Opening Line Report - Week 6
October 3, 2016
Here’s a peek at the early betting action and the thoughts of two Las Vegas oddsmakers on some key games for Week 6 of the college football regular season:
Virginia Tech at North Carolina (-2.5)
North Carolina survived Florida State’s comeback bid Saturday and has lost a total of two regular-season games over the past two seasons. This week, the Tar Heels return home, where they have won nine straight.
Our oddsmakers, though, both flipped the conversation to Virginia Tech.
"(North Carolina is) winning close ones, they’re scoring a lot of points, they’re giving up a lot of points. But that’s not the story here. The story is Virginia Tech," said John Avello, vice president of race and sports and the Wynn, the first book in Las Vegas to post college football lines each week.
The Hokies are 3-1 on the season, the loss coming against Tennessee at Bristol Motor Speedway, 45-24. Their three wins are against Liberty, Boston College and East Carolina. Despite that level of competition, bookmakers are impressed.
Virginia Tech’s Justin Fuente is a "really good coach, and it’s pretty obvious that they’re a team on the rise, and the line says it as well," said Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
While the Wynn took some favorite action after opening UNC -3 on Sunday night and momentarily bumped the number to -3.5, it didn’t take long for it to come back the other way.
"The line is going to come down, not because North Carolina is playing poorly, because they’re not," Avello said. "The players are going to want to play Tech here, thinking they can win this game straight up."
Sure enough, a few hours after we spoke, Avello moved to 2.5, and at least one other book – CG Technology – was dealing 2.
Notre Dame at N.C. State (pick ‘em)
In an indication of how down bettors are on Notre Dame, Avello opened the Irish as 3.5-point favorites only to watch a flood of underdog money move him to a pick ‘em.
"I’m kind of shocked it moved down that far, to be honest with you," Avello said. "N.C. State is 3-1, but the competition has been really, really weak." The Wolfpack lost to East Carolina, and beat William & Mary, Old Dominion and Wake Forest.
When they stepped up in class last year to play teams like Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Mississippi State, they lost every time, Avello pointed out. None of N.C. State’s seven wins last season were against what one would consider a quality opponent.
Despite Notre Dame’s defensive woes, Avello said, "I still disagree with the move. I can see this game coming back the other way."
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Texas, at Cotton Bowl in Dallas
The Wynn opened Oklahoma -9.5, moved to -10.5 later Sunday night and made a half-point adjustment in Texas’ direction on Monday.
Compared to the last three years of the Red River Showdown, this season’s version features a short line. The Sooners have been -16, -16.5, and 13-point favorites in three most recent meetings, but lost two of those games outright and covered the spread in none of them.
If it wasn’t for Texas’ uninspiring performance in its loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday, the spread would have been even shorter, according to Avello. Texas is also dealing with injuries to two running backs, D'Onta Foreman (probable) and Chris Warren (out).
"That loss changed their power rating a few points," Avello said.
The Westgate’s Salmons thought Texas was in an ideal spot on Saturday, as the Longhorns were coming off a bye and facing a Cowboys team that had been an emotional rollercoaster over the past several weeks.
"There was no reason for Texas not to go in there and give them their best shot and win that game," Salmons said, "They played zero defense. .... Texas absolutely imploded. I mean, it was embarrassingly bad. They literally quit at the end of that game."
If you are thinking about taking the points Saturday, you may be cheering alone. Neither bookmaker anticipates much Texas money.
"It’s a one-way number, the way Texas is playing right now," Salmons said of the early line. "They can’t stop anyone. Every team scores 50 points against them. …. Wherever you put the line up, everyone’s going to bet on Oklahoma. It’s going to close 11.5, 12, 13, whatever."
Florida State at Miami (-3)
Miami hasn’t beaten Florida State since 2009 and hasn’t been favored in the series since 2010. But the Hurricanes are undefeated, and the 3-2 Seminoles are having major issues on defense.
"Miami’s been playing great this year. There’s nothing fluky about them so far," Salmons said. "So I would think this is a really good shot for Miami to win a game against Florida State, which they haven’t been able to do in a long time."
Avello is reserving judgement on Miami.
"Miami is 4-0 but hasn’t played a top 30 team yet – unless you want to call Georgia Tech a top 30 team – but this is the real test."
Saturday’s game against their in-state rival is also the beginning of a brutal stretch of schedule for the Hurricanes. The next four weeks bring North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame and Pittsburgh.
As of about 4:30 p.m. ET Monday, nearly every Las Vegas sports book was dealing Miami -3 for this game, although some 2.5s and 2s have flashed on betting boards around town.
Tennessee at Texas A&M (-7)
The line on this SEC clash seesawed during early wagering at the Wynn, which opened Texas A&M -6.5 and was bet to as low as -5.5. Avello said he’s taken bets on both sides.
Running back Jalen Hurd looks like a go for Tennessee.
Vols believers will point to the fact the team is 5-0 and that they are resilient, coming back from off the ropes several times this season, including stunning Georgia with a game-winning Hail Mary on Saturday. Doubters wonder when their luck will run out.
"Tennessee is off back-to-back miracle wins. I don’t know what they have left in their gas tank," Salmons said. "At some point, the miracles are going run out on Tennessee, and this will probably be the week."
Avello, though, thinks the momentum from the win in Athens may carry over to College Station.
"That just propels you going into the next game, a play like that," he said. "This is a very difficult game for A&M. I think this is going to be a close one."
Washington (-8) at Oregon
Washington’s power rating "shot way up" after the Huskies’ 44-6 thrashing of Stanford on Friday night, Avello said, and Oregon has lost three straight. The sizable point spread on next week’s Pac 12 contest is the result.
"When did you ever see Oregon get 8 points at home?," Avello asked. "It just goes to show you, one team has fallen off and there’s a new guy in town."
Avello, though, hinted bettors should be careful with Washington in this spot.
"They were life-and-death at Arizona two weeks prior, and the rest of their schedule is s---. Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State. I like the team, I like the coach (Chris Petersen), but I wouldn’t get too crazy here."
Alabama (-13.5) at Arkansas
While this line didn’t move in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn, other shops put 14s on their boards Monday.
The numbers present a dilemma for bettors: Either lay two touchdowns on the road against a tough SEC team that is traditionally strong as an underdog, or bet against mighty Alabama. Neither option is appealing.
"This game has zero play on it," Avello said. "I mean, there might be a couple grand on the game, but there’s nobody that really touched it, so (sharp bettors) thought the number was right and didn’t know what to do with it."
Added Salmons, "Arkansas is going have a hard time scoring against Alabama. That’s usually the kind of matchup Alabama has a lot of success with, teams that play slow and try to run the ball. They’ll have no chance to run against Alabama. But laying that many points on road is difficult."
If you are inclined to take the point here, Avello offered a strategy to consider.
"If I was going to bet this game and I liked the underdog, I would probably take them in the first half," he said. "You get a little bit more than 7 in the first half, maybe 7.5, and you take a chance that they’re highly motivated, their game plan is intact and maybe they keep it close. Alabama has a way of adjusting in the second half and make good teams look bad."
Early Line Moves
These games moved 2 points or more in the favorite’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.
Temple vs. Memphis
Opening line: Memphis -8
After 23 hours: Memphis -10
Tulane vs. Central Florida
Opening line: UCF -11
After 23 hours: UCF -13
SMU vs. Tulsa
Opening line: Tulsa -13
After 23 hours: Tulsa -17
Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan
Opening line: Toledo -15
After 23 hours: Toledo -17
These games moved 2 points or more in the underdog’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.
Maryland vs. Penn State
Opening line: Penn State -3.5
After 23 hours: Penn State -1
Army vs. Duke
Opening line: Duke -6
After 23 hours: Duke -4
Indiana vs. Ohio State
Opening line: Ohio State -32.5
After 23 hours: Ohio State -30
Notre Dame vs. N.C. State
Opening line: Notre Dame -3.5
After 23 hours: pick ‘em
Bowling Green vs. Ohio
Opening line: Ohio -14.5
After 23 hours: Ohio -12
Air Force vs. Wyoming
Opening line: Air Force -13
After 23 hours: Air Force -10
Georgia vs. South Carolina
Opening line: Georgia -9.5
After 23 hours: Georgia -7.5
Fresno State vs. Nevada
Opening line: Nevada -11.5
After 23 hours: Nevada -9.5
Washington State vs. Stanford
Opening line: Stanford -12
After 23 hours: Stanford -8
October 3, 2016
Here’s a peek at the early betting action and the thoughts of two Las Vegas oddsmakers on some key games for Week 6 of the college football regular season:
Virginia Tech at North Carolina (-2.5)
North Carolina survived Florida State’s comeback bid Saturday and has lost a total of two regular-season games over the past two seasons. This week, the Tar Heels return home, where they have won nine straight.
Our oddsmakers, though, both flipped the conversation to Virginia Tech.
"(North Carolina is) winning close ones, they’re scoring a lot of points, they’re giving up a lot of points. But that’s not the story here. The story is Virginia Tech," said John Avello, vice president of race and sports and the Wynn, the first book in Las Vegas to post college football lines each week.
The Hokies are 3-1 on the season, the loss coming against Tennessee at Bristol Motor Speedway, 45-24. Their three wins are against Liberty, Boston College and East Carolina. Despite that level of competition, bookmakers are impressed.
Virginia Tech’s Justin Fuente is a "really good coach, and it’s pretty obvious that they’re a team on the rise, and the line says it as well," said Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
While the Wynn took some favorite action after opening UNC -3 on Sunday night and momentarily bumped the number to -3.5, it didn’t take long for it to come back the other way.
"The line is going to come down, not because North Carolina is playing poorly, because they’re not," Avello said. "The players are going to want to play Tech here, thinking they can win this game straight up."
Sure enough, a few hours after we spoke, Avello moved to 2.5, and at least one other book – CG Technology – was dealing 2.
Notre Dame at N.C. State (pick ‘em)
In an indication of how down bettors are on Notre Dame, Avello opened the Irish as 3.5-point favorites only to watch a flood of underdog money move him to a pick ‘em.
"I’m kind of shocked it moved down that far, to be honest with you," Avello said. "N.C. State is 3-1, but the competition has been really, really weak." The Wolfpack lost to East Carolina, and beat William & Mary, Old Dominion and Wake Forest.
When they stepped up in class last year to play teams like Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Mississippi State, they lost every time, Avello pointed out. None of N.C. State’s seven wins last season were against what one would consider a quality opponent.
Despite Notre Dame’s defensive woes, Avello said, "I still disagree with the move. I can see this game coming back the other way."
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Texas, at Cotton Bowl in Dallas
The Wynn opened Oklahoma -9.5, moved to -10.5 later Sunday night and made a half-point adjustment in Texas’ direction on Monday.
Compared to the last three years of the Red River Showdown, this season’s version features a short line. The Sooners have been -16, -16.5, and 13-point favorites in three most recent meetings, but lost two of those games outright and covered the spread in none of them.
If it wasn’t for Texas’ uninspiring performance in its loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday, the spread would have been even shorter, according to Avello. Texas is also dealing with injuries to two running backs, D'Onta Foreman (probable) and Chris Warren (out).
"That loss changed their power rating a few points," Avello said.
The Westgate’s Salmons thought Texas was in an ideal spot on Saturday, as the Longhorns were coming off a bye and facing a Cowboys team that had been an emotional rollercoaster over the past several weeks.
"There was no reason for Texas not to go in there and give them their best shot and win that game," Salmons said, "They played zero defense. .... Texas absolutely imploded. I mean, it was embarrassingly bad. They literally quit at the end of that game."
If you are thinking about taking the points Saturday, you may be cheering alone. Neither bookmaker anticipates much Texas money.
"It’s a one-way number, the way Texas is playing right now," Salmons said of the early line. "They can’t stop anyone. Every team scores 50 points against them. …. Wherever you put the line up, everyone’s going to bet on Oklahoma. It’s going to close 11.5, 12, 13, whatever."
Florida State at Miami (-3)
Miami hasn’t beaten Florida State since 2009 and hasn’t been favored in the series since 2010. But the Hurricanes are undefeated, and the 3-2 Seminoles are having major issues on defense.
"Miami’s been playing great this year. There’s nothing fluky about them so far," Salmons said. "So I would think this is a really good shot for Miami to win a game against Florida State, which they haven’t been able to do in a long time."
Avello is reserving judgement on Miami.
"Miami is 4-0 but hasn’t played a top 30 team yet – unless you want to call Georgia Tech a top 30 team – but this is the real test."
Saturday’s game against their in-state rival is also the beginning of a brutal stretch of schedule for the Hurricanes. The next four weeks bring North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame and Pittsburgh.
As of about 4:30 p.m. ET Monday, nearly every Las Vegas sports book was dealing Miami -3 for this game, although some 2.5s and 2s have flashed on betting boards around town.
Tennessee at Texas A&M (-7)
The line on this SEC clash seesawed during early wagering at the Wynn, which opened Texas A&M -6.5 and was bet to as low as -5.5. Avello said he’s taken bets on both sides.
Running back Jalen Hurd looks like a go for Tennessee.
Vols believers will point to the fact the team is 5-0 and that they are resilient, coming back from off the ropes several times this season, including stunning Georgia with a game-winning Hail Mary on Saturday. Doubters wonder when their luck will run out.
"Tennessee is off back-to-back miracle wins. I don’t know what they have left in their gas tank," Salmons said. "At some point, the miracles are going run out on Tennessee, and this will probably be the week."
Avello, though, thinks the momentum from the win in Athens may carry over to College Station.
"That just propels you going into the next game, a play like that," he said. "This is a very difficult game for A&M. I think this is going to be a close one."
Washington (-8) at Oregon
Washington’s power rating "shot way up" after the Huskies’ 44-6 thrashing of Stanford on Friday night, Avello said, and Oregon has lost three straight. The sizable point spread on next week’s Pac 12 contest is the result.
"When did you ever see Oregon get 8 points at home?," Avello asked. "It just goes to show you, one team has fallen off and there’s a new guy in town."
Avello, though, hinted bettors should be careful with Washington in this spot.
"They were life-and-death at Arizona two weeks prior, and the rest of their schedule is s---. Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State. I like the team, I like the coach (Chris Petersen), but I wouldn’t get too crazy here."
Alabama (-13.5) at Arkansas
While this line didn’t move in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn, other shops put 14s on their boards Monday.
The numbers present a dilemma for bettors: Either lay two touchdowns on the road against a tough SEC team that is traditionally strong as an underdog, or bet against mighty Alabama. Neither option is appealing.
"This game has zero play on it," Avello said. "I mean, there might be a couple grand on the game, but there’s nobody that really touched it, so (sharp bettors) thought the number was right and didn’t know what to do with it."
Added Salmons, "Arkansas is going have a hard time scoring against Alabama. That’s usually the kind of matchup Alabama has a lot of success with, teams that play slow and try to run the ball. They’ll have no chance to run against Alabama. But laying that many points on road is difficult."
If you are inclined to take the point here, Avello offered a strategy to consider.
"If I was going to bet this game and I liked the underdog, I would probably take them in the first half," he said. "You get a little bit more than 7 in the first half, maybe 7.5, and you take a chance that they’re highly motivated, their game plan is intact and maybe they keep it close. Alabama has a way of adjusting in the second half and make good teams look bad."
Early Line Moves
These games moved 2 points or more in the favorite’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.
Temple vs. Memphis
Opening line: Memphis -8
After 23 hours: Memphis -10
Tulane vs. Central Florida
Opening line: UCF -11
After 23 hours: UCF -13
SMU vs. Tulsa
Opening line: Tulsa -13
After 23 hours: Tulsa -17
Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan
Opening line: Toledo -15
After 23 hours: Toledo -17
These games moved 2 points or more in the underdog’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.
Maryland vs. Penn State
Opening line: Penn State -3.5
After 23 hours: Penn State -1
Army vs. Duke
Opening line: Duke -6
After 23 hours: Duke -4
Indiana vs. Ohio State
Opening line: Ohio State -32.5
After 23 hours: Ohio State -30
Notre Dame vs. N.C. State
Opening line: Notre Dame -3.5
After 23 hours: pick ‘em
Bowling Green vs. Ohio
Opening line: Ohio -14.5
After 23 hours: Ohio -12
Air Force vs. Wyoming
Opening line: Air Force -13
After 23 hours: Air Force -10
Georgia vs. South Carolina
Opening line: Georgia -9.5
After 23 hours: Georgia -7.5
Fresno State vs. Nevada
Opening line: Nevada -11.5
After 23 hours: Nevada -9.5
Washington State vs. Stanford
Opening line: Stanford -12
After 23 hours: Stanford -8
