2015 NCAA Football Systems

rolltide · Dec 15, 2015

you can also push it to playing against 4 SUATS and get good results and add in one more fit:

streak >= 4 and ats streak >= 4 and op:margin < 4 and game type = BG and season > 1988

SU:	7-28-0 (-12.03, 20.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	7-28-0 (-10.96, 20.0%)	avg line: 1.1	+6: 13-20-2 (39.4%)	-6: 4-31-0 (11.4%)	+10: 18-17-0 (51.4%)	-10: 3-32-0 (8.6%)
O/U:	6-4-0 (2.30, 60.0%)	avg total: 57.7	+6: 6-4-0 (60.0%)	-6: 7-2-1 (77.8%)	+10: 5-5-0 (50.0%)	-10: 8-2-0 (80.0%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	34.2	129.3	34.5	20.9	224.7	2.0	3.4	7.3	7.2	6.3	21.5
Opp	39.3	175.9	35.5	21.0	270.8	1.2	9.1	9.8	7.1	9.8	33.5

Date	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total	ot
Dec 22, 2015	Tuesday	17	2015	AKRON	UTST	neutral	6.5	48.5	0
Dec 19, 2015	Saturday	16	2015	GAST	SJST	neutral	3.0	56.0	0
Dec 19, 2015	Saturday	16	2015	AKST	LTCH	neutral	2.0	67.0

but bring the opponent off a game where they weren't a big dog and you got yourself a 21-1

streak >= 4 and ats streak >= 4 and op:margin < 4 and game type = BG and season > 1988 and op:line < 5

SU:	1-21-0 (-13.32, 4.5%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	1-21-0 (-12.25, 4.5%)	avg line: 1.1	+6: 7-13-2 (35.0%)	-6: 1-21-0 (4.5%)	+10: 12-10-0 (54.5%)	-10: 0-22-0 (0.0%)
O/U:	5-2-0 (6.43, 71.4%)	avg total: 54.4	+6: 5-2-0 (71.4%)	-6: 5-1-1 (83.3%)	+10: 4-3-0 (57.1%)	-10: 6-1-0 (85.7%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	32.3	133.1	37.1	21.6	234.9	2.1	4.9	6.4	6.9	7.0	22.3
Opp	40.1	171.3	34.4	20.9	279.4	1.3	8.0	10.1	7.3	10.3	35.6

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Dec 22, 2015		Tuesday	17	2015	AKRON	UTST	neutral						6.5	48.5									0
Dec 19, 2015		Saturday	16	2015	AKST	LTCH	neutral						2.0	67.0

rolltide · Dec 15, 2015

importance or rushing game in bowls....

Since Jan 1 2009 favs of 3 or more that outrushed their opponent are 76-12 SU with 68 covers.

In the 9 years rushing yards have been tracked in the database a dog or pk that outrushes the fav are 78-63 SU with 104-35-2 ATS record

In last 6 years if you were to bet on the better rushing team in the bowl game you would be 150-59 SU, 154-52-3 ATS .... if this same team came into the game with the lower rushing yards/game it jumps to 59-14 SU, 61-11-1 ATS. So find the YTD lesser rushing team that will outrush the opponent in the bowl came and you'll cover 6 out of 7 times.

TheComputerGroup · Dec 15, 2015

rolltide said:
importance or rushing game in bowls....

Since Jan 1 2009 favs of 3 or more that outrushed their opponent are 76-12 SU with 68 covers.

In the 9 years rushing yards have been tracked in the database a dog or pk that outrushes the fav are 78-63 SU with 104-35-2 ATS record

In last 6 years if you were to bet on the better rushing team in the bowl game you would be 150-59 SU, 154-52-3 ATS .... if this same team came into the game with the lower rushing yards/game it jumps to 59-14 SU, 61-11-1 ATS. So find the YTD lesser rushing team that will outrush the opponent in the bowl came and you'll cover 6 out of 7 times.

Okay, so what I think you're saying is, the team with less rushes per game but more yards per game? Or the team that has less rushing yards per game?

ECC · Dec 15, 2015

I see Rolltides trends/systems a lot and don't comprehend much of the SDQL language (I wish I had the time to attempt to understand all the abbreviations) anyway thanks for always posting these ... it's gotta take a lot of time (I would assume)

I don't know if there is anyway to incorporate this but I went back last year's bowl games using closing lines and checked on Underdogs of 6.5 points or less (basically less than a TD) and the outcome has favored the underdog at a high rate. But that was only one year and I don't have much of a data base to back track. Is there anyway you could check back for last 5, 10 years? If not that's ok too.

A couple of other trends I looked for was when the opening line shows one favorite but the favorites change by closing line. The out come of the ORIGINAL favorite was pretty good but only a couple games.

the last one I remember looking at was FAVs at closing lines of 10+

Thanks again.

rolltide · Dec 15, 2015

ECC said:
Underdogs of 6.5 points or less (basically less than a TD) and the outcome has favored the underdog at a high rate. But that was only one year and I don't have much of a data base to back track. Is there anyway you could check back for last 5, 10 years? If not that's ok too.

by season: (left column is ats)

game type = BG and D and line <=6.5 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	season = 2015
25	15-10-0 (-0.10, 60.0%)	3.5	13-11-1 (5.48, 54.2%)	57.3	14-11-0 (-3.56, 56.0%)	season = 2014
18	8-10-0 (-3.50, 44.4%)	3.6	7-11-0 (-1.89, 38.9%)	57.4	8-10-0 (-7.06, 44.4%)	season = 2013
17	8-8-1 (1.88, 50.0%)	3.8	5-11-1 (-6.24, 31.2%)	57.2	7-10-0 (-1.94, 41.2%)	season = 2012
26	13-13-0 (1.33, 50.0%)	2.9	12-14-0 (-0.42, 46.2%)	53.5	10-16-0 (-1.62, 38.5%)	season = 2011
22	8-14-0 (-5.02, 36.4%)	3.0	10-12-0 (-6.55, 45.5%)	55.2	7-15-0 (-8.05, 31.8%)	season = 2010
21	12-7-2 (3.76, 63.2%)	3.6	9-12-0 (-3.10, 42.9%)	51.6	12-9-0 (0.14, 57.1%)	season = 2009
24	13-11-0 (-0.52, 54.2%)	3.1	9-15-0 (-4.98, 37.5%)	55.1	10-14-0 (-3.67, 41.7%)	season = 2008
22	8-14-0 (-4.20, 36.4%)	4.0	8-13-1 (-4.93, 38.1%)	56.2	5-17-0 (-8.18, 22.7%)	season = 2007
20	11-9-0 (0.33, 55.0%)	3.5	10-10-0 (0.78, 50.0%)	48.8	7-13-0 (-3.15, 35.0%)	season = 2006
16	8-8-0 (-1.09, 50.0%)	3.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	7-9-0 (-4.56, 43.8%)	season = 2005
20	11-9-0 (1.10, 55.0%)	3.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	10-10-0 (-2.35, 50.0%)	season = 2004
16	5-11-0 (-4.34, 31.2%)	3.1	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	4-12-0 (-7.44, 25.0%)	season = 2003
13	5-8-0 (-4.19, 38.5%)	3.7	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	5-8-0 (-7.92, 38.5%)	season = 2002
19	10-9-0 (1.55, 52.6%)	3.7	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	8-11-0 (-2.16, 42.1%)	season = 2001
15	10-5-0 (2.13, 66.7%)	2.8	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	9-6-0 (-0.67, 60.0%)	season = 2000
18	13-5-0 (7.31, 72.2%)	3.8	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	12-6-0 (3.50, 66.7%)	season = 1999
12	6-6-0 (-3.12, 50.0%)	4.2	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	4-8-0 (-7.33, 33.3%)	season = 1998
11	0-10-1 (-10.77, 0.0%)	3.8	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-11-0 (-14.55, 0.0%)	season = 1997
11	7-4-0 (8.91, 63.6%)	4.2	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	5-6-0 (4.73, 45.5%)	season = 1996
14	7-7-0 (3.21, 50.0%)	4.1	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	7-7-0 (-0.86, 50.0%)	season = 1995
11	4-7-0 (-5.86, 36.4%)	3.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	4-7-0 (-9.36, 36.4%)	season = 1994
11	4-7-0 (-6.14, 36.4%)	4.4	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	3-8-0 (-10.55, 27.3%)	season = 1993
11	6-5-0 (0.00, 54.5%)	2.9	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	6-5-0 (-2.91, 54.5%)	season = 1992
12	6-6-0 (3.75, 50.0%)	3.8	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	4-7-1 (-0.08, 36.4%)	season = 1991
8	5-3-0 (1.62, 62.5%)	2.9	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	3-4-1 (-1.25, 42.9%)	season = 1990
12	5-7-0 (-1.21, 41.7%)	3.1	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	5-7-0 (-4.33, 41.7%)	season = 1989
14	5-9-0 (-4.82, 35.7%)	3.8	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	4-10-0 (-8.64, 28.6%)	season = 1988
13	11-2-0 (5.04, 84.6%)	3.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	7-5-1 (1.54, 58.3%)	season = 1987
11	5-6-0 (0.09, 45.5%)	3.7	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	4-7-0 (-3.64, 36.4%)	season = 1986
12	9-3-0 (4.62, 75.0%)	3.7	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	5-6-1 (0.92, 45.5%)	season = 1985
14	9-5-0 (3.54, 64.3%)	3.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	8-5-1 (0.00, 61.5%)	season = 1984
11	5-6-0 (3.50, 45.5%)	3.0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	4-7-0 (0.45, 36.4%)	season = 1983
12	2-8-2 (-3.46, 20.0%)	3.3	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	2-10-0 (-6.75, 16.7%)	season = 1982
12	8-4-0 (1.54, 66.7%)	3.1	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	6-6-0 (-1.58, 50.0%)	season = 1981
9	5-4-0 (-1.22, 55.6%)	3.3	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	4-5-0 (-4.56, 44.4%)	season = 1980

Showing 1 to 36 of 36 entries

favs of 10+ by season (ats left column)

game type = BG and F and line <= -10 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	season = 2015
2	2-0-0 (7.50, 100.0%)	-12.0	1-1-0 (-0.25, 50.0%)	46.8	2-0-0 (19.50, 100.0%)	season = 2014
8	2-6-0 (-11.75, 25.0%)	-14.5	3-5-0 (1.44, 37.5%)	65.3	5-3-0 (2.75, 62.5%)	season = 2013
8	5-3-0 (1.00, 62.5%)	-13.1	5-3-0 (5.25, 62.5%)	55.9	6-2-0 (14.12, 75.0%)	season = 2012
3	3-0-0 (7.50, 100.0%)	-12.5	1-2-0 (-4.33, 33.3%)	64.3	3-0-0 (20.00, 100.0%)	season = 2011
6	4-2-0 (0.67, 66.7%)	-13.0	4-2-0 (1.75, 66.7%)	56.9	4-2-0 (13.67, 66.7%)	season = 2010
3	1-2-0 (-14.67, 33.3%)	-11.7	2-1-0 (2.67, 66.7%)	61.7	1-2-0 (-3.00, 33.3%)	season = 2009
2	1-1-0 (4.50, 50.0%)	-12.5	0-1-1 (-6.50, 0.0%)	60.5	2-0-0 (17.00, 100.0%)	season = 2008
5	2-3-0 (-0.40, 40.0%)	-11.4	4-1-0 (11.70, 80.0%)	59.3	3-2-0 (11.00, 60.0%)	season = 2007
4	2-2-0 (-1.75, 50.0%)	-10.8	1-3-0 (-0.75, 25.0%)	51.2	3-1-0 (9.00, 75.0%)	season = 2006
4	0-4-0 (-10.62, 0.0%)	-11.4	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	2-2-0 (0.75, 50.0%)	season = 2005
5	2-3-0 (-6.40, 40.0%)	-11.8	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	3-2-0 (5.40, 60.0%)	season = 2004
5	3-2-0 (5.00, 60.0%)	-11.8	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	5-0-0 (16.80, 100.0%)	season = 2003
8	3-4-1 (-5.19, 42.9%)	-12.2	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	6-2-0 (7.00, 75.0%)	season = 2002
4	2-2-0 (4.50, 50.0%)	-12.8	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	4-0-0 (17.25, 100.0%)	season = 2001
2	1-1-0 (6.75, 50.0%)	-12.2	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-1-0 (19.00, 50.0%)	season = 2000
2	0-2-0 (-6.25, 0.0%)	-12.2	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	2-0-0 (6.00, 100.0%)	season = 1999
4	0-4-0 (-16.88, 0.0%)	-14.6	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-3-0 (-2.25, 25.0%)	season = 1998
5	4-1-0 (11.30, 80.0%)	-12.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	5-0-0 (23.80, 100.0%)	season = 1997
2	1-1-0 (0.25, 50.0%)	-16.2	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	2-0-0 (16.50, 100.0%)	season = 1996
1	0-1-0 (-5.50, 0.0%)	-10.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-0-0 (5.00, 100.0%)	season = 1995
2	1-0-1 (0.50, 100.0%)	-13.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	2-0-0 (14.00, 100.0%)	season = 1994
6	2-4-0 (-2.75, 33.3%)	-13.9	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	5-1-0 (11.17, 83.3%)	season = 1993
1	1-0-0 (2.50, 100.0%)	-10.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-0-0 (13.00, 100.0%)	season = 1992
1	0-1-0 (-22.00, 0.0%)	-15.0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-1-0 (-7.00, 0.0%)	season = 1991
4	3-1-0 (8.75, 75.0%)	-13.0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	3-1-0 (21.75, 75.0%)	season = 1990
1	0-1-0 (-11.50, 0.0%)	-14.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-0-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	season = 1989
1	0-1-0 (-13.00, 0.0%)	-14.0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-0-0 (1.00, 100.0%)	season = 1988
3	2-0-1 (8.00, 100.0%)	-15.0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	3-0-0 (23.00, 100.0%)	season = 1986
2	0-2-0 (-8.75, 0.0%)	-10.2	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-1-0 (1.50, 50.0%)	season = 1983
2	0-2-0 (-21.25, 0.0%)	-12.8	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	1-1-0 (-8.50, 50.0%)	season = 1981
2	2-0-0 (9.50, 100.0%)	-11.5	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	2-0-0 (21.00, 100.0%)	season = 1980

Showing 1 to 32 of 32 entries

TheComputerGroup · Dec 16, 2015

Play under in a Bowl game if the line is -3 to -6.5 and the total is 45 to 65.5. Since 12/26/11 these are 20-1 to the UNDER.

Can you verify this system Roll? I will post the plays next......

TheComputerGroup · Dec 16, 2015

Here are the games which apply :

Dec 19, 2015 Saturday 16 2015 SJST GAST

Dec 22, 2015 Tuesday 17 2015 UTST AKRON

Dec 24, 2015 Thursday 17 2015 WMCH MTEN

Dec 26, 2015 Saturday 17 2015 UCLA NEB

Dec 26, 2015 Saturday 17 2015 WAST MIAF

Dec 28, 2015 Monday 17 2015 MIN CMCH

Dec 28, 2015 Monday 17 2015 NAVY PIT

Dec 29, 2015 Tuesday 18 2015 COST NEV

Dec 30, 2015 Wednesday 18 2015 MSST NCST

Dec 30, 2015 Wednesday 18 2015 USC WIS

rolltide · Dec 16, 2015

The Computer Group said:
Play under in a Bowl game if the line is -3 to -6.5 and the total is 45 to 65.5. Since 12/26/11 these are 20-1 to the UNDER.

Can you verify this system Roll? I will post the plays next......

date >= 20111226 and game type = BG and F and -6.5 <= line <= -3.5 and 45 <= total <= 65.5

SU:	18-10-0 (6.71, 64.3%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	16-11-1 (1.89, 59.3%)	avg line: -4.8	+6: 19-8-1 (70.4%)	-6: 13-15-0 (46.4%)	+10: 24-4-0 (85.7%)	-10: 12-16-0 (42.9%)
O/U:	6-21-1 (-5.04, 22.2%)	avg total: 54.3	+6: 5-23-0 (17.9%)	-6: 15-13-0 (53.6%)	+10: 4-24-0 (14.3%)	-10: 18-9-1 (66.7%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	36.4	156.6	30.4	19.1	217.6	1.4	6.9	8.2	5.3	7.5	28.0
Opp	36.3	129.9	34.3	19.9	234.0	1.8	6.0	4.8	4.7	5.7	21.3

Date	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total	ot
Jan 01, 2016	Friday	18	2015	OHST	NOTD	neutral	-6.5	53.5	0
Jan 01, 2016	Friday	18	2015	STAN	IOWA	neutral	-6.5	53.0	0
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	MSST	NCST	neutral	-5.5	59.0	0
Dec 28, 2015	Monday	17	2015	MIN	CMCH	neutral	-5.5	49.5	0
Dec 28, 2015	Monday	17	2015	NAVY	PIT	home	-3.5	56.0	0
Dec 26, 2015	Saturday	17	2015	UCLA	NEB	neutral	-3.5	61.0	0
Dec 22, 2015	Tuesday	17	2015	UTST	AKRON	neutral	-6.5	48.5

you can move the #'s around a bit and pull more games in at same %:

date >= 20111226 and game type = BG and F and -2.5 > line > -7 and 66.5 > total > 44

SU:	25-10-0 (8.49, 71.4%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	23-11-1 (3.93, 67.6%)	avg line: -4.6	+6: 26-8-1 (76.5%)	-6: 18-17-0 (51.4%)	+10: 31-4-0 (88.6%)	-10: 16-19-0 (45.7%)
O/U:	7-27-1 (-5.43, 20.6%)	avg total: 54.0	+6: 5-30-0 (14.3%)	-6: 18-17-0 (51.4%)	+10: 4-31-0 (11.4%)	-10: 22-12-1 (64.7%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	38.0	160.9	30.7	19.2	215.9	1.2	7.3	8.2	5.3	7.6	28.5
Opp	36.6	125.4	32.6	18.4	218.1	1.8	5.6	4.8	3.9	5.6	20.0

Date	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total	ot
Jan 01, 2016	Friday	18	2015	OHST	NOTD	neutral	-6.5	53.5	0
Jan 01, 2016	Friday	18	2015	STAN	IOWA	neutral	-6.5	53.0	0
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	MSST	NCST	neutral	-5.5	59.0	0
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	USC	WIS	neutral	-3.0	50.5	0
Dec 29, 2015	Tuesday	18	2015	COST	NEV	neutral	-3.0	56.0	0
Dec 28, 2015	Monday	17	2015	MIN	CMCH	neutral	-5.5	49.5	0
Dec 28, 2015	Monday	17	2015	NAVY	PIT	home	-3.5	56.0	0
Dec 26, 2015	Saturday	17	2015	UCLA	NEB	neutral	-3.5	61.0	0
Dec 26, 2015	Saturday	17	2015	WAST	MIAF	neutral	-3.0	62.5	0
Dec 24, 2015	Thursday	17	2015	WMCH	MTEN	neutral	-3.0	63.5	0
Dec 22, 2015	Tuesday	17	2015	UTST	AKRON	neutral	-6.5	48.5	0
Dec 19, 2015	Saturday	16	2015	SJST	GAST	neutral	-3.0	56.0

TheComputerGroup · Dec 16, 2015

Thanks Roll......so 21-6 system instead of 20-1 that was posted, OK, thanks! Still pretty good I guess......

TheComputerGroup · Dec 16, 2015

rolltide said:
date >= 20111226 and game type = BG and F and -6.5 <= line <= -3.5 and 45 <= total <= 65.5

SU: 18-10-0 (6.71, 64.3%) Teaser Records
ATS: 16-11-1 (1.89, 59.3%) avg line: -4.8 +6: 19-8-1 (70.4%) -6: 13-15-0 (46.4%) +10: 24-4-0 (85.7%) -10: 12-16-0 (42.9%)
O/U: 6-21-1 (-5.04, 22.2%) avg total: 54.3 +6: 5-23-0 (17.9%) -6: 15-13-0 (53.6%) +10: 4-24-0 (14.3%) -10: 18-9-1 (66.7%)

Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 36.4 156.6 30.4 19.1 217.6 1.4 6.9 8.2 5.3 7.5 28.0
Opp 36.3 129.9 34.3 19.9 234.0 1.8 6.0 4.8 4.7 5.7 21.3

Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Jan 01, 2016 Friday 18 2015 OHST NOTD neutral -6.5 53.5 0
Jan 01, 2016 Friday 18 2015 STAN IOWA neutral -6.5 53.0 0
Dec 30, 2015 Wednesday 18 2015 MSST NCST neutral -5.5 59.0 0
Dec 28, 2015 Monday 17 2015 MIN CMCH neutral -5.5 49.5 0
Dec 28, 2015 Monday 17 2015 NAVY PIT home -3.5 56.0 0
Dec 26, 2015 Saturday 17 2015 UCLA NEB neutral -3.5 61.0 0
Dec 22, 2015 Tuesday 17 2015 UTST AKRON neutral -6.5 48.5

you can move the #'s around a bit and pull more games in at same %:

date >= 20111226 and game type = BG and F and -2.5 > line > -7 and 66.5 > total > 44

SU: 25-10-0 (8.49, 71.4%) Teaser Records
ATS: 23-11-1 (3.93, 67.6%) avg line: -4.6 +6: 26-8-1 (76.5%) -6: 18-17-0 (51.4%) +10: 31-4-0 (88.6%) -10: 16-19-0 (45.7%)
O/U: 7-27-1 (-5.43, 20.6%) avg total: 54.0 +6: 5-30-0 (14.3%) -6: 18-17-0 (51.4%) +10: 4-31-0 (11.4%) -10: 22-12-1 (64.7%)

Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 38.0 160.9 30.7 19.2 215.9 1.2 7.3 8.2 5.3 7.6 28.5
Opp 36.6 125.4 32.6 18.4 218.1 1.8 5.6 4.8 3.9 5.6 20.0

Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Jan 01, 2016 Friday 18 2015 OHST NOTD neutral -6.5 53.5 0
Jan 01, 2016 Friday 18 2015 STAN IOWA neutral -6.5 53.0 0
Dec 30, 2015 Wednesday 18 2015 MSST NCST neutral -5.5 59.0 0
Dec 30, 2015 Wednesday 18 2015 USC WIS neutral -3.0 50.5 0
Dec 29, 2015 Tuesday 18 2015 COST NEV neutral -3.0 56.0 0
Dec 28, 2015 Monday 17 2015 MIN CMCH neutral -5.5 49.5 0
Dec 28, 2015 Monday 17 2015 NAVY PIT home -3.5 56.0 0
Dec 26, 2015 Saturday 17 2015 UCLA NEB neutral -3.5 61.0 0
Dec 26, 2015 Saturday 17 2015 WAST MIAF neutral -3.0 62.5 0
Dec 24, 2015 Thursday 17 2015 WMCH MTEN neutral -3.0 63.5 0
Dec 22, 2015 Tuesday 17 2015 UTST AKRON neutral -6.5 48.5 0
Dec 19, 2015 Saturday 16 2015 SJST GAST neutral -3.0 56.0

Seems like whoever comes up with these systems is usually off by a few......thanks for clearing everything up!

rolltide · Dec 16, 2015

The Computer Group said:
Okay, so what I think you're saying is, the team with less rushes per game but more yards per game? Or the team that has less rushing yards per game?

no

i'm saying IF (and this is always a big if) you can find a bowl team that outrushes their opponent in the game despite having a lower RYPG average you can expect to win 6 out of 7 ATS.

so for Saturday if Ohio, Georgia State, La Tech, Arizona, or BYU ends the game with more rushing yards than opponent they have an 85% chance of covering the game historically.

IF those teams fail to outrush their opponent they have a 31.7% chance of covering the game

TheComputerGroup · Dec 16, 2015

rolltide said:
no

i'm saying IF (and this is always a big if) you can find a bowl team that outrushes their opponent in the game despite having a lower RYPG average you can expect to win 6 out of 7 ATS.

so for Saturday if Ohio, Georgia State, La Tech, Arizona, or BYU ends the game with more rushing yards than opponent they have an 85% chance of covering the game historically.

IF those teams fail to outrush their opponent they have a 31.7% chance of covering the game

Oh, got it! That's like trying to predict turnovers, team with least turnovers has a great win %

I wonder if there is anything that sticks out that can give you that predictive tool to figure out if one team with out rush the other.

rolltide · Dec 16, 2015

The Computer Group said:
Oh, got it! That's like trying to predict turnovers, team with least turnovers has a great win %

I wonder if there is anything that sticks out that can give you that predictive tool to figure out if one team with out rush the other.

conference sticks out.

MAC, Pac12, MtnW, or Big12 teams that came into game with less rushing yards/game and got outrushed are 12-56 ATS (17%) ... all other conferences are >30% with SEC and ACC 40%.

similarly from an "opponent's conference" perspective if a team with worse rushing game got outrushed by Pac12 or Big12 team they are 5-27 ATS (16%)

it might not help with figuring out which team will have more rushing yards but at least you know if Ohio (MAC team) gets outrushed by App State or Arizona (P12) gets outrushed by New Mexico they are not going to cover.

i'll play around with some other calcs and see if i can't find some predictors

rolltide · Dec 16, 2015

here you go.... non-WAC/MWC Decmber bowl teams with at least 7 wins that came into the game with worse rushing yards and time of possession are 10-40 ATS and 0-13 ATS L13

of those 50 teams the 40 that got outrushed in the bowl game went 5-35 ATS

month = 12 and week > 16 and wins > 6 and game type = BG and tA(rushing yards) < otA(rushing yards) and otA(time of possession) > (time of possession) and o:streak > -2 and streak > -2 and (conference = WAC or conference = MWC) = False

SU:	18-32-0 (-5.80, 36.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	10-40-0 (-6.44, 20.0%)	avg line: -0.6	+6: 25-24-1 (51.0%)	-6: 6-44-0 (12.0%)	+10: 31-18-1 (63.3%)	-10: 4-46-0 (8.0%)
O/U:	29-21-0 (-0.16, 58.0%)	avg total: 55.2	+6: 17-33-0 (34.0%)	-6: 32-18-0 (64.0%)	+10: 12-37-1 (24.5%)	-10: 35-14-1 (71.4%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	31.4	98.3	36.1	19.9	244.8	2.4	4.8	7.5	5.6	6.6	24.6
Opp	45.2	201.8	27.9	17.0	193.3	2.0	8.8	9.1	5.9	6.4	30.4

Date	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total	ot
Dec 31, 2015	Thursday	18	2015	FLST	HOU	neutral	-7.0	54.5	0
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	MEM	AUB	neutral	2.5	63.5	0
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	MSST	NCST	neutral	-5.5	59.0	0
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	LOU	TXAM	neutral	1.0	50.5	0
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	WIS	USC	neutral	3.0	50.5	0
Dec 29, 2015	Tuesday	18	2015	TXT	LSU	neutral	7.0	73.0	0
Dec 28, 2015	Monday	17	2015	CMCH	MIN	neutral	5.5	49.5	0
Dec 28, 2015	Monday	17	2015	PIT	NAVY	away	3.5	56.0	0
Dec 26, 2015	Saturday	17	2015	DUKE	IND	neutral	2.0	67.0	0
Dec 26, 2015	Saturday	17	2015	WAST	MIAF	neutral	-3.0	62.5	0
Dec 24, 2015	Thursday	17	2015	CIN	SDST	neutral	-1.5	57.0	0
Dec 24, 2015	Thursday	17	2015	MTEN	WMCH	neutral	3.0	63.5	0
Dec 23, 2015	Wednesday	17	2015	BOWL	GSOU	neutral	-7.5	66.0	0
Dec 22, 2015	Tuesday	17	2015	TEM	TOL	neutral	-1.5	51.5

rolltide · Dec 16, 2015

UNDER with a 9-win team has at least 4 losses (SoMiss/Wash under)

wins = 9 and game type = BG and losses > 3 and line < 10

SU:	17-15-0 (3.03, 53.1%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	15-17-0 (1.05, 46.9%)	avg line: -2.0	+6: 19-12-1 (61.3%)	-6: 11-21-0 (34.4%)	+10: 24-8-0 (75.0%)	-10: 9-23-0 (28.1%)
O/U:	3-22-0 (-8.66, 12.0%)	avg total: 54.5	+6: 2-23-0 (8.0%)	-6: 7-18-0 (28.0%)	+10: 1-24-0 (4.0%)	-10: 11-14-0 (44.0%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	35.2	157.9	32.6	18.6	224.5	1.7	6.4	8.1	5.4	6.4	24.9
Opp	34.8	135.0	29.0	16.4	187.1	1.8	4.8	5.2	5.4	3.8	21.9

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Dec 26, 2015		Saturday	17	2015	SMIS	WAS	neutral						8.5	56.0

TheComputerGroup · Dec 16, 2015

This Under in Wash/S Miss game looks solid.......

As for the other games where one team outrushes the other & starting the 4th Q we see that its lopsided, their may be some value in betting live in game on these teams? Sounds logical to assume a live in game would be a high percentage cover/win?

rolltide · Dec 16, 2015

The Computer Group said:
As for the other games where one team outrushes the other & starting the 4th Q we see that its lopsided, their may be some value in betting live in game on these teams? Sounds logical to assume a live in game would be a high percentage cover/win?

.

i'm not following...?

you asked if i could come up with a good pregame predictor that would not have to be guessing which team had more rush yards and came up with a 40-10 ATS one for you in post #154.

to narrow it down some more when those same teams are allowing >18.5 ppg it moves to a 5-35 ATS spot that is on a 1-27 ATS run going into this season...teams that fit this 1-27 are listed on the left

date > 20081228 and month = 12 and week > 16 and wins > 6 and game type = BG and tA(rushing yards) < otA(rushing yards) and otA(time of possession) > (time of possession) and o:streak > -2 and streak > -2 and (conference = WAC or conference = MWC) = False and tA(o

oints) > 18.25 and line > -14

SU:	5-23-0 (-10.61, 17.9%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	1-27-0 (-10.21, 3.6%)	avg line: 0.4	+6: 11-17-0 (39.3%)	-6: 0-28-0 (0.0%)	+10: 15-12-1 (55.6%)	-10: 0-28-0 (0.0%)
O/U:	17-11-0 (-0.29, 60.7%)	avg total: 57.5	+6: 11-17-0 (39.3%)	-6: 18-10-0 (64.3%)	+10: 6-21-1 (22.2%)	-10: 20-8-0 (71.4%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	30.4	94.3	38.0	21.0	256.3	2.6	4.6	8.1	4.8	5.8	23.3
Opp	46.5	217.9	27.3	16.6	195.4	1.8	8.6	10.7	6.6	7.7	33.9

Date	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total	ot
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	MEM	AUB	neutral	2.5	63.5	0
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	MSST	NCST	neutral	-5.5	59.0	0
Dec 30, 2015	Wednesday	18	2015	LOU	TXAM	neutral	1.0	50.5	0
Dec 29, 2015	Tuesday	18	2015	TXT	LSU	neutral	7.0	73.0	0
Dec 28, 2015	Monday	17	2015	CMCH	MIN	neutral	5.5	49.5	0
Dec 28, 2015	Monday	17	2015	PIT	NAVY	away	3.5	56.0	0
Dec 26, 2015	Saturday	17	2015	DUKE	IND	neutral	2.0	67.0	0
Dec 26, 2015	Saturday	17	2015	WAST	MIAF	neutral	-3.0	62.5	0
Dec 24, 2015	Thursday	17	2015	CIN	SDST	neutral	-1.5	57.0	0
Dec 24, 2015	Thursday	17	2015	MTEN	WMCH	neutral	3.0	63.5	0
Dec 23, 2015	Wednesday	17	2015	BOWL	GSOU	neutral	-7.5	66.0	0
Dec 22, 2015	Tuesday	17	2015	TEM	TOL	neutral	-1.5	51.5

ECC · Dec 16, 2015

Thanks Rolltide
kinda disappointing results

TheComputerGroup · Dec 16, 2015

Play Under in a DECEMBER Bowl game if the line is -3 to -6.5 and the total is 45 to 65.5.

Rolltide, that system.was corrected by the person that shared it on another site, just in December game for Unders.......he said he forgot to post just December & that's why it wasn't coming up 1-20.......

TheComputerGroup · Dec 16, 2015

rolltide said:
.

i'm not following...?

you asked if i could come up with a good pregame predictor that would not have to be guessing which team had more rush yards and came up with a 40-10 ATS one for you in post #154.

to narrow it down some more when those same teams are allowing >18.5 ppg it moves to a 5-35 ATS spot that is on a 1-27 ATS run going into this season...teams that fit this 1-27 are listed on the left

date > 20081228 and month = 12 and week > 16 and wins > 6 and game type = BG and tA(rushing yards) < otA(rushing yards) and otA(time of possession) > (time of possession) and o:streak > -2 and streak > -2 and (conference = WAC or conference = MWC) = False and tA(ooints) > 18.25 and line > -14

SU: 5-23-0 (-10.61, 17.9%) Teaser Records
ATS: 1-27-0 (-10.21, 3.6%) avg line: 0.4 +6: 11-17-0 (39.3%) -6: 0-28-0 (0.0%) +10: 15-12-1 (55.6%) -10: 0-28-0 (0.0%)
O/U: 17-11-0 (-0.29, 60.7%) avg total: 57.5 +6: 11-17-0 (39.3%) -6: 18-10-0 (64.3%) +10: 6-21-1 (22.2%) -10: 20-8-0 (71.4%)

Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 30.4 94.3 38.0 21.0 256.3 2.6 4.6 8.1 4.8 5.8 23.3
Opp 46.5 217.9 27.3 16.6 195.4 1.8 8.6 10.7 6.6 7.7 33.9

Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Dec 30, 2015 Wednesday 18 2015 MEM AUB neutral 2.5 63.5 0
Dec 30, 2015 Wednesday 18 2015 MSST NCST neutral -5.5 59.0 0
Dec 30, 2015 Wednesday 18 2015 LOU TXAM neutral 1.0 50.5 0
Dec 29, 2015 Tuesday 18 2015 TXT LSU neutral 7.0 73.0 0
Dec 28, 2015 Monday 17 2015 CMCH MIN neutral 5.5 49.5 0
Dec 28, 2015 Monday 17 2015 PIT NAVY away 3.5 56.0 0
Dec 26, 2015 Saturday 17 2015 DUKE IND neutral 2.0 67.0 0
Dec 26, 2015 Saturday 17 2015 WAST MIAF neutral -3.0 62.5 0
Dec 24, 2015 Thursday 17 2015 CIN SDST neutral -1.5 57.0 0
Dec 24, 2015 Thursday 17 2015 MTEN WMCH neutral 3.0 63.5 0
Dec 23, 2015 Wednesday 17 2015 BOWL GSOU neutral -7.5 66.0 0
Dec 22, 2015 Tuesday 17 2015 TEM TOL neutral -1.5 51.5

Oh, OK, now I understand, thanks for posting the table!

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