Bracketbuster System

[wiseguy007]

HERE ARE THE RULES SOMEONE POSTED ACROSS THE STREET:

Bracketbuster weekend is here and here is the original system. I didn't come up with it, I am just putting it out there as a reminder. I think category #1 is the best play. The other categories have run their course b/c ESPN has way too many teams playing bracketbuster games. Might be even time to start fading them based on the last few years results.

1) ALL TOTALS 144.5 or less are played OVER ... The exception is if it is a line of 10+ do not play!!!
Play all totals of 144.5 or less to go over unless the game line is 10 or more

2) PLAY ON ALL DOGS OF 10 OR MORE

3) PLAY ON ALL DOGS OF 1-3.5

4) PLAY ON ALL TEAMS THAT NORMALLY DON'T HAVE LINED GAMES ( IE. Holy Cross, Central Connecticut St., etc)

Here are games that fall into bracketbuster Eligibility. will they be plays? Time will tell.

Friday 2/17
7pm - No. Iowa @ VCU
9pm - Valparaiso @ Loyola Marymount

Sat 2/18
11AM -
Drexel @ Cleveland st

12PM -
Wichita st @ Davidson
Tenn Tech @ Coastal Carolina

1PM -
Liberty @ Morgan st
William & Mary @ VMI
Buffalo @ South Dakota st

2pm -
No. Dakota @ Longwood
MD Baltimore Cty @ Canisius
Hartford @ St Peters
No. Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville
Indiana st @ Butler
UNC Wilmington @ Manhattan
Akron @ Oral Roberts
Marist @ Maine
So. Illinois @ Ball st
Hampton @ Delaware
James madison @ Detroit
Winthrop @ Appalacian st
E. Michigan @ Wisc Green Bay
Morehead st @ Bowling Green
Niagara @ Vermont

3pm
Drake @ New Mexico st
Toledo @ Sam Houston St
Towson @ New Hampshire

3:30pm
Campbell @ Northwestern st

4pm
Fairfield @ Wisc Milwaukee
SE Missouri st @ McNeese st
Siena @ Hofstra
Nevada @ Iona
Lamar @ George Mason
Binghamton @ Radford

4:30pm
Indiana-Purdue @ Nicholls st
C. Arkansas @ La Tech

5pm
Old Dominion @ Missouri st
Oakland @ Illinois st
Wright st @ UM-Kansas City

6pm
La-Monroe @ Denver
Charleston @ Kent st
St Mary's @ Murray st

7pm
Tenn-Martin @ SE Louisiana
UNC-Ashville @ Ohio
High point @ SF Austin
Ill-Chicago @ E. Illinois
Tex A&M CC @ C. Michigan
Delaware st @ Gardner Webb
IPFW @ E. Kentucky
Rider @ Albany
Wofford @ Chaleston Southern
UT San Antonio @ Georgia st

8pm
Texas st @ So. Dakota
W. Michigan @ N.Dakota st
Loyola Chicago @ Bradley
Idaho st @ Pacific
Presbyterian @ Jacksonville st
Texas Arlington @ Weber st
W. Illinois @ Evansville

8:30pm
Youngstown st @ Austin Peay
UC Davis @ N. Arizona

9pm
Hawaii @ Montana
UC Santa Barbara @ Utah st
Montana st @ Cal St Fullerton
Cal Poly Slo @ N. Colorado

10 pm
Fresno st @ Cal St Northridge
S. Utah @ UC Riverside
E. Washington @ UC Irvine
Long Beach St @ Creighton
San Diego @ Cal st Bakersfield
Portland st @ Idaho
San Jose st @ Sacramento st.

SUNDAY 2/19
12 Noon
Boston Univ @ Loyola Maryland

3pm
Tennessee st @ Miami ohio

Here are the 2011 weekend results
[COLOR=#000000 !important]Friday
VCU/W.Michigan Over 140 (loss) 135 pts
Drexel/Kent st over 124 (win) 139 pts
San Jose st +1 (win) won by 16
Saturday
NORMALLY UNLINED TEAMS (ALL THESE ARE PLAYS) - 5-10
2PM rot # 630 Boston UNIV-4 - (win) won by 8
2PM rot # 636 Stony Brook-7(loss) won by 1
2PM rot # 658 UNC Asheville-4(loss) lost by 1
3PM rot # 640 Liberty+5.5(loss) lost by 20
4PM rot # 651 Delaware St+8.5(loss) lost by 15
4PM rot # 649 Delaware +8.5 (loss) lost by 9
4PM rot # 655 Seattle+8.5 (win) won by 12
5PM rot # 663 Vermont+8.5 (loss) lost by 15
6PM rot # 686 High Point+2.5(win) lost by 1
6PM rot # 687 Radford+12.5(loss) lost by 32
7PM rot # 677 Charleston Southern+5(win) won by 5
7PM rot # 681 Maine+5.5(loss) lost by 11
7:30 rot # 694 Presbyterian+5(loss) lost by 6
7:30 rot # 695 New Hampshire-2.5(loss) lost by 9
8:30 rot # 703 Gardner Webb+8(win) lost by 2

DD Dogs(+10 or more) - 0-1
10pm Rot # 715 - UC Riverside +10(loss) lost by 19

Dogs between 1 and 3.5 points - 8-11
1pm Rot # 627 Morehead st +3 - (win) won by 6
2pm Rot # 637 C. Michigan +1.5(loss) lost by 6
3pm Rot # 648 Tenn Martin +3.5 (loss) lost by 6
3pm Rot # 641 Wisc-Green Bay +2 (win) lost by 1
4pm Rot # 645 Georgia st +3.5(loss) lost by 6
5pm Rot # 661 Missouri st +2(loss) lost by 13
5pm Rot # 667 Hawaii +3.5 (win) lost by 14
6pm Rot # 669 Cal st Fullerton +2(loss) lost by 5
7pm Rot # 673 Creighton +2(loss) lost by 9
7pm Rot # 679 Ohio +1(win) lost by 3
7pm Rot # 684 Towson +3.5(loss) lost by 18
7pm Rot # 720 Portland St +2(win) lost by 9
7pm Rot # 623 Bowling Green +3.5(loss) lost by 7
8pm Rot # 699 Pacific +2.5(loss) lost by 16
8pm Rot # 587 W. Kentucky +1(loss) lost by 3
8pm Rot # 701 Detroit +1.5(loss) lost by 8
10pm Rot # 717 N. Arizona +3 (win) by 3
10 pm Rot # 723 Boise st +3 (win) by 2
10pm Rot # 721 Cal-Northridge +3(win) by 9

Totals under 144.5(we will play the over) 32-16-1

11AM -
619 Hofstra/Wright st o-135 - (win) 138 pts

12pm
621 Miami-oh/James Madison o-138 - (win) 139 pts

1pm
625 Austin Peay/Fairfield o-131 - (win) 145 pts
627 Morehead/Indiana st o-127 - (win) 136 pts


2pm
629 Canisius/Boston Univ o-131 (win) 132 pts
631 E.Kentucky/W. Carolina o-131 (win) 155 pts
633 Illinois st/W.Michigan o-131 (win) 133 pts
635 Manhattan/Stony Brook o-119 (win) 127 pts
637 C.Mich/Niagara o-126 (loss) 116pts

3pm
643 St Peter's/Loy-chicago o-125.5 (win) 138 pts
647 Bradley/Tenn Martin o-139.5 (win) 156 pts
641 Wisc-Green Bay/S. Illinois o-131 (loss) 121 pts

4pm
649 Delaware/Rider o-134.5 (win) 181 pts
651 Delaware st/Tenn st o-135 (win) 141 pts

4:30pm
659 Jacksonville st/E.Michigan o-123(push) 123pts

5pm
661 Missouri st/Valpo o-136.5 - (win) 147 pts
663 Vermont/Charleston o-142 (win) 155 pts
667 Hawaii/UC-Davis - o-136.5 (win) 152 pts

6pm
669 Cal st Fullerton/Idaho st o-140.5(win) 163 pts

7pm
719 Loy-Marymount/Portland st o-144(win) 159 pts
615 Citadel/Ga Southern o-136 -(loss) 118 pts
671 Geo mason/N.iowa o-129 (win) 148 pts
673 Creighton/Akron o-134(win) 143 pts
675 Wisc -Milwaukee/Buffalo -141(win) 145 pts
677 Charleston South/UNC Wilmington o-135(loss) 121 pts
679 Ohio/Winthrop o-134(win) 151 pts
681 Maine/Siena o-140 (loss) 131 pts
683 Loyola-MD/Towson o-143(loss) 132 pts
685 Appalacian st/High point o-139.5(win) 163 pts
687 Radford/William & Mary o-134(win) 136 pts
689 E.Illinois/Toledo o-123.5(win) 133 pts
691 Ball st/Wofford o-137.5 (loss) 121 pts
623 Youngstown St/Bowling green o-137(win) 159 pts

7:30pm
693 Davidson/Presbyterian o-132 (win) 136 pts
695 New Hampshire/Marist o-124(loss) 107 pts

8pm
697 Evansville/Murray st o-129.5(loss) 119 pts
699 Pacific/oral Roberts o-137.5 -(win) 142 pts
747 S.Utah/W. Illinois o-124(win) 131 pts
701 Detroit/Drake o-141(win) 160 pts

8:30pm
703 Gardner Webb/Tenn Tech o-139(loss) 118 pts
705 Sacramento st/Se Missouri st o-139.5(loss) 119 pts
709 N.Colorado/New Mexico st o-139(win) 162 pts
9pm
707 Utah st/St Mary's o-137 (win) 162 pts
711 Idaho/Montana st o-133(loss) 115 pts

10pm
715 Cal Riverside/Fresno st o-130(loss) 117 pts
717 N.Arizona/Cal Poly SLO o-121(loss) 115 pts
723 Boise st/Cal Santa Barbara o-139(win) 154 pts
721 Cal st Northridge/E.Washington o-141(loss) 127 pts

11pm
725 Montana/Long Beach st o-135 (loss) 130 pts
Sunday
877 Cleveland st/Old dominon over 125.5(1pm)[/color]

 

[wiseguy007]

The lines will jump fast if you wait as many bet these totals. Rule of thumb is if the opening # is 140 or below bet it as soon as it comes out to avoid losing value. If the total opens at 141 or higher wait to see if the total goes above the 144.5 range as it would then be out of range to play.

friday plays
rotation #
831 Northern Iowa @ VCU over 123.5
833 Valparaiso @ Loyola Marymount over 137

 

[thenatti]

thanks wiseguy!

 

[Hoosierdaddy+]

Did only the overs last year and it was money..Im considering taking favs between 1-3.5 rather than the dogs, last 2 years that part of the system has been a loser. Oh and of course all home dogs between 8-9.5.

 

[wiseguy007]

The lines will jump fast if you wait as many bet these totals. Rule of thumb is if the opening # is 140 or below bet it as soon as it comes out to avoid losing value. If the total opens at 141 or higher wait to see if the total goes above the 144.5 range as it would then be out of range to play.

friday plays
rotation #
831 Northern Iowa @ VCU over 123.5
833 Valparaiso @ Loyola Marymount over 137

Better get on these now line is moving up

 

[thess12345]

Big risk here, as it's not as simple as it sounds. Let me try to explain. You are right, there are 10 combos in each 5-team parlay. A 55% win rate means you would win 11 games and lose 9. That means you would need to have 4 separate 5-team parlays to reach 20 total games, which is easy using this system. Let's say you go 3-2, 3-2, 3-2 and 2-3. If that is the case, your 1st 5 team parlay pack would yield 1 win and 9 (3 team parlay) losers. You would lose 3 units in this pack. Unfortunately, you would lose 3 units in packs 2 and 3, and all 10 units in the pack where the 5 games went 2-3. In this example, we end up with the following:

Parlay: 40 units wagered. 3 wins at 6-1, and 37 losses at a unit each. -19 units.
Straight: 44 units wagered (if 2 units per game at -110). 11 wins for +22. 9 losses for -19.8. +2.2 units.

Example #2: The different packs go 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, 2-3. In THIS example you win 18 units in the 4-1, lose 3 units going 3-2, and lose 20 units in the other packs. You still come out -5 units.

Bottom line: You need 1 of the packs to go 5-0 and THEN this works. OR, you need 2 of the packs to go 4-1 and THEN this works. Since it is only about a 1/20 shot to get to 5-0 in a pack, that may require some luck. You just have to be fortunate in putting hot games with each other, and cold games with each other.

Obviously increases variance a bit, but wins over the long haul. But with lets say 30 games, so 6 games of parlays, the chances of us not hitting one 5 teamer is roughly 73%. But lets say we hit at 65% (which is less than the 70% we've hit at the past few years). We have an 11% chance of hitting a 5 teamer. We are now a favorite to hit a 5 teamer (49.7%). If we hit at 70%, we are a 2-1 favorite to hit a 5 teamer, let along how more likely we are to win 4 teamers. It's +EV, but obviously +variance.

 

[BuckeyeNation+]

Looks to be around 40 plays with 8 of those on the bubble (9 or 9.5 point spreads or o143+) through saturday night.

 

[AUFAN]

Could someone post the saturday overs ? THANKS

 

[AUFAN]

hno:Nevermind found them

 

[DMONEY88]

Here's a list I put together. If the spread is 8 or more its listed, and if it has a * it's close to 144.5. If the total is 145 or more its not listed.

634 cleveland state over 117
642 morgan state over 137
644 northeastern over 118
646 south dakota state over 141.5 *
652 bowling green over 115
654 oral roberts over 140
656 vermont over 139 (vermont -8)
658 maine over 143 *
660 Appalachian State over 125 (Ap St -9)
662 ball state over 122
664 butler no line
666 canisius over 143 *
668 Detroit no line
670 Manhattan over 138 (manhattan -12)
672 SIU Edwardsville over 135
674 st peters over 117
676 green bay over 113
680 new hampshire over 112 (NH -10.5)
682 sam houston no line
684 radford over 123 (radford -9)
686 wisc milwaukee over 123
690 george mason over 143 * (GM -8)
692 hofstra over 123
694 SE Mizz st over 135
702 mizz st over 116
704 UMKC over 116
708 murray state no total
710 ohio no line
712 albany no line
714 Charleston Southern over 135
716 Central mich over 122 (CMU -12.5)
720 east kentucky over 134
722 georgia state over 123 (georgia state -11)
724 gardner webb over 127
726 SE Louisiana over 121
728 stephen austin over 119
730 jacksonville st over 120
732 bradley over 121
736 pacific no line
738 north dakota state over 137
742 evansville over 117 (evansville -9.5)
744 austin peay over 144 *
746 northern arizona over 133
748 Montana over 140 (montana -9)
750 northern colorado over 134
754 utah state over 131
756 cal river over 116
760 sacramento state over 139
762 idaho over 142 * (Idaho -9)
764 cs northridge over 133

 

[phantom888]

nice list....looks like no HOME dogs of +8 - 9.5 this year......

 

[mtm2649]

This is what I have so far. There are 7 totals that haven't been released yet. I put them on here but just left them blank for now. I will post them as soon as i get them and if they are over 144.5 i will delete them.


OVER ON TOTALS OF 144.5 OR LESS
11AM Cleveland St Over 117
1PM Morgan St Over 137
1PM Northeastern Over 118
1PM South Dakota St Over 141
2PM Delaware Over 135
2PM Bowling Green Over 115
2PM Oral Roberts Over 140
2PM Vermont Over 139
2PM Maine Over 143
2PM Appalachian St Over 125
2PM Ball St Over 122
2PM Butler Over
2PM Canisius Over 143
2PM Detroit Over
2PM Manhattan Over 138
2PM SIU Edwardsville Over 135
2PM St Peters Over 117
2PM Wisconsin Green Bay Over 113
3PM New Mexico St Over
3PM New Hampshire Over 112
3PM Sam Houston St Over
4PM Radford Over 123
4PM Wisconsin Milwaukee Over 123
4PM George Mason Over 143
4PM Hofstra Over 123
4PM McNeese St Over 135
5PM Missouri St Over 116
6PM Murray St Over
6PM College of Charleston Over 143
7PM Ohio Over
7PM Albany Over
7PM Charleston Southern Over 135
7PM Central Mich Over 122
7PM Eastern Kentucky Over 134
7PM Georgia St Over 123
7PM Gardner Webb Over 127
7PM SE Louisiana Over 121
7:15 Stephen F Austin Over 119
7:15 Eastern Illinois Over 126
8PM Jacksonville St Over 120
8PM Bradley Over 121
8PM Pacific Over
8PM North Dakota St Over 137
8PM Weber St Over 144.5
8PM Evansville Over 117
8:30 Austin Peay Over 144
9PM Northern Arizona Over 133
9PM Montana Over 140
9PM Northern Colorado Over 134
9PM Utah St Over 131
10PM Riverside Over 116
10PM Sacramento St Over 139
10PM Idaho Over 142
10PM Northridge Over 133

 

[mtm2649]

Canisius line just jumped to 145 so that would be out right now. Weird cause right after I posted the plays the College of Charleston line dropped from 145 to 143 so i edited the post.

 

[mtm2649]

Not sure VCU OVER is a play. Needs to be 125.5 or > I believe according to a revision a year or two ago.

I backtracked that revision and last couple years the totals that were under 125.5 hit over 60% too. Last year they were 4-2 or 3-2-1 depending on the lines u got. Also there was a play that closed at 125.5 that hit that some likely got at less than 125.5.

 

[mtm2649]

I'm also playing the totals with a double digit favorite. I think those totals went 12-7 last 3 years. There are 8 of them right now but a few of those lines are -10 so could go down.

 

[thenatti]

I'm also playing the totals with a double digit favorite. I think those totals went 12-7 last 3 years. There are 8 of them right now but a few of those lines are -10 so could go down.

Can you add those totals to your master list?

I appreciate you helping keep this clean!

 

[Donkwin47]

Nice job keeping everyone updated, MTM. Let's clean up this weekend!

For tonight I have the overs at 123.5 and 137.. They are now 127 and 139!

 

[moocow]

VCU over 1h easy winner...anyone know how 1hs went compared to full games? It would be difficult to play so many full games

 

[candylicker]

just looking for little advise... will you guys play them all tonight..or just the ones under 140... anything over 140 you wait till game time....TIA

 

[Bluegrasser]

just looking for little advise... will you guys play them all tonight..or just the ones under 140... anything over 140 you wait till game time....TIA

As long as all lines are less than 10 (maybe 8 to be safe) I will be on the ones under 140 and wait on the 140-144.5