Cnotes 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

[CNOTES]

Pacers try to stay alive

May 29, 2014


Indiana (66-34) at Miami (65-31)

Eastern Conference Finals
Game 6 - Miami leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Miami -6.5, Total: 183

The Heat are eager to wrap up the Eastern Conference Finals against the Pacers in Game 6 in order to prevent a potential Game 7 on the road.

Miami was on the brink of advancing on Tuesday, but the club was unable to close out the series in Indiana. The Pacers gutted out a 93-90 victory despite being down big at times in the second half. The Heat are now 3-2 ATS in this series so far, and they are heading back home where they have dominated their opponent. Over the past three seasons, Miami is 12-2 SU (9-5 ATS) when hosting Indiana at American Airlines Arena. But over the past three seasons, the Pacers are 5-1 ATS when playing in a Game 6 in the playoffs. They are also 3-0 ATS this postseason when they are facing elimination in a series. They are, however, up against a Heat team that is 39-19 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the past three seasons.

Miami has not yet played in a series that has gone to the sixth game in these playoffs, but the club will certainly match the intensity of the Pacers as the extra rest heading into the NBA Finals would be crucial for their banged-up bunch. The Heat are hopeful that PF Chris Andersen (thigh) will make a return in order to provide them with some much-needed rim protection.

With the Pacers’ season on the line Tuesday, SF Paul George (23.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.8 SPG this series) came through with the biggest performance of his career. George had 37 points (15-of-28 FG, 5-of-14 threes), six rebounds and six steals in 45 minutes for Indiana with, 21 of his points coming in the fourth quarter alone. Indiana will definitely try to ride his hot hand in Game 6 by feeding him early and often. PF David West (16.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.4 APG this series) was also tremendous in Game 5, finishing with 19 points and nine rebounds in 41 minutes. West was excellent around the hoop and used his big body to muscle his way to the rim. West has been the steadiest presence in the starting lineup for the Pacers all series, and if he's not playing well in Game 6, his team has very little chance of advancing.

After a scoreless Game 5, C Roy Hibbert (11.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG this series) really stepped his game up, finishing with 10 points, 13 rebounds and one block in 38 minutes of play. Hibbert was at his best when the Pacers weren’t forcing the issue and feeding him the ball. He plays his best in the flow of the game, and his play on the pick-and-roll was one of the reasons Indiana climbed its way back into the contest. SG Lance Stephenson (14.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.2 SPG this series) had a solid effort, finishing with 12 points, five rebounds and five assists. He set the tone defensively for Indiana with two steals, and continues to make life tough on Miami.

The Heat were very close to ending the series on Wednesday, and they pretty much were without SF LeBron James (22.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.4 APG, 2.2 SPG this series), who was in foul trouble early in the game and finished with just seven points (2-of-10 FG) in 24 minutes. Miami can’t afford to have James in foul trouble in Game 6, or it could be packing its bags for Indiana again. The good news for the Heat is that James has been money in home playoff games this year with 27.1 PPG (57% FG, 39% threes), 6.9 RPG and 4.6 SPG. SG Dwyane Wade (21.2 PPG, 4.4 APG, 4.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG this series) really stepped up his total game up with James out. Wade finished with 18 points (7-of-14 FG, 2-of-3 threes), eight rebounds and seven assists in 40 minutes of play. Wade’s shooting from the outside was quite the surprise for Miami, and he will look to carry his momentum into Game 6.

PF Chris Bosh (14.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG this series) picked up where he left off in Game 4, shooting extremely confidently from the outside. Bosh finished with 20 points (9-of-21 FG), 10 rebounds, one block and two steals in 41 minutes. Miami will need to continue to get Bosh the ball to keep him in rhythm in Game 6. The club needs its big man to score, and over the past two games, he has done just that, averaging 22.5 PPG in 38.5 MPG. Miami also got an incredible performance on Wednesday out of SF Rashard Lewis (6.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG this series), who was scoreless in the series until Wednesday. Lewis played 31 minutes and had 18 points (6-of-9 threes) and four rebounds, shooting extremely well from the outside when Miami needed it.

 

[CNOTES]

Game 6 - Pacers at Heat

May 30, 2014


The Pacers stayed alive for one more game after holding off the Heat in one of the crazier contests of the season on Wednesday. Indiana heads to South Florida for tonight’s pivotal Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals as the Heat looks to advance to its fourth consecutive NBA Finals and a shot at a third straight championship.

How nuts was Indiana’s 93-90 victory in Game 5? LeBron James sat for half of the game with foul trouble, as the Heat star racked up his fifth foul early in the third quarter, a period in which Indiana’s hands got very hot. The Pacers outscored the Heat in the third, 31-15, one quarter after Miami limited Indiana to just 11 points. Paul George woke up in the second half after a quiet first 24 minutes with a buzzer-beating three-pointer to end the third quarter, followed by a 21-point effort in the final quarter.

George finished with a game-high 37 points as the Pacers improved to 3-0 SU/ATS in the postseason when facing elimination. James scored a playoff career-low seven points due to his early foul problems, but Miami still had an opportunity to win the game as the former MVP found Chris Bosh in the corner for a go-ahead three-pointer in the final seconds, but Bosh missed and the Pacers grabbed the rebound. Indiana managed a cover as a one-point favorite after the Heat opened as early two-point ‘chalk,’ as favorites improved to a staggering 9-1 SU/ATS in the conference finals.

In spite of James’ lengthy stay on the bench in Game 5, the Heat received an unexpected boost from veteran Rashard Lewis, who knocked down six three-pointers, including several big treys in the final minutes. The Heat drilled 15 shots from downtown, while attempting only eight free throws in the loss. David West shot the ball well for the Pacers by hitting 7-of-11 shots for 19 points, but Lance Stephenson and Roy Hibbert combined to shoot 8-of-22 from the floor.

Miami has been nearly automatic off a loss in the playoffs, winning 11 straight games off a defeat since the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals against Boston. In those 11 victories, the Heat has covered nine times, while posting an incredible 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS record in close-out games at the American Airlines Arena since 2011. In both opportunities this postseason off a loss, Erik Spoelstra’s team beat the Nets in Game 4 of the second round and the Pacers in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

To force a potential Game 7 on Sunday at home, the Pacers will need to do something that don’t normally do, which is win in Miami. In the last 10 visits to Miami, Frank Vogel’s club has lost nine times, including all four trips this season. In all four losses to the Heat, the ‘over’ has hit four times, while the Pacers have compiled a 2-6 ATS record as an underdog of six points or more in the last eight meetings in Miami.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David says it’s hard to ignore Miami’s consistency off a defeat, “If you look at the tendencies for the Heat off a loss and how well they’ve played at home, I don’t know how you can argue against them to lose Game 6 outright. They’ve gone 7-0 at home in this year’s playoffs and since LeBron, Wade and Bosh formed their alliance in 2010, the trio have led the team to a 37-7 mark in South Florida. The money-line on Miami is minus-330 at a few shops and while that might be a little rich for some, most would believe this series isn’t going seven games.”

Even though the favorites have dominated in this round, laying the number may be too much according to David, “While I believe Miami should win Friday, I don’t believe it will be an easy wire-to-wire victory. Grabbing seven points with the Pacers isn’t a bad investment, considering they have gone 5-3 on the road in the playoffs and they have won a road playoff game at Miami not once but twice. Plus, it should be noted that even though Miami is 2-0 off a loss in the postseason, those wins were only by six and four points.”

From the totals standpoint, a pair of missed free throws from West and George in the final seconds cost ‘under’ bettors. David says that tonight’s total is again a toss-up, “If you bet the total in Game 5, you were treated to a good old-fashioned sweat shop. To be fair the ‘under’ was the right side and it barely cashed at most books but if it wasn’t for a couple missed free throws at the end, you could argue that the ‘over’ should’ve hit. For Game 6, the total is in the same neighborhood and the pace alone should have you leaning ‘under’ but the free throw and 3-point attempts by both teams could make you argue an ‘over’ bet.”

The Heat opened as seven-point favorites, but that number is creeping up to 7 ½ and may even get to eight by tip-off. Tonight’s Game 6 begins at 8:30 PM EST from Miami and can be seen on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Playoff Results

May 30, 2014

Betting Results

Conference Finals
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up 9-1 8-2
Against the Spread 9-1 9-1
Total
Over-Under 4-5-1


Eastern Conference Finals

(E1) Indiana vs. (E2) Miami
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Miami at Indiana (+2, +115) 107-96 Underdog Over (182)
2 Miami (-2) at Indiana 87-84 Favorite Under (184)
3 Indiana at Miami (-6) 99-87 Favorite Over (182.5)
4 Indiana at Miami (-6) 102-90 Favorite Over (183)
5 Miami at Indiana (-1) 93-90 Favorite Push (183)
6 Indiana at Miami - - -
7 Miami at Indiana - - -



Western Conference Finals

(W2) Oklahoma City vs. (W1) San Antonio
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-6) 122-105 Favorite Over (209)
2 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-5) 112-77 Favorite Under (210)
3 San Antonio at Oklahoma City (-2.5) 106-97 Favorite Under (209)
4 San Antonio at Oklahoma City (-2.5) 105-92 Favorite Under (207.5)
5 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-5) 117-89 Favorite Under (207)
6 San Antonio at Oklahoma City - - -
7 Oklahoma City at San Antonio - - -

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Friday, May 30


Favorites cover nine straight in conference finals

With the San Antonio Spurs big 117-89 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of their best-of-seven series Thursday night, they kept favorites hot against the spread in the conference finals.

The Spurs easily covered the 5-point spread, making favorites now 9-1 ATS in both conference finals and have covered nine in a row.

The only game the favorite didn't cover was Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final when the Miami Heat lost as slight 1.5-points favorites.

The Heat are 7.5-point favorites for their Game 6 showdown with the Indiana Pacers Friday night.


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NBA
Short Sheet

Friday, May 30

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat, 8:30 ET
Indiana: 5-14 ATS after a win by 6 points or less
Miami: 30-17 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, May 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indiana - 8:30 PM ET Indiana +7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Miami - Over 182.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

Spurs head to OKC

May 30, 2014


Oklahoma City (69-31) at San Antonio (73-26)

Western Conference Finals
Game 6 – Spurs lead series 3-2
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Oklahoma City -3.5, Total: 207

The Spurs look to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals with a win on Saturday night against the Thunder.

This series has been dominated by the home team with SU and ATS wins in each of the first five games going to the host. Game 5 proved no different as the Spurs took the victory by a score of 117-89 as five-point favorites. They shot 51.3% from the field in the win and have now hit 50% or more of their field goals in each of their three home games. The contest got out of hand in the second half, and after the Spurs took a 10-point lead into halftime, they came out and outscored Oklahoma City by 18 in the final two quarters. Tim Duncan lead San Antonio with a team-high 22 points as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook just did not have the firepower to carry the team themselves, netting a combined 46 points in the loss. One area that the Spurs dominated was on the boards, out-rebounding the Thunder 48-35 while having six different players with 4+ rebounds.

Heading back to Oklahoma City should be interesting as the Spurs are one of the better road teams this year, going 32-16 SU (26-22 ATS) in away games while the Thunder are a solid 40-10 SU (28-21 ATS) at home. Going back three seasons, Oklahoma City holds a 13-9 SU (14-7 ATS) advantage when these two teams face off, and has won nine straight games SU and ATS when playing at home. In their two wins at home in this series, OKC has held the Spurs under 40% shooting in each game while forcing 14.5 turnovers per contest. Bettors should take notice that San Antonio is 12-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover two of their last three games ATS this season. On the other hand, the Thunder are 25-13 ATS (65.8%) in home games revenging a loss versus an opponent over the past two seasons. Neither team brings any significant injuries into this game.

San Antonio was one of the more efficient teams all season long and is hitting 49% of their field goal attempts in this postseason. They cannot get anything going in Oklahoma City though, making just 69-of-174 shots (39.7%) in the two contests of this series. PF Tim Duncan (17.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG in series) had a big double-double (22 points, 12 rebounds) in Game 5 but averaged just 12.5 PPG (40% FG) in the two games so far in OKC. One thing that has been missing from his game in these conference finals have been blocks as he has just four in the series after swatting away 1.9 BPG in the regular season. PG Tony Parker (14.2 PPG, 5.8 APG in series) had just twelve points in Thursday’s victory and has played more than 30 minutes just once in this series. He also struggled in the team’s two losses, netting just 11.5 PPG on 11-of-24 shooting.

SF Kawhi Leonard (10.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG in series) had his highest rebound total (7) of the series in Game 5 while adding 14 points on 4-of-7 shooting. He has not been aggressive against the Thunder, taking just 9.4 shots per game and hitting them at a 43% clip. SG Manu Ginobili (15.2 PPG, 3.4 APG, 1.0 SPG in series) had another solid game (19 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds) on Thursday and has been very efficient with his shot selection in this series, making 57% of his field goals, 61% of this three-pointers and is perfect (10-for-10) from the charity stripe.

Oklahoma City has been a great offense during these playoffs, scoring 102.2 PPG (45% FG), but have let the Spurs really slow them down to the tune of 96.4 PPG (45% FG) in this series. There has been a stark contrast between home and away though, as they are putting up 105.5 PPG in their two home games and just 90.3 PPG in San Antonio. SF Kevin Durant (24.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG in series) had 25 points on 11-of-21 shooting in the Game 5 loss while taking just four shots from the free throw line; making just one. He has scored more than 30 points just once over the five games of this series after doing so in 8-of-13 previous playoff contests this year.

PG Russell Westbrook (25.4 PPG, 7.2 APG, 5.4 RPG, 2.6 SPG in series) had 21 points to go along with seven assists and three steals on Thursday while taking a postseason low 12 shots. As usual, he was able to get to the free-throw line plenty, making 7-of-9 shots from there and is now 35-for-39 (90%) in the series. PF Serge Ibaka (10.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.0 BPG in series) had just six points and two rebounds while adding two blocks in the loss on Thursday. He has seen his points and blocks decrease in each of the three games he’s played in this series. PG Reggie Jackson (10.0 PPG, 3.0 APG, 3.0 RPG in series) put up double-digit points (11) for the third time in this series in Game 5 and has been on the court for 30+ minutes in two of the past three contests.

 

[CNOTES]

Game 6 - Spurs at Thunder

May 31, 2014


One spot in the NBA Finals is spoken for after Miami destroyed Indiana to wrap up the Eastern Conference championship last night. San Antonio can set up a rematch of last season’s epic championship with Miami by winning one of the next two games against Oklahoma City, as the Spurs head to Chesapeake Energy Arena tonight trying to close out the Thunder.

Following two blowout losses in Games 3 and 4, San Antonio shot lights out in Game 5 back at home, hitting 51% of its shots from the floor in a 117-89 rout of Oklahoma City to grab the 3-2 series lead. The Spurs easily covered as five-point favorites, as the ‘chalk’ has won and cashed all five games in the Western Conference Finals. Gregg Popovich’s team drilled 13-of-26 three-pointers, including a combined 10 treys from Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, and Patty Mills.

The Thunder looked good early by putting up 32 first quarter points, but OKC was outscored by 10 points in the second quarter to trail by double-digits at the half. The offense faded away in the second half with just 34 points as not one Thunder player besides Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Reggie Jackson scored more than six points. The Spurs dominated the Thunder in the paint in the first two games of this series, but San Antonio’s rebounding set up plenty of opportunities in Game 5, outrebounding the Thunder, 48-35.

The task is tall for the Spurs to close tonight, even though they have Game 7 at home in their pockets. San Antonio has dropped nine consecutive visits to Chesapeake Energy Arena, including four losses this season. In all four visits to OKC, the Spurs have been limited to 97 points or fewer, while the ‘under’ has hit all four times. After an ‘over’ in Game 1 of this series, the ‘under’ has cashed in each of the past four contests, with each of the last four games decided by nine points or more.

The Thunder has won three of four playoff games off a road loss, which includes the 106-97 victory in Game 3 of this series against the Spurs. Since losing three straight games at home in late February, OKC has won 18 of its past 22 at Chesapeake Energy Arena, which includes three victories over San Antonio.

Chris David says the home dominance is difficult to ignore, “Based on the trends in this series and the dominance by OKC at home against the Spurs, I don’t know how you can make a case to bet against the Thunder tonight. And I don’t believe you can make an argument that it will be close because neither team has been able to show any offensive production on the road thus far. If San Antonio wins, would I be surprised? Absolutely not. However, the only way the Spurs win this game and any other playoff game for that matter is if they hit their 3-pointers. You can preach Duncan-Parker all day long but San Antonio’s success depends on outside shooting and it’s been that way the past couple years.”

With the ‘under’ run in this series, David believes if tonight’s game is competitive, we can see an ‘over’ play, “I feel horrible for anybody who had the ‘over’ in Game 5 and lost. It was definitely the right lean but bad beats occur and I’m sure most of us have seen that movie played out many times before, especially when you get blowouts in the Association. If you look at the first five games, the two teams have gone ice cold in the fourth quarter, combining for 56, 36, 44, 47 and recently 38 points on Thursday. Outside of the first two games, which were clear-cut results, the last three totals were decided by the scoring in the final 12 minutes.”

David continues his analysis on the total, “For Game 6, the total opened 207 and it will probably climb by tipoff. After four straight ‘under’ tickets, the ‘over’ is certainly due but it’s not wise to bet against a streak. Some will tell you to ride it or just pass altogether. We’re also long overdue for a tight game, which usually makes the clock run and in turn produces ‘under’ winners. I feel that we’ll get a nice matchup on Saturday and I’m going to lean to a prop bet on the 4th quarter ‘over’ 52 ½ points. I believe some late free throws will get the job done by either squad.”

Tonight, the Thunder is listed as a 3 ½-point favorite with the number creeping up to four at several books. Game 6 tips off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on TNT.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Spurs (62-20) at Thunder (59-23)

Date: May 31, 2014 8:30 PM EDT


OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Thunder guard Derek Fisher has played more playoff games than anyone in history.

He says the Western Conference finals between the Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, filled with major strategy shifts and home blowouts, has produced one of the wildest series he's been involved in. San Antonio leads 3-2 and can close out it out Saturday in Oklahoma City.

'There's no script for this,' Fisher said. 'You can try to set expectations, and everybody can sit around and try and predict what's going to happen and which team is going to come out on top, and it's just impossible. That's what makes sports sports, and why people are so excited about either being there or watching it, because you never know what's going to happen.'

San Antonio's Gregg Popovich and Oklahoma City's Scott Brooks have one-upped each other with shrewd moves during the series, and the scoreboard has tipped dramatically with each change.

Oklahoma City came up with the first major lineup changes in Game 3. Defensive wiz Serge Ibaka returned to Oklahoma City's starting lineup after suffering what was thought to be a season-ending left calf strain and Reggie Jackson moved into the starting lineup to help the Thunder win Game 3, 107-96, and Game 4, 105-92.

In Game 5 in San Antonio, the Spurs' decision to go with perimeter-shooting post players alongside Tim Duncan helped the team's floor spacing, and the Spurs rolled to a 117-89 win. Matt Bonner got his first start of the season, and his presence helped Duncan get off to a fast start. Boris Diaw started the second half and scored seven points in the third quarter to help the Spurs take a 20-point lead at the end of the period. Popovich's move forced Ibaka, the league's leading shot blocker during the regular season, away from the basket, and the Spurs' perimeter players had an easier time getting to the hoop.

'The adjustments that the coaches made were very efficient tonight,' Diaw said after the game. 'We tried to space the floor a little more. We came back to the way we were aggressive in the first two games. Going from good to great. That's what Pop has asked all year, that's what we've been doing all year.'

When Brooks was asked if he might start Ibaka at center to prevent the Spurs from pulling him away from the basket, Brooks ruled nothing out.

'Anything's possible,' he said. 'We just have to, whoever we put out there, we just have to play better.'

Thunder forward Kevin Durant said lineup changes, though important, are secondary to effort. He said Oklahoma City did not play with enough intensity in Game 5.

'Schemes and Xs and Os, it all goes out the door,' he said. 'We've just got to play harder. They did last game, so we've got to match up.'

Brooks said the key for Oklahoma City is defense. San Antonio has shot at least 50 percent from the field in all three of its wins. If the Thunder don't get stops, they can't get into their dangerous fast break attack.

'We know their plays, they know our plays, and we just have to be able to execute with maximum effort to give ourselves a chance to get a stop,' Brooks said. 'That's what it comes down to.'

The lineup changes have coincided with venue changes. The home teams have won every game in the series by at least nine points, and by an average of 20.4 per game. Popovich was at a loss to explain why the series has played out this way.

'It seems like the home team each time looks to have the greater passion or physicality,' he said. 'That's hard to measure because both teams want to win just as bad as the other.'

Durant said the effort must be there Saturday night or the trend of home blowouts - and Oklahoma City's season - will end.

'We know that it's a situation where we lose, we go home, and nobody wants to do that, so we just leave it all out there and whatever happens we live with,' Durant said. 'Most of the time when we play extremely hard, play well, play together, we come out on top.'

 

[CNOTES]

SERIES AT A GLANCE


GAME 1
Thunder at Spurs
Mon, May 19 Final 105 to 122
Recaps


GAME 2
Thunder at Spurs
Wed, May 21 Final 77 to 112
Recaps


GAME 3
Spurs at Thunder
Sun, May 25 Final 97 to 106
Recaps


GAME 4
Spurs at Thunder
Tue, May 27 Final 92 to 105
Recaps


GAME 5
Thunder at Spurs
Thu, May 29 Final 89 to 117
Recaps


GAME 6
Spurs at Thunder
Sat, May 31 - 8:30PM EDT


GAME 7
Thunder at Spurs
Mon, Jun 2 - 9:00PM EDT

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Playoff Results

May 31, 2014

Betting Results

Conference Finals

Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away

Straight Up 10-1 9-2

Against the Spread 10-1 10-1

Total

Over-Under 5-5-1


Eastern Conference Finals

(E1) Indiana vs. (E2) Miami (Heat wins series 4-2)

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 Miami at Indiana (+2, +115) 107-96 Underdog Over (182)

2 Miami (-2) at Indiana 87-84 Favorite Under (184)

3 Indiana at Miami (-6) 99-87 Favorite Over (182.5)

4 Indiana at Miami (-6) 102-90 Favorite Over (183)

5 Miami at Indiana (-1) 93-90 Favorite Push (183)

6 Indiana at Miami (-8) 117-92 Favorite Over (182.5)



Western Conference Finals

(W2) Oklahoma City vs. (W1) San Antonio

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-6) 122-105 Favorite Over (209)

2 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-5) 112-77 Favorite Under (210)

3 San Antonio at Oklahoma City (-2.5) 106-97 Favorite Under (209)

4 San Antonio at Oklahoma City (-2.5) 105-92 Favorite Under (207.5)

5 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-5) 117-89 Favorite Under (207)

6 San Antonio at Oklahoma City - - -

7 Oklahoma City at San Antonio - - -

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 31

Oklahoma City is 6-3 vs Spurs this year, 6-1 when Ibaka plays, 0-2 if he does not; Spurs shot 39.6%/39.8% in their two losses, 58-50-51% in the three wins, two of which came with Ibaka out. OC has now won 12 of last 17 games with San Antonio, is 9-0 in last nine series games played here. Ten of last thirteen series games, including last four in row, stayed under total. Home team covered ten of eleven games in this round of the playoffs so far. Spurs scored 122-112-117 in its series wins, 97-92 in its losses, with home side winning/covering all five series games.

Over is 47-36 in playoffs this season, 5-6 in this round..
Favorites are 34-49 in playoffs this season, 10-1 in this round.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Saturday, May 31


Heat advance to Finals, make it 10 straight ATS for faves

The Miami Heat dominated the Indiana Pacers 117-92 in Game 6 Friday night, easily covering the 8-point spread and extending the hot streak of favorites in the conference finals.

Thanks to the big win, the Heat not only advanced to their fourth straight NBA Finals, they made it 10 wins row for favorites against the spread in both conference finals. Favorites are now 10-1 ATS in the conference finals with the lone loss being when Miami lost to Indiana in Game 1 as slight 1.5 point faves.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are hoping to keep the trend alive as they host the San Antonio Spurs in Game 6 Saturday night as 3.5-point faves. They trail the series 3 games to 2.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 31

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SAN ANTONIO (73 - 26) at OKLAHOMA CITY (69 - 31) - 5/31/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 103-86 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 88-72 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 56-40 ATS (+12.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 53-46 ATS (+2.4 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 69-50 ATS (+14.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 52-35 ATS (+13.5 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 89-69 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-7 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-9 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
12 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Oklahoma City
The Thunder look to stay alive in the series as they host a San Antonio team that is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 31

Game 523-524: San Antonio at Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.640; Oklahoma City 132.444
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2); Under




NBA

Saturday, May 31

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio


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NBA

Saturday, May 31

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Game of the Day: Spurs at Thunder
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San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City (-3.5, 206.5)

San Antonio leads series 3-2.

The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from returning to the NBA Finals but have a dubious streak to overcome if they are to end the Western Conference finals on Saturday. San Antonio owns a 3-2 lead in the series as it returns to Oklahoma City, where the Spurs have lost nine consecutive games dating back to March 16, 2012. The Thunder easily won Games 3 and 4 at home and look to force a Game 7 in San Antonio.

The Spurs rolled to a convincing 117-89 victory in Game 5 as the home venue continues to be the most important facet of the series. San Antonio has won its three home games by an average of 26.7 points and lost the two outings in Oklahoma City by an average of 11. Thunder star Kevin Durant isn’t looking at a Game 6 win as a mere formality despite Oklahoma City’s long home-court domination of the Spurs. “We’re guaranteed 48 more minutes,” Durant told reporters. “It’s been an up-and-down series but we’ve got to find a way to come with it in Game 6.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened as low as -3 and jump to -3.5. The total opened 206.5 and jumped to 207 before quickly dropping back down to 206.5.

INJURY WATCH: N/A

ABOUT THE SPURS: Veteran power forward Tim Duncan was back on his game with 22 points and 12 rebounds after averaging 12.5 points and seven boards in the two losses in Oklahoma City. He shot a series-best 8-of-13 from the field in Game 5 and played with an extreme level of determination. “Just wanted to put a better one on the floor and, obviously, didn’t want to go down three games in a row,” Duncan said afterward. Duncan had more room to operate inside due to the decision to stretch the floor by starting perimeter-oriented Matt Bonner over center Tiago Splitter.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City’s longtime home dominance means nothing when the ball tips off in Game 6, and failing to win a 10th straight time would equate to a disappointing end to the season. The Thunder looked bad in Games 1 and 2 but bounced back, and coach Scott Brooks is at a loss to grasp the one-sided nature of each contest in the series. “It’s interesting, you really can’t explain it because both teams are really good and both teams compete, but it’s the way it is,” Brooks said after Game 5. “We have to regroup and come back better in a few days. We’ve always had a great comeback with better energy and better defensive attitude, and that’s what we’re going to have to come back with.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
* Spurs are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
* Spurs are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.

CONSENSUS: 59 percent of bets are on Oklahoma City -2.5. 71 percent of bets are on Over 206.5

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday, May 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 8:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -3.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Oklahoma City - Over 206 500 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Duncan, LeBron ready to meet again

June 1, 2014


MIAMI (AP) - Over the last 10 seasons, only one NBA player has been part of more wins than LeBron James.

His name is Tim Duncan.

Their numbers over that decade are incredibly similar. Duncan has appeared in 622 regular-season and playoff victories, James has played in 621. Duncan is shooting 50.2 percent from the field, James is shooting 50 percent. Duncan has won three championships over that stretch, James has two.

Plus, when facing each other in the NBA Finals, both has won one, lost one.

Here comes the tiebreaker - a Finals rematch that will have high expectations.

Miami and San Antonio are the league's last two teams standing for the second consecutive year, their next chapter starting on the Spurs' home floor Thursday night. The Heat won a wild series last season for their second straight championship, needing a frantic rally to avoid elimination in Game 6 and then riding the strength of a 37-point, 12-rebound effort from James to top the Spurs in Game 7.

''I think our guys, they actually grew from the loss last year,'' Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. ''I call it fortitude. I think they showed an unbelievable amount of fortitude. If I can compliment my own team humbly, to have that tough loss, especially the Game 6 and not have a pity party and come back this year and get back to the same position, I think that's fortitude.''

It's the league's first Finals rematch since Chicago and Utah played in 1997 and 1998.

The teams have actually played three times since last season's classic series ended, twice in the regular season, another being a preseason meeting in Miami where the Spurs acknowledged that the pain of losing Game 7 on that floor was still real.

Then again, it's almost like they wanted to feel that hurt at times. Popovich showed the Spurs clips of Games 6 and 7 early in training camp this season, not so much to open old wounds but rather speed up the healing process.

''We were just trying to put it away, just get over that part of it, learn from it, and move forward from there,'' Duncan said.

Move forward, they did.

San Antonio won 62 games in the regular season, the best record in the league. One of those wins was a 24-point romp over Miami, on the same floor where this series will start on Thursday.

The Heat know what wanting revenge feels like. They lost the 2011 NBA Finals to Dallas, then opened the following season on the Mavericks' floor and simply blew them away.

Heat forward Chris Bosh called it ''extra motivation'' for the Spurs.

''It's just something that we have to deal with, and we know that they're going to be very passionate, and they're going to play some good basketball,'' Bosh said. ''So whoever we play, we just have to continue to keep our approach the same and play good basketball.''

While the Spurs were punching their ticket by ousting Oklahoma City from the West finals on Saturday night, the Heat were getting a day off. James was taking his kids to see X-Men. James Jones went to a home-improvement store for some supplies. Bosh insisted he was going to do as little as possible, and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra isn't summoning his team to practice again until Monday.

By then, James will be locked in on the Spurs.

''It hasn't really hit us that much yet because I think we're in it,'' James said Friday night after Miami beat Indiana and clinched its fourth consecutive East championship. ''I think it will once we're done and we're able to look back at what we were able to accomplish as players, as a franchise. I think that's when it will really hit us. We definitely don't take it for granted to be in this position.''

So for the next few days, all the highlights of last year's finals will be played over and over again.

The shot by Tony Parker - who missed the second half of Saturday night's game with a left ankle injury - to win Game 1 in Miami for the Spurs. James' twirl-on-the-rim dunk as the Heat pulled away in Game 2. San Antonio sharpshooter Danny Green's Finals-record 3-point display. Bosh's rebound that led to Ray Allen's shot that saved Miami's season in Game 6. The yellow rope, the precursor to a Spurs celebration that never happened.

All made for an epic series.

The encore could be even better.

''Obviously we are very happy and pleased with the season we have had so far, but we are not by any means satisfied,'' Green said. ''We know we have a lot of work to do against a very good team. There is a reason why they're back there and are two-time champs. We have our work cut out for us, but we are happy with going back - just not satisfied.''

 

[CNOTES]

Rematch time: Spurs-Heat in NBA Finals

May 31, 2014


MIAMI (AP) - A year ago, the Spurs-Heat matchup in the NBA Finals was considered a classic.

And now, an encore awaits.

For the first time since 1998, the NBA Finals is a rematch. San Antonio and Miami will decide the league's champion for the second straight season, the Spurs earning their spot Saturday night by beating Oklahoma City 112-107 in overtime in Game 6 of the Western Conference finals.

Miami - the NBA's two-time defending champion - eliminated Indiana from the East finals Friday night, also in six games.

''The two best teams will meet,'' Heat guard Dwyane Wade said. ''We're just happy and excited that we're one of the best.''

The Spurs and Heat split two meetings this season, both winning by comfortable margins at home. Game 1 of this year's Finals is Thursday night in San Antonio.

''It's unbelievable to regain that focus after that devastating loss that we had last year,'' San Antonio's Tim Duncan said. ''But we're back here. We're excited about it. We've got four more to win. We'll do it this time.''

It's the sixth trip to the Finals for San Antonio, which won titles in 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007 before falling to the Heat last season in a series that had some unbelievable drama. The Spurs held a 3-2 series lead and were leading by five points with 28.2 seconds left in Game 6 at Miami, before Ray Allen's 3-pointer capped a wild rally and forced overtime, where the Heat ultimately prevailed.

Miami then won Game 7, 95-88.

The Heat are heading to the Finals for the fourth straight season and fifth time overall, beating Dallas in 2006, losing to the Mavericks in 2011, then topping Oklahoma City in 2012 and the Spurs last season. The Spurs - who had the league's best regular-season record, 62-20 - are now the eighth franchise in league history with at least six trips to the championship round, and would be just the fourth franchise with as many as five NBA titles.

''We know we're facing a very talented and tough team and it's going to be rough,'' the Spurs' Manu Ginobili said. ''But of course, we believe in our means and we're going to do our best, as always.''

Both teams have a multi-time Finals MVP. Duncan has won it three times for the Spurs; LeBron James has won it twice for the Heat, and will look to join only Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal on the list of players to receive that award in three consecutive seasons.

The last Finals rematch came in 1998 when Chicago beat Utah for the last of Jordan's six championships.

 

[CNOTES]

Heat ready for 4th straight NBA Finals

May 31, 2014


MIAMI (AP) - Erik Spoelstra said he mentioned how daunting the task would be only once.

Back in September, when the Miami Heat assembled to begin training camp, Spoelstra addressed his team about furthering its championship legacy and how rare it is for a team to find its way to the NBA Finals in four consecutive seasons.

''We've never brought it up since then,'' Spoelstra said.

It'll get brought up now. The seed the Heat coach planted in the Bahamas at that training camp took root. The Heat are Finals-bound - for the fourth straight time.

The sputtering stretches of play in March and April, surrendering the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs to Indiana, winning 12 fewer games in this regular season than a year ago, they all seem moot and meaningless now. The Heat have a chance at a third consecutive NBA title, with the Finals starting Thursday night against either San Antonio or Oklahoma City.

''It's amazing to make it to one Finals,'' Heat forward Shane Battier said. ''To do it four times in a row for some of these guys, it's a tremendous, tremendous accomplishment and it speaks volumes to the dedication, luck, and perseverance that you need to do it.''

Spoelstra spoke of that luck factor when he gathered his team for a locker-room huddle moments after the celebration started Friday night, after Miami wrapped up its fourth straight East crown with a 117-92 win over Indiana to win the series in six games. His words were interrupted twice by LeBron James, which nobody minded.

''We don't take this for granted,'' Spoelstra said.

''No, sir,'' James added, nodding.

''We do not take it for granted,'' Spoelstra repeated.

''No way,'' James interjected.

''How tough it actually is and how many things have to go our way,'' Spoelstra continued. ''Four times, you guys who haven't been here with us the whole time, you guys inherit everything that we've experienced.''

Only six current Heat players appeared in the 2011 postseason, Miami's first of the ''Big 3'' era and the last in which it actually lost a series. James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Mario Chalmers, James Jones and Udonis Haslem are the last holdovers.

Battier and Norris Cole arrived after the 2011 Finals loss. Ray Allen, Chris Andersen and Rashard Lewis - all playing huge roles these days for Miami - came after the first title run of this Heat era in 2012. The core of last season's title squad, with the exception of amnestied Mike Miller, was back to try it again this time around.

Even with all that talent, with that championship experience, Spoelstra knew a tone had to be immediately set when the season began.

''What I was really encouraged about was our attendance and commitment in training camp in the Bahamas,'' Spoelstra said. ''Right from there, and we communicated during the summer that, if we're real about this, about how difficult that journey is, that you cannot shortcut, that we would show it immediately in training camp.''

They're still showing it now.

Miami is 12-3 in these playoffs, 8-0 at home, and has won a road game in 15 straight postseason series. The Heat will need to extend that streak to win the NBA Finals; either the Spurs or the Thunder will hold home-court advantage when the title series gets underway.

''Obviously, going through the weeks and weeks and weeks and grinding months of a regular season, it was a toll on all of us,'' James said. ''But I felt like down the stretch, if we could get healthy, we could get everyone in uniform and have our full strength, it didn't matter what seed we were. I felt like we can represent the Eastern Conference again in the Finals if we had the health, and we were able to accomplish that.''

At times, like Friday night, they make winning look easy.

Collectively, they insist it's much harder than it appears.

''You still have to go out and do it every single night,'' Allen said. ''It's the toughest thing I've ever done and I guarantee the guys in this locker room would say the same thing.''

Only the Lakers and Celtics have appeared in four straight Finals, with Boston (1984-87) the last to do so. Wade was 5 when that run ended, James was 2, and Cole, Michael Beasley and Greg Oden hadn't even been born.

Now the Heat are in that club. And regarding what Spoelstra said in that first-day conversation, the point of his words then has become perfectly clear to his team now.

''Having a chance to win is always a special thing,'' Bosh said. ''We always talk about not taking it for granted from Day One. We know it's a very long season. It has its rewards in the end if we stick together and do what we're supposed to do. But it hasn't really hit us yet. I would rather it hit me in two weeks.''

 

[CNOTES]

Adjusted Series Prices

June 1, 2014

Below are the series prices from Sportsbook.ag

Adjusted Series Price (Opening Series Price)

NBA Finals

San Antonio vs. Miami

Spurs -120

Heat +100

 

[CNOTES]

Spurs PG Parker dealing with ankle injury

June 1, 2014


OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Tony Parker is dinged up again, and his status is unclear heading into the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat.

The San Antonio Spurs' All-Star point guard did not play in the second half or overtime of the Western Conference finals-clinching win over Oklahoma City on Saturday because of a sore left ankle. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich doesn't know what shape Parker will be in for Game 1 on Thursday in San Antonio.

''I have no idea,'' Popovich said Saturday night. ''I don't know what the deal is.''

Popovich said Parker sprained the ankle in Game 4 and aggravated it in Game 5. Popovich considered starting Manu Ginobili at point guard in Game 6 against the Thunder because Parker was having trouble during pregame. At halftime, Popovich made the decision to hold him out.

''He came to me about eight minutes on the clock (before the second half) and said he couldn't go,'' Popovich said. ''He couldn't cut. He was limping on it. He couldn't cut sideways or forward really.''

Popovich said he thought playing Parker in the second half would have hurt the team in the long term.

''I didn't want him to be a hero because he was 50 percent or less, we thought,'' Popovich said. ''That's probably bad for the team if you think about it. It was a tough decision to try to figure out whether to play him, and if you lose the game and it affects him for Monday night, then you're going to feel like you made an unwise choice.''

Parker has been plagued by injuries this year. He averaged 16.7 points and 5.7 assists while shooting 50 percent from the field during the regular season, but he missed 22 games. He strained his left hamstring in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals against Portland and did not return. The Spurs won that game easily to clinch the series.

Once again, his teammates bought him some rest. Had the Spurs lost Game 6, they would have faced an elimination game at home Monday against the Thunder.

''We didn't know how much Tony was hurt in his ankle,'' forward Boris Diaw said. ''But we didn't want to go to Game 7, and we didn't know if he would be ready to play if we did or if he would be 100 percent, so we tried to get it over with tonight.''

Still, the Spurs have proven all season they can win without key players, posting the NBA's best record despite a series of injuries.

''We have to continue to play basketball regardless of who is on the floor and our reserves did a great job - Cory (Joseph), Patty (Mills) - they stepped in and continued to run the offense and push the pace and playing good defense on their guards as well,'' guard Danny Green said.

Joseph started the second half of Game 6 against Oklahoma City and helped engineer a 37-point third quarter.

''Cory was very good,'' Ginobili said. ''I mean, it's hard to play when you don't have many opportunities to play in close games and stuff. But he did very well in Game 3 and 4 here. He always brings the juice, aggressiveness, competitiveness. He attacks the rim well. I think he made a few key plays.''

The Spurs said they excel without their stars because they are about a system, rather than individuals.

''We have been doing what we did the whole year, which is passing the ball to each other, getting some movement, getting pace and getting into a good rhythm,'' Diaw said. ''Always trying to set up a good shot for a teammate.''