Betting Recap - Week 8
October 22, 2016
Overall Notes
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 8 RESULTS
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-19
Against the Spread 22-34-1
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 33-24
Against the Spread 29-27-1
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 30-25-2
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Southern Methodist (+23, ML +1000) vs. Houston, 38-16
North Texas (+17.5, ML +650) at Army, 35-18
Penn State (+17.5, ML +700) vs. Ohio State, 24-21
Hawaii (+17, ML +550) at Air Force, 34-27 (OT)
The largest favorites to cover
Northern Illinois (-24) vs. Buffalo, 44-7
Oklahoma State (-23.5) at Kansas, 44-20
San Diego State (-23.5) vs. San Jose State, 42-3
Top 25 Notes
-- There were a handful of elite teams enjoying a mid-season rest this weekend, including Clemson on a bye. Top-ranked Alabama was in action, though, and they handled their business in a battle of Top 10 teams against visiting Texas A&M. The Aggies have been known to give the Crimson Tide fits in the past, but this time was not one of those times. The Crimson Tide pulled away in the second half for a 33-14 victory, and they held on for the narrow cover after scoring the final points of the game early in the fourth quarter. ... Navy celebrated their return to the Top 25 with a victory at home against Memphis, 42-28. The Middies have won five of their six games this season, and they're an impressive 4-1-1 ATS heading into an AAC showdown at South Florida next Friday. ... Western Michigan continues to row that boat, winning their eighth game of the season. After opening 5-0 ATS, however, they have managed to cover just once in the past three games. The Broncos cracked the Top 20, and they're a non-Power 5 team to watch as they have two road wins over Big Ten teams and look poised for a New Year's Day bowl game if they continues to tick off wins. ... West Virginia continues to quietly roll along without much national fanfare. They improved to 6-0 SU for the first time since 2006 with a 34-10 win over Texas Chrisian, and they have covered back-to-back games for the first time this season after starting 1-3 ATS. The 'under' is 3-0 for the Mountaineers, and they have allowed 17 or fewer points in four of their six outings.
-- Utah kept themselves on target for their showdown with Washington next week by holding off UCLA, 52-45. The Utes have won back-to-back road games, and they're 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in five conference games. The battle with the Huskies takes place at Rice-Eccles next week where the Utes are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS. Utah RB Joe Williams burst onto the scene with 29 rushes for 332 yards and four touchdowns. Earlier in the season, he had elected to retire in September due to a multitude of injuries. Now, he holds the record as the school's all-time single game rushing yardage total.
-- Louisville was nearly caught napping last week in their ugly 24-14 win against Duke, but they more than answered the bell in their conference battle against upset-minded North Carolina State. The Cardinals fired out to a 44-0 lead at halftime and managed to earn a 54-13 victory at Papa John's Stadium. Total bettors felt the sting of the bad beat gods in the closing minutes of this game (see below).
-- North Carolina went to Charlottesville, in a place they have traditionally struggled, and picked up the 35-14 win over Virginia. The Cavaliers entered the game 7-1 ATS in their past eight ACC games, and 9-2-1 ATS in their past 12 overall, but they never really threatened to cover in this one as the Tar Heels kept them at arm's length all day. Since being whitewashed in the downpours during Hurricane Matthew against Virginia Tech, the Heels have bounced back with a pair of road wins and covers. In fact, UNC is 4-0 SU/ATS away from Kenan Stadium this season, and the Heels have won nine straight games on the road.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- It was a light week in the ACC, but Syracuse picked up a very important win. The Orange built on their win against Virginia Tech last week by winning on the road at Boston College, 28-20. Syracuse snapped an eight-game ACC road losing streak, and they handed the Eagles their 12th consecutive conference loss dating back to Nov. 29, 2014, when BC upended 'Cuse. ... Miami-Florida continues to struggle mightily, as they dropped their third straight ACC game, 37-16 at Virginia Tech Thursday night. The Hurricanes opened 4-0 SU/ATS, but now they're 0-3 SU/ATS and look anything but the team which earned a Top 10 ranking earlier in the month.
-- Wisconsin went down to Iowa and grinded out a 17-9 win to rebound after last weekend's disappointing near-miss against Ohio State. The Badgers earned the Heartland Trophy by holding the Hawkeyes to three field goals, just 14 first downs and 236 total yards. Wisconsin has won just two of their past three overall, but they're 4-0 ATS over the stretch, and 6-1 ATS in seven outings this season heading into next weekend's clash against Nebraska. ... Speaking of the Cornhuskers, they were behind 14-10 midway through the third quarter before shaking free of the Boilermakers for a 27-14 win. A win is a win, but it certainly will not quiet the critics questioning if the 'Huskers truly are a Top 10 caliber team. We'll learn a lot more next week. ... The Buckeyes were dumped in Happy Valley by the Nittany Lions, 24-21. It was especially upsetting for Ohio State bettors, who thought they might be in good shape with the score 21-7 entering the fourth quarter. The Buckeyes have failed to cover in each of their past three games, and the 'under' is 3-1 in their past four.
-- Kansas State dumped Texas 24-21 in Manhattan, and that will get #FireCharlie going at full force on Twitter again. The Longhorns just cannot win on the road, falling to 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in three games away from Austin. ... Oklahoma State had some issues early at Kansas, but they pulled away in the second half to win 44-20 and earn the cover as 23-point favorites. Jayhawks side bettors and 'under' (61) bettors were killed in one fell swoop as the Cowboys struck for the game's final score with 5:04 to go.
-- It wasn't pretty, but Colorado posted the 10-5 win at Stanford as the offensive woes for the Cardinal continue. Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey returned to the lineup, but nothing changed for the Stanford offense which was limited to 15 first downs and just 265 total yards, averaging just 3.0 yards per rush. Stanford has dropped three of their past four games and they're 1-3 ATS during the stretch. They have also scored 17 or fewer points in each of the past four outings, and the 'under' is 5-2 in Stanford's seven games this season. For the Buffs, they're an impressive 8-0 ATS this season, and they have two wins straight up as a road underdog. ... On Friday it was Oregon and California doing battle in a game with a total of 90. 'Under' bettors were hurt with a Ducks TD with 3:15 to go in regulation, tying the game at 42 before overtime. The Bears, who squandered a 21-point early lead, held on for the 52-49 win in OT. The Ducks have dropped an un-Oregon-like five straight games, and they're a dismal 0-6-1 ATS in seven games overall heading into their home game against Arizona State next week.
-- Auburn was favored by double digits at home against Arkansas which raised some eyebrows. The Tigers immediately showed why, racing out to a 21-0 after one quarter. The Tigers never looked back, trucking the Razorbacks 56-3 on the Plains to win their third straight, improving to 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. The Tigers are an impressive 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite, too. ... The good news is that Missouri solved their offensive problems by scoring 45 points. The bad news is that they were upended 51-45 by Middle Tennessee. The Tigers have failed to cover in three straight outings.
Mid-Major Report
-- South Florida's chances of a New Year's Bowl appearance are basically next to nil after suffering a shocking 46-30 loss at Temple. The Bulls entered 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS, with only a loss to Florida State, but the Owls made life hard for the Bulls in Philadelphia. It won't be any easier with a home game against Navy on a short week. ... Tulsa rebounded nicely after last weekend's bitter pill at Houston. They roughed up visiting Tulane 50-27 at Skelly, and they have covered in back-to-back games while scoring at least 31 points in five straight games, and six of their seven outings. The 'over' has cashed in five straight for the Golden Hurricane. ... UCF bounced back from their disappointing last-minute loss to Temple last week with a 24-16 win at Connecticut. The Knights are now an impressive 4-1 ATS over their past five outings.
-- North Texas scored the biggest upset of the weekend with a 35-18 win at Army, winning back-to-back road games for the first time closing out the 2013 season with three straight road wins. In fact, before their overtime win at Rice Sept. 24, the Mean Green was 0-14 SU and 3-11 ATS in their previous 14 road outings. ... Charlotte has also won back-to-back road wins for the first time in their brief FBS history after stunning Marshall 27-24 as 8 1/2-point underdogs. The 49ers have covered three straight outings, and the 'under' is 3-0 in the past three for Charlotte. ... Texas-El Paso slapped the brakes on a five-game losing streak with a win at Texas-San Antonio, 52-49. It was just the second cover for the Miners in the past six outings.
-- Ohio scored a 14-10 road win at Kent State for their fourth road cover in four tries this season. It was also the seventh consecutive 'under' result for the Bobcats. ... Miami-Ohio scored their second straight victory and cover with a 40-26 win at Bowling Green. The 'over' was the first for the Redhawks since Sept. 3 after six straight 'under' results. ... Akron has been a bit erratic this season in terms of wins and losses, but they tend to rebound nicely. They were blown out at home by Western Michigan 41-0 last week, but the Zips rebounded with a 35-25 win at Ball State. The Zips have won three straight on the road, and they're 2-1 ATS during the span. They travel to Buffalo next Thursday.
-- Colorado State posted an impressive 42-23 win at UNLV, earning their first road victory in four tries this season. CSU has covered three in a row, and six of the past seven. ... New Mexico routed Louisiana-Monroe 59-17 for their second straight win and cover. More importantly, the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 for the Lobos so far this season. They have scored 31 or more points in six of their seven outings while allowing at least 32 points in five of their seven game.
-- New Mexico State suffered a 22-19 setback at home against Georgia Southern. The fourth try was the charm for the Eagles, who had dropped each of their past three games, all on the road. Georgia Southern has failed to cover in five straight, and six of seven overall. ... Appalachian State cooled off Idaho 37-19, and this game had the biggest bad beat of the weekend (see below). The Vandals have covered three straight, and the 'over' has hit in each outing.
Bad Beats
-- App State bettors laying the 21 were steamed when Idaho found the end zone with :04 left in regulation to cut the Mountaineers lead to 37-19 for the worst backdoor cover in a while.
-- With 3:46 to go and a 51-13 lead, Louisville elected to kick a meaningless 27-yard field goal to make it 54-13. Well, meaningless except for the fact it changed the result from 'under' (64) to 'over'.
-- We have witnessed plenty of late-night bad beats in the Pac-12, and Week 8 provided yet another, although not quite as dramatic as others. Washington State has covering pretty much the entire game, leading 37-21 early in the fourth quarter. But Arizona State posted a 70-yard punt return for touchdown and two-point conversion to cut the Cougs' lead to 37-29. They elected to kick a field goal with 4:36 to go to cut the lead to five, and Washington State ran out the clock and could not get the knockout punch for the cover.
-- The Hawai'i-Air Force game had a total of 58, and the 'under' looked good at 20-13 early in the fourth quarter. The Warriors tied the game with 11:51 in regulation, but there were no more points until overtime. Both teams scored TDs in the first overtime, and Hawai'i scored a TD in the second OT to clinch the over.