*$1,000* San Fransisco 49ers (-3) over Chicago Bears (-115)
Bears traveling from East to West coast on a very short week, to play against a San Fran team that is playing b2b home games with no travel. Chicago dealing with all sorts of controversy, all stemming from poor play on the field. Defensively they are a total mess without Urlacher to lead them, coaching staff is also on the hot seat. Offensively their O-line can't run block or pass protect, their QB is turnover prone, and they have no real threat at receiver, besides a TE. They are a team in total disarray at the moment, and the final scores in their recent games illustrate that point all too painfully for Bears fans. Conversely, the 49ers have developed a balanced attack, with Frank Gore leading the running game, the former #1 pick playing to salvage a career, and Vernon Davis emerging as a viable threat in the passing game to complement the rest of these young and talented receivers. Defensively, we have the #5 ranked rush D in San Fran against a Bears offense that already struggles mightily to move the ball on the ground. This has been an issue for the Bears, as their play calling has been predictable and allowed teams to key in on Cutler's tendency to turn the ball over. 49ers all around sport the better team in this matchup, and playing them at home, is a wise move. Bears are 1-3 on the road this season, with their lone win against a Seattle team who was missing their starting QB. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their L6 road games, and 0-5 ATS as a road dog. 49ers on the other hand, are 8-3-2 in their L13 overall, and bounce back well in games after losses, as is evidenced by their 6-2-1 ATS record following a SU loss. Needless to say, I like the home team here to win by more than a field goal.
GL
Bears traveling from East to West coast on a very short week, to play against a San Fran team that is playing b2b home games with no travel. Chicago dealing with all sorts of controversy, all stemming from poor play on the field. Defensively they are a total mess without Urlacher to lead them, coaching staff is also on the hot seat. Offensively their O-line can't run block or pass protect, their QB is turnover prone, and they have no real threat at receiver, besides a TE. They are a team in total disarray at the moment, and the final scores in their recent games illustrate that point all too painfully for Bears fans. Conversely, the 49ers have developed a balanced attack, with Frank Gore leading the running game, the former #1 pick playing to salvage a career, and Vernon Davis emerging as a viable threat in the passing game to complement the rest of these young and talented receivers. Defensively, we have the #5 ranked rush D in San Fran against a Bears offense that already struggles mightily to move the ball on the ground. This has been an issue for the Bears, as their play calling has been predictable and allowed teams to key in on Cutler's tendency to turn the ball over. 49ers all around sport the better team in this matchup, and playing them at home, is a wise move. Bears are 1-3 on the road this season, with their lone win against a Seattle team who was missing their starting QB. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their L6 road games, and 0-5 ATS as a road dog. 49ers on the other hand, are 8-3-2 in their L13 overall, and bounce back well in games after losses, as is evidenced by their 6-2-1 ATS record following a SU loss. Needless to say, I like the home team here to win by more than a field goal.
GL
Teams and their respective stadiums to keep an eye on this week for weather updates, are Green Bay, where it might colder than people expect and windier for that matter, and the New York Jets, who are expecting a forecast of rain over the weekend. Keep on eye on these 2 stadiums, for weather updates.
Soon enough Percocet, I'm excited for the NBA too @)
But this is heart of the NFL season, and with my schedule being what it is, I don't want to compromise my success in either sport by overextending my time.
Takes me 2-3 hours a day to cap NBA. If I were to add that with the hours I spend on the NFL, and with my other obligations in life, I would need to sacrifice something somewhere, and that's something I can't do at the moment.
With that being said, I expect I will begin to bet the NBA seriously, in about 2-3 weeks as my schedule should free up a bit.
Like I said, soon enough
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*$3,000* Miami Dolphins/Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 44
Two bad defenses here. Tampa’s “D” is giving up close to 30 points per game on average, and they are surrendering nearly 400 yards of total offense to opponents. I like Miami and their wild cat to “run wild” all over this pathetic Tampa defense. Bucs have given up 28 pts or more in 6 of their 8 games this season. I expect we get the majority of the points we need from the Miami “O” in this one and the rest I leave to the Miami “D” to surrender. Dolphins have given up 20 points or more in 6 of their 8 games this season, and their secondary is 5th worst in the NFL. Freeman was impressive for the Bucs last week and I like Tampa to put up a minimum of 17-20 points out here, which should be enough for us to cash this play. Miami is 4-1 to the Over in their L5 and Tampa is 3-2 to the Over in L5 and are most recently coming off a game which saw 66 total points scored. The Over is also 11-4 in Tampa’s L15 road games and 4-0 in Miami’s L4 home games. I see 31-21 Miami here and the Over cashing.
*$3,000* Dallas Cowboys (–3) over Green Bay Packers (-110)
Some might say this is a letdown spot for the Cowboys after their big win against the Eagles. I say this is a team rolling and clicking on all cylinders. Cowboys have quietly put together an impressive stretch of games and stand at the top of the competitive NFC East division, with a 6-2 record. Their offense is in rhythm, and defensively they are getting after the quarterback and stopping the run. This team has looked better and better each week that they have played and are currently on a 4 game win streak. Green Bay on the other hand, is coming off its worst loss of the season, as they surrendered a victory to what was, a winless Bucs team. Tampa bay came into that game having only 11 sacks in their first 7 games of the season, and Green Bay let them walk away with 6 sacks in 1 game. Their offensive line is a disaster in progress and rank dead last in NFL with 37 total sacks allowed on the season. I expect Demarcus Ware and the rest of the Cowboys D-line to have a big day against this offensive line. I think we see a demoralized Green Bay team surrender b2b victories, with the difference being that this time around, they do it against a much better team in the Dallas Cowboys. Going with the “hot hand” in a matchup that features two teams heading in opposite directions. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in L8 for the series.
*$3,000* Tennessee Titans (–6.5) over Buffalo Bills (-110)
I like the Titans to keep it rolling here. After opening the season 0-6 they have put together b2b wins and appear to have found new life on offense with quarterback Vince Young at the helm. Young’s running ability has opened up lanes for Chris Johnson and we all know how explosive he can be out of the backfield for Tennessee. Also the former Texas quarterback is playing with a chip on his shoulder, which should be music to the ears of Titans backers here. Titans are a hungry team, despite their record. Defensively they finally have Finnegan back in the secondary, and he his already making his presence felt out there. Bottom line, this team is well coached and playing with something to prove out there. Bills on the other hand, have been decimated by injury all season. They have already placed 11 players on IR for the season and head coach Dick Jauron had to spend the Bye week giving players days off to avoid having to add even more players to that list. A quick look at a Bills injury report actually makes you feel sorry for them. But you know what they say, “One man’s garbage is another man’s treasure”. Titans are 7-2 ATS in their L9 following a rushing performance of 150 yards or more in their previous game. Backing the Titans here, who are playing with a renewed sense of confidence.
*$3,000* Philadelphia Eagles (+1) over Dallas Cowboys (-110)
Chargers in the proverbial let down spot after their last second win against the G-men last week. This time around though, they will face off against a much better defense who loves to get after the quarterback and ranks 2nd in NFL in total sacks. Bad news for a Chargers team has no run game and relies so heavily on the pass. Chargers rank dead last in NFL in rushing, as they are averaging less than 70 yds per game. Having Philip Rivers drop back 30 times in this one, will be a recipe for disaster against this defense. Chargers are not the team they used to be, but the public still thinks they are and that’s why we get the Eagles as dogs here. Like the Eagles to bounce back after their loss to Dallas, as they are 5-0 ATS following a SU loss. Expect them to take advantage of a very vulnerable Chargers “D” in this one. Philly’s travel cross country is a non issue, as Chargers had to make the same trip from New York. Wrong team favored here, and my money will be with the live dog. Eagles are 14-6 ATS in their L20 road games, and Chargers are 0-6 ATS when favored by 3 points or less at home.
*$3,000* Denver Broncos (–3) over Washington Redskins (-110)
Absolutely no respect from oddsmakers here. Almost every capper I’ve talked to is on Redskins in this one, but that doesn’t sway me. Many will make reference to Denver’s travel cross country to make a case for the Redskins, but this one still boils down to a terrible offense in Washington facing off against a very good defense in Denver. Broncos, who are coming off b2b losses to Ravens and Steelers, will be ready for this game and should relish in the opportunity of facing off against one of the worst offenses this league has to offer. Redskins managing a porous 14 pts per game, and we all saw what a top caliber “D” can do to their offense when the Eagles played them 2 weeks back in Philly. Much is being made of Washington’s defense, but I’m not reading too much into it. Redskins have given up 100 yds or more on the ground to opponents in 7 of their 8 contests this year. This is another key to the game. In Denver’s wins this year, their running game has played a huge role, as it’s moved the chains and helped Orton by putting him in manageable situations. This will be the gameplan once again here, and there is no reason to expect Washington’s 25th ranked Rush-“D” to shut down Denver’s running attack, which we know is more than capable of taking advantage of suspect run defenses. Going with the much better team here with a major coaching advantage, and really an advantage in nearly all phases of the game. Broncos are desperate for the win after seeing the Chargers get themselves back within the division race, and I like them to bounce back after their loss to a very good Steelers team. Broncos are 4-1 ATS following a loss by double digits at home.
*$2,500* Carolina Panthers (+1.5) over Atlanta Falcons (-110)
2nd year QB Matt Ryan is going through what is commonly referred to as the “sophomore slump”. He has been held to less than 200 passing yards on 4 occasions this year, and I think facing off against the NFL’s 6th ranked secondary in Carolina, makes it 5 for him. I also think Carolina’s Rush “D” slows down Turner here, who historically has not played well against the Panthers in the past. It helps that Carolina’s rush “D” has given up less than 100 yds on the ground to their opponents in 4 of their L5 games heading into this matchup and appear to be turning the corner after a rough start. Panthers are 4-1 ATS after holding an opponent to less than 90 rush yds in their previous game, something they did last week against Washington. This highly touted defense appears to finally be living up to some of their hype. Atlanta on other hand, has picked up where it left off last year, with night and day play on the road vs at home. They are 4-1 SU at home, but just 1-3 on the season when playing on the road. Their porous Run Defense is primarily responsible for their road struggles. Falcons are surrendering an average of 130+ yards/per game to opposing RBs when playing on the road. This does not bode well for them in this matchup, considering how well the run game of the Panthers is playing. Carolina’s rush attack is finally clicking on all cylinders as they are averaging a mind blowing 208 Rushyds/per game in their L4 contests heading into this game. Expect the tandem of Williams and Stuart to have a monster game in this one. If Carolina has taught us anything over the last few weeks it’s this: When Delhomme does not turn over the ball, the Panthers are not THAT different of a team, than the one that went 13-3 last season and went on to win their division. Delhomme also usually plays well against the Falcons, and I don’t expect him to throw the ball a lot here, as I think Fox takes advantage of the mismatch on the ground. I like the Panthers in a revenge game here, to even the season series at 1 game a piece. Carolina has not lost 2 games in the same season to the Falcons in 4 seasons. I’ll take the home team here, who has been playing very good football of as of late. Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their L5 games against division opponents.
3Team-10pt Teaser
5 units* Steelers/Broncos Under (51), Saints (-3.5) over Rams, Ravens (PK) over Browns (-110)
First leg on this one, already out of the way with the Under on MNF.
Don't really feel the need to explain the other two legs.
BOL to everyone
Two bad defenses here. Tampa’s “D” is giving up close to 30 points per game on average, and they are surrendering nearly 400 yards of total offense to opponents. I like Miami and their wild cat to “run wild” all over this pathetic Tampa defense. Bucs have given up 28 pts or more in 6 of their 8 games this season. I expect we get the majority of the points we need from the Miami “O” in this one and the rest I leave to the Miami “D” to surrender. Dolphins have given up 20 points or more in 6 of their 8 games this season, and their secondary is 5th worst in the NFL. Freeman was impressive for the Bucs last week and I like Tampa to put up a minimum of 17-20 points out here, which should be enough for us to cash this play. Miami is 4-1 to the Over in their L5 and Tampa is 3-2 to the Over in L5 and are most recently coming off a game which saw 66 total points scored. The Over is also 11-4 in Tampa’s L15 road games and 4-0 in Miami’s L4 home games. I see 31-21 Miami here and the Over cashing.
*$3,000* Dallas Cowboys (–3) over Green Bay Packers (-110)
Some might say this is a letdown spot for the Cowboys after their big win against the Eagles. I say this is a team rolling and clicking on all cylinders. Cowboys have quietly put together an impressive stretch of games and stand at the top of the competitive NFC East division, with a 6-2 record. Their offense is in rhythm, and defensively they are getting after the quarterback and stopping the run. This team has looked better and better each week that they have played and are currently on a 4 game win streak. Green Bay on the other hand, is coming off its worst loss of the season, as they surrendered a victory to what was, a winless Bucs team. Tampa bay came into that game having only 11 sacks in their first 7 games of the season, and Green Bay let them walk away with 6 sacks in 1 game. Their offensive line is a disaster in progress and rank dead last in NFL with 37 total sacks allowed on the season. I expect Demarcus Ware and the rest of the Cowboys D-line to have a big day against this offensive line. I think we see a demoralized Green Bay team surrender b2b victories, with the difference being that this time around, they do it against a much better team in the Dallas Cowboys. Going with the “hot hand” in a matchup that features two teams heading in opposite directions. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in L8 for the series.
*$3,000* Tennessee Titans (–6.5) over Buffalo Bills (-110)
I like the Titans to keep it rolling here. After opening the season 0-6 they have put together b2b wins and appear to have found new life on offense with quarterback Vince Young at the helm. Young’s running ability has opened up lanes for Chris Johnson and we all know how explosive he can be out of the backfield for Tennessee. Also the former Texas quarterback is playing with a chip on his shoulder, which should be music to the ears of Titans backers here. Titans are a hungry team, despite their record. Defensively they finally have Finnegan back in the secondary, and he his already making his presence felt out there. Bottom line, this team is well coached and playing with something to prove out there. Bills on the other hand, have been decimated by injury all season. They have already placed 11 players on IR for the season and head coach Dick Jauron had to spend the Bye week giving players days off to avoid having to add even more players to that list. A quick look at a Bills injury report actually makes you feel sorry for them. But you know what they say, “One man’s garbage is another man’s treasure”. Titans are 7-2 ATS in their L9 following a rushing performance of 150 yards or more in their previous game. Backing the Titans here, who are playing with a renewed sense of confidence.
*$3,000* Philadelphia Eagles (+1) over Dallas Cowboys (-110)
Chargers in the proverbial let down spot after their last second win against the G-men last week. This time around though, they will face off against a much better defense who loves to get after the quarterback and ranks 2nd in NFL in total sacks. Bad news for a Chargers team has no run game and relies so heavily on the pass. Chargers rank dead last in NFL in rushing, as they are averaging less than 70 yds per game. Having Philip Rivers drop back 30 times in this one, will be a recipe for disaster against this defense. Chargers are not the team they used to be, but the public still thinks they are and that’s why we get the Eagles as dogs here. Like the Eagles to bounce back after their loss to Dallas, as they are 5-0 ATS following a SU loss. Expect them to take advantage of a very vulnerable Chargers “D” in this one. Philly’s travel cross country is a non issue, as Chargers had to make the same trip from New York. Wrong team favored here, and my money will be with the live dog. Eagles are 14-6 ATS in their L20 road games, and Chargers are 0-6 ATS when favored by 3 points or less at home.
*$3,000* Denver Broncos (–3) over Washington Redskins (-110)
Absolutely no respect from oddsmakers here. Almost every capper I’ve talked to is on Redskins in this one, but that doesn’t sway me. Many will make reference to Denver’s travel cross country to make a case for the Redskins, but this one still boils down to a terrible offense in Washington facing off against a very good defense in Denver. Broncos, who are coming off b2b losses to Ravens and Steelers, will be ready for this game and should relish in the opportunity of facing off against one of the worst offenses this league has to offer. Redskins managing a porous 14 pts per game, and we all saw what a top caliber “D” can do to their offense when the Eagles played them 2 weeks back in Philly. Much is being made of Washington’s defense, but I’m not reading too much into it. Redskins have given up 100 yds or more on the ground to opponents in 7 of their 8 contests this year. This is another key to the game. In Denver’s wins this year, their running game has played a huge role, as it’s moved the chains and helped Orton by putting him in manageable situations. This will be the gameplan once again here, and there is no reason to expect Washington’s 25th ranked Rush-“D” to shut down Denver’s running attack, which we know is more than capable of taking advantage of suspect run defenses. Going with the much better team here with a major coaching advantage, and really an advantage in nearly all phases of the game. Broncos are desperate for the win after seeing the Chargers get themselves back within the division race, and I like them to bounce back after their loss to a very good Steelers team. Broncos are 4-1 ATS following a loss by double digits at home.
*$2,500* Carolina Panthers (+1.5) over Atlanta Falcons (-110)
2nd year QB Matt Ryan is going through what is commonly referred to as the “sophomore slump”. He has been held to less than 200 passing yards on 4 occasions this year, and I think facing off against the NFL’s 6th ranked secondary in Carolina, makes it 5 for him. I also think Carolina’s Rush “D” slows down Turner here, who historically has not played well against the Panthers in the past. It helps that Carolina’s rush “D” has given up less than 100 yds on the ground to their opponents in 4 of their L5 games heading into this matchup and appear to be turning the corner after a rough start. Panthers are 4-1 ATS after holding an opponent to less than 90 rush yds in their previous game, something they did last week against Washington. This highly touted defense appears to finally be living up to some of their hype. Atlanta on other hand, has picked up where it left off last year, with night and day play on the road vs at home. They are 4-1 SU at home, but just 1-3 on the season when playing on the road. Their porous Run Defense is primarily responsible for their road struggles. Falcons are surrendering an average of 130+ yards/per game to opposing RBs when playing on the road. This does not bode well for them in this matchup, considering how well the run game of the Panthers is playing. Carolina’s rush attack is finally clicking on all cylinders as they are averaging a mind blowing 208 Rushyds/per game in their L4 contests heading into this game. Expect the tandem of Williams and Stuart to have a monster game in this one. If Carolina has taught us anything over the last few weeks it’s this: When Delhomme does not turn over the ball, the Panthers are not THAT different of a team, than the one that went 13-3 last season and went on to win their division. Delhomme also usually plays well against the Falcons, and I don’t expect him to throw the ball a lot here, as I think Fox takes advantage of the mismatch on the ground. I like the Panthers in a revenge game here, to even the season series at 1 game a piece. Carolina has not lost 2 games in the same season to the Falcons in 4 seasons. I’ll take the home team here, who has been playing very good football of as of late. Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their L5 games against division opponents.
3Team-10pt Teaser
5 units* Steelers/Broncos Under (51), Saints (-3.5) over Rams, Ravens (PK) over Browns (-110)
First leg on this one, already out of the way with the Under on MNF.
Don't really feel the need to explain the other two legs.
BOL to everyone
