CFB Formula 2014

[asufan550]

Week 3:

Thursday:

1 Unit:
Houston +17 (pick)

*Not a fan of betting Thursday night games so going to limit them to 1-2 units going forward

 

[asufan550]

Week 3 (cont'd):

3 Units:
Northern Illinois -10 (-29.5)
Arizona -18 (-68)

2 Units:
Marshall -20.5 (-49)
Syracuse -5 (-25)
Arkansas pick (-9)
Navy -9.5 (-26)
Oklahoma -21 (-56)

1 Unit:
UCF/Missouri O54.5 (83.5)
Western Michigan/Idaho U60 (38)
Southern Miss/Alabama O56 (82.5)
Nevada/Arizona O63 (83)

 

[indiana]

ASU........BOL with your action this week..........indy

 

[paulfmf]

Did something happen to Alabama game? I have total: 47.5? Thanks.

 

[palehose1]

Week 3 (cont'd):

3 Units:
Northern Illinois -10 (-29.5)
Arizona -18 (-68)

2 Units:
Marshall -20.5 (-49)
Syracuse -5 (-25)
Arkansas pick (-9)
Navy -9.5 (-26)
Oklahoma -21 (-56)

1 Unit:
UCF/Missouri O54.5 (83.5)
Western Michigan/Idaho U60 (38)
Southern Miss/Alabama O56 (82.5)
Nevada/Arizona O63 (83)

Nice Looking card Except Syracuse and Navy IMO BOL

 

[asufan550]

Week 3:
8-3-1, +9.5

YTD:
18-13-1, +9.6

 

[SundayTiger]

Week 3:
8-3-1, +9.5

YTD:
18-13-1, +9.6

Nice work. I knew you would turn it around after breaking even thru the first two weeks.

As the weeks go by and there is more game data available for you formula, are you seeing a better results? Have you ever broke down your record by each month?

 

[indiana]

ASU.......nicely done..........BOL with action this week...........indy

 

[asufan550]

Nice work. I knew you would turn it around after breaking even thru the first two weeks.

As the weeks go by and there is more game data available for you formula, are you seeing a better results? Have you ever broke down your record by each month?

The idea is that plays get better with more data, yes. Right now I'm primarily using 2013 numbers because there's too much noise in using 1-3 games samples of this year's numbers.
Over the last two seasons, I've had three losing weeks after week six (of 17 possible weeks, so winning money 82% of the time), which is when I become more confident in the current year's numbers, vs four losing weeks in the first five (of nine possible weeks, losing money 44% of the time). There have been a bunch of changes (improvements, I hope) to the formula I use, though, so I'm optimistic that I can have a good start and finish this year.

 

[asufan550]

Week 4:

5 Units:
Missouri -13.5 (-67.5)

4 Units:
Northern Illinois +13.5 (-21)

3 Units:
Oklahoma -7.5 (-32.5)

2 Units:
Middle Tennessee +12 (-8)
Georgia Southern -2.5 (-43)
Arizona -7.5 (-28)

1 Unit:
Old Dominion +6.5 (-29)
Appalachian State +1.5 (-32)
UNLV/Houston U62.5 (45)
Oregon -23 (-45.5)

 

[TheFalls]

Week 4:

5 Units:
Missouri -13.5 (-67.5)
QUOTE]

This is really your line? Come on...

 

[asufan550]

Week 4:

5 Units:
Missouri -13.5 (-67.5)
QUOTE]


This is really your line? Come on...

It is. That's not necessarily the expected outcome, but that's what my formula(s) is calculating as a point differential between the teams.

 

[paulfmf]

GL ASU. What does the 550 mean? Just curious. I think I've got the ASU Fan part. Haaaaa

 

[PonyPlayer]

Week 4:
4 Units:
Northern Illinois +13.5 (-21)

this has to rely on last years numbers. UNI isn't the same w/o Lynch. Arkansas is improved. Last year? Yes. -21 this year??? No way.

 

[TheFalls]

It is. That's not necessarily the expected outcome, but that's what my formula(s) is calculating as a point differential between the teams.

I mean-stick with the formula. But that line.
It's outrageous.

You have higher point differentials than that?

 

[asufan550]

Week 4:
5-5, -7.4

YTD:
25-20-1, +2.2

Obviously a bad week, and a lot of my numbers were significantly off.
Falls - generally no, but I have seen numbers in the 70s and 80s for extreme mismatches - it's rare, though.
Pony - it was a mix of last year and this year, though more reliant on last year because of sample size
Paul - 550 was the radio station ASU was on when I was a kid, and for whatever reason it's easy for me to remember so I've stuck with it

 

[asufan550]

record should be:
23-18-1, +2.2

 

[achokshi]

So after this week you're going to start weighting your system inputs towards this year's data? I'd like to follow because I suck at betting these college games but I didn't know if it'd be better to start this week or the next.

 

[asufan550]

So after this week you're going to start weighting your system inputs towards this year's data? I'd like to follow because I suck at betting these college games but I didn't know if it'd be better to start this week or the next.

I've been using 2014 data, just not exclusively due to sample size issues. This week it'll be around 70% based on 2014.

 

[asufan550]

Week 5:

3 Units:
Georgia Southern -17.5 (-50)

1 Unit:
Texas Tech +14 (pick)
Arizona State +3 (-105) (-15*)

*This number is including Kelly - downgraded from 3 unit to 1 unit play