Brainiac’s Winter Sports

[chriscol]

going from there my thoughts on shooting...not betting the winner, but who can potentially really go like 0 or 1 after what we have seen:for me its: Greis, Wolf, Fourcade, Slesinger...............Bjorn will have 2 or 3, all the russians have a combined 4 errors so far, Sikora 3 in total, Ferry is terrible (4+1 relay), Bergman is terrible (5 +3 relay), De frasne not sure, Hanevold (2, one of the best), Sikora 3 (is ok, but will again have about 2), Svendsson 7 !!! terrible

 

[TheBrainiac]

Lets try to predict something from the men race after seeing the conditions .

Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1201 Ole Einar Bjoerndalen -150 Risk To Win
1202 Michael Greis +134 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Ole Einar Bjoerndalen vs. Maxim Tchoudov
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1203 Ole Einar Bjoerndalen -170 Risk To Win
1204 Maxim Tchoudov +154 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Dmitri Iarochenko vs. Maxim Tchoudov
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1205 Dmitri Iarochenko -118 Risk To Win
1206 Maxim Tchoudov +102 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Carl Johan Bergman vs. Alexander Os
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1207 Carl Johan Bergman -121 Risk To Win
1208 Alexander Os +105 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Simon Fourcade vs. Vincent Defrasne
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1209 Simon Fourcade -112 Risk To Win
1210 Vincent Defrasne -104 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Tomasz Sikora vs. Michal Slesingr
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1211 Tomasz Sikora -112 Risk To Win
1212 Michal Slesingr -104 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Ivan Tcherezov vs. Halvard Hanevold
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1213 Ivan Tcherezov -139 Risk To Win
1214 Halvard Hanevold +123 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Bjoern Ferry vs. Halvard Hanevold
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1215 Bjoern Ferry -102 Risk To Win
1216 Halvard Hanevold -114 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Dmitri Iarochenko vs. Ivan Tcherezov
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1217 Dmitri Iarochenko -125 Risk To Win
1218 Ivan Tcherezov +109 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Tomasz Sikora vs. Vincent Defrasne
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1219 Tomasz Sikora -122 Risk To Win
1220 Vincent Defrasne +106 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Alexander Wolf vs. Michael Roesch
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1221 Alexander Wolf -143 Risk To Win
1222 Michael Roesch +127 Risk To Win
Thu 2/14 Halvard Hanevold vs. Emil Hegle Svendsen
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
08:15 AM 1223 Halvard Hanevold -121 Risk To Win
1224 Emil Hegle Svendsen +105 Risk To Win

 

[Cobalt]

first of all i have to say ia mexhausted: writing down split times and following this event live is really really tough and chaotic...so much going on at the same time all over the track...........besides that: it is realy extrem how much importance the shooting has...a top-runner can maybe get one error on a mediocre one, but as the matchups are usually set on the same skill-level that very rare

? Why you're writing down the split times?

Because of the penalty minutes, I was even thinking about backing all dogs on the card (ub had 20 h2hs or so) regardless of their previous results....
All in all I think that individual is the most difficult biathlon event to predict, not only because of the shooting, but also because of the longer distance and the importance of experience (usually).

 

[chriscol]

Glagow and Ioureva and a couple others (of the experienced) had in between shots really long waiting times when wind was coming up...this might be a big factor in these condition: being patient for shooting

 

[Cobalt]

Bjoerndalen no good record in individual (compared to the other races). He will be the last to start today (112th), so race will be interesting till the end. Greis could really be worth a shot - he didn't look like illness influenced his form in mixed.

 

[Cobalt]

Glagow and Ioureva and a couple others (of the experienced) had in between shots really long waiting times when wind was coming up...this might be a big factor in these condition: being patient for shooting

Yeah and individual is a rare event - just three per season! Additionally to the patience at the range, the concept for the 5 rounds has to be intelligent - it's like they say: the 4th shooting is as complicated as all three before! If you just overpower a bit on the first 4 rounds, you can mess up the last shooting so badly, that you don't have any chance at all in the final rankings - seen it a lot...

 

[chriscol]

going thru matchups:

i like Greis over Bjornd.good chance for better shooting,especially at 2.40os over Bergmann, os is a black box, but at least 0 error in relay,while Bergmann has gone 2+3+3 in 3 competitionslesinger over Sikora can be aclose call, but so far Slesinger is perfect in shootingHanevold over tscherezov i expect Hanevold to have a max of 2...can the russian match this?Hanevold over Ferry that s even better !!! Hanevold over Svendsson 1.83 BIG PLAY thats redicoulus...sevendsson going 3+4 so far. i would play it at 1.6

 

[Cobalt]

Hanevold over Svendsson 1.83 BIG PLAY thats redicoulus...sevendsson going 3+4 so far. i would play it at 1.6

Svendsen won individual in Pokljuka this season!

 

[chriscol]

but everybody besides Henkel was shooting true to form of this week, so why not the same with the men?

 

[TheBrainiac]

Hanevold much better so far than Svendsen and if I am right its Hanevolds last World C. so he will try his best as he did in the two previous races here . If I am gonna make a play in this head to head then it will be on Hanevold . Same with Fourcade vs Defrasne , Defrasne won the first 20 km in this season but Fourcade is better shooting at the moment in running they are about the same so lean on Fourcade but close to call too .

 

[Cobalt]

but everybody besides Henkel was shooting true to form of this week, so why not the same with the men?

Just a reminder, in case you forgot about Pokljuka That should be the reason why oddsmakers give him a respectable chance vs Hanevold.


Lol, how about fading Burke once more!? This time vs Sumann? - No way!!

 

[Cobalt]

gamebookers got Sikora over Ferry at 2,20! That sounds really good to me!
Fading the hometeam has been pretty successful so far.

 

[TheBrainiac]

14 February

Biathlon - Men: World Championships 20km Individual - Matchups


Tomasz Sikora vs Michal Slesingr

My pick is Michal Slesingr to finish ahead of Tomasz Sikora

2.08 units to win 2 units -104 at pinnaclesports
+
5 units to win 3.5 units at gamebookers


Will back the more stable one out of the two here in Sweden . Slesingr with 30/30 in two events so far . 5th place in pursuit with only 10 seconds behind the bronze medal . Sikora 27/30 in sprint + pursuit , he might have a slight advantage over Michal in running but its not so obvious here . With 1 error more Sikora shouldnt finish ahead of Slesingr and with same amount of errors it is close to call but I will try with such odds especially with a guy who is 30/30 so far .
Backed Gwizdon from Poland today and lost so I will fade a polish guy now :tongue2:

 

[TheBrainiac]

Late play here .

Michael Greis vs Maxim Tchoudov

My pick is Michael Greis to finish ahead of Maxim Tchoudov

10 units to win 6.5 units at gamebookers


Tchoudov wont make up a lot in running against Greis in my opinion but with wind like here I see Maxim with lot of problems .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Mean start for Maxim with 3 errors and Greis 0 , already about 3 minutes ahead

 

[TheBrainiac]

Ouch Greis 2 errors standing ! Tchoudov none ! ohhhhh

 

[TheBrainiac]

16 February

Biathlon - Men: World Championships 4x7,5km Relay - Matchups

Head to head

Germany vs Norway

My pick is Norway to finish ahead of Germany

10 units to win 4.4 units at betfair

 

[TheBrainiac]

Easy win .

You guys going to bet on women race ?

:cripwalk:

 

[TheBrainiac]

Ok , I will get it on , here is the money for you :tongue2:

Biathlon - Women: World Championships 12,5km Mass Start

Head to head

Solveig Rogstad vs Sandrine Bailly

My pick is Sandrine Bailly to finish ahead of Solveig Rogstad

10 units to win 5 units at gamebookers


Bailly can make up around 3 errors if needed in running based on the previous results here . There are pretty good conditions today and I dont see Bailly making many errors in the last race besides a relay . Rogstad would have to finish with like 20/20 to have a chance finishing ahead of Bailly .

 

[chriscol]

yes i will:

currently i am looking at

Henkel over Neuner
Bailley over WIlhelm (the usual Wilhelm fade)
Gwizdon over Makkarainen @ 2.15 really like that one
Sleptsova over Wilhelm
Berger over Akhatova

in general frpm the relay...shooting seems to be really difficult today. if the men cant do it in these conditions it might go all over the place with the girls