Since I started tracking it, I've averaged 12 plays per week (bowls are counted as one week) over 40 weeks. Including this season, I've won 52.7% of all bets I've tracked (pushes excluded) for an ROI of 6.32%, and have historically hit 3-5 unit plays at a very high rate while this year I'm 13-21 (38%), and -28.75 units on my larger plays. Maybe I've been too aggressive this year. I'm not sure what the problem is - I've made some small adjustments, but nothing drastic, and my results (expected point differential and points scored vs actual point differential and points scored) are right in line with previous years, and are better in some cases. I'm confident that things will improve.
Since I started tracking it, I've averaged 12 plays per week (bowls are counted as one week) over 40 weeks. Including this season, I've won 52.7% of all bets I've tracked (pushes excluded) for an ROI of 6.32%, and have historically hit 3-5 unit plays at a very high rate while this year I'm 13-21 (38%), and -28.75 units on my larger plays. Maybe I've been too aggressive this year. I'm not sure what the problem is - I've made some small adjustments, but nothing drastic, and my results (expected point differential and points scored vs actual point differential and points scored) are right in line with previous years, and are better in some cases. I'm confident that things will improve.
I've noticed Georgia State and Georgia Southern tend to be a favorites of the formula, as does pretty much anybody playing Idaho. Because it's stat based and adjusted for strength of schedule, I'm guessing/hoping that those teams are being undervalued (overvalued in the case of Idaho) by linesmakers, but that hasn't necessarily been the case so far. One particularly odd thing is that my formula has Miami (fl) as the best team in the country (wins and losses not taken into account) which doesn't make much sense until you look at the numbers: They produce big plays 19.6% of the time, and allow them just 6.6%, gain 8 yards per play, and allow 5 (all of those numbers are adjusted based on their schedule), and have a relatively neutral turnover margin. The rest of the top 10 based on those numbers for whatever it's worth:
Marshall
Georgia
Auburn
Stanford
Alabama
Mississippi
Baylor
Michigan State
Oregon
Week 8:
6-7, -2.4
YTD:
52-55-3, -24.05
Good news: 36-25, +19.61 on two and three unit plays
Terrible news: 0-8, -35.7 on four and five unit plays
I don't know what the issue is on the larger plays - I've looked at everything as many ways as I can think to. Unfortunately, there's a pretty significant amount of luck involved in all this, and I've been unlucky. Still hoping to turn a profit this season.
6-7, -2.4
YTD:
52-55-3, -24.05
Good news: 36-25, +19.61 on two and three unit plays
Terrible news: 0-8, -35.7 on four and five unit plays
I don't know what the issue is on the larger plays - I've looked at everything as many ways as I can think to. Unfortunately, there's a pretty significant amount of luck involved in all this, and I've been unlucky. Still hoping to turn a profit this season.
Week 9 (cont'd):
4 Units:
Arizona State -3 (-31.5)
3 Units:
Navy -9 (-38.5)
2 Units:
UCLA -14 (-39)
Georgia Southern -17.5 (-34.5)
Old Dominion +13.5 (-9.5)
Ohio State -13.5 (-30.5)
Nevada -2.5 (-23)
1 Unit:
Nebraska -20.5 (-53.5)
Texas +10 (-10)
Akron -2.5 (-11)
West Virginia pick (-10.5)
Washington State +3 (-6)
4 Units:
Arizona State -3 (-31.5)
3 Units:
Navy -9 (-38.5)
2 Units:
UCLA -14 (-39)
Georgia Southern -17.5 (-34.5)
Old Dominion +13.5 (-9.5)
Ohio State -13.5 (-30.5)
Nevada -2.5 (-23)
1 Unit:
Nebraska -20.5 (-53.5)
Texas +10 (-10)
Akron -2.5 (-11)
West Virginia pick (-10.5)
Washington State +3 (-6)
Week 10:
1 Unit:
Georgia Southern -24 (-57.5)
I appreciate the support. I'm getting a line of Florida State by 2.5 - something like 25-23 as a final - so no play for me there. FWIW, that number is based on a 65/35 split favoring home and road stats vs overall numbers. The number goes to Florida State by 4 if I only use overall numbers, but I think Louisville is closer to legit than they've gotten credit for. I have Louisville with a slight edge in turnovers (+.5), and a 380-327 total yardage edge, but running 12 more plays (62-74) which gives Florida State the yards per play edge (more big plays).
1 Unit:
Georgia Southern -24 (-57.5)
I appreciate the support. I'm getting a line of Florida State by 2.5 - something like 25-23 as a final - so no play for me there. FWIW, that number is based on a 65/35 split favoring home and road stats vs overall numbers. The number goes to Florida State by 4 if I only use overall numbers, but I think Louisville is closer to legit than they've gotten credit for. I have Louisville with a slight edge in turnovers (+.5), and a 380-327 total yardage edge, but running 12 more plays (62-74) which gives Florida State the yards per play edge (more big plays).
Week 10 (cont'd):
4 Units:
New Mexico +1.5 (-36)
Old Dominion +7.5 (-21)
3 Units:
Northwestern +4 (-20.5)
Boston College +3 (-20.5)
Miami (fl) -15 (-60)
Florida Atlantic -4.5 (-32)
2 Units:
Oklahoma -15.5 (-43)
South Alabama +7 (-14)
Mississippi -1.5 (-14.5)
1 Unit:
Texas State -7 (-21)
San Jose State +6 (-11)
4 Units:
New Mexico +1.5 (-36)
Old Dominion +7.5 (-21)
3 Units:
Northwestern +4 (-20.5)
Boston College +3 (-20.5)
Miami (fl) -15 (-60)
Florida Atlantic -4.5 (-32)
2 Units:
Oklahoma -15.5 (-43)
South Alabama +7 (-14)
Mississippi -1.5 (-14.5)
1 Unit:
Texas State -7 (-21)
San Jose State +6 (-11)
Week 11:
4 Units:
North Texas +3 (-17.5)
UCLA -6.5 (-27.5)
Oregon -8 (-32)
3 Units:
Louisiana Tech -4 (-19)
Syracuse +3.5 (-14.5)
UNLV +4.5 (-12.5)
2 Units:
South Alabama +10 (-5.5)
Georgia Southern -14.5 (-33.5)
Colorado State -18 (-50)
1 Unit:
Minnesota pick (-13.5)
Notre Dame +2.5 (-10.5)
Northwestern +1.5 (-11)
Louisville -3 (-14)
4 Units:
North Texas +3 (-17.5)
UCLA -6.5 (-27.5)
Oregon -8 (-32)
3 Units:
Louisiana Tech -4 (-19)
Syracuse +3.5 (-14.5)
UNLV +4.5 (-12.5)
2 Units:
South Alabama +10 (-5.5)
Georgia Southern -14.5 (-33.5)
Colorado State -18 (-50)
1 Unit:
Minnesota pick (-13.5)
Notre Dame +2.5 (-10.5)
Northwestern +1.5 (-11)
Louisville -3 (-14)
