Brainiac’s Winter Sports

[chriscol]

looking deeper into it:

Ioureva over Neuner @1.80
Ioureva for sure better shooting, but amazingly they have very similar running times too: in sprint Iureva was 2 errors and 30 sec better (ca. 15 sec/error) and in persuit (without the sprint hdc) Ioureva was 4 errors and 54 sec better (almost 15/error again)

Khvostenko over Moisseva @1.86
not much comparison, but in individual Khvostenko was 26 sec ahead with same errors...so we can expect a 1-2 shot advantage here


Bailley over WIlhelm @1.89

Wilhelm is about 1-2 errors faster in the track. expecting Bailley to have 1-2 errors (if good) then it s a close call even with WIlhelm s shooting woes

 

[chriscol]

Gwizdon over Makkarainen @ 2.15 !! 2 units!!

better shooting and slight advantage in running too

Berger over Akhatova @1.75

again here a 2-shot advantage

 

[TheBrainiac]

Like your picks , Ioureva sure my fav to win it all today .

I will try this pick .

Head to head

Oksana Khvostenko vs Michaela Ponza

My pick is Oksana Khvostenko to finish ahead of Michaela Ponza

10 units to win 7 units at gamebookers


Will fade Ponza here after she has been terrible in every race so far . Khvostenko can probably make up 1 or 2 penalty loops in running against Ponza too but I can see her with less errors than Michaela .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Going to Werder Bremen game . Good luck guys , hope we cash it all !

 

[chriscol]

enjoy..hopefully a 3-1 win

will go to the HSV game tomorrow..great weather to go to football games here

 

[chriscol]

i am not around for the 2 race , but i like

Norway over Ukraine @1.90

and Hanevold over Kruglov @ 1.65 and Fourcade over Ferry @2.05

BOL what ever you do

 

[TheBrainiac]

17 February

Biathlon - Men: World Championships 15km Mass Start - Matchups

Head to head

Simon Fourcade vs Vincent Defrasne

My pick is Simon Fourcade to finish ahead of Vincent Defrasne

10 units to win 6 units at gamebookers


Head to head

Dmitri Iarochenko vs Bjoern Ferry

My pick is Dmitri Iarochenko to finish ahead of Bjoern Ferry

+

Michael Greis vs Ole Einar Bjoerndalen

My pick is Ole Einar Bjoerndalen to finish ahead of Michael Greis


Odds : 1.82

10 units to win 8.2 units at gamebookers

 

[TheBrainiac]

Here is the last race of this World Championships and my largest bet in winter sports ever .

Biathlon - Women: World Championships 4x6km Relay

Start time : 14.30 CET

Live on Eurosport

OUTRIGHT

My pick is GERMANY to win

50 units to win 27.50 units at betfair



GERMANY
GLAGOW Martina
HENKEL Andrea
NEUNER Magdalena
WILHELM Kati

RUSSIA
SLEPTSOVA Svetlana
AKHATOVA Albina
MOISEEVA Tatiana
IOURIEVA Ekaterina

FRANCE
PERETTO Delphine
BRUNET Marie Laure
BECAERT Sylvie
BAILLY Sandrine

NORWAY
ROGSTAD Solveig
INGSTADBJOERG Anne
FLATLAND Ann Kristin
BERGER Tora

UKRAINE
YAKOVLEVA Oksana
SEMERENKO Vita
SEMERENKO Valj
KHVOSTENKO Oksana

BELARUS
KALINCHIK Liudmila
DOMRACHEVA Darya
NAZAROVA Olga
KUDRASHOVA Olga

SWEDEN
JONSSON Helena
NILSSON Anna Maria
DOMEIJ Sofia
HÖGBERG Elisabeth

POLAND
PALKA Krystyna
BOBAK Paulina
GWIZDON Magdalena
GRZYBEK Agnieszka

ITALY
PONZA Michela
FIANDINO Roberta
HALLER Katja
ERTL Barbara

CHINA
DONG Xue
WANG Chunli
KONG Yingchao
LIU Xianying

ROMANIA
PLOTOGEA Dana
TOFALVI Eva
PURDEA Mihaela
RUSU Alexandra

SLOVENIA
GREGORIN Teja
MALI Andreja
GRUDICEK-RAVNIKAR Dijana
DRCAR Lili

SLOVAKIA
GEREKOVA Jana
HALINAROVA Martina
SLEZAKOVA Petra
SVIKRUHOVA Eliska

KAZAKSTAN
LEBEDEVA Anna
AFANASJEVA Viktoria
MOZHEVITINA Irina
KHRUSTALEVA Elena

LATVIA
KRUMINA Gerda
LIDUMA Madara
JUSKANE Zanna
GLAZERE Liga

ESTONIA
LEHTLA Kadri
SAUE Eveli
HANNI Sirli
MINTSENKOVA Jana

CZECH REPUBLIC
VITKOVA Veronika
REZLEROVA Magda
VEJNAROVA Zdenka
TRYZNOVA Zuzana

FINLAND
MÄKÄRÄINEN Kaisa
LAUKKANEN Mari
KUNTOLA Teija
PORELA Susanna

BULGARIA
FILIPOVA Pavlina
YORDANOVA Emilia
HADZHIEVA Asenka
GEORGIEVA Silvia

USA
BARNES Tracy
BARNES Lanny
JOHNSON Haley
COMPTON Caitlin

CANADA
KOCHER Zina
KEITH Sandra
IMRIE Megan
TANDY Megan




The race will be decided between Germany and Russia . There have been 4 relays so far this season and Germany has won all of them even without their best starters and today they have the best they got .


GERMANY
GLAGOW Martina
HENKEL Andrea
NEUNER Magdalena
WILHELM Kati

RUSSIA
SLEPTSOVA Svetlana
AKHATOVA Albina
MOISEEVA Tatiana
IOURIEVA Ekaterina



Glagow vs Sleptsova

Yesterday in mass start Glagow was 50 seconds ahead of Sleptsova even with 1 error more . I see Glagow with slight advantage here .

Henkel vs Akhatova

Henkel better in running than Akhatova and both finished with 30/30 in sprint and pursuit ! Both struggled yesterday especially Andrea Henkel who had 8 errors !!! Akhatova had 4 errors which was unsual for her as well but we got to keep in mind that there were pretty bad conditions for shooting with wind . I still think Henkel will be ahead here .

Neuner vs Moiseeva

Now thats a huge mismatch here . Neuner over 2 minutes faster than Moiseeva yesterday plus one error more . Neuner can make up around 1 minute against Moiseeva in just running and if Magdalena shoots like she did yesterday I could see Germany with over 40 seconds ahead of Russia before the last exchange .

Wilhelm vs Iourieva

Advantage for Iourieva because Wilhelm is in bad form here . Yesterday she finished 8th with 4 errors but it was her best results in Ostersund .
Today she will give all she got to avoid total disaster and get a gold medal with her team . Wilhelm was always very solid in relays .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Finally had time to find all the results from this World Championships and to update my stats .

World Championships : 14-9 + 27.38 units

YTD : 53-25 + 150.28 units

 

[Cobalt]

Finally had time to find all the results from this World Championships and to update my stats .

World Championships : 14-9 + 27.38 units

YTD : 53-25 + 150.28 units

Uff, finally back online. Hi, Brainiac.
Overall the World Championships were not as good as expected - fortunately german girls pulled it out after all (and fortunately Akhatova's rifle was fucked up!). congrats to +150 ... new alltime high if I'm not mistaken. Let's finish this season strong in the remaining WC races

 

[TheBrainiac]

YTD : 53-25 + 150.28 units

1 March

Biathlon - Women: World Cup 10km Pursuit Pyeong Chang - Matchups

Teja Gregorin vs Sabrina Buchholz

My pick is Sabrina Buchholz to finish ahead of Teja Gregorin

Odds : 2.08

2 units to win 2.16 units at pinnaclesports


Very surprised by such odds here . Both had no error in sprint and will start at the same time tomorrow . Gregorin without any good results this season and Buchholz is no word beater however she is very solid shooting and is almost always to be found in top 20 which I cant say about Teja Gregorin who can make bunch of errors . I see Buchholz with much better shooting performance tomorrow than Gregorin who cant make up anything against Sabrina with running . Very nice odds , I will take it .

 

[Cobalt]

Good morning.
Buchholz was slightly ill last couple of days - it was a bit surprising (even to herself it seems) that she did so good on the track. I guess that's the reason for the odds (back to 1,92 at pinny but still 2,15 at ub).
Pyeong Chang tracks are really hard, big advantage for strong runners - like we could see in last three days: Neuner, Bailly, Svendsen, Greis. The five laps today will sort out the weak runners for sure, esp on the last round. Good shooters will have lots of trouble at last standing shooting because of exhaustion I think.

 

[TheBrainiac]

TOP 3

My pick is Sandrine Bailly to place in TOP 3

Odds : 1.60

10 units to win 6 units at betandwin + gamebookers

 

[TheBrainiac]

Buchholz didnt start , you were right she was ill

Bet is Cancelled .


Bailly won it all arty:



Today : 1-0+ 6 units

YTD : 54-25 + 156.28 units

 

[TheBrainiac]

YTD : 54-25 + 156.28 units

6 March

Biathlon - Men: World Cup 10km Sprint Khanty Mansiysk - Matchups

Michael Greis vs Emil Hegle Svendsen

My pick is Emil Hegle Svendsen to finish ahead of Michael Greis

2.7 units to win 2 units - 135 at pinnaclesports

 

[TheBrainiac]

Biathlon - Women: World Cup 7,5km Sprint Khanty Mansiysk - Matchups

Start time : in 40 minutes

Helena Jonsson vs Kaisa Makarainen

My pick Kaisa Makarainen to finish ahead of Helena Jonsson

Odds : - 115

Bookmaker : pinnaclesports

2.3 units to win 2 units

 

[TheBrainiac]

YTD : 55-26 + 155.98 units

8 March

Biathlon - Men: World Cup 12,5km Pursuit Khanty Mansiysk

Start time : 02:30 AM - PST

Michal Slesingr vs Tomasz Sikora

My pick is Tomasz Sikora to finish ahead of Michal Slesingr

10 units to win 9 units at pinnaclesports + gamebookers



Sikora is starting 2 seconds behind of Slesingr but he also had one error more which cost him + 25 seconds .
Sikora is better in running especially in longer races . If they make same amount of errors tomorrow Sikora is sure to finish ahead of Slesingr , with one error more he should still be in front of Slesingr too .

 

[TheBrainiac]

8 March

Biathlon - Women: World Cup 10km Pursuit Khanty Mansiysk

Start time : 4:30 AM - PST

Sabrina Buchholz vs Magdalena Gwizdon

My pick is Magdalena Gwizdon to win ahead of Sabrina Buchholz

10 units to win 8.5 units at pinnaclesports + gamebookers


Both will start at the same time however Gwizdon had 1 error more which means she was 25 seconds faster in running .
Magdalena Gwizdon much stronger in running than Buchholz in long distance races plus she is shooting at the same level as Buchholz . With same amount of errors Gwizdon will finish ahead of her but even with up to 2 errors more and she still might be found in front of Buchholz who was ill last week and still might not be at her best .

 

[Cobalt]

Holding up the polish flag once again, huh? lol. Well, some things I stumbled upon regarding your picks: The team from Czechia did not travel to Korea, but they did take part at the European Championships in Nove Mesto (which was scheduled right between the WC in Östersund and the Cup in Pyeong Chang), where Slesingr was very successful by claiming a silver and two bronze medals (IN:2, SP:3, PU:4, RL:3). Sikora was in Nove Mesto as well, starting only in individual and he gained the gold medal there, but after that he travelled to Pyeong Chang to compete in SP, PU and RL. So the polish runner had a lot of far distance travelling to go through after Östersund and less rest before Khanty. Probably he's one of the guys who doesn't care about jetlag, but I'd still be cautious with that one.
For Gwizdon goes the same like Sikora: starting in individual at EC: finished 20th; after that flying to Korea to run all competitions. Unlike Sikora, she seems to be on a decline though. But as you said, Buchholz was ill and is still handicapped...

I'm thinking about backing Pinter vs Wolf: the German was ill last week and he almost did not start the sprint. His running time was very bad compared to his normal performances. Pinter is starting 2 sec behind, but he had 2 errors while Wolf had zero. I'd assume that Wolf will not keep clean sheets in pursuit and every penalty loop will be doubled hard for a physis weakened by
health problems.

 

[Cobalt]

I like Bailly over Neuner at those odds. Neuner seems to get her shooting stuff together at standing position, but pursuit is another thing than sprint. To perform the shooting "shoulder to shoulder" is a harder task mentally speaking, and we all know what can happen to Neuner when she starts thinking at the shooting range....Bailly in superb form and extremely motivated after the very disappointing WC. I'd say this is hardly a 50-50 kinda matchup for Neuner; Bailly definitely has the edge in shooting and with 20 shots instead of 10 in sprint, there is a very decent chance that the French (who is leading in this discipline btw) can finish ahead of the german running-wonder.
Opinions, Brain, Chris ...?