Getting after it today, a few early ones:
#837 North Texas/LSU under 130
Early start time after both teams played physical games yesterday that wound up in close, grind it out, type finishes. This has the feel of that type of game as well and both teams may get off to sluggish starts. North Texas plays slow & both teams defend very well. Athletes but no pure scorers to worry about.
#771 Northern Illinois/Georgia St. over 153.5
Love this matchup. Should see an extreme pace and a fairly close game. Georgia St. will relish the opportunity to try out TY's faster pace vs a similarly talented opponent, the quality NI shooters will enjoy that too. Winner gets to 85+ in this one.
#837 North Texas/LSU under 130
Early start time after both teams played physical games yesterday that wound up in close, grind it out, type finishes. This has the feel of that type of game as well and both teams may get off to sluggish starts. North Texas plays slow & both teams defend very well. Athletes but no pure scorers to worry about.
#771 Northern Illinois/Georgia St. over 153.5
Love this matchup. Should see an extreme pace and a fairly close game. Georgia St. will relish the opportunity to try out TY's faster pace vs a similarly talented opponent, the quality NI shooters will enjoy that too. Winner gets to 85+ in this one.
Adding and will be throughout the day:
#776 Lindenwood/Omaha over 148.5
Lindenwood wants to play up-tempo and they have. They'll get a wiling partner in Omaha. Lindenwood's offensive numbers have been held back by the fact that they rely on pace over shooting prowess AND that they've been unfortunate to face 3 very capable defensive teams so far (Nebraska, Iowa St., Air Force). Omaha will not present nearly that defensive challenge. The pace here should be good and my EPPT for the game is 158.5. This is my first double-digit variance vs the posted rankings so far this year. Seems a good spot.
#776 Lindenwood/Omaha over 148.5
Lindenwood wants to play up-tempo and they have. They'll get a wiling partner in Omaha. Lindenwood's offensive numbers have been held back by the fact that they rely on pace over shooting prowess AND that they've been unfortunate to face 3 very capable defensive teams so far (Nebraska, Iowa St., Air Force). Omaha will not present nearly that defensive challenge. The pace here should be good and my EPPT for the game is 158.5. This is my first double-digit variance vs the posted rankings so far this year. Seems a good spot.
Totals = 14-19-1 42.4%. -6.5 units
Sides = 6-9 40.0%. -4.0 units
I couldn't try to be this bad. Both of my wins came by one possession. A hair away from an 0-6 day and lucky that it wasn't. Squeezing out a few wins and making lots of bets where I have no chance. Bad in all sports. Just a few days away from packing it in for a while. Sorry to anyone who has been actually following any of this.
Sides = 6-9 40.0%. -4.0 units
I couldn't try to be this bad. Both of my wins came by one possession. A hair away from an 0-6 day and lucky that it wasn't. Squeezing out a few wins and making lots of bets where I have no chance. Bad in all sports. Just a few days away from packing it in for a while. Sorry to anyone who has been actually following any of this.
One in the midday window:
#640 Akron/Drake over 141
2 good mid-major programs here and both are well coached. I think we'll see a competitive game. I'm a touch surprised at the fairly significant move downward from the opener (145), especially considering the copy and paste KenPom numbers have been so strong. Someone has an opinion in this one. I like it when we get competitive lines (I made this game PK) and when both teams have legit go-to scorers to bail them out in late shot clock situations. Akron has Freeman (17.6 ppg), who is a beast, and Drake has the coaches son DeVries (18 ppg). Akron defends even better than their KenPom rating, so that's worrisome, but I'm willing to grab the 4 point cushion as I think the opener was correct & I would have been on the borderline of playing that higher number over too.
#640 Akron/Drake over 141
2 good mid-major programs here and both are well coached. I think we'll see a competitive game. I'm a touch surprised at the fairly significant move downward from the opener (145), especially considering the copy and paste KenPom numbers have been so strong. Someone has an opinion in this one. I like it when we get competitive lines (I made this game PK) and when both teams have legit go-to scorers to bail them out in late shot clock situations. Akron has Freeman (17.6 ppg), who is a beast, and Drake has the coaches son DeVries (18 ppg). Akron defends even better than their KenPom rating, so that's worrisome, but I'm willing to grab the 4 point cushion as I think the opener was correct & I would have been on the borderline of playing that higher number over too.
Numbers are numbers I guess, these guys got me yesterday but looks like I'm back with them again today:
#642 Utah St./Stephen F. Austin over 142.5
Ditto my analysis from above, but with Osobor (21.8 ppg) for Utah St. and Hall (13 ppg) for the Lumberjacks. Hall's numbers don't seem that great, but watch him play....he's a legit guy. Utah St. has been defending well, which is worrisome, and the Lumberjacks rely on efficiency over talent. I made the number 147 so I'm willing to play this game over too. Should be a competitive game.
#642 Utah St./Stephen F. Austin over 142.5
Ditto my analysis from above, but with Osobor (21.8 ppg) for Utah St. and Hall (13 ppg) for the Lumberjacks. Hall's numbers don't seem that great, but watch him play....he's a legit guy. Utah St. has been defending well, which is worrisome, and the Lumberjacks rely on efficiency over talent. I made the number 147 so I'm willing to play this game over too. Should be a competitive game.
More for today 11-22-23:
#306556 Mt. St. Mary's/American over 136
This is a coaching total. American HC Simpkins wants to play a little faster and alternate between his 4 guard lineup and playing his two bigs at the same time. I think the big lineup will give Mt. St. Mary's some trouble and that coach Simpkins will enjoy this chance to play a little more uptempo vs a similarly talented opponent. Rarely do you get marker games this early in the season but American has one as their matchup vs NJIT should be very similar....that game played to a total of 160.
#728 Marquette +3.5
#306556 Mt. St. Mary's/American over 136
This is a coaching total. American HC Simpkins wants to play a little faster and alternate between his 4 guard lineup and playing his two bigs at the same time. I think the big lineup will give Mt. St. Mary's some trouble and that coach Simpkins will enjoy this chance to play a little more uptempo vs a similarly talented opponent. Rarely do you get marker games this early in the season but American has one as their matchup vs NJIT should be very similar....that game played to a total of 160.
#728 Marquette +3.5
2X Totals = 1-1 0.0%. -0.2 units
Totals = 20-24 45.5%. -5.9 units
Sides = 7-9 43.8%. -3.0 units
For Thanksgiving, I hope that everyone has an enjoyable day with family and friends.
More sides than normal for today.
#777 Loyala-Chicago +3
#763 Villanova +3
#771 Florida Atlantic -6
#789 Michigan St. +6 (-120)
#780 Colorado St./Creighton over 153
#774 Iowa St./VCU over 131
Totals = 20-24 45.5%. -5.9 units
Sides = 7-9 43.8%. -3.0 units
For Thanksgiving, I hope that everyone has an enjoyable day with family and friends.
More sides than normal for today.
#777 Loyala-Chicago +3
#763 Villanova +3
#771 Florida Atlantic -6
#789 Michigan St. +6 (-120)
#780 Colorado St./Creighton over 153
#774 Iowa St./VCU over 131
