2nd half bet system (bowls)

[MikeOxbig]

Not to go all Donovan McNabb here, but I have an overtime rule question:

Is there a way Mizzou can score 7 in OT and then intercept a NW pass and run it back for a pick 6 for the backdoor 2H coverfukk...or in the scenario above, once the defense possesses the ball, isn't the game over and no more points can be scored...? I thought this very type of scenario screwed some gamblers a few years ago...

**PS, I completed this post during the OT coin flip, but will wait to post until after the game is over to avoid the jinx**

****And it almost happened too...****

 

[thefriedone]

Game over. 7 point margin. We all win.

 

[JROD2007]

It is over once the defense takes control.

 

[LuvParlays]

What is up with the negativity in here? Jeebus...

 

[Marco]

Not to go all Donovan McNabb here, but I have an overtime rule question:

Is there a way Mizzou can score 7 in OT and then intercept a NW pass and run it back for a pick 6 for the backdoor 2H coverfukk...or in the scenario above, once the defense possesses the ball, isn't the game over and no more points can be scored...? I thought this very type of scenario screwed some gamblers a few years ago...

**PS, I completed this post during the OT coin flip, but will wait to post until after the game is over to avoid the jinx**

****And it almost happened too...****

Yes, and it almost could have, if Mizzu would have picked up that fumble by the NW quarterback and ran it back the other 68 yards for the touchdown. They wouldn't kick the extra point, and they'd win the game by 13. Lucky for the NW bettors that NW got back on the ball and forced 4th and goal from the 32.

And that game you're referring to, was about 10 years ago, I was on the lucky side of that game, it was a west coast matchup with UCLA vs ???....I had the favorite at -11.5, game went overtime and I gave up on it. My team scored first and then ran back a fumble for the 13 point win.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

HOW TO USE THIS "SYSTEM"

Step 1: Find the yardage differential at halftime. If it is below 63 or above 166, it is a no play. If it is in that "range", the game is eligible.

Step 2: Check the yardage of the team with the fewer yards. If it is between 75 and 166, play the game. These teams win 87% of the time (26-5 the last 5 weeks).

All posted plays will follow this system from now on. They will be 2 unit plays as they are stronger plays than those that have been posted.

I've been researching other trends, I've been looking at other factors, but all they do is end up around 60% at best when not influenced by these factors.

We won tonight, but still behind in bowl season. Record is 2-3 (-1.4 units). We still got work to do.

 

[MikeOxbig]

Yes, and it almost could have, if Mizzu would have picked up that fumble by the NW quarterback and ran it back the other 68 yards for the touchdown. They wouldn't kick the extra point, and they'd win the game by 13. Lucky for the NW bettors that NW got back on the ball and forced 4th and goal from the 32.

And that game you're referring to, was about 10 years ago, I was on the lucky side of that game, it was a west coast matchup with UCLA vs ???....I had the favorite at -11.5, game went overtime and I gave up on it. My team scored first and then ran back a fumble for the 13 point win.

That's not the game I was thinking of, and I don't think that is the case now. The game I was thinking of was like an SEC or a Big 12 OT game a few years back where the defense WOULD HAVE SCORED on a Pick 6 in OT to bust a double digit cover and the refs blew the play dead once the turnover was secured causing many gamblers who had the favorite to melt the fukk down...

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Week 11 data!!! And an update!

Entered in week 11 data! Took only about an hour this time, guess I am getting quicker at it.

System overall record for simply taking the team with the better yardage is 97-79-7 (55%). That's getting low. Which is why we CAN'T simply take the team with better yardage every time and hope to make money.

The maximum value "range" we want to get in changed only in the yardage differential, it's now up to 71-166 (used to be 65-166). Games in this range are a very solid 43-22-2 (66%). These are our 1 unit plays!

How do we up the units? Use minimum yardage! If the team who is being out-gained is between 75 and 166 yards, we add a unit. When the opponent has these yardage statistics, the yardage leader at halftime covers 59% of the time. Combine the yardage differential (step 1) with the minimum yardage (step 2) and we have a record of 29-10-2 (74%). This warrants an upgrade to 3 units.

Dogs still fared well. We are starting to see no discrepancy between how big of a dog they are, so we simply classify as a dog, favorite, or even. Dogs are 33-23-2 when they have the yardage edge at halftime (59%). Combine the yardage differential (step 1) with the minimum yardage (step 2) with the dogs (step 3) and we have a 10-2 record (83%). This warrants an upgrade to 3 units.

Alright, so when we get to halftime tomorrow, and you see the yardage differential, ask yourself these questions to determine whether or not it is a play:

STEP BY STEP GUIDE

1) Is the differential between 71-166 yards?
YES = continue to next step
NO = don't play on the game

2) Is the team being out-gained between 75-166 yards?
YES = continue to next step
NO = play 1 unit on the team with the yardage edge

3) Is the team with the yardage edge at half a 2H underdog?
YES = play 3 units on the team with the yardage edge
NO = play 2 units on the team with the yardage edge

Doing this system, we would have been up 62.6 units over the past 6 weeks!

Lets get 'em tomorrow! 3 games on deck.

 

[JoltinJoe]

great post hoosiers! keep it up!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

#2 should read "Does the team who is trailing in yardage have between 75-166 yards?"

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Maryland-Nevada

NO PLAY

 

[MikeOxbig]

Hoos,

Just out of curiousity, do you have/remember the half time yardage stats? I was working and couldn't get them on my phone in time.

Also, I know it was asked before, but I don't remember seeing an answer...is there a website you use to get past first half yardage stats?

 

[Tkeller]

Please Elaborate

First, a big thanks and congratulations on this great piece of work and alsoyour patience with some of the folks here. It is very much appreciated.

At one point you had some rules ragarding the type of yardage (e.g. offensive vs defensive, punt return, etc). I have printed out your rules and would like to be sure that I add this criteria as well.

Thanks again!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Hoos,

Just out of curiousity, do you have/remember the half time yardage stats? I was working and couldn't get them on my phone in time.

Also, I know it was asked before, but I don't remember seeing an answer...is there a website you use to get past first half yardage stats?

The stats for Nevada-Maryland was 248-209 for Maryland. It was a no play because it wasn't in the yardage differential range we look for, and a good no play as Nevada covered the 2H spread.

I don't have a site I use for the 2H stats, I go to the "Drive Chart" on ESPN.com for all the games, add up the drive, and write the number in which is why it takes so long to compile data.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

First, a big thanks and congratulations on this great piece of work and alsoyour patience with some of the folks here. It is very much appreciated.

At one point you had some rules ragarding the type of yardage (e.g. offensive vs defensive, punt return, etc). I have printed out your rules and would like to be sure that I add this criteria as well.

Thanks again!

Remember to only include Offensive yards. Don't do INT return yards, don't do fumble return yards, kick return yards, punt return yards. Just Passing Yards and Rushing yards added up.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Oregon-Oklahoma State
NO PLAY (yardage differential less than 71)

Western Mich-Rice
NO PLAY (yardage differential more than 166)

 

[ACEWHO]

The time of possession is absolutely ridiculous in favor of Rice and Ok St. it's worth dropping a load on!!!

 

[tbonestk]

Rice vs WMU


<table class="yspwhitebg" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"><td colspan="3" class="ysptblhdr" height="18">Team Statistics</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"> <td width="64%" height="18"> </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Broncos</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Owls </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> First Downs</td> <td>6</td> <td>16 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Passing</td> <td>4</td> <td>8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushing</td> <td>2</td> <td>6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty</td> <td>0</td> <td>2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Third Down Efficiency</td> <td>1-7</td> <td>9-12 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fourth Down Efficiency</td> <td>1-1</td> <td>0-0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> TOTAL NET YARDS</td> <td>89</td> <td>283 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Total Plays</td> <td>28</td> <td>46 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Gain Per Play</td> <td>3.2</td> <td>6.2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS RUSHING</td> <td>21</td> <td>113 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushes</td> <td>6</td> <td>20 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Per Rush</td> <td>3.5</td> <td>5.7 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS PASSING</td> <td>68</td> <td>170 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Completions-Attempts</td> <td>10-22</td> <td>16-26 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Per Pass Play</td> <td>3.1</td> <td>6.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Times Sacked</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Lost to Sacks</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Had Intercepted</td> <td>2</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PUNTS</td> <td>2</td> <td>1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Punt</td> <td>34.0</td> <td>13.0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PENALTIES</td> <td>4</td> <td>7 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty Yards</td> <td>48</td> <td>55 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> FUMBLES</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fumbles Lost</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td height="7">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[sparticus]

lol

 

[tbonestk]

DUCKS vs OK St.


<table class="yspwhitebg" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"><td colspan="3" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Team Statistics</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"> <td width="64%" height="18"> </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Cowboys</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="18%">Ducks </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> First Downs</td> <td>17</td> <td>8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Passing</td> <td>10</td> <td>4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushing</td> <td>6</td> <td>4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Third Down Efficiency</td> <td>3-7</td> <td>2-7 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fourth Down Efficiency</td> <td>1-2</td> <td>1-2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> TOTAL NET YARDS</td> <td>249</td> <td>249 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Total Plays</td> <td>45</td> <td>30 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Gain Per Play</td> <td>5.5</td> <td>8.3 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS RUSHING</td> <td>70</td> <td>113 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Rushes</td> <td>23</td> <td>12 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Per Rush</td> <td>3.0</td> <td>9.4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> NET YARDS PASSING</td> <td>179</td> <td>136 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Completions-Attempts</td> <td>15-22</td> <td>8-18 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Per Pass Play</td> <td>8.1</td> <td>7.6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Times Sacked</td> <td>0</td> <td>1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Yards Lost to Sacks</td> <td>0</td> <td>10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Had Intercepted</td> <td>1</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PUNTS</td> <td>0</td> <td>1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Average Punt</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>35.0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> PENALTIES</td> <td>3</td> <td>1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Penalty Yards</td> <td>15</td> <td>15 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> FUMBLES</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td class="first" align="left"> Fumbles Lost</td> <td>0</td> <td>0 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td height="7">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>