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Game 1 - Heat at Pacers

May 17, 2014


Miami (62-29) at Indiana (64-31)

Eastern Conference Finals
Game 1
Tip-off: Sunday, 3:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Miami -2, Total: 182

The Pacers host the Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday afternoon with revenge on their minds for what happened in last year’s postseason.

After playing a grueling seven-game series last postseason in the East Finals where Miami prevailed 99-76 in the deciding game, Indiana was able to win two more games than its conference rival this season to capture home-court advantage in this series. During the regular season, these teams split wins SU and ATS with the home team winning all four meetings.

That puts the clubs at an even 12-12 ATS split over the past three seasons, where the Heat hold the 14-10 SU edge. However, when playing at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the Pacers are 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS during that time.

In the past two seasons, Miami is 14-4 ATS after three straight games forcing an opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers and 19-8 ATS in Sunday games. But over this same timeframe, Indiana is 31-19 ATS at home versus good three-point shooting teams (36%+ threes). The club is also 15-7-1 ATS this season when playing with at least two days' rest.

The Heat are mildly concerned with SG Dwyane Wade's hand injury, but he is expected to start on Sunday. The Pacers have no significant injuries.

The Heat advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals after defeating both the Bobcats and Nets in dominating fashion with a sweep, and five-game series win, respectively. Miami is 6-3 ATS during its 8-1 SU mark this postseason, and has scored 99.6 PPG on 48.8% FG, while allowing only 92.2 PPG on 45.8% FG. Now it faces an Indiana team that has really had to battle in order to make it to this point.

SF LeBron James (30.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) was absolutely dominant in his past three games for Miami with 35.3 PPG (57% FG), 7.7 RPG and 4.0 APG. During the regular season, James averaged 28.8 PPG and 9.3 RPG against the Pacers.

Fortunately for James, he will not be the only source of offense for his team, as SG Dwyane Wade (17.9 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) finally started to look like his former self in Game 5 against the Nets with 28 points in that series-clinching win. He also averaged 21.3 PPG in three games against the Pacers this season, and will have a very intriguing matchup with Lance Stephenson in this series.

Miami will really need PF Chris Bosh (14.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.6 BPG in playoffs) to step his game up in this series, as he will be going up against a very talented Pacers frontcourt. During the regular-season series, Bosh tallied only 11.3 PPG (43% FG) and 5.0 RPG.

The Pacers have been up-and-down for this entire postseason, but after being on the brink of elimination to the eighth-seeded Hawks, they are 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS). But their offense has scored just 91.4 PPG on 44.4% FG during these playoffs, including 87.6 PPG on 44.3% FG over the past five games. However, the defense remains outstanding, as Indiana has limited postseason opponents to 89.8 PPG on 40.4% FG, including 83.8 PPG on 42.7% FG in the past five contests.

In the Pacers' close-out win over the Wizards, SG Lance Stephenson (13.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.8 APG in playoffs) had 17 points, eight assists and five rebounds in 41 minutes. Stephenson will be extremely important to Indiana in this series, as he has the chance to really give the Pacers an advantage by outplaying Dwyane Wade at the shooting guard position. During the regular season, Stephenson averaged 12.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 5.3 APG against Miami.

PF David West (14.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) had one of the best performances of his career in the Game 6 win over the Wizards with 29 points, six rebounds and four assists, while hitting clutch jumpers nearly every time the Pacers gave him the ball down the stretch. West was great against Miami in the regular season too, averaging 17.8 PPG and 7.3 RPG in 32.8 MPG.

However, the most important player for the Pacers is superstar SF Paul George (21.9 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 3.8 APG). George has been wildly inconsistent in these playoffs though, as after having 39 points in Game 4, George scored just 15 in Game 5 and 12 in Game 6. Indiana will need him to be aggressive and on top of his game offensively.

C Roy Hibbert (8.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG in playoffs) will need to be aggressive as well for Indiana. Hibbert has either been invisible in these playoffs or a major contributor, it just depends on the mood he wakes up in. In his team's past five wins, Hibbert has averaged a robust 16.6 PPG (62% FG), 7.4 RPG and 3.0 BPG, but in Indiana's five losses this postseason, the 7-foot-2 All-Star has averaged a pathetic 3.2 PPG (28% FG), 2.4 RPG and 0.8 BPG.
 

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Game 1 - Thunder at Spurs

May 17, 2014


Oklahoma City (67-28) at San Antonio (70-24)

Western Conference Finals - Game 1
Tip-off: Monday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Antonio -4.5, Total: 209

The final stage on the road to the NBA Finals is set, as the Western Conference Finals begins on Monday night with the Thunder visiting the Spurs.

After an exciting playoffs thus far, the top two seeds in the West have made it to the finals. The path has been tough though, as Oklahoma City went to seven games in its opening series against the defensive-minded Grizzlies and then needed six games to finish off the offensively talented Clippers. Overall in the postseason, the Thunder have gone 8-5 SU and 7-5-1 ATS while averaging a solid 104.5 PPG (45% FG).

San Antonio has also had difficulties getting to this points with a seven-game series to open the playoffs against the Mavericks, before an easier handling of the Trail Blazers in five games. The Spurs had gone 1-6 ATS in their first-round games but then went 4-1 ATS in the second round, defeating Portland by an average of 19.5 PPG in their four wins. Their offense has been extremely efficient so far in the playoffs, scoring 105.5 PPG (49.3% FG), while their defense has allowed just 98.7 PPG (43.7% FG).

Overall on the season, Oklahoma City has gone 29-18 SU (24-22-1 ATS) when playing on the road, including 4-2 SU (4-1-1 ATS) over the first two rounds. San Antonio, on the other hand, are 38-10 SU (24-24 ATS) at home this season and are 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) in the playoffs. The Thunder have owned this series recently, sweeping their four meetings (SU and ATS) in this regular season by a sizable margin of 9.3 PPG. They are now 11-6 SU (12-4-1 ATS) against the Spurs over the past three seasons.

Bettors should take notice that Oklahoma City is 53-32 ATS (62%) after having won two of its previous three games over the past two seasons, but San Antonio is 108-73 ATS (60%) after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1996. P

F Serge Ibaka (calf) for the Thunder has been ruled 'out' for the postseason while Spurs PG Tony Parker (hamstring) is probable for this game.

The Thunder really struggled offensively in their first-round series (102.1 PPG on 43.5% FG and 32.4% threes), but scored 107.2 PPG (47.6% FG and 34.3% threes) in the series win over Los Angeles.

SF Kevin Durant (31.4 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) has put up 30+ points in 9-of-13 postseason games and went for 39 points on 12-of-23 shooting while adding 16 rebounds, five assists and two blocks in Game 6 against the Clippers. He was also amazing from the free-throw line, making 58-of-66 (88%) from the charity stripe in the second round. Durant lit up San Antonio for 26.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 3.8 APG during the regular-season sweep, but also committed 6.0 TOPG.

PG Russell Westbrook (26.6 PPG, 8.4 APG, 8.0 RPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) also played well against the Spurs this season with 21.3 PPG, 7.3 APG and 2.0 SPG in three meetings, but had his worst game of the second round in Thursday's Game 6, netting 19 points on just 4-of-15 FG with 12 assists and two steals. Despite the poor shooting performance in the contest, Westbrook still made an impressive 49% from the field in the semifinals.

PG Reggie Jackson (10.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG in playoffs) has scored in double-digits in three of the past four games and has played 25+ minutes in each of those contests. C Stephen Adams (3.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) had a double-double (10 points, 11 rebounds) in Game 6 as he played for the injured Serge Ibaka. His minutes will be increased for the remainder of the playoffs.

The Spurs dominated the Blazers in their five-game series, scoring 108.8 PPG (48.8% FG) against them while allowing just 95.4 PPG (41.8% FG). Although they had seven players average double-figures in the season series with Oklahoma City, San Antonio managed just 96.8 PPG on 44.2% FG in the four defeats.

Star PG Tony Parker (19.3 PPG, 4.9 APG in playoffs) left Game 5 of the second round with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, but is expected to be fine for Monday’s game. He has often been the main source of scoring for the Spurs in this postseason, posting 20+ points in 6-of-12 games.

PF Tim Duncan (15.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG in playoffs) averaged just 13.8 PPG in the second round and shot only 46% from the field after hitting 58% FG in the opening round. The 38-year-old has also upped his minutes in the playoffs (33.8) from the regular season (29.2 MPG). Both Parker (20.5 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Duncan (14.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG) played well versus the Thunder this season, but didn't get much help from teammates.

SF Kawhi Leonard (14.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) was huge in the second round, averaging 17.0 PPG and 2.8 SPG while putting up a big effort in the series-clinching game on Wednesday with 22 points, seven rebounds and five steals. Leonard was efficient all-around in the series, shooting 56% from the field and 53% from three-point range.

SG Manu Ginobili (13.9 PPG, 4.3 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) had just 8.6 PPG against the Trail Blazers while making just 29% FG, including 2-of-14 threes.

C Tiago Splitter (9.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) had one double-double in the second round after doing so three times in the first round.
 

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Heat, Pacers eager for next battle

May 17, 2014

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Indiana and Miami spent a whole season hearing about the rematch.

On Sunday, the two Eastern Conference heavyweights will meet in the most intriguing fight of the year.

There is the possibility of a head-to-head matchup between the world's best player, LeBron James, and the NBA's next young superstar, Paul George. There are battle lines drawn between Miami's perimeter shooters and Indiana's tough inside guys. There is history with Miami eliminating Indiana each of the past two seasons despite the Pacers pushing the Heat further than anyone expected both times, and, of course, everyone wants to see if the young challengers will derail Miami's quest for a third straight NBA championship.

It's no wonder this is the most anticipated matchup of the playoffs.

''Two best teams in the Eastern Conference. It's that simple,'' James said. ''I mean both teams defend at a high level, both teams share the ball, both teams get into the paint, both teams have a desire to win, so that's why it's been equal.''

It's taken three years to reach this point.

In the second round in 2012, the Pacers took a 2-1 lead only to see Miami rebound with three straight wins before winning the first title with James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

Last year, Indiana surprised everyone by pushing the Heat to the brink before faltering in a Game 7 loss as the Heat won a second straight crown.

This season, the Pacers made it clear from the start they wanted the No. 1 seed to assure Miami had to play in Indy if there was a Game 7. That long slog didn't end until the third-to-last night of the regular season, and it's the reason they'll play Game 1 of this best-of-seven series at home.

Still, most observers consider Miami the favorite and with good reason. The Heat swept Charlotte in the first round and beat Brooklyn 4-1 in the second.

Indiana, meanwhile, has been tested. It had to win the last two games to beat Atlanta 4-3 in the first round, beat Washington 4-2 after failing to clinch the series at home and had to block out all the outside distractions emanating from their second-half swoon. And for a change, the Pacers don't seem to mind what's being said.

''I think we like being the underdogs,'' Lance Stephenson said. ''We like when everybody is talking about us. I think it makes our game a little bit better. It makes us want to go out and play harder, so I like being the underdog and everybody talking about us and trying to bring us down but we stay together as a unit, stay poised in the locker room. It just makes us stronger.''

---

Here are five more things to watch in this series:

BIG ROY: Nobody has been more inconsistent in these playoffs than Roy Hibbert, and yet nobody may be more crucial than Hibbert in this series. A year ago, the All-Star center caused so many problems that Miami signed injury-prone Greg Oden. After an abysmal start to the playoffs, Hibbert regained his footing against Washington. But if the Pacers are going to win this series, they need Hibbert to play well every night.

SMALL BALL: Hawks guard Jeff Teague thought his team provided the blueprint to beating Indiana. Atlanta stretched Indiana's defense by using five 3-point shooters, and when the Wizards copied the approach and knocked down shots, that, too, gave Indiana trouble. Will Miami go small this time? Perhaps, and it may be one way to make Hibbert less of a factor, too.

HOLDING AT HOME: Indiana finished the regular season with the best home record in the league (35-6). It hasn't helped the Pacers at all in the playoffs. Indiana is 3-4 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, giving away home-court advantage Game 1 losses in each of the first two series. Indiana knows it can't do that this time. ''We can't allow ourselves to come out flat,'' George said. ''Whatever it is, we've got to find it and come out with energy- treat this one like it's Game 7.''

WADING THROUGH: Miami played it safe with Wade all season, giving his problematic knees extra rest so he could excel in the playoffs. So far, that decision has paid dividends. He has played in all nine games, averaged 17.9 points and 4.0 assists while shooting 50 percent from the field. If Wade continues playing this way, it could spell trouble for Indiana. But this may be his biggest challenge.

DE-FENSE: There is a lot of star power in this series, but ultimately, it will come down to defense. Indiana had one of the league's stingiest defenses all season. Not surprisingly, the Pacers have won in the postseason, too, when they've been solid defensively. Miami might not have the defensive reputation of the Pacers, but they've played well enough to win eight of nine playoff games - and good enough to have beaten the Pacers in their last two playoff series.
 

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Dunkel


Miami at Indiana
The Pacers open up their Eastern Conference finals series at home today where they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games versus the Heat. Indiana is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 18

Game 501-502: Miami at Indiana (3:30 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.591; Indiana 124.659
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 3; 181 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 18


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MIAMI (62 - 29) at INDIANA (64 - 31) - 5/18/2014, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 12-12 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 14-10 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
13 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, May 19

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OKLAHOMA CITY (67 - 28) at SAN ANTONIO (70 - 24) - 5/19/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 153-119 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 125-97 ATS (+18.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 77-58 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 67-49 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 101-83 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-6 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 18


Home side won all four Miami-Indiana games this season; Heat beat the Pacers in seven games in LY's playoffs, but they had home court edge in Game 7- they don't this year. Heat lost last four visits to Indiana by 7-6-1-12 points. Five of last seven series games went over. Miami is 8-2 in playoffs, 3-1 on road; they're 6-4 as favorite in playoffs. Indiana is 8-5 in playoffs, 4-0 vs spread when getting points. Under is 29-19 in Pacers' home games this season.

Over is 42-30 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 24-48 in playoffs this season.




NBA

Sunday, May 18


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Trend Report
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3:30 PM
MIAMI vs. INDIANA
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games at home
Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games



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NBA

Sunday, May 18


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Game of the Day: Heat at Pacers
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Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (+2.5, 181)

The Indiana Pacers have been waiting a year for a second chance at the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference finals after falling in seven games last spring. The Pacers had a rocky road getting back but will finally get their shot at the Heat when they host Game 1 on Sunday. Miami cruised through the first two rounds in a total of nine games while Indiana needed seven games to sneak past No. 8 seed Atlanta in the first round before fumbling past Washington in six.

The Pacers declared before the season that their intention was to secure the best record in the East to ensure that another seventh game against the Heat would be on their home court and stumbled into just that when Miami took its foot off the gas in the final week of the regular season. “Everything is behind us,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “Like we said when we started the playoffs, (first-half record) 33-7 means nothing, How we struggled down the stretch and took a lot of criticism, that means nothing. That’s behind us and this is where we wanted to be.” Miami is gearing up for another physical battle and is not intimidated by starting on the road.

TV:
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY:
The Heat opened as 2-point favorites, but were quickly bet to +2.5 and the total opened at 181 and has remained steady.

INJURY REPORT:
Pacers - Andrew Bynum (Out, knee)

ABOUT THE HEAT:
Miami crushed Indiana 99-76 in Game 7 at home last season, putting an exclamation point on a back-and-forth series in which neither team managed consecutive wins. LeBron James averaged 29 points in that series and is coming off a semifinals against Brooklyn in which he averaged 30 points on 57 percent shooting. Chris Bosh hit a key 3-pointer in Game 4 against the Nets but is ready to get back to the physical challenge of the Pacers. “It’s back to a wrestling match now,” Bosh told ESPN.com. “For the latter half of the season, that’s how we’ve been playing. So for us, I think it will be a smooth transition.” Heat forward Udonis Haslem is expecting to get more time against a bigger Indiana front line and even center Greg Oden could be of use.

ABOUT THE PACERS:
Indiana wanted the matchup with the Heat but hasn’t been very impressive on its homecourt in the postseason. The Pacers dropped two at home to the Hawks in the first round and two to the Wizards in the second, including an embarrassing 102-79 Game 5 loss when they had a chance to clinch the series. David West picked the team up in the clinching game against Washington with a postseason-high 29 points, including eight in the decisive run to end the game. “It’s only going to get tougher,” West told reporters. “We’ve been talking about this series all year. We’ve had a different path than (Miami) had, but we’re here.”

TRENDS:

*Pacers are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall
*Over is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest
*Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings
*Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Indiana

CONSENSUS:
69 percent bettors are on the Heat -2.5.



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NBA

Sunday, May 18


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Betting trends for the NBA's conference finals
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It may not have gone exactly according to plan, but the top-two teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences will do battle for spots in the NBA Finals.

Here are three betting trends to keep an eye on as the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder look to take the next step in their quest to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy:

Points A-Plenty

Over the previous four years, only one conference final series has trended to the Under; Boston and Orlando went 2-4 O/U in the 2010 Eastern Conference final thanks in large part to the Celtics' stifling defense. The other seven series in that span are a combined 26-14 O/U, including a 14-7 mark in the four Western Conference championship series. Three of the four remaining teams trended Over during the regular season; only the Pacers (35-44-3) favored the Under.

Long Series? No Problem

The Miami Heat have found themselves having to go the distance in back-to-back conference finals, but that didn't affect their ability to perform in the Finals. The Heat rolled to Game 7 victories in their previous two East finals by an average of 18 points, then went on to win the championship both times. It helped that Miami wasn't tested in either of its first two rounds the past two seasons; it needed 11 games to reach the conference final in 2012 and just nine games last season.

Fast Start = Slight Edge

Winning the first quarter is by no means a guarantee of a victory in the conference finals, but it certainly helps. Teams that outscore opponents in the opening 12 minutes are 25-19-2 in the conference championships, and have posted winning overall records in all four conference final series spanning the previous two years. Outliers punctuated the two seasons before that; teams seizing the lead after the first quarter went just 2-8 in 2011 after posting an absurd 9-2-1 mark in 2010.
 

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Short Sheet

Sunday, May 18


Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers, 3:35 ET
Miami: 17-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs
Indiana: 37-54 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
 

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Posted in MLB forum by mistake I believe...

05-18-2014, 12:34 PM
Sunday, May 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 3:30 PM ET Indiana +2 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Indiana - Under 181.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
 

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Yes it was posted in MLB forum by mistake i just caught that.......thanks AIR
 

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Dunkel


Oklahoma City at San Antonio
The Spurs open up their Western Conference finals series at home tonight against a Thunder team that is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games against San Antonio. Oklahoma City is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

MONDAY, MAY 19

Game 503-504: Oklahoma City at San Antonio (9:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 123.499; San Antonio 125.755
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 203
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+5 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, May 19


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OKLAHOMA CITY (67 - 28) at SAN ANTONIO (70 - 24) - 5/19/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 153-119 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 125-97 ATS (+18.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 77-58 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 67-49 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 101-83 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-6 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 19


Oklahoma City is without big man Ibaka for rest of playoffs, a big loss; Thunder beat San Antonio in six games in playoffs two years ago, after losing first two games- they've won last five overall vs Spurs, winning all four meetings this season- they're 10-2 in last 12 series games, with six of last eight staying under total. Thunder is 4-2 on road in playoffs, with losses by 3-2 points. Spurs are 6-1 at home in playoffs, 4-3 vs spread.

Over is 43-30 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 24-49 in playoffs this season.




NBA

Monday, May 19


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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games when playing San Antonio
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City


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NBA

Monday, May 19


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Game of the Day: Thunder at Spurs
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Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, 209)

Tony Parker will be in the lineup when the San Antonio Spurs open the Western Conference finals against the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday. Parker suffered a hamstring injury in Wednesday’s series-clinching victory over the Portland Trail Blazers in the conference semifinals and participated in practice on Sunday and pronounced himself ready afterward. The Thunder won all four regular-season meetings with the Spurs but will be without valuable power forward Serge Ibaka (calf) for the series.

Oklahoma City standout Kevin Durant posted nine 30-point outings while averaging 31.4 points during the first two rounds of the postseason and is hoping to lead the Thunder past San Antonio in the conference finals for the second time. Oklahoma City, which is the West finals for the third time in four seasons, defeated the Spurs in six games in 2012 to reach the NBA Finals for the lone time since the franchise relocated from Seattle. San Antonio swept the Memphis Grizzlies in four games in last season’s conference finals before falling to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. The Spurs are hoping their vaunted veteran trio of power forward Tim Duncan, guard Manu Ginobili and Parker will hold up for another dash to the finals.

TV:
9 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY:
Pinnacle Sports opened the Spurs as 4.5-point home faves, but that has since moved to -5.5. The total opened 209, dropped to 208.5 and rebounded back to 209.

INJURY REPORT:
Thunder - F Serge Ibaka (out, calf). Spurs - PG Tony Parker (Probably, hamstring).

ABOUT THE THUNDER:
Beating the Spurs without Ibaka will be a challenge and rookie Steven Adams and veteran Nick Collison will be asked to plug the gap. It is a huge hole to fill considering Ibaka averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds and four blocked shots during Oklahoma City’s season sweep of San Antonio. Adams played 40 minutes in the series-clinching victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, posting a double-double of 10 points and 11 rebounds as he displayed that he can do more than be an antagonizer. Collison averaged 11.2 minutes during the first two rounds of the playoffs and could double that amount against the Spurs.

ABOUT THE SPURS:
Parker addressed San Antonio’s problems with the Thunder this season on Sunday and expressed that the club’s ball movement has to improve. “We need to execute a lot better, because against them you can’t go half-speed,” Parker told reporters. “You have to go full speed and we have to be perfect because they are younger than us and they’re more athletic than us, so everything has to be more perfect.” San Antonio will also be looking for another strong series from small forward Kawhi Leonard, who averaged 17 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.8 steals and made 9-of-17 3-point attempts in the five-game series against Portland.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Spurs last seven Conference Finals games.

CONSENSUS:
53 percent of Consensus wagers are on the Thunder.
 

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Monday, May 19


Underdog cashes in on hardwood yet again

With the Indiana Pacers prevailing 107-96 in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Finals series with the Miami Heat, the underdog proved to be money in the bank yet again.

The Pacers closed as 1.5-point home dogs and with the win against the spread, the underdog improved to 58-28-2 (67.4 percent) in the NBA Playoffs. Also, with the cover, the home dog has now posted a record of 12-7-1 ATS (63.2 percent) thus far in the playoffs.

The Western Conference Finals get underway Monday as the Oklahoma City Thunder are 5.5-point road dogs at the San Antonio Spurs.


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NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, May 19

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, 9:05 ET
Oklahoma City: 37-17 OVER after a win by 6 points or less
San Antonio: 22-9 OVER after allowing 85 points or less
 

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Monday, May 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oklahoma City - 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma City +5.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Antonio - Over 208.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
 

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Pacers go for 2-0 lead

May 19, 2014


Miami (62-30) at Indiana (65-31)

Eastern Conference Finals
Game 2 - Indiana leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Miami -2.5, Total: 184

The Heat look to even up the Eastern Conference Finals in Tuesday's Game 2 to a Pacers team that had complete control of the series opener right from the opening tip.

Indiana got off to an early start on Sunday, led by double-digits at halftime and never looked back in a 107-96 victory as a 1.5-point underdog in the contest. Although Miami made a strong 51% FG in the loss, the club hit just 26% threes (6-of-23) and 67% FT (10-of-15), which was much worse than the 52% FG, 42% threes (8-of-19) and 78% FT (29-of-37) from its opponent. The Pacers also dominated the glass with a 38-29 rebounding advantage, while holding the Heat to only four offensive boards. With Sunday's outcome, Indiana is now 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS over the past three seasons when hosting Miami. Overall during this timeframe, the Heat hold a 14-11 SU advantage, while the Pacers are 13-12 ATS in those contests. These teams are very evenly matched and play each other extremely tough nearly every time they step on the floor.

Both teams have positive betting trends for Game 2, as over the past two seasons, Miami is 16-5 ATS (76%) in road games after pulling down five or less offensive rebounds, and is also 26-11 ATS (70%) revenging a same-season loss. However, Indiana is up against a team that is 9-18 ATS (33%) after two or more consecutive overs this season. The Pacers also happen to be 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons after two straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. The only significant injury for either team is Indiana reserve SG Evan Turner, who missed Game 1 with strep throat, but he is expected to play on Tuesday.

The Heat have not been a great road team this season at 25-21 SU (22-22-2 ATS), and although they seemed unfazed by losing home-court advantage during the regular season, the result of Game 1 will surely have them panicking at least a little. Miami came out and looked rather flat from the start, never having control of the game. Outside of SF LeBron James (29.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) and SG Dwyane Wade (18.8 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG in playoffs), the Heat got very little help from their remaining starters. Both stars had nearly identical offensive games with James scoring 25 points on 11-of-18 FG and Wade pouring in a game-high 27 points on 12-of-18 FG, but finished with game ratings of minus-13 and minus-9, respectively. James was at his best when he was attacking the rim, but the Pacers did a good job of collapsing and forcing the other Heat members to beat them. James will need to be more aggressive and might have to force the agenda just to get himself some more shot attempts in Game 2. Wade scored a lot of his points in garbage time, but he did look solid offensively. He had trouble on the other side of the ball with his matchup with Lance Stephenson.

Miami will have little to no chance if PF Chris Bosh (14.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) is not giving them anything offensively. Bosh was miserable all Game 1, finishing with just nine points (4-of-12 FG, 0-of-5 threes), two rebounds and a game-worst rating of minus-16. Miami can’t afford to have its only true big man struggling to rebound like Bosh did, and he also is going to need to knock down his open jumpers. PF Chris Andersen (6.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) played some excellent minutes on Sunday, finishing with 14 points (6-of-7 FG), four rebounds and two blocks in 19 minutes. Andersen gave the Heat everything that Bosh didn’t on the defensive end and the glass. He will need to continue to bring some energy to Miami if they are going to tie up this series. SG Ray Allen (9.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG in playoffs) also contributed big minutes off the bench with 12 points, five boards and four assists, which helped make up for the horrible game that starting PG Mario Chalmers (9.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG in playoffs) had in Game 1. In 37 underwhelming minutes, Chalmers scored just six points (2-of-9 FG, 1-of-4 threes) with four fouls and a minus-15 rating. He did run the offense effectively though with five assists and zero turnovers.

The Pacers have waited all season to play the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, and in Game 1 they looked like a team that is ready to reach the NBA Finals with all five starters scoring at least 15 points and posting a double-digit rating. Now they must bring the same focus to Game 2 to maintain home-court advantage. SG Lance Stephenson (13.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 4.1 APG in playoffs) really set the pace for Indiana on Sunday, finishing with 17 points (8-of-12 FG), eight assists and four rebounds in 41 minutes. Stephenson was on fire shooting the ball and he also played excellent defensively. SF Paul George (22.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.2 SPG in playoffs) was also superb on both ends of the floor for the Pacers. George finished with 24 points (7-of-13 FG, 3-of-6 threes), seven assists and four rebounds while also playing some pesky defense against LeBron James.

C Roy Hibbert (9.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG in playoffs) looked more like the guy that was an All-Star in the Eastern Conference than the player who was a liability on the court towards the end of the season. The big man finished with 19 points (5-of-13 FG, 9-of-13 FT), nine rebounds, three assists and a game-best +19 rating in 39 minutes of play. If Hibbert can continue to give the Pacers a source of low-post scoring, Miami will struggle in the series as it does not have the size to stop Indiana inside. PF David West (14.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 4.3 APG in playoffs) has been playing out of his mind the past two games for Indiana. After scoring 29 points in the closeout win over the Wizards, West had 19 points (8-of-11 FG), seven rebounds and three assists in Game 1 against the Heat. West has been shooting very well from mid-range and scoring rather easily in the post due to the Heat’s lack of size. If West can continue scoring like he has, the Pacers could be advancing to the NBA Finals.
 

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Game 2 - Heat at Pacers

May 20, 2014


The Heat has never fallen behind 2-0 in a playoff series since LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined the roster in 2010, as Miami is 3-0 in this situation heading into tonight’s Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Indiana. The Pacers set the tone early in Sunday’s series opener, eyeing the Heat after getting eliminated by Miami in each of the last two postseasons.

Finally armed with home-court advantage, Frank Vogel’s team jumped out of the gate in Game 1 to a 30-24 edge after one quarter, the highest point total in the opening 12 minutes of the playoffs for Indiana. The Pacers increased the lead to double-digits at halftime, 55-45, while building the advantage as high as 19 in a 106-97 triumph to cash as two-point underdogs. Indiana improved to 5-0 straight-up and against the spread in the ‘dog role this postseason, while receiving points at home for the first time in the playoffs.

The Pacers topped the 100-point mark for just the second time in the playoffs, while winning a series opener for the first time after falling to the Hawks and Wizards in previous Game 1’s. All five Pacers scored in double-digits, led by Paul George’s 24 points, while David West and Roy Hibbert each chipped in 19 points to represent the Indiana frontcourt. C.J. Watson chipped in 11 points off the Pacers’ bench, while Indiana attempted 22 more free throws than Miami (37-15).

The Heat shot the ball well from the field (51%), but James and Dwyane Wade did the heavy lifting by combining for 52 points, while Bosh was limited to just nine points. For the second straight game, Miami struggled from downtown, hitting only 6-of-23 three-pointers, including an 0-for-5 effort from Bosh, who drilled the go-ahead trey in the Game 4 victory at Brooklyn in the second round.

Miami has lost five straight visits to Bankers Life Fieldhouse, including all three trips to the Hoosier State this season. However, Erik Spoelstra’s team has been exceptional off a loss in the postseason the last few years, posting a 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS record since the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals off a defeat. This is the fourth postseason for the Big Three in Miami, as this team has lost consecutive road games just twice, coming to Boston in 2012 and Dallas in the 2011 Finals.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David reminds us that taking the points has been the way to go in the playoffs, “This year’s postseason has seen underdogs cash at the betting counter and favorites advance on the hardwood. That trend continued in this matchup as the Pacers captured Game 1, yet the Heat are still favored in Game 2 and in the series. It appears that Indiana still hasn’t earned the respect of the betting public and I feel that’s a mistake. The NBA is all about matchups and regardless of what you’ve seen in the last couple months from both clubs, you can’t deny that Indiana is better this season and Miami is nowhere close to the squads that won the last two championships.”

The Heat opened this series at -440 (Bet $440 to win $100), but that number has dropped to -200 following the Game 1 loss. Meanwhile, the Pacers have dropped from +350 (Bet $100 to win $350) down to +170 to advance to the conference finals.

Heading into tonight’s Game 2, David looks at the Pacers’ recent home domination of the Heat, “Since this rivalry erupted in the 2012 playoffs, Indiana has gone 9-3 at home against Miami, which includes the last five meetings played at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. During this recent winning streak, the Pacers have held the Heat offense in check, allowing just 86.4 PPG. Personally, I’m leaning to the home ‘dog again based on those facts and I like going against the betting public. However, it does concern me a little that Miami has never trailed 2-0 in a playoff series since they started its “Big Three” version in 2010.”

From a totals perspective, the number has jumped several points following the high-scoring output in the opener, “The total for Game 2 has been adjusted up to 184, compared to the closing number of 182 in Game 1. The pace for the opener was real slow but both clubs shot better than 50 percent from the field and they also combined for 39 made free throws. Betting the ‘under’ is hard with these low numbers, especially with Miami. The Heat have watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in the postseason but the margins are very close,” David said.

The Heat are listed as 2 ½-point favorites at most spots, as Miami is 3-2 SU/ATS in the road favorite role in this postseason. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST from Indianapolis and can be seen on ESPN.
 

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Fact or Fiction

May 19, 2014


And then there were four… The conference finals are underway, and today, we're going to be looking at some of what is the truth and some of what is a lie about the four teams which are left standing.

FACT

The Spurs are the deserving favorites to win it all: It's all really coming together for the Spurs. They are playing against a scrambling Oklahoma City team in the Western Conference Finals, and they have had a history of finishing matters off when they smell blood in the water against good teams. On top of that, we just aren't all that sure that either of these teams in the East are anywhere near as good as they were in the regular season. Things are setting up well for San Antonio now that it looks like it will be the surviving team in the brutal West.

Sticking with Roy Hibbert will pay off for Indiana: There are going to be games where Hibbert is off, and we have just come to accept the fact that he is one of the most inconsistent players on the planet at the moment. He'll inevitably have one of those games in this series where he is just completely MIA, and the Heat will win that one going away. But we were right at the start of the postseason when we said that Hibbert was the only shot that the Pacers had, and though it hasn't been pretty sticking with him, the Pacers are just three wins away from the NBA Finals.

The Heat have to find an answer for David West: Sort of piggybacking off of what was just said, the Heat have no answers whatsoever for West and the rest of the size for the Pacers. When LeBron James is guarding West, Paul George has a mismatch. When Shane Battier is guarding West, there's a tremendous amount of muscle in the post for Indiana. Many said that the bugaboo in this series for Miami was its lack of size, and through one game, that's surely playing out.

FICTION

The Pacers are set for a collapse of epic proportions: We've all been waiting for this all postseason long. The Atlanta Hawks should have had the Pacers down and out, but in truth, the Dallas Mavericks were just as close to eliminating San Antonio. The Wizards had every shot to put the Pacers down early as well. Now, most expected the Heat to sweep Indiana. And look what we have here… Maybe it really did just take getting interested for Indiana to wake up. This is the series that the Pacers wanted all along, and now that it is here, they look like they're going to give Miami everything it can handle.

The Serge Ibaka injury spells the end for Oklahoma City: It's very possible that the Thunder are going to end up losing to the Spurs, but we don't think it's going to be because of Ibaka not being in the lineup. The fact of the matter is that Oklahoma City is probably a better offensive team with Nick Collison out there instead, and don't be stunned if we see an oddball lineup out there with both Reggie Jackson and Russell Westbrook on the court at the same time, too. It could be a matchup which gives the Spurs all sorts of trouble.
 

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Dunkel


Miami at Indiana
The Heat look to bounce back from their 107-96 loss in Game 1 as they face a Pacers team that is 3-18 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. Miami is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

TUESDAY, MAY 20

Game 505-506: Miami at Indiana (8:30 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.284; Indiana 121.360
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Over


NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, May 20


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MIAMI (62 - 30) at INDIANA (65 - 31) - 5/20/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 13-12 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 14-11 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
14 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, May 20


Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers, 8:30 ET
Miami: 26-14 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite
Indiana: 6-19 ATS off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, May 20


Pacers shot 52% in Game 1, outscored Heat 29-10 on foul line, putting six in double figures. Home side won all five Miami-Indiana games this season; Heat lost last five visits to Indiana by 7-6-1-12-11 points. Six of last eight series games went over the total. Miami is 8-3 in playoffs, 3-2 on road; they're 6-5 as favorite in playoffs. Indiana is 9-5 in playoffs, 5-0 vs spread when they are getting points. Under is 29-20 in Pacers' home games this season.

Over is 44-30 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 25-49 in playoffs this season.




NBA

Tuesday, May 20


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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
MIAMI vs. INDIANA
Miami is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 13 games



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NBA

Tuesday, May 20


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Game of the Day: Heat at Pacers
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Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (+2, 184)

The real Indiana Pacers are in the process of standing up, and the Miami Heat are going to need stand up right alongside. The Heat will attempt to draw even in the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Indiana Pacers for Game 2 on Tuesday. Indiana limped through the last half of the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs but was clearly the dominant team in Game 1, leading wire-to-wire as Miami struggled to get stops.

The Pacers enjoyed their highest-scoring game of the postseason with the 107-96 Game 1 victory and got at least 15 points from all five starters. “It’s a good start to the series but it’s just a good start, that’s all it is,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “We’ve got to expect a great fight in Game 2.” The Heat lost for just the second time in the playoffs but remained unconcerned and confident moving forward. “They took care of business in Game 1, but we’ll figure it out for Game 2,” said LeBron James, who put up 25 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and three steals for Miami.

TV:
8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY:
Books opened the Heat as 2-point road faves. The line moved to -2.5 but has settled back at the original number. The total hasn't moved off 184.

INJURY REPORT:
Pacers - F Evan Turner (Probable, illness), C Andrew Bynum (out for season).

ABOUT THE HEAT:
Miami stuck with the small lineup that served it well in the semifinals instead of trying to match Indiana’s bigger starters. That plan left center Chris Bosh along the perimeter, where he went 0-of-5 from 3-point range and finished with just nine points, and put him on bruising Roy Hibbert defensively. “That’s probably us at our worst defensively,” coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “You have to give (the Pacers) the credit. … It’s a matchup collectively that we have to figure out. That’s the whole point of competition.” The Heat got a strong performance from guard Dwyane Wade, who scored a game-high 27 points on 12-of-18 shooting.

ABOUT THE PACERS:
Indiana made it a goal at the beginning of the season to earn homecourt advantage over Miami and made sure it would not suffer a letdown at home. The Pacers, who dropped Game 1 at home in each of the two previous rounds, scored the first seven points and never trailed in Game 1, keeping the advantage at double figures for most of the fourth quarter. “We’re just being aggressive off the bounce, trying to attack, force help and then share it,” Vogel said. “It’s a pretty simple plan. It’s not always easiest to execute, but I thought our guys executed pretty well offensively.” Paul George led with 24 points and C.J. Watson provided key minutes off the bench.

TRENDS:


* Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
* Over is 4-0 in Heat last four overall.
* Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NBA Southeast.

CONSENSUS:
Just over 67 percent of wagers on Consensus are on the Miami Heat.
 

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Tuesday, May 20



Spurs open as 6-point faves in Game 2

Lines for Game 2 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are starting to be released, and books have the Spurs opening as 6-point favorites.

The Spurs handily won Game 1 by a score of 122-105, covering as 6-point home faves and going over the 208.5 closing total. Bet365 currently lists the Spurs as 6-point favorites with a total of 210.5 this time around.

Bet365 opened the Spurs as 4.5-point faves in Game 1, with a total of 209.


Ibaka reportedly determined to come back

The Oklahoma City Thunder clearly could not replace Serge Ibaka during Game 1 against the San Antonio Spurs. Ibaka, who has been ruled out of the rest of the playoffs, is not content watching his team struggle while he sits idly by.

Ibaka is "defiant and determined" to come back from his injury and help his team win a championship according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports.

After Game 1 Monday, Thunder coach Scott Brooks told the media Ibaka is "not coming through those doors...He's not coming back."

Game 2 is set to go Wednesday with the Thunder opening as 6-point road dogs.
 

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Tuesday, May 20


Home team has won nine straight in Heat-Pacers matchup

Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final between the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers tips off Tuesday night and the home side has had the advantage in the matchup.

The home team has won nine straight meetings between the best teams in the east, going 7-2 against the spread in that stretch. The Pacers are currently 2-point home dogs for tonight's game.
 

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Tuesday, May 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Indiana +2 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Indiana - Over 184.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
 

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