NCAAF opening line report: Alabama massive faves over scrappy Mississippi State
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 35-28 home win over Texas A&M as a 10-point ‘dog.
The college football season plows into Week 11 with some key matchups as the BCS standings and the College Football Playoff possibilities continue taking shape. We talk about opening lines on a few games with John Lester, senior lines manager for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes (+17.5)
Michigan hasn’t broken too much of a sweat all season, and certainly didn’t need to worry much during Week 10. The Wolverines (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) hammered Maryland 59-3 Saturday as a 29.5-point home favorite, stemming a 1-3 ATS in the process.
Iowa (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) looks more like Michigan’s next victim than the next opponent. The Hawkeyes had a bye week to prepare for Penn State, but still got shellacked 41-14 as a 6.5-point road underdog Saturday. But Lester warned against discounting the Hawkeyes.
“This may not be the week, but it seems like Kirk Ferentz and his kids pull off a big upset every year,” Lester said. “Everybody is going to give the undefeateds their best shots from here on out, so Michigan must be focused here. The Wolverines are facing another three-score spread, and they’ve been Jekyll-and-Hyde covering those.”
This will be Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh’s first meeting with Iowa, as the two schools last squared off in the 2013 season, a 24-21 Iowa victory in which the Wolverines cashed as a 6-point road pup.
No. 25 Baylor Bears at No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (-14)
Two weeks ago. Baylor was undefeated, ranked sixth and thoroughly in the hunt for a CFP playoff berth. Not anymore. After tumbling at Texas 35-34 laying 4 points in Week 9, the Bears (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS) got blasted Saturday by Texas Christian, losing 62-22 as a 7-point home chalk.
Conversely, Oklahoma has won six in a row after a bump 1-2 start. The Sooners (7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS) held off Iowa State last Thursday 34-24, falling well short as a 21-point fave. Oklahoma beat Baylor 44-34 catching 1.5 points on the road last year, ending a 4-0 ATS surge by the Bears in this rivalry (3-1 SU).
“We saw Baylor unravel at the seams last weekend, and this could be a tough one to get up for now that the losing skid is rolling,” Lester said. “That said, Oklahoma has been winning, but it hasn’t looked unbeatable against some suspect competition of late.”
Southern California Trojans at No. 4 Washington Huskies (-8)
Washington aims to keep its perfect record, along with its Pac-12 and CFP hopes, rolling along in Week 11. The Huskies (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) boatraced California 66-27 Saturday night giving 19 points on the road.
Southern Cal has seemingly righted its ship after a rocky 1-3 SU and ATS start. The Trojans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) have peeled off five consecutive victories (4-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 45-20 rout of Oregon as a hefty 17-point home chalk.
Last year, Washington edged USC 17-12, falling well short as a 17-point road favorite.
“USC is going to have to play a perfect game to pull off the upset in Washington,” Lester said. “The BCS committee isn’t giving the Huskies much respect, but from what we’ve see, they are on an even playing field with a team like Michigan. The Trojans have been rolling, but Washington is a competitive and complete team, so the big spread is warranted.”
Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-29)
Alabama hasn’t lost a game since Sept. 19, 2015, a stretch in which it has gone 21-0 SU and 14-7 ATS. On Saturday night, the Crimson Tide got one of their toughest tests of that streak, as they were locked in a 0-0 tie at Louisiana State into the fourth quarter. But ‘Bama (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) came away with a 10-0 win and cover as a 7-point favorite.
A couple of weeks ago, Mississippi State was 2-5 SU and looked like it would be little more than a footnote for Alabama. That might still be the case, but the Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 35-28 home win over Texas A&M as a 10-point ‘dog.
“Both teams are coming off emotionally draining wins, but it’s safe to say the Tide are better equipped to regroup,” Lester said. “Last week was the first in a while that we didn’t see heavy Alabama action, but the underdog bettors didn’t collect, so we don’t expect a lot of favorite fading again this week, despite the massive spread.”
The Tide had little trouble with the Bulldogs last year, rolling 31-6 as a 7-point road chalk.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 35-28 home win over Texas A&M as a 10-point ‘dog.
The college football season plows into Week 11 with some key matchups as the BCS standings and the College Football Playoff possibilities continue taking shape. We talk about opening lines on a few games with John Lester, senior lines manager for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes (+17.5)
Michigan hasn’t broken too much of a sweat all season, and certainly didn’t need to worry much during Week 10. The Wolverines (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) hammered Maryland 59-3 Saturday as a 29.5-point home favorite, stemming a 1-3 ATS in the process.
Iowa (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) looks more like Michigan’s next victim than the next opponent. The Hawkeyes had a bye week to prepare for Penn State, but still got shellacked 41-14 as a 6.5-point road underdog Saturday. But Lester warned against discounting the Hawkeyes.
“This may not be the week, but it seems like Kirk Ferentz and his kids pull off a big upset every year,” Lester said. “Everybody is going to give the undefeateds their best shots from here on out, so Michigan must be focused here. The Wolverines are facing another three-score spread, and they’ve been Jekyll-and-Hyde covering those.”
This will be Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh’s first meeting with Iowa, as the two schools last squared off in the 2013 season, a 24-21 Iowa victory in which the Wolverines cashed as a 6-point road pup.
No. 25 Baylor Bears at No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (-14)
Two weeks ago. Baylor was undefeated, ranked sixth and thoroughly in the hunt for a CFP playoff berth. Not anymore. After tumbling at Texas 35-34 laying 4 points in Week 9, the Bears (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS) got blasted Saturday by Texas Christian, losing 62-22 as a 7-point home chalk.
Conversely, Oklahoma has won six in a row after a bump 1-2 start. The Sooners (7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS) held off Iowa State last Thursday 34-24, falling well short as a 21-point fave. Oklahoma beat Baylor 44-34 catching 1.5 points on the road last year, ending a 4-0 ATS surge by the Bears in this rivalry (3-1 SU).
“We saw Baylor unravel at the seams last weekend, and this could be a tough one to get up for now that the losing skid is rolling,” Lester said. “That said, Oklahoma has been winning, but it hasn’t looked unbeatable against some suspect competition of late.”
Southern California Trojans at No. 4 Washington Huskies (-8)
Washington aims to keep its perfect record, along with its Pac-12 and CFP hopes, rolling along in Week 11. The Huskies (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) boatraced California 66-27 Saturday night giving 19 points on the road.
Southern Cal has seemingly righted its ship after a rocky 1-3 SU and ATS start. The Trojans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) have peeled off five consecutive victories (4-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 45-20 rout of Oregon as a hefty 17-point home chalk.
Last year, Washington edged USC 17-12, falling well short as a 17-point road favorite.
“USC is going to have to play a perfect game to pull off the upset in Washington,” Lester said. “The BCS committee isn’t giving the Huskies much respect, but from what we’ve see, they are on an even playing field with a team like Michigan. The Trojans have been rolling, but Washington is a competitive and complete team, so the big spread is warranted.”
Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-29)
Alabama hasn’t lost a game since Sept. 19, 2015, a stretch in which it has gone 21-0 SU and 14-7 ATS. On Saturday night, the Crimson Tide got one of their toughest tests of that streak, as they were locked in a 0-0 tie at Louisiana State into the fourth quarter. But ‘Bama (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) came away with a 10-0 win and cover as a 7-point favorite.
A couple of weeks ago, Mississippi State was 2-5 SU and looked like it would be little more than a footnote for Alabama. That might still be the case, but the Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 35-28 home win over Texas A&M as a 10-point ‘dog.
“Both teams are coming off emotionally draining wins, but it’s safe to say the Tide are better equipped to regroup,” Lester said. “Last week was the first in a while that we didn’t see heavy Alabama action, but the underdog bettors didn’t collect, so we don’t expect a lot of favorite fading again this week, despite the massive spread.”
The Tide had little trouble with the Bulldogs last year, rolling 31-6 as a 7-point road chalk.
