I know what you mean.
But still another profitable week nonetheless, which is always a good thing :toast:
(That's me trying to be positive)
But, seriously.
What was especially frustrating about the Jets SU loss, (aside from the fact that it cost the sweep), was that I began my writeup with "Expecting Buffalo’s defense to be eaten alive by the run game of the Jets here." When it was all said and done, Jets ended up setting a Franchise Record for rush yards as Thomas Jones picked up 210 yards against them. Leon Washington also rushed for another 100 yards. As a team, they surpassed 300 yards on the ground, and STILL lost the game. You hate to lose games like this.
hno: Chalk this one up to the rookie QB and the rookie head coach with some questionable playcalling. A tough loss, and the ball refuses to bounce my way, but another profitable week anyway 
When lady luck decides to toss me a bone to go along with my capping, I have a feeling the Bookies will scatter and hide :toast:
A fun read here, enjoy
10/19/2009
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
ODDSMAKERS FINALLY GET SOME HELP
FROM UGLY NFL UNDERDOGS
Oddsmakers have developed a fear of big ugly underdogs seemingly every season of late. Occasionally, it’s well founded and sportsbooks really take a bath. Usually, things work themselves out and Vegas and Reno make a profit at the expense of the gambling public.
Heading into this past Sunday, the fear was palpable. Everyone remembers earlier this decade when pro football favorites just went on covering spreads the whole season. The squares (the wagering public) always bets favorites. No matter how high the lines got, they just kept betting them…and cashing tickets!
A few things lined up that season to create a perfect storm:
*There were a lot of bad teams who just didn’t bring any fire to their games.
*There were a lot of good teams who kept winning by double digits.
*The spreads were lower back then, as oddsmakers had gotten a little arrogant about their knowledge of the NFL. They believed in parity, and kept assuming game margins would go back down to where they had been. The public always loses, right?
*As the season played itself out, oddsmakers kept focusing on how square the public was rather than what was happening on the field. Spreads stayed too low, and sportsbooks had a rare losing year.
Corporations don’t like losing money, so changes were made. The pointspreads finally did get higher in the subsequent seasons. And, there was a move back toward the direction of parity at least even if there wasn’t true parity. There was also a growing tendency for top teams to “get the game over with” when they had a lead rather than run up the score. That’s always good news for dog players because you have a chance at the back door late in a game with a high spread.
Squares went back to losing. Sportsbooks went back to winning. Everything was where it should be.
2009 had been a challenge in the NFL because things had reverted back away from parity. It’s not like there were just a few bad teams who have trouble being competitive. Before this past weekend, ALL of the following might have qualified as “worst team in the league” in a different season: St. Louis, Detroit, Oakland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland. Oddsmakers kept dropping these teams in their Power Ratings, and they just can’t get them low enough.
Finally…Sunday…some decent performances:
*Oakland (+14) stunned Philadelphia 13-9…in game that more reflected horrible preparation from Philadelphia than anything else. Still, the squares were lined up on the playoff bound Eagles (most likely), so the sportsbooks rejoiced.
*Kansas City (+6) upset Washington 14-6…in a game that marks the end of the Jim Zorn era in DC. Even if they haven’t fired him by the time you read this, he’s lost the players. They’re not showing up against a soft schedule. They’ve played nothing but winless teams, yet put both Detroit and Kansas City in the win column.
*St. Louis (+10) took Jacksonville to overtime in a 23-20 loss. Sportsbooks were a bit fortunate here, as the Rams were outgained 492-262. They were basically as bad as ever, but overachieved their stats and hung within the numbers.
*Cleveland (+14) covered in a 27-14 loss to Pittsburgh. The Browns were also very lucky. Pittsburgh won yardage 543-197! Sportsbooks were going to need a few breaks to slow down their slide of losses with the bad teams. Fate smiled on them in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.
Tampa Bay failed to cover. Detroit had a bye. So, the “ugly six” I listed earlier ended up going 4-1-1 against the spread this week. That sound you heard before the start of the Sunday Night game on NBC was a great big sigh from oddsmakers in Nevada.
Oddsmakers know this may be a temporary respite though:
*You can’t count on teams covering spreads when they get crushed in total yardage. You can’t count on overconfident visitors taking all of their projected blowouts too lightly. It’s not like the bad teams really lifted their level of play this past week. Two caught breaks. One caught a flat opponent. One caught a team that had given up on their coach. When facing good teams who care, the bad teams will still be blowout fodder.
*Many of the bad teams have little hope of getting better this season. They don’t have any good quarterback options. All the teams I listed either have brand new head coaches, or relatively new head coaches. It’s hard to turn a bad team around quickly (particularly when you don’t have a good quarterback!). Cleveland had a quarterback war and both have been awful. Oakland is starting what may be the worst first string QB in the modern era. The backups are worse. Oddsmakers used to have a good read of what “bad” meant. The term is being redefined right before our eyes.
*Sharps aren’t betting the big ugly dogs much any more because they can see the writing on the wall. They took their lumps in past years too…and have accepted that you can’t just print money by betting against the public in the NFL right now. You only have to watch so many of these games on the big screen TV’s to know that a bet on the Raiders or the Rams is a dangerous investment, regardless of the line. Sportsbooks are getting too one-sided as a result. The sharps aren’t there to share in the suffering.
*New teams are starting to sink to the bottom too! Tennessee has been routed the past few games, and may have thrown in the towel on their season. I already talked about Washington. Jacksonville comes and goes as it pleases. There are some other dead dogs besides the worst six!
This is why sales of Pepto-Bismol are going through the roof out here. Oddsmakers are between a rock and a hard place in the NFL. If they don’t make any changes, they run the risk of another losing season in the NFL should the superior teams keep winning big. If they do make changes, they run the risk of over-reaching and bringing sharps back into play with authority. What if all the lines shot up to +18 or +21? That may reflect what’s happened so far and the total yardage differentials in some of these games. Squares will finally back off at those levels, sharps will come in…and sportsbooks are just one-sided in the other direction. If there’s a boomerang back to parity…that’s a disaster too.
What I expect we’ll continue to see is that the lines keep “edging” higher as oddsmakers try to find a range that will keep the public betting, but bring sharps in to help balance the books more. There’s enough time left in the season to show a good profit if an equilibrium is reached, or if top teams become satisfied with 10-14 point wins against higher spreads. Sportsbooks really need more of those kinds of covers. Nobody’s expecting Jamarcus Russell to turn into Daryl Lamonica.
Oddsmakers have the following in their favor in terms of a return to parity:
*New coaches usually do inspire improvement. It can take awhile during tough transition periods if the players don’t respond at first. They either respond or get traded. I think some of these bad teams will get better. They only have to get 2-3 points better in the Power Ratings to start covering spreads again.
*Playoff contenders know they have to pace themselves for a long season. There’s just no reason to go all out every week in October and November when championships are won much later.
*Contenders also know they have to guard against injury. Donovan McNabb has already missed some time for Philadelphia. Eli Manning is hobbled for New York. That will encourage teams to take their starters out when a game has been decided straight up, allowing for back door covers from big dogs.
*Bad weather games can be an equalizer. We’re coming up on November, which could boost the chances of underdogs to stay close in the Northeast and Midwest. Well, not in New England where the Patriots love playing in the snow! In some other spots for sure.
Oddsmakers also have the nature of squares in their favor! When squares win, they just keep right on betting until they lose it back. Patience will be a virtue for Nevada. If they can just hang in there long enough, any money lost to favorite bettors in the early stages of the season will make its way back here eventually.
10/19/2009
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
ODDSMAKERS FINALLY GET SOME HELP
FROM UGLY NFL UNDERDOGS
Oddsmakers have developed a fear of big ugly underdogs seemingly every season of late. Occasionally, it’s well founded and sportsbooks really take a bath. Usually, things work themselves out and Vegas and Reno make a profit at the expense of the gambling public.
Heading into this past Sunday, the fear was palpable. Everyone remembers earlier this decade when pro football favorites just went on covering spreads the whole season. The squares (the wagering public) always bets favorites. No matter how high the lines got, they just kept betting them…and cashing tickets!
A few things lined up that season to create a perfect storm:
*There were a lot of bad teams who just didn’t bring any fire to their games.
*There were a lot of good teams who kept winning by double digits.
*The spreads were lower back then, as oddsmakers had gotten a little arrogant about their knowledge of the NFL. They believed in parity, and kept assuming game margins would go back down to where they had been. The public always loses, right?
*As the season played itself out, oddsmakers kept focusing on how square the public was rather than what was happening on the field. Spreads stayed too low, and sportsbooks had a rare losing year.
Corporations don’t like losing money, so changes were made. The pointspreads finally did get higher in the subsequent seasons. And, there was a move back toward the direction of parity at least even if there wasn’t true parity. There was also a growing tendency for top teams to “get the game over with” when they had a lead rather than run up the score. That’s always good news for dog players because you have a chance at the back door late in a game with a high spread.
Squares went back to losing. Sportsbooks went back to winning. Everything was where it should be.
2009 had been a challenge in the NFL because things had reverted back away from parity. It’s not like there were just a few bad teams who have trouble being competitive. Before this past weekend, ALL of the following might have qualified as “worst team in the league” in a different season: St. Louis, Detroit, Oakland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland. Oddsmakers kept dropping these teams in their Power Ratings, and they just can’t get them low enough.
Finally…Sunday…some decent performances:
*Oakland (+14) stunned Philadelphia 13-9…in game that more reflected horrible preparation from Philadelphia than anything else. Still, the squares were lined up on the playoff bound Eagles (most likely), so the sportsbooks rejoiced.
*Kansas City (+6) upset Washington 14-6…in a game that marks the end of the Jim Zorn era in DC. Even if they haven’t fired him by the time you read this, he’s lost the players. They’re not showing up against a soft schedule. They’ve played nothing but winless teams, yet put both Detroit and Kansas City in the win column.
*St. Louis (+10) took Jacksonville to overtime in a 23-20 loss. Sportsbooks were a bit fortunate here, as the Rams were outgained 492-262. They were basically as bad as ever, but overachieved their stats and hung within the numbers.
*Cleveland (+14) covered in a 27-14 loss to Pittsburgh. The Browns were also very lucky. Pittsburgh won yardage 543-197! Sportsbooks were going to need a few breaks to slow down their slide of losses with the bad teams. Fate smiled on them in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.
Tampa Bay failed to cover. Detroit had a bye. So, the “ugly six” I listed earlier ended up going 4-1-1 against the spread this week. That sound you heard before the start of the Sunday Night game on NBC was a great big sigh from oddsmakers in Nevada.
Oddsmakers know this may be a temporary respite though:
*You can’t count on teams covering spreads when they get crushed in total yardage. You can’t count on overconfident visitors taking all of their projected blowouts too lightly. It’s not like the bad teams really lifted their level of play this past week. Two caught breaks. One caught a flat opponent. One caught a team that had given up on their coach. When facing good teams who care, the bad teams will still be blowout fodder.
*Many of the bad teams have little hope of getting better this season. They don’t have any good quarterback options. All the teams I listed either have brand new head coaches, or relatively new head coaches. It’s hard to turn a bad team around quickly (particularly when you don’t have a good quarterback!). Cleveland had a quarterback war and both have been awful. Oakland is starting what may be the worst first string QB in the modern era. The backups are worse. Oddsmakers used to have a good read of what “bad” meant. The term is being redefined right before our eyes.
*Sharps aren’t betting the big ugly dogs much any more because they can see the writing on the wall. They took their lumps in past years too…and have accepted that you can’t just print money by betting against the public in the NFL right now. You only have to watch so many of these games on the big screen TV’s to know that a bet on the Raiders or the Rams is a dangerous investment, regardless of the line. Sportsbooks are getting too one-sided as a result. The sharps aren’t there to share in the suffering.
*New teams are starting to sink to the bottom too! Tennessee has been routed the past few games, and may have thrown in the towel on their season. I already talked about Washington. Jacksonville comes and goes as it pleases. There are some other dead dogs besides the worst six!
This is why sales of Pepto-Bismol are going through the roof out here. Oddsmakers are between a rock and a hard place in the NFL. If they don’t make any changes, they run the risk of another losing season in the NFL should the superior teams keep winning big. If they do make changes, they run the risk of over-reaching and bringing sharps back into play with authority. What if all the lines shot up to +18 or +21? That may reflect what’s happened so far and the total yardage differentials in some of these games. Squares will finally back off at those levels, sharps will come in…and sportsbooks are just one-sided in the other direction. If there’s a boomerang back to parity…that’s a disaster too.
What I expect we’ll continue to see is that the lines keep “edging” higher as oddsmakers try to find a range that will keep the public betting, but bring sharps in to help balance the books more. There’s enough time left in the season to show a good profit if an equilibrium is reached, or if top teams become satisfied with 10-14 point wins against higher spreads. Sportsbooks really need more of those kinds of covers. Nobody’s expecting Jamarcus Russell to turn into Daryl Lamonica.
Oddsmakers have the following in their favor in terms of a return to parity:
*New coaches usually do inspire improvement. It can take awhile during tough transition periods if the players don’t respond at first. They either respond or get traded. I think some of these bad teams will get better. They only have to get 2-3 points better in the Power Ratings to start covering spreads again.
*Playoff contenders know they have to pace themselves for a long season. There’s just no reason to go all out every week in October and November when championships are won much later.
*Contenders also know they have to guard against injury. Donovan McNabb has already missed some time for Philadelphia. Eli Manning is hobbled for New York. That will encourage teams to take their starters out when a game has been decided straight up, allowing for back door covers from big dogs.
*Bad weather games can be an equalizer. We’re coming up on November, which could boost the chances of underdogs to stay close in the Northeast and Midwest. Well, not in New England where the Patriots love playing in the snow! In some other spots for sure.
Oddsmakers also have the nature of squares in their favor! When squares win, they just keep right on betting until they lose it back. Patience will be a virtue for Nevada. If they can just hang in there long enough, any money lost to favorite bettors in the early stages of the season will make its way back here eventually.
Through 6 weeks of play, the overall trends come close to the 50/50 mark, which is to be expected in many more seasons than not. Double digit favorites, which began the season hot, cooled off last week. Would be interesting, if not profitable, to keep an eye on how DD dogs fair ATS the rest of the season, during a year where it seams there is no parity in the NFL. Never know where opportunities may present themselves
Away Teams 44-45-1
Home Teams 45-44-1
Favorites 47-42-1
Dogs 42-47-1
Away Favorites 15-13-0
Away Dogs 29-32-1
Home Favorites 32-29-1
Home Dogs 13-15-0
Away Teams 44-45-1
Home Teams 45-44-1
Favorites 47-42-1
Dogs 42-47-1
Away Favorites 15-13-0
Away Dogs 29-32-1
Home Favorites 32-29-1
Home Dogs 13-15-0
I mentioned that this would be a unique card, and it will be.
After capping all the games I have alot of teams winning SU, but not enough edge to bet with the number, so I decided to get creative in order to take full advantage. I did this once before a few years back and it payed off huge for me. Hope to have a similar performance this week, and needless to say I like my chances.
Here we go...
There will be 29 total teaser bets, (1 big one), and the rest are 2 team teasers which include every possible combination of the teams I have winning straight up. Will use 'units' this week to keep track of plays. Let's get the first one out of the way. Please note: ties PUSH, they don't lose.
3team/10pt-Teaser
(*5* units) Indianapolis Colts -3, Green Bay Packers +1, New England Patriots -4 (-110)
The remaining 28 bets involve the Colts, Packers, Giants, Eagles, Saints, Chargers, Panthers, and Steelers in every possible 2 team combination. Each team is parlayed with each of the other 7 teams, and a quick look at the Math, shows that each upset would wipeout 25% of the total BETS. In order to avoid walking away from a 5-3 day down money, I assigned different money amounts to each team depending on relative confidence. So if the Giants happen to lose for instance, 25% of the total BETS will lose, but a much smaller percentage of the total MONEY will be lost. In this particular case roughly 10%. The Packers and Colts combined, will account for just under 50 % of the total MONEY, while the Giants, Panthers, Saints, Eagles and Chargers will each account for nearly 10% of the total MONEY, and the Steelers will account for roughly 5% of the total MONEY.
2team/7pt-Teaser
(*.55* units) Colts -6.5, Packers -1 (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Panthers PK (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Saints PK (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Giants PK (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Eagles PK (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Chargers +1 (-130)
(*.1* units) Colts -6.5, Steelers +1 (-130)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Panthers -1 (-110)
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Saints -1 (-110)
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Giants -1 (-110)
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Eagles -1 (-110)
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.09* units) Packers -2, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Saints -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Giants -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Eagles -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
C Saints -1, Giants -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Saints -1, Eagles -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Saints -1, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Saints -1, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.05* units) Giants -1, Eagles -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Giants -1, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Giants -1, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.05* units) Eagles -1, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Eagles -1, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.05* units) Chargers +1, Steelers +1 (-110)
Will do my best to be back later tonight and do writeups, and talk a little more about strategy, but in a rush now so have to head out (<)<
Wish me luck people!
After capping all the games I have alot of teams winning SU, but not enough edge to bet with the number, so I decided to get creative in order to take full advantage. I did this once before a few years back and it payed off huge for me. Hope to have a similar performance this week, and needless to say I like my chances.
Here we go...
There will be 29 total teaser bets, (1 big one), and the rest are 2 team teasers which include every possible combination of the teams I have winning straight up. Will use 'units' this week to keep track of plays. Let's get the first one out of the way. Please note: ties PUSH, they don't lose.
3team/10pt-Teaser
(*5* units) Indianapolis Colts -3, Green Bay Packers +1, New England Patriots -4 (-110)
The remaining 28 bets involve the Colts, Packers, Giants, Eagles, Saints, Chargers, Panthers, and Steelers in every possible 2 team combination. Each team is parlayed with each of the other 7 teams, and a quick look at the Math, shows that each upset would wipeout 25% of the total BETS. In order to avoid walking away from a 5-3 day down money, I assigned different money amounts to each team depending on relative confidence. So if the Giants happen to lose for instance, 25% of the total BETS will lose, but a much smaller percentage of the total MONEY will be lost. In this particular case roughly 10%. The Packers and Colts combined, will account for just under 50 % of the total MONEY, while the Giants, Panthers, Saints, Eagles and Chargers will each account for nearly 10% of the total MONEY, and the Steelers will account for roughly 5% of the total MONEY.
2team/7pt-Teaser
(*.55* units) Colts -6.5, Packers -1 (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Panthers PK (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Saints PK (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Giants PK (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Eagles PK (-130)
(*.2* units) Colts -6.5, Chargers +1 (-130)
(*.1* units) Colts -6.5, Steelers +1 (-130)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Panthers -1 (-110)
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Saints -1 (-110)
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Giants -1 (-110)
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Eagles -1 (-110)
(*.13* units) Packers -2, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.09* units) Packers -2, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Saints -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Giants -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Eagles -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Panthers -1, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
C Saints -1, Giants -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Saints -1, Eagles -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Saints -1, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Saints -1, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.05* units) Giants -1, Eagles -1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Giants -1, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Giants -1, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.05* units) Eagles -1, Chargers +1 (-110)
(*.05* units) Eagles -1, Steelers +1 (-110)
2team/6pt-Teaser
(*.05* units) Chargers +1, Steelers +1 (-110)
Will do my best to be back later tonight and do writeups, and talk a little more about strategy, but in a rush now so have to head out (<)<
Wish me luck people!
