2015 NCAA Football Systems

[rolltide]

computer group posted some so figured i would run them for accuracy...

Sys #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 59-36 ATS
- i can't run data ranges without it taking most of the afternoon but i would be really skeptical on this one as there was a 9-game losing streak and are 10-15 ATS since 2011 http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=game+type+%3DBG+and+D+and+11.5%3Eline%3E3.5+and+month%3D12+and+week%3E17+and+season%3E2011&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++


Sys #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 18-1 ATS
- certainly isn't 18-1 but still a solid play-against spot of 34-17 ATS but 2-7 ATS in last 9 http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=streak%3E%3D3+and+ats+streak%3E%3D3+and+p%3Aats+margin%3E2.5+and+op%3AL+and+otA%28o%3Apoints%29%3C%3D27+and+game+type%3DBG+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Sys #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 20-5 ATS
- dbase only goes back maybe 10 years with rushing yards but this is just 5-4 ATS since 2006. http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=wins%3C%3D8+and+month%3D12+and+F+and+tA%28rushing+yards%29%3C%3D121.5+and+otA%28rushing+yards%29%3E%3D140+and+game+type%3DBG+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Sys #4 - Play Against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for SU loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off Win 10<pts. 2-34 ATS
- i get 35-11 ATS so pretty solid results even if it's not 34-2. under is a solid 20-5 as well http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=line%3C%3D6+and+P%3AL+and+P%3Amargin%3C%3D-24+and+game+type%3DBG+and+%28p%3Amargin%3E10+or+p%3Amargin%3C0%29&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Sys #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 18-1 SU, 17-2 ATS
- not many fits for 30+ years but i got 20-2 SU, 17-5 ATS http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=game+type%3DBG+and+rest%3C39+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Apoints%3E%3D46+and+F+and+line%3E%3D-4+and+season%3E1981&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Sys #6 - Play Against FAVS w/less than 8 wins, has at least 20+ days of rest, and are off 3 wins. 1-17 ATS
- i match with the suggested 1-17 ATS spot that colorado state is in http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=game+type%3DBG+and+F+and+wins%3C8+and+streak%3E%3D3+and+rest%3E20+and+season%3E1994&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Sys # 7 - Play On Big 10 teams (not fav of 10+pts or dog of 14+ pts), w/less than 43 days of rest vs Big 12 opp not off conf RF su,ats Win of more than 6pts. 22-6 ATS
- was 15-1 ATS but is 4-6 ATS L10 for a 19-7 ATS spot. http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=game+type%3DBG+and+conference%3DB10+and+%28F+and+line%3C%3D-10%29%3DFalse+and+%28D+and+line%3E%3D14%29%3DFalse+and+rest%3C43+and+o%3Aconference%3DB12+and+%28p%3AC+and+p%3AAFW+and+p%3Aats+margin%3E%3D6%29%3DFalse&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Sys #8- Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 25-53 UNDER
- good one overall. i have it 37-51-1 o/u http://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...o:conference=SEC)=False+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Sys #9- Play Against January Bowl teams (not fav of 4+pts), off 3 ATS Losses vs opp not off SU loss of 18+ 3-14 SU,ATS
- this one had 14 straight ATS losses and now 4 straight ATS wins http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=month%3D1+and+game+type%3DBG+and+line%3E%3D-3.5+and+ats+streak%3C%3D-3+and+op%3Amargin%3E-18&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Sys #10- Play Against a December bowl team if .666< as favs 13>. 0-13 ATS
- no idea. i have this 3-7-1 L30 years http://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...6.67+and+F+and+line<=-13&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Sys #11- Play Favs on Moneyline if they have worse SU record. 44-13 SU
- i have this 34-24 SU in last 58 games with 3-9 SU for these favs since Jan 1 bowls of 2014 http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=game+type+%3D+BG+and+F+and+WP%3Co%3AWP+and+date%3E20081230&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Sys #12- Play Against Favs allowing 17.4>ppg off 3-0 SU,ATS L3, off ATS W of 3> vs conf opp and this opp not off W 17>... 21-3 ATS
- seems a good one but nothing fits this year. 23-6 ATS http://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...nd+p:C++and+op:margin<17&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Sys #13- Bowls dogs from 12/15 to 12/31 that average 200>rush/gm are 23-7 ATS vs opp off BB W and don't avg 200>rush/gm
- lots of fits but i have it at 10-8 ATS http://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...d+otA(rushing+yards)<200&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Sys #14- AP Pre-Season #1 are 5-2 SU,ATS L7 bowls
- cant run this in dbase

 

[TheComputerGroup]

So what plays have you come up with from the systems I posted Roll tide?

 

[rolltide]

So what plays have you come up with from the systems I posted Roll tide?

well i wouldnt consider Sys 1, 3, 9, 10, 11, or 13 at all and cannot verify 14. Also sys 7 & 12 have nothing for 2015... so of the remaining:


sys 2 = LaTech, Utah State
sys 4 = LaTech and under
sys 5 = Indiana
sys 6 = Nevada
sys 8 = under in LaTech, SJSU, AppSt, Wky, UtahSt, Temple, NoIll, BGSU, WMich, Cincy, Marsh, and Nevada games
sys 9 = Georgia, Ole Miss

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Thanks Roll tide, will use as a tool when capping these games.......I know Understand do come in a lot early in the bowls.

 

[doogieboy]

RT , if your time permits, can u see what you can find out about bowl totals 63 1/2 or above. I think they go over at a nice rate.
Thanks in advance!!

 

[rolltide]

RT , if your time permits, can u see what you can find out about bowl totals 63 1/2 or above. I think they go over at a nice rate.
Thanks in advance!!

game type = BG and total > 63 and line >= 0
SU: 22-43-0 (-6.28, 33.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 34-31-0 (0.14, 52.3%) avg line: 6.4 +6: 42-23-0 (64.6%) -6: 23-41-1 (35.9%) +10: 46-18-1 (71.9%) -10: 14-48-3 (22.6%) O/U: 32-32-1 (-0.62, 50.0%) avg total: 69.2 +6: 23-42-0 (35.4%) -6: 40-25-0 (61.5%) +10: 19-46-0 (29.2%) -10: 43-22-0 (66.2%)

 

[Acebb]

Sys #4 - Play Against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for SU loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off Win 10<pts. 2-34 ATS

===
Doesn't going against Wisconsin and WVU fit this too?

 

[rolltide]

Sys #4 - Play Against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for SU loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off Win 10<pts. 2-34 ATS

===
Doesn't going against Wisconsin and WVU fit this too?

cmon man. i posted the link to the query right there in the thread. just click on the damn thing or plug it into a browser.

http://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...margin>10+or+p:margin<0)&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[Acebb]

cmon man. i posted the link to the query right there in the thread. just click on the damn thing or plug it into a browser.

http://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...margin>10+or+p:margin<0)&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Is "loss in last matchup" limited? Because WISC lost to USC the last time they played 38-3. Is it because the DB doesn't go back to the 1960's?

 

[Acebb]

sys 2 = LaTech, Utah State

This can't be right.

"Sys #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 18-1 ATS
- certainly isn't 18-1 but still a solid play-against spot of 34-17 ATS but 2-7 ATS in last 9"

-- LA Tech & Utah State both lost their last game SU/ ATS and LA Tech lost 2 in a row ATS to end the year while Utah state lost 4 in a row ATS to end the year.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

This can't be right.

"Sys #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 18-1 ATS
- certainly isn't 18-1 but still a solid play-against spot of 34-17 ATS but 2-7 ATS in last 9"
-- LA Tech & Utah State both lost their last game SU/ ATS and LA Tech lost 2 in a row ATS to end the year while Utah state lost 4 in a row ATS to end the year.

Are both of these teams favs?

 

[rolltide]

This can't be right.

"Sys #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 18-1 ATS
- certainly isn't 18-1 but still a solid play-against spot of 34-17 ATS but 2-7 ATS in last 9"

-- LA Tech & Utah State both lost their last game SU/ ATS and LA Tech lost 2 in a row ATS to end the year while Utah state lost 4 in a row ATS to end the year.

the plays are on lt and usu. i don't know why you are struggling with the meaning of "play against favs"?

i think i'm done posting in my own thread....

wtf is wrong with you people?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

the plays are on lt and usu. i don't know why you are struggling with the meaning of "play against favs"?

i think i'm done posting in my own thread....

wtf is wrong with you people?

Lol Rolltide .......I think people are expecting to see the dogs posted next to the system since it saysgo against the favs.

 

[Acebb]

the plays are on lt and usu. i don't know why you are struggling with the meaning of "play against favs"?

i think i'm done posting in my own thread....

wtf is wrong with you people?

Huh?

La Tech is a fav but is definitely NOT 3-0 SU, ATS LAST THREE GAMES.

Same for Utah State who are definitely not 3-0 SU/ATS last 3 games.

 

[Acebb]

Are both of these teams favs?

Yes, but neither team actually fits the system as described. LA Tech lost their last game of the year SU.

Lol Rolltide .......I think people are expecting to see the dogs posted next to the system since it saysgo against the favs.

No, I was expecting to see a favorite that was 3-0 SU/ATS in last 3 games. Neither of which are LA Tech or Utah State.

 

[Acebb]

the plays are on lt and usu. i don't know why you are struggling with the meaning of "play against favs"?

i think i'm done posting in my own thread....

wtf is wrong with you people?

"Play against Favs" (ok LA Tech, Utah State are favorites)

"That are 3-0 SU/ATS Last 3 games" (La Tech lost SU/ATS their last game, lost ATS their last 2 games; Utah State lost last game SU/Lost last 4 games ATS)

"covered by 3 or more points last game" (Neither Utah State or LA Tech covered by 3 points in their last game, in fact Utah State hasn't covered ATS since October 30th.

So please explain how LA Tech & Utah state fit or plays are on them?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

"Play against Favs" (ok LA Tech, Utah State are favorites)

"That are 3-0 SU/ATS Last 3 games" (La Tech lost SU/ATS their last game, lost ATS their last 2 games; Utah State lost last game SU/Lost last 4 games ATS)

"covered by 3 or more points last game" (Neither Utah State or LA Tech covered by 3 points in their last game, in fact Utah State hasn't covered ATS since October 30th.

So please explain how LA Tech & Utah state fit or plays are on them?

LA Tech & Utah St are NOT plays because they don'tfit the system......the place iI copied & pasted the systems from were way off & had all kinds of stuff messed up.

Rolltide cleaned everything up & ran the systems & got the correct SU & ATS numbers ........

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Or maybe I'm retarded & can't read system #2......but I don't think they would be plays!

 

[rolltide]

there is no need to have just favs in that system. works just fine with dogs up to +7. yes favs did better in overall percentage 19-3 ATS, but nothing wrong with a 31-10 ATS (12-7 ATS for dogs). If you only want favs then there are no fits for 2015 season

still don't understand why this ace guy doesn't understand the words PLAY AGAINST. you aren't lining up Utah St as the team that is on a 3 games SUATS streak. hno: (seriously, wtf?)

last question i'm answering ... if you don't understand how to read and interpret these that is not my concern. seriously, this isn't even my shit...i was just assisting on validating computer group's finding

in this system the 31-10 ATS historical plays are most certainly on Utah St and La Tech. period, end of story, fini

streak >= 3 and ats streak >= 3 and p:ats margin > 2.5 and op:L and otA(ooints) <= 27 and game type = BG and line < 7
SU: 13-28-0 (-7.27, 31.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 10-31-0 (-8.13, 24.4%) avg line: -0.9 +6: 20-19-2 (51.3%) -6: 6-35-0 (14.6%) +10: 23-18-0 (56.1%) -10: 5-36-0 (12.2%) O/U: 8-4-0 (8.62, 66.7%) avg total: 55.0 +6: 7-5-0 (58.3%) -6: 8-3-1 (72.7%) +10: 7-5-0 (58.3%) -10: 10-2-0 (83.3%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 40.5 176.0 30.8 17.7 221.4 1.7 7.8 12.7 5.7 5.1 24.4 Opp 36.2 141.7 35.6 19.8 284.9 1.8 5.5 10.2 4.8 12.0 31.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Dec 22, 2015 Tuesday 17 2015 AKRON UTST neutral 6.5 48.5 0 Dec 19, 2015 Saturday 16 2015 AKST LTCH neutral 2.0 67.0

 

[rolltide]

Lol Rolltide .......I think people are expecting to see the dogs posted next to the system since it saysgo against the favs.

well i was expecting to see ATS numbers in the same hemisphere as what you posted and i adapted....

simple enough. if you only want to play against favs in that one, play nothing. if you want to open it to playing against dogs of a TD or less, you've got a couple fits going against akr and arkst.