CFB Formula 2014

[achokshi]

Nice work last night ASU. Can't wait to see this system kick it into the next gear, one of the most under the radar threads out there. Keep it up man, appreciate your work!

 

[asufan550]

Good start to the week last night - thanks for the appreciation, achokshi.

For whatever reason there are a lot of plays this week.

Week 5 (cont'd):

4 Units:
Oregon State +9 (-25)

3 Units:
Kentucky -17 (-51.5)
Georgia -17 (-51)
Temple -6 (-36)
Southern Mississippi +8.5 (-13.5)
Clemson -14.5 (-53.5)
Duke +6.5 (-27)

2 Units:
North Carolina State +18.5 (-3.5)
South Alabama -4 (-22)
Texas State +3 (-40)
Notre Dame -9 (-25)

1 Unit:
Middle Tennessee/ODU U69 (49)
Fresno State -4.5 (-115) (-17)
Western Michigan +21 (-115) (-17.5)
Bowling Green/Massachusetts U69 (50.5)
FIU/UAB U54 (23)
Missouri/South Carolina O61.5 (87.5)
San Diego State -18 (-49.5)
Baylor -21.5 (-47)
Nevada -5 (-24.5)

 

[paulfmf]

Mid Ten right on the number. Those kinda scores make me think I prob shouldn't bet. Damn.

 

[achokshi]

On it all today with you ASU. I got the under of MTU/ODU at 69.5 last night!! What a close one.

 

[achokshi]

ended up getting 15.5 on clemson, dammit... let's go oregon state!!

 

[asufan550]

Week 5:
11-10-2, -2.05

YTD:

34-28-3, +.15

I'm eliminating O/U bets going forward (5-7-3, -2.7 with a couple of very fortunate pushes), and with more data the plays should get better.

 

[asufan550]

Week 6:

2 Units:
FIU +6.5 (-13.5)

 

[achokshi]

BOL this weekend. Lot of great games

 

[asufan550]

Week 6 (cont'd):

4 Units:
Texas A&M +2.5 (-37)

3 Units:
Marshall -17.5 (-44)
Oregon State -6.5 (-26.5)
Georgia State +16 (-18.5)

2 Units:
San Diego State +3 (-34.5)
Colorado State -18 (-68)
Air Force +3.5 (-9)
Texas State -17 (-49.5)
Georgia Southern -19 (-50.5)
Utah +13 (-9.5)

1 Unit:
North Carolina +2.5 (-9.5)
Mississippi +4.5 (-12.5)
Appalachian State +3 (-7.5)
Miami (fl) +2 (-10.5)
California +3 (-13.5)

 

[TheFalls]

Most of your 2 Unit plays have larger differentials than your 3 Unit plays. What's the catch?

 

[asufan550]

Most of your 2 Unit plays have larger differentials than your 3 Unit plays. What's the catch?

At this point of the season I feel like I need to take into account who teams have played to generate their statistics. There's no easy way to adjust for strength of schedule until after this week, so it's less quantifiable. For example, Fresno State has played three good/very good teams (USC, Utah, Nebraska) whereas San Diego State has played one (Oregon State - I can see an argument for NC, but they aren't on the level of any of the three Fresno has played), so the assumption is the data Fresno State has generated is going to be skewed by their quality of competition. Most of these teams also haven't played enough home/road games to produce viable statistics, so I'm relying on their overall numbers more than I usually would. After this week, the strength of schedule can be quantifiably controlled for, and home/road stat validity will improve which should make the outputs better.

Also, once spreads get past a certain point (18-20+ points), unless betting on the dog, I use more of a ratio than straight differentials - basically, a 20 point differential has more value when the line is 5 (4x) than when it's 20 (1x).

 

[asufan550]

Week 6:
8-8, -1.2

YTD:
42-36-3, -1.05

 

[achokshi]

hey asu, anything for tonight's BYU UCF Game?

 

[asufan550]

Nothing for tonight's game - my numbers have no lean either way

 

[asufan550]

Posting plays for the weekend now. The difference between Thursday and Friday lines last week was big in a couple of places, and I'd rather get them now than take the chance. Also, I've looked at all of these from a number of different home/road ratios depending on how many games the teams have played, but just used a general point differential rather than average everything out, so the gaps on some of these won't always make sense based on the units, but the units are based on the overall picture.

Week 7:

4 Units:
Indiana +3 (-25.5)
Old Dominion +2.5 (-40)

3 Units:
Rice pick (-23.5)
Western Michigan +2 (-10.5)
Georgia Southern -23.5 (-86.5)
Memphis -8 (-43)
Penn State +1 (-27.5)
Mississippi +2 (-32.5)

2 Units:
Northwestern +4 (-15)
Akron -13.5 (-46.5)
Auburn -2.5 (-13)
Notre Dame -16 (-53.5)

1 Unit:
Temple -17.5 (-52.5)
Oregon -2 (-16.5)
California -3.5 (-13)
Nevada +2.5 (-10)

Discussion/questions are always welcome. I'd be happy to share specific numbers for individual matchups if anyone is curious.

 

[achokshi]

BOL with week 7 ASU. Should be a good week I like the card.

 

[asufan550]

Week 7:
4-12, -20.6

YTD:
46-48-3, -21.65

 

[asufan550]

Week 8:

4 Units:
New Mexico State +5 (-23.5)

3 Units:
South Florida -1.5 (-29)
Western Michigan +2 (-14)

2 Units:
Boise State -17 (-57.5)
Syracuse -6 (-27)
Troy -6.5 (-33)
UCLA -6.5 (-39)
Middle Tennessee pick (-20.5)
Arkansas +3.5 (-6.5)
Georgia State +20 (-2.5)

1 Unit:
Temple +7 (-8)
TCU -10 (-53.5)
Georgia Tech -1 (-10)

 

[indiana]

ASU...........good luck with your action this week end..............indy

 

[paulfmf]

ASU-has your formula always selected this many games?