12* Florida Gators -3 -120
The Line and Motivation: Dating back to Texas' title in 2005, I have been posting my picks on this website. Plays on Texas, Florida, LSU, etc, I have had my share of success betting on title games going 3-0 on posted title games. It's the game of the year, no motivation issues unless you have a situation like 2006 Florida where they were so blatantly disrespected and such controversy about them even belonging in the game vs. the undefeated Buckeyes. But it is usually my strongest pick of the year, as long as I dont feel the line is extremely sharp, because it is purely football matchups and coaching that determines this game - and not motivation. As long as you analyze the game properly, you should come out on top.
Neither team has been disrespected here anywhere close to the level of the 2006 Gators. Bradford won the Heisman, the Oklahoma offense has been hailed as one of the best ever, Florida has been declared the slight favorite, with the traditional, cliched "speed" argument and the SEC talk. So both teams getting their due respect.
Many of you over the years have no doubt noticed that I have the Gators as my avatar. But if you have followed me long enough on this website, you have seen me make a lot of plays against Florida, including multiple times this year I played against the Gators. I am here to win money, not root for my team.
I got this line at Florida -3.5 less than a week ago, it is 4 at some shops now, I would even recommend buying this down to 3 and buying a full point at -130. I could envision a few scenarios where 3 points could play a factor and 3 is a very reasonable spread to cover.
Strength of schedule: Strength of schedule in college football is only a big factor when you have a team that clearly did not play the same caliber of schedule that the other team did. But when you start nit picking, "Oh this team played 1 extra team or 2 extra teams worth a damn" that doesnt really tell me who is going to win this game. That's not really the case when dealing with the SEC and the Big 12. Both teams played solid schedules, and it is tough to compare the apples to oranges here as the Big 12 is on offensive centered conference, where the SEC has been a defensive centered conference.
What you CAN do is see how the top teams that Florida and Oklahoma played were effected by playing Oklahoma and Florida. What that means is if a team typically averages 40 PPG on offense, what did they score when they faced OK or FL? Did they score more or less and how much more or less? On defense, did they give up more or less than the team usually scores and how much more or less. If you do a full analysis like I did earlier in a thread on this website, of the top 4 conference foes, and top 2 non conference foes each team faced, you will see how playing OK and FL effected each team and what kind of an effect FL and OU have on each team they face. For example, FL held their opponents to 45% fewer points than what the top teams they faced usually average and score on offense. Do the same for the defense. You would then average that out to get a projected final score of FL 45 - OK 35. Obviously, this is eerily the same final score of the Texas/OU game. This full analysis is available upon request as I'd have to dig up the thread that had it.
The Big Debate:
Every season, every year has some big debate that everyone fights over. It's the same fight every year, with the same groups of people, always fighting for whatever the issue is this year and they always take the stance that benefits their conference.
This year the debate is are the Big 12 offenses really this good or are their defenses really this bad? To counter this debate, many point to the SEC and say are the defenses really this good or are the offenses really this bad? Answering a question with a question takes away from the issue of this game. Is Oklahoma's offense THIS good? Is there defense any good? First let's quickly address the SEC stuff:
Two things:
1. What happened to where the SEC defenses should be questioned at this point? WHERE did this ignorance come in? WHEN did this happen? The SEC defenses have ALWAYS been good. ALWAYS. ALWAYS. ALWAYS. The conference broke in new QBs this year, but that does not mean that the defenses all of the sudden aren't any good bc new QBs were broken in. Yes the offenses were down as a conference but that doesnt mean the defenses were down. That is illogical and one fact doesnt necessarily lead to the other fact. Florida held their opponents to 45% less points than what they usually score. That is good defense and we know the Gators have the athletes on defense.
2. What do the other offenses breaking in new QBs in the SEC have to do with the Florida Gators? We KNOW their QB is good. We KNOW their offense is good. We KNOW their offense put up great numbers vs. a very good defensive conference. We know the Gators are a good team. People criticized the Gators loss by 1 point to Ole Miss for a very long time, and after Ole Miss destroyed Texas Tech in their bowl game and finished the season very strong, it doesnt seem so bad that Florida lost by 1 point to them, early in the season when they were still figuring out how to use all of their new offensive weapons. FL came a blocked extra point OR a Tebow 4th down conversion from running the table in the SEC.
So with that being said, it is not the Florida Gators, but the Oklahoma Sooners who are the team in question here. And that is the first basis of this play. I'm taking the team that I KNOW is elite over the team that I am not sure if they are elite.
Sooners Offense vs. Gators defense:
Sam Bradford had a remarkable year and he seems like an even nicer kid. But to me, it is truly special when no one else even comes close to doing what you did. To me that is the mark of greatness. It's why people say Babe Ruth was easily the greatest player of all time. The guy hit more homeruns in his era than TEAMS did. It's why Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds dont get respect when everyone is jacking out 60 HRs every 4 years when it hasnt been done in 30 years.
When you look at the Big 12, every single QB seemed to put up similar numbers or was a Heisman candidate. Zac Robinson, Chase Daniel, Sam Bradford, Joe Ganz, Colt McCoy, Graham Harrell. I mean BAYLOR was averaging 28 PPG in this conference. Nebraska was shredding people up. Texas Tech had one of the best seasons in school history. Colt McCoy put together one of the best completion percentages in the history of college football. Sam Bradford shattered records on his way to the Heisman. Chase Daniel was a Heisman candidate last year. Am I the only one who finds this a bit ridiculous? Every QB in the Big 12 is putting together some of the best seasons in school and college football history. I just don't buy it.
When everyone used to criticize the Pac-10 for playing no defense, it was NEVER this bad. They never had every QB in their conference up for the Heisman and every QB in their conference shattering records. USC went into a good offensive conference and completely dominated on defense. That is greatness.
So how good REALLY is this Sooner offense? They are definitely good, but they aren't elite the way they seem.
Part of their effectiveness is their no huddle attack. Catching people off guard. They have a great strategy of putting poor Big 12 defenses on the run and against the ropes. But they will not have that kind of success in this game. First of all, nobody prepares better than Urban Meyer, and if you want to see what the Gators have done during this entire month to prepare for that fast paced attack, read the article on cbs sports. They basically have 2 scout teams. 1 scout team runs the play, and the other scout team is on the sideline they already know their play, ready to sprint on the field and run it ASAP. And the offenses flip flop every play to create a very fast paced attack with the offensive plays and formations already called. That is a FASTER attack than what Oklahoma will be able to do in the game and Florida has been preparing against it. So Florida has the speed and playmakers, and now very prepared and well conditioned on defense to defend the Sooner attack.
Big loss to the Sooners for losing RB DeMarco Murray for this game. They have other backs who are very good, but none of them have the experience, toughness, playmaking ability that DeMarco has to give them the balance they will need in this game. Charlie Strong LOVES blitzing the QB and he will bring more people than the Sooners can block on many occasions if the Sooners cant run the ball effectively and he will rely on his seasoned secondary of playmakers to get it done vs. the pass. Joe Haden is a superb athlete and Janoris Jenkins at the other corner, may go down as one of the greatest corners in Gator history when it is all said and done.
The key thing to understand is OU's stats are not only inflated because they face poor defenses in the Big 12, but because they run a no huddle and get a lot of plays in. So, they arent necessarily so explosive and cant be stopped, the playing field is not even so to speak because they run a very fast paced no huddle, when everyone else huddles up. So, their points per game are naturally going to be a bit more than everyone elses. The Buffalo Bills ran a similar attack, caught teams off guard, until teams had 2 weeks to prepare for the attack in the Super Bowl and we all know BILLS now stands for "Boy I Love Losing Superbowls."
Florida's SPEED and athleticism on defense has SHUT DOWN almost every offense they have faced this year. You have an overrated Sooners offense vs. an UNDERRATED Gators defense in this game. The most points the Gators gave up this season was 31 to Ole Miss. Other than that 21 was the highest. Other than that 10 of the 13 games Florida played they held the opponent to 19 or less points. 7 of those were 10 or less. Many of the scores on Floridas defense were against the 2nd string unit. So Florida's defense has actually DOMINATED this season and they get no press for it. Will UFs defense dominate in this game? No. But they are definitely good enough to slow OU and that is the 2nd difference in this game. Offense for show, defense for dough. If both teams go back and forth like a pinball machine, which very well could happen, who has the defense to separate in this game? Florida.
Gators Offense vs. Sooners Defense:
To me, FL putting up 45 PPG in a defensive conference is more impressive than OK putting up 60 in a poor defensive conference with a no huddle attack.
Tim Tebow may not be the best QB in college football, but he is the best player in college football and I feel when it is all said and done he will go down as a legend. And the only way that happens is to win this title game. And I just dont bet against greatness and the stuff legends are made of when the chips are on the line.
Florida's offense is physical with window dressing. That is to say their line is very physical and their WRs such as Cooper are physical on the edges and they get their speed into open spaces with great blocking. Harvin, Demps and Rainey are 3 gamebreakers on the same field. Don't let the speed and spread fool you. Florida is a running team, and their ability to run the ball will keep OUs defense on the field here and keep their offense off of it. While any of them can take it to the house on any touch, Percy Harvin is the most explosive and dynamic player in college football. This is a guy who literally and physically can NOT be stopped. He has never been stopped, he has never been slowed and it near full health for this game, he will NOT be stopped or slowed. Harvin is ALWAYS going to get his yards and having a Go-To player like that in a big game is such an advantage.
Neither team turns the ball over, but what the Gators proved to me in the SEC Title game is they can beat a team that doesnt turn it over (Bama diddnt turn it over) and they can even do it without Harvin. That is a special sign to me, that they dont NEED turnovers to win big games. They dont NEED their best player to win big games. They find ways to win right now.
Too much speed for Florida on both sides of the ball in this game.
Final Thoughts:
Both teams have good offenses, but the Gator defense and special teams will be huge factors in this game. Finally the biggest factor of them all, Urban Meyer. Urban Meyer is the best coach in the country. I've never been more anxious to listen to a guys post game press conferences. The guy is special. He is extremely sharp. He knows how to win. He knows how to win big games. Meyer is THE BEST BIG GAME COACH IN THE COUNTRY. And with his golden child Tim Tebow, I just dont see them losing this game. Meyer has his exact system in place. Good defense, superman QB, spread installed, extreme speed and playmakers all over the field. This is exactly how he drew it up and he has his pieces in place. Bob Stoops has been blown out of big games against extremely athletic teams and that is what you have here. Florida and USC are the only two teams in the country with the playmakers, speed, defense and coaching. Oklahoma is a very good team, but what Urban Meyer has assembled is too special to lose this game. Remember it has been Florida who has had all of those years straight with top 3 recruiting classes. They have as much, if not, more talent than anybody. Coaching, talent, QB, defense, special teams, regional home field advantage, big game experience - all go to Florida here.
Take the better, proven team, with big game experience, major head coaching advantage, defensive advantage, special teams, and intangible advantages, playing in their backyard.
My Line, Florida -19.
Florida 41
Oklahoma 22
) and I think they destroy OU. Good Luck and lets end the season with a bang!
