AC soccer for 2015

[achandicap]

COLOMBIA
Junior -.5 -101/Chico, 2 units
Ind. Medellin -.5 -137/Envigado, 5 units
Petrolero/Patriotas DRAW +212, 1 unit

I'm hesitant to make the 5 unit play on Medellin with that much juice, but I have units to spend. It just seems with both teams in the playoffs, Medellin's second-best is much better than Envigado's second best, and Medellin has much more to gain by winning.

Record: 181-200, +62.61

 

[Jles]

Hell of a day yesterday, AC. Keep up the good work.

 

[achandicap]

Thanks, Jles. [Handicapper Shill Voice] I'm 5-0 on my biggest 5-star plays! Up 40 units in the last five weeks! Winners! Winners! Winners! [/Handicapper Shill Voice] A very famous handicapper said the way to win is just break even 80 percent of the time and then win 20 percent of the time. Can't get too confident about this. BTW, I'll start making plays on Brazil after England and Italy are finished.

No plays today.

Record: 186-205, +68.43

 

[cowpokes]

Nice weekend AC, love the handicapper shill voice. Always reminds me of car dealership commercials, "everything must go now!" liquidation sales. Hope to continue success as you move into the Brazilian League plays.

 

[achandicap]

Plays will be sporadic at best the next week or so. I doubt I'll have time for this weekend, for sure. Got one today, however.

LIBERTADORES
Emelec -.5 +100/Tigres, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY
ITALY (Coppa Final)
Juventus/Lazio U2 +122, 1 unit

COLOMBIA (knockout, two-leg playoffs, Leg 1)
Tolima/Huila DRAW +245, 1 unit

Record: 187-205, +69.43

 

[achandicap]

Just one play today in Colombia, and nothing in Libertadores.

COLOMBIA
Millonarios -1 -102/Envigado, 1 unit

Record: 187-207, +67.43

 

[Jles]

Where ya been, AC? Any thoughts on Ireland matches today? Great job so far.

 

[achandicap]

Vacation, man, vacation. I might start playing Brazil this midweek. Ireland was in Cup play, anyway, and for the most part I don't play Cup matches because lineups are so unpredictable.

 

[mlmleads]

Looking forward to the bandwagon. You are a discipline Investor.. most of this forum is junkies.

 

[achandicap]

Thanks, mlm. That discipline comes from years of realizing lack of discipline leads to losing. That's also the reason I only focus on five leagues and assorted international tournaments. I don't think anyone can realistically follow more than that, at least not alone. And even that gets hectic at times. I got home from a week's vacation on Friday, but had no interest in trying to put together data to bet the last week of Italy or the Colombian semifinals. To rush into that would have been throwing money away. As it is, I still think I play too many matches, and have thought about ditching my one-unit plays entirely. They are 97-112 for +2.83 unit. 209 plays for three units isn't the greatest return on investment. And that doesn't count pushes. That would make the rest of my plays 91-94 for just under 67 units of profit.

Back tomorrow with Brazil and Colombia, and I may get involved in the Women's World Cup when it starts this weekend. Probably just future plays, however.

Record: 188-206, +69.43

 

[mlmleads]

I have to agree with you on the 1 units. That is a lot of variance for almost no reason. That said it might help shield from the books just how good you are. So I'd say it's a judgement call.

I like that you decided to be selective and you called it exactly right if you don't specialize in this world and stick to it there is only busting out at the end.

 

[achandicap]

Let's get back at it!

WEDNESDAY
BRAZIL
Figueirense +.5 +122/Atletico PR, 2 units
Vasco da Gama -.5 +151/Ponte Preta, 2 units
Gremio -.5 +105/Corinthians, 3 units

 

[pocketrockets]

GL Man

 

[achandicap]

First match starts at noon Pacific. Get it quick!

THURSDAY
Fluminense -.5 -139/Coritiba, 1 unit
Sport Recife -.5 -130/Goias, 2 units

Record: 189-208, +68.58

 

[achandicap]

FRIDAY
IRELAND
Limerick/Drogheda DRAW +236, 2 units

Maybe some World Cup futures later today.

Record: 191-208, +71.58

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
WORLD CUP FUTURE
USA to win World Cup +285, 2 units

BRAZIL
Cruziero +.5 +107/Atletico MG, 2 units
Vasco da Gama +.5 +114/Atletico PR, 2 units

Thought we'd get some "To Win Group" odds on the World Cup, but it's not to be. Some of the spreads are outrageous for soccer. Germany is -5.5 in their first match. Fox Sports is going to have some ugly games to deal with during the group stage.

Record: 191-209, +69.58

 

[achandicap]

FYI: Nothing on the Champs League final. My head roots for Juventus, but I think Barcelona will win. And the line of Barcelona -1 is perfect for a 2-1 finish and all bets returned.

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY
BRAZIL
Avai +.5 +114/Goias, 2 units

Record: 192-210, +69.72

 

[achandicap]

MONDAY
IRELAND
Shamrock -1 -126/Derry City, 1 unit

WORLD CUP
Australia/USA U3 +122, 1 unit

Record: 193-210, +72.00