NBA
Dunkel
Oklahoma City at San Antonio
The Thunder look to bounce back from their 122-105 loss in Game 1 as they face a Spurs team that is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games after allowing 100 points or more in the previous game. Oklahoma City is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+6). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 21
Game 507-508: Oklahoma City at San Antonio (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 126.520; San Antonio 130.198
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 212
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+6); Under
NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, May 21
Oklahoma City is without big man Ibaka for rest of playoffs, a big loss; Thunder beat San Antonio in 10 of last 13 meetings, four of five games this year, but with Ibaka out, OC's defense just isn't the same. Spurs hit 57.5% from floor in Game 1, 9-17 from arc, were +7 in turnovers. Six of last nine series games stayed under total. Oklahoma City is 4-3 on road in playoffs, with losses by 3-2-17points. Spurs won seven of eight at home in playoffs, 5-3 vs spread.
Over is 44-31 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 26-49 in playoffs this season.
NBA
Wednesday, May 21
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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Oklahoma City is 8-14-2 ATS in its last 24 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
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NBA
Wednesday, May 21
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Game of the Day: Thunder at Spurs
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Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-6, 211)
The San Antonio Spurs unleashed a dominant display in the series opener and look to make it two consecutive wins over Oklahoma City when they host the Thunder in Wednesday’s second game of the Western Conference finals. San Antonio shot 57.5 percent from the field and owned a 66-32 edge in points in the paint while rolling to a 122-105 victory. Oklahoma City couldn’t stop Tim Duncan in the first half with post player Serge Ibaka out for the series due to a calf injury.
Duncan scored 21 of his 27 points in the opening half as the Spurs established they could operate at will in the interior. The display also opened up the outside as guard Danny Green went 4-of-5 from 3-point range and guard Manu Ginobili scored all 18 of his points in the second half. Thunder stars Kevin Durant (28) and Russell Westbrook (25) combined for 53 points but San Antonio seldom allowed Oklahoma City to carry the flow of the game. “They’re younger than us and more athletic,” said point guard Tony Parker afterwards, “and so we have to be more perfect.”
TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT
LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Spurs as 6-point home faves for Game 2. The total opened 210.5 and is up to 211.
INJURY REPORT: Thunder - F Serge Ibaka (Out, calf).
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Perhaps Ibaka is Oklahoma City’s most important player and not league MVP Kevin Durant. The Thunder were lost defensively without him on the floor – San Antonio’s 57.5 field-goal percentage is the highest allowed in the postseason in the franchise’s Oklahoma City era – and replacements Steven Adams (four points, two rebounds) and Nick Collison (scoreless with three rebounds) were both ineffective. “We’re a no-excuse team,” Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks said. “Serge is out. He’s not coming back. We have to play better. If we expect to beat one of the best teams in basketball – and a very good offensive team – we have to play and we’re not going to make an excuse.”
ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker had 14 points and 12 assists and wasn’t the least bit hampered by the hamstring injury he suffered Wednesday in the first round against Portland. He was able to navigate the floor well and control the pace as well as keep up defensively with the speedy Westbrook. “I thought he played a very smart game,” Duncan said of Parker in his postgame press conference. “A very efficient game, made the right plays and that’s what’s going to have to happen this series with him.” Parker said the hamstring held up well and he expects his legs to feel even better in Game 2.
TRENDS:
* Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.
* Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
CONSENSUS: 50.43 percent of wagers on Consensus are coming in on the Spurs -6.
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NBA
Wednesday, May 21
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Thunder-Spurs Game 2: The game inside the game
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It is simply a matter of life for those of us inside of an electric media world – one does not begin to touch a letter on a keyboard without a surge protector in place. Without one, workplace disasters can happen. Scott Brooks and the Thunder had to deal with the lack of their own “Serge Protector” around the basket at San Antonio on Monday night, and it is that issue that becomes the prime narrative as the series moves on to Game #2.
To say that Serge Ibaka was missed by Oklahoma City is not news – the weaknesses of the defensive interior were visible enough for a first-time viewer of the sport to grasp. The Spurs scored 66 points in the paint, aggressively attacking en route to shooting 57.5 percent, getting 87 FG attempts and 17 FT’s vs. only nine turnovers. What will require basketball savvy and handicapping acumen is projecting what the Thunder can or will do next.
The early marketplace is relying on NBA tradition and Zig Zag models so far, with San Antonio currently -6 across the board, similar to Monday’s close. That is calling for the Thunder to shave 11 points off of the Game #1 margin as the 50-50 expectation. Ordinarily that is not unreasonable when one team out-shoots the other by 11.2 percent, given basketball’s ebbs-and-flows when there are two upper-tier teams involved. But that can also be where there is a fallacy in numbers.
Shooting percentages measure two things – the accuracy of the shooter(s), and the quality of shots taken. Many times that second element is given short shrift, but it should be credited with most of the weight from the opener. It was not that the Spurs shot superbly, it was that they were getting superb shots. For the series to tighten, the Oklahoma City defense has to change that.
Meanwhile the Thunder shot a respectable 46.3 percent, including 12-27 from 3-point range. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were 19-40, which is not easy to improve upon, and if there was a “wild card” in the Monday flow it was the 29 points from Reggie Jackson and Derek Fisher, on a 10-17 line that included 5-8 triples. Those two are unlikely to reach that level of efficiency again. You do not come away from Monday projecting OKC to shoot much better. So closing the scoreboard gap requires limiting turnovers (they had 16), and the defense forcing the Spurs into tougher shots.
So now back to that defense, because it also connects directly to the offensive flow. Except for the opening of the third quarter, when the Thunder went on a 19-10 run over eight minutes, stops were uncommon (in the first half the Spurs never went longer than 1:24 without scoring). Brooks had his biggest lineup on the floor to begin the 3rd, and it keyed that run. By dictating the flow with defense (San Antonio shot 3-12 through that stretch, with five turnovers), they were able to get out into the open floor on offense, which led to some easy opportunities for Durant and Westbrook.
There was a flip side to that, of course. While the defense was much better, when it is Perkins-Sefolosha-Collison on the court the offense is largely limited to the two stars. When they created open-court opportunities they closed the gap, but when the Spurs scored, and the Thunder had to execute against a set defense, it was awful. The first nine times they had the ball after San Antonio points in the 3rd quarter the offense only scored twice. At one point they were blanked for 3:51, until Fisher’s FT’s with 53.1 left. Those were the only points that did not come from Durant or Westbrook in the quarter, and the first FG in the second half from someone other than those two did not come until 7:30 remained in the game, when they were down 14.
The simple truth is that Brooks lacks options. He got some defensive life out of a bigger group for one stretch, but as the minutes went by that lineup became too easy to guard on the other end. Attempts to go extremely small, with Durant being the biggest player in the lineup, also failed because the San Antonio offense brought a precision to isolate and attack the smaller players in post-up settings. Which leads to the next point.
Over the last five home playoff games the Spurs have beaten three different teams by counts of 17, 22, 17, 24 and 23. They averaged 115 PPG, shooting 52.9 percent in the process. And note that those numbers are actually shaded against them a bit – they averaged 64.2 PPG in the first half, leading by 16.4, before a fair amount of coasting. So the issue is not just Brooks having to patch a defensive hole, but having to patch it against an offense that is playing at a level of execution rarely seen.
The Thunder will bring a better effort defensively (no one other than Fisher or Nick Collison came up with a steal!), with a Tuesday practice to develop some sans-Ibaka chemistry on that end. But it is damn hard to devise a game plan for guarding the Spurs right now. Not only do they have the opportunity to be efficient on offense, but they will also be pushing the pace when possible. As such the market adjustment up to 211 on the Total may still leave value – that plateau was reached over 45:09 on Monday, and because of the margin there were only two FT’s taken over the final 5:00. If the Thunder are involved in the end-game this time, the prospect of scramble points materializes.
