(4 units) 2team-6pt-Teaser.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills, New York Giants (-.5) over Atlanta Falcons (-110)
I like this play for a number of different reasons. Bills rush "D" ranks dead last in NFL and has given up an average of 200+ rush yards in their L7 games. They are last in the league in total rush yards given up, in rushyds/per carry allowed, and in rushing TD's allowed. A matchup against Mojo and company IN Jacksonville (where rain is expected), should prove to be another miserable performance by a Bills defense decimated by injury all season long. The strength of their defense (their secondary) should be minimized by the conservative play of Del Rio/Gerrard and by Jacksonville's emphasis on pounding the rock. Major advantage for Jacksonville's offense in this one. On the other side of the ball, Bills are dealing with a QB change from a struggling Edwards to a below average QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is the better of two evils for this team, but just goes to show, that for bad teams, the best available option usually gives you a new way to lose, rather than a better chance to win. Does not help that the Bills recently played their 6th! different offensive line combination against the Titans, and ended up losing another player, in OL Demetrius Bell before halftime with a knee injury. Add him to a very very long list of injuries for the Bills on the year. Offensively, Bills haven't been able to much right, as M. Lynch has rushed for 254 yards in 6 games and their QB play has been shaky to say the least. I expect we see an improving Jaguars defense take full advantage this Sunday. Bills also dealing with the firing of head coach Dick Jauron, and before you assume that the switch might lead the Bills to bigger and better things this year, let us make reference to some historical facts. In this decade, teams replacing their head coach during the regular season, have gone 32-68 SU to finish off the season after the switch has been made. In fact, and even more importantly for our purposes, in this decade, interim coaches are 2-12 SU and 2-12 ATS in their very first game as the replacement coach. Needless to say, Fewell will be facing some very tough odds this Sunday. I expect we see an unprepared Bills team take the field against a Jaguars team that will come to play, in their effort to make a playoff push. Really good spot for the Jags to pick up the win here in front of their home crowd, and improve to a 6-4 record.
Giants coming off a much needed BYE week, that came in the midst of a 4 game losing streak. For that reason, I expect we get playoff level intensity from the G-men in this one, in what looks to be a must win situation for them to get back in the thick of things for the division race. Bye week gave them the extra week to prepare, but more importantly gave QB Eli Manning the chance to rest that bum ankle. I expect we see a more fresh Eli out there this Sunday. Also helps that they face an Atlanta team that picked up right where they left off last year, with night and day play on the road vs at home, as they have already gotten off to a 1-4 start away from the Georgia Dome this year. I like Brandon Jacobs and company in their matchup against a very soft run defense in Atlanta that ranks 25th against the run. Tough to envision the upset in this one, considering the circumstances, so my money goes with the home team off the bye week, looking to avenge a 4game losing streak.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills, New York Giants (-.5) over Atlanta Falcons (-110)
I like this play for a number of different reasons. Bills rush "D" ranks dead last in NFL and has given up an average of 200+ rush yards in their L7 games. They are last in the league in total rush yards given up, in rushyds/per carry allowed, and in rushing TD's allowed. A matchup against Mojo and company IN Jacksonville (where rain is expected), should prove to be another miserable performance by a Bills defense decimated by injury all season long. The strength of their defense (their secondary) should be minimized by the conservative play of Del Rio/Gerrard and by Jacksonville's emphasis on pounding the rock. Major advantage for Jacksonville's offense in this one. On the other side of the ball, Bills are dealing with a QB change from a struggling Edwards to a below average QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is the better of two evils for this team, but just goes to show, that for bad teams, the best available option usually gives you a new way to lose, rather than a better chance to win. Does not help that the Bills recently played their 6th! different offensive line combination against the Titans, and ended up losing another player, in OL Demetrius Bell before halftime with a knee injury. Add him to a very very long list of injuries for the Bills on the year. Offensively, Bills haven't been able to much right, as M. Lynch has rushed for 254 yards in 6 games and their QB play has been shaky to say the least. I expect we see an improving Jaguars defense take full advantage this Sunday. Bills also dealing with the firing of head coach Dick Jauron, and before you assume that the switch might lead the Bills to bigger and better things this year, let us make reference to some historical facts. In this decade, teams replacing their head coach during the regular season, have gone 32-68 SU to finish off the season after the switch has been made. In fact, and even more importantly for our purposes, in this decade, interim coaches are 2-12 SU and 2-12 ATS in their very first game as the replacement coach. Needless to say, Fewell will be facing some very tough odds this Sunday. I expect we see an unprepared Bills team take the field against a Jaguars team that will come to play, in their effort to make a playoff push. Really good spot for the Jags to pick up the win here in front of their home crowd, and improve to a 6-4 record.
Giants coming off a much needed BYE week, that came in the midst of a 4 game losing streak. For that reason, I expect we get playoff level intensity from the G-men in this one, in what looks to be a must win situation for them to get back in the thick of things for the division race. Bye week gave them the extra week to prepare, but more importantly gave QB Eli Manning the chance to rest that bum ankle. I expect we see a more fresh Eli out there this Sunday. Also helps that they face an Atlanta team that picked up right where they left off last year, with night and day play on the road vs at home, as they have already gotten off to a 1-4 start away from the Georgia Dome this year. I like Brandon Jacobs and company in their matchup against a very soft run defense in Atlanta that ranks 25th against the run. Tough to envision the upset in this one, considering the circumstances, so my money goes with the home team off the bye week, looking to avenge a 4game losing streak.
