God we got fucked on that Navy play. Might be the worst bowl bad beat of my life. I bought the 1/2 point to +3.5, went to change my little girl's diaper thinking we had it in hand w/ a couple of kneeldowns, and heard that crap (no pun intended) from afar and almost passed out. Started my day off horrible and didn't get any better w/ Memphis or Dallas or BYU. With you and Randizzle on it I loaded up. Wrong. Unbelievable. Let's get 'em next time. GL Slayer.
navy was worn down. i really wish they could of made that tackle to at least save a push. everything that could go wrong, did.
also the memphis game would of been way closer if the memphis qb did not get hurt. he was horrible in the 2nd half after the injury.
i am pumped for tcu/bsu. from looking at box's power rankings, looks like tcu could be a strong play. i love their defense and the only reason their record is different than bsu is who they played.
tommorow's game is poop, not suprised box has no play.
I feel you. Literally, everything had to fall perfectly in place in that game for Wake to cover. If just 1 of 4 different things happen, Navy covers. Tough break to go from 2-1, to 1-2. But there are a LOT of games this bowl season.
As I mentioned above, I am a big market team kind of capper and 3*, 4*, 5* even 6* plays will become regular plays throughout bowl season. So I wouldn't unload on anything I keep under 4* in the bowl season - they are just small plays on small market teams.
Plenty of bowl season to come and plenty of big plays to come.
The power rankings don't tell the whole story, because my power rankings, angles, trends, pointed to BYU last night but as a handicapper, I didnt like the play so I laid off of it. Not saying I won't like TCU - just saying there is more to it.
Today is a poopy game, and I am tired of betting on poopy games. I'm ready for the big dogs. TCU and Boise is a nice place to start.
4* TCU Horned Frogs -3 -110
The Line: This game is billed as the showdown between two of the best non-BCS teams in the land. Boise State is America's favorite non-BCS team. Their win over Oklahoma 2 years ago was arguably the greatest football game ever played. They are arguably the most public non-BCS team out there. Boise is grabbing 3 points here, and that has resulted in the public grabbing a whole lot of Boise State ML at an 80% clip, and some numbers project that the public is 56% on Boise State on sides as well. I always love when a team with 2 losses is favored over an undefeated team, especially a public team like Boise.
Motivation: I don't think either team is taking the other lightly, however, after beating OU a few years ago in a BCS game and going undefeated this year, Boise has to feel slightly snubbed here to not get into a bigger game. I think there is slight disappointment here for Boise, but not enough to give any significant edges in motivation. One of TCUs most notable alumni behind Ladainian Tomlinson, Sammy Baugh, passed away recently and there will be a tribute to him in this game. TCU should play very emotionally and be ready to roll. With the game at Qualcomm, I also expect a visit from LT. Plenty of intangibles here for TCU to play inspired football.
Trends: Trends are fairly even for both sides, so I will just list key trends for TCU. Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games. Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Horned Frogs are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite. Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. WAC.
Stat of the Game: TCU leads the country in rush D and #2 in sacks.
Analysis: After winning on Colorado State over Fresno, we have seen yet another MWC victory, and that one over a WAC school - just like we have here again. The MWC continues to prove that it should be mentioned in the same breath with "BCS" conferences.
TCU is one of the class teams of the MWC, while Boise State is the class of the WAC.
TCU has two losses this year, but ignore both of those as both were on the road to BCS teams like Oklahoma and Utah. Boise State hasnt been tested anywhere close to this quality of teams. What is important to note, is that TCU's defene held Oklahoma and Utah to their season low point outputs on their own home turf. Other than that, TCUs defense has been flat out dominant, shutting down everyone except for OU whom they slowed, and doing it vs. good offenses like OU, Utah and BYU. They do it by stopping the run first and foremost, and putting you in obvious passing situations where they bring a variety of blitz packages to confuse the QB and put a lot of pressure on him. Boise State QB Kellen Moore has had a great season, but he is just a freshman playing in his first bowl game, and he will have to carry the load in this game vs. the best defense he has faced in his life. Ian Johnson is the big name for Boise in the ground game, but the undersized tailback will be in for a tough day as TCUs run D is extremely stout, as an example they held OU to 74 yards on 35 carries. TCUs ability to stop the run will put Kellen Moore in obvious passing situations and 3rd and longs, and this TCU defense can pin their ears back, and bring blitz packages on the freshman QB. I think TCU will force plenty of mistakes on Moore and will run away with this game as momentum builds.
Boise's offense is overrated this year. Whenever they have played a defense with a pulse, they have scored in the 20s and 30s. When they have played some of the worst defenses in the country is when they have put up their 49's, and 50s.
On offense, TCU is not as explosive as Boise State - and they dont need to be. They are going to grind yards out on the ground first and foremost. They have the #13 rushing attack in the country averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground. QB Andy Dalton is in his 3rd year at TCU, 2nd as a starter, and provides enough balance for this offense to keep defenses honest against the pass. A rock solid ground game should keep that Boise offense on the sidelines. TCU has a long stable of fresh RBs to give the ball to.
The question here is how good is Boise's defense? 32 points given up vs. Oregon and 34 vs. Nevada is really not something TCU would do. It really looks as though Boise States defense has not been tested too much this year - shutting down teams they are clearly superior to. TCUs O-line has some plus sized Texas boys on the line and they should outsize them in the trenches.
Overall, TCUs defense hasnt just been good, they have been outstanding all year long. This is an elite unit that can change the game by themselves. By stuffing the run and pressuring the freshmen QB, TCU should create momentum in this game and wear down Boise's defense on the ground. This will allow TCU to put the nail in the coffin in the this game.
TCU 27
Boise State 19
The Line: This game is billed as the showdown between two of the best non-BCS teams in the land. Boise State is America's favorite non-BCS team. Their win over Oklahoma 2 years ago was arguably the greatest football game ever played. They are arguably the most public non-BCS team out there. Boise is grabbing 3 points here, and that has resulted in the public grabbing a whole lot of Boise State ML at an 80% clip, and some numbers project that the public is 56% on Boise State on sides as well. I always love when a team with 2 losses is favored over an undefeated team, especially a public team like Boise.
Motivation: I don't think either team is taking the other lightly, however, after beating OU a few years ago in a BCS game and going undefeated this year, Boise has to feel slightly snubbed here to not get into a bigger game. I think there is slight disappointment here for Boise, but not enough to give any significant edges in motivation. One of TCUs most notable alumni behind Ladainian Tomlinson, Sammy Baugh, passed away recently and there will be a tribute to him in this game. TCU should play very emotionally and be ready to roll. With the game at Qualcomm, I also expect a visit from LT. Plenty of intangibles here for TCU to play inspired football.
Trends: Trends are fairly even for both sides, so I will just list key trends for TCU. Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games. Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Horned Frogs are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite. Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. WAC.
Stat of the Game: TCU leads the country in rush D and #2 in sacks.
Analysis: After winning on Colorado State over Fresno, we have seen yet another MWC victory, and that one over a WAC school - just like we have here again. The MWC continues to prove that it should be mentioned in the same breath with "BCS" conferences.
TCU is one of the class teams of the MWC, while Boise State is the class of the WAC.
TCU has two losses this year, but ignore both of those as both were on the road to BCS teams like Oklahoma and Utah. Boise State hasnt been tested anywhere close to this quality of teams. What is important to note, is that TCU's defene held Oklahoma and Utah to their season low point outputs on their own home turf. Other than that, TCUs defense has been flat out dominant, shutting down everyone except for OU whom they slowed, and doing it vs. good offenses like OU, Utah and BYU. They do it by stopping the run first and foremost, and putting you in obvious passing situations where they bring a variety of blitz packages to confuse the QB and put a lot of pressure on him. Boise State QB Kellen Moore has had a great season, but he is just a freshman playing in his first bowl game, and he will have to carry the load in this game vs. the best defense he has faced in his life. Ian Johnson is the big name for Boise in the ground game, but the undersized tailback will be in for a tough day as TCUs run D is extremely stout, as an example they held OU to 74 yards on 35 carries. TCUs ability to stop the run will put Kellen Moore in obvious passing situations and 3rd and longs, and this TCU defense can pin their ears back, and bring blitz packages on the freshman QB. I think TCU will force plenty of mistakes on Moore and will run away with this game as momentum builds.
Boise's offense is overrated this year. Whenever they have played a defense with a pulse, they have scored in the 20s and 30s. When they have played some of the worst defenses in the country is when they have put up their 49's, and 50s.
On offense, TCU is not as explosive as Boise State - and they dont need to be. They are going to grind yards out on the ground first and foremost. They have the #13 rushing attack in the country averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground. QB Andy Dalton is in his 3rd year at TCU, 2nd as a starter, and provides enough balance for this offense to keep defenses honest against the pass. A rock solid ground game should keep that Boise offense on the sidelines. TCU has a long stable of fresh RBs to give the ball to.
The question here is how good is Boise's defense? 32 points given up vs. Oregon and 34 vs. Nevada is really not something TCU would do. It really looks as though Boise States defense has not been tested too much this year - shutting down teams they are clearly superior to. TCUs O-line has some plus sized Texas boys on the line and they should outsize them in the trenches.
Overall, TCUs defense hasnt just been good, they have been outstanding all year long. This is an elite unit that can change the game by themselves. By stuffing the run and pressuring the freshmen QB, TCU should create momentum in this game and wear down Boise's defense on the ground. This will allow TCU to put the nail in the coffin in the this game.
TCU 27
Boise State 19
Stat of the Game: TCU leads the country in rush D and #2 in sacks.
Dont forget their starting LB is out. Academic ineligibility..
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...ries/stories/122208dnspotcunotes.938439b.html
Dont forget their starting LB is out. Academic ineligibility..
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...ries/stories/122208dnspotcunotes.938439b.html
I saw sweet lou. Otherwise, I had TCU at 6*. I literally lowered the play by 2 units because he is out. Still a fairly strong play.
However, the most important part of this game is freshman QB Kellen Moore vs. the serious blitz packages and pass rush of TCU. If you've watched TCU games this year, they bring the HOUSE with very creative blitz packages and they bring serious heat on a QB. They come from any and all angles and they really put a QB into a panic mode. For a QB, to master this, remain calm in the pocket, find the open man, and take a hit and make a strong throw takes a lot of experience. This is something I am sure Kellen Moore hasnt had to do a whole lot of in his life and if Boise was starting a 3 year starter at QB, or a senior that has been tested by good defenses, maybe I rethink this play. Moore will have never faced anything like this in his life to date, and I think he will lose confidence in this game and become a rattled and different QB as the game goes on - gun shy and confused. I expect definitely one pick-6, maybe 2.
I'd be more concerned if Jerry Hughes was out than Henson.
If this kid Moore can stand in the line of fire as a freshman, take the blitzes, read the coverages and make the throws and march his team down the field without a running game to keep TCU honest, I will tip my hat to Moore and move on to the next game. It's just so rare to see though and the guys who are able to do it are usually big time QBs that will end up in the NFL. Like if this was TCU vs. Boston College with Matt Ryan, I'd play BC here who can negate that pass rush, stand tall in the pocket and make NFL throws.
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