THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Notre Dame (6-6 SU and ATS) vs. Hawaii (7-6, 7-5 ATS) (at Honolulu)
After failing to qualify for the postseason last year, Notre Dame returns to bowl action, but it arrives in Honolulu having dropped four of five and now will face the Warriors on their home field at Aloha Stadium.
The Fighting Irish became bowl eligible with a 27-21 win over Navy as a four-point favorite back on Nov. 15 and then proceeded to lose its final two games, falling 24-23 at home to Syracuse as a huge 19½-point chalk and getting blown out at USC 38-3 as a 33 ½-point road ‘dog the following week. In its finale, Notre Dame was outgained 449-91 by the Trojans and managed just 41 passing yards and four first downs.
The Irish haven’t won a bowl game since the Cotton Bowl following the 1993 season, losing nine postseason games since then while going 1-8 ATS, including seven straight non covers. In fact, Notre Dame’s has dropped its last five bowl appearances by 14 points or more.
Hawaii won three of four down the stretch (3-1 ATS) to qualify for its third straight bowl game. The Warriors finished with a three-game homestand, crushing Idaho (49-17) and Washington State (24-10) before dropping a 29-24 decision to Cincinnati on Dec. 6, but they cashed as a 7½-point favorite against the Big East champion Bearcats. Junior QB Greg Alexander threw for 1,142 yards and nine TDs in the final four games to put Hawaii in this game.
After an undefeated regular season in 2007, Hawaii was awarded a berth in the BCS Sugar Bowl, but the Warriors got walloped 41-10 as a nine-point underdog to end its perfect season. The Warriors are 3-1 SU in the Hawaii Bowl, including 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two, most recently pounding Arizona State 41-24 as an 8½-point chalk in the 2006 Hawaii Bowl.
These two teams last met in 1997 with Notre Dame edging Hawaii 23-22 but coming nowhere near covering as a 28-point favorite.
Both teams have similar offenses, with the Irish averaging 22.7 points, 344.8 total yards and 113.4 rushing yards per game, while Hawaii nets 25 points, 344.8 total yards and 99.2 rushing yards per outing. However, over their last three games, the Irish have mustered just 17.7 points and 254.3 total yards per game, while the Warriors put up 32.3 points and 351 yards per contest.
Defensively, Notre Dame yields 22.2 points and 327.5 total yards per game (142.7 rushing ypg), while Hawaii surrenders 27.3 points and 351.8 total yards per game (148 rushing ypg).
In addition to their 0-7 ATS drought in bowl games, the Irish are 15-25-1 ATS in their last 41 overall, going 1-4 ATS down the stretch this season. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-2 in December contests and 4-0 as an underdog.
Notre Dame is on “under” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 15-7-1 in non-conference games and 4-0 after a straight-up loss. Hawaii has stayed below the total in seven of its last nine non-conference games, eight of its last 11 after a straight-up loss and nine of its last 12 on artificial turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HAWAII and UNDER