Nice Homer thread..... I trying to figure out why you reccommend buying a full point down to 3 if your line is Fla -19 and you predict a 41-22 Fla victory. Wouldn't you sell point back, say Fla -7 +150 ???
Im not making any predicitons, but your thread screams of a homer pick.
Another example... You say look at how Fla has blown teams out and the second half and took 2nd half off. OU ran up the score in the first half of every game and went in to time killing mode in the 2nd half. I won tons of cash this year by betting first half OU line and under 2nd half total. The d numbers are skewed b/c teams were scoring aginst back ups in the 2nd half. Stoops took out many D starters in the 2nd half of games due to the high number of injuries.
OU Off line is better than anything Fla had faced all year. Fla might build an early lead, but this type of Offense tends to were out Def players as the game goes on (esp Def lineman and Def Ends).
Im making a token bet on my homer team. Good Luck
I didnt pick the Sooners. Get over it. This is a sports handicapping website, not a fan website. I'm here to make money. Move on SOONER FAN.
In regards to buying the full point, I can't believe I even have to explain this again...
for the 50th time:
My excel sheet line is an unbiased line that has been nailing score predictions almost on the head multiple times this bowl season. But that sheet does not necessarily reflect my thoughts on the game.
I actually personally think the Gators win something like 42-32. And if the Sooners have a last minute backdoor TD, which is very possible with their passing attack, I'd like to be on the #3.
That is why I recommended playing this significantly smaller once the number gets to 4, 5, and even 6.
I NEVER SAID Florida blew teams out 1st half and took the 2nd half off. You are making up whatever you want to read. All I said was how dominant Florida's defense has been this year, and that the majority of the scores when opponents got into double digits on UF (such as 10 or more points) most of those scores were on 2nd unit players. I don't care what offense they faced, if you go the entire season with 7 or 8 games completely shutting opponents down, and your only blemish is a 31 point output by Ole Miss who needed fumbles on Ufs doorstep to reach that total, that is very good defense. A fraud defense will show cracks, for example Ohio State got hung and shredded by Michigan a few years ago in the last game of the season. A fraud defense will always show a crack or two at some point in the season.
This is significantly different than OU giving up 20 points, but their 2nd team defense giving up 28. I am showing UFs defensive dominance not getting into this tired old argument on fan message boards of who pulled their starters first.
Defense's that are overrated will find a couple of opportunities every year, no matter how bad the offenses are, to get shredded up. But it never happened to Florida. Ole Miss was the only game that they gave up 30+, and it was because UF gift wrapped 3 fumbles in the 2nd half on their own 20 yard line on unforced handoffs. So my POINT if you read the post, was to show that this UF defense is very very good and rarely allowed opponents to score double digits - which they will not hold OU to in this game, but it shows it is a very good defense that will be able to slow them. The point was not to get into a full blown analysis of which team gave up more with their 2nd team and whose stats are skewed. That analysis was already done, and as I mentioned it can be referred to which projects a final score of UF 45 OU 35.
If you want to talk about handicapping the game, let's do it. But the only personw ho has called what I wrote a homer pick is the guy with the screen name about the SOONERS. So seriously, get over it, and let's talk football.
Actually let's not. I'm heading out to the stadium for tailgating.
GL
I like the play but the the world is on Florida !!! ??????????????hno::wink:
Don't overdo the public percentages in big games, especially title games.
EVERYONE was on the Colts over the Bears in the Super Bowl and the Colts won and covered for example. Whenever there is one game and such a high profile game like a championship game, EVERYONE is going to have their input and whoever the more public team is in that game is going to seem like a lot more people are on them. If this game was on a Saturday with 50 other games, and it was mixed in with others, you would see 10 people with posts on Florida and 6 on Oklahoma. But because it is the only game on and a title game, you see 50 on FL, and 35 on Oklahoma.
The point of that, is this is the ONLY college game and everyone is going to bet on it. So you are naturally going to see a lot of people on UF and a lot of people on OU if you look hard enough. Most percentages at different sites I have looked at are UF 58% or so. But you have to remember when you have a spread like 5 or less, you usually have a LOT of people on the underdog moneyline for the bigger payout. This game is no exception. When you have public #'s like 58% that is essentially a much lower percentage because the big money payouts would be on OU on the underdog moneyline.
Hard to explain right now without going into a full blown novel about it.
By the way those that are looking at my units at 12* and think that means they should unload their account, 12* is roughly 12% of my account.
If I lose this game, yes it will suck, but if you have $6,000 in your bankroll, you should still have over $5,000 left. DO NOT bet half your account. Money management.
Good luck
If I lose this game, yes it will suck, but if you have $6,000 in your bankroll, you should still have over $5,000 left. DO NOT bet half your account. Money management.
Good luck
Two props:
1* Percy Harvin over 90.5 total yards -135
1* Aaron Hernandez over 29.5 receiving yards -105
This is a big boy game, and I think we see less Rainey and Demps and more Harvin and Hernandez. Gators love using their big TE in big games. And Harvin is healthy and he is unstoppable.
Also like Tebow under 220 yards passing. Gators will run run run run.
1* Percy Harvin over 90.5 total yards -135
1* Aaron Hernandez over 29.5 receiving yards -105
This is a big boy game, and I think we see less Rainey and Demps and more Harvin and Hernandez. Gators love using their big TE in big games. And Harvin is healthy and he is unstoppable.
Also like Tebow under 220 yards passing. Gators will run run run run.
