3* Teaser 7 points -120
1st Leg: Texas -1
2nd Leg: Over 44.5
Now 3-0 this bowl season on these type of teasers. I play them when three scenarios occur:
1. I am confident I can nail a total if I tease it down giving me the opportunity to play a team essentially at a moneyline.
2. I feel the point spread is very sharp.
3. I feel one team is *almost* a lock to win straight up.
This line looks pretty tight to me. My line is Texas -7, and I can definitely envision a few scenarios where they come out like a house on fire and blow Ohio State up. But something in my gut is telling me to lay this many points is the square play, especially after USC took care of Penn State again.
A few things to consider here if you are a big Texas backer in this game:
DO NOT compare that USC game to this game. There are only 2 teams in the country that I feel are LOADED with talent and speed and that is USC and Florida. Other teams have speed no doubt, but these are the only two teams that have NFL talent AND OVERWHELMING speed at all positions. USC was something like 8-0 vs. the Big Ten. And we know Ohio State is 0-9 vs. the SEC. BUT this game is not vs. USC and it is not vs the SEC. Ohio State is actually 4-1 last 5 games vs. the Big 12. So that is why I feel this line is sharp.
Now here is why none of those trends matter when determining a straigght up winner, and why I have teased Texas down to an essential moneyline play:
Texas has been snubbed worse than any team in history. A simple BCS formula not only determined who won the conference in the Big 12, the BCS formula essentially then gave the Heisman to Sam Bradford since many voters tie being the best player on the best team to the Heisman like the NFLs MVP trophy.
Texas has been bent over every which way. They played a brutal stretch in their schedule where I was CERTAIN they would trip up, but they surprised me going through that stretch, noly to lose on a last second play after they trailed all game, never quit made the comeback, etc. Texas is an INT or a tackle away from being the hands down favorite in the Title Game and this team has the potential for a very controversial split National Title if they can win in convincing fashion and Oklahoma wins vs. Florida. Dont think Texas doesnt know that.
So Texas, disrespected, snubbed and pushed aside has a lot of motivation in this game.
Ohio State meanwhile, is strictly in this game because of Big Ten tie ins and they are over their heads. While this team was a completely different team 2nd half of the year, and they are much better offensively with a healthy Beanie Wells and experienced Tyrelle Pryor, they honestly HAVE NO BUSINESS IN THIS GAME.
So you have a team with no business being here, vs. a team like Texas who could be playing for the title.
Texas showed a lot of resolve and it starts with their leader Colt McCoy. Effiency on offense is the most important stat to me, next to TD/INT ratio and Colt McCoy may have been the most efficient QB in the country. He keeps the chains moving, and keeps his team on the field.
I have underrated Texas's defense this year, calling them average, but I believe them to be an above average group and it starts with getting pressure on the QB and perhaps nobody does it better than the Longhorns.
Texas is a team of WINNERs, Colt McCoy and Shipley represent that, while Ohio State is a team of LOSERS, starting with their super overrated head coach who could be on the hot seat if he loses this game Jim Tressel. It is now safe to say that Jim Tressel is NOT a good big game coach, defeating the likes of Larry Coker who is jobless as his signature win.
Ohio State has so much on their plate and so much pressure to represent the Big Ten well, and it is too much for this team and this young QB vs. this extremely efficient offense and team with too much to play for.
Coaching, QB, motivation, experience, and strength of schedule advantages to the Longhorns here.
Texas' least amount of points socred this year in a game was 28. They should be able to hit that number today.
Meanwhile, Pryor and Wells are too dynamic and too physical to be shut out all game, especially since they are a run first team and they should be able to drive the football and not have too much pressure to drop back and sit in the pocket and put themselves in a situation to make mistakes. Because Ohio State is a run first team, they may look to shorten this game, and keep pounding the rock with Beanie Wells. That scares me to lay 8 or 9 points.
My Line from the Excel sheet, Texas -7.5.
Texas 28
Ohio State 20
ope:
