Cnotes 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Indiana at Miami
The Pacers look to bounce back from their 99-87 loss to Miami in Game 3 and come into tonight's contest with a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Indiana is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

MONDAY, MAY 26

Game 513-514: Indiana at Miami (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 122.725; Miami 126.343
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 183 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+6 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, May 26

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INDIANA (65 - 33) at MIAMI (64 - 30) - 5/26/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 14-13 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 16-11 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
15 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Monday, May 26

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
INDIANA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing at home against Indiana


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NBA

Monday, May 26

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Game of the Day: Pacers at Heat
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Indiana Heat at Miami Heat (-6.5, 183.5)

Heat lead series 2-1

The Miami Heat placed the on-off switch firmly in the “on” position to take control of the Eastern Conference finals. The Heat will try to keep their energy at that level and earn a commanding 3-1 lead in the series when they host the Indiana Pacers in Game 4 on Monday. The Pacers have appeared to be the dominant team in the series for long stretches in each game but failed to put together the necessary run in the fourth quarter of the last two contests.

The Pacers raced out to a 17-4 lead in the first quarter and were up 15 early in the second in Game 3 before letting Miami up off the mat. “You can’t play around with this team,” Indiana forward Paul George told reporters of the Heat. “I thought we got comfortable at one point early in the game, you know, just being up early. This game is all about runs, and ultimately the team that makes the biggest run or the last run is the team that’s going to win.” That team was Miami with a 12-2 fourth-quarter run to spark Game 2’s 87-83 win and then a 61-45 advantage over Indiana in the second half of Game 3.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Line opened at the Heat -6.5 with a total of 183.5.

INJURY REPORT: Pacers - C A. Bynum (Out/Knee)

ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami got a big boost in the fourth quarter of Game 3 from Ray Allen, who hit four 3-pointers in the period and finished with 16 points. “That’s kind of like my territory,” Allen told reporters. “The flow of the game doesn’t come in my direction early in the game. … But in the fourth quarter, if a guy is guarding me and just thinks I’m here biding time, I’m not. I’m just trying to figure out how I can have an impact.” Allen’s strong game came as a compliment to another solid performance from James, who is averaging 24.3 points on 58 percent shooting in the series.

ABOUT THE PACERS: The concern prior to Game 3 was the health of George, who had to pass concussion protocols before being cleared to play. George never found much of a rhythm offensively while being guarded primarily by LeBron James but still managed to lead the team in scoring with 17 points on 5-of-13 shooting. George was also one of several players dealing with foul trouble. “We didn’t manage our foul trouble well and didn’t manage (the Heat) picking up their defensive intensity well,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “I though we attacked appropriately but didn’t finish plays, and obviously turned it over a little too much and let them get going.”

TRENDS:

*Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
*Over is 11-5 in Heat last 16 Conference Finals games.
*Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Miami.
*Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of bettors are taking the Pacers +6.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, May 26


Favorite continues to roll in Conference Finals

After the underdog was the story in the early stages of the NBA Playoffs, the favorite has been cashing in for basketball bettors of late.

The fave is now 5-1 ATS (against the spread) in the Conference Finals and is 5-0 ATS in the past five games. The Oklahoma City Thunder won Game 3 by a score of 106-97 over the San Antonio Spurs, covering as 2.5-point home faves to extend the fave's streak to five Sunday.

The only dog to cover in the Conference Finals was the Indiana Pacers' 107-96 victory in Game 1 as 1.5-point home dogs.

The Pacers and Heat renew acquaintances Monday evening in Miami with the home team as 6.5-point favorites.

 

[CNOTES]

Game 4 - Pacers at Heat

May 26, 2014

Through the first two rounds of the NBA playoffs, underdogs compiled a 48-23-1 against the spread record. However, things have turned around for the chalk in the conference finals, as favorites own a 5-1 SU/ATS record, capped off by Oklahoma City’s Game 3 victory at home on Sunday over San Antonio. The Eastern Conference Finals is back on display tonight as Miami looks to throw the knockout punch against Indiana following a remarkable rally in Game 3.

The Pacers jumped out to a 17-4 lead in the first quarter of Saturday’s Game 3 at the American Airlines Arena, but the Heat chipped away and chipped away at the deficit. Miami outscored Indiana, 95-70 in the final 40 minutes of the game to secure a 2-1 series lead, as Ray Allen drilled four three-pointers in the fourth quarter to put the contest away. The Heat pulled off the 99-87 as six-point home favorites to improve to 8-4 ATS in the postseason, while not allowing more than 97 points in six home playoff contests.

Following the horrible offensive start for the Heat, Miami still shot a scorching 53% from the floor, led by LeBron James and Dwyane Wade combining for 49 points on 18-of-30 shooting. Past Allen’s 16 points off the bench, there wasn’t much contribution elsewhere for the defending champions in Game 3, as Chris Bosh continued to struggle in this series by scoring just nine points on 4-of-12 shooting. Miami moved to 5-1 to the ‘over’ at home in the playoffs, even though the low-scoring start had ‘under’ bettors feeling the ‘over’ trend would stop in Game 3.

The Pacers lost just their second road game of the playoffs on Saturday, falling to 5-2 SU/ATS away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse in the postseason. Frank Vogel’s team has failed to bust the 95-point mark on the highway in the playoffs, as his club knocked down just 6-of-21 three-point attempts in Game 3. Lance Stephenson and Paul George combined to hit only 1-of-10 from downtown, while George paced Indiana with a team-high 17 points.

Miami has captured eight of the past nine home matchups with Indiana since the second round of the 2012 playoffs, as the Heat has covered six times in this stretch. Dating back to last season’s conference finals, the Heat have won 11 of their last 12 playoff contests at the American Airlines Arena, while compiling an 8-4 ATS mark.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David says to look at the big picture for more money-making opportunities in regards to this series, “The first two rounds of the playoffs watched the underdogs cash at the betting counter and now we’re starting to see the favorites strike back in the conference finals. When we get this late in the season, the numbers are tight and handicapping these matchups are very difficult. While I can’t make a case for either side or the total in Game 4, I would advise to look at some player props.”

David believes to take advantage of Bosh’s struggles in the prop department, “In particular, fading Chris Bosh against the Pacers has been golden and I haven’t seen oddsmakers adjust his total points and rebounds props. They’re still posting a total close to 18 and that’s too high. He doesn’t rebound at all and it’s apparent that he lost confidence in his 3-point shot, going 2-of-12 from distance in this series. I would advise ‘under’ wagers on 16 ½ or higher. I would also look at the ‘under’ in Dwyane Wade too only because the numbers will be inflated after three great performances and I do believe his minutes will catch up to him sooner or later.”

If the Pacers can find a way to steal tonight’s game and send the series back to the Hoosier State tied at 2-2, David advises that you jump on Indiana now, “Bettors should take a look at Indiana on the Adjusted Series Price, which is offering up a great price on the Pacers. Prior to the series, Miami as a 1/4 favorite (Bet $100 to win $25) to win this series and are now listed as a 1/10 (Bet $100 to win $10) favorite. The price on the Pacers is as high as 6/1 (Bet $100 to win $600) heading into Game 4. Miami does lead 2-1 but a win on Monday by the Pacers will even up the series and they do own homecourt advantage.”

The Pacers are just 1-4 SU/ATS the last five road games off a road loss dating back to March, while finishing ‘under’ the total four times in this stretch. The Heat are listed as six-point favorites tonight, while the total is set at 183 ½. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST from South Florida and can be seen on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Pacers (56-26) at Heat (54-28)

Date: May 26, 2014 8:30 PM EDT


MIAMI (AP) - In the 2011 NBA Finals, LeBron James spent too much time for his liking talking about his purported rivalry with an easily excitable guard named Stevenson.

There's a new rival now.

His name sounds the same. Different spelling, though.

Back then, it was Dallas' DeShawn Stevenson. In these Eastern Conference finals, it's Indiana's Lance Stephenson in the foil role. James sees the obvious parallels but isn't interested in stoking the fires - especially with the Heat leading the Pacers 2-1 heading into Monday night's Game 4, one that could allow Miami to put a stranglehold on the series.

'Winning the game is more important,' James said. 'I understand what the main goal is.'

Still, it seems fair to say that Stephenson and James got each other going often in Game 3. When the Pacers finished practice Sunday, Stephenson talked about how he enjoys ruffling the four-time MVP's feathers.

'To me, I think it's a sign of weakness,' Stephenson said. 'He never used to say anything to me. I always used to be the one who said, `I'm going to do something to get you mad.' Now he's trying to do it to me. So I feel like it's a weakness. I feel like I'm doing something right because I'm getting under his skin, but I've definitely got to keep stepping up to the plate and be more aggressive when he does that.'

The way Stephenson sees it, it's a little-brother vs. big-brother sort of scenario.

That's precisely the analogy Pacers coach Frank Vogel broke out on Sunday when talking to his team. Indiana was ousted by Miami in the 2012 playoffs, again in the 2013 playoffs, and now needs to beat the Heat in three of the next four games to avoid that same fate this year.

'The little brother spends his whole life getting beat up by the big brother, getting beaten in sports, sporting events, 1-on-1 basketball and what-not,' Vogel said. 'All those years of getting beat up builds him up to the point where he ultimately takes on the big brother.'

So in Game 4, the Pacers will take on the big brother Heat again - with the knowledge that a 3-1 deficit could be especially dire given how good the Heat have proven to be when they get a close-out opportunity.

No, Monday isn't a must-win for Indiana.

But it probably ranks fairly close to that.

'We're pretty upbeat,' Pacers forward David West said. 'We don't get down on ourselves. The next game is a different game.'

Miami is essentially saying the same sorts of things. The Heat are up 2-1, and surely understand that if it wasn't for some late-game rallying they could be in a 3-0 hole.

Indiana has led for nearly 99 of the 144 minutes played so far in this series, or about 69 percent of the time. Miami has led for just under 37 minutes, or about 26 percent. Somehow, it's the Heat in control after three games.

Go figure.

'Ultimately, you just have to find a way,' Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. 'Our guys, the last two games, it's been very competitive, very close. Our better basketball has been at the end. What we're looking for is more consistency.'

Miami's first-quarter numbers in this series: An average of 19 points on 45 percent shooting.

Miami's fourth-quarter numbers in this series: An average of 26 points on 53 percent shooting.

The finish flourishes have been needed, too.

'Yeah, we haven't played our best game,' James said. 'They probably feel the same way. We haven't started how we want to, how we need to. So we think our best basketball is yet to come.'

Ray Allen gave Miami 16 big points off the bench in Game 3, all in the second half, and that was enough to give James and Dwyane Wade - who combined for 49 on 18 for 30 shooting - the extra help needed to get the Heat over the top and help them erase what was a 15-point deficit.

Stephenson blamed Indiana's turnovers, and the Heat turned 19 of those into 26 points.

So on that point, Stephenson and James probably agree. Everything else, probably not so much, but James wasn't looking to escalate any verbal jousting match Sunday.

'One thing I'm not going to do is give you all a storyline with LeBron and Stephenson,' James said. 'I'm not going to do that. It's the Pacers versus the Heat.'

 

[CNOTES]

Monday, May 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indiana - 8:30 PM ET Miami -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Miami - Over 183 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[kaptain]

give em hell C Notes...........your old Podna Kaptain..............glad to be here with you........lock and load

 

[CNOTES]

AWESOME BRADDA......GLAD YOUR HERE....

Tuesday, May 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -2.5 500

Oklahoma City - Under 207 500

 

[CNOTES]

Game 5 - Heat at Pacers

May 28, 2014

The Pacers poked the beast with their impressive showing in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, as Indiana tries to avoid elimination after losing the last three contests to Miami. The Heat goes for their second four-game winning streak of the playoffs, while seeking its fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals with a victory in one of the next three games.

After splitting the first two games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the Pacers grabbed a 17-4 lead in Game 3, trying to steal back home-court advantage. The Heat outscored the Pacers by 25 points the rest of the way to win 99-87 to cash as six-point favorites for their sixth home victory in six tries in the playoffs. Miami didn’t start slow out of the gate in Game 4, jumping out to an eight-point lead after one quarter, while maintaining a 49-44 advantage at halftime. However, the third quarter is where any thought of a comeback disappeared for the Pacers.

Miami used an 11-4 run to begin the second half and open up a 60-48 lead which it wouldn’t relinquish, aided by seven points from LeBron James. The Heat led by as many as 23 points in the fourth quarter as they cruised to a 102-90 home triumph to cash for the third straight game, this time as six-point favorites. Only three Heat players scored in double-figures, but the most resounding effort came from Chris Bosh, who put up 25 points after scoring a combined 27 points in the first three games of this series. James did his normal damage with 32 points and 10 rebounds, while Dwyane Wade had a quiet 15 points on 4-of-12 shooting from the floor.

The Pacers have many issues to fix if they want to salvage this series, as Roy Hibbert slipped back into his disappearing act by scoring zero points in the Game 4 defeat. The Indiana center snapped a four-game streak of scoring in double-figures, while putting up a donut for the fourth time in the postseason. Lance Stephenson couldn’t back up his trash-talking heading into Game 4, as the Pacers’ outspoken guard was limited to nine points in 32 minutes, while dealing with foul trouble the whole night.

The foul discrepancy was a point of contention for Indiana in Game 4, as the Pacers were whistled for 10 more fouls than Miami (27-17), while the Heat attempted twice as many free throws (34-17). Indiana’s Paul George criticized the officiating following Monday’s contest and was slapped with a $25,000 fine by the league. In Game 1 of this series, the Pacers went to the charity stripe 37 times (made 19), while the Heat tried just 15 free throws as Miami committed 11 more fouls than Indiana.

Chris David says with the venue shifting back to Indiana, expect a better performance from the Pacers, “If you’re handicapping on current form, then you’re lean is to Miami in Game 5. However, there are solid home-away tendencies that would certainly have you leaning to Indiana. Despite losing Game 2 at home to the Heat, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Pacers have gone 9-4 against Miami in the last 13 games played at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. It’s also well known that the Heat have had trouble scoring at the Pacers. During this span, Indiana has held Miami to an average of 83 points per game.”

From a totals standpoint, the ‘over’ barely hit in each of the past two contests, but David believes that we can see an ‘under’ on Wednesday, “If you’ve been betting the ‘over’ in Heat games this postseason, then you’ve been turning a sound profit but you’ve also been earning your money. The Heat have watched the ‘over’ go 10-3 (77%) and of the 10 winning tickets, five of them barely cashed with late buckets, a few just by one point too. The total for Game 5 is hovering around 184 points. For this matchup I would lean to the ‘under’ in the team total for the Heat, which is 93 ½ points. Based on past tendencies for the Heat in this venue and their playoff pace, this should have a great chance of cashing.”

The Pacers have succeeded at home this season off a road loss, winning nine of 11 times in this situation, but it hasn’t come up yet in the playoffs. Tonight, Indiana is listed as a two-point home underdog, going 2-2 SU/ATS in this role, which includes a loss in Game 2 of this series to Miami. Game 5 tips off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

Heat looks to close

May 27, 2014


Miami (65-30) at Indiana (65-34)

Eastern Conference Finals
Game 5 – Miami leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Miami -2, Total: 184

The Heat look to eliminate the host Pacers and advance to the NBA Finals for the third straight season in Wednesday's Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

After a Game 1 victory in which Indiana defeated the Heat by 11 points, Miami has completely taken control of the series with three straight victories. The Heat won Game 2 by four points and have prevailed in two home games by 12 points each, taking Monday's Game 4 by a 102-90 score. The series now shifts back to Bankers Life Fieldhouse where the Pacers will be fighting for their playoff lives after an entire season of positioning themselves with the top seed in the East. Both clubs have a nearly break-even ATS record in this scenario this season with the Heat going 23-22-2 ATS on the road with their opponent at 24-25-1 ATS at home. But Indiana has the 9-5 SU (8-6 ATS) advantage when hosting in this series over the past three seasons. However, Miami is 17-11 SU (15-13 ATS) overall in that timeframe.

The Heat are 9-4 ATS this postseason (4-2 ATS on road), and are also 11-2 ATS this season when playing five or less games in 14 days. But the Pacers are 3-0 ATS this season when playing against a team that has defeated them in three straight games and 19-7 ATS at home when playing four or less games in a 10-day span in the past two seasons. The only injury concern for either team is PF Chris Andersen (thigh), who missed Game 4, but will likely give it a go in Game 5 in Indiana.

The Heat played an outstanding game at AmericanAirlines Arena on Monday with a 102-90 victory. They shot 46.4% FG and 88.2% FT (30-of-34) with only seven turnovers. Now Miami looks to buy itself some extra rest with a Game 5 series-clinching win. SF LeBron James (26.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 5.8 APG this series) played his best game of the series after being called out by Lance Stephenson of the Pacers, who didn’t think much of James’ trash talk in Game 3. James poured in 32 points (13-of-21 FG), 10 rebounds and five assists on Monday, and will continue to aggressively attack the basket as the Pacers were not able to protect the rim on Monday. SG Dwyane Wade (22.0 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG this series) finished with 15 points in the game and also played some outstanding defense on Stephenson. If Wade, who is making 57% FG in the series, can continue to outplay the Pacers' shooting guard, Miami should have no problem finishing Indiana off and advancing to the finals.

PF Chris Bosh (13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG this series) finally showed up in this series on Monday. Bosh was established early by the Heat and was on fire from the outside. The forward finished the game with 25 points (7-of-12 FG, 3-of-5 3PT) and six rebounds, which was quite an improvement from his 9.0 PPG and 4.0 RPG in the first three games versus Indiana. Miami will need Bosh, whose defense on Roy Hibbert was also a major reason the Heat won Game 4, to continue to shoot the ball well if it is going to complete the goal of winning three straight NBA championships. SG Ray Allen (10.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG this series) was the team's top reserve scorer on Monday with nine points and four rebounds, but made just 2-of-8 FG (1-of-5 threes) to drop to 41% FG (44% threes) for the series.

The Pacers fought all year long to get themselves the No. 1 seed because they were confident playing on their home court. Now they must win at home just to keep their season alive. On Monday, the team shot very well from the floor (49% FG, 43% threes), but made only 11-of-17 FT (65%) and committed 14 turnovers with only 18 assists on 35 baskets. Indiana also barely won the rebounding battle (37-34) despite having a superior frontcourt in terms of both size and skill. SG Lance Stephenson (15.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.0 APG this series) made the headlines this week as he opened his mouth and doubted LeBron James.

While James went off in Game 4, Stephenson was held to just nine points (3-of-7 FG) in 32 minutes. Indiana desperately needs its playmaker to get himself going early in Game 5 or it could be out of the game rather early. SF Paul George (19.5 PPG, 5.0 APG, 4.5 RPG this series) had 23 points and seven rebounds in 43 minutes in Game 4, but was rather ineffective until the garbage minutes in the fourth quarter. George must find himself some easy shots early in the game in order to get his confidence up. He can really struggle if he is not seeing the ball go in consistently. The Pacers are also going to need to find some shots for their All-Star C Roy Hibbert (11.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG this series). Hibbert took just four shots in Game 4 and was unable to score a single point in 22 minutes of play. The big man also found himself in foul trouble rather early.

The Pacers will need to get the same type of balance they received in Game 1 if they are going to get themselves back into this series. PF David West (15.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.8 APG in series) continues to be rock-solid for this team with 20 points, 12 rebounds and four assists in Game 4, and PG George Hill (12.8 PPG on 46% FG in series) had his best game of the series on Monday with 15 points (4-of-7 threes) and four assists. That output topped his combined assist total from the first three games of this series when he had three assists and five turnovers.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Playoff Results

May 27, 2014

Betting Results

Conference Finals
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up 7-1 7-1
Against the Spread 7-1 7-1
Total
Over-Under 4-4


Eastern Conference Finals

(E1) Indiana vs. (E2) Miami
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Miami at Indiana (+2, +115) 107-96 Underdog Over (182)
2 Miami (-2) at Indiana 87-84 Favorite Under (184)
3 Indiana at Miami (-6) 99-87 Favorite Over (182.5)
4 Indiana at Miami (-6) 102-90 Favorite Over (183)
5 Miami at Indiana - - -
6 Indiana at Miami - - -
7 Miami at Indiana - - -


Western Conference Finals

(W2) Oklahoma City vs. (W1) San Antonio
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-6) 122-105 Favorite Over (209)
2 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-5) 112-77 Favorite Under (210)
3 San Antonio at Oklahoma City (-2.5) 106-97 Favorite Under (209)
4 San Antonio at Oklahoma City (-2.5) 105-92 Favorite Under (207.5)
5 Oklahoma City at San Antonio - - -
6 San Antonio at Oklahoma City - - -
7 Oklahoma City at San Antonio - - -

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, May 28

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers, 8:30 ET
Miami: 19-8 OVER in a road game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points
Indiana: 31-18 ATS off a road loss

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Wednesday, May 28


Home team perfect ATS in Western Conference Final

The Oklahoma City Thunder evened up the Western Conference Tuesday night with a 105-92 win in Game 4, easily covering the 2-points they were favored by and keeping the home team perfect against the spread in the series.

The home team is now 4-0 ATS in the conference finals and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings overall. Game 5 will be Thursday night in San Antonio.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday, May 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Indiana +1.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Indiana - Over 183.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

Indiana misses 3 free throws in the last 13 seconds.....................to screw the over.....................Loser!@#0

 

[CNOTES]

Spurs ready for pivotal Game 5

May 29, 2014


Oklahoma City (69-30) at San Antonio (72-26)

Western Conference Finals
Game 5 - Series Tied 2-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Antonio -4.5, Total: 206

The Western Conference Finals head back to Texas all tied up as the Thunder and Spurs each try to gain a series edge in Thursday's Game 5.

This series has gone the way of the home team, which has won each of the first four games easily. In the first two contests, the Spurs won by an average of 26.0 PPG while the Thunder took both games at home by an average of 11.0 PPG. On Tuesday night, Oklahoma City came out and put on a show, hitting 51% of its shots in the first half and finishing the game with a 105-92 victory as two-point favorites. San Antonio’s offense was stagnant in the two road defeats, shooting under 40% from the field in each loss. No starter on the Spurs played more than 26 minutes in Game 4, as they were down by too much and were setting up for the next contest.

PG Russell Westbrook and SF Kevin Durant combined for 71 points in Tuesday's win while no player on San Antonio put up more than 14 points. San Antonio will be happy to head back home as it has lost nine straight in Oklahoma City and is 40-10 SU (26-24 ATS) when playing in front of its fans this season. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 29-20 SU (24-24-1 ATS) in their away games over the course of the season.

Including the playoffs, Oklahoma City is now 6-2 (SU and ATS) in this season series to improve to a solid 13-8 SU (14-6-1 ATS) in this matchup over the past three seasons. But during this same timeframe, the Spurs are 7-3 SU (5-4-1 ATS) at home versus the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has gone 53-34 ATS (61%) after having won two of its previous three games in the past two seasons while the Spurs are 124-86 ATS (59%) after a double-digit loss since 1996.

Both teams come into this game with no significant injuries to their rosters.

Oklahoma City has been a great offense all season long, scoring 105.6 PPG (47% FG) throughout the season, including 103.0 PPG (45% FG) in the playoffs. They club has shot well in this series too, hitting at least 46% FG in three of the four games.

SF Kevin Durant (24.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.3 SPG in series) had his best scoring performance of this series in Game 4, netting 31 points on 11-of-22 shooting while adding five rebounds, five assists and three steals. He has been all over the place with his shooting in this round, hitting 50% or more of his shots in two games while going 14-for-35 (40% FG) in the other two.

PG Russell Westbrook (26.5 PPG, 7.3 APG, 5.8 RPG, 2.5 SPG in series) was absolutely unbelievable on Tuesday, going for 40 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and five steals while looking unstoppable as he shot 12-of-24 from the field and 14-of-14 from the charity stripe. Even with his strong shooting performance in Game 4, he is still shooting just 41% in this series.

PF Serge Ibaka (12.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG in series) has made a profound effect in this series since returning from a hamstring injury and has been a force down low with seven blocks in his two games. He has not played much of a role in the offense though, attempting just 15 shots in the two contests while making 10. PG Reggie Jackson (9.8 PPG, 3.3 APG in series) was just 1-for-5 for three points on Tuesday after dealing with a tweaked ankle, and has made just 3-for-11 from long range over the four games.

San Antonio has been one of the most efficient offensive teams all season long with 105.4 PPG on 48.6% FG, and has been just as strong in the postseason with 105.6 PPG on an identical 48.6% FG. The Spurs defense has held opponents to 97.8 PPG on 44.3% FG, including 98.6 PPG on 44.0% FG during the postseason. These playoff defensive numbers have been even more impressive at home (94.4 PPG on 42.5% FG), including limiting the Thunder to just 91.0 PPG on 42.6% FG over the two games in San Antonio this series.

PG Tony Parker (14.8 PPG, 6.3 APG in series) averaged only 11.5 PPG and 4.0 APG in the two losses in Oklahoma City while failing to get to the free-throw line once. He has shot 50% or better in three of the four games in this series, but has nearly as many turnovers (11) as assists (13) over the past three contests.

PF Tim Duncan (16.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG in series) played just 25 minutes in Game 4, making 3-of-8 shots while scoring nine points and adding six rebounds. He has not logged more than 30 minutes in any of the games in this series, and has shot under 42% from the field in each of the past three games.

SF Kawhi Leonard (10.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG in series) has seen his production really drop in this series, and has made just 16-of-40 FG (40%) over the four games. He had 10 points and five rebounds in Tuesday’s loss while on the court for 25 minutes. SG Manu Ginobili (14.3 PPG, 1.3 SPG in series) played only 11 minutes in Game 4, shooting just 2-for-8 while not adding a single assist or rebound in the game.

 

[CNOTES]

Game 5 - Thunder at Spurs

May 29, 2014

Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers has been on fire in the NBA playoffs, going 13-1 (+1,197) in his last 14 games! Catch tonight's guaranteed Game 5 winner of the Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and Spurs right here.

The Spurs seemed to be in control of the Western Conference Finals after grabbing the first two games at home in blowout fashion. But, San Antonio just can’t seem to win at Oklahoma City, losing for the ninth consecutive time at Chesapeake Energy Arena as the Thunder have stormed back to even this series at 2-2. San Antonio is hoping to avoid the same fate as two seasons ago when OKC erased a 2-0 deficit to steal four straight and advance to the Western Conference Finals.

Game 4 turned into a blowout by halftime, as the Thunder took a 58-43 advantage after two quarters and even led by as many as 27 points in a 105-92 triumph to cash as two-point favorites. Gregg Popovich sat his starters in the fourth quarter as the Spurs’ bench actually got them back in the game, cutting the deficit all the way down to 12 in the first minute of the final quarter. However, that’s as close as the Spurs would get as Russell Westbrook scored 13 of his 40 points in the fourth quarter, the second-highest playoff output in his career.

Kevin Durant would provide a bulk of the offense for the Thunder in Game 4 by tallying 31 points, while Serge Ibaka didn’t make the same impact as he did in Game 3, but the Thunder power forward scored nine points and pulled down eight rebounds. For the exception of Tony Parker’s 7-of-12 shooting effort from the floor, the rest of the San Antonio starters struggled as Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, and Danny Green combined to knock down just 7-of-21 attempts from the field for 22 points.

Turning the page to tonight’s Game 5 at the AT&T Center, this is the seventh series in the postseason to be tied at 2-2 after four games. In the past, home favorites were normally a good bet, but not this postseason as home clubs (all favorites) own a dreadful 1-5 ATS record in this situation with the Clippers cashing against the Warriors in the first round as the only ATS win. The Spurs were tied at 2-2 with the Mavericks in the opening round and won Game 5, but failed to cover as 6 ½-point favorites.

After their offense couldn’t get going in Oklahoma City, the Spurs return to the AT&T Center looking to extend their streak of triple-digit scoring outputs at home to eight tonight following a 122-point effort in Game 1 and 112 points scored in Game 2. San Antonio has lost six of eight meetings with Oklahoma City this season, as the only two victories by the Spurs came with Ibaka out of the lineup. The points in the paint advantage swung OKC’s way in the past two games after San Antonio dominated that category in the first two contests, proving the impact that Ibaka has when he faces this Spurs’ squad.

Favorites improved to 8-1 SU/ATS in the conference finals after Indiana’s season-saving victory over Miami last night as one-point ‘chalk.’ VegasInsider.com’s Chris David has the line analysis for Game 5 tonight, “The Spurs opened as 4 ½-point favorites for Game 5, which is a drop from the first two games played in San Antonio and clearly based off the Ibaka injury. You can actually make a case that the line is too high based on the two regular season meetings between the pair from the AT&T Center. San Antonio was favored by three and six points against OKC this season, and Westbrook was out for the Thunder in the second matchup. The oddsmakers have had a good pulse on this series and I would continue to ride the favorite trend until the streak snaps.”

From the totals perspective, David believes that tonight we can see the offense get back on track for the Spurs, “The total for Game 5 has been dropped to 206 and even though the ‘under’ has cashed in the last three games in this series, I feel this is the opportunity that we’ll see the ‘over’ connect. Ibaka’s presence for Oklahoma City has been a tad inflated and I believe a lot of San Antonio’s offensive struggles can be related to shooting, in particular from the outside. In the first two games, the Spurs hit 19-of 40 (47.5%) and just 19-of-53 (35%) in the two games on the road. I expect San Antonio to produce better numbers at home, which has been proven all season, and I also expect the Thunder to carry over their offensive production from the last two games as well.”

San Antonio is pretty much a favorite of between 4 and 4 ½ points depending on where you shop, as the Spurs are 6-0 SU/ATS the last six when laying points at home. Tonight’s game tips off at 9:00 PM EST and can be seen on TNT.

 

[CNOTES]

Spurs look to Game 5 after rout

May 28, 2014


OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Gregg Popovich had seen enough.

With his San Antonio Spurs trailing the Thunder by 25 in the third quarter on Tuesday, he benched the last of his starters. Only one played in the fourth quarter, and that was for just 49 seconds.

When asked about his thought process behind the moves, he simply said, ''Thursday.''

That's when the Spurs host Game 5. Game 4, he rightly figured, was already over.

Russell Westbrook had 40 points and 10 assists, and Oklahoma City beat the Spurs 105-92 to tie the Western Conference finals at two games apiece.

Kevin Durant added 31 points on 11-for-22 shooting. It was his highest-scoring game of the series after the NBA's leading scorer was held to a 22.7-point average in the first three games.

Serge Ibaka added nine points and eight rebounds for the Thunder, who have turned around the series since he returned from an injury that was expected to keep him out for the rest of the postseason.

Ibaka was just one reason for the Spurs' struggles.

''We're just not focused coming out,'' Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard said. ''We're not playing consistently throughout the whole game. We're playing in spurts or increments. We've just got to play the whole game.''

Boris Diaw had 14 points and 10 rebounds, and Tony Parker added 14 points for the Spurs, who blew a 2-0 lead against the Thunder in this round two years ago and are in danger of doing it again.

''I think we shouldn't think like that,'' Parker said. ''Each game is different. Each series. Each year. We worked hard all year to have home court advantage and now it's our job to protect home court.''

Oklahoma City dominated for the second consecutive game after getting blown out in the first two. The Thunder committed just seven turnovers and shot 49 percent from the field.

The Spurs scored the first eight points of the game, but things went downhill from there. A steal and dunk by Westbrook gave the Thunder a 42-32 lead with just under five minutes left in the first half. Back-to-back 3-pointers by Durant pushed Oklahoma City's lead to 50-36.

The Thunder led 58-43 at halftime. Durant scored 22 points and Westbrook added 17 points, eight assists and four steals before the break.

Parker shot 6 of 9 in the first half, but the rest of the Spurs made just 11 of 32 before the break.

A lob from Reggie Jackson to Durant for a two-handed slam bumped Oklahoma City's lead to 60-43. A steal and jam by Ibaka made it 66-49, and a dunk by Westbrook made it 76-49.

The Spurs closed the quarter on an 18-7 run and cut their deficit to 83-67. San Antonio's Matt Bonner made a 3-pointer with 3:31 remaining to trim Oklahoma City's edge to 12, but the Thunder maintained control.

Popovich said winning the next game will not be about adjustments.

''I think we have to play harder,'' he said. ''They're playing more physically than we are and playing with more determination.''

Notes: Jackson started for the second straight game. He sprained his right ankle on a drive to the hoop and left the game with 8:25 left in the first quarter. He returned to start the second quarter. ... Popovich was called for a technical foul with 44.7 seconds left in the first half. ... Thunder C Kendrick Perkins had 10 rebounds. ... The Thunder improved to 5-1 in the playoffs when Westbrook has at least 10 assists. ... Spurs G Manu Ginobili played just 11 minutes and scored five points. ... Thunder G Thabo Sefolosha did not play for the second consecutive game. He started the first two games of the series.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Oklahoma City at San Antonio
The Thunder head back to San Antonio tonight after evening up the series with a 105-92 win in Game 4 and face a Spurs team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Oklahoma City is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 29

Game 519-520: Oklahoma City at San Antonio (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 127.486; San Antonio 128.598
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 202
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+4 1/2); Under




NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, May 29

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, 9:00 ET
Oklahoma City: 53-34 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games
San Antonio: 28-17 OVER after a game where they failed to cover the spread




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 29

Oklahoma City is 6-2 vs Spurs this year, 6-0 when Ibaka plays, 0-2 if he does not; Spurs shot 39.6%/39.8% in last two games, after making 58%, 50% in two series games here, with Ibaka out. OC has now won 12 of last 16 games with San Antonio, is 8-0 in last eight series games played here. Thunder was +17 in turnovers last two games. Nine of last twelve series games stayed under total. Home team covered eight of nine games in this round of playoffs so far. Lot of pressure on Spurs here; they led Thunder 2-0 two years ago, then lost in six games, when they had won 20 games in a row.

Over is 46-35 in playoffs this season, 4-5 in this round..
Favorites are 32-49 in playoffs this season, 8-1 in this round.




NBA

Thursday, May 29

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Oklahoma City
San Antonio is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games


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NBA

Thursday, May 29

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Game of the Day: Thunder at Spurs
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Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-4.5, 206)

Oklahoma City got Serge Ibaka back and suddenly won consecutive games to get back into the Western Conference finals. Now the Thunder look to see if they can keep the momentum going when they visit the San Antonio Spurs in Thursday’s Game 5. San Antonio crushed Oklahoma City by an average of 26 points in the opening two games on its home floor before Ibaka returned from a calf injury and the Thunder turned the tide.

San Antonio let a 2-0 lead get away against Oklahoma City in the 2012 conference finals and is hoping to keep a similar thing from happening this time around. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich waved the white flag in the middle of the third quarter with his team down 27 in hopes of getting veterans Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker enough rest to make a Game 5 turnaround. Thunder forward Kevin Durant can’t explain his team’s sudden switch in fortunes but is aware the task will be tougher in San Antonio. “We’re going to have to ramp it up a little bit more going into San Antonio, but we just focus on game by game,” Durant told reporters on Wednesday. “That’s all we think about.”

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 4.5-point home faves with the total opening 206.

INJURY UPDATE: Thunder - G Reggie Jackson (Questionable, ankle)

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Durant may have be the league MVP but running mate Russell Westbrook was easily the best player on the floor in Game 4. Westbrook had 40 points – three shy of his postseason high set against Miami in the 2012 NBA Finals – to go with 10 assists and five steals in a scintillating performance. “I’m not surprised at all,” Durant told reporters. “I almost expected him to go out there and play at a high level every time he goes out on the floor.” Westbrook played 45 minutes and committed just three turnovers – the Thunder had seven as a team – and helped Oklahoma City to a 21-0 edge in fast-break points.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Popovich was highly disappointed in his club’s Game 4 showing and the effort was so alarming that even soft-spoken forward Kawhi Leonard spoke out. “We were just not focused coming out,” Leonard told reporters. “We’re not playing consistently throughout the whole game. We’re playing in spurts or increments. We’ve just got to play the whole game.” The presence of Ibaka has negated the inside presence edge San Antonio enjoyed in the first two games but that is far from being the only dropoff for the Spurs. “I don’t know what it is,” Duncan said after the defeat, “but we need to fix it quick and go home and try to turn it around.”

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Spurs last six overall.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent of wagers at Consensus are coming in on the Spurs.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 29

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OKLAHOMA CITY (69 - 30) at SAN ANTONIO (72 - 26) - 5/29/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 155-121 ATS (+21.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 127-97 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 79-58 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 70-46 ATS (+19.4 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 124-86 ATS (+29.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 103-85 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-26 ATS (+6.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-8 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
11 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NBA

Thursday, May 29


Pacers win keeps faves hot ATS in conference finals

The Indiana Pacers defeated the Miami Heat 93-90 to extend their best-of-seven series Wednesday night and in doing so kept favorites against the spread hot in the conference finals.

With the Pacers jumping to a 1-point favorite just before Game 6 tipped off, they improved favorites to a combined 8-1 ATS in both the conference finals.

The only underdog win was in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final when the Pacers won 107-96 as 1.5-point dogs.

The San Antonio Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final Thursday night and are currently listed as 4-point favorites.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Playoff Results

May 29, 2014

Betting Results

Conference Finals
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up 8-1 7-2
Against the Spread 8-1 8-1
Total
Over-Under 4-4-1


Eastern Conference Finals

(E1) Indiana vs. (E2) Miami
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Miami at Indiana (+2, +115) 107-96 Underdog Over (182)
2 Miami (-2) at Indiana 87-84 Favorite Under (184)
3 Indiana at Miami (-6) 99-87 Favorite Over (182.5)
4 Indiana at Miami (-6) 102-90 Favorite Over (183)
5 Miami at Indiana (-1) 93-90 Favorite Push (183)
6 Indiana at Miami - - -
7 Miami at Indiana - - -



Western Conference Finals

(W2) Oklahoma City vs. (W1) San Antonio
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-6) 122-105 Favorite Over (209)
2 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-5) 112-77 Favorite Under (210)
3 San Antonio at Oklahoma City (-2.5) 106-97 Favorite Under (209)
4 San Antonio at Oklahoma City (-2.5) 105-92 Favorite Under (207.5)
5 Oklahoma City at San Antonio - - -
6 San Antonio at Oklahoma City - - -
7 Oklahoma City at San Antonio - - -