CFB Formula 2014

[asufan550]

Week 12 (cont'd):

5 Units:
Miami (Fl) +2.5 (-58.5)

4 Units:
Boise State -13 (-54.5)
Arizona State -7 (-34.5)

3 Units:
Illinois +3.5 (-15)
Western Kentucky -8 (-30.5)
Miami (Oh) +19 (-2.5)
Arkansas pick (-16)

2 Units:
Florida -7 (-27.5)
Indiana +7 (-17.5)
Oklahoma -13 (-43.5)
Texas -2.5 (-14.5)
South Florida -10.5 (-27.5)

1 Unit:
Pittsburgh +2 (-8)
Nevada +2.5 (-7.5)
Alabama -10 (-27.5)
Georgia -2.5 (-10)

 

[TheFalls]

yowza!
You have The U as -58'???

 

[asufan550]

Yeah - it's obviously too high as far as a line goes, but it's representative of the difference between the teams in the areas I take into account. FWIW, I've got Miami rated as the best team in the country after adjusting for strength of schedule and ignoring the records (Florida State is 28th).

 

[TheFalls]

I want to pick a play or two out of this system, because you seem to do adjust things differently, which I like...but the system isn't producing just yet. and the season is almost over.

 

[asufan550]

Week 12:
5-12, -20.08

YTD:
77-86-4, -35.83

This has (obviously) gone terrible this year. I don't know what has happened - my correlations and predicted outcomes are as, or more, accurate as they've been in years past, but the only part that matters (the picks) have been shit. Maybe I was exceptionally lucky the first two years I did this, or maybe I've been unlucky this year - probably somewhere in the middle. I'm going to finish out the season, but this has been a huge letdown.

 

[asufan550]

Week 13:

4 Units:
Syracuse +7.5 (-30)
Texas Tech +1 (-18.5)

2 Units:
Western Michigan pick (-10)
Wisconsin -10 (-25.5)
Middle Tennessee -7 (-25)
Cincinnati -9.5 (-31.5)

1 Unit:
Michigan State -22 (-47)
Northwestern pick (-3.5)

 

[asufan550]

Week 13:
5-3, +1

YTD:
82-89-4, -34.83

 

[asufan550]

Week 14:

2 Units:
South Florida +11 (-5.5)
Kent State +3 (-8)
Navy -8.5 (-31.5)
Arizona State +2.5 (-10.5)

1 Unit:
Nebraska pick (-10)
Massachusetts +2.5 (-8.5)
Virginia pick (-6.5)

 

[asufan550]

Week 14 (cont'd):

4 Units:
Mississippi +2.5 (-19)
Miami (Fl) -9.5 (-53.5)

3 Units:
Purdue +3 (-11.5)
Wyoming +4.5 (-11)

2 Units:
West Virginia -13 (-34.5)
Syracuse +12 (-7)
BYU +3.5 (-8)

1 Unit:
Kansas State -27 (-49.5)
Oregon -19 (-35)