Chase Systems: Quesion For Those That Use And/Or Follow Them Regarding Sides & Totals

[ToddInVegas]

Fully,

I completely agree. Who wouldnt want to sit back and win say $50 per night on a chase system. The theory of "I bet small" goes out the window when you hit game 4, 5 or 6 etc. In the example I quoted SSI "bet" $2246 on his 6th game to win back all the money that he lost and end up +$50. That is a horrible idea no matter how much money you have or how small you are playing.

Lets take that last game he bet on. The odds for that game was AZ under 9 +100. Essentially he made a bet of AZ under 9 -4492. You dont get credit for haing bet the previous 5 games. You are betting on the outcome of 1 game, regardless of previous wagers. The outcome of that bet (if a win) would have netted him +$50 on the Chase.

He bet $2246 to win $50 @ AZ un 9 (or $4492 to win $100 for simplicity sake) I realize he would win a lot more then $50 on this bet, however he would have lost a great deal on prior wagers. I'm trying to illustrate that he is taking one game, making a horrible -EV bet hoping to end up +$50

I could have bet that game $50 to win $50 @ AZ un 9 +100 (or $100 to win $100) as it was widely available.

Who made the better wager?

He is betting a game he could have had for +100 and betting it at -4492. No question that is a -EV bet. If I was going to lay -4492 on a game it would be USC on the ML playing a High School team.

Chases look attractive because you can look back and say "it hasnt lost in 2.5 years" but it will eventually lose and playing a chase will crush you.

 

[tatehill2000]

SSI, Perfec timeing,,, Im glad you chimed in ,and so sad that many dont GET the point with chases,,,,

You dumfks are PINNING all of your ridiculous points ON one system,,t here are a thousand,, i use a handful of my own creation,,

my quitfactor for one,, I tweek it every year, and it does work,,,

Many of you are creating criticism on 1 formula that goes to a 6 deep progression,,, I use a formula that is a 1 time progression, and ALSO 1 in Hockey and football that is a 2 time progression,,

What ??? WHAT??? is that an Incredible risk amount??? lol No, guess what it hits over 98% you bunch of jerkoff retards! divide that into your math,,,

I dont post the system because of the stiff fks that are on the boards,, Ive done my time, Ive done my research, and it s a pathetic sad day that good people cant share, and support newideas,,,

Whale,, I was only posting those 2 capping scenarios for illistration purposes ONly, I know what scalpers do, and how pathetic it is, but my point is that (EACLY WHAT YOU SAID) its Virtually impossible for MOST to do it!!

Thats why some progressions dOOOO have value, they put mathmatical edges within the reach of the masses,,,,

i am sooo finished discussing this issue, but most of you can ONLY say,
"blah blah blah progression is the end its bad,, blah blah"

that is an old record that is gay and played OUT, there are scenerios that do Pay, (I have developed a few) SSI has also,

anyway I end this note with the same sad words,,,,

shame shame, on those of you that dont ask, that dont research, that dont give a fair shake to the Possibilities that are OUT there,,,

I DONT necessarily support a 6 time progression, thats not my style, I am a 1-2 timer,, thats it,,, and I HAVE made bank, and continue to do so,,,

dont believe me,,, lolol,, good,,,

go bury your head in the sand,,,
tater:lol:

 

[FullyEclipsed]

I can't speak for him but for me not too long (within a year) ago I played systems of this same manner.

I agree 100% that chasing 6 deep @ that price is crazy and makes no sense. I had to really dive into the numbers and the actual system to see that there are better ways mathematically to get a series win.

Believe me I want to voice my opinion a million times over on that high risk stuff but it's their choice just as I chose to play that game..

 

[ToddInVegas]

Tater, I read your post twice and I'm still not sure what you are trying to say. If systems work for you, great...do your thing. I think the difference in what you are talking about and what SSI is doing comes down to martingale. You stated that you are a 1-2 timer and dont favor a 6 progression. Sounds like you are playing a system of handicapping for lack of a better term, rather then a chase system.

Personally I see little value in wagering on a game where you are laying horrible odds to make back money that you have lost.

 

[FullyEclipsed]

FWIW I love playing a 1-2 on games that I have pegged as an O/U.

Agree capping involved there.

 

[ToddInVegas]

While I still believe that a 2 game chase could still be considered a bad bet it likely wont bury you. A lot of people play 1 unit games, 2 units etc based on their confidence of the strength of their play. If you are doing it from a capping standpoint it is one thing, if its because the team hasnt lost on back to back Fridays in 3 years, its a completely different thing.

If you feel the play is worth 2 units, bet it. If its just betting 2 units because you bet 1 on a previous game, not sure that is the best idea.

There is little I can say that will change someones mind regarding Chase Systems and Martingale Systems. Everyone has to find out on their own I suppose.

 

[Seymour]

I have played a dog chase in baseball, only playing on teams that will be dogs for an entire series. I have other filters to limit the plays and am just looking for the dog to win one game in a 3 or 4 game series. If the series ends with a sweep, I chalk it up as a loss and move on to the next group of series. With a 3 game series, the most you can lose is 7 units (1,2,4 unit progression).

I have used this for the last 4 years and ended up 50,20,35 units the first 3 years, last year ended at -10 units.

I've played your chase every year - I still remember two years ago that Royals +200 Game 2 against the Twins and Santana and blowing it and then losing a four game chase - the first time in history the Twins swept the Royals on the road - that fucker swung some 17 units

If you're not a rookie and you have the bankroll and stomach baseball provides some great chases - I would never chase another sport - though the NHL 4D Chase went 170 or so and nothing one year.

 

[FullyEclipsed]

I don't disagree with most of the warnings in this thread but chases are not always bad if the proper thought has been put into them.

Tater is 100% right that stuff falls into and out of favor.

Have a bailout plan! Don't let the wagers get too big. Understand the risk/reward and....

Goddammit where is whalechasewager? That fool can teach everyone a thing or two..

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

As some of you might be aware... Ace-Ace started a $10 chase thread back in 3/02/08 with a $2,000 Bankroll...It is strictly for FUN. His theory is that in his handicapping lifetime, he never recalled losing 7 straight best bets of each given day.. Sometime last year, he was able to increase the wager from 10 to $20 as the bankroll grew... Today, the bankroll is somwhere over $2,900.. Last month, he faced his first and only bet #7 and it won... Besides that one, he has only gone over bet #5 perhaps twice... Anyway it is fun to tail as long as your set your initial limit and know exactly what is at stake... Thread Below...

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=565315&page=85

 

[whalewager]

You guys all sound like politicians here. Twisting words and callin people names...

Chase systems don't work...they may work on paper but not with real money...no person is going to risk 2 dimes to win 50 because its the “right“ game...

You guys can talk all day about how smart you are but in the end...you are scratching a broke ass just like the rest of us...

And now...I have soccer practice...peace

whale c wager

 

[FullyEclipsed]

You guys all sound like politicians here. Twisting words and callin people names...

Chase systems don't work...they may work on paper but not with real money...no person is going to risk 2 dimes to win 50 because its the “right“ game...

You guys can talk all day about how smart you are but in the end...you are scratching a broke ass just like the rest of us...

And now...I have soccer practice...peace

whale c wager

Talk about acting like a politician. I showed a very basic way that I figured even you would understand but continue on saying 2 dimes for $50.

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Forgot to add. YES I do it with real money- since this seems to be your only other argument.

 

[whalewager]

Yeah...good for you...you have this gambling thing all figgered out...

 

[ole44bill]

Before trying this seriously, you should look up Martingale Betting Systems. Wikipedia has a good writeup;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

It doesn't work in casinos because they limit bet sizes. It won't work in sports because you will only have a finite amount of money in offshore books.

Using this system will guarantee your accounts will someday hit zero. Your only hope is that you die before this happens.

 

[steaktartar]

like i said its all good on paper.......it is like a race track system..bet the 4 horse every race he will win some race on some day........but at what point is it beyond reasonable/feasible

 

[tatehill2000]

the JOKE here is that MANY seem to think a progression system has to ALWAYS be straight martingale,,, thats just not the case, with me, with SSI, and with many others that are doing this,

again, thats all any of the detractors can say,,, geesh,,,, stop the madness and open your eyes,,, NOONE is suggesting to double ones losses infinitely

the only one saying that are the goofballs that say progressions dont work,,,##)

I handicap a scenario then apply my progression, as mentioned 1 time progression in some instances, and 2 time progression in others,,

NOONE is argueing that a straight double system is the pot of gold so stop saying it,,

there are many ways to skin a cat, this is one, and for some it can be profitable.
tater

 

[Santo]

You can post all the bold text you like, it doesn't make money. Post the math, and you might be taken seriously.

Unless you're arguing for some kind of correlation where the failure of event 1 increases the likelyhood of event 2, there is no logic in this. Even if you could argue that, I'd want to check and make sure that you wouldn't be better off passing on event 1 and just betting event 2.

There has been much work done by math and psychology scholars on the subject of progressions, and quite honestly, their word carries much more weight. Just like if I was to quote Einstein in an academic text it would have much more weight than Wikipedia.

 

[SSI]

santo, the math for me is real simple...

a Loss will cost around (-70 units) depending on the juice that you pay, if my angle hits better than 70:1 its profitable...

what is so freaking hard about this and where is Hache, he started this thread and abondoned ship..

i think you guys are way off base to what i was personally saying.... Im giving you something very specific...

cut it any way that you want to: Im telling you a nba or mlb team will not play 11 straight overs or unders.... at least they wont 1 in 70 times....

if you doubt it, look it up..


and to say its only on Paper is stupid..

game 1 $50
game 2 $100
game 3 $200
game 4 $400
game 5 $800
game 6 $1600

then add in the juice that you spent on the losers in the sequence... what is so freaking hard about that...

thats the way i play it...

SSI

 

[TomGshotput]

the JOKE here is that MANY seem to think a progression system has to ALWAYS be straight martingale,,, thats just not the case, with me, with SSI, and with many others that are doing this,

The real JOKE is that the only thing that matters is betting on something that has a positive expected value. If you can do that, you will win money no matter how you vary your bet size. If you bet on something that has a negative expected value you will lose money no matter how you vary your bet size. Varying bet sizes can maximize or minimize earnings and losses, but it can not change the overall chances to being in your favor if it would not be a good bet without using the chase system

Eclipse has at least written his views coherently, so while I doubt he will change any opinions I am curious to see the exact formula he follows

 

[TomGshotput]

Im telling you a nba or mlb team will not play 11 straight overs or unders.... at least they wont 1 in 70 times....

Again, if every single bet you made following this system was only $50, not doubling up after a loss, what would the total profits or losses have been?