Noticed there was an oddly timed early game tomorrow so I figured I would cap it before digging into the entire card. Was a little surprised I found a good play, that led me to specifically cap another game as well and that was good too. Haven't been giving all my 2X plays out because I don't like suggesting to others that they shift their wager size but these plays are sort of complimentary so I put them both here.
2X #306598 UL-Monroe/Jacksonville over 138.5
Was on the over the last time UL-Monroe played and some might have thought that was due to Lamar (who has been playing overs) but it was actually due to the Warhawks. ULM has faced a pretty tough schedule but the cue is in the level of defensive talent they've gone up against. ULM has faced the #1, #38, #42, and #157 defenses and the #157 was Sam Houston St. whose sub-metrics show they might be even better than their ranking. That's a tough slate to go against for a mediocre team like ULM. In the games they've faced vs poor defenses (#323, #359, #328) they've scored 74,74, 73 points....that's pretty consistent. Here they face the #311 defense and I think we can expect similar results. Jacksonville is the better team and possess the better offense with a legit scorer in G McCray (17.5 ppg) who should get his in this matchup. The Dolphins have faced 4 poor defensive teams (#341, #355, #341, #337) and face another one here (#300), in those games they've averaged 84 ppg and the games have played to an average of 163.5. This is a 2X at this number and would be a regular play up to 142.5.
2X #306614 Southern Miss/Lamar over 148.5
Other half of our previous play but a good setup here too. Southern Miss has faced 2 poor defensive teams this year (#356, #359) and have scored 86.5 ppg in those matchups. They face another weak defensive team in Lamar (#328) so expecting similar results is not unreasonable. The Golden Eagles are a bit top heavy on offense but have 3 sturdy scorers (15.4 ppg, 15.1 ppg, 13.7 ppg) who should flourish in this matchup. Lamar has played only one team with a comparable pace to Southern Miss (#247) and that was last time out vs ULM (#274), with that game playing to 170 and going over. I like some of the sub-metrics for this game and my EPTT is 157.5. I'll play over any number below 152.5 (which is what the number should be).
#876 Murray St./Arkansas-LR over 151
#890 Eastern Washington/Cal Poly over 145.5
2X #306598 UL-Monroe/Jacksonville over 138.5
Was on the over the last time UL-Monroe played and some might have thought that was due to Lamar (who has been playing overs) but it was actually due to the Warhawks. ULM has faced a pretty tough schedule but the cue is in the level of defensive talent they've gone up against. ULM has faced the #1, #38, #42, and #157 defenses and the #157 was Sam Houston St. whose sub-metrics show they might be even better than their ranking. That's a tough slate to go against for a mediocre team like ULM. In the games they've faced vs poor defenses (#323, #359, #328) they've scored 74,74, 73 points....that's pretty consistent. Here they face the #311 defense and I think we can expect similar results. Jacksonville is the better team and possess the better offense with a legit scorer in G McCray (17.5 ppg) who should get his in this matchup. The Dolphins have faced 4 poor defensive teams (#341, #355, #341, #337) and face another one here (#300), in those games they've averaged 84 ppg and the games have played to an average of 163.5. This is a 2X at this number and would be a regular play up to 142.5.
2X #306614 Southern Miss/Lamar over 148.5
Other half of our previous play but a good setup here too. Southern Miss has faced 2 poor defensive teams this year (#356, #359) and have scored 86.5 ppg in those matchups. They face another weak defensive team in Lamar (#328) so expecting similar results is not unreasonable. The Golden Eagles are a bit top heavy on offense but have 3 sturdy scorers (15.4 ppg, 15.1 ppg, 13.7 ppg) who should flourish in this matchup. Lamar has played only one team with a comparable pace to Southern Miss (#247) and that was last time out vs ULM (#274), with that game playing to 170 and going over. I like some of the sub-metrics for this game and my EPTT is 157.5. I'll play over any number below 152.5 (which is what the number should be).
#876 Murray St./Arkansas-LR over 151
#890 Eastern Washington/Cal Poly over 145.5
