Week 10 data added - not good news
Well, this was terrible news on the eve of what should be a great betting day.
Added week 10 data and it's not pretty. Teams with the yardage edge at half went 17-24-1 ATS in the 2H. The overall record for the data compiled is 116-107-8 (52%). 52% is not an acceptable number.
Adjust the range a bit, and we have better numbers. Teams in the differential range of 71-164 are 50-34-3 (60%). Minimum yardage was a disaster though. Had to narrow the range all the way to 132-165 to get the desired result, which was 33-17-1 (66%). Dogs were still the only somewhat profitable bet, going 40-33-2 (55%).
This killed me a bit, I don't know whether to just throw out this "system" and go back to the "feel" I preached in the opening post, or what.
There was some glimmers of hope when I ran some queries and combined data.
- When we had that yardage differential and minimum yardage met, teams were 13-5-1 ATS (72%).
- When the team was in the yardage differential range and was a dog, they went 14-8 ATS (63%).
- Like we saw in the NW game that got me very excited to take that line, when a team has a yardage edge in that range at halftime and is 6 point dogs or more in the 2H, they are 6-0!
- When a team has the yardage edge irregardless of the range, and is 5.5-9.5 point dogs, they are 15-4-1. This is like LSU tonight.
- 6+ point 2H favorites in the yardage range are 21-8-1.
These may be a ton of irrelevant statistics, I'm looking for trends but really am starting to see them disappear or grow weaker as I add data. All I know as of now is I won't play a game that isn't in the yardage range of 71-164, essentially what I stated a while ago. We can't play the better yard team blindly, we need the right "mix" where it's not too close but not too much of a blowout.
I will analyze plays that fit in the 71-164 range and decide if they should have additional units based on trends like those listed above. Lets get 'em tomorrow early starting at 11:00am EST with the Outback Bowl!
Well, this was terrible news on the eve of what should be a great betting day.
Added week 10 data and it's not pretty. Teams with the yardage edge at half went 17-24-1 ATS in the 2H. The overall record for the data compiled is 116-107-8 (52%). 52% is not an acceptable number.
Adjust the range a bit, and we have better numbers. Teams in the differential range of 71-164 are 50-34-3 (60%). Minimum yardage was a disaster though. Had to narrow the range all the way to 132-165 to get the desired result, which was 33-17-1 (66%). Dogs were still the only somewhat profitable bet, going 40-33-2 (55%).
This killed me a bit, I don't know whether to just throw out this "system" and go back to the "feel" I preached in the opening post, or what.
There was some glimmers of hope when I ran some queries and combined data.
- When we had that yardage differential and minimum yardage met, teams were 13-5-1 ATS (72%).
- When the team was in the yardage differential range and was a dog, they went 14-8 ATS (63%).
- Like we saw in the NW game that got me very excited to take that line, when a team has a yardage edge in that range at halftime and is 6 point dogs or more in the 2H, they are 6-0!
- When a team has the yardage edge irregardless of the range, and is 5.5-9.5 point dogs, they are 15-4-1. This is like LSU tonight.
- 6+ point 2H favorites in the yardage range are 21-8-1.
These may be a ton of irrelevant statistics, I'm looking for trends but really am starting to see them disappear or grow weaker as I add data. All I know as of now is I won't play a game that isn't in the yardage range of 71-164, essentially what I stated a while ago. We can't play the better yard team blindly, we need the right "mix" where it's not too close but not too much of a blowout.
I will analyze plays that fit in the 71-164 range and decide if they should have additional units based on trends like those listed above. Lets get 'em tomorrow early starting at 11:00am EST with the Outback Bowl!
Georgia has been napping all first half. They had 3 turnovers in their own territory (if you count the punt as a "turnover") and MSU only got 6 points. They're the better team out there. MSU has had the ball the entire game, and still done nothing with it. -6.5 is under our key number, and I think this is a gift. Georgia can so easily just hit Green deep in one play and it's a cover, they can just allow Moreono to break one and it's a cover.
Georgia - MSU
<table class="yspwhitebg" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"><td colspan="3" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Team Statistics</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"> <td width="64%" height="18"> </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Bulldogs</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Spartans </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> First Downs</td> <td>7</td> <td>8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Passing</td> <td>5</td> <td>5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushing</td> <td>2</td> <td>2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty</td> <td>0</td> <td>1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Third Down Efficiency</td> <td>1-5</td> <td>3-10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fourth Down Efficiency</td> <td>0-1</td> <td>0-1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> TOTAL NET YARDS</td> <td>117</td> <td>109 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Total Plays</td> <td>28</td> <td>39 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Gain Per Play</td> <td>4.2</td> <td>2.8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS RUSHING</td> <td>46</td> <td>13 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushes</td> <td>14</td> <td>22 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Per Rush</td> <td>3.3</td> <td>0.6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS PASSING</td> <td>71</td> <td>96 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Completions-Attempts</td> <td>6-14</td> <td>10-17 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Per Pass Play</td> <td>5.1</td> <td>5.6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Times Sacked</td> <td>1</td> <td>4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Lost to Sacks</td> <td>5</td> <td>26 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Had Intercepted</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PUNTS</td> <td>2</td> <td>2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Punt</td> <td>39.5</td> <td>31.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PENALTIES</td> <td>3</td> <td>3 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty Yards</td> <td>25</td> <td>20 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> FUMBLES</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fumbles Lost</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td height="7">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table class="yspwhitebg" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"><td colspan="3" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Team Statistics</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"> <td width="64%" height="18"> </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Bulldogs</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Spartans </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> First Downs</td> <td>7</td> <td>8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Passing</td> <td>5</td> <td>5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushing</td> <td>2</td> <td>2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty</td> <td>0</td> <td>1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Third Down Efficiency</td> <td>1-5</td> <td>3-10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fourth Down Efficiency</td> <td>0-1</td> <td>0-1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> TOTAL NET YARDS</td> <td>117</td> <td>109 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Total Plays</td> <td>28</td> <td>39 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Gain Per Play</td> <td>4.2</td> <td>2.8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS RUSHING</td> <td>46</td> <td>13 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushes</td> <td>14</td> <td>22 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Per Rush</td> <td>3.3</td> <td>0.6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS PASSING</td> <td>71</td> <td>96 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Completions-Attempts</td> <td>6-14</td> <td>10-17 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Per Pass Play</td> <td>5.1</td> <td>5.6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Times Sacked</td> <td>1</td> <td>4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Lost to Sacks</td> <td>5</td> <td>26 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Had Intercepted</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PUNTS</td> <td>2</td> <td>2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Punt</td> <td>39.5</td> <td>31.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PENALTIES</td> <td>3</td> <td>3 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty Yards</td> <td>25</td> <td>20 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> FUMBLES</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fumbles Lost</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td height="7">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Is this dogs before the game, or dogs at halftime?
Don't get discouraged, Hoos. What you just posted above is just as profitable. It just separates the suckers looking for an easy score from the real gamblers who will be willing to follow the games, put in the effort to break down the numbers, and place their hard earned money on the line and earn a profit.
Another thing you might want to look at if you have the time is Yards Per Point in the first half and see if their is a correlation between that number and 2H ATS cover. I lived in Vegas for 3 years before I moved back to Indy, and I know some of the professional gamblers utilized this statistic. I would do it, but I work 50 hours a week.
