Box - first time posting, but have been following your plays for 2 years now. Thanks for all the great analysis (and the $)...consistently not just the most informative, but also the most accurate - best on the Rx in my opinion.
I'm a huge follower of VT and the ACC in general - last year went 5-0 ATS on VT games, laying off only 1 ATS win, and successfully laying off all games they lost ATS (won't bet against them).
I think you nailed a lot of great angles to this game - especially the softer analysis (ie VT great as a home dog, Miami a very public bet, Miami only beaten avg teams, etc). Just wanted to add a few worrisome things on VT for your consideration that may be helpful to you and others looking at this game.
- VT's reputation for defense/special teams is pretty well known. Bud Foster continues to pump out top5-10 defense year after year so the public reputation is well merited. That said, something is up this year. As others have mentioned VT is giving up over 5 yds on the ground and ranks #107 in rush defense nationally. Sure, Bama and Big Red have strong rushing attacks, but I watched the full Marshall game, and the Tech D was still getting gashed for huge runs consistently.
The defensive scheme is highly geared towards stopping the run first and foremost and getting lots of pressure on the QB. If that isn't happening, the rest of the D starts falling apart too. VT has done neither well this year. Teams are doubling up on DE Worilds, and other DEs have been unable to generate pressure. Additionally, the new LB'ers are really struggling, particularly R-FR Jake Johnson who is like a chicken running around with its head cut off. In summary, Miami may find more success than expected this Saturday. I expect the RBs to find some running room, albeit less than Bama and Nebraska, and I really don't like VT's young linebackers matching up with the Miami TEs on pass coverage. Lastly, the top CB Virgil continues to struggle with injury and may not play - a huge loss vs. Miami speed at WR. I don't think Shannon is a particularly great gameday coach, but he's also not an idiot - and he's sure to take advantage of these match-ups.
Bottom line on VT defense vs. Miami O is going to be whether or not VT can continue successfully "bending but not breaking." They held Nebraska to 5 field goals in 6 red zone attempts last week, and that was easily the difference in the game. In fact, so far this season, they are 3rd in the nation on TDs allowed per red zone visit at 3/15 (PennSt, UF tied at 1st - 1/6). If they stand a chance vs. Miami - this trend must continue (a big if).
- VT's offense is a joke - nothing else needs to be said. If it weren't for RB Ryan Williams (who tweaked his ankle last week and wasn't as effective afterwards), VT's O would have been nearly non-existent in last week's game vs. Nebraska. Even after such an exciting win, fans are still livid about the offense and calling for Stinespring's head (OC). Though he continues to find ways to win, QB Tyrod Taylor is still really struggling to a) see over the OL and b) have the confidence to make throws. This has led teams to follow a very simple formula: Blitz! the OL falls apart (as it has the last 3-4 years), and Tyrod is forced to scramble or make quick decisions. What is he going to do against a very aggressive Miami D? If history holds, it'll result in a lot of sacks, some great scrambles, and many throw aways into the stands. As a VT fan, I'm hoping for a lot of scrambling, but I'm guessing it'll be an even mix of all of the above.
- In summary, I 100% agree with all of your situational points, but am very nervous about the match-ups, uncharacteristic VT defense, and absolutely atrocious VT offense. I'm also worried about the fact that VT was absolutely manhandled by Nebraska on both sides of the ball and escaped at home by complete fluke. In my opinion, Miami is slightly more talented than Nebraska (but with worse coaching). And though I agree Miami is severely overrated right now, I think VT may be equally overrated. I'm really torn on this one and at this point am only a slight VT lean (for the factors you've already stated).
Thanks again for all your work here - I know I surely appreciate it, and will continue to tail you as I did last season.
Good luck!
I'm a huge follower of VT and the ACC in general - last year went 5-0 ATS on VT games, laying off only 1 ATS win, and successfully laying off all games they lost ATS (won't bet against them).
I think you nailed a lot of great angles to this game - especially the softer analysis (ie VT great as a home dog, Miami a very public bet, Miami only beaten avg teams, etc). Just wanted to add a few worrisome things on VT for your consideration that may be helpful to you and others looking at this game.
- VT's reputation for defense/special teams is pretty well known. Bud Foster continues to pump out top5-10 defense year after year so the public reputation is well merited. That said, something is up this year. As others have mentioned VT is giving up over 5 yds on the ground and ranks #107 in rush defense nationally. Sure, Bama and Big Red have strong rushing attacks, but I watched the full Marshall game, and the Tech D was still getting gashed for huge runs consistently.
The defensive scheme is highly geared towards stopping the run first and foremost and getting lots of pressure on the QB. If that isn't happening, the rest of the D starts falling apart too. VT has done neither well this year. Teams are doubling up on DE Worilds, and other DEs have been unable to generate pressure. Additionally, the new LB'ers are really struggling, particularly R-FR Jake Johnson who is like a chicken running around with its head cut off. In summary, Miami may find more success than expected this Saturday. I expect the RBs to find some running room, albeit less than Bama and Nebraska, and I really don't like VT's young linebackers matching up with the Miami TEs on pass coverage. Lastly, the top CB Virgil continues to struggle with injury and may not play - a huge loss vs. Miami speed at WR. I don't think Shannon is a particularly great gameday coach, but he's also not an idiot - and he's sure to take advantage of these match-ups.
Bottom line on VT defense vs. Miami O is going to be whether or not VT can continue successfully "bending but not breaking." They held Nebraska to 5 field goals in 6 red zone attempts last week, and that was easily the difference in the game. In fact, so far this season, they are 3rd in the nation on TDs allowed per red zone visit at 3/15 (PennSt, UF tied at 1st - 1/6). If they stand a chance vs. Miami - this trend must continue (a big if).
- VT's offense is a joke - nothing else needs to be said. If it weren't for RB Ryan Williams (who tweaked his ankle last week and wasn't as effective afterwards), VT's O would have been nearly non-existent in last week's game vs. Nebraska. Even after such an exciting win, fans are still livid about the offense and calling for Stinespring's head (OC). Though he continues to find ways to win, QB Tyrod Taylor is still really struggling to a) see over the OL and b) have the confidence to make throws. This has led teams to follow a very simple formula: Blitz! the OL falls apart (as it has the last 3-4 years), and Tyrod is forced to scramble or make quick decisions. What is he going to do against a very aggressive Miami D? If history holds, it'll result in a lot of sacks, some great scrambles, and many throw aways into the stands. As a VT fan, I'm hoping for a lot of scrambling, but I'm guessing it'll be an even mix of all of the above.
- In summary, I 100% agree with all of your situational points, but am very nervous about the match-ups, uncharacteristic VT defense, and absolutely atrocious VT offense. I'm also worried about the fact that VT was absolutely manhandled by Nebraska on both sides of the ball and escaped at home by complete fluke. In my opinion, Miami is slightly more talented than Nebraska (but with worse coaching). And though I agree Miami is severely overrated right now, I think VT may be equally overrated. I'm really torn on this one and at this point am only a slight VT lean (for the factors you've already stated).
Thanks again for all your work here - I know I surely appreciate it, and will continue to tail you as I did last season.
Good luck!
Line now at 3 for most of the books. I actually think that it won't get any higher than 3.5, if that, because a lot of sharp money will come in on VT every time or any time that the magical 3.5 goes up.
Miami seems like the kind of play that is heavy public early, but I see that changing as the week goes on, with the number possibly heading back down closer to the opening line.
But what do I know. :think2:
Miami seems like the kind of play that is heavy public early, but I see that changing as the week goes on, with the number possibly heading back down closer to the opening line.
But what do I know. :think2:
Some really good posts, especially that one by the first timer.
We can go back and forth with stats, and do a positional comparison and see where coverage breaks down, and talk about stunts, and double teams and blitzes, and we can do a full blown paralysis by analysis. Here's the one thing you gotta understand about this game that trumps every stat and every matchup, and every injury, and every breakdown:
Virginia Tech is the disrespected home underdog, while Miami is reading headlines about how good they are.
60% of the time it works every time.
We can go back and forth with stats, and do a positional comparison and see where coverage breaks down, and talk about stunts, and double teams and blitzes, and we can do a full blown paralysis by analysis. Here's the one thing you gotta understand about this game that trumps every stat and every matchup, and every injury, and every breakdown:
Virginia Tech is the disrespected home underdog, while Miami is reading headlines about how good they are.
60% of the time it works every time.
Really good post, love seeing some reasonable, non homers with some good analysis.
A couple things I'll say in response to this:
1. Angles/spot will many times trump stats. Because of the spot, you will see a different set of teams than you are used to. If the better team always won and covered, everyone would be rich. So one of the keys to sports betting is to identify the times when the better team is not going to win and cover. To me, this is one of those spots, and I am obviously willing to gamble on it.
2. I don't think Virginia Tech is the better overall team, but I do think they should have been favored in this game. Some newbie bettors reading that sentence may be scratching their heads. The better team is not always favored, and that is important to note - especially in this scenario - to understand why I like Virginia Tech.
3. Va Tech run defense - Again, Bama and Nebraska are smash mouth teams that are run by defensive minded head coaches and want to pound the rock. 90% of the teams in the country if they faced those 2 teams with Marshall as their sandwich game, would be ranked in the lower 3rd of run defense. It's not always comparing apples to apples to list rush defense rankings and numbers and compare them to other teams that havent faced the same competition. I'll venture to guess that Va Tech will be ranked as a middle of the pack rush defense when the season is said and done, and in this game, in this spot, they should play like a top 1/3 rush defense. The Marshall game had 1 break down on a run play that went for 61 yards, you take that play out and Marshall averaged 3.1 yards per carry in a sandwich game.
4. What Virginia Tech team are we going to see in this game? You are going to see the Va Tech that battled Bama in this game. People, fans have been calling for their heads, they are angry, they want this and that, Va Tech will be motivated and focused. They lost by 10, late, vs an Alabama team that is arguably the best in the country on neutral turf. Bama is flat out better than Miami in almost every phase of the game. Va Tech is also at home. What Miami team will we see in this game? One we havent seen yet. Two national TV games for Miami, now they play on Saturday out of state, none of which they have done yet. Miami has difficulty defending dual threat QBs, and on the other side Va Tech has held every QB they have faced this year to complete 50% or less of their passes, leading to a #12 pass efficiency defense ranking despite the way their run defense has performed. If you watched the FSU/Miami game, you will see Miami WRs literally just run right past FSU DBs while they stood there. It was embarassing coverage for FSU, and next week Miami took advantage of an emotionally spent Ga Tech team in Miamis home opener and momentum snow balled. Miami is good, but not as good as they seem right now and not good enough to go into Va Tech and play their 3rd tough game in a row in hostile territory.
I second the notion that VA Tech is very overrated. The main question to ask is whether or not Miami is playing better than the typical ACC team. It has been VA Tech habit to dominate and look sharp in the ACC due to lack of strong teams in the ACC. Take them out of their element and up against a non-conference team with some weapons and there offense is exposed and the D looks average (which it is). Beamer ball was dead last year and it looks like the touted D is dying this year. If Miami wins in Lane Stadium I don't think they will look back for a couple years. I think Miami wins this one in a dominating fashion. But can't make a play b/c Lane stadium is a weird place for visiting teams.
I would consider myself pretty tight with the Nebraska team, and I know that Virginia Tech is quite banged up after that game. Quite a number of players said the Nebraska front 7 hit them harder than Alabama ever did, and could barely shake hands post-game.
Also, I have a strong issue with the philosophy that Nebraska is a run-the-rock focused offense, but that was the gameplan against VaTech.
I support your side on VaTech, but wanted to pass that info on.
Also, I have a strong issue with the philosophy that Nebraska is a run-the-rock focused offense, but that was the gameplan against VaTech.
I support your side on VaTech, but wanted to pass that info on.
I am scared of this game. I know Miami is the better team but am like you a believer in situational spots like this. VT is being disrespected as if they are completely outclassed here. While the talent gap is there, it is not like "The U" has officially come back.
They are getting there but honestly have no business being in the top 10 based on the wins they have.
They are getting there but honestly have no business being in the top 10 based on the wins they have.
Vt has coaching and home field, but they are off an emotional tough somewhat lucky win themselves. Nebr. totally controlled the tech offense and I certainly see miami following the pelini gameplan of stop the run and make Taylor beat you with his arm. It was successful and I dont see how vt will improve their offense this quickly.
Box,
Without going into the in depth analysis that you do, I respectfully disagree with many of your points. I see a very average Beamer team, offense and defense. They were ran over by Alabama. Beamer looked like a dear in headlights as did many of the players. In my opinion they were lucky to win against Neb. I like many others expected them to blow out Neb. I saw a team that lacked the hunger, speed and physical attributes I have come to know Beamer ball for. I just don't see the athletes that they used to have.
Miami on the other hand is very young, physical and fast. Jacory appears to have poise, mabye two or three times the poise and play making ability of VT's QB. RBs, WRs and Off line, edge Miami. Defenses, equal. I just haven't seen the dominant VT defense of past. Miami is starting to get playmakers back. The cream of the crop is no longer leaving South Florida. This should be a good game if VT shows up, I just haven't seen it yet.
BWD :toast:
Without going into the in depth analysis that you do, I respectfully disagree with many of your points. I see a very average Beamer team, offense and defense. They were ran over by Alabama. Beamer looked like a dear in headlights as did many of the players. In my opinion they were lucky to win against Neb. I like many others expected them to blow out Neb. I saw a team that lacked the hunger, speed and physical attributes I have come to know Beamer ball for. I just don't see the athletes that they used to have.
Miami on the other hand is very young, physical and fast. Jacory appears to have poise, mabye two or three times the poise and play making ability of VT's QB. RBs, WRs and Off line, edge Miami. Defenses, equal. I just haven't seen the dominant VT defense of past. Miami is starting to get playmakers back. The cream of the crop is no longer leaving South Florida. This should be a good game if VT shows up, I just haven't seen it yet.
BWD :toast:
hno:If this game is played at the end of the year, Miami would be 9 pt faves. This is the weakest VT defense in a decade and people are still wondering if The U is for real. VT and OU games vs Miami will be the last two games to get any value. Miami will be huge favorites for the rest of the year after they complete the gauntlet with 4 wins.
