I appreciate your curiousity P. But the writeups never reflect the whole process of capping a game. Takes 2 hours sometimes to cap a game, only takes 20 mins to do a writeup. I have been betting successfully for a long time now, and have that part figured out. Doing writeups, however, is still a work in progress for me. Something I am learning to do as I go along, here at this website. You may find that asking me a specific question on a game, will get you the most amount of info. And I am always willing to answer questions, so always feel free
Well, Orton's absence in the 2H was key, and it made for a tough loss to swallow. Let's see what his status will be for this Sunday, Mimic.
In general though, I would advise to always be weary of predicting a team's future success without taking into consideration each of their opponents, on a case by case basis. It's best to look into each specific matchup, and draw conclusions and predictions from there. With that being said, I do think their recent loss and the resulting public perception of Denver, will cause oddmakers to over-adjust their lines, at least temporarily. But time will only tell, and I think taking it step by step will serve us best. Hope you had a profitable weekend.
It was the NBA. Don't bet college sports. Really a tossup between NBA and NFL for best sport. Depends on the season, but I win in each sport every year. They are my 2 most consistent sports. Then NHL, and lastly MLB.
This was my regular season NBA record last year, at therx.
Numberz's NBA YTD: 164-97 (63%)
Investment Plays: 20-6 (77%)
Action Plays: 103-58 (64%)
Small Plays: 41-33 (55%)
^Not including playoffs, where I did reasonably well also, especially with all of my futures cashing. But every year is different, so take that fwiw. In the NFL, I've won 8 of 10 weeks this year, with the 2 losing weeks recording minimal losses. I have not had the time to keep a record, though, and I hope that very soon, with my schedule freeing up, I will have the time to go back and tally it up. What I do know for sure, regardless of record, is that I'm winning. Hope this helps. GL to you as well.
Ya, not usually a teaser player but this season my arm is being twisted to play them. And they've paid off. Don't want to jinx anything, but we've only lost 1 teaser this year, when the Packers lost to the Bucs SU. Every other teaser has cashed, with the most recent one being yesterday's. Now we already have 1 leg out the way, and have 3 new teasers pending for week 11, with 2 legs to go on each. I like it
4.5 units* Carolina Panthers (-3) over Miami Dolphins (-120)
Fading a Miami team who will be without the centerpiece of their wildcat offense, (recently announced OUT for the season), who is also playing on a very short week with travel, after a last second emotional win against a very below average team in Tampa Bay, and in the proverbial let down spot as result. Ronnie Brown's absence, should throw rookie QB, Chad Henne, into the more predictable role we come to expect of NFL QB's, eliminating Miami's 'keep the defense guessing' approach on offense, which benefited the rookie QB immensely in his development to this point. Now the rookie QB, who lacks a good enough receiving core ,will have to shoulder more pressure and responsibility for Dolphins to win games, which of course, is no good for any rookie player, let alone at the quarterback position. Even more damaging for the Dolphins, when considering the specific matchup they have at their feet this week, which features him going against the NFL's #4 rated secondary in the Panthers, who as a unit have recorded 8 INT in their L3 games. Tough spot for Chad Henne and the Miami "O" here. Carolina on the other hand playing extremely well, even though they have faced solid opponents of late, they are playing the back end of b2b home games so no travel, which helps with the short week at hand, also coming off a convincing victory against a playoff caliber team, and now have the chance to gain some serious ground in the wildcard chase as Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Falcons ALL are coming off SU losses and are all teams the Panthers are chasing for a playoff spot. Momentum, motivation, scheduling situation, just a few advantages working in favor of Carolina here. Delhomme has not thrown a INT in 3 straight games, Panthers running the ball with a 200+ rush yd average in L5 games and despite popular opinion and season ranking of Dolphins Run defense, the Dolphins have given up a 100 yd rusher in 5 straight games and are surrendering an average that is just a hair under 130 rushyds/per game in that span. Their season stats are skewed because of a start that saw them hold their 1st 4 opponents to less than 70 yds per game, but we live in a "what have you done for me lately?" kind of world, and this Dolphins rush "D" has done nothing lately to suggest they will be able to stop the NFL's best rushing attack over the last 5 weeks, in Carolina. This run D is over-rated, imo, and Miami shuffling players in and out of their defensive lineup should raise the warning flag, that coaches are worried too. Expect Williams and co to have another big day, and for Delhomme to continue playing well against this porous Miami secondary. I''ll lay the field goal here with the home team, who is on a 4-1 Win streak ATS. I see 27-14 Carolina. GL
Fading a Miami team who will be without the centerpiece of their wildcat offense, (recently announced OUT for the season), who is also playing on a very short week with travel, after a last second emotional win against a very below average team in Tampa Bay, and in the proverbial let down spot as result. Ronnie Brown's absence, should throw rookie QB, Chad Henne, into the more predictable role we come to expect of NFL QB's, eliminating Miami's 'keep the defense guessing' approach on offense, which benefited the rookie QB immensely in his development to this point. Now the rookie QB, who lacks a good enough receiving core ,will have to shoulder more pressure and responsibility for Dolphins to win games, which of course, is no good for any rookie player, let alone at the quarterback position. Even more damaging for the Dolphins, when considering the specific matchup they have at their feet this week, which features him going against the NFL's #4 rated secondary in the Panthers, who as a unit have recorded 8 INT in their L3 games. Tough spot for Chad Henne and the Miami "O" here. Carolina on the other hand playing extremely well, even though they have faced solid opponents of late, they are playing the back end of b2b home games so no travel, which helps with the short week at hand, also coming off a convincing victory against a playoff caliber team, and now have the chance to gain some serious ground in the wildcard chase as Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Falcons ALL are coming off SU losses and are all teams the Panthers are chasing for a playoff spot. Momentum, motivation, scheduling situation, just a few advantages working in favor of Carolina here. Delhomme has not thrown a INT in 3 straight games, Panthers running the ball with a 200+ rush yd average in L5 games and despite popular opinion and season ranking of Dolphins Run defense, the Dolphins have given up a 100 yd rusher in 5 straight games and are surrendering an average that is just a hair under 130 rushyds/per game in that span. Their season stats are skewed because of a start that saw them hold their 1st 4 opponents to less than 70 yds per game, but we live in a "what have you done for me lately?" kind of world, and this Dolphins rush "D" has done nothing lately to suggest they will be able to stop the NFL's best rushing attack over the last 5 weeks, in Carolina. This run D is over-rated, imo, and Miami shuffling players in and out of their defensive lineup should raise the warning flag, that coaches are worried too. Expect Williams and co to have another big day, and for Delhomme to continue playing well against this porous Miami secondary. I''ll lay the field goal here with the home team, who is on a 4-1 Win streak ATS. I see 27-14 Carolina. GL
Espn's take on injury to Williams...
Williams (knee) was held out of Wednesday's practice and is officially listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Dolphins, Darin Gantt of the Rock Hill Herald reports.
Spin:
A couple of things to consider. First, the Panthers have been very liberal with the questionable tag this season. Second, Williams wasn't mentioned as a non-participant in practice earlier in the week. Third, Williams played in Week 10 after carrying a questionable tag and missing practice on Friday. Finally, the Panthers may have been extra cautious with him on Wednesday because of rainy conditions during practice. We think he'll be able to play on Thursday night, but you'll want to check back about an hour before kickoff just to be certain.
Statfox on the injuries...
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) -Carolina Panthers running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are questionable for Thursday's game against Miami with lingering injuries.
Williams skipped practice Wednesday with a sore left knee, but coach John Fox said they were ``resting'' him. Stewart practiced in full after sitting out Tuesday with a sore Achilles' tendon.
Sounds like they will both play...
As far as LT Gross, I think the Panthers are too well coached on the offensive line to be devastated by one person's injury...also the guy who will be filling his shoes, Travelle Wharton, has experience at the Left Tackle position...Panthers also have a variety off pass protection/run blocking schemes which feature different personnel packages..They are dynamic in this regard..Their tight ends can and have blocked from the fullback spot for example, and they have shifted Olinemen around before..they are versatille enough and coached well enough, that I think they overcome Jordan Gross's absence..
So, not really too concerned about their ability to run it here..One guy's block's don't allow you to rush for a 200 yard average over 5 games, which is what the Panthers have under their belt heading into this one..They are committed to running, and have the right attitude from their coach-staff down..I think they will be ok without him, and Wharton will step up and fill his shoes..
Let me know if this helps..
Williams (knee) was held out of Wednesday's practice and is officially listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Dolphins, Darin Gantt of the Rock Hill Herald reports.
Spin:
A couple of things to consider. First, the Panthers have been very liberal with the questionable tag this season. Second, Williams wasn't mentioned as a non-participant in practice earlier in the week. Third, Williams played in Week 10 after carrying a questionable tag and missing practice on Friday. Finally, the Panthers may have been extra cautious with him on Wednesday because of rainy conditions during practice. We think he'll be able to play on Thursday night, but you'll want to check back about an hour before kickoff just to be certain.
Statfox on the injuries...
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) -Carolina Panthers running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are questionable for Thursday's game against Miami with lingering injuries.
Williams skipped practice Wednesday with a sore left knee, but coach John Fox said they were ``resting'' him. Stewart practiced in full after sitting out Tuesday with a sore Achilles' tendon.
Sounds like they will both play...
As far as LT Gross, I think the Panthers are too well coached on the offensive line to be devastated by one person's injury...also the guy who will be filling his shoes, Travelle Wharton, has experience at the Left Tackle position...Panthers also have a variety off pass protection/run blocking schemes which feature different personnel packages..They are dynamic in this regard..Their tight ends can and have blocked from the fullback spot for example, and they have shifted Olinemen around before..they are versatille enough and coached well enough, that I think they overcome Jordan Gross's absence..
So, not really too concerned about their ability to run it here..One guy's block's don't allow you to rush for a 200 yard average over 5 games, which is what the Panthers have under their belt heading into this one..They are committed to running, and have the right attitude from their coach-staff down..I think they will be ok without him, and Wharton will step up and fill his shoes..
Let me know if this helps..
Trying out something different for writeups, opinions are welcome...
3.5 units* Baltimore Ravens (+1) over Indianapolis Colts (-110)
Contrarian approach: Both teams coming off primetime game. Colts on SNF where they impressed the public by beating a very good Patriots team, Ravens on MNF where they shocked the world by struggling to beat what many consider still, to be the worst team in the league. That's saying something this year. Public opinion soaring on the Manning-led Colts and reaching a new low for Flacco's Ravens. Vegas understood what public perception would be after the games, and came out with a line begging for one sided action. If their intention was to balance money, a line making the Ravens 3.5 point dogs would've gotten the job done. Instead they knowingly set up a situation with heave public backing on one side. Colts have won 18 straight regular season games, and Vegas is aware that the public is aware. And they offer them at what is virtually a pick. Books don't always want balance. They have "leans" from time to time as well. Oddsmakers edge: Ravens
Ravens facing a must win, statement-game situation at home, Colts in a letdown spot after their last second win against the Pats, and play on the road. Ravens have had this game circled on schedule from beginning of season, "that" game for the Colts was last week against Patriots. The more desperate team is undoubtedly Baltimore. Going to be difficult for Indy to match Ravens intensity, especially since they sit pretty with a 9-0 record and a 4 game lead in division, while Baltimore fights for their playoff life. Emotional edge: Ravens
In b2b games w/out Bob Sanders and against two good offenses, Colts "D" has surrendered 665 yards, through the air. This week they will face off against another potent passing attack and another good offensive line in Baltimore. Ravens "O" L5 of 6 have been against top of the league defenses, and this will be the softest matchup their offense has seen in a while. Expect the Ravens to light up the score board here against a very vulnerable Indianapolis defense. On the other side of the ball, Manning will be Manning, but this aggressive Ravens "D" will make sure to disturb him in the pocket. I expect they will blitz early and often and take a page out of NE's defensive playbook, in the 2nd half of Sunday's game which caused 2 picks, and send guys from different spots to keep the pro-bowl QB on his heels for as much of the game as possible. I see 34-24 Ravens. X's and O's edge: Ravens
3.5 units* Baltimore Ravens (+1) over Indianapolis Colts (-110)
Contrarian approach: Both teams coming off primetime game. Colts on SNF where they impressed the public by beating a very good Patriots team, Ravens on MNF where they shocked the world by struggling to beat what many consider still, to be the worst team in the league. That's saying something this year. Public opinion soaring on the Manning-led Colts and reaching a new low for Flacco's Ravens. Vegas understood what public perception would be after the games, and came out with a line begging for one sided action. If their intention was to balance money, a line making the Ravens 3.5 point dogs would've gotten the job done. Instead they knowingly set up a situation with heave public backing on one side. Colts have won 18 straight regular season games, and Vegas is aware that the public is aware. And they offer them at what is virtually a pick. Books don't always want balance. They have "leans" from time to time as well. Oddsmakers edge: Ravens
Ravens facing a must win, statement-game situation at home, Colts in a letdown spot after their last second win against the Pats, and play on the road. Ravens have had this game circled on schedule from beginning of season, "that" game for the Colts was last week against Patriots. The more desperate team is undoubtedly Baltimore. Going to be difficult for Indy to match Ravens intensity, especially since they sit pretty with a 9-0 record and a 4 game lead in division, while Baltimore fights for their playoff life. Emotional edge: Ravens
In b2b games w/out Bob Sanders and against two good offenses, Colts "D" has surrendered 665 yards, through the air. This week they will face off against another potent passing attack and another good offensive line in Baltimore. Ravens "O" L5 of 6 have been against top of the league defenses, and this will be the softest matchup their offense has seen in a while. Expect the Ravens to light up the score board here against a very vulnerable Indianapolis defense. On the other side of the ball, Manning will be Manning, but this aggressive Ravens "D" will make sure to disturb him in the pocket. I expect they will blitz early and often and take a page out of NE's defensive playbook, in the 2nd half of Sunday's game which caused 2 picks, and send guys from different spots to keep the pro-bowl QB on his heels for as much of the game as possible. I see 34-24 Ravens. X's and O's edge: Ravens
:drink:Embarrassing loss by the Panthers. They put up a 6.7 rushyd/per attempt average, 182 net rush yards, and only run the ball 27 times as a team :think2:
To put it into perspective, Delhomme threw the ball 42 times in this one
hno:
Coaches did a very poor job of playcalling, and the defense with terrible tackling all game. One of the more frustrating losses this year.
I suspect we make up for it this weekend, but still a frustrating loss.
Nothing to do but move on to tomorrow.
To put it into perspective, Delhomme threw the ball 42 times in this one
hno:Coaches did a very poor job of playcalling, and the defense with terrible tackling all game. One of the more frustrating losses this year.
I suspect we make up for it this weekend, but still a frustrating loss.
Nothing to do but move on to tomorrow.
Bumping this one up to new page...
3.5 units* Baltimore Ravens (+1) over Indianapolis Colts (-110)
Contrarian approach: Both teams coming off primetime game. Colts on SNF where they impressed the public by beating a very good Patriots team, Ravens on MNF where they shocked the world by struggling to beat what many consider still, to be the worst team in the league. That's saying something this year. Public opinion soaring on the Manning-led Colts and reaching a new low for Flacco's Ravens. Vegas understood what public perception would be after the games, and came out with a line begging for one sided action. If their intention was to balance money, a line making the Ravens 3.5 point dogs would've gotten the job done. Instead they knowingly set up a situation with heave public backing on one side. Colts have won 18 straight regular season games, and Vegas is aware that the public is aware. And they offer them at what is virtually a pick. Books don't always want balance. They have "leans" from time to time as well. Oddsmakers edge: Ravens
Ravens facing a must win, statement-game situation at home, Colts in a letdown spot after their last second win against the Pats, and play on the road. Ravens have had this game circled on schedule from beginning of season, "that" game for the Colts was last week against Patriots. The more desperate team is undoubtedly Baltimore. Going to be difficult for Indy to match Ravens intensity, especially since they sit pretty with a 9-0 record and a 4 game lead in division, while Baltimore fights for their playoff life. Emotional edge: Ravens
In b2b games w/out Bob Sanders and against two good offenses, Colts "D" has surrendered 665 yards, through the air. This week they will face off against another potent passing attack and another good offensive line in Baltimore. Ravens "O" L5 of 6 have been against top of the league defenses, and this will be the softest matchup their offense has seen in a while. Expect the Ravens to light up the score board here against a very vulnerable Indianapolis defense. On the other side of the ball, Manning will be Manning, but this aggressive Ravens "D" will make sure to disturb him in the pocket. I expect they will blitz early and often and take a page out of NE's defensive playbook, in the 2nd half of Sunday's game which caused 2 picks, and send guys from different spots to keep the pro-bowl QB on his heels for as much of the game as possible. I see 34-24 Ravens. X's and O's edge: Ravens
3.5 units* Baltimore Ravens (+1) over Indianapolis Colts (-110)
Contrarian approach: Both teams coming off primetime game. Colts on SNF where they impressed the public by beating a very good Patriots team, Ravens on MNF where they shocked the world by struggling to beat what many consider still, to be the worst team in the league. That's saying something this year. Public opinion soaring on the Manning-led Colts and reaching a new low for Flacco's Ravens. Vegas understood what public perception would be after the games, and came out with a line begging for one sided action. If their intention was to balance money, a line making the Ravens 3.5 point dogs would've gotten the job done. Instead they knowingly set up a situation with heave public backing on one side. Colts have won 18 straight regular season games, and Vegas is aware that the public is aware. And they offer them at what is virtually a pick. Books don't always want balance. They have "leans" from time to time as well. Oddsmakers edge: Ravens
Ravens facing a must win, statement-game situation at home, Colts in a letdown spot after their last second win against the Pats, and play on the road. Ravens have had this game circled on schedule from beginning of season, "that" game for the Colts was last week against Patriots. The more desperate team is undoubtedly Baltimore. Going to be difficult for Indy to match Ravens intensity, especially since they sit pretty with a 9-0 record and a 4 game lead in division, while Baltimore fights for their playoff life. Emotional edge: Ravens
In b2b games w/out Bob Sanders and against two good offenses, Colts "D" has surrendered 665 yards, through the air. This week they will face off against another potent passing attack and another good offensive line in Baltimore. Ravens "O" L5 of 6 have been against top of the league defenses, and this will be the softest matchup their offense has seen in a while. Expect the Ravens to light up the score board here against a very vulnerable Indianapolis defense. On the other side of the ball, Manning will be Manning, but this aggressive Ravens "D" will make sure to disturb him in the pocket. I expect they will blitz early and often and take a page out of NE's defensive playbook, in the 2nd half of Sunday's game which caused 2 picks, and send guys from different spots to keep the pro-bowl QB on his heels for as much of the game as possible. I see 34-24 Ravens. X's and O's edge: Ravens
Be back with writeup later tonight, just want to get the plays out before I head out...
(5 units) Indianapolis Colts/Baltimore Ravens OVER 44 (-110)
(4 units) 2team-6pt-Teaser.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills, New York Giants (-.5) over Atlanta Falcons (-110)
(5 units) Indianapolis Colts/Baltimore Ravens OVER 44 (-110)
(4 units) 2team-6pt-Teaser.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills, New York Giants (-.5) over Atlanta Falcons (-110)
