Don't worry about it. I'm playing all of them. People try to tweak too many things to try to make a perfect system. I backtracked them an the totals with double digit favorites still turned a profit. They just brought the overall percentage down. Id rather go 34-17 then 30-14. 30-14 is 68.18%. 34-17 is 66.67%. If u played all games for $100 you would win $1530 off 34-17 while you would make 1460 off 30-14. I'd rather make more money than have the higher percentage.
from post #1--(hope this makes it clearer)
Bet the OVER.... ANY total that is 144.5 or less. (ie.144, 143, 142, ......136, 135, 134......120....110....etc)
Some filter out games with a double digit favorite since they are more likely to be a blowout & won't have fouling at the end to help push the total over.
Record from last 3 years for the overs.
22-9 in 2011
32-16 in 2010
30-10 in 2009
Yeah I expected that. Totals always go up from the opening line. I just posted the opening lines so people could get a feel for which totals would be plays. Majority of sites never release those opening lines. Only a couple of sportsbooks take action on those openers. This is common. It's not cause of this bracket bustee system.
Put in some plays for Saturday, but only where I could get totals either close to openers, OR where my many outs had at least 1 point difference on the over-unders.
I'm guessing that due to crazy line movement we all will have different results, but hopefully all with a profit.
I play Saturday only. Like last year, my plays will vary in size. For OVERS, I'll use double sized plays with line value and/or for the TV bracketbuster games (better teams?). The rest of the totals will be single plays or 1.5* plays, EXCEPT I am going to use single plays or slightly below for totals under 125, which was a system change recently.
I will NOT play unlined games this year. I will play road dogs 1-3.5, and may play some double digit dogs, backing off if early results are unkind.
Whatever you do, good luck to all. My head was spinning last year getting all these plays in, and figures to be the same this year.
I'm guessing that due to crazy line movement we all will have different results, but hopefully all with a profit.
I play Saturday only. Like last year, my plays will vary in size. For OVERS, I'll use double sized plays with line value and/or for the TV bracketbuster games (better teams?). The rest of the totals will be single plays or 1.5* plays, EXCEPT I am going to use single plays or slightly below for totals under 125, which was a system change recently.
I will NOT play unlined games this year. I will play road dogs 1-3.5, and may play some double digit dogs, backing off if early results are unkind.
Whatever you do, good luck to all. My head was spinning last year getting all these plays in, and figures to be the same this year.
Yeah, I noticed that on a lot of my totals.. I kinda like it, because I see it as they are offering +money on the under right now to entice bettors overnight and keep people from hitting the overs early, but the lines will all raise 0.5-1.5 points in the morning when they even out the vig. Another way to look at it is that they are showing confidence in the under and vigging the over at a lower total expecting volume so when people play those lines they will end up paying a lot of vig when they lose if the extra point or two doesn't come in to play.
Either way, I don't think it's that big of a deal, the lines will all adjust by morning and there will be even vig on most of the totals.
Also, does anyone know where I can find Pinny's closing lines without being around at tip off? I know where I can muster some closing lines from crappier sites, but I would prefer an easy way to get Pinny's tomorrow night because I want to track the value I gained by putting most of the bets in over night. (I have 34 in right now, most of which have already moved in my favor, and I'm looking at 17 more until tip off.) Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.
