2014 Preakness Thoughts

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CALIFORNIA CHROME IS GONNA BE 2-5..HOW SHOULD I BET THIS RACE?..I WILL SINGLE CHROME IN THE PICK 4.. PROBABLY PLAY SOME TRIFECTA'S AND SUPERS..KEYING CHROME..NOT GONNA PAY MUCH UNLESS HE GETS BEAT..I AM ROOTING FOR HIM AND THE TRIPLE CROWN...GL YoDS

play the pick 5 instead over 100k in the jackpot kitty but mandatory payout preakness day
 

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California Chrome all the way in the Preakness; probably at about 4/5.


I agree......with only 9 others in the race, I will jump all over 4-5. Hopefully I can get that price & will even take 3-5 but can not go lower than 1-2.

4-5 is a gift......only horse he has to beat IMO is Social Inclusion. Everyone else is running for 2nd or 3rd.

Social Inclusions trainer said, my horse was 1st at Pimlico this week & I'm hoping he crosses the finish line 1st as well.....lol!

I think SI's trainer & owner are pissed they didn't sell to receive 10 million.

How about the old trainers exacta? Chromes Art Sherman is 77 & Social Inclusions trainer is 85..........

Chrome with Social Inclusion? SI tries to wire the field but Chrome catches & passes him. I like Kid Cruz for exacta & triple but the only thing I don't like about him are his slow times in every race he's won.
 

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Bayern has raced with 118 pounds past 3 races & the longest he's ran was 1 1/8 in the Ark derby & came in 3rd by 5 1/4 lengths & now he's going 1 3/6 & carrying 126 pounds, 8 more than when he ran in the Ark.......he will be going backwards at thetop of the stretch.
 

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i agree 4/5 is a gift. tvg did a derby promo it wasnt a lot but for a small player like myself it was nice. they are gonna do another one for the preakness where you can increase your payout, they will reveal it tomorrow afternoon. i wasnt even going to look at betting this race but if this horse goes off at 4-5 (which i highly doubt) and add in the tvg promo then ill bet CC as beer money for the night b/c im sure they are once again going to cap what you can bet on the race for the promotion.
 

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139th Preakness Post Position Draw
1 Dynamic Impact ML 12-1
2 General A Rod ML 15-1
3 California Chrome ML 3-5
4 Ring Weekend ML 20-1
5 Bayern ML 10-1
6 Ria Antonia ML 30-1
7 Kid Cruz ML 20-1
8 Social Inclusion ML 5-1
9 Pablo Del Monte ML 20-1
10 Ride on Curlin ML 10-1



Source: HRTVonline
 

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This is a chess game now... ALL the speed will be on the outside of California Chrome. V E is going to have to work out a trouble free trip.
 

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Here are the early ML odds for the preakness:

Chrome 4-5
Social Inclusion 6-1
Ride Curlin 12-1
Bayern 12-1
Dynamic Impact 15-1
Kid Cruz 15-1
General Rod 20-1
Pablo Monte 25-1
Ring Weekend 25-1
Ria Antonia 30-1


I'm loving Kid Cruz at 15-1 in the exacta & triple.......

Wishful thinking that CC will be 4-5. He will be 2-5 at best maybe even 1-5. I agree though that he ie betable at 4-5, any lower you just cant bet him on the win end IMO
 

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I hope he doesn't go off 1-5........I don't really like Chromespost position but with his versatility & tactical speed, it won't be a problem.

Most of the speed in the derby was on the outside of him as well.

The horse that will be challenged the most is Social Inclusion coming from the 8 hole & speed on the inside of him. He's gonna have to shoot out like a canon.
 

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I hope he doesn't go off 1-5........I don't really like Chromespost position but with his versatility & tactical speed, it won't be a problem.

Most of the speed in the derby was on the outside of him as well.

The horse that will be challenged the most is Social Inclusion coming from the 8 hole & speed on the inside of him. He's gonna have to shoot out like a canon.

I see social inclusion and bayern setting a fairly hot pace here with some others being close mainly Ring weekend and Pablo. This is not a race to make money on. I will probably bet a few small tri's and exactas tossing CC hoping for a miracle.

I like Ride on Curlin to put up a much better effort here. Calvin had a ridiculous ride on him in the derby taking him to the rail immediately even though the horse has tactical speed and they took Calvin off for Rosario which is a huge upgrade.

Some food for thought here. Early leaders and pressers have only won 21 main track races at Pimlico while stalkers and closers have won 41. Also during the same period, 39 of the 61 winners have come at least 3 wide down the stretch. With CC drawing post 3 and with all the speed to his outside, he MIGHT get trapped in on the rail and have to come thru the rail to win which is not course condusive. Also post 1-4 at the preakness distance at Pimlico have produced 0 winners out of 20 horses. Im probably stretching here but its worth a shot. Here is the link to the article i got those stats from. GL

http://www.drf.com/news/pimlico-inside-not-place-be
 

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What do you mean by 0 for 20 out of 20 horses that ran? Are you saying past 20 years of the Preakness?

If so, #4 post won in 2000 & 2007

Posts 1, 2 & 3 havent won at all past 20 years.......I know Chrome has broken several strong trends in the derby & he's good enough to break NY here in the Preakness.......
 

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this race has exacta box 3-8-10 written all over it.....hell even if CC doesnt fire the 3 could hold on and the 10 will be closing down the stretch, that could be the exacta. i think the post draw and a smaller field really helps throwing out complete tosses much easier in this race. (ie the 1/2/6/7) i have nothing to back up this statement but i think ride on curlin has a better effort in this race and hits the board. gotta see what others have to say but i think the PP draw helped a bit today i think one can cut down their ticket and get a shot at a decent exotic ticket. i still think CC wins this race rather easily and i hope he does.
 

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How about an exacta with the 2 oldest trainers, Chrome & Social Inclusion......

My cousin loves ROC for 2nd......I don't like him much.
 

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Read between the lines in the link to the article shown below................
Can not imagine a thoroughbred race horse owner that has a chance to become the next owner of THE TRIPLE CROWN WINNER not attending the race(s)..... "Plane fare not in their budget" .... gee whiz they just won THE KENTUCKY DERBY ....

Thinking now they feel the C C needs more time between races.... also noticed something in the pictures of him ... " four white hoofs " is what was stated...but now I cannot find the picture.


http://ctba.com/martins-to-skip-preakness/
 

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What do you mean by 0 for 20 out of 20 horses that ran? Are you saying past 20 years of the Preakness?

If so, #4 post won in 2000 & 2007

Posts 1, 2 & 3 havent won at all past 20 years.......I know Chrome has broken several strong trends in the derby & he's good enough to break NY here in the Preakness.......

It's since 2011 there have been 20 starters in posts 1-4 that haven't won at 1 3/16 mile trip.

"At the ongoing meet, posts 3-7 have been the sweet spot in routes, almost all of which have been contested at 1 1/16 miles. Taking a longer view, an inside draw has spelled doom at the Preakness’s 1 3/16-mile trip. In the last 10 years, posts 1 and 2 have combined to go 0 for 34 at the distance; by comparison, posts 12 and 13 are 2 for 8.
Since 2011, posts 1-4 have produced no winners from 20 starters at the Preakness trip, while posts 5-9 are 5 for 22."
 

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Read between the lines in the link to the article shown below................
Can not imagine a thoroughbred race horse owner that has a chance to become the next owner of THE TRIPLE CROWN WINNER not attending the race(s)..... "Plane fare not in their budget" .... gee whiz they just won THE KENTUCKY DERBY ....

Thinking now they feel the C C needs more time between races.... also noticed something in the pictures of him ... " four white hoofs " is what was stated...but now I cannot find the picture.


http://ctba.com/martins-to-skip-preakness/


When the term down to earth people is mentioned, that would be these people. Yes, it would be nice to watch the Preakness live but I'm sure they were overwhelmed physically & mentally at Churchill......

Not everyone take take the grueling traveling, etc....every 2 weeks.

The Martins have a business to take care of & before this horse came along, it was their life & still is. If you have ever owned a business, you would know you just pick up & go.

IMO, they ate confident knowing Chrome wins & will be in Belmont.......so the 2nd jewel is a break for them knowing what kind of chaotic events will be waiting for them in NY, especially if he wins the triple crown.

Also, the Martins don't show up on any interviews on ESPN like Coburn has with the jockey & trainer.

Coburn represents the owners in front of the camera & he will be in Baltimore.

Now if Coburn was also staying in Cali, then I would be worried.

Kind of reminds me of Secretariats owner, she attended all 3 jewels but her husband & kids didn't show up for the derby & Preakness, they were all there for the Belmont tho. (No comparison in horses tho, lol)
 
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the dude abides
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THIS WAS WRITTEN A FEW POSTS BACK......................................................

also noticed something in the pictures of him ... " four white hoofs "

IS THIS GOOD????

BAD???

THOUGHT I KNEW MOST EVERYTHING ABOUT THE PONIES BUT iVE NEVER COME ACROSS THIS.

WHITE HOOFS & A BLISTERED THROAT...??? A WINNING COMBINATION???
 

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