MOVING ahead to
SUNDAY, Jan 4
BULLET +9 (-110) vs Cav $10
These two teams have played 11 times in past 13 months and Washington has stayed within nine in nine of those games, including all five in D.C.
Cleveland comes in off of a game in which they topped their scoring average by 8+ and Washington comes in off a game in which they fell 8+ pts below their scoring average. Both of those roles respectively revert to center in a strong majority of league games. Combined, in this one we like it to work in our favor and further strengthen our odds on pulling this nice home dog spread winner.
SUNDAY, Jan 4
BULLET +9 (-110) vs Cav $10
These two teams have played 11 times in past 13 months and Washington has stayed within nine in nine of those games, including all five in D.C.
Cleveland comes in off of a game in which they topped their scoring average by 8+ and Washington comes in off a game in which they fell 8+ pts below their scoring average. Both of those roles respectively revert to center in a strong majority of league games. Combined, in this one we like it to work in our favor and further strengthen our odds on pulling this nice home dog spread winner.
ADDING for Sunday
KNICKERBOCKER +10.5 (-110) vs Irish $10
BEAR +7 (-110) vs Little Mavericks $10
These two set up in remarkably similar fashion to the CLE/WAS game
The visitor is coming off an above average Defensive performance and the home dog team is coming off a below average Offensive performance.
Leaguewide, teams in the former role struggle a bit if next game is Away and teams in the latter role step it up a bit if next game is at Home.
Best to us all for a profitable Sunday
KNICKERBOCKER +10.5 (-110) vs Irish $10
BEAR +7 (-110) vs Little Mavericks $10
These two set up in remarkably similar fashion to the CLE/WAS game
The visitor is coming off an above average Defensive performance and the home dog team is coming off a below average Offensive performance.
Leaguewide, teams in the former role struggle a bit if next game is Away and teams in the latter role step it up a bit if next game is at Home.
Best to us all for a profitable Sunday
No...taking a Pass after essentially calling four consecutive (one unposted) dog winners.
BUT...I am watching the first half with interest because I'm pretty darn sure this one finishes Under 199.5
I just can't see Blazers getting above 91 here.
So if the 1H gets much above 100, I might slip in for a small 2H Under shot. Otherwise, I'm done for Sunday and poking into Monday and Tuesday matchups
OVERNITE leans for
MONDAY, Jan 5
*I will almost certainly be using MIAMI vs Spurs - once I get a line
*My line for NJ is -4
*I really like GST/UTA to stay Under 219.5, but I'm sticking with my pledge to not do any more full game Unders lined above 200. Rather I will wait for halftime and see if I can catch a better priced middle for 2H Under
*Also really like DENVER -8.5, but I think I can get in at a slightly better number come halftime since Pacers play stronger in first half when on the road.
Back early Monday afternoon
MONDAY, Jan 5
*I will almost certainly be using MIAMI vs Spurs - once I get a line
*My line for NJ is -4
*I really like GST/UTA to stay Under 219.5, but I'm sticking with my pledge to not do any more full game Unders lined above 200. Rather I will wait for halftime and see if I can catch a better priced middle for 2H Under
*Also really like DENVER -8.5, but I think I can get in at a slightly better number come halftime since Pacers play stronger in first half when on the road.
Back early Monday afternoon
Going ahead and using
NUGGET +8 (-110) vs Pacer $8
This season playing at Home versus teams with below league average D's, Denver is 6-1 when graded at -8
Both teams come into this one playing a 3rdin4. Denver so far this season is 9-5 playing 3rdin4s, including 5-1 at Home with all five covering the spread number. Pacers are 3-3 playing 3rdin4s Away, but covered the dog number only twice in those six.
Finally, Indiana in a tough actuarial spot as they're playing Away After Scoring more than 8pts above their normal average. NBA teams leaguewide facing this role are 35-57 SU and 42-50 ATS. Indiana themselves have played three times this year on the road following a game where they scored 8+ above their normal average and they were thoroughly powdered all three times by double digits (18, 13 and 18 pts)
Back later....Let's all have a good Monday
NUGGET +8 (-110) vs Pacer $8
This season playing at Home versus teams with below league average D's, Denver is 6-1 when graded at -8
Both teams come into this one playing a 3rdin4. Denver so far this season is 9-5 playing 3rdin4s, including 5-1 at Home with all five covering the spread number. Pacers are 3-3 playing 3rdin4s Away, but covered the dog number only twice in those six.
Finally, Indiana in a tough actuarial spot as they're playing Away After Scoring more than 8pts above their normal average. NBA teams leaguewide facing this role are 35-57 SU and 42-50 ATS. Indiana themselves have played three times this year on the road following a game where they scored 8+ above their normal average and they were thoroughly powdered all three times by double digits (18, 13 and 18 pts)
Back later....Let's all have a good Monday
ope:HEAT +3.5 (-110) vs St Tony $8
Well here we have it again...Visiting Spurs roll in off a game in which they scored 108 (avg 97) and Heat playing at home off a game in which they scored just 85 in regulation (avg 96).
Teams playing Away in former role are 35-57 SU, while teams playing at Home in latter role are 79-44 SU
More specifically, Spurs are 2-2 SU and 1-3 (-3.5) ATS in this role so far this season and Heat are 5-1 SU and 5-1 (+3.5) ATS so far this season
Heat also in the Home After Home (1DayRest) role which is year in and year out the best scheduling spot for both NBA and NHL teams.
Well here we have it again...Visiting Spurs roll in off a game in which they scored 108 (avg 97) and Heat playing at home off a game in which they scored just 85 in regulation (avg 96).
Teams playing Away in former role are 35-57 SU, while teams playing at Home in latter role are 79-44 SU
More specifically, Spurs are 2-2 SU and 1-3 (-3.5) ATS in this role so far this season and Heat are 5-1 SU and 5-1 (+3.5) ATS so far this season
Heat also in the Home After Home (1DayRest) role which is year in and year out the best scheduling spot for both NBA and NHL teams.
Nice catch YG
I personally track such numbers by "regulation only"...which changes it to 1-6, but the core observation remains solid either way.
Actually, if we roll the clock back into last season, they're currently on a run of 4-13 SU and 2-15 ATS After Allowing 100+
I've been giving some consideration to mixing MIA +145 in somehow and will poke around to find a second piece with which to use it in a small risk 2TeamParlay
I personally track such numbers by "regulation only"...which changes it to 1-6, but the core observation remains solid either way.
Actually, if we roll the clock back into last season, they're currently on a run of 4-13 SU and 2-15 ATS After Allowing 100+
I've been giving some consideration to mixing MIA +145 in somehow and will poke around to find a second piece with which to use it in a small risk 2TeamParlay
