times when we have played very, very well. We've had too many critical errors, that's the biggest thing.''


The Utes (7-2, 4-2) have not played since losing to No. 4 Washington on Oct. 29, allowing players to get rested and heal up as they attempt to win in Tempe for the first time since 1976.


Utah has numerous players who could return from injuries, including center Lo Falemaka, safety Marcus Williams and receiver Cory Butler-Byrd


''We got some guys rested and some players some down time,'' Utes coach Kyle Whittingham said. ''Injury-wise, hopefully we get a few guys back.''


A few more things to look for when Utah plays at Arizona State on Thursday night:


WILKINS' RETURN?: Arizona State quarterback Manny Wilkins has worked with the first-team offense this week and is expected to return from sho

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:


11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/04/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/05/2016 26-34-0 43.33% -5700
11/08/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/09/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100


TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 65 - 55 - 6 *****


BIG TEN GOY................0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )
MT. WEST GOY..............1 - 0 ( WYOMING ROLLS BIG OVER UTAH ST. )
MAC UNDERDOG GOY.....1 - 0 ( KENT ST. + 21 W.MICHIGAN 37 )


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 262-255-11 50.68% -9250


O/U Picks 100-102-4 49.50% -6100

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF


Thursday, November 10


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAAF Game of the Day: Utah at Arizona State
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


No. 15 Utah is a 6-pt road fave tonight at Arizona State, but the Sun Devils are 5-0 ATS at home this season.


No. 15 Utah Utes at Arizona State (5.5, 56.5)


Utah is part of a three-team battle for the Pac-12 South title and the No. 12 Utes have no margin for error as they enter Thursday's road contest at Arizona State. The Utes are in third place behind Colorado and USC and a loss to the Sun Devils would all but erase their division title hopes.


Utah still has a contest with first-place Colorado on the slate so winning to keep pace or catch the Buffaloes remains paramount but coach Kyle Whittingham has cautioned his players not to look ahead. "You have to take them one at a time," Whittingham said at a press conference. "All the focus is on ASU. It's great to be in the hunt come November and our guys understand that." Arizona State dropped three consecutive games and four of its past five, and expects to have sophomore quarterback Manny Wilkins in the lineup. Wilkins has been plagued with ankle and shoulder injuries and missed two of the last four contests, and missed most of one of the other games.


TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.


LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 5.5-point road favorites and that number has remained all week. The total hit the board at 59.5 and has been dropping all week, as of Thursday morning the current number is 56.5. Check out the complete line history here.


INJURY REPORT:


Utah - LB Sunia Tauteoli (probable, undisclosed), RB Zack Moss (probable, undisclosed), RB Troy McCormick (questionable, undisclosed), RB Jordan Howard (questionable, undisclosed), DB Marcus Williams (questionable, undisclosed), TE Harrison Handley (questionable, undisclosed)


Arizona State - LB Salami Fiso (probable, knee), DB Armand Perry (probable, foot), QB Manny Wilkins (probable, stinger), DB Kareem Orr (probable, leg), DL Koron Crump (probable, knee), OL Sam Jones (questionable, foot), OL A.J. McCollum (questionable, undisclosed), WR Cameron Smith (questionable, undisclosed), DB Dasmond Tautalatasi (questionable, foot), Stephon McCray (questionable, undisclosed), WR Tim White (questionable, ankle), LB Christian Sam (doubtful, ankle)


WEATHER REPORT: It looks like a beautiful night at Sun Devil Stadium. The forecast is calling for clear skies, minimal winds and temperatures in the 70’s.


WHAT SHARPS SAY: On the surface it appears this game looks like a mismatch. But beware of a red faced, embarrassed Arizona State squad here tonight. Especially when you consider the Sun Devils are 11-1 SU versus Utah since 1977, and the Utes are just 1-7 ATS as road favorites since joining the PAC-12 conference.


ABOUT UTAH (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4, O/U): Senior running back Joe Williams (758) has rushed for 683 yards in the past three games since ending his early season retirement and is taking pressure off of junior quarterback Troy Williams, who is completing only 54.6 percent of his passes. Troy Williams passed for 1,888 yards and nine touchdowns against five interceptions and senior wideout Tim Patrick is his favorite target with 29 receptions for 501 yards and five scores. Whittingham said the Utes expect to have the services of standout junior free safety Marcus Williams (three interceptions, two fumbles) after a two-game injury absence to aid a unit led by senior defensive end Hunter Dimick (seven sacks).

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U): The return of Wilkins (1,421 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions) provides a boost to the stagnant passing attack as leading receiver Tim White, a senior, hasn't found the end zone despite team-best totals of 47 receptions and 573 yards. Junior tailback Demario Richard has a team-best 532 rushing yards and is expected back after missing the last game because of injury. The Sun Devils have been horrid on defense while allowing 36.6 points and 513.6 yards per game - 124th among the 128 FBS teams in the nationl - but junior outside linebacker Koron Crump is having a solid season with a team-best nine sacks.


TRENDS:


Utes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-0 in Utes last 4 games on grass.
Over is 8-1 in Sun Devils last 9 games following a bye week.


CONSENSUS: The public is all over the road team with 71 percent of wagers. The over is getting 60 percent of the action.

 

[CNOTES]

Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 11 college football games


The public will want to back Penn State after a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their past four games.


Spread to bet now:


UNLV (+7.5) vs. Wyoming


This line has dropped from +8 to +7.5, so play it now before it hits the key number of +7. Wyoming has taken advantage of a strong home field with altitude this season, going 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), however the Cowboys are just 2-2 SU (1-2 ATS) on the road this year. They have a weak defense that is permitting 32.5 points per game and 6.4 yards per play away from home.


UNLV has been a better team at home this season, going 2-2 SU, compared to 1-4 SU on the road. The Runnin' Rebels have been a strong offensive team at home this year, averaging 40.2 points per game on 7.4 yards per play. They have out-rushed their opponents 296-133 rushing yards (6.6-3.5 yards per rush) on their home field.


Spread to wait on:


Indiana (+7) vs. Penn State


This line is currently +6.5 to +7 in most locations and might rise higher to +7.5 by this weekend. The public will want to back Penn State after a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four games. However, the Nittany Lions are due for a letdown after big wins versus Ohio State and Iowa in their past three games. Penn State is just 1-2 SU on the road this season where they have allowed 38.3 points per game.


Indiana enters this game off back-to-back wins with solid offensive performances, scoring 75 points combined on 1,217 total yards. The Hoosiers have played better than their overall 27.1 points per game offensive number indicates as they have gained 6.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.7 yppl). Indiana has been particularly strong throwing the ball, averaging 8.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 7.1 ypp).


Total to watch:


California at Washington State (83.5)


California remains a horrible defensive team this season, going 7-2 to the Over, while allowing 44.4 points on 528 total yards per game (versus opponents that average just 34.1 ppg and 439 yards). Those numbers have been consistently bad in conference games as California has allowed 46.8 points and 540 yards per game. The Golden Bears have allowed 47, 49, 45, and 66 points in their past four games.


Washington State has a potent offense that is averaging 43.0 points on 502 total yards per game this season (versus opponents that allow just 32.3 ppg and 446 yards). The Cougars have been even stronger at home where they are 4-1 SU and averaging 49.0 points on 529 total yards per game. Washington State does have a decent defense this year which is allowing just 24.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 30.0 ppg and 6.2 yppl). The question is if the Cougars can slow down a strong California offense that is averaging 39.7 points on 517 total yards per game this season (versus opponents that allow just 29.0 ppg and 417 yards).

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Pac-12 Action
November 8, 2016



Thursday College Football Betting Preview
Utah Utes vs. Arizona State Sun Devils


Sportsbook.ag Odds: Utah (-5.5); Total set at 58.5


The Pac-12 may not be getting much respect from the playoff selection committee in recent days – we will see if Washington gets into that #4 spot tonight – and part of that is because of the logjam atop the South division.


Colorado, USC and Utah will all be fighting one another down to the wire for the right to play in that conference Championship game, and this week it's Utah who hits the field first as they are in Arizona State.


The Sun Devils are trying to get to that critical six-win mark to become Bowl eligible themselves this year and they have no problem playing spoiler to Utah's division championship hopes.


Utah got their first win in five tries since joining the Pac-12 Conference vs Arizona State a season ago as the 34-18 victory was one of their better performances on the year.


The Utes have much higher hopes this season and need to rebound off a seven-point loss to undefeated Washington at the end of October. Utah was in that game with the Huskies all the way until the end as it was tied late in the 4th quarter before a 58-yard punt return TD by Washington broke the deadlock and held up as the winning score.


It was a solid ATS victory for Utah though, who've have covered the number in three of their last four, but things haven't come easy for them on the road in conference play. Utah is 2-1 SU on the road against Pac-12 rivals, but just 1-2 ATS in those games, and 0-2 ATS when laying points.


It's not like those two ATS losses came to quality opponents either as California - a 4-5 SU team – beat the Utes outright, and 2-7 SU Oregon State lost 19-14 to Utah when the Utes were laying 7.5 points.


There is no question that Arizona State is the best of the bunch in that regard and Utah better tighten things up away from home this week if they want a shot at the Pac-12 South crown.


ASU has been off since late October as well, and they've likely used that extra time off to tighten up some defensive deficiencies that have plagued them the past few weeks. Arizona State has given up 54, 37, and 40 points in their past three games – all losses – and that kind of play isn't going to give them a chance here.


Thankfully, the program has a history of keeping Utah's offense in check (aside from last year) as the Utes never scored more than 19 points against the Sun Devils in the four conference meetings prior to a season ago.


Three of the five meetings between these two in Pac-12 play have cashed 'under' tickets, and with extra rest on both sides this week, total bettors could see a similar result.


However, grabbing the points with the home dog in this spot is the better betting play this week because of Utah's struggles on the road against sub-par teams.


This is Arizona State's final home game of the season and the entire side should play inspired football. The Sun Devils are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight at home and have been a solid team for bettors all year with a 9-4 ATS run going over their past 13 games.


ASU is also 4-1 ATS when coming off a loss and typically have no problems playing up to the level of their competition with a 7-1 ATS run going against winning teams.


Throw in the fact that it's Senior Day at ASU, a sixth win would make them Bowl eligible, and Utah's 1-4 ATS run when coming off a loss and this game should come right down to the wire.


Best Bet: Take Arizona State +5.5

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ULL at GASO 07:30 PM


GASO -7.5 *****


U 45.5


UNC at DUKE 07:30 PM


DUKE +11.5 *****


O 65.0


UTAH at ASU 09:30 PM


ASU +5.0*****


U 54.5

 

[CNOTES]

Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette beat Georgia Southern 33-26
November 10, 2016


STATESBORO, Ga. (AP) Anthony Jennings passed for 210 yards and ran for 96 yards and a touchdown to help Louisiana-Lafayette beat Georgia Southern 33-26 on Thursday night.


Jennings converted a pair of third downs - a 21-yard keeper and a 9-yard pass to Al Riles - for the Ragin' Cajuns (4-5, 3-3 Sun Belt) to run out the clock on the final drive.


Louisiana-Lafayette led 31-13 in the middle of the third after Riles, starting from a Wildcat formation, threw a 48-yard TD pass to Keenan Barnes.


Georgia Southern (4-6, 3-3) cut it to 31-19 on L.A. Ramsby's 2-yard TD run. But Louisiana-Lafayette's Otha Peters intercepted and returned Seth Shuman's pass 100 yards to convert the extra 2 points for the Cajuns. Ramsby scored again to cap the scoring with 4:23 left after Ironhead Gallon returned Darrius Sapp's blocked punt 66 yards.


BJ Johnson III had nine catches for 127 yards for the Eagles.


------------------------------


Duke upsets UNC as home 'dogs
November 10, 2016


DURHAM, N.C. (AP) Duke waited until it was time to play No. 15 North Carolina to finally cut out all the mistakes that kept haunting the Blue Devils in close losses.


They ran the ball with a physical edge and tightened defensively, then ended their Senior Night by sprinting across the field as time expired to reclaim a lost rivalry trophy.


Daniel Jones ran for two scores and threw for another to help the Blue Devils upset the Tar Heels 28-27 on Thursday night to secure their first Atlantic Coast Conference win.


Duke (4-6, 1-5 ACC) was flirting with its first winless league record since 2007 after a tight loss at No. 5 Louisville and a pair of three-point losses to Georgia Tech and No. 18 Virginia Tech.


''I laid all of that out there: here's the path we've been on, here's how you correct it,'' Duke coach David Cutcliffe said. ''They're smart. They listen, they believe. And that's huge that they keep buying into each other, the loyalty. So that joy, that's huge.''


Jones, a redshirt freshman, ran for 94 yards as part of a ground game that kept moving the chains against the Tar Heels (7-3, 5-2, No. 17 CFP). Shaun Wilson ran for a game-high 107 yards and a score of his own, Duke finished with 227 yards rushing and converted 10 of 17 third-down chances.


''Our offensive line was doing a tremendous job all game,'' Jones said, ''firing off the ball and being physical and creating that physicality that we want as a team.''


That formula was on display at the end, as Duke took more than 6 1/2 minutes off the clock with a long drive from its own 1 before punting back to UNC. The Blue Devils then came up with a final stop, with Alonzo Saxton II picking off Mitch Trubisky near midfield with 1:02 left on a night that ended with Duke players sprinting across the field to re-claim the Victory Bell presented to the winner of the long-running rivalry.


More surprisingly, Duke's defense gradually locked down the Tar Heels' high-scoring offense, which finished with just 31 yards in the final 15 minutes.


''Every time we would make a play, we would shoot ourselves in the foot on the next one or something would happen,'' Tar Heels coach Larry Fedora said. ''There was no consistency whatsoever.''


THE TAKEAWAY


UNC: The Tar Heels likely saw any chance of repeating as the league's Coastal Division champion die with this loss considering they had to keep winning and hope for the Hokies to lose once. But there was a familiar problem with being physical enough to stop the run, on top of the surprising offensive struggles after halftime.


''We missed a big opportunity,'' Trubisky said.


DUKE: After a couple of close losses, Duke showed it had enough fortitude to bounce back and play a clean game even as it flirted with the program's first winless ACC record since 2007. Notable in Thursday's performance: no turnovers for the second straight week.

POLL IMPLICATIONS


North Carolina will almost certainly slide in the AP Top 25 after this one. The question is whether the Tar Heels - who have been in and out of the poll this season - might fall all the way out again after losing to a winless ACC team with a curiously shaky performance.

STREAK SNAPPED


The Tar Heels came into this game with nine straight wins on an opponent's home field, tied with No. 3 Clemson for third longest in the nation behind No. 1 Alabama (11) and No. 9 Oklahoma (10).

BLOWN LEAD


North Carolina got off to a sprint of a start, jumping to a 14-0 first-quarter lead behind a sharp Trubisky. The junior completed 12 of his first 15 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns, but threw for just 97 yards on 12-for-18 passing with two interceptions from there. UNC managed only two second-half field goals.

UP NEXT


UNC: The Tar Heels step out of conference play to take on The Citadel. They're 4-0 in that series with the last meeting coming in 2009.


DUKE: The Blue Devils play at Pittsburgh, the first of two straight division road games to close the regular season.


------------------------------


No. 13 Utah rolls to 49-26 win over Arizona State
November 10, 2016

TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) Joe Williams ran for 181 yards and two touchdowns, and No. 13 Utah's defense had 11 sacks in a 49-26 victory over Arizona State on Thursday night.


Utah (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12, No. 15 CFP) overcame a slow start with a series of spectacular plays against the FBS' worst passing defense to end an eight-game losing streak in Tempe.


Troy Williams threw for 296 yards and connected with Raelon Singleton on three of his four touchdown passes. Singleton finished with 116 yards on four catches to help the Utes stay within reach of No. 16 Colorado in the Pac-12 South.


Utah was concerned about Arizona State's attacking defense, but the Utes were the ones putting on all the pressure. Hunter Dimick sacked Manny Wilkins five times and the Utes had 22 tackles for loss.


Wilkins threw for 309 yards and a touchdown after missing last week's game against Oregon, but also threw two interceptions. The last one, a 43-yard pick-6 by Chase Hansen in the fourth quarter, sealed Utah's victory


Arizona State (5-4, 2-4) has lost five of six since opening 4-0.

THE TAKEAWAY


Utah's defense was at its harassing best and its offense had a nice balance, setting the Utes up nicely for the season's final two games.


Arizona State got a spark from Wilkins' return, but couldn't protect him or stop giving up big plays on defense. The Sun Devils need to win one of their final two games to become bowl eligible.

UP NEXT


Utah hosts Oregon next Saturday before playing at No. 16 Colorado in a potential showdown for the Pac-12 South title.


Arizona State hosts No. 4 Washington next Saturday before playing at rival Arizona in its regular-season finale.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s six-pack

My six favorite Bill Murray movies:


6) Quick Change– Saw this on my first date with my future ex-wife.


5) St Vincent– Any time a guy takes a little kid he is babysitting to the racetrack, the movie has a chance.


4) Caddyshack– This was more of a Rodney/Chevy Chase movie.


3) Stripes– The late Harold Rams should’ve acted in more movies.


2) Meatballs– Morty, the guy who ran the summer camp, later wound up as a judge on Law and Order.


1) Lost in Translation– Underrated movie with Scarlett Johansson.


Friday’s List of 13: Bottom 5, Top 8 in the NFL


32) Browns— Cleveland is 0-10, but not the only team that has trailed all its games in 4th quarter. 5-4 Lions have trailed all nine of their games in 4th quarter- they easily could be 0-9, or 8-1.


31) 49ers— Allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their last seven games, which doesn’t happen very often.


30) Jaguars— Ran ball better last week than they have all season but teams that turn ball over four times almost never win. Host a Houston team this week that is 0-3 on the road.


29) Bears— They should start playing better with Cutler back at QB and Bucs-Titans-49ers on schedule in next month. For what it is worth, Jay Cutler grew up in a town called Santa Claus, IN; wonder what the high school’s mascot is?


28) Rams— I let this slide Monday because there were so many other things to be annoyed about, but Rams’ only TD against the Panthers came on a 4th-and-goal play from the 10 in last 0:40 when LA trailed 13-3. Going for it on 4th-and-goal from the 10, when you had an easy FG and you needed 10 points, was coaching malpractice.


Just because the play worked doesn’t make it a good decision; in a lot of ways, this ticked me off more than losing the damn game.


8) Broncos— Wade Phillips feels better, may be back on sidelines for this week’s game; if his defense doesn’t create opportunities for the Denver offense, it’ll be a long second half of the season— Broncos’ offense isn’t very good.


7) Giants— One of three teams (Cards, Jags) that haven’t scored a point yet on their first drive of the game. Wentz threw INTs on Eagles’ first two drives, so Giants got TDs on drives of 31-30 yards on their 2nd/3rd drives of the game, but when the coach is also the playcaller, shouldn’t they do better on their first drive?


6) Seahawks— Long trip east to Foxboro on a short week Sunday nite; they play Patriots for first time since their Super Bowl loss to New England. Seahawks’ rushing attempts in last three games: 19-17-12- they need more balance on offense. They also need a more mobile Wilson.


5) Chiefs— Have NFL’s best record (17-3) in their last 20 games, but only one of those wins was a playoff game. Alex Smith is back at QB this week, which should improve their play in red zone.


4) Falcons— 6-3 with bye week in Week 11, so they should be well-rested for stretch run, with little bit of a soft schedule, other than the KC game. Will Kyle Shanahan be a head coach elsewhere in ’17?


3) Raiders— Last time they were in the playoffs was 2002, when they lost Super Bowl to Tampa Bay. They’ll be there this year. First game after their bye is against the Texans on a Monday night in Mexico City.


2) Cowboys— If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it; at 7-1, no reason for Dallas to change QBs; they seem to be set there for the next 10-12 years. Interesting game in Pittsburgh this week, against the banged-up Steelers.


1— Patriots— After playing Seattle this week, their next three games are against 49ers-Jets-Rams; they’ll have to guard against boredom, playing those three stiffs in a row.


I’m not kidding; closest game they’ve had since Brady came back is 11 points- you need to play in close games during season to tighten up for the playoffs, when games will be close.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday,November 11

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BOSTON COLLEGE (4 - 5) at FLORIDA ST (6 - 3) - 11/11/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 2-0 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday,November 11


7:30 PM
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. FLORIDA STATE
Boston College is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston College's last 6 games when playing Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 6 games when playing Boston College
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 5 games


-------------------------------


Fri – Nov. 11


Boston College at Florida State, 7:30 PM ET
Boston College: 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Florida St: 1-8 ATS off a road win


------------------------------




Friday’s game


Four of last five Florida State games were decided by 4 or less points; Seminoles are 2-4 vs spread as a favorite this year, 0-2 at home- they’re 6-10-1 in last 17 games as a home favorite, and lost SU in two of last three home games, to UNC/Clemson. FSU won its last six games vs Boston College (3-3 vs spread), winning last three by 14-3-14 points. Eagles lost three of last four games, losing 52-7 to Louisville (38-0 at half), 56-10 to Clemson (21-3 at half). BC is 6-1-1 in is last eight games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’re 12-10-1 as an underdog under Addazio. ACC home favorites are 10-13 vs spread.


-------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

Boston College at FSU
November 9, 2016




Florida State isn’t in the mix for an ACC Championship or a berth in the College Football Playoff, but it certainly wants to finish strong in what has been a disappointing campaign to date. The Seminoles will look to avoid a fourth loss when they host Boston College on Friday night at Doak Campbell Stadium.


As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had FSU installed as a 21-point favorite with a total of 48.5 points. Gamblers could take the Eagles on the money line for a sweet +850 payout (risk $100 to win $850).


FSU (6-3 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) has limped to a 2-2 SU record and a 1-2 ATS mark at home this year. This is just the second time the Seminoles have lost twice at home in the same season since Jimbo Fisher took over in 2010. They saw a 22-game home winning streak snapped in Week 5 when North Carolina came to Tallahassee and emerged with a 37-35 win thanks to a walk-off field goal from 54 yards out.


Since then, Fisher’s seventh team at FSU has once again gone down at home, where Clemson captured a 37-34 victory two weeks ago. Despite the setback, FSU took the cash as a 4.5-point home underdog. Dalvin Cook enjoyed a monster night against the Tigers, rushing for 169 yards and four touchdowns on just 19 attempts.


Cook’s 70-yard TD scamper put his team in front 28-20 going into the final stanza. However, Clemson answered with an early fourth-quarter TD to trim the deficit to two, and then it took a 29-28 advantage on a 46-yard Greg Huegel field goal with 5:25 remaining. Cook’s eight-yard TD run with 3:23 left staked FSU to a 34-29 lead after the two-point conversion failed.


But the defense couldn’t close the deal. Deshaun Watson found Jordan Leggett with a 34-yard scoring strike at the 2:06 mark and the Clemson defense secured the victory with a subsequent stop.


In bounce-back mode last week at North Carolina State, FSU trailed for most of the game but was able to pull out a 24-20 victory. The Wolfpack covered the number as a 6.5-point home ‘dog, while the 44 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 58-point tally.


Cook was limited to 65 rushing yards and one TD on 18 carries, but freshman QB Deondre Francois came though in the clutch. Francois, who completed 22-of-39 passes for 330 yards and one TD without an interception, found Travis Rudolph for a 19-yard TD pass with 3:09 left to lift his team to victory. Nyqwan Murray had nine receptions for 153 yards, but the ‘Noles were fortunate to win after losing the yardage battle by a 463-393 margin.


Cook has rushed for 1,134 yards to move into second place on the school’s all-time rushing list behind only Warrick Dunn. Cook needs only 127 rushing yards to surpass Dunn’s total of 3,959 yards. He has rushed for 12 TDs while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Cook also has 25 receptions for 388 yards and one TD.


Francois has established himself as the QB of the present and future. He has connected on 60.0 percent of his passes for 2,492 yards with a 12/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Francois has also rushed for three TDs.


His favorite target is Rudolph, who has 38 catches for 599 yards and four TDs. Jesus ‘Bobo’ Wilson is FSU’s second-leading receiver with 30 grabs for 390 yards and one TD, but the senior wideout was injured in a 17-6 home win over Wake Forest on Oct. 15. The foot injury is expected to keep him out for the rest of the season.


FSU owns a 23-18-1 spread record in 42 games as a home favorite on Fisher’s watch. Meanwhile, Boston College has compiled a 7-3-1 ATS mark in 11 games as a road underdog during Steve Addazio’s four-year tenure.


FSU is fielding its worst defense since 2009 when it allowed 30.0 points per game in Bobby Bowden’s last year at the helm. Through nine games, the Seminoles are ranked No. 73 in the nation in scoring defense (28.8 PPG). They are No. 95 out of 128 FBS teams in pass defense.


The secondary has greatly missed the presence of sophomore safety Derwin James, who tore his meniscus in Week 2 and hasn’t played since then. James had already recorded 11 tackles and one interception before going down. Also, starting senior safety Nate Andrews has been out since early October due to pectoral injury. Andrews had produced 18 tackles and one interception through four games.


The FSU defense is led by senior DE DeMarcus Walker, who has 51 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles, three QB hurries, one blocked kick and two passes broken up.


Boston College (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) went bowling in its first two seasons under Addazio, only to have all sorts of QB injuries and limp to a 3-9 record in 2015. BC lost five one-possession games by 14 combined points last year, wasting a season in which its defense held foes to a meager 15.3 PPG.


The defense hasn’t been as stout this year, but the stop unit has still played well. The Eagles are ranked No. 14 in the country in total defense and eighth against the run, but they remain horrendous on the other side of the ball. They are No. 126 of 128 FBS teams in total offense and No. 122 in scoring (19.4 PPG).


BC has wins at UMass (26-7), vs. Wagner (42-10), vs. Buffalo (35-3) and at N.C. State (21-14). The Eagles were destroyed at Virginia Tech (49-0), vs. Clemson (56-10) and vs. Louisville last weekend (52-7). They’ve also dropped a pair of one-possession games vs. Georgia Tech (17-14 in Dublin, Ireland) and vs. Syracuse (28-20).


U of L raced out to a 38-0 halftime lead at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill last Saturday. The Cardinals easily took the money as 24.5-point road ‘chalk,’ while the 59 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 52-point tally on Lamar Jackson’s third rushing TD with 1:57 remaining in the third quarter.


Jackson produced video-game numbers against the BC defense. The Heisman Trophy favorite threw for 231 yards and four TDs. Jackson also had 185 rushing yards on only 15 totes.


BC senior QB Patrick Towles, a grad transfer from Kentucky, completed 13-of-21 passes for 147 yards with one TD and one interception. For the season, Towles has completed just 51.0 percent of his passes for 1,293 yards with an 8/6 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 250 yards and four TDs.


The ground game has been basically non-existent for the Eagles. Jon Hilliman has rushed for a team-best 432 yards and five TDs, but he’s averaging a pedestrian 3.3 YPC. His 102-yard effort in the opener against Georgia Tech has been the lone time he’s surpassed 74 rushing yards versus an ACC foe.


Since the ‘over’ cashed in its first three games, FSU has seen the ‘under’ hit at a 4-1 clip in its last five contests. The ‘under’ is 2-1 for the ‘Noles in their three lined home outings. They have seen their games average combined scores of 62.3 PPG.


The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for BC, 2-1 in its three true road assignments. The Eagles have seen their games average combined scores of 45.7 PPG.


Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- FSU true freshman DE Brian Burns has had an excellent debut season, but he’s suspended for the first half against BC due to a targeting penalty in the second half of last week’s win in Raleigh. Burns has recorded 12 tackles, five TFL’s, four sacks, one forced fumble and one QB hurry.


-- Georgia Tech has suspended RB Dedrick Mills for the next two games. Mills has rushed for 578 yards and 11 TDs this year. He is eligible to return for the regular-season finale at Georgia.


-- Sportsbook.ag has updated its Games of the Year spreads. These contests include Louisville -10.5 at Houston, Stanford -6.5 at California, Texas -3 vs. TCU, Washington -7.5 at Washington St., FSU -7 vs. Florida, Ohio St. -4.5 vs. Michigan, Alabama -14 vs. Auburn, USC -17 vs. Notre Dame, Oklahoma -11 vs. Oklahoma State and Navy -7 vs. Army.


-- Alabama’s stock apparently took a hit in its 10-0 win over LSU. I say that because the oddsmaker at Sportsbook.ag have adjusted their lines for potential championship matchups. The Crimson Tide was a double-digit ‘chalk’ to every team except Michigan two weeks ago. At that time, Alabama was a 9.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. the Wolverines. Now the Tide is favored by 7.5 vs. Ohio State, 10 vs. Michigan, 8 vs. Clemson, 10 vs. Washington and 7.5 vs. Louisville.


-- Dabo Swinney announced Wednesday that four underclassmen are going pro after this year and will get to participate in Senior Day against South Carolina at Death Valley on Nov. 26. Those players include Watson, Wayne Gallman, Mike Williams and Artavis Scott.


-- Though Middle Tennessee is holding out hope that he can return for a bowl game, sophomore quarterback Brent Stockstill will miss at least the last three regular-season games after breaking his collarbone in a 45-25 home loss UTSA in Week 10. Stockstill, the C-USA Freshman of the Year and a third-team All C-USA selection as a freshman in 2015, threw for 2,801 yards with a 27/5 TD-INT ratio in the Blue Raiders’ first nine games. The head coach’s son has a 57/14 TD-INT ratio in his first two seasons.

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:


11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/04/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/05/2016 26-34-0 43.33% -5700
11/08/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/09/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/10/2016 1-5-0 16.67% -2250


TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 66 - 57 - 6 *****


BIG TEN GOY................0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )
MT. WEST GOY..............1 - 0 ( WYOMING ROLLS BIG OVER UTAH ST. )
MAC UNDERDOG GOY.....1 - 0 ( KENT ST. + 21 W.MICHIGAN 37 )


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 263-257-11 50.58% -9850


O/U Picks 100-105-4 48.78% -7750