2nd half bet system (bowls)

[ElTaino]

90% of the time Vegas doesn't put much thought into their lines at halftime. They rush them and get them out there. The lines are always close to the initial line of the game, usually divided by half, and using 1H statistics/information you can figure out who the winner already is. Many times you can hedge your bet and hope for a middle. I hit that middle when I took Boise State +3.5 and the 2H line was TCU -4.

I'll use this thread to post my 2H plays the rest of the bowl season. I'm a lousy handicapper (picked Hawaii initially, picked Troy initially, absolutely blow at NFL/NBA/NCAAB) but have always been able to get back my initial bets with the 2H plays. Never thought I would end up "tracking" plays on this forum.

I also bet small units. Really small. So small you'll be asking why I gamble. I have no job currently, thousands of dollars in student loans, and a maxed out credit card. I don't have money to lose and cash out whenever I get to a decent balance.

thanks for sharing (late to the conversation with the damn holidays) just so you know, jobs are overrated. all you will do is pay off the student loans, bet larger units (with similar results), get another credit card and still dine nightly on soup and ramen. im living proof :nohead:

 

[theycallmedug]

rice +2.5....i feel like its to easy...should i not load up on it?

 

[jblonghorn]

Yeah, why the hell isn't Rice a play? Yardage leader and a dog?

 

[MikeOxbig]

I know OKST and Oregon are tied yardage wise, but minus that flee flicker and that 60 yard run for Oregon (approx. a fluke 100 yards on 2 plays), the OKST/Oregon game falls right in our equation. I'm playing OKST +3 as a half unit for the action. Hopefully somebody picks up for OKST's Dez Bryant after he limped off the field tho...

 

[MikeOxbig]

Looks like my rationale was off. Oh well...only a half unit to solidify my faith in the system...one I hope to make back soon.

There will be plenty of games to wager on that fall within 2 and 3 unit plays...looking forward to the next few days...

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Amazing, since I posted this thread (which had a 6-1 record), the team with the yardage edge 2-6-2!

Listen to the "no plays", none of them have been winners!

With an 0-3 day for teams with the yardage edge at halftime, we need to remember ONLY TO PLAY WHEN THE YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL IS IN OUR 71-166 RANGE.

 

[wildchild]

Rice would have been a winner.

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

Amazing, since I posted this thread (which had a 6-1 record), the team with the yardage edge 2-6-2!

Listen to the "no plays", none of them have been winners!

With an 0-3 day for teams with the yardage edge at halftime, we need to remember ONLY TO PLAY WHEN THE YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL IS IN OUR 71-166 RANGE.

Imo, once you show the rest of the world a successful system, it seems to just fall apart, ive seen this happen year after year!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Rice would have been a winner.

It depends on where you took the spread. I'm showing Rice as a 2.5 point favorite on some sites, and 2.5 point dogs on other sites.

 

[wildchild]

Hopefully the system gets back on track today. Best of luck today and Happy Holidays.

 

[swirv]

Yeah, why the hell isn't Rice a play? Yardage leader and a dog?

Agreed I had to take them based on the fact they were getting points. I know the yardage was more, and I think when it was that much the outcome was not as good % wise. But I doubt in most of those instances the teams were getting points. I got them at +2

 

[jakey1deuce]

it looks like Air Force should be a play correct?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

We have 47 seconds left, but this is going to be a play.

Air Force (probably going to be +3) 3 units.

 

[bookiebanger]

We have 47 seconds left, but this is going to be a play.

Air Force (probably going to be +3) 3 units.

Does this play qualify in the 2* system or is this a plane jane play?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

This qualifies in the 3 unit system. They fit minimum yardage, yardage differential, and they're a dog. These teams are 10-2 ATS in the 2nd half.

 

[tbonestk]

Houston - Air Force


<table class="yspwhitebg" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"><td colspan="3" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Team Statistics</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"> <td width="64%" height="18"> </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Cougars</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Falcons </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> First Downs</td> <td>10</td> <td>15 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Passing</td> <td>4</td> <td>4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushing</td> <td>6</td> <td>11 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Third Down Efficiency</td> <td>3-7</td> <td>7-11 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fourth Down Efficiency</td> <td>0-0</td> <td>0-1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> TOTAL NET YARDS</td> <td>162</td> <td>254 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Total Plays</td> <td>32</td> <td>46 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Gain Per Play</td> <td>5.1</td> <td>5.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS RUSHING</td> <td>50</td> <td>167 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushes</td> <td>14</td> <td>37 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Per Rush</td> <td>3.6</td> <td>4.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS PASSING</td> <td>112</td> <td>87 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Completions-Attempts</td> <td>9-18</td> <td>5-9 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Per Pass Play</td> <td>6.2</td> <td>9.7 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Times Sacked</td> <td>1</td> <td>1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Lost to Sacks</td> <td>9</td> <td>7 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Had Intercepted</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PUNTS</td> <td>3</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Punt</td> <td>45.7</td> <td>0.0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PENALTIES</td> <td>3</td> <td>1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty Yards</td> <td>20</td> <td>1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> FUMBLES</td> <td>1</td> <td>2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fumbles Lost</td> <td>1</td> <td>2 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td height="7">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Official play:

Air Force +3.5 (3 units) Sportsbook.com

 

[bookiebanger]

Got it at 3.5 at Bodog as well.

 

[Mistermj]

This qualifies in the 3 unit system. They fit minimum yardage, yardage differential, and they're a dog. These teams are 10-2 ATS in the 2nd half.

Great work here letsgohoosiers. I wonder why you make it so hard on yourself adding up the drive charts?

Yahoo gives you the net yards stats immediately as tbonestk has been posting.

Thanks for all the work.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Great work here letsgohoosiers. I wonder why you make it so hard on yourself adding up the drive charts?

Yahoo gives you the net yards stats immediately as tbonestk has been posting.

Thanks for all the work.

Yahoo does it, ESPN does it, CBS Sportsline does it, I know. The problem isn't finding the halftime stats of the games we're watching, that's easy. It's getting the halftime stats of the games of previous weeks and the only way I've found on how to do that is by adding up the drive charts.

I've been trying to backtrack the system to past weeks, to get data to understand the trends. When you look back, they don't have the halftime stats anywhere, which is why it takes so long to add 50 games.