Cnotes 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

[CNOTES]

Hokies visit Pittsburgh
October 25, 2016


College Football Week 9 Thursday Night Preview
Virginia Tech (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS)


We've got a huge game in the ACC Coastal division on Thursday as two programs are looking to catch North Carolina in the wide open division.


Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh enter this Thursday game with identical 5-2 SU records, but both only have one loss in conference play and a second this week would be devastating to their division championship hopes. It's the second straight week we get Virginia Tech in primetime on a Thursday night, but after they looked so good at home in dismantling Miami last week, this week they are out on the road in hostile territory.


The last time Virginia Tech were the visitors it was an ugly 31-17 loss at Syracuse as 23-point favorites and Hokies fans are hoping that the good version of this Tech team shows up in a much more critical game this week.


Pitt enters this contest having won three in a row (1-2 ATS) thanks to a dramatic shift in culture for the school. The Panthers were always thought of as a defensive-first, pound the ball type of program, but they've recruited plenty of offensive playmakers the past few years and it's paying off now. Pitt has scored at least 36 points in every game since their opener and are beating opponents with this offensive attack. Predictably, their defense has taken a hit and has allowed 31+ in five of their last six, but with the way the offense can put up points, Pitt never feels like they are out of a game anymore.


Yet, it's that Pitt defense that has to be concerning to backers, especially after a national audience saw Virginia Tech look so good against Miami last week. Giving up 30+ a week is great when you are expected to win as a favorite, but that methodology doesn't have the same results when that team is an underdog. Pittsburgh's defense is going to have to step up their play this week if they are going to cover the number or win outright and that's a troubling prospect to some.


Sportsbook.ag Odds: Virginia Tech (-4.5)


I am not in that group though as head coach Pat Narduzzi comes from a strong defensive background from his time as Michigan State's defensive coordinator and he'll have his guys ready for the bright lights. Pittsburgh's defense isn't going to come close to becoming one of the country's best defenses overnight, but if they can limit long drives to field goal attempts and perhaps even take one score off the board it will be a big improvement.


Narduzzi knows he's got the offense to give him a chance each week, and it's likely he's spent a lot of his prep time this week in the defensive meeting rooms getting his guys prepared to slow down Virginia Tech's offense. Given Narduzzi's pedigree, and the fact that Virginia Tech had tremendous struggles on the road last time, Pittsburgh is a very live dog in this spot this week.


While some may argue that Tech's struggles on the road vs. Syracuse were in part because they were looking ahead to their big home game vs. Miami – a rival they hadn't beaten for awhile – this is not a good spot for them to bounce back much. They are just 4-10 ATS after winning by 20+ points in their last 14 opportunities, and 2-8 ATS after allowing 280+ yards through the air. Virginia Tech is also entering a house of horrors for the school as they are 0-6 ATS in their last six trips to Pittsburgh, and 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Panthers overall.


Pittsburgh is used to being the underdog in this rivalry and has won three of the four games outright as dogs since these two schools became conference rivals again in 2012. This week's game could very well end up with an identical result for the Panthers as they'll have a chance to win this game late.


Best Bet: Take Pittsburgh +4.5

 

[CNOTES]

Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh
October 25, 2016


Virginia Tech was a big winner in ACC action last Thursday and the Hokies will hope to do it again this week on the road in a second straight primetime Coastal Division clash. Upstart Pittsburgh has impressed as the second highest scoring team in the ACC and the Panthers have won the past two meetings in this series.


Here is a look at the ESPN matchup Thursday night to kick off the final college football weekend in October.


Match-up: Virginia Tech Hokies at Pittsburgh Panthers
Venue: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Time/TV: Thursday, Oct. 27, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Virginia Tech -4½, Over/Under 57
Last Meeting: 2015, Pittsburgh (+3½) 17, at Virginia Tech 13


Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh are both 5-2 for successful starts to the season. The Hokies have an extra ACC win at this point but with just one conference loss both teams are serious threats in the Coastal Division race with the winner of this game certainly gaining a favorable position with Virginia Tech clearly in the driver’s seat if they win this game.


2015 Coastal champion North Carolina is 4-1 in league play with a one-point win over Pittsburgh but a 34-3 loss to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels will be expected to win out as Virginia Tech can’t afford to fall a game behind even though the Hokies will also be expected to win the remaining ACC games.


Pittsburgh can stay on pace with the division leader for the moment with a win this week but the Panthers have a much tougher path to the title, already losing the tiebreaker with North Carolina and with road games at Miami and at Clemson in November. The Panthers actually could realistically slip to 5-5 and be on the bowl bubble heading to home games with Duke and Syracuse to close the season as the upcoming schedule is difficult.


Pittsburgh has won the past two meetings in this series with a 21-16 home win in 2015 as a very slight home favorite and a 17-13 win as a slight underdog in Blacksburg last season. The Panthers were off last week with nearly two weeks to prepare for this matchup looking to extend a three-game winning streak.


Panthers games have frequently featured exciting finishes this season as Pittsburgh has two three-point wins and both losses came in high-scoring back-and-forth road games, falling by seven at Oklahoma State, and by just one at North Carolina. Pittsburgh has averaged over 38 points per game but the Panthers are also allowing over 31 points per game. Pittsburgh has had some good fortune this season with a +5 turnover margin and with five non-offensive touchdowns including three interception return scores.


Virginia Tech has featured similar scoring production as well although blowout wins over FCS Liberty, Boston College, and East Carolina are skewing the results a bit. The two losses for the Hokies came by 21 points vs. Tennessee and by 14 points at Syracuse with turnovers playing a big factor in those results. Virginia Tech owns an even turnover margin this season and a Hokies defense with a reputation for big plays doesn’t have a defensive score yet this season.


Former Memphis head coach Justin Fuente stepped into a favorable situation taking over a stable program after the long tenure of Frank Beamer. Virginia Tech has been to a bowl game every season since 1993 and that run looks ready to continue. This season’s team has been substantially improved defensively allowing just 4.4 yards per play this season and surrendering just 302 yards per game, both big improvements compared to last season. The Hokies have been especially tough against the run allowing just 2.9 yards per carry with longtime Beamer assistant Bud Foster still running the defense.


On offense the results have been strong albeit a bit erratic for the Hokies with junior Jerod Evans posting great numbers with 19 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Evans has added over 400 rushing yards to boost the ground game that is led by sophomore Travon McMillian who passed 1,000 yards as a freshman last season.


Pittsburgh finished 8-5 last season for a successful first season for Pat Narduzzi, with the Panthers hoping to have some coaching stability after losing Todd Graham and Paul Chryst in the past five years. Nathan Peterman is senior quarterback that has built on a fine 2015 season with stronger results in 2016, completing 63 percent of his passes and with only two interceptions in 158 attempts. James Conner has been a great comeback story for the Panthers in the backfield while sophomore speedster Quadree Henderson has been a threat in the running and passing games as a big play threat.


The Panthers have been the far worse defensive team allowing 6.0 yards per play this season for regression compared to last season’s numbers. The Panthers have been stout against the run but they are allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game. Getting big leads early has been a factor in those numbers however as Pittsburgh had substantial early leads on Penn State and North Carolina before tight finishes in splitting those marquee contests.


Historical Trends:


-- Virginia Tech has struggled in this series that has been recently renewed with Pittsburgh following Virginia Tech to the ACC after the teams were Big East members.


-- The Hokies are 2-10 ATS in the past 12 meetings going back to 1996 including holding only one S/U win (2013) since 2001.


-- Under Beamer the Hokies had an impressive road favorite run going 21-7 ATS from 2004 through 2011 but since 2012 Virginia Tech is just 4-11 ATS in the road favorite role, splitting this season with a win at North Carolina and the upset loss at Syracuse as an over three-touchdown favorite.


-- Pittsburgh is just 6-16-2 ATS at home since 2013 but going further back Pittsburgh is 25-18 ATS as a home underdog since 1996 including the outright win over Louisville last season in the last instance.

 

[CNOTES]

Navy at South Florida
October 26, 2016


**Navy at South Florida**


-- Navy is unbeaten in AAC play and holds sole possession of the lead in the West Division going into Friday’s showdown at South Florida in Raymond James Stadium. The Bulls were atop the AAC East standings until falling at Temple last Friday night. Now they’re in a first-place tie with the Owls as both schools are 3-1 in league play, but Matt Rhule’s squad owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. Therefore, Willie Taggart’s squad is in dire need of a bounce-back victory, while the Midshipmen are 1.5 games ahead of Memphis and Tulsa, both of whom are 2-1 in conference action.


-- As of Wednesday, most betting shops had South Florida (6-2 straight up, 5-3 against the spread) installed as an 7.5-point favorite with a total of 63 points. The Midshipmen were +260 on the money line (risk $100 to win $260).


-- USF saw its three-game winning streak snapped in a 46-30 loss at Temple as a 5.5-point road ‘chalk’ last Friday. The 76 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 58.5-point total. The game had five lead changes until the Owls took the lead for good on a Ryquell Armstead 42-yard touchdown run with 3:53 left in the third quarter. They extended the advantage to 34-23 with Jahad Thomas’s TD scamper before the end of the third and tacked on a field goal to lead by 14 with 10:09 remaining. USF’s Marlon Mack trimmed the deficit to 37-30 with 8:42 left on a 30-yard TD run, but another Thomas TD put the game on ice with 3:17 remaining.

-- In the losing effort at Temple, USF junior quarterback Quinton Flowers completed 11-of-19 passes for 187 yards and two TDs without an interception. Flowers also rushed for a team-high 90 yards on 14 carries, including a three-yard scoring run that gave the Bulls their last lead with 5:21 left in the third. Mack rushed for 67 yards and one TD on 13 totes. The junior RB also had three catches for 33 yards.


-- Flowers has completed 117-of-200 passes (58.5%) for 1,717 yards with a 15/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for a team-best 745 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Flowers will look early and often for his favorite target, Rodney Adams. The senior WR has 34 receptions for 502 yards and four TDs.


-- Mack is USF’s all-time leading rusher already, producing 659 yards and 10 TDs so far this year. Mack (6.8 YPC) also has 13 catches for 121 yards. D’Ernest Johnson is Mack’s back-up who has rushed for 321 yards and four TDs with a 5.4 YPC average.


-- USF is 12th in the nation in rushing yards (256.1 YPG) and 11th in scoring, averaging 42.4 points per game. The defense has struggled, though. This unit gives up 28.4 PPG and ranks No. 103 among FBS teams in total defense (448.0 YPG).


-- Navy (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) has stormed out to a 4-0 record in AAC play. The Midshipmen pulled a stunner on Oct. 8 by beating Houston 46-40 as a 15.5-point home underdog. Josiah Powell’s 34-yard interception return for a TD shifted all the momentum and led to the Cougars’ first loss of the year. Senior QB Will Worth threw a pair of TD passes and ran for 115 yards and one TD on 32 carries.


-- Navy is off a 42-28 home win over Memphis as a one-point home favorite. Worth was the catalyst with a monster performance, accounting for five TDs and 286 all-purpose yards. Worth completed 3-of-4 passes for 85 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also rushed for 201 yards and three scores on 31 attempts. Dishan Romine added 92 rushing yards on just seven carries.


-- Worth has completed 37-of-62 passes (59.7%) for 688 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for a team-best 487 yards and nine TDs while averaging 3.6 YPC. Chris High is Navy’s second-leading rusher with 392 yards and five TDs on 55 totes. High is averaging 7.1 YPC. Romine averages 9.2 YPC, producing 258 yards on the ground on only 28 carries.


-- Senior WR Jamir Tillman is duplicating his 2015 production when he caught 29 balls for 597 yards and five TDs. In 2016, Tillman has 19 receptions for 286 yards and one TD.


-- Navy has been a road underdog 28 times during Ken Niumatalolo’s nine-year tenure, compiling an incredible 19-9 spread record. However, it is 0-1 both SU and ATS as a road ‘dog this year, losing 28-14 at Air Force while catching seven points in Week 5.


-- South Florida owns a 7-4 spread record in 11 games as a home favorite during Taggart’s four-year tenure. The Bulls are had covered in six straight home ‘chalk’ spots until beating UConn by a 42-27 count as 20-point favorites two weeks ago.


-- USF owns wins over Towson (56-20), No. Illinois (48-17), at Syracuse (45-20), at Cincinnati (45-20) and vs. East Carolina. In addition to the aforementioned loss at Temple, the Bulls lost 55-35 to FSU at home as four-point underdogs.


-- On top of the noted victories over Houston and Memphis, Navy has wins vs. Fordham (52-16), vs. UConn (28-24) and at Tulane (21-14). Going back to late in the 2014 regular season, the Midshipmen have won 22 of its last 26 games with the lone defeats coming against Notre Dame (twice), at Houston and at Air Force.


-- USF could be without three key players who are listed as ‘questionable’ and didn’t play last week at Temple. Starting sophomore CB Ronnie Hoggins (calf) and starting safety Devin Abraham (thumb) are two of those players. Abraham had 51 tackles and three interceptions in 2015, while Hoggins had 26 tackles, two interceptions and six passes broken up. So far this year in six games, Hoggins had 29 tackles, one tackle for loss, three PBU, one forced fumble and one interception. Meanwhile, Abraham has recorded 28 tackles. The other injured player, WR Ryeshene Bronson, has missed back-to-back contests with a shoulder issue. Bronson has nine catches for 175 yards and one TD this season.


-- Navy senior LB Daniel Gonzales was lost for the season to a foot injury earlier this month. In the team’s first four games, Gonsales had 23 tackles and one tackle for a loss.


-- The ‘over’ has hit at a 6-2 overall clip for USF, going 4-1 in its home games. The Bulls have seen their games average combined scores of 70.8 points per game.


-- The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for Navy, but the ‘under’ has cashed in both of its previous road assignments. Navy’s games have averaged combined scores of 58.8 PPG.


-- When these AAC adversaries met last season, Navy captured a 29-17 win as a six-point home favorite. The 46 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 51-point tally. USF took a 17-13 lead early in the third quarter and maintained a 17-16 advantage until Navy’s Keenan Reynolds scored on a one-yard TD plunge with 6:58 remaining. Another one-yard TD run by Reynolds with 1:49 left gave the Middies the frontdoor spread cover. Mack was limited to 29 rushing yards and one TD on 10 carries. Flowers connected just 12 times on 20 throws for 208 yards. He was held to 15 rushing yards on six attempts.


-- Kickoff on Friday night in Tampa is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- There are two other games on Friday’s card: San Diego State at Utah State and Air Force at Fresno State. The Aztecs and Aggies will collide at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network, while Air Force and Fresno State will kick at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.


-- As of Wednesday, most spots had the Aztecs as six-point road favorites with a total of 44 points. This is the lowest total San Diego State has seen this year. Rocky Long’s team has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its road assignments. The Aztecs are 6-1 SU and 3-3-1 ATS. They are unbeaten in three Mtn. West games, taking their only defeat by a 42-24 score at South Alabama as 18.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Utah State (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) has limped to a 1-3 spread record in four games as a home underdog on Matt Wells’s watch over the last four years.


-- As of Wednesday, most books had Air Force (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) listed as a 14-point road favorite. The Falcons are 12-12 ATS as road favorites during Troy Calhoun’s 10-year tenure, going 1-1 both SU and ATS in a pair of such spots this year. Fresno State has taken the cash in three consecutive outings. The Bulldogs, who are 1-7 SU and 4-3 ATS, have covered the number in both lined home games. They just fired head coach Tim DeRuyter after last week’s 38-20 loss at Utah State.


-- Wisconsin LB Jack Cichy is out for the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Cichy was the Badgers’ leading tackler with 60 stops, seven TFL’s, two forced fumbles, 1.5 sacks, three QB hurries and two PBU.


-- Michigan State has lost five in a row both SU and ATS after dropping a 28-17 decision at Maryland as a three-point road ‘chalk.’ The Spartans had never lost four straight on Mark Dantonio’s watch until this season. Now they have to host a Michigan team starved for revenge after last year’s gut-wrenching and improbable home loss to Michigan State on a blocked punt return for a TD as time expired.


-- Marshall has to be one of the nation's biggest disappointments. After leading the Thundering Herd to three consecutive seasons with double-digit win totals, Doc Holliday's team has fallen on hard times this year. Marshall is 2-5, losing three games outright as a double-digit favorite. The Thundering Herd lost 27-24 at home to Charlotte last week as an 8.5-point home 'chalk.' They are double-digit 'dogs at So. Miss this weekend. Marshall has posted a 1-0-1 spread record in both games as a double-digit 'dog this year.


-- Here’s what Texas Tech junior QB Patrick Mahomes’ stat line looked like in last week’s narrow loss vs. Oklahoma: 52-of-88 passes for 734 yards and five TDs with one interception. He also rushed 12 times for 85 yards and two TDs.


-- Texas Tech and Oklahoma shattered NCAA records galore in OU’s 66-59 victory in Lubbock. Both teams produced 854 yards of total offense apiece. Baker Mayfield threw for 545 yards and seven TDs without an interception. DeDe Westbrook had nine receptions for 202 yards and two TDs, while RB Joe Mixon rushed for 263 yards and a pair of scores on 31 attempts. Mixon also had four catches for 114 yards and three more TDs.


-- Washington State turned a 14-3 deficit into a 31-14 advantage and then held on to win 37-32 at Arizona State. The Sun Devils covered the spread thanks to a 29-yard field goal from Zane Gonzalez with 4:36 remaining. The Cougars have won five in a row and are a perfect 4-0 in Pac-12 play. They will probably be favored in their next four games before facing now-unbeaten Washington at home on Nov. 25. Not only will the Apple Cup be on the line, but a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game will likely be at stake.


-- Playing for only the second time this year, Gunner Kiel sparked Cincinnati to a 31-19 home win over East Carolina as a one-point underdog by throwing for 348 yards and four TDs without an interception.

 

[CNOTES]

Handicapping CFP Odds
October 26, 2016


Sportsbook.ag has released lines for potential matchups in the finals of the College Football Playoffs. As you would undoubtedly expect, top-ranked and unbeaten Alabama is a favorite over all of its possible opponents.


The oddsmakers at the offshore shop agree with my placement of Michigan at No. 2 in this week’s VegasInsider.com rankings. The Wolverines, who are also undefeated and dealing out beatdowns on the regular just like the Crimson Tide, are listed as 9.5-point underdogs to Alabama.


Nick Saban’s team is a double-digit favorite over everyone else, including a 10-point ‘chalk’ over once-beaten Ohio State. Since the Buckeyes still have Michigan on their schedule, they still have a great chance of going to the CFP despite last week’s loss at Penn State.


I’ll say the same about Clemson. Even if the Tigers lose at Florida State this week, they’ll still control their destiny to get to the ACC Championship Game and will be in great shape to go back to the CFP if they win out. Dabo Swinney’s team is an 11.5-point underdog vs. Alabama.


When these schools met in the finals this past January, Alabama won a 45-40 decision. However, Clemson took the cash as a 6.5-point underdog when Deshaun Watson threw a TD pass with 12 seconds left to secure the backdoor spread cover.


Alabama would be a 14.5-point favorite versus both Washington and Louisville. This is a line I’ll take issue with. Our VI Rankings have Louisville at fourth ahead of the unbeaten Huskies, who will face their toughest test of the year Saturday at Utah. I would take Louisville as a double-digit underdog against any team in the country at an venue.


Let’s also note that Sportsbook.ag has Alabama as a 10-point favorite for its Week 10 showdown at LSU. For the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa, the offshore book has the Tide favored by 17 over Auburn. Gus Malzahn’s team was a 19.5-point underdog for this game last week, but its 56-3 mauling of Arkansas clearly caught the eyes of oddsmakers.


Although Sportsbook.ag has Ohio State as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. Michigan in the regular-season finale at The ‘Shoe, it has the Wolverines as a 2.5-point ‘chalk’ over the Buckeyes at a neutral field. Ohio St.’s stock clearly took a hit with the loss at PSU because it was favored by seven over Jim Harbaugh’s bunch at this time last week.


Michigan is favored by 2.5 over Clemson and 3.5 in potential matchups against both Washington and Louisville. I would love to be able to lay such a small number on Harbaugh’s squad against the Huskies.


Ohio State is a pick ‘em vs. Clemson and would be favored by 3.5 points over both UW and U of L. In that scenario, I would love Lamar Jackson and Co. catching the 3.5 points and to beat the Buckeyes outright with a money-line play. I would also be bullish on Clemson at pick ‘em against Ohio St.


Clemson would be a 2.5-point favorite over both UW and U of L, while the Huskies and Cardinals would be a pick ‘em against each other. And that would be my favorite play of all – Louisville at pick ‘em vs. Washington!


Other notable Games of the Year at Sportsbook.ag include a slew of rivalry games on Nov. 26.
FSU -7 vs. Florida
Ole Miss -13.5 vs. Mississippi State
USC -11.5 vs. Notre Dame
Oklahoma -13.5 vs. Oklahoma State


Who are the other candidates left out by Sportsbook?


Well, let’s be clear that I’m not implying these teams will make the CFP, but there are definitely a number teams in play if they win out.


Five of those schools are from the SEC. They include Florida, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn and Tennessee.


Florida and LSU will face each other in Baton Rouge on Nov. 19. The Gators have only one loss, a 38-28 setback at Tennessee when UF was without starting QB Luke Del Rio and allowed a 21-0 lead to get away.


LSU has two losses but a win over Alabama and then winning the SEC Championship Game would bolster its resume enough to get past narrow losses at Wisconsin (at Lambeau Field, actually) and at Auburn.


Auburn’s two defeats came at home vs. Clemson and Texas A&M, who have one loss (at Alabama) combined between them. Most important, Auburn winning out would include a victory at Alabama.


Texas A&M has quality win at Auburn and vs. Tennessee and its lone defeat came at Bryant-Denny Stadium, where it actually held the lead briefly in the second half. The Aggies would love for UCLA and Arkansas, teams they have already beaten, to finish strong. They can still add quality victories at home vs. Ole Miss and LSU.


Tennessee’s losses have come vs. Alabama and at Texas A&M (in double overtime). The Vols have quality wins vs. Va. Tech, vs. Florida and at Georgia. Their hopes hinge on UF losing and then winning in Atlanta against the SEC West champ.


Let’s not forget Wisconsin, either. There’s no shame in its two defeats, 14-7 at Michigan and an overtime loss to Ohio St. The Badgers have quality wins vs. LSU and at Iowa, and they can add scalps vs. undefeated Nebraska, at Northwestern and Michigan or Ohio St. at the Big Ten Championship Game.


I clearly think Nebraska is a pretender and will go down for the first time at Camp Randall this weekend. Also, unbeaten Baylor and West Virginia are likely to lose at least once in the coming weeks. With that said, that trio of teams is clearly alive and we can’t quite eliminate Oklahoma from the equation, either.


Listed below are the Possible Championship Matchup odds at the offshore outfit.


NCAA Football Possible 2017 Championship Matchup - per Sportsbook.ag


Ohio State +10
Alabama -10


Michigan +9.5
Alabama -9.5


Clemson +11.5
Alabama -11.5


Washington +14.5
Alabama -14.5


Louisville +14.5
Alabama -14.5


Michigan -2.5
Ohio State +2.5


Clemson PK
Ohio State PK


Washington +3.5
Ohio State -3.5


Louisville +3.5
Ohio State -3.5


Michigan -2.5
Clemson +2.5


Washington +2.5
Clemson -2.5


Louisville +2.5
Clemson -2.5


Michigan -3.5
Louisville +3.5


Washington PK
Louisville PK


Washington +3.5
Michigan -3.5

Odds Subject to Change - Updated 10.26.16

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Short Sheet


Week 9


Thurs – Oct. 27


Ohio at Toledo, 7:30 PM ET
Ohio: 4-12 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points
Toledo: 50-28 ATS as a home favorite


Akron at Buffalo, 7:30 PM ET
Akron: 1-5 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game
Buffalo:5-2 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points


Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh, 7:00 PM ET
Virginia Tech: 16-5 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7
Pittsburgh: 1-8 ATS in home lined games


Appalachian State at Georgia Southern, 7:30 PM ET
Appalachian St: 1-6 ATS after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games
Georgia S: 15-7 ATS in games played on a grass field


California at USC, 10:30 PM ET
California: 15-5 ATS in road games after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game
USC: USC 3-11 ATS off a win against a conference rival


----------------------------


Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 9 college football games


The Oregon Ducks have allowed at least 51 points or more in each of their past three games.


Spread to bet now:


Tulane (-2.5) vs. SMU


SMU actually opened as a slight favorite in this game, but the early money has come in on Tulane. Play it now before it hits the key number of -3. The Green Wave enter off back-to-back underdog losses versus Memphis and Tulsa, but Tulane will now be taking a step down in class. The Green Wave is 3-0 SU as a favorite this season, while going 0-4 SU as an underdog.


This is a potential flat spot for SMU after they pulled one of the biggest upsets this season, winning 38-16 as a +23 point underdog versus Houston last week. SMU also has another big home game on deck next week versus Memphis, so overlooking this single road game at Tulane is a definite possibility, especially since the Mustangs won easily 49-21 last year.


Spread to wait on:


Florida International (+17) vs. Middle Tennessee


Middle Tennessee briefly opened as a -16.5 point favorite and was quickly bet up to -17. The public will likely push this line higher as the weekend approaches. However, this is a major flat spot for the Blue Raiders after their 51-45 road win at Missouri last week as a +7.5 point underdog. Making a letdown more likely is the fact MTSU played a double-overtime game the week prior versus Western Kentucky.


Florida International is 2-0 ATS in this head-to-head series the past two seasons, including a 38-28 straight-up home underdog win two years ago. The Panthers started this season 0-4 SU/ATS, but have started playing better this month, going 3-1 SU in their past four games. They are also due for some positive turnover luck as they have forced just one turnover or less in seven of their eight games this season.


Total to watch:


Arizona State at Oregon (78)


Arizona State quarterback Manny Wilkins left last week's game with a stinger and is questionable to play this week. He is 115-for-190 (61%) passing this season, averaging 7.5 yards per pass with a 6/5 TD/INT ratio. Backup QB Brady White is just 25-for-49 (51%), averaging 5.3 ypp with a 2/1 TD/INT ratio. Regardless of the quarterback, the Sun Devils should have no problem scoring on a terrible Oregon defense that is allowing 43.3 points and 539 total yards per game. The Ducks have allowed at least 51 points or more in each of their past three games.


Arizona State is also a poor defensive team that is allowing 36.3 points and 475 total yards per game on the road this season. The Sun Devils have permitted 41 and 40 points in their two conference road games this year. Oregon is a capable offensive team that is averaging 39.0 points and 518 total yards per game at home this season. Oregon won 61-55 last year in triple-overtime; the game was tied 41-41 at the end of regulation.

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS


ATS


11:59 pm 10/29/2016
(205) NEW MEXICO @(206) HAWAII
Play AGAINST HAWAII against the spread in Home games after playing a conference game.
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (-9.9 units)
BET NOW!


10:30 pm 10/29/2016
(203) UNLV @(204) SAN JOSE ST
Play AGAINST SAN JOSE ST against the spread in All games as an underdog.
The record is 3 Wins and 15 Losses for the last three seasons (-13.5 units)
BET NOW!


7:30 pm 10/29/2016
(123) NEW MEXICO ST @(124) TEXAS A&M
Play AGAINST TEXAS A&M against the spread in All games in weeks 5 through 9.
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-10 units)
BET NOW!


7:30 pm 10/29/2016
(123) NEW MEXICO ST @(124) TEXAS A&M
Play AGAINST TEXAS A&M against the spread in All games after playing a conference game.
The record is 4 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-13.6 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(193) LA MONROE @(194) ARKANSAS ST
Play AGAINST LA MONROE against the spread in All games in October games.
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-10 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(193) LA MONROE @(194) ARKANSAS ST
Play AGAINST LA MONROE against the spread in All games in weeks 5 through 9.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-11.1 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(121) CONNECTICUT @(122) E CAROLINA
Play AGAINST CONNECTICUT against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.4 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(139) PENN ST @(140) PURDUE
Play AGAINST PENN ST against the spread in All games in road games.
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (-8.8 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(121) CONNECTICUT @(122) E CAROLINA
Play AGAINST E CAROLINA against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.6 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/28/2016
(113) NAVY @(114) S FLORIDA
Play ON NAVY against the spread in Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 65 Wins and 26 Losses since 1992 (+36.4 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS


Money Line




11:00 pm 10/29/2016
(167) STANFORD @(168) ARIZONA
Play ON STANFORD using the money line in Road games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 19 Wins and 8 Losses since 1992 (+23.15 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(137) KANSAS @(138) OKLAHOMA
Play ON OKLAHOMA using the money line in All games off a win against a conference rival.
The record is 7 Wins and 6 Losses for the last three seasons (-28.6 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(193) LA MONROE @(194) ARKANSAS ST
Play ON ARKANSAS ST using the money line in Home games in October games.
The record is 22 Wins and 8 Losses since 1992 (+23.35 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(187) BOISE ST @(188) WYOMING
Play ON BOISE ST using the money line in All games in weeks 5 through 9.
The record is 34 Wins and 9 Losses since 1992 (+27.1 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(189) NORTH TEXAS @(190) UTSA
Play AGAINST UTSA using the money line in All games in all lined games.
The record is 9 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-26.45 units)
BET NOW!


5:00 pm 10/29/2016
(201) ARIZONA ST @(202) OREGON
Play AGAINST OREGON using the money line in All games in all games.
The record is 6 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-21.2 units)
BET NOW!


3:30 pm 10/29/2016
(131) ARMY @(132) WAKE FOREST
Play AGAINST ARMY using the money line in All games in non-conference games.
The record is 45 Wins and 110 Losses since 1992 (-86.95 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(133) MINNESOTA @(134) ILLINOIS
Play AGAINST ILLINOIS using the money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 16 Wins and 39 Losses since 1992 (-39.85 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(121) CONNECTICUT @(122) E CAROLINA
Play AGAINST CONNECTICUT using the money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 2 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.95 units)
BET NOW!


10:30 pm 10/27/2016
(111) CALIFORNIA @(112) USC
Play AGAINST CALIFORNIA using the money line in All games off a win against a conference rival.
The record is 26 Wins and 44 Losses since 1992 (-50 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS


Half Time




10:45 pm 10/29/2016
(165) WASHINGTON ST @(166) OREGON ST
Play AGAINST OREGON ST in the first half in All games off a loss against a conference rival.
The record is 2 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-13.4 units)
BET NOW!


10:45 pm 10/29/2016
(165) WASHINGTON ST @(166) OREGON ST
Play AGAINST OREGON ST in the first half in All games when playing on a Saturday.
The record is 4 Wins and 22 Losses for the last three seasons (-20.2 units)
BET NOW!


10:30 pm 10/29/2016
(203) UNLV @(204) SAN JOSE ST
Play AGAINST UNLV in the first half in All games as a road favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 2 Wins and 17 Losses since 1992 (-16.7 units)
BET NOW!


12:30 pm 10/29/2016
(153) BOSTON COLLEGE @(154) NC STATE
Play AGAINST BOSTON COLLEGE in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last two seasons (-14.6 units)
BET NOW!


12:30 pm 10/29/2016
(153) BOSTON COLLEGE @(154) NC STATE
Play AGAINST BOSTON COLLEGE in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last two seasons (-14.6 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(133) MINNESOTA @(134) ILLINOIS
Play AGAINST ILLINOIS in the first half in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.1 units)
BET NOW!


10:30 pm 10/28/2016
(117) AIR FORCE @(118) FRESNO ST
Play ON FRESNO ST in the first half in Home games in games played on turf.
The record is 22 Wins and 5 Losses since 1992 (+16.5 units)
BET NOW!


7:30 pm 10/27/2016
(109) APPALACHIAN ST @(110) GA SOUTHERN
Play AGAINST GA SOUTHERN in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses this season (-7.7 units)
BET NOW!


7:30 pm 10/27/2016
(105) AKRON @(106) BUFFALO
Play AGAINST BUFFALO in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last two seasons (-14.6 units)
BET NOW!


7:30 pm 10/27/2016
(105) AKRON @(106) BUFFALO
Play AGAINST BUFFALO in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last two seasons (-14.6 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS


Half Time Over




11:59 pm 10/29/2016
(205) NEW MEXICO @(206) HAWAII
Play OVER NEW MEXICO on the first half total in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


11:59 pm 10/29/2016
(205) NEW MEXICO @(206) HAWAII
Play OVER NEW MEXICO on the first half total in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(193) LA MONROE @(194) ARKANSAS ST
Play OVER ARKANSAS ST on the first half total in All games after playing a conference game.
The record is 14 Overs and 3 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(193) LA MONROE @(194) ARKANSAS ST
Play OVER ARKANSAS ST on the first half total in All games off a win against a conference rival.
The record is 12 Overs and 2 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(137) KANSAS @(138) OKLAHOMA
Play OVER OKLAHOMA on the first half total in All games as a favorite of 17.5 or more points vs. the first half line.
The record is 11 Overs and 1 Unders since 1992 (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!


4:00 pm 10/29/2016
(163) SMU @(164) TULANE
Play OVER SMU on the first half total in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 15 Overs and 3 Unders for the last three seasons (+11.7 units)
BET NOW!


4:00 pm 10/29/2016
(163) SMU @(164) TULANE
Play OVER SMU on the first half total in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 10 Overs and 1 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!


3:30 pm 10/29/2016
(127) W KENTUCKY @(128) FLA ATLANTIC
Play OVER W KENTUCKY on the first half total in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 10 Overs and 0 Unders for the last three seasons (+10 units)
BET NOW!


12:30 pm 10/29/2016
(153) BOSTON COLLEGE @(154) NC STATE
Play OVER NC STATE on the first half total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(143) LOUISVILLE @(144) VIRGINIA
Play OVER LOUISVILLE on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 14 Overs and 2 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!


--------------------------------


COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS


Half Time Under




7:15 pm 10/29/2016
(181) TENNESSEE @(182) S CAROLINA
Play UNDER S CAROLINA on the first half total in Home games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(171) NEBRASKA @(172) WISCONSIN
Play UNDER NEBRASKA on the first half total in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(171) NEBRASKA @(172) WISCONSIN
Play UNDER WISCONSIN on the first half total in All games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


3:30 pm 10/29/2016
(177) GEORGIA @(178) FLORIDA
Play UNDER FLORIDA on the first half total in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 4 Overs and 16 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.6 units)
BET NOW!


3:30 pm 10/29/2016
(157) MIAMI @(158) NOTRE DAME
Play UNDER MIAMI on the first half total in Road games after playing a conference game.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


3:30 pm 10/29/2016
(177) GEORGIA @(178) FLORIDA
Play UNDER FLORIDA on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 1 Overs and 13 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.9 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(139) PENN ST @(140) PURDUE
Play UNDER PURDUE on the first half total in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 14 Overs and 36 Unders since 1992 (+20.6 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(191) KENTUCKY @(192) MISSOURI
Play UNDER MISSOURI on the first half total in All games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 3 Overs and 14 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS


Over




11:59 pm 10/29/2016
(205) NEW MEXICO @(206) HAWAII
Play OVER NEW MEXICO on the total in All games in all games.
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


11:59 pm 10/29/2016
(205) NEW MEXICO @(206) HAWAII
Play OVER NEW MEXICO on the total in All games in all lined games.
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


10:30 pm 10/29/2016
(203) UNLV @(204) SAN JOSE ST
Play OVER UNLV on the total in All games as a favorite.
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


10:30 pm 10/29/2016
(203) UNLV @(204) SAN JOSE ST
Play OVER UNLV on the total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


8:00 pm 10/29/2016
(195) OLD DOMINION @(196) UTEP
Play OVER OLD DOMINION on the total in All games in road lined games.
The record is 15 Overs and 3 Unders since 1992 (+11.7 units)
BET NOW!


7:30 pm 10/29/2016
(123) NEW MEXICO ST @(124) TEXAS A&M
Play OVER NEW MEXICO ST on the total in All games when playing on a Saturday.
The record is 22 Overs and 7 Unders for the last three seasons (+14.3 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(125) MIDDLE TENN ST @(126) FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play OVER FLA INTERNATIONAL on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/29/2016
(193) LA MONROE @(194) ARKANSAS ST
Play OVER ARKANSAS ST on the total in All games off a win against a conference rival.
The record is 12 Overs and 1 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!


10:30 pm 10/28/2016
(117) AIR FORCE @(118) FRESNO ST
Play OVER FRESNO ST on the total in All games as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points.
The record is 10 Overs and 1 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!


10:30 pm 10/28/2016
(117) AIR FORCE @(118) FRESNO ST
Play OVER AIR FORCE on the total in Road games after playing a conference game.
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


------------------------------------


COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS


Under


7:15 pm 10/29/2016
(179) AUBURN @(180) OLE MISS
Play UNDER OLE MISS on the total in All games in weeks 5 through 9.
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!


7:15 pm 10/29/2016
(179) AUBURN @(180) OLE MISS
Play UNDER OLE MISS on the total in All games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 2 Overs and 16 Unders for the last three seasons (+13.8 units)
BET NOW!


3:30 pm 10/29/2016
(119) MIAMI OHIO @(120) E MICHIGAN
Play UNDER MIAMI OHIO on the total in Road games in October games.
The record is 6 Overs and 22 Unders since 1992 (+15.4 units)
BET NOW!


12:30 pm 10/29/2016
(153) BOSTON COLLEGE @(154) NC STATE
Play UNDER BOSTON COLLEGE on the total in All games off a loss against a conference rival.
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(155) W VIRGINIA @(156) OKLAHOMA ST
Play UNDER W VIRGINIA on the total in All games as a favorite.
The record is 5 Overs and 18 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.5 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(155) W VIRGINIA @(156) OKLAHOMA ST
Play UNDER W VIRGINIA on the total in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 4 Overs and 17 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.6 units)
BET NOW!


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(183) UCF @(184) HOUSTON
Play UNDER HOUSTON on the total in All games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)
BET NOW!


8:00 pm 10/28/2016
(115) SAN DIEGO ST @(116) UTAH ST
Play UNDER SAN DIEGO ST on the total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


7:30 pm 10/27/2016
(103) OHIO U @(104) TOLEDO
Play UNDER OHIO U on the total in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


7:00 pm 10/27/2016
(107) VIRGINIA TECH @(108) PITTSBURGH
Play UNDER VIRGINIA TECH on the total in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 0 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+10 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

FOOTBALL POWER LINES


7:30 pm 10/27/2016
(105) AKRON @(106) BUFFALO
Play Line: BUFFALO 17.5
BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO +11
Edge On: BUFFALO 6.5


7:30 pm 10/27/2016
(109) APPALACHIAN ST @(110) GA SOUTHERN
Play Line: GA SOUTHERN 4
BTB PowerLine: GA SOUTHERN -4
Edge On: GA SOUTHERN 8


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(197) MICHIGAN @(198) MICHIGAN ST
Play Line: MICHIGAN ST 24.5
BTB PowerLine: MICHIGAN ST +19
Edge On: MICHIGAN ST 5.5


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(183) UCF @(184) HOUSTON
Play Line: HOUSTON -9.5
BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON -24
Edge On: HOUSTON 14.5


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(133) MINNESOTA @(134) ILLINOIS
Play Line: ILLINOIS 9
BTB PowerLine: ILLINOIS 0
Edge On: ILLINOIS 9


12:00 pm 10/29/2016
(143) LOUISVILLE @(144) VIRGINIA
Play Line: VIRGINIA 32.5
BTB PowerLine: VIRGINIA +19
Edge On: VIRGINIA 13.5


3:30 pm 10/29/2016
(129) CINCINNATI @(130) TEMPLE
Play Line: TEMPLE -7
BTB PowerLine: TEMPLE -14
Edge On: TEMPLE 7


8:00 pm 10/29/2016
(161) TULSA @(162) MEMPHIS
Play Line: MEMPHIS -6.5
BTB PowerLine: MEMPHIS -12
Edge On: MEMPHIS 5.5


11:00 pm 10/29/2016
(167) STANFORD @(168) ARIZONA
Play Line: STANFORD -6
BTB PowerLine: STANFORD -12
Edge On: STANFORD 6


11:59 pm 10/29/2016
(205) NEW MEXICO @(206) HAWAII
Play Line: NEW MEXICO 3
BTB PowerLine: NEW MEXICO -4
Edge On: NEW MEXICO 7

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:


TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 32 - 24 - 6 *****


GOY...........0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 213-200-11 51.57% -3500


O/U Picks 79-75-4 51.30% -1750

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


VT at PITT 07:00 PM


PITT +3.5 *****


U 54.5 *****


OHIO at TOL 07:30 PM


TOL -16.0


O 58.0


AKR at BUFF 07:30 PM


BUFF +18.0


O 57.5


APP at GASO 07:30 PM


GASO +5.0


O 46.0 *****


CAL at USC 10:30 PM


CAL +19.0


U 75.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Virginia Tech holds off Pitt, 39-36
October 27, 2016


PITTSBURGH (AP) One of the nation's worst secondaries kept daring Virginia Tech quarterback Jerod Evans to throw. So he did. Over. And over. And over.


The junior shook off a right ankle injury to throw for a career-high 406 yards and two touchdowns to lead the 25th-ranked Hokies to a 39-36 victory over Pittsburgh on Thursday night.


Joey Slye tied the school and Atlantic Coach Conference records by making six field goals to help the Hokies (6-2, 4-1) beat the Panthers (5-3, 2-2) on the road for the first time in 17 years.


Pitt came in with the nation's 120th-ranked pass defense yet played bump-and-run for most of the game, hoping its defensive backs could win more than they lost.


Didn't happen. Instead, three Tech wide receivers topped 100 yards in the same game for the first time in school history. Isaiah Ford's 10 receptions included his school-record 23rd receiving touchdown. Bucky Hodges caught six passes for 145 yards and a score and Cam Phillips added 109 yards on a night the Hokies piled up 556 total yards.


''It's a great feeling when you can do what you love doing and that's throw the ball up and down the field against a pretty good defense,'' Evans said. ''One-on-one coverage. You can't ask for anything better than one-on-one coverage.''


Pitt coach Narduzzi built his reputation as defensive coordinator at Michigan State by requiring his secondary to play physical. He's intent on doing the same at Pitt, even as the weeks pass and improvement only comes in sporadic bursts. Facing the Hokies, it was no different.


''We had guys in position to make plays,'' Narduzzi said. ''We didn't make them. . There's not a whole lot of different ways to do it.''


Evans left briefly in the third quarter after getting his right leg rolled up on but returned to lead a fourth-quarter surge that included Slye's sixth field goal. Slye joked it got a little bit boring knocking in chip shot after chip shot, though he's hardly complaining after the Hokies won at Heinz Field for the first time in five tries and assured themselves of a bowl berth for a 24th straight year, the longest active streak in the nation.


It's a notable streak, but bigger goals lie ahead. The Hokies will end the weekend no worse than tied in the loss column with North Carolina atop the Coastal. Virginia Tech owns the tiebreaker, having beaten the Tar Heels decisively this month.


TRICKERATION


James Conner ran for 141 yards and three touchdowns for the Panthers but offensive coordinator Matt Canada continued to masterfully tinker with the Pitt playbook.


Nate Peterman completed 13 of 22 passes for 267 yards with a touchdown and an interception while also catching the first pass of his. Pitt offensive tackle Brian O'Neill scored his second touchdown of the season, this time on a pitch from Peterman that resulted in the 6-foot-6, 300-pound O'Neill barreling over the goal line from 5 yards out. O'Neill, a tight end in high school, scored on a throwback screen against Georgia Tech earlier this month.


PINBALL WIZARD


One of the connections between Evans and Ford includes a wild 36-yard gain in which Ford and Pitt cornerback Phillipie Motley batted it back and forth to each other as they went to the ground. Officials ruled it a catch on the field after Ford ripped it away from Motley before it hit the ground. The call stood upon review.


WILD MAN


Narduzzi became increasingly animated on the sideline as the game wore on, convinced Virginia Tech's wide receivers were illegally giving themselves and advantage on all those alley-oop passes from Evans.


''They did a great job pushing off all night,'' Narduzzi said. ''Give them credit for that.''


THE TAKEAWAY


Virginia Tech: The Hokies have the weapons to run the table. If Evans can avoid turning it over, the Hokies will be in the ACC title game.


''When you have three elite wide receivers, you can't ask for more,'' Evans said.


Pitt: Midway through Narduzzi's second season, the defense remains a chaotic work in progress. Even the debut of ballyhooed freshman safety Damar Hamlin's long anticipated debut did little to help. If Pitt's pass defense was even average, the Panthers would be a threat to reach the ACC title game. It's not, and the Panthers almost certainly won't be in Orlando in December.


UP NEXT


Virginia Tech: Travel to Duke on Nov. 5. The Hokies fell to the Blue Devils 45-43 in four overtimes last season.


Pitt: Begin a tough two-game stretch at Miami on Nov. 5. Hurricanes have won two of three meetings since Pitt joined the ACC in 2013.

 

[CNOTES]

Johnson runs for Buffalo-record 282 yards, Bulls beat Akron
October 27, 2016


BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) Jordan Johnson ran for a Buffalo-record 282 yards in the Bulls' 41-20 victory over Akron on Thursday night.


Tatum Slack sacked Akron's Thomas Woodson on a fourth-and-7 play to preserve the Bulls' 34-20 lead with 5:44 left.


Johnson put it out of reach 54 seconds later with a 39-yard scoring run. On that play, Johnson passed Alan Bell's previous single-game rushing mark of 266 yards set against Duquesne in 1991.


Johnson covered all 63 yards on Buffalo's final scoring drive and 50 of the Bulls' 64 yards on the drive that made it 34-20 with 9:34 left.


Tyree Jackson threw a touchdown pass and ran for two more scores for Buffalo (2-6, 1-3 Mid-American).


Johnson had a 61-yard TD run to make it 17-3 in the second quarter. He has 24 carries.


JoJo Natson scored on a 79-yard punt return and a 33-yard reception for the Zips (5-4, 3-2).


--------------------------


Lamb, Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern 34-10
October 27, 2016

STATESBORO, Ga. (AP) Taylor Lamb passed for 199 yards and ran for 94 yards and two touchdowns to help Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern 34-10 on Thursday night.


Jalin Moore added 126 yards rushing and Marcus Cox ran for 115 yards for the Mountaineers (6-2, 4-0 Sun Belt). Each had a touchdown run in the final quarter and Appalachian State scored the final 34 points after falling behind early.


Lamb put the Mountaineers on the board with a 14-yard run in the middle of the second quarter. Michael Rubino added field goals on each side of halftime and Lamb made it 20-10 with a 30-yard keeper late in the third.


Younghoe Koo's 32-yard field goal opened the scoring for the Eagles (4-4, 3-2) and Ukeme Eligwe returned a fumble 90 yards to make 10-0 late in the first quarter.


Georgia Southern never got moving on offense, though, and was outgained by the Mountaineers 498-159.

 

[CNOTES]

Brown leads Ohio to 31-26 win; 1st win at Toledo since 1967
October 27, 2016


TOLEDO, Ohio (AP) Dorian Brown had career highs with 212 yards rushing and 29 carries and Ohio beat Toledo 31-26 on Thursday night for the Bobcats' first road victory over the Rockets since 1967.


Ohio (6-3, 4-1 Mid-American) led 31-20 on Brown's 51-yard TD run with 8:08 left in the game and the Bobcats held the Rockets at midfield in the final minute for the first win in the series since 1988.


Quinton Maxwell passed for 159 yards and two touchdowns and the Bobcats never trailed.


Toledo (6-2, 3-1) capped the scoring on Logan Woodside's 10-yard pass to Jon'Vea Johnson with 3:28 left, but failed on the 2-point conversion attempt.


Woodside was 32 of 24 for 438 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Johnshon had six catches for 156 yards and two TDs and Corey Jones had seven catches for 115 yards and a score.


The Rockets cut the deficit it to 14-13 and 21-20.


-----------------------------


Darnold, Jones lead USC over Cal 45-24
October 27, 2016


LOS ANGELES (AP) Sam Darnold threw five touchdowns passes, Ronald Jones rushed for a career-high 223 yards and Southern California downed California 45-24 on Thursday night.


Darnold threw for 231 yards, with Darreus Rogers making six catches for a career-high 97 yards, as the Trojans rolled up a season-high 629 yards of total offense. Aca'Cedric Ware contributed a career-high 130 yards rushing to USC's total of 398.


USC (5-3, 4-2 Pac-12) scored on three of its first four possessions, with Darnold finding Rogers, Jones and Deontay Burnett for touchdowns. Rogers added a second touchdown catch with 28 seconds left, but two fumbles by Darnold allowed Cal (4-4, 2-3) to maintain a modicum of hope despite allowing 451 yards on 46 plays in the first half.


Webb threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns, throwing a ball up for grabs that was intercepted by safety Marvell Tell in the first quarter. Webb also rushed for a touchdown in the third quarter that cut USC's lead to 28-17 before Jones had a 37-yard touchdown run and Daniel Imatorbhebhe caught a 17-yard touchdown pass from Darnold.


Jones had 149 yards on eight first-half carries, as the sophomore broke out of a funk with starter Justin Davis (ankle) not in uniform.


THE TAKEAWAY


Cal: The Bears have now lost 13 in a row to the Trojans since handing Pete Carroll's 2003 national championship team its only loss in triple overtime that season. Cal was always going to have trouble defending Darnold and USC's plethora of skill players, and that task was even tougher with a short week to prepare and mounting injuries. But with three home games left, Cal has a good chance at becoming bowl eligible if it can maintain its strong play in Strawberry Canyon.


USC: The Trojans are white-hot, with Darnold leading the way. The freshman quarterback has now thrown 16 touchdown passes in leading USC to four consecutive wins, playing with a fearlessness and fire that the team was missing at the start of the season, though his ball security must improve. The Trojans are more than capable of turning the conference race upside down when they travel to No. 4 Washington on Nov. 12.


UP NEXT


Cal: The Bears host the Huskies on Nov. 5, a potential trap game for Washington.


USC: The Trojans host faltering Oregon on Nov. 5, seeking their first five-game winning streak since 2013.

 

[CNOTES]

Navy at South Florida
October 26, 2016



**Navy at South Florida**


-- Navy is unbeaten in AAC play and holds sole possession of the lead in the West Division going into Friday’s showdown at South Florida in Raymond James Stadium. The Bulls were atop the AAC East standings until falling at Temple last Friday night. Now they’re in a first-place tie with the Owls as both schools are 3-1 in league play, but Matt Rhule’s squad owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. Therefore, Willie Taggart’s squad is in dire need of a bounce-back victory, while the Midshipmen are 1.5 games ahead of Memphis and Tulsa, both of whom are 2-1 in conference action.


-- As of Wednesday, most betting shops had South Florida (6-2 straight up, 5-3 against the spread) installed as an 7.5-point favorite with a total of 63 points. The Midshipmen were +260 on the money line (risk $100 to win $260).


-- USF saw its three-game winning streak snapped in a 46-30 loss at Temple as a 5.5-point road ‘chalk’ last Friday. The 76 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 58.5-point total. The game had five lead changes until the Owls took the lead for good on a Ryquell Armstead 42-yard touchdown run with 3:53 left in the third quarter. They extended the advantage to 34-23 with Jahad Thomas’s TD scamper before the end of the third and tacked on a field goal to lead by 14 with 10:09 remaining. USF’s Marlon Mack trimmed the deficit to 37-30 with 8:42 left on a 30-yard TD run, but another Thomas TD put the game on ice with 3:17 remaining.


-- In the losing effort at Temple, USF junior quarterback Quinton Flowers completed 11-of-19 passes for 187 yards and two TDs without an interception. Flowers also rushed for a team-high 90 yards on 14 carries, including a three-yard scoring run that gave the Bulls their last lead with 5:21 left in the third. Mack rushed for 67 yards and one TD on 13 totes. The junior RB also had three catches for 33 yards.


-- Flowers has completed 117-of-200 passes (58.5%) for 1,717 yards with a 15/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for a team-best 745 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Flowers will look early and often for his favorite target, Rodney Adams. The senior WR has 34 receptions for 502 yards and four TDs.


-- Mack is USF’s all-time leading rusher already, producing 659 yards and 10 TDs so far this year. Mack (6.8 YPC) also has 13 catches for 121 yards. D’Ernest Johnson is Mack’s back-up who has rushed for 321 yards and four TDs with a 5.4 YPC average.


-- USF is 12th in the nation in rushing yards (256.1 YPG) and 11th in scoring, averaging 42.4 points per game. The defense has struggled, though. This unit gives up 28.4 PPG and ranks No. 103 among FBS teams in total defense (448.0 YPG).


-- Navy (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) has stormed out to a 4-0 record in AAC play. The Midshipmen pulled a stunner on Oct. 8 by beating Houston 46-40 as a 15.5-point home underdog. Josiah Powell’s 34-yard interception return for a TD shifted all the momentum and led to the Cougars’ first loss of the year. Senior QB Will Worth threw a pair of TD passes and ran for 115 yards and one TD on 32 carries.


-- Navy is off a 42-28 home win over Memphis as a one-point home favorite. Worth was the catalyst with a monster performance, accounting for five TDs and 286 all-purpose yards. Worth completed 3-of-4 passes for 85 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also rushed for 201 yards and three scores on 31 attempts. Dishan Romine added 92 rushing yards on just seven carries.


-- Worth has completed 37-of-62 passes (59.7%) for 688 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for a team-best 487 yards and nine TDs while averaging 3.6 YPC. Chris High is Navy’s second-leading rusher with 392 yards and five TDs on 55 totes. High is averaging 7.1 YPC. Romine averages 9.2 YPC, producing 258 yards on the ground on only 28 carries.


-- Senior WR Jamir Tillman is duplicating his 2015 production when he caught 29 balls for 597 yards and five TDs. In 2016, Tillman has 19 receptions for 286 yards and one TD.


-- Navy has been a road underdog 28 times during Ken Niumatalolo’s nine-year tenure, compiling an incredible 19-9 spread record. However, it is 0-1 both SU and ATS as a road ‘dog this year, losing 28-14 at Air Force while catching seven points in Week 5.


-- South Florida owns a 7-4 spread record in 11 games as a home favorite during Taggart’s four-year tenure. The Bulls are had covered in six straight home ‘chalk’ spots until beating UConn by a 42-27 count as 20-point favorites two weeks ago.


-- USF owns wins over Towson (56-20), No. Illinois (48-17), at Syracuse (45-20), at Cincinnati (45-20) and vs. East Carolina. In addition to the aforementioned loss at Temple, the Bulls lost 55-35 to FSU at home as four-point underdogs.


-- On top of the noted victories over Houston and Memphis, Navy has wins vs. Fordham (52-16), vs. UConn (28-24) and at Tulane (21-14). Going back to late in the 2014 regular season, the Midshipmen have won 22 of its last 26 games with the lone defeats coming against Notre Dame (twice), at Houston and at Air Force.


-- USF could be without three key players who are listed as ‘questionable’ and didn’t play last week at Temple. Starting sophomore CB Ronnie Hoggins (calf) and starting safety Devin Abraham (thumb) are two of those players. Abraham had 51 tackles and three interceptions in 2015, while Hoggins had 26 tackles, two interceptions and six passes broken up. So far this year in six games, Hoggins had 29 tackles, one tackle for loss, three PBU, one forced fumble and one interception. Meanwhile, Abraham has recorded 28 tackles. The other injured player, WR Ryeshene Bronson, has missed back-to-back contests with a shoulder issue. Bronson has nine catches for 175 yards and one TD this season.


-- Navy senior LB Daniel Gonzales was lost for the season to a foot injury earlier this month. In the team’s first four games, Gonsales had 23 tackles and one tackle for a loss.


-- The ‘over’ has hit at a 6-2 overall clip for USF, going 4-1 in its home games. The Bulls have seen their games average combined scores of 70.8 points per game.


-- The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for Navy, but the ‘under’ has cashed in both of its previous road assignments. Navy’s games have averaged combined scores of 58.8 PPG.


-- When these AAC adversaries met last season, Navy captured a 29-17 win as a six-point home favorite. The 46 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 51-point tally. USF took a 17-13 lead early in the third quarter and maintained a 17-16 advantage until Navy’s Keenan Reynolds scored on a one-yard TD plunge with 6:58 remaining. Another one-yard TD run by Reynolds with 1:49 left gave the Middies the frontdoor spread cover. Mack was limited to 29 rushing yards and one TD on 10 carries. Flowers connected just 12 times on 20 throws for 208 yards. He was held to 15 rushing yards on six attempts.


-- Kickoff on Friday night in Tampa is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- There are two other games on Friday’s card: San Diego State at Utah State and Air Force at Fresno State. The Aztecs and Aggies will collide at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network, while Air Force and Fresno State will kick at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.


-- As of Wednesday, most spots had the Aztecs as six-point road favorites with a total of 44 points. This is the lowest total San Diego State has seen this year. Rocky Long’s team has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its road assignments. The Aztecs are 6-1 SU and 3-3-1 ATS. They are unbeaten in three Mtn. West games, taking their only defeat by a 42-24 score at South Alabama as 18.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Utah State (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) has limped to a 1-3 spread record in four games as a home underdog on Matt Wells’s watch over the last four years.


-- As of Wednesday, most books had Air Force (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) listed as a 14-point road favorite. The Falcons are 12-12 ATS as road favorites during Troy Calhoun’s 10-year tenure, going 1-1 both SU and ATS in a pair of such spots this year. Fresno State has taken the cash in three consecutive outings. The Bulldogs, who are 1-7 SU and 4-3 ATS, have covered the number in both lined home games. They just fired head coach Tim DeRuyter after last week’s 38-20 loss at Utah State.


-- Wisconsin LB Jack Cichy is out for the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Cichy was the Badgers’ leading tackler with 60 stops, seven TFL’s, two forced fumbles, 1.5 sacks, three QB hurries and two PBU.


-- Michigan State has lost five in a row both SU and ATS after dropping a 28-17 decision at Maryland as a three-point road ‘chalk.’ The Spartans had never lost four straight on Mark Dantonio’s watch until this season. Now they have to host a Michigan team starved for revenge after last year’s gut-wrenching and improbable home loss to Michigan State on a blocked punt return for a TD as time expired.


-- Marshall has to be one of the nation's biggest disappointments. After leading the Thundering Herd to three consecutive seasons with double-digit win totals, Doc Holliday's team has fallen on hard times this year. Marshall is 2-5, losing three games outright as a double-digit favorite. The Thundering Herd lost 27-24 at home to Charlotte last week as an 8.5-point home 'chalk.' They are double-digit 'dogs at So. Miss this weekend. Marshall has posted a 1-0-1 spread record in both games as a double-digit 'dog this year.


-- Here’s what Texas Tech junior QB Patrick Mahomes’ stat line looked like in last week’s narrow loss vs. Oklahoma: 52-of-88 passes for 734 yards and five TDs with one interception. He also rushed 12 times for 85 yards and two TDs.


-- Texas Tech and Oklahoma shattered NCAA records galore in OU’s 66-59 victory in Lubbock. Both teams produced 854 yards of total offense apiece. Baker Mayfield threw for 545 yards and seven TDs without an interception. DeDe Westbrook had nine receptions for 202 yards and two TDs, while RB Joe Mixon rushed for 263 yards and a pair of scores on 31 attempts. Mixon also had four catches for 114 yards and three more TDs.


-- Washington State turned a 14-3 deficit into a 31-14 advantage and then held on to win 37-32 at Arizona State. The Sun Devils covered the spread thanks to a 29-yard field goal from Zane Gonzalez with 4:36 remaining. The Cougars have won five in a row and are a perfect 4-0 in Pac-12 play. They will probably be favored in their next four games before facing now-unbeaten Washington at home on Nov. 25. Not only will the Apple Cup be on the line, but a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game will likely be at stake.


-- Playing for only the second time this year, Gunner Kiel sparked Cincinnati to a 31-19 home win over East Carolina as a one-point underdog by throwing for 348 yards and four TDs without an interception.

 

[CNOTES]

College football four-point stance: Week 9 pointspread picks and predictions


Joe Fortenbaugh went 3-1 ATS with his college football picks last Saturday and is now 18-14 ATS on the season, heading into an exciting Week 9 slate.


Last Saturday we saw second-ranked Ohio State fall at Penn State despite closing as a 17.5-point favorite.


So with No. 2 Michigan (-24.5) set to travel to Michigan State, No. 3 Clemson (-4.5) headed to Tallahassee to face No. 12 Florida State, and No. 4 Washington (-10) on the road against No. 17 Utah, the big question entering this Saturday’s slate of action is whether or not another Top-5 program is headed for a costly defeat.


‘Tis the season for college football upsets.


Which brings us to this week’s marquee showdown featuring an undefeated Washington program that has decimated Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State by a combined score of 155-44 over its last three outings, and a very dangerous 7-1 Utah program that is 54-18 in Salt Lake City under head coach Kyle Whittingham.


Since falling 28-23 against California in Berkeley back on October 1, Utah has ripped off three straight victories against Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA. And that UCLA victory is especially worth noting because it saw Utah running back Joe Williams, who “retired” after the second game of the season, rush for an astounding 332 yards and four touchdowns on just 29 carries.


Williams is a chain-mover more than capable of aiding in the Utes’ quest to grind down the clock while keeping Heisman Trophy candidate Jake Browning and the Washington offense off the field.


Speaking of that Washington offense, it may be Browning that gets all the credit (and deservedly so), but the Huskies prefer a brutal brand of football that includes a heavy dose of the ground-and-pound. Between Washington’s rushing attack and the return of Joe Williams for Utah, having 10 points in our pockets with the Utes looks awfully appetizing when it comes to a home date that will be played at an elevation of 4,226 feet.


Pick: Utah +10




Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers


When: Saturday, October 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Penn State -13.5


This is a classic letdown situation thanks to the fact that Penn State shocked the college football world last Saturday night with a thrilling 24-21 upset win over the Ohio State Buckeyes.


That was head coach James Franklin’s first victory over an Associated Press Top-25 program since landing in Happy Valley back in 2014. But be advised that Franklin is 0-5-1 ATS as a road favorite as the Nittany Lions’ head coach. In addition, Penn State is an abysmal 3-14-2 ATS over its last 19 road dates.


The Boilermakers are just 3-4 both SU and ATS in 2016, but showed signs of life in last week’s 27-14 defeat at undefeated Nebraska (as 24-point underdogs), which is important due to the fact that it was Purdue’s first game out since the school parted ways with head coach Darrell Hazell. Purdue’s 7-1 ATS mark over its last eight games following a loss.


We fully expect Penn State to come out flat here after earning a spot in the Top 25 for the first time since 2011.


Pick: Purdue +13.5 (but holding out for Purdue +14)




Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets


When: Saturday, October 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Georgia Tech -7


The biggest challenge that accompanies a matchup with Georgia Tech is defending the option offense, which presents a variety of unique and intricate obstacles that require both discipline and sound coaching.


Fortunately for the Blue Devils, head coach David Cutcliffe is a master tactician who limited Army’s option offense to just 165 rushing yards and only six points in a 13-6 victory back on October 8.


Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils will have 15 days to get ready for Georgia Tech, which they’ve beaten in each of the last two years by a combined score of 65-45, thanks to a well-timed bye week that comes on the heels of a competitive 24-14 loss at Louisville.


It’s been a shaky run for the Yellow Jackets, who are just 4-11-1 ATS over their last 16 games overall and 1-5-1 ATS over their last seven showdowns with ACC opposition.


Head coach Paul Johnson is lacking the depth that, in the past, has made his offense run at a highly-efficient level, as evidenced by the anemic 20.6 points per game that Georgia Tech averaged during a three-game stretch this season against Clemson, Miami and Pittsburgh.


Don’t be surprised if the Blue Devils win this one outright.


Pick: Duke +7




Auburn Tigers at Mississippi Rebels


When: Saturday, October 29 at 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Auburn -4.5


Don’t look now, but after a sluggish start to the 2016 campaign that featured losses against Clemson and Texas A&M during the first three weeks of the season, Auburn has been cooking with gas over the last month thanks to four straight victories and pointspread covers over LSU, UL-Monroe, Mississippi State and Arkansas by an average of 33.3 points per game.


And with a defense that is permitting an average of just 9.3 points per contest over its last four outings, it’s safe to say that head coach Gus Malzahn is no longer on the hot seat.


While the Tigers have improved their position dramatically over the last month of the season, the same cannot be said about Hugh Freeze’s Rebels, who have been soundly beaten in each of their last two outings by Arkansas (34-30) and LSU (38-21), despite closing as 10-point favorites over the Razorbacks on October 15.


Auburn is 6-1 ATS over its last seven games against Ole Miss, 7-3 ATS over its last 10 trips to Ole Miss, and 7-1 ATS over its last eight SEC matchups.


Like we said earlier, don’t look now, but Auburn has become one of the trendiest plays in college football among the sharp and sophisticated gamblers.


Pick: Auburn -4.5


Last week: 3-1 ATS
Season: 18-14 ATS

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 9


Fri – Oct. 28


Navy at South Florida, 7:00 PM ET
Navy: 12-3 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins
S Florida: 7-22 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games


San Diego State at Utah State, 8:00 PM ET
San Diego St: 5-1 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals
Utah St: 1-5 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more


Air Force at Fresno State, 10:30 PM ET
Air Force: 8-20 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals
Fresno St: 13-3 ATS in home games after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 9


Saturday’s best 13 games


TCU beat Texas Tech 82-27/55-52 last two years, gaining a ridiculous 750-785 TY. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five series games; Red Raiders lost two of last three visits here, with average total in last two played here, 109.0. Yes, 109. Frogs are 10-4 in last 14 games as a home favorite, but 0-2 this year. Tech allowed 52.7 pts/game the last three games, 1,504 TY in last two; they’ve scored 50+ points in four games this year, are 2-2 in those games. Red Raiders are 5-3 in last eight games as a home dog. Three of last four TCU games stayed under; over is 4-2 in Tech games. Home favorites are 8-4 vs spread in Big X games.


Florida State is a home underdog for first time in five years; Seminoles won last two games vs Miami/Wake Forest, holding them to 528 TY, 25 points. Home side won eight of last nine Clemson-Florida State games; Tigers lost eight of last nine visits to Tallahassee, losing last four by 6-12-3-14 points, though Clemson did cover four of last five visits here (all as underdog). Seminoles won three of last four series games, but they’re thin this year and looked tired before their bye. Clemson is 4-7 in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-1 this year. Under is 5-2 in Clemson games, 3-0 in last three Seminole games.


Kansas State won its last eight games with Iowa State (underdogs 5-2-1 vs spread). Wildcats won 32-28/27-21 in last two visits here. K-State is 0-3 on road this year, scoring 15.3 pts/game; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a road favorite. Iowa State lost last three games despite leading all three games at the half, allowing 533 yds, 36.7 pts/game— they had last week off. Cyclones are 14-16-1 in last 31 games as a home dog, 1-0 this year. Under is 4-1 in last five K-State games, 1-4 in Cyclones’ last five games. Big X home underdogs are 3-3 vs spread.


West Virginia is 6-0, winning its only road game 48-17 at Texas Tech; WVU is 6-6-1 as road favorite under Holgorsen, 1-0 this year. Oklahoma State won its last three games, scoring 43.7 pts/game; Cowboys are 3-7 in last ten games as a home underdog- they lost 30-27 here to Central Michigan, 35-24 at Baylor. Home side lost last two West Virginia-OSU games; WVU ran ball for 210-255 yards in last two meetings- they split last two visits to Stillwater. Mountaineers’ last three games stayed under the total; four of last five OSU games went over the total.


Notre Dame lost four of last five games with only win 50-33 over Syracuse on a neutral field; Irish are 3-2 as home underdog under Kelly- they lost last three home games SU, to Mich State, Duke and Stanford, three mediocre teams. Irish crushed Miami 41-3 in last meeting, but that was in 2012. Hurricanes scored 16 pts/game in losing last three games after a 4-0 start; ‘canes allowed 13 sacks in their losses, are 2-1 on road, winning at App State, Ga Tech. Miami is 8-4 in last 12 games as a road favorite, 2-0 this year. ACC non-conference road favorites are 5-2 vs spread.


Texas lost four of last five games, amid rumors that coach Strong is on hot seat; Longhorns are 4-3-1 as home underdogs under Strong, 2-0 this year- they’re 3-0 SU at home, scoring 39.3 pts/game. Baylor won four of last six games with Texas, winning two of last three visits here, covering last four trips to Austin. Bears (-14) covered only game in last 20 years as road favorite vs Texas, beating Longhorns 28-7 two years ago; they’re 4-11-2 in last 17 games as road favorite, 0-2 this season. Underdogs are 5-4 vs spread in last nine series games. Four of five Baylor games stayed under.


Nebraska is getting nine points despite being 7-0, with wins at Northwestern (24-13), Indiana (27-22); Cornhuskers are 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road underdog. Wisconsin won four of last five games with Nebraska, pounding Huskers 59-24/48-17 in last two games played here. Nebraska covered last five series games. Badgers had tough games with Ohio State/Iowa last two weeks; they’re 7-9 in last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Last five Cornhusker games, four of last five Wisconsin games stayed under total. Big 14 home favorites are 5-11 vs spread.


Florida is 5-1 but has played very soft schedule, with loss at Tennessee (led 21-3 at half) only tough team they’ve played- their LSU game was pushed back a month. Gators are 13-5 in last 18 games with Georgia, winning last two, 38-20/27-3; Florida ran ball for 258-418 yards last two years. Georgia lost three of last four games, losing last game at home to Vandy- they allowed TD on opening kickoff; Dawgs are 2-7-1 in last ten games as an underdog, 1-1 this year. Favorites are 5-2-1 vs spread in series; Florida covered four of last five as a series favorite.


Ole Miss got thrashed by LSU’s ground game LW, is expected to announce a self-imposed bowl ban for this year, making them unplayable for rest of season. Rebels scored 45. pts/game in its three I-A home games, with only loss to Alabama. Auburn won/covered its last four games, with 38-14 win (-3.5) at Miss State, in their only road game of season so far; Tigers are 4-2 as road favorites under Malzahn- they won nine of last 12 games vs Ole Miss- favorites covered five of last six series games. Tigers won seven of last nine visits to Oxford. Auburn covered three of last four as road favorite in series. Ole Miss is 6-2 as a home dog under Freeze.


Houston lost two of last three games, losing 38-16 as a 21-point favorite at SMU LW; they’re a disappointed team, 6-9-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Central Florida is 4-3 after being winless LY; Knights scored 41.3 pts/game in winning last three road games- they’re 7-5 in last 12 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year. UCF lost 59-10 to Houston LY, giving up 366 rushing yards in just second Cougar win in last seven series games. UCF won 17-12/40-33 in last two visits here. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last four series games. Four of last five Houston games went over.


Wyoming is much-improved at 5-2, scoring 38.3 pts/game in three-game win streak; are young Cowboys ready for Boise State team that won its last ten games with Wyoming, covering three of last four? Broncos are 4-1 vs spread in winning last five visits to Laramie, with four of five wins by 22+ points. Boise is used to taking opponents’ best shot; they’re 31-14 in last 45 games as a road favorite, 9-5 under Harsin, 2-1 this year- they’re 3-0 on road this year, winning by 35-14-28 points, by Wyoming is by far best team they’ve visited this year. Mountain West home underdogs are 4-3 vs spread.


Washington is 7-0 but won 35-28 (-17) at Arizona in its only road game this year. Huskies are 3-2 as road favorites under Petersen- they scored 51.7 pts/game in last three games. Utah scored 35.7 pts/game in winning its last three games, but gave up 464 PY in 52-45 win at UCLA LW. Utes beat BYU/USC at home this year, are 7-1, with only loss 28-23 at Cal; since 2012, they’re 4-2 as a home underdog. Underdogs won last three Washington-Utah games SU; Utes (+2) won 34-23 in Seattle LY, even though Huskies outgained them 381-346. Utah ran ball for 360 yards in Rose Bowl last week.


Oregon lost its last five games, allowed 689 rushing yards in last two games and is struggling terribly while playing a freshman QB; their defense was on field for 116 plays in Berkeley last Friday. Ducks were outgained by 692 yards in their last three games, but they won nine in a row vs Arizona State; favorites are 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven series games. Sun Devils lost last three visits to Eugene, by 14-23-12 points. ASU lost three of last four games, allowing 77 points in last two games, losses at Colorado (40-16), at home to Wazzu (37-32). Pac-12 home favorites are 9-7 against the spread.