arty:
1* Colorado State Rams +2.5 -110
The Line: A lot of people saw how strong the Mountain West was this year, and we also saw how the WAC was in a down year. Even when the WAC had a good year last year, and put a great Hawaii team into a BCS game, they got destroyed by what proved to be an above average Georgia team. The WAC competition is not very good, and the Mountain West is easily the superior conference w/ teams like Utah, TCU, BYU, etc. So, to get a more battle tested MWC team getting points vs. a WAC team is a good buy here. I would guess Fresno State is the more public team here, being a California team who has their share of playing in the limelight and fresh off a college baseball National Title, and that is why you see them as the favorite - and a very inviting favorite at that - where a FG win makes you a winner. Over 65% of the public sits on the Bulldogs right now.
Motivation: Many Colorado State players and coaches have said how they are excited to just be in a bowl game. This is their Super Bowl, and for first year Rams coach Steve Fairchild, who is a former QB for the Rams, he will be fired up to win one for his alma mater in his first year at the helm. Meanwhile, Fresno is now in their 9th bowl game in the last 10 years. Making a bowl game has become a regular occurence for these guys, and considering the weak bowl games Fresno has been in over the years - their wins in these bowl games have probably been pretty anti-climatic. It's part of the reason why Fresno head coach Pat Hill has been interviewing for any job he can find to upgrade from the WAC and get out of this endless cycle of meaningless bowl games.
Trends: Colorado St is 6-4 all time vs. Fresno, Fresno is 4-4 all time vs. the MWC. Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings vs. Colorado State. Bulldogs are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite. Rams are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
My Line: Colorado State -6
Stat of the Game: Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. MWC.
Analysis: Both QBs here, Fresno's Tom Brandstater and State's Billy Farris have identical passing numbers, completing 60% of their passes, 17/11 TD/INT ratios and throwing for near equal yardage. I believe Farris did it in the tougher conference. Bookmakers have had a tough time figuring this series out as the underdog has won two of the past 3 games outright. Fresno comes in losing 3 of their last 5, while Colorado comes in winning 3 of their last 5 to make a push for bowl eligibility. Colorado won their final 2 games, while Fresno lost their season finale. Fresno averaged just 19 PPG in their final 3 games offensively. So again, we have a case of two teams going in opposite directions. Most importantly, in a game like this, I want the team who makes less mistakes. Colorado owns the advantage in 3rd down conversion, turnovers, penalties per game and penalty yardage and those mistakes by Fresno, with an unfocused coach who was out interviewing for other jobs, vs. a passionate head coach like Fairchild, coaching at his alma mater means a more focused Rams team that played in a tougher conference.
Colorado State 27
Fresno State 21
The Line: A lot of people saw how strong the Mountain West was this year, and we also saw how the WAC was in a down year. Even when the WAC had a good year last year, and put a great Hawaii team into a BCS game, they got destroyed by what proved to be an above average Georgia team. The WAC competition is not very good, and the Mountain West is easily the superior conference w/ teams like Utah, TCU, BYU, etc. So, to get a more battle tested MWC team getting points vs. a WAC team is a good buy here. I would guess Fresno State is the more public team here, being a California team who has their share of playing in the limelight and fresh off a college baseball National Title, and that is why you see them as the favorite - and a very inviting favorite at that - where a FG win makes you a winner. Over 65% of the public sits on the Bulldogs right now.
Motivation: Many Colorado State players and coaches have said how they are excited to just be in a bowl game. This is their Super Bowl, and for first year Rams coach Steve Fairchild, who is a former QB for the Rams, he will be fired up to win one for his alma mater in his first year at the helm. Meanwhile, Fresno is now in their 9th bowl game in the last 10 years. Making a bowl game has become a regular occurence for these guys, and considering the weak bowl games Fresno has been in over the years - their wins in these bowl games have probably been pretty anti-climatic. It's part of the reason why Fresno head coach Pat Hill has been interviewing for any job he can find to upgrade from the WAC and get out of this endless cycle of meaningless bowl games.
Trends: Colorado St is 6-4 all time vs. Fresno, Fresno is 4-4 all time vs. the MWC. Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings vs. Colorado State. Bulldogs are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite. Rams are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
My Line: Colorado State -6
Stat of the Game: Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. MWC.
Analysis: Both QBs here, Fresno's Tom Brandstater and State's Billy Farris have identical passing numbers, completing 60% of their passes, 17/11 TD/INT ratios and throwing for near equal yardage. I believe Farris did it in the tougher conference. Bookmakers have had a tough time figuring this series out as the underdog has won two of the past 3 games outright. Fresno comes in losing 3 of their last 5, while Colorado comes in winning 3 of their last 5 to make a push for bowl eligibility. Colorado won their final 2 games, while Fresno lost their season finale. Fresno averaged just 19 PPG in their final 3 games offensively. So again, we have a case of two teams going in opposite directions. Most importantly, in a game like this, I want the team who makes less mistakes. Colorado owns the advantage in 3rd down conversion, turnovers, penalties per game and penalty yardage and those mistakes by Fresno, with an unfocused coach who was out interviewing for other jobs, vs. a passionate head coach like Fairchild, coaching at his alma mater means a more focused Rams team that played in a tougher conference.
Colorado State 27
Fresno State 21
2* Memphis Tigers +11.5 -110
The Line: Due to public perception, USF easily gets double digits here, and the public is still laying it. No fishy lines here. I came into this game expecting USF to be double digits, and they are completely overvalued.
Motivation: USF has been a program on the rise, and for the first time in school history was ranked preseason. They saw their ranking rise to #10 after a strong start, but after this team was exposed, they dropped fast and now went from playing for a potential BCS game, to the first day of bowl games. We have seen USF get up and get motivated for big upsets over major BCS schools like Auburn, West Virginia, etc. But they have also been the victim to let downs vs. teams they shouldnt lose to. You have to expect Memphis to be the motivated team here, and USF to come out flat, regardless of where this game is.
My Line: USF -3
Trends: Memphis won the most recent meeting in 2004 31-14. Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Stat of the Game: Memphis sports 5 receivers with at least 25 catches this year, showing how they can spread the ball and remain balanced.
Analysis: Conference USA is very similar to the Big East, IMO, with not much seperating the two conferences. In fact, my formulas give South FL a strength of schedule of 62 and Memphis 69, showing that their schedules weren't that far off. USF can take advantage of finesse teams, with predictable attacks, but they struggle vs. offenses with balance. Memphis has balance on offense with a playmaking QB that can run with the ball, a 1,000 yard rusher, and 5 receivers that have at least 25 receptions. Memphis can spread the ball around and most importantly they can run the ball, running clock and keeping Grothe on the sideline. Meanwhile, USF is a one man show and teams have figured out USF - stop Matt Grothe. He is their leading passer and leading rusher by a mile. Ford has only 350+ yards on the ground this year, their leading rusher that is a RB. USF sports 3 players with 25+ catches. And after graduating their stud cornerbacks, and their stud running back a few years ago, this team has quietly gotten progressively worse, while getting built up in the media simply because Grothe was still the QB and Selive was still rushing QBs. However, USF has backed off their blitzing now that they have new corners, and Selvie has seen his sack total drop tremendously. Memphis does a terrific job of protecting the QB, ranking 26 in the country in sacks allowed, and his scrambling ability means Memphis should be able to convert 3rd downs and keep the chains moving - a category that they already have the advantage in over USF.
Memphis has not lost a lot of games by double digits this year. In fact, just two games. One to Ole Miss who is a very good, underrated team and one to East Carolina at East Carolina when East Carolina was playing very good football. Other than that, they have kept all of their losses close. USF is not built to blow people out as evidenced by their schedule. Tenn-Martin (horrible), Syracuse (horrible) and NC State (when they were playing very bad football and didnt have their starting QB going), are the only 3 teams USF has beaten by double digits. Common opponents UCF, and Louisville, both beat Memphis and USF by similar margins - less than double digits.
USF comes backing into this bowl game, losing 5 of their last 7 games. Memphis, meanwhile, comes in winning 3 of their last 4. USF has also only scored 14 PPG in their last 5 games, a major sign that Grothe being a one man show does not cut it for this offense. Memphis has holes in the defense, but if they can stop Grothe, key in on him, run the football on offense and continue to spread the wealth, and pound that ground game, they have a very good shot at winning this game straight up.
11 points is way too much here. USF is simply not what they used to be, and these two teams are very comparable.
USF 27
Memphis 24
The Line: Due to public perception, USF easily gets double digits here, and the public is still laying it. No fishy lines here. I came into this game expecting USF to be double digits, and they are completely overvalued.
Motivation: USF has been a program on the rise, and for the first time in school history was ranked preseason. They saw their ranking rise to #10 after a strong start, but after this team was exposed, they dropped fast and now went from playing for a potential BCS game, to the first day of bowl games. We have seen USF get up and get motivated for big upsets over major BCS schools like Auburn, West Virginia, etc. But they have also been the victim to let downs vs. teams they shouldnt lose to. You have to expect Memphis to be the motivated team here, and USF to come out flat, regardless of where this game is.
My Line: USF -3
Trends: Memphis won the most recent meeting in 2004 31-14. Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Stat of the Game: Memphis sports 5 receivers with at least 25 catches this year, showing how they can spread the ball and remain balanced.
Analysis: Conference USA is very similar to the Big East, IMO, with not much seperating the two conferences. In fact, my formulas give South FL a strength of schedule of 62 and Memphis 69, showing that their schedules weren't that far off. USF can take advantage of finesse teams, with predictable attacks, but they struggle vs. offenses with balance. Memphis has balance on offense with a playmaking QB that can run with the ball, a 1,000 yard rusher, and 5 receivers that have at least 25 receptions. Memphis can spread the ball around and most importantly they can run the ball, running clock and keeping Grothe on the sideline. Meanwhile, USF is a one man show and teams have figured out USF - stop Matt Grothe. He is their leading passer and leading rusher by a mile. Ford has only 350+ yards on the ground this year, their leading rusher that is a RB. USF sports 3 players with 25+ catches. And after graduating their stud cornerbacks, and their stud running back a few years ago, this team has quietly gotten progressively worse, while getting built up in the media simply because Grothe was still the QB and Selive was still rushing QBs. However, USF has backed off their blitzing now that they have new corners, and Selvie has seen his sack total drop tremendously. Memphis does a terrific job of protecting the QB, ranking 26 in the country in sacks allowed, and his scrambling ability means Memphis should be able to convert 3rd downs and keep the chains moving - a category that they already have the advantage in over USF.
Memphis has not lost a lot of games by double digits this year. In fact, just two games. One to Ole Miss who is a very good, underrated team and one to East Carolina at East Carolina when East Carolina was playing very good football. Other than that, they have kept all of their losses close. USF is not built to blow people out as evidenced by their schedule. Tenn-Martin (horrible), Syracuse (horrible) and NC State (when they were playing very bad football and didnt have their starting QB going), are the only 3 teams USF has beaten by double digits. Common opponents UCF, and Louisville, both beat Memphis and USF by similar margins - less than double digits.
USF comes backing into this bowl game, losing 5 of their last 7 games. Memphis, meanwhile, comes in winning 3 of their last 4. USF has also only scored 14 PPG in their last 5 games, a major sign that Grothe being a one man show does not cut it for this offense. Memphis has holes in the defense, but if they can stop Grothe, key in on him, run the football on offense and continue to spread the wealth, and pound that ground game, they have a very good shot at winning this game straight up.
11 points is way too much here. USF is simply not what they used to be, and these two teams are very comparable.
USF 27
Memphis 24
Sorry, thanks for asking that.
During the regular season it is 1*-5*.
1* = Small play.
2* = Typical sized play
3* = Slightly above average play
4* = Real solid play
5* = Very rare play, almost every angle in my favor
During bowl season, however, it is a bit more common for me to bet higher units - and as we approach the bigger games I throw more money on them. National Title games past two years have been 8* plays. BCS Bowls are usually minimum 3* or higher. Reason being not because it is a bigger game so I want more action, but because I am typically the guy who wagers on the big teams only, I know the big market teams very well, I am a big game hunter, and when I have seen both teams play a bunch and cap the game, I hit at a good rate so I invest more money.
I am keeping my plays relatively small as bowl season starts and as it progresses I will begin bumping units up.
Good luck
During the regular season it is 1*-5*.
1* = Small play.
2* = Typical sized play
3* = Slightly above average play
4* = Real solid play
5* = Very rare play, almost every angle in my favor
During bowl season, however, it is a bit more common for me to bet higher units - and as we approach the bigger games I throw more money on them. National Title games past two years have been 8* plays. BCS Bowls are usually minimum 3* or higher. Reason being not because it is a bigger game so I want more action, but because I am typically the guy who wagers on the big teams only, I know the big market teams very well, I am a big game hunter, and when I have seen both teams play a bunch and cap the game, I hit at a good rate so I invest more money.
I am keeping my plays relatively small as bowl season starts and as it progresses I will begin bumping units up.
Good luck
