Boxslayer's CFB Week #4 Plays

[AlwaysKeen]

boxslayer,

it's obvious to me you are highly intellegent, I like your confidence and your conviction with your plays...

don't blame you for the Va. Tech play, agree with you that Nebraska will turn out to be a very good team...just have a tough time backing a team like Va. Tech who is giving up over 200 yards a game rushing...that, to me, will be the key to this game...at any rate, BOL to you...

 

[substyle]

As long as the redzone success rate against the VT defense stays where it was last weekend I'll back Bud Foster.

 

[saucy]

Box
Been following you the last two weeks impressive tough luck on Arkansas though. I also plan on tailing you this week and agree with you 110% about VT especially at home playin beamer ball someone always steps up on special teams and its usually a game breaker I feel like this will be deja vu

 

[Ol-G-Parker]

I was really looking forward to this play myself. Seeing the line at 3 and higher V-Tech is a strong play. I myself hate the Hurricanes so I held off so my bias isn't placing this wager for me.

I never let teams I hate or love influence the way I wager, but your writeup summed up what I think of this team.

People have been wanting to ride the Cane wagon for years but to no avail. Now after a dropped TD pass a peewee football player could of made and a dog tired 1-Dimensional team in Tech who played 3 games in 15 days catches a whooping they are everybody's darlings. #9 in the country? Are you kidding me.

This team is average at best, but I will tell you Harris is a top 5-7 QB in the country at this very point. This team is no different then the last few years, but they have a Great quarterback. The defense is still undisciplined, extremely horrible tacklers and small upfront.

I'm not sure Miami doesn't win this game in a close, close game but my gut feeling is it is by 3 or less. I will wait, as I think this line not only reaches 4, but we may see a 5 - 5.5 come Saturday. So far this is the ACC game of the year, it will be one of the biggest games this week with such a shitty card. Like you mentioned, CHUCK and 5 million of his brothers have tuned in the past few weeks, books will adjust to keep pace.

 

[CollegeFan]

I'll say 2 more things before I post the next game:

1. A lot of people are coming in here and telling me stuff I already know. Handicapping is not about trying to figure out who the better team is on neutral turf with equal rest. If the better team always covered, we'd all be filthy rich. I'll leave it at that.

2. You don't want to be on the same side as the masses when betting. The masses don't win in sports betting. That wonderful place called Las Vegas wasn't built because everyone goes out there and cleans up.

When I first started posting here, I made the Classic RX mistake. I would click on my 5 or 6 favorite cappers thread, and if they all liked the same play I would follow it. And if everyone else also liked it, then I really liked it.

It's a hard concept to get comfortable with, but you want to be all by yourself usually when looking at what side you are on.

Again, this isn't some "I told you so" speech, because Va Tech could very well go out there and get their shit kicked in, and I will move on to the next play and continue my march to making money. Just giving my perspective.

While true, generally, it's also true that the "public" doesn't lose 100% of its plays, either...

As you know, it's just about picking and choosing the right spots.

In the past, I would have jumped all over Va. Tech in this spot. This year, I just can't back this team right now in this spot, with this anemic offense. Whipple has made tremendous strides with this Miami O. FSU is a decent football team (notwithstanding their struggles against Jax St - who cares), and that was a pretty impressive win, in my book. Regardless of who they have played thus far, Miami could barely get a first down last year, against anyone!

Anyway, good luck. I am probably staying away (slight lean UM). I wouldn't be surprised with a blowout either way..

 

[DChosta]

hm.. looks like line climbed back up to +3 (-110)

 

[TheHungerForMore]

http://rivals.yahoo.com/video/college-football/ncaa-football-miami-virginia-tech-preview-54761

 

[Boxslayer]

boxslayer,

it's obvious to me you are highly intellegent, I like your confidence and your conviction with your plays...

don't blame you for the Va. Tech play, agree with you that Nebraska will turn out to be a very good team...just have a tough time backing a team like Va. Tech who is giving up over 200 yards a game rushing...that, to me, will be the key to this game...at any rate, BOL to you...

Duly noted and respected viewpoint and i tend to agree. I am obviously "gambling" that the rushing stats are skewed a bit by the level of competition faced, and in this spot, I feel Va Tech will play over their heads a bit to add to my suspicion.

Miami is also not as physical as they typically are. They are a bit more finesse than the Miami teams we are used to seeing succeed. They won't have as much success at lining up and ramming it down Va Tech's throats as Bama or Nebraska did.

Miami is an improving program, a program that should remain a solid bet for the remainder of the season but they haven't reached elite status yet in reputation, talent, coaching, etc. And to me it takes an elite team, a special team, to go and win this game in this spot - all things considered.

To me... if you feel Miami is a special team, an elite team, and they have taken that jump to becoming a top 5 program, and being able to accomplish this feat of conquering this gauntlet schedule --- you bet Miami here.

If you feel Miami is not special enough yet to accomplish this feat, you bet Va Tech as a home underdog and grab points on top of it.

To each his own.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

:toast:

 

[Railbird]

I dont think Miami needs to be a top 5 team to beat Va Tech. Va Tech struggled with an overrated team from an overrated confrence in Nebraska.. Notice Sooners lay egg and Tex look mediocre. Notice the big 12 bowl failures. The Bama game not as close as score indicated.Someone else noted Bama had 350 more yards. Va Tech runs an easy to defend offense. Look at how good that fsu win looks after Seminolse trip to Provo. Miami -131 is what I played.

 

[shocker7]

Box

One thing everyone can agree on, Harris throws one of the prettiest footballs in college football. Did I say prettiest,,,,LoL. I have really enjoyed watching him the last couple of games. He also has shown a great deal of poise. That being said, it will be very interesting to see how he handles the pressure in Blacksburgh. I say he gets rattled and throws a couple interceptions, hopefully a pick 6!

Not quite as positive on VTech getting any more points in this one, as I think most people will be surprised, as I was, that Tech is a dog in this game. Either way I do like the fact they opened as a dog, an think it bodes very well for hokie backers.

 

[theycallmedug]

the better team dosnt always win/cover....Va Tech is one of those stingy teams that keeps themselves in games with defense and special teams play...im not taking anything away from miami, but this will probly be the toughest game they have played so far...ga tech was a puch over team with a horrible offense and jacory harris had time to eat a spaghetti dinner in the pocket....fla st was a straight shoot out and we all saw how that came down to the wire....im undecided in this game ...if i was forced to make a play i would take the points and probly buy it 3.5

 

[theycallmedug]

*ga tech was a push over team with a horrible defense and not a come from behind offense.....we saw what happened when nesbitt was forced to throw the ball

 

[ChasinAction]

thoughts on USC vs. Ole Miss tonight box???????

 

[jblonghorn]

It seems to me that if the books wanted the public to back Miami, they would've installed them as a pick'em?

 

[Boxslayer]

I dont think Miami needs to be a top 5 team to beat Va Tech. Va Tech struggled with an overrated team from an overrated confrence in Nebraska.. Notice Sooners lay egg and Tex look mediocre. Notice the big 12 bowl failures. The Bama game not as close as score indicated.Someone else noted Bama had 350 more yards. Va Tech runs an easy to defend offense. Look at how good that fsu win looks after Seminolse trip to Provo. Miami -131 is what I played.

Nebraska is a long forgotten program that nobody cares about anymore. Bo Pelini knows his shit and everyone has forgotten about the Cornholes while he has quietly built a strong program. I don't think they are overrated. Whether or not they are overrated as a conference is another discussion that I'll get kicked off here since you popped in...

Here are my conference top 5 rankings to date:

1. Pac-10
2. SEC
3. ACC
4. Big 12
5. MWC

I'm pretty sure your predictable list looks like this:

1. Pac-10
2. MWC
3. WAC
4. Sun Belt
5. Big 12

 

[sheetplayer]

It seems to me that if the books wanted the public to back Miami, they would've installed them as a pick'em?

They opened them at +1 1/2

 

[Boxslayer]

eh

 

[FearTheRaven]

It seems to me that if the books wanted the public to back Miami, they would've installed them as a pick'em?

Joe Pub would back Miami at anything under a TD imo.

 

[jblonghorn]

Nebraska is a long forgotten program that nobody cares about anymore. Bo Pelini knows his shit and everyone has forgotten about the Cornholes while he has quietly built a strong program. I don't think they are overrated. Whether or not they are overrated as a conference is another discussion that I'll get kicked off here since you popped in...

Here are my conference top 5 rankings to date:

1. Pac-10
2. SEC
3. ACC
4. Big 12
5. MWC

I'm pretty sure your predictable list looks like this:

1. Pac-10
2. MWC
3. WAC
4. Sun Belt
5. Big 12

I see this list changing BIG as the season goes on. The cream will rise (SEC and Big XII).