BoSox04 NFL Season Long Thread

[BoSox04]

October 17th

Broncos -2.5 (-118), 1*
Audric Estime over 15.5 rushing yards (-110), 1*
Devaughn Vele anytime TD (+400), .5*
Cedric Wilson anytime TD (+600), .5*
Lucas Krull anytime TD (+850), .5*

These are half unit bets on the anytime TD scorers. In a game like this where there are multiple key players injured on offense and it’s a short week, I like looking down the odds board for some value. No Taysom Hill, Olave and Shaheed to name a few, should open up opportunities for others. Most places have Denver -3, but DK has -2.5 and everyone should have access to that sportsbook. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 3-2/YTD: 44-41, +3.22

Big garbage TD from Wilson. Looked like I was going to turn a small profit and I ended up profiting four units. I thought my logic was sound, glad it paid off. Easy winner with Estime as well. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come this weekend.

I lean the Patriots in the London game. I think Pederson would have been fired if the game against Chicago had been played in North America. He will absolutely be fired if they lose this game and they might let him go anyway even if they win. That team is just lifeless. I know they don’t have much on defense other then their d-line. But they have talent at every skill position on offense and Lawrence isn’t bad. Seeing the Jags as six point favorites against anyone seems wrong. I’m going to monitor this line, but right now it’s the Patriots or nothing for me.

 

[BoSox04]

October 20th

Drake Maye over 201.5 passing yards (-110), 1*
Seahawks +3 (-110), 1*
Dolphins +3 (-115), 1*
Vikings -1 (-112), 1*
49ers -2 (-105), 1*
Steelers +2 (-110), 1*

If the Patriots get to +7, I have to bet it. I think this has gotten a little crazy with the Jags support. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Patriots +7 (-110), 1*
Drake Maye over 225.5 (+185), 1*
Maye over 255.5 (+450), .5*

This is the number at multiple books. I’m willing to be wrong, it just feels right to have 7 in my pocket against Jacksonville. I’m going to play some alt overs on Maye’s passing yards. I played these last week, but didn’t post them. I wanted to see if I was on the right track. It worked out last week and I’m going back to them this week.

 

[indiana]

B. Sox.....BOL with all your action today buddy.......indy

 

[BoSox04]

Packers -3 (-110), 1*

 

[indiana]

B. Sox.....on your added play with you......indy

 

[BoSox04]

October 21st

Cardinals +2 (-110), 1*

 

[BoSox04]

B. Sox.....on your added play with you......indy

Best of luck today Indy.

 

[BoSox04]

Good start to the day. Ended up profiting four units on the Patriots game by hitting all of Maye’s alt overs. I lean under in the Packers game. I already have four bets in that window, which is enough for me. Let’s keep it going.

 

[BoSox04]

Adams anytime TD (+150), 1*
Adams over 57.5 receiving yards (-110), 1*
Six Point Teaser: Steelers +8.5 & Cardinals +7.5 (-115), 1*

As we have seen today, teams seem to care as much about specific guys scoring as they do about running successful plays. The Eagles took care of Saquon. The Browns took care of Chubb. Cooper scored a TD for Buffalo. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 49ers have something drawn up for Piersall. I think Rodgers will do his best to make Davante look good throughout the game and get him a TD. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Steelers +3 (-115), 1*
Jaylen Warren anytime TD (+400), .5*
Jets/Steelers under 40 (-110), 1*

Maybe I’m the only one who likes Pittsburgh tonight. I thought this game should be a pick ‘em, which is why I bet +2 earlier in the week. Now DK has +3, I have to bet that. The Jets have played three straight games against Denver, Minnesota and Buffalo where Rodgers had a chance to win it for them and didn’t get it done. Now he goes to Pitt and is facing the best defense he has seen all year. Obviously, the offense has more talent with the addition of Davante. I’m sure Rodgers will get him the ball early and often. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he forces it to him once or twice when he shouldn’t and the Steelers come away with a turnover. Rodgers doesn’t move as well as he used to, which isn’t ideal when you have Watt and the Steelers pass rush coming after you with a mediocre Jets offensive line. I wouldn’t be stunned if the Jets win. But this line should not be 3 with what we have seen so far. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 6-9/YTD: 50-50, +2.1

October 21st

Cardinals +2 (-110), 1*
Cardinals/Steelers Six Point Teaser (-115), 1*

Ravens Team Total over 27.5 (-110), 1*
Godwin over 74.5 (-110), 1*
Michael Wilson over 31.5 (-110), 1*

I have the Cardinals bets left over from yesterday. I would bet the Cardinals money line if you haven’t bet them yet. Or you can take the one point. I really thought Davante was going to have a strong game yesterday. Had I stayed away from him, I would have turned a profit. Although if things go well today, it will still be a profitable week 7. Best of luck.

 

[BoSox04]

J.K. Dobbins under 82.5 rushing yards (-110), 1*

This number has gotten a little crazy. I wasn’t planning to bet this, but this number should not be in the 80’s in my opinion. This number should be like 72.5, not 82.5. Kind of like the Steelers +3 last night, I can’t pass this up.

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 4-2/YTD: 54-52, +3.9

 

[BoSox04]

October 24th

Rams +3 (-115), 1*

GL

 

[BoSox04]

Cooper Kupp over 67.5 receiving yards (-115), 1*
Kupp anytime TD (+135), 1*

I lean over in the game. I feel more confident in my Rams bet and the Kupp props, so I will stick with those three. I think the Rams will do their best to showcase Kupp tonight if they are trying to move him. Also, Nacua could be on a snap count which would benefit Kupp in terms of target share. Even if they don’t want to trade Kupp, Stafford is going to get him the ball for obvious reasons. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 2-1/YTD: 56-53, +5.1

I was wrong about which of the Rams top two receivers was going to be the more heavily featured. More importantly, I was right about the game and the Kupp TD. And if you took the over, that was a winner too. I feel like I’m in a good groove right now in the NFL. Hope I can keep it going this weekend.

 

[BoSox04]

October 27th

Patriots +7 (-110), 1*

I am going to take a good number against the Jets. Every week they change something or say they have addressed the problem. And then they lose. They should win this game and win convincingly if they were the team we thought at the beginning of the season. They just haven’t been that team. I might bet the over in this game tomorrow. The Patriots defense has been bad the last few weeks and their offense is much more capable with Maye.

 

[BoSox04]

Patriots/Jets over 41 (-110), 1*
Buccaneers +1.5 (-110), 1*
Six Point Teaser: Buccaneers +7.5 & Chiefs -2.5 (-115), 1*

I was a little late to the party here. I wanted to bet them 2.5 and tease them to 8.5, but the line just dropped to 1.5 and 2. I know Tampa is short handed at receiver, but they can still move the ball on Atlanta. Divisional games are important and they often don’t go as expected. I like Tampa to bounce back this week or at least keep it within 7 for the teaser. I explained partially why I like the Pats over today. Even if there is a little wind, the Jets should be able to find success in the ground game like teams have against New England the last few weeks. I am going to look at some props for the entire day. See if there’s anything I want to bet. GL