Chase Systems: Quesion For Those That Use And/Or Follow Them Regarding Sides & Totals

[Iceman]

SSI,
Here is the big problem, you say you are 42-0 but the second you lose you are now 42-1 and down 30+ units and in my book 42-1 should never be down 30 units.

How many chase systems does one have to attmpe before they hit the big one that "supposedly" works? How many 30 unit chase system losses does one have to endure?

Bottom line 42-0 is just a bunch of pretty numbers that still mean you are one loss from being 2 years away of winning again to do JUST GET BACK TO EVEN.

 

[Akillies]

:nono5: not quite...I've got a ways to go bud


QL mentioned some guys would be in town this weekend...will you be around?

yes, i was hoping you would be around. do you want us to call you?

 

[Iceman]

I have another one for you even better, what if you are on your last leg of your chase and the line on the game is so ridiclous like and over/under NBA total of 5 pts (I know not realisitc just being hypothetical), now what do you do, according to you have to play the under, now what. What do you do if your system calls for it?

Okay I know you are saying this isnt realisitc and your right but either is the fact thinking you can't lose after winning so many in a row.

 

[douglas]

friends don't let friends chase .......ever

 

[SSI]

ok this is my last post on this...

i say its profitable to fade all Over and Under streaks in the NBA or MLB that reach 5 games.... you then fade 6 times...

Ice, 42-0 is the record this year........... its much much better than that over the last 10yrs..

i asked someone to prove me wrong................ nobody did.......... case closed for me..

have a good one fellas.

you guys forgot one big thing..... i gave you a very specific angle to look at... i was not talking about handicapping or chases in general but a very specific one to chase..

SSI

 

[whalewager]

I don't think anyone that disagreed with you disagreed with your system.

What we are disagreeing with is whether or not you do it with actual money.

Doing it on paper is one thing, doing it with real cheddar is a whole nudda story boss. Sooner or later...all chase systems will end up with the chasee hanging from a tree.

 

[Santo]

SSI: Why will only 5 work, why not 4, or 6 or 3?

The fact you put it like this and tell people to go look it up makes me pretty sure you've backfitted and found a ruleset that would make it work.

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Alright let me shift the mindset off doing a single team chase and turning it into a 2 team parlay @ +260 odds. After a 6th loss you are down a whole whopping 6 units..

So lets take it a step further and after a game 5 loss the money that is lost gets divided by 2. Half continues on the same chase/ Half starts a new series.

After loss 5 down 4 units to win back

a) 2 units (lost) plus 1 unit (to win) = 3 units divided by 2.6 = 1.15 (risk on next play)
a) Continues on chase games 6-10

b) 2 units(lost) plus 1 unit(to win)= 3 units div by 2.6 = 1.15 (risk on next play)
b) Starts a new series

As far as breaking the numbers all the way out and putting up every single rule in place it is near to impossible. I am playing WITH the trends. There is splits in place all the way down the list until a series is complete to avoid that big 70 unit loss.

It's not all about playing thousands of dollars to win $20.

Let me just add that this is not something I play on just random shit. I have a database tracker that I use and it gives me the trends.

 

[wrongturn]

Mathematically chasing systems don't work. So if you want to use one to make a living, forget it. But it can be fun, for a few months, or even a few years, as long as you keep the bankroll small enough.

 

[SSI]

whale, i could care less if anyone thinks i play it for real or not.. matters little to me.... i play it to win only $50 and its sort of side money right now.

santo: 4 wont work because there have been too many 10 game streaks, throughout the past years.. 6 wont work because there arent enough streaks that make it to 6 to be profitable, when you do take a loss... 5 is the optimal place to start..

sure ive back tested this, wouldnt that be a wise thing to do...


43-0 this year now..


SSI

 

[TomGshotput]

What would the profits or losses be if you just bet $50 (or $100 or whatever) on each game, rather than chasing?

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Annnd what's your point?

 

[TomGshotput]

the point is that if the system has picked winners at a good enough rate, it still doesn't prove that chasing each loss is the correct bet

 

[ToddInVegas]

SSI, you are not being accurate. You played this Chase system last year and it lost




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Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball
<HR style="COLOR: #2b295e" SIZE=1>yes today im going to have to make my third play (f) on the season. Fortunately i have won the other two...

as i stated earlier, im prepared to make this bet... a good chunk of this will be with a local today and the rest is at betjam and greek...

for next season, im looking into the best way to play this and regardless of this game, i will be playing this next season...

if you notice, the dbacks have not played 10 straight Overs, so this play falls into the old "Action Chase" system, if some of you recall that.... and no team has played 11 straight Overs or Unders this season and only one has played that many in the last 3 season.........

for next season, ill be playing the same system, fade a team that has a streak of 5 straight Overs or Unders, for a max of 6 times....... and the other part will be based on Handicapping.... The handicapping side will be limited to only 1 or 2 open at a time and the rest will be the fading of the streak of 5.......

well enough rambling, on to the play...


Record for thread: 28-0 (+28.00 units) (+$1400) (3 pending)


plays for monday sept 1

chase 24
f) dbacks Under 9 (+1.00) $2246 to win $2246

this is quoted and taken at greek and betjam, the remaining part of this play will be with my Local... he may have the line 9.5 (-1.10).... as all of his lines are (-1.10) for baseball totals and the line is shaded to the Over.. so we will see...

chase 30
b) padres Over 7.5 (-1.20) $126 to win $105

the reds are off today, so chase 27 will resume on tuesday with play (d)



for anyone really following this closely, this Ariz Under, came about by Ariz playing 4 straight Unders, preceding this streak... i went with them to play another Under.......... there was a reason for this, in fact i have been doing this for quite a while............ if you need some more explanation, let me know...

for now ill pull for RJ and Pinerio............ Webb really killed this last night..

im rolling the dice today, so lets see what happens..


SSI





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Arizona lost this game and you lost the chase. The series loss cost you $4442 or 88.84 units @$50 per unit in which you bet $2246 on the last game to end up $50 ahead...not exactly good money management. You also lost 120+ units on your runline chase. I can look it up if need be. All the small little wins were wiped out with one series loss.

The problem with the chase systems is that you cannot string together -EV plays and expect they will become +EV.

Chase systems will eventually crush your bankroll....FACT

 

[FullyEclipsed]

You come up with a 100% mechanical system that puts out a win rate of over 53% and then we'll talk.

I put 5 minutes into updating my database a day and spread out my losses for low risk..

I'd love it if someone tried to debate me on the numbers I posted and not just on the vanilla systems of chasing a single game.

 

[TomGshotput]

You come up with a 100% mechanical system that puts out a win rate of over 53% and then we'll talk.

Maybe SSI found one

And if it drops to 50%, eventually he'll be hit with a $3 300 loss

 

[FullyEclipsed]

I am well aware of what SSI does. I have read his posts for years. Hell you guys can easily find crazy shit on here that I have done..

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Systems are simply a different mind set that some have and some don't. And to me there is no reason to try to convince either side is right in that way of thinking.

If someone wants to have a serious debate on the numbers I posted I am game. There is easy to find flaws on what's there..

 

[ToddInVegas]

A further comment on backtesting. Backtesting is a way to make your theory work. However the problem is that it shows it has worked in the past but has no bearing whether it will work in the future.

Santo asked why not chase after 4 games and you responded that there has been too many losses with 4 games. My point is that at some period in time chasing after 4 games probably seemed like a good idea because it hadnt lost that often....then it lost frequently making it a bad system.

At some point in the future I can almost guarantee that "chasing after 5 ov/un for 6 more games" will also lose to frequently to make it no longer a good system play.

Also I understand that the example I found of your chase last year did not meet your current criteria of waiting for 5 ov/un and fading for 6 games. I am simply pointing out that you thought you had a chase system that would provide you with extra money and it simply crushed you in one series loss.

I guess you can say that you've been called out

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Todd,

I can understand what you are doing but I will say this. Sometimes the chases start coming so easy that a person loses sight on the rules in place and get burned. I can tell you that is probably what happened in that case above.