I do remember that my trouble was the games that were close to qualifying and waiting till the last minute to lock them in. Also it was the first time I ever made that many wagers and wasn't prepared to track so many games. It is pretty much a full time job sat just keeping up with the thing.
Great useful and informative thread here guys. Before I discovered this thread, I was doing research on other angles and began to notice that home teams didn't seem to do very well in bracketbuster games. A few days ago I went through the last 5 years of bracketbuster games, quantifying the performance of home teams. I don't have the year by year totals, just the cumulative record. If you played the away dog whenever they were +1 thru +9', you had 89 winners and 66 losers, a record of 57%. Away dogs of 10+ were 14-14. And on the rare occasions where the away team was favored, you would have gone 18-9 ats playing the visitor. Thus playing away dogs from +1 thru +9' and all away favorites, you would have a 5-year record of 107-75, a winning % of 58.7. Combined with the over total numbers, we have some powerful weapons for bracketbuster weekend. Let's get em!
ok so im messing with some numbers here. lets say that we hit at a 55% clip this saturday on the overs (which is lower than the clip we've hit at the past few years)
Instead of betting every game straight, I propose to all of you that you bet every game in a three team parlay.
What I will probably do is break every game into 5 separate pools and run round robins. I've done the math on these, and unless im wrong, the numbers are pretty damn sexy.
Again, assuming we hit at a 55% clip, we will go 5-0 5.03% of the time, 4-1 20.05% of the time, 3-2 33.7% of the time, and either 2-3,1-4, or 0-5 40.74% of the time (total is 99.52, so there's some negligible rounding errors)
There are ten 3 team parlays in a 5 team round robin.
If we win all 5, we win $60 in parlays for every dollar we bet per parlay ($1 * 6-1 odds equals $6 per win, times 10 parlays equals $60 profit). We win 5.03% of the time, which results in a $3.02 profit.
We go 4-1 20.05% of the time, with a $3.61 profit. 3-2, we lose $1.01. 2-3 we lose everything (-$10), the same with 1-4, 0-5. This happens 40.74% of the time for a loss of $4.07.
Overall, we win $1.55.
Let's say instead of investing $10 in the ten parlays, and instead we put $2 to win $1.90 (-105) on each team individually. Hitting at the same 55% win rate, we'd win (.55*1.90-.45*2)*5 games. We'd win $.73. That's a difference of $.82. You're doubling your profit!! Imagine if we hit at 60% instead of 55%.
Some of you are going to say that parlays are the devil, or that I'm paying juice twice. I really don't care, there isn't time between games to bet each game individually and then reinvest what I win in another one.
I don't know about you, but I'm going to take the extra profits we're being handed because of this system.
Instead of betting every game straight, I propose to all of you that you bet every game in a three team parlay.
What I will probably do is break every game into 5 separate pools and run round robins. I've done the math on these, and unless im wrong, the numbers are pretty damn sexy.
Again, assuming we hit at a 55% clip, we will go 5-0 5.03% of the time, 4-1 20.05% of the time, 3-2 33.7% of the time, and either 2-3,1-4, or 0-5 40.74% of the time (total is 99.52, so there's some negligible rounding errors)
There are ten 3 team parlays in a 5 team round robin.
If we win all 5, we win $60 in parlays for every dollar we bet per parlay ($1 * 6-1 odds equals $6 per win, times 10 parlays equals $60 profit). We win 5.03% of the time, which results in a $3.02 profit.
We go 4-1 20.05% of the time, with a $3.61 profit. 3-2, we lose $1.01. 2-3 we lose everything (-$10), the same with 1-4, 0-5. This happens 40.74% of the time for a loss of $4.07.
Overall, we win $1.55.
Let's say instead of investing $10 in the ten parlays, and instead we put $2 to win $1.90 (-105) on each team individually. Hitting at the same 55% win rate, we'd win (.55*1.90-.45*2)*5 games. We'd win $.73. That's a difference of $.82. You're doubling your profit!! Imagine if we hit at 60% instead of 55%.
Some of you are going to say that parlays are the devil, or that I'm paying juice twice. I really don't care, there isn't time between games to bet each game individually and then reinvest what I win in another one.
I don't know about you, but I'm going to take the extra profits we're being handed because of this system.
Found my 2011 Bracketbuster spreadsheet. The rules I followed, from page 1 of JBragg's thread last year, were:
My results were:
OVERS: 34-17, +15.3 units
DD Dogs: 0-2, -2.2 units
Dogs 1 to 3.5: 10-10, -1 units
Unusual: 5-8, -3.8 units
I'm just going to play the OVERS this year. GL everyone!
My results were:
OVERS: 34-17, +15.3 units
DD Dogs: 0-2, -2.2 units
Dogs 1 to 3.5: 10-10, -1 units
Unusual: 5-8, -3.8 units
I'm just going to play the OVERS this year. GL everyone!
Big risk here, as it's not as simple as it sounds. Let me try to explain. You are right, there are 10 combos in each 5-team parlay. A 55% win rate means you would win 11 games and lose 9. That means you would need to have 4 separate 5-team parlays to reach 20 total games, which is easy using this system. Let's say you go 3-2, 3-2, 3-2 and 2-3. If that is the case, your 1st 5 team parlay pack would yield 1 win and 9 (3 team parlay) losers. You would lose 3 units in this pack. Unfortunately, you would lose 3 units in packs 2 and 3, and all 10 units in the pack where the 5 games went 2-3. In this example, we end up with the following:
Parlay: 40 units wagered. 3 wins at 6-1, and 37 losses at a unit each. -19 units.
Straight: 44 units wagered (if 2 units per game at -110). 11 wins for +22. 9 losses for -19.8. +2.2 units.
Example #2: The different packs go 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, 2-3. In THIS example you win 18 units in the 4-1, lose 3 units going 3-2, and lose 20 units in the other packs. You still come out -5 units.
Bottom line: You need 1 of the packs to go 5-0 and THEN this works. OR, you need 2 of the packs to go 4-1 and THEN this works. Since it is only about a 1/20 shot to get to 5-0 in a pack, that may require some luck. You just have to be fortunate in putting hot games with each other, and cold games with each other.
Parlay: 40 units wagered. 3 wins at 6-1, and 37 losses at a unit each. -19 units.
Straight: 44 units wagered (if 2 units per game at -110). 11 wins for +22. 9 losses for -19.8. +2.2 units.
Example #2: The different packs go 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, 2-3. In THIS example you win 18 units in the 4-1, lose 3 units going 3-2, and lose 20 units in the other packs. You still come out -5 units.
Bottom line: You need 1 of the packs to go 5-0 and THEN this works. OR, you need 2 of the packs to go 4-1 and THEN this works. Since it is only about a 1/20 shot to get to 5-0 in a pack, that may require some luck. You just have to be fortunate in putting hot games with each other, and cold games with each other.
