Dr Bob
Opinion
Hawaii 26 Notre Dame (-2.0) 23 (at Hawaii Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Dec-08
The line on this game opened with the home team Hawaii being favored by 2 points and now Notre Dame is a 2 point favorite. I think the oddsmakers had this one correct when they opened Hawaii as the small favorite and the Warriors are the percentage side in this game against the perennially overrated Irish. Notre Dame wasn’t as overrated this season as they are in most years due to how bad they were last season, but the Irish are not much better than an average team. Notre Dame averaged a modest 5.1 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, but I decided to take their pathetic effort against USC (91 total yards at 1.9 yppl) out of the equation for this game since USC was extremely dominating this year. Even so, the Irish are still 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and they’ll be up against a Hawaii stop unit that yielded a decent 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. So, Hawaii has a 0.2 yppl advantage when Notre Dame has the ball and Irish quarterback Jimmy Clausen is interception prone (17 interceptions in 12 games).
Notre Dame does have a solid defense that gave up just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and Hawaii has a negative offensive rating for the season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack). However, Hawaii’s offense got much better when Greg Alexander was installed as the Warriors’ quarterback midway through their week 9 win over Nevada. In those final 5 ½ games Alexander averaged 7.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and Hawaii is 0.3 yppl better than average with Alexander at quarterback. Alexander also remedied Hawaii’s biggest problem, which was interceptions. Hawaii quarterbacks threw a combined 19 interceptions in the first 7 ½ games of the season, but Alexander threw just 2 picks in the final 5 ½ games. Hawaii’s offense with Alexander at quarterback is just as good as Notre Dame’s defense.
Not only does Hawaii have a slight 0.2 yppl overall advantage from the line of scrimmage over Notre Dame, but the Warriors are much less likely to turn the ball over than the Irish now that Alexander is at quarterback. Notre Dame does have a significant edge in special teams, which will help with field position, but my math model favors Hawaii by 1 ½ points at home – which is about what the oddsmakers had the line at. Notre Dame must have a lot of alumni that love to gamble, because the line on the Irish in bowl games is always off. Notre Dame has lost 9 consecutive bowl games straight up (1-8 ATS) and they’ve dropped 6 straight to the number due to bad lines. In addition to the line value, bowl teams playing in their home stadium are 14-5 ATS as long as they’re not favored by 7 points or more and teams that end the regular season by scoring less than 7 points (the Irish scored 3 points against USC) are just 3-15 ATS in bowl games as a favorite or small dog of less than 3 points. I’ve had Best Bets against the Irish in a few of those games, but I’ll resist making this one a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Hawaii at -1 or better and I’d consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +3 points and a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (at -1.15 odds or better). I have no opinion on the total.
