The Bills already destroyed the Dolphins AND Cowboys AND beat up the Chiefs in their own barn. If not for a stupid last second penalty, they almost beat the Eagles in Philly (no, not a moral victory, just more proof this team competes every game). Largest defeat of the year: 6 points against the Bengals. Those are the games I look at - contender vs contender. Blowouts (or even losses) against bottom feeders are irrelevant.
Sure, bettors fault the Bills for inconsistency against garbage teams. Fair. Losing to the woeful Broncos, Jets and Pats in the dying seconds was indeed embarrassing, but that doesn't factor how they play against the Big Boys. It's like college, only bettors care if Alabama doesn't cover a -35 spread. No team fires on all cylinders every game. If they did, dumb gamblers would be rich and smart sportsbooks would be broke.
Take the baby soft Dolphins - racking up impressive stats all year against bottom feeders. How's that working for them? On the verge of chocking away a division title everyone assumed they had clinched. How the hell did that happen??? Just look at their most recent game in Baltimore. McDaniel, no doubt a "Treky" who does all his game prep on his X-Box, is obviously in over his head on both sides of the ball. And even if he were a football genius, which he certainly is not, the Dolphins simply don't have the horses to compete. Oooo, Dolphins have something to prove, gonna be a great close game in Baltimore! Whoops, 56-19
...amazingly, a carbon copy of the Bills 48-20 rout earlier season. Not even in the same league.
So you see, despite all the criticism and inconsistencies leveled against the Bills, they don't get blown out. Why? They have the horses to compete and beat the good teams. Doesn't mean they waltz to the SuperBowl unscathed (lots of variables in the playoffs) but it does mean they are positioned to make a run, just like the last few seasons. Top 5 contender again, along with the Niners, Ravens etc. (Admittedly, the possibility of going from #2 seed to no playoff seed at all in ONE GAME is simply nuts!)
Now, let's look at the final game of the season using pure market analytics -
Bills at Dolphins.
The fawning fake media sure does love those Dolphin darlings. Like Tyreek ("MVP"
), Tua ("top 5 QB"
) and McDaniel ("COY"
) but oddsmakers and sportsbooks most definitely do not. Nobody respects the Dolphins. Why?
The Bills were rapidly bet up to 3 on the road against Miami. Huh? Shouldn't the "division leaders" at home facing a team which may not even make the playoffs be the clear favorite? Yes! But they're not! Makes no sense. Even for me, this is a serious headscratcher. "Normal" would look like Miami 3/3.5. But even that doesn't tell the full story.
Keep in mind it takes a truckload of $$$ for a line to move into a key number, hence the continuous forced line movement toward the Bills. Sportsbooks aren't in the habit of giving away free money, so rather than open the line at say a solid -3 Miami and have sharps hammer the points, the oddsmaker opted to hang basically a PK'em (or Bills as the favorite, depending on the book) as a defensive tactic hoping to sucker, err entice, more even (Dolphin) action. Did it work? Nope! Witness the immediate rapid line movement also begging for Dolphins $$$. That's the whole purpose of line movement and the art of bookmaking - enticing action on the "cold side" hoping to balance the ledger, minus the vig.
Hmmm, so BOTH the oddsmaker AND early big money bettors shaping the market wanted no part of the Dolphins? Why? Why would they? Why scrutinize and "handicap" a game if one team always proves they can't compete? D vs O, O vs D...game trends..
Nope. Overanalyzing, overthinking.
As long as the line holds steady, it's a blowout just like when the Bills dummied the Cowboys a few weeks back. Marketwise, it's a very similar pattern when the conventional wisdom going in believed the "Big Game" in Buffalo between "Two Heavyweights" would be "close" or "too close to call"....on paper. We know what happened - Cowboys be Cowboys, another pretender.
Just watch the line like a hawk IF the Bills clinch before kickoff... different dynamic if it bounces off that key 3 back toward Miami. Failing that, Bills win this game comfortably winning their division and the #2 seed! Whew!
